(6 years, 5 months ago)
Commons ChamberI am grateful to my right hon. Friend, who has done a great deal of work on this issue. We are absolutely aware of the pressures on the social care system. They are not short-term pressures; they are driven by the demographics of an ageing population. We have to do three things. In the short term, we have provided additional money. In the spring Budget last year, I put in £2 billion of additional support. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government put in another £150 million of social care grant at the local government settlement just a few weeks ago. In the medium term, we have to work to get all authorities meeting the standards of the best. There is excellent practice across the country, but it is not everywhere. The variation in delayed discharges between different authorities is completely unacceptable. In the long term, we are committed to publishing a Green Paper on social care and the future of social care, which we will deliver to the House before the summer recess.
The Chancellor says that forecasts are there to be beaten and I agree with him, so can he explain to me why, since his Budget in November, the OBR has not been able to increase the growth forecast for 2019, 2020, 2021 or 2022? It cannot be the negative impact of Brexit, because the OBR still does not have the information from the Government to be able to forecast that, so what on earth is his excuse?
I will perhaps remind the hon. Lady that the OBR’s autumn report in November was only four months ago and that in the normal course of events one would not expect, in the absence of some shock to the economy, economic forecasts to change very significantly. The front-end forecast has changed, because the outturn for 2017-18 has changed. The OBR forecast growth 0.2% lower than it turned out to be in 2017-18 and that has a knock-through effect, which has increased its growth projection for this year.
(6 years, 5 months ago)
Commons ChamberI thank my right hon. Friend very much indeed for that question. I can of course confirm that we remain entirely committed to the strength of our economy and to supporting businesses up and down the country, not least in our negotiations with the European Union. I have some responsibility for the customs part of the negotiations, and we are committed to making sure that goods and services move as frictionlessly as possible across the boundaries with the EU27 following our departure.
Mr Speaker,
“I believe that the best way forward is for Britain to renegotiate a new relationship with the European Union—one based on an economic partnership involving a customs union and a single market in goods and services.”
Those are not my words, but the words of the Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade on his website. What representations has the Minister had from the Secretary of State in support of our membership of the customs union and single market?
(6 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberAcademic assessments by the Treasury are crucial, but my constituents are reeling from hundreds of job losses at Vauxhall. Last night’s comments by the chief executive officer of Airbus that whatever Brexit we have will be net negative means we are talking again about hundreds of my constituents’ jobs on the line. I plead with the Minister to take this seriously, keep us in the single market and customs union, and keep my constituents in their jobs.
I assure the hon. Lady that I take this very seriously, and the Government’s intention certainly is to negotiate a deep and special partnership on economic and security matters. There is room for positivity; if we look at what GSK, Google and Apple have said, we see that that attitude of positivity and optimism as we look forward is necessary.
(6 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberThe hon. Gentleman raises an important point, and it is one that I largely agree with. It is important that we maintain the existing arrangements that we have been brought into by virtue of our membership of the European customs union, which is exactly why we are in discussions with those countries to ensure that we have appropriate arrangements in place once we leave the EU and its customs union. Over and above that, there will be opportunities to forge trading relationships with other countries around the world, which we are prohibited from doing at present because of our membership of the EU customs union.
My constituents are today dealing with the news of yet more job losses at Vauxhall in Ellesmere Port. We are a place that manufactures, and we want to keep manufacturing, so can the Minister tell me and my constituents exactly what these opportunities are?
The opportunities will be very significant indeed—[Interruption.] If the hon. Lady will allow me, I will attempt to answer her question. Of course our trading relationship with Europe is extremely important, which is why we are having negotiations with our European partners. It is important to us and to them to ensure that we maintain those relationships to the highest degree. However, a growing percentage of our trade is now taking place outside the European Union—certainly more than was the case five or 10 years ago—and the expanding markets of the future are not necessarily going to be the countries that constitute the membership of the European Union. To answer the hon. Lady’s question directly, the opportunities lie out there in China, India, the United States and other countries around the world with which we will be able to forge a freer set of trade agreements than we have been able to contemplate during our membership of the European Union.
(6 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberI entirely disagree. The absolute root cause of it all was not saving enough and having a bad culture of over-reliance on debt. I well remember that back in ’98 and ’99 when Francis Maude was the shadow Chancellor, he kept saying, with regard to the low savings ratio, “We are storing up problems for the future.” At every Budget, no matter how high Labour was in the polls, our shadow Chancellors and shadow spokesmen—people like Howard Flight—would say that the savings ratio was way too low and we were storing up problems for the future. We did warn, we did say it, and we were ignored.
