(5 months, 2 weeks ago)
Commons ChamberAs this is day four of our Budget debate, much has already been said, so I will restrict my remarks to a few general comments before addressing some specific areas.
This has been a much more wide-ranging Budget than most commentators have noted, but the most positive thing that jumped out at me from all the data is the upgrading of growth forecasts. I completely recognise that economic forecasting has not been easy with all the uncertainty from the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, but I think our economy is stronger than most forecasters estimate and is regularly underestimated.
The upward revisions to the OBR forecast are large, too, with growth up by 0.5 percentage points in the months since the autumn statement. The recently published business surveys are also heading in the right direction, all indicating increasing confidence. Indeed, the main message I receive from businesses in Harrogate and Knaresborough is how hard it is to fill vacancies. The local unemployment rate, announced today, is 1.9%, which is a remarkably low figure, but it is matched in other parts of our country.
The growth in employment is a key reason our economy has been resilient. There are over 4 million more people on payrolls than there were in 2010, which is a significant achievement. Unemployment has been halved, and there are 1 million more businesses in the UK than in 2010.
As my right hon. Friend the Chief Secretary to the Treasury said in her opening remarks, the UK’s growth has outperformed that of the other major European economies—Germany, France and Italy—and is set to do so for the next five years, but our productivity has lagged badly. Indeed, the “Economic Indicators” report published by the House of Commons Library last month shows that UK productivity lags German productivity by 16%, which is a very significant gap, yet we are still outgrowing Germany. That raises the question of what the impact would be on growth if we kept what is driving our economy while addressing the productivity gap.
I am, therefore, pleased to see the Budget’s focus on productivity in both the private and public sectors, which I pursued as a Minister, particularly in the Treasury—once a Treasury Minister always a Treasury Minister—but we should define what it is. Productivity is not about working harder; it is about working smarter so that there is more output from each hour worked, not more hours worked.
The best way to drive productivity is with investment. Another encouraging stat in the Budget is that business investment has risen to 10.6% of GDP and is continuing to grow, which is very positive. It is how our future wealth will be created, and it is also a 14% increase compared with the level of investment under Labour. With GDP growth creating a bigger economy and investment taking a bigger slice, the budget involved is measured in the tens of billions. The permanent expensing announced in the autumn statement is a huge factor, and I strongly welcome the commitment to extending it to leasing. This is all about making the UK more competitive and an even better place to invest and grow a business.
One area that has not received the attention it deserves over a number of years is public sector productivity The delivery of good public services requires several components. One of them is budget, as the total amount spent matters, but it is not just the total amount spent. It is also about how well the money is spent.
There have been huge increases in public spending, so we need to ensure transparency and accountability. We also need to ensure that funds are directed to where there is the greatest return and the greatest need, and that taxpayers achieve value for their money. There is plenty to be done on that, particularly on infrastructure, where the Government are investing so heavily—that is a different speech, but I refer the House to the excellent work of the all-party parliamentary group on infrastructure, which I coincidentally chair.
It also requires the Government to make the right policy choices. For example, there is a less than 2% difference in per pupil funding between England and Wales, but English schools are rising up the international league tables for maths and science, and we are the best in the west for reading. Wales is sadly going down the league tables, and it is now ranked in the mid-30s. The financial difference is a world away from the ranking difference, and it comes down to policy choices.
The hon. Gentleman is talking about education outcomes. I do not know whether he saw “Newsnight” last night, but a teacher in the city of Paisley in Scotland linked bad behaviour in the classroom to hunger. The teacher also spoke about the difficulty of getting good educational outcomes amid poverty. Is it not a fact that Department for Work and Pensions policies that keep families in poverty, including the two-child cap, add considerably to the problems in Wales? It is a matter of poverty, not education.
I did not see “Newsnight” last night, as I was here until very late. I was working away, as ever. Our benefits system has not held back the educational progress being made in England so, without having seen the programme, I suspect that other factors are involved.
The productivity of our public services remains below pre-pandemic levels, which suggests that the full value of budget increases is not being realised. It was, therefore, good to hear the announcement of a public sector productivity plan in the Budget. This important initiative has the potential to be a game changer. The National Audit Office suggests that a 5% increase in productivity is equivalent to a £20 billion budget increase.
The Budget detailed investment to upgrade IT in both the justice system and the NHS. The Chancellor revealed that 13 million hours are lost by doctors and nurses to outdated IT. The sheer scale of that is phenomenal, but not in a good way.
Governments of all colours have struggled with NHS IT for years, but the world is digitising. AI will change things even further and faster, and it is right to embrace these changes and secure the benefits they will bring. It is not just about the systems but about the processes used, and there is an attitudinal element as well. We have to think about how output will be achieved. In the world of government in the UK we tend to measure, then trumpet, inputs rather than outputs. That does not happen in the private sector. Moving that thinking into the policy and delivery teams so that they think more about outputs is critical in the longer term.
The most encouraging parts of the Budget tackle investment and productivity. Progress on those will create more wealth and better health for our future, which is why I will be supporting this Budget.
I have a feeling it might be helpful for me to put the clock on Members. We will start with an eight-minute time limit, after the SNP spokesperson.
(1 year, 2 months ago)
Commons ChamberWe all want interest rates to fall as rapidly as possible. The Bank of England needs to conduct its monetary policy against the target that the Chancellor has set. The Government need to do everything we can to try to reduce the level of debt by controlling our spending, even when that creates difficult decisions for us to make. We will do that so that the day when interest rates fall comes more quickly. In the meantime, this Government are trying to shield households from the pressures of the cost of living, which is why we have deployed that £94 billion this year and last.
Does my hon. Friend see any consistency in the Opposition’s analysis that suggests that the primary cause for interest rate rises is unfunded borrowing, while making significant unfunded borrowing pledges themselves? Will he continue his focus on fiscal discipline and ensure that Government support is targeted at those who need it most in this period of astonishing international instability?
My hon. Friend is absolutely right: the last thing that the economy needs at the moment is any party coming forward with more unfunded spending cuts. It is why the Institute for Fiscal Studies has raised concerns about an increase in interest rates and inflation if Labour were to come to power and spend an additional £28 billion, which I believe even the shadow Chancellor herself has confessed would be reckless.
(1 year, 5 months ago)
Commons ChamberHow this bank is run going forward is a matter for HSBC. However, HSBC is a prodigiously successful global institution that has bought SVB on the back of a desire to grow and support that sector, and it sees that this Government are firmly on the side of that sector. We see the aspiration and the opportunity now that we have taken back control from Brussels, and we are going to make an enormous success out of our tech and life sciences sectors; we are on their side.
I welcome the Minister’s statement, and I congratulate him and all those who have worked to resolve this matter so quickly. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will have left its customers worried about managing their cashflows; obviously, cashflow problems cause the majority of businesses to fail. In his statement, he mentioned that customers would continue to have access to their deposits. Will that be seamless and continue right away, so that business continuity is safeguarded?
I thank my hon. Friend and I again pay tribute to the hardworking officials from the Treasury and the regulators, and to my colleagues across Government, who pulled together rapidly to deliver this solution. There may be teething issues as the integration takes place, but having spoken to HSBC and the management of SVB UK, they are open for business today and serving their clients. That is the outcome that the Prime Minister and Chancellor were absolutely right to seek in time for this morning’s opening of business.
(1 year, 6 months ago)
Commons ChamberI would be happy to meet the hon. Lady to talk about the challenges her constituents face. In its information pack about the closure, Barclays revealed that only 22 customers use the branch regularly, and that 92% of users are able to fulfil their services through other means.
The work to deliver a new banking hub in Knaresborough is progressing so well that we are looking at an opening date in only a few months. Will my hon. Friend come to Knaresborough when the hub is open?
(1 year, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberThe hon. Gentleman makes a good point. To clarify, the draught relief is the new differential duty between the rate applied to alcohol purchased on draught—in other words, in the pub—as opposed to, for example, in the supermarket. This is about creating a level playing field. Small brewers relief is becoming small producers relief, so it extends to cider makers, for example.
As a general point, I have a chart here—you will be pleased to know, Mr Deputy Speaker, that I will not get it out—showing the old rates and the new rates that will come in under the reform, and it is striking how much leaner the new system is. I am more than happy to write to the hon. Gentleman with details of the taper and the technical points. I think he will observe that this is a much simpler system.
I welcome the extension of the duty freeze and am particularly pleased to see the draught relief to support the important on-trade. Can my hon. Friend comment or write to me about the proposals for mergers and acquisitions to absorb production over three years rather than one? Basically, allowing that to happen would facilitate a smoother business transition and smoother ownership in the sector.
Of course, my hon. Friend was an Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, and I should put on record that he did much of the work that led to us being able to deliver these reforms in the first place. On his question about mergers and acquisitions, I am more than happy to meet him and share with him further detail from officials about the matter.
(1 year, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberThe hon. Member speaks incredibly powerfully, and I hear every word she says—[Interruption.] I heard someone shouting, “12 years”. We have actually had the third fastest growth in the G7 over the last 12 years, and that means we are in a better position to fund public services than we would otherwise have been. I will take away what the hon. Member says, and I will write back to her.
I congratulate my right hon. Friend on his statement, and on the important points he has made about the global challenges we are facing, but also on how support will be provided to those who need it most. Can I ask him about capital budgets? There has been some concern in the infrastructure sector that projects may be halted, so I welcome the focus on infrastructure investment as a driver of economic growth and of social and environmental progress. Will he be supporting these plans with skills programmes and apprenticeship programmes to ensure that the sector will deliver them with efficiency?
My hon. Friend knows these issues extremely well, having been a Transport Minister. We need better transport infrastructure, and what we have said today makes that possible, but he is absolutely right that we also need to improve the skills in our economy. We have had a lot of change in our ambitions for skills, with I think a lot of very positive things such as the Augar review, but we need to make sure we deliver them, and that is why I have asked Sir Michael Barber to advise me and the Education Secretary as to what we need to do.