The hon. Gentleman is making the case that people borrowed too much because they were somehow feckless or immoral. [Interruption.] He mentioned the poor savings culture in this country and said that people were unable to save. Actually, is it not the case that the picture has worsened since then, because the simple fact is that wages have been held down and people are now unable to save? How has his party in government fared on the issue that he has raised?
I never talked about fecklessness or being immoral. I was talking about the economic fact that the savings ratio was dangerously low throughout much of the Labour Government’s time in office, and they were warned about it. Labour Members are saying that we never said anything, and that simply is not true.
The hon. Lady seems to think that Labour had good policies on debt. I remember when someone could get a self-certified mortgage, with no proof of income, on an annual percentage rate relating to bad credit, so they could have a history of failing to pay debt. Not only that, but it was interest-only, so they were not even repaying the capital. There was a whole menu of different types of sub-prime such as light-adverse, medium-adverse or heavy-adverse. As I have said before, basically the question was, “Do you have a pulse?”, and then one got a mortgage.
My hon. Friend is making an excellent speech. Given the comments that we heard earlier about recent history, does she agree that the brutal cuts to important children’s services such as those that she describes go completely against the rhetoric with which David Cameron and George Osborne came to this House when they went into government in 2010, after the events we heard described just a moment ago?
As the hon. Gentleman may know, the figure of 0.3% takes a static view of this policy and its effect on house prices. It does not take into account the supply side changes that I have mentioned. As we increase supply, prices will inevitably begin to fall. There is no single solution to this challenge and no magic bullet.
The figures the hon. Gentleman chose to use were, I think, a range between £250,000 and £300,000, and he says there are 15 properties in that category. Of course, stamp duty kicks in at £125,000, so it is the range from £125,000 to £300,000 that we would actually be considering in that example.
First-time buyers are typically more cash-constrained than other buyers, and stamp duty requires cash up front, on top of a deposit and conveyancing fees, for purchases over £125,000. The Government think it is right to reduce the up-front costs that first-time buyers need to pay, giving them an advantage over the rest of the market.
I thank the Minister for giving way, but he simply did not answer the question from my right hon. Friend the Member for Warley (John Spellar), who quite legitimately asked him where the money from this cut is going. The Minister talked about the average gain that will be made. Will he tell us the average benefit to a first-time buyer in the west midlands?
As I say, the average across the piece will be £1,700 per average first-time buyer. I also stated quite clearly that, in every region of the country, there will be those who benefit from this measure.
I am concerned about the lack of impact that financial incentives for first-time buyers appear to be having on encouraging housebuilding. The recent pay-offs for Persimmon Homes executives are surely good evidence that a substantial proportion, if not all, of the Government’s money is going into exceptional profits for private housebuilders, rather than genuinely making homes more affordable. We need to know that any money or tax incentives that the Government put into housing will genuinely help people to achieve the housing they need.
The cost of housing for residents is not just about the building itself, but the costs of running the building. New houses are still being built which make short-term savings for the builders at the cost of a long-term expense for their owners or tenants, and also at a long-term cost to the environment. Ipswich Borough Council had a substantial plan to install solar PV panels on all suitable roofs on its substantial council housing estate. It was all set to go in 2013 when the Government moved the goalposts and blew a hole in the business case. The Government seem to be willing to promise vast sums as guarantees for new nuclear powers stations, but they are not willing to use the extensive potential tax powers at their disposal either to incentivise housebuilders to install photovoltaics in original buildings or to adequately incentivise owners to install them on existing buildings.
Increasing the number of solar panels on the roofs of this country would be one of the most cost-effective ways of generating the electricity we need. It would be more beneficial to the residents of those buildings. It would take effect far sooner than waiting for the construction of nuclear power stations and it would predominantly employ working people and small businesses in this country.
Many of us were hoping that the Government would have found further substantial incentives for solar panels in the Bill. I can only hope that a review of the operation of housing finances and an equality impact assessment of the way the Bill will affect low-paid people might encourage the Government to look again at how they can make housing less expensive for those who live in it.
I want to talk about the cut to stamp duty for first-time buyers, but before I do so I would like to take the opportunity to briefly remind Ministers on the Treasury Bench that in March my constituency suffered a terrible disaster: the gas explosion in New Ferry. The Department for Communities and Local Government currently has Wirral Council’s plan for the rebuild. I trust that, in the context of discussing new housing, Treasury Ministers will look kindly on the plan should it come before them.