(1 year, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberThe Government have taken decisive action to support millions of households with the energy price guarantee, which caps the cost of energy at £2,500 for the average household. We are also spending £37 billion to support millions of low-income households.
I thank my hon. Friend for his informative question, because it allows me to say that with the energy price guarantee at £2,500, the average saving for consumers across the country—including his constituents in Leigh, for whom he is a formidable advocate—is £700.
I have received correspondence from park home residents about the £400 of support with their bills. I recognise and welcome the measures to limit prices, but these households are seeing their electricity bills go up alongside the cost of their heating oil or gas bottles. Can my right hon. Friend assure me that his Department and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy are working together to get support to park home residents before the end of the year?
I, too, have park home residents in my constituency. It is very important that we treat them fairly and give them the help that we are giving others, so we have set up the energy bills support scheme alternative funding as a way of helping them. It is designed to give them the equivalent of the £400 that we are giving to people with more normal energy consumption patterns. I will write to my hon. Friend with more details.
(1 year, 10 months ago)
Commons ChamberIt is good to see my right hon. Friend in his place. Does he agree that, as well as support for families and businesses with energy bills now, the need for long-term energy resilience is as urgent as ever? Will that be one of his priorities?
It will. It is not just my responsibility, but that of the whole Government. Good government is about fixing long-term issues as well as dealing with short-term crises, and that is definitely an important long-term issue.
(1 year, 11 months ago)
Commons ChamberI thank the hon. Member for Midlothian (Owen Thompson) for securing the debate and allowing other Members to participate, now that we have a little longer for this Adjournment debate.
I will not detain the House long because I have spoken on this issue many times before. I initiated the small brewers relief review as a Treasury Minister, quite some time ago. I did so because during preparation for the 2017 Budget, I spoke with brewers large and small. There is clear affection for the industry across this House; every constituency has examples of businesses that reflect the ingenuity, creativity, enterprise and character of the area. These businesses are deep in the DNA of our country, so a taxation regime that disincentivises the sector needs to be corrected. One of the most depressing conversations I had in the run-up to the 2017 Budget was with a small brewer who said they had stopped their export operation simply because they had reached the top of the threshold for relief. We have a taxation structure that disincentivises activity when we want and need growth, particularly in exports. That is where this proposal came from.
I tried to ensure that we had an industry-wide solution, with the industry coming together, because frankly this has been the source of some dispute. That was not to be—the industry could not come together—but significant work has been done by successive Exchequer Secretaries, resulting in proposals that have brought the industry together and are broadly supported. That is a good thing. This has been a good piece of work, done as part of a broader alcohol review, and I have a couple of points to make to my hon. Friend the Exchequer Secretary.
We need to get on and implement the findings of the review, simply to end the uncertainty that has dogged the sector. The hon. Member for Midlothian and my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Robin Millar) are right to have articulated the challenges and broader business pressures facing the sector, so let us act in the one area we can control and implement the review right away. As I said, this is part of a broader alcohol review, other parts of which have not landed quite as well as the beer category. I urge the Minister not to delay implementing the beer review while work on other parts of the sector is refined. Get on with implementing these findings, because I think it would be a popular move and end uncertainty. I am thinking in particular of activity that will incentivise growth. People are stopping product and market development when they hit a top threshold. The proposals will go a long way to make that problem disappear.
We also have proposals in mergers and acquisition for production to absorbed over three years rather than one, so that businesses can make accommodation for that. That is a good thing. We have seen depressed M&A activity in this sector, because of the historic rules, but the proposals will correct the problem.
I have spoken with local brewers in Harrogate and Knaresborough and beyond in the past few weeks, and the message from them is, “Please get on with it.” We need to create a regulatory taxation platform that encourages growth and corrects the problems that the existing SBR had created, while recognising that, as the hon. Member for Midlothian articulated, it has driven new entrants into the market. We are good on start-ups, but bad on scale-ups—we can correct that by implementing the review.
(2 years, 3 months ago)
Commons ChamberI think that the official Labour party view is that the windfall tax would raise £2 billion. The way we have structured ours means it will in fact raise £5 billion, which is a significant amount of revenue that will help fund the things we have announced today.
I particularly welcome the support that my right hon. Friend is giving to those most impacted by this surge in inflation. As part of his excellent statement, he highlighted supply-side reforms that will be most important in the medium term but will take some time to come through. Could he perhaps give a little more information about those supply-side reforms that he is intending?
My hon. Friend speaks with experience on this matter, given his previous roles.
I will give a couple of examples. One we have touched on, which is energy supply and making sure that we can improve it, but there is also the labour market, which we know is tight. That is why it is important that we move people off welfare and into work and reform high-skill migration. Beyond that, we will go after all opportunities across all sectors where we can deregulate and improve our productive capacity.