I want to argue against the cut to stamp duty and for the Opposition amendment, which calls for a review of the policy, and a review of the place of first-time buyers in the housing market and the supply of housing. My argument against this specific policy is, first, that it looks set to fail against the targets the Government have set themselves; and secondly, that in the current economic context it is simply the wrong policy priority. Perhaps we might consider this policy if we were experiencing the same growth as other countries in Europe or we had dealt with our budget deficit, but even if it was not set to work against what the Government have tried to achieve, it would still be the wrong policy because it is not the country’s priority.
I imagine this policy coming before Treasury Ministers during the Budget preparations and their thinking to themselves, “Well, this might be attractive on the face of it, but ought we not to ask our bevvy of economists here in the Treasury what the likely impact might be?” The hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng) just rolled his eyes at me, and he did so because he knows as well as I do—we have debated it often enough—that the advice from the OBR was entirely predictable.
It was entirely predictable that anyone looking at the policy in the current economic climate would say that we have clear, credible evidence from previous changes to stamp duty that the value of this tax change will accrue not to first-time buyers but to those who already own properties. That is what the OBR says, and it is what advice from the specialists in the Treasury would have told Ministers. I do not know—I have no evidence of this—but I have confidence in the Government Economic Service and I think they would have told Ministers that.
Furthermore, it is very unlikely that the Treasury does not have the full analysis requested by my right hon. Friend the Member for Warley (John Spellar). All Members across the House know in their own minds whether their constituencies will benefit from this, and all members of the Cabinet know whether constituents in their constituencies—which are largely in the south-east of England—will benefit. Those of us who have watched house prices in our constituencies barely grow at all in the past 10 years will know that our constituents will benefit very little from this very expensive tax change.
I am listening carefully to the hon. Lady, because obviously I have a constituency in one of the higher value areas. I am confused. The shadow Minister just said that the stamp duty cut was not appropriate because the right measures were not in place for affordable housing, whereas she seems to be saying that a stamp duty cut is not what she would like to see. Which is it? Does she think that the stamp duty cut should not happen at all? I would like a simple yes or no answer.
I thank the hon. Lady for that intervention, but I have already answered her question. I said that in better economic circumstances this might be something that we might want to do, but it is not a priority for now. I answered her question before she even asked it.
Given what the OBR has said, I ask Ministers once again to look at that and at the evidence. The value of this tax cut will not go to first-time buyers. That is absolutely clear. If Ministers think that they can come back to this House after having a review and persuading the OBR that the Treasury is correct and the OBR is wrong, then fine, we can look at it, but I see no reason to think that, and here is why. When we asked the Chancellor about this measure in the Treasury Committee, he gave the same line as the Minister just gave at the Dispatch Box. He said, “Ah, yes, but the OBR assessment —their model—doesn’t take into account our reforms, which will make a huge difference to the supply of housing.”
Anybody can look at page 28 of the Budget—at the Budget scorecard. This year, the stamp duty land tax cut will cost us £125 million. How much extra will we spend on the housing infrastructure fund? A big fat zero. Next year, 2018-19, the stamp duty land tax cut will cost us a whopping £560 million. How much extra will we spend on the housing infrastructure fund? A big fat zero. In fact, according to the Budget we will not spend anything on extending the housing infrastructure fund until 2019-20, when we will spend £215 million. In the same year, we will spend £585 million on the tax cut. And so it goes on, and on. We are frontloading a tax cut and pushing back spending on housing infrastructure. How can the Chancellor come to this House and say, “Oh no, the OBR has got it all wrong, because we are going to build all these houses and that will sort out the housing market”? Honestly, Mr Owen, I do not know what he is talking about.
Does the hon. Lady not accept that, for a variety of reasons—planning permissions, procurement, or whatever—the capital expenditure cannot be turned on immediately? There is always a delay. It is not a question of “pushing it off”; it is simply a fact of life.
The hon. Gentleman seems to be arguing that it takes a little bit of time for capital expenditure to get going. That is an argument for us to increase capital expenditure now, and wait until we have increased supply to make the tax cut. It is the front-loading of the tax cut versus pushing off our investment until sometime in the future.
In proposing the stamp duty land tax cut, the Government have admitted that they have no further ambitions to rebalance our economy between the regions, and no further ambitions to tackle the disgraceful inequality between different parts of the country. In the north-west and the north-east, house prices have grown barely at all, whereas in the south-west, for example, they have shot up and wages have been held disgracefully low. This policy gives money to those who already have assets. It is a charter for inequality, and if it is ever to be implemented, it should not be implemented now.
The number of children in poverty is due to increase by nearly half a million: there will be 400,000 more children in poverty over the period of this Budget. The Government may say, “That is unfortunate, but benefits have to be frozen, and we need to focus on investment so that we can build our way out of these difficult economic circumstances.” This tax cut, however, is not investment. It is just a revenue cut—a tax giveaway—at a time when we could be ensuring that child poverty does not increase. The two-child policy that the Government have stuck to is an absolute disgrace. It shames our country that we are saying, “If you are the third child in a family, in poverty, the Government have nothing to say and will do nothing to help you.”
If the Tories who are now in power actually believed their rhetoric of compassionate conservativism, they would agree with me that if there were ever a time for this tax cut, it would not be now. Let me leave them with this comment. They may think that they can get on with this, and that they will have decent headlines on the front pages of the newspapers because newspaper editors might like the idea of first-time buyers being able to buy properties that they, perhaps, own. They may think that they will get a fair wind because tax cuts of this kind are popular.
I will tell you what is really unpopular in our country, Mr Owen. As we heard earlier from my hon. Friend the Member for Stalybridge and Hyde (Jonathan Reynolds), what is really unpopular in our country is having to step over rough sleepers while walking home. What is really unpopular in our country is having to watch other parents taking paper into schools because our schools cannot even afford the basic necessities. And what is deeply unpopular in our country is watching the number of food banks grow because jobs do not pay enough.
People will remember that while all that was going on, the Tories were busy cutting stamp duty for people who could afford to buy houses. I do not think they will ever forget that.
I agree with the hon. Member for Witney (Robert Courts) and the right hon. Member for Hemel Hempstead (Sir Mike Penning) about the armed forces allowance. In my experience, as in theirs, the modern member of the armed forces, whether male or female, wants choice. I have nothing against that, but I think that this is the wrong way of providing it. As we heard from my hon. Friend the Member for Stalybridge and Hyde (Jonathan Reynolds), the problem now is that much of our military housing stock was locked into what was a terrible deal for the taxpayer during the last year of the Major Government, who sold most of the housing stock in England.
(6 years, 10 months ago)
Commons ChamberMy hon. Friend raises an important point about complexity, which is why we continue to work with the Office for Tax Simplification to ensure that our tax code is as simple as it can be. But there is no doubt that, in upholding our exemplary record of clamping down on avoidance, evasion and non-compliance— £160 billion of revenue from 2010 to 2015—we make no apologies for having a tax code that works to support our public services.
Some 130,000 small and medium-sized businesses that export to Europe currently do not have to deal with any bureaucracy at our border to do so, but they could face such bureaucracy if the Minister’s colleagues have their way. Does the Minister think that that will be good or less good for British business?
As the hon. Lady knows, we are in the middle of negotiations with our European partners. I am confident that, as the Prime Minister has expressed at every turn, we will secure a good deal for this country. In the context of our borders, that will mean that the situation will be as frictionless as possible, which will be good for trade, our country and our economy.
(7 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberAs the Labour party admits, cancelling student debt would cost £100 billion. The Opposition made that reckless promise, which would see the debt soar, during the election campaign, but now they say it is just an “ambition”. Are they going to say sorry to the people they made their promise to, and are they going to say sorry to the British public for threatening to bankrupt the economy?
Further to the questions asked by my hon. Friends the Members for Wakefield (Mary Creagh) and for Lewisham East (Heidi Alexander), will the Chancellor confirm, as he failed to do before, that the cost to us of Brexit will be as described by my hon. Friends some moments ago?
The hon. Lady, I think, knows that there can be no definitive answer to that question. We do not yet know what the form of our agreement with the European Union will be and we do not yet know what arrangements will be in place for any kind of interim or transition period, so she is speculating. What I can tell her is that the Government are 100% focused on getting the best deal for Britain and delivering it in a way that protects British business and British jobs.
(7 years, 1 month ago)
Commons ChamberIn response to the intervention from the hon. Member for Solihull (Julian Knight), does the shadow Chancellor think that the Tory Brexit mess has been good for confidence in the UK economy, or less good for confidence in the UK economy?
I welcome the opportunity to respond to this debate, to set out our economic record since 2010 and our plans for Britain’s future, and to comment on Labour’s plans for our economy.
This Government have a job to do, and a large part of that job over the next 18 months or so will be focused on securing a Brexit deal that is good for Britain and helps to deliver the strong economy that will underpin our public services, create jobs and support our living standards. Of course our country and our economy face some significant challenges. I shall set out today how we intend to address them. However, we also have within our grasp some significant prizes and we need to ensure that we are able to seize them.
I have listened for the past half hour, as have my right hon. and hon. Friends, to the right hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) talking Britain’s economy down. It is clear that he has, and Labour has, no credible plan for addressing the real challenges this country faces. His solutions, such as they are, would put most of those prizes beyond our reach.
With all due respect to my right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor, does the Chancellor think it is more likely that the trouble we have in the British economy is due to the shadow Chancellor’s words or to the mess the Conservative party has made so far of the Brexit negotiations?
If the hon. Lady bears with me, she will hear how what we have done since 2010 has strengthened the fundamentals of the British economy. If she is asking me whether the decision the British people made last summer to leave the European Union—and the uncertainty that that has inevitably created as we negotiate our way out of the European Union—adds uncertainty to the economic equation, self-evidently it does. That is why we are seeking to progress the negotiations as rapidly as possible to restore certainty for business, investors and citizens as quickly as we possibly can.
Listening to the shadow Chancellor and the Leader of the Opposition reading their election manifesto, it is clear that the Labour party has given up any pretence of a claim to fiscal credibility. Just two years ago, in the 2015 general election, Labour at least pretended that its figures added up. It would pay for its giveaways, so that its plans would not bankrupt the country. Not any more. The current lot are clear that not only would they hike taxes, but they would embark on a massive expansion of borrowing and subject the country to a catastrophic programme of ideologically driven, productivity-sapping, investment-destroying nationalisation on a scale that the country has not seen since the 1970s.
I will be brief, but before I make my very short points, I want to pay tribute to my hon. Friend the Member for Walthamstow (Stella Creasy). She was appropriately named by her parents—she is a star.
I want to make two points about how the Queen’s Speech relates to the economy. First, we have significant challenges ahead, particularly in relation to productivity, so on that I agree with the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The productivity crisis we face is a red flag that demonstrates what Tory economic policy has done to our country. At its heart, it is the cause of our wage crisis. The fact that productivity has flat-lined has meant that people have been unable to earn more. There is a simple route out of the productivity crisis: pay attention to the needs of the economy and do more on skills. The Tories have deeply damaged colleges and further education. The T-levels mentioned in the Queen’s Speech are just a pointless rebrand of an existing system that has already failed further and adult education.
Secondly, we have to take the issue of immigration head on. It was a factor in the general election, but the Queen’s Speech contains nothing to deal with people’s concerns about security. If Conservative Members want to deal with the deficit, they cannot afford their current immigration policy. I say to my own party that the only way to deal with austerity is to accept that immigration is good for this country, not bad. As my hon. Friend the Member for Gower (Tonia Antoniazzi) said, we cannot deny our country’s history. Immigration has made my family and this country strong; I will not be ashamed of it.
(7 years, 5 months ago)
Commons ChamberI absolutely agree with my hon. Friend. It is often the smaller local projects that deliver the greatest benefit. They do not have the same kind of grandstanding possibilities around them and therefore are not always quite as favoured, but they are often the most effective way of intervening. They have another benefit: they can often be delivered very quickly by local levels of government, rather than having to go through many years of planning.
The Chancellor simply did not answer my hon. Friend the Member for Barnsley Central (Dan Jarvis). The UK Government’s funding and investment in London has always far outstripped that for any other region. The OECD says that we have had no regional policy since 2010, so will he answer my hon. Friend? What will happen to investment in the north when Brexit occurs?
We will continue to invest in our economy, and the distribution of that investment will be in accordance with the Government’s priorities. The hon. Lady should look at the industrial strategy paper that we have published and at statements the Government have made, including on the national productivity investment fund we announced in the autumn. We are committed to infrastructure development in all the regions of the UK. It is a key element of our productivity agenda.
(7 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberWe are committed to reducing debt while at the same prioritising investment in high-value infrastructure that will enhance our productivity. Of course, the only way we can pay down debt is to generate a current surplus, which means more tax or less spending. The trajectory that I set out at the autumn statement is the right one for this country in the circumstances. I intend to stick to that and ensure that we get the public finances back into balance as early as possible in the next Parliament.
But the total of UK Government debt owned by foreign investors now sums more than half a trillion pounds for the first time ever. As the value of sterling tumbles, what assessment has the Chancellor made of the risk of the cost of servicing our debt rising unsustainably?
The way it works is that the pricing of new Government debt is determined by the auctions around new issuance, which, clearly, is bought at current exchange rates by foreign purchasers of debt. The hon. Lady makes a good and important point: currency volatility, rather than the actual level of the currency, does introduce an additional dimension for foreign purchasers of UK Government debt. I have said many times that the process that we are embarked on of negotiating our exit from the European Union creates some uncertainty, some of which we have seen manifesting itself in the currency markets. The sooner we can get through that period of uncertainty and have clarity about our future relationships with the European Union, the better for markets, business and people in this country. The purpose of the speech that the Prime Minister is making right now is to start to give some clarity to the situation.