The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (Pat McFadden)
The right hon. Member for Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt) has confirmed that this is his last appearance at the Dispatch Box, at least in his current guise, so I begin by thanking him for his service to government and to the country. He and I have something in common: we both inherited an awful mess from our predecessors. He was appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer as the repair man—the adult in the room—and was meant to sort things out after the disaster left by his predecessor. He was supposed to be the antidote to Liz Truss, but in recent days, he has become an ally of Liz Truss, united with her in attacking the OBR. He was brought in to praise the economic institutions, but he has ended up condemning them. However, he cannot hide from the verdict: the OBR has confirmed that the previous Government hid billions of pounds of pressures that they knew about, and the Treasury has given us a full picture of precisely what those pressures added up to.
Alicia Kearns (Rutland and Stamford) (Con)
The right hon. Gentleman states that a full breakdown was provided by the Treasury yesterday, but that is just not true. In fact, the chair of the OBR said on “Sky News” last night:
“Nothing in our review was a legitimisation of that £22 billion”
claim. That was him making it very clear that the OBR does not support and has not endorsed the claim in the Treasury report. Will the right hon. Gentleman now confirm, with a simple yes or no, that the OBR does not legitimise that claim?
Pat McFadden
Let me read what the OBR has said:
“The Treasury did not share information with the OBR about the large pressures on RDEL, about the unusual extent of commitments against the reserve… had this information been made available, a materially different judgement…would have been reached.”
Jeremy Hunt
Perhaps the right hon. Gentleman ought to read the next paragraph, in which the OBR says that it is “not possible to judge” how much those pressures would have been offset by savings elsewhere, which demonstrates that they were within the range of the normal cost reductions that a Chief Secretary to the Treasury would make ahead of any Budget.
Pat McFadden
The right hon. Gentleman suggests that things got better after February. They did not; they got worse, and that is how we got to £22 billion. This is not just a verdict about what happened but an indictment of the Conservative party’s final period in office. The truth is that, under his watch, the Treasury had stopped doing the basic job of controlling expenditure.
Announcements were made with no money set aside, the asylum and hotel bill was funded by emptying the country’s reserves within the first few months of the financial year, hospital building programmes were announced without the necessary funds set aside to pay for them, a pay award sat on a Secretary of State’s desk while they looked the other way, and compensation schemes were announced without the full funds being set aside to pay for them. That was an irresponsible dereliction of duty that has led to us picking up the pieces and to the right hon. Gentleman attacking the independent watchdog that was set up by his own party. Even his predecessor, the former Member for Spelthorne, admitted this morning that Labour is clearing up the Tory mess. If Conservative Members are more out of touch with reality than the former Member for Spelthorne, let me tell them that that is not a good place to be.
The right hon. Gentleman referred to the IFS, which said this morning that the Chancellor
“is not wrong to stress that she got a hospital pass on the public finances.”
Pat McFadden
No, I am not giving way.
The Conservatives talk about their golden legacy, and we heard the former Chancellor read out some of his greatest hits. Who are they kidding? The last Parliament was the worst on record for living standards, with British families worse off than their French and German counterparts. His Government had the second lowest growth in the G7 since the pandemic and the highest inflation in the G7 since the pandemic. They left a prison system overflowing and just days away from collapse, and rather than take responsibility for it, they cut and ran and called an early election.
I have to give the previous Government credit: some things did grow on their watch, such as hospital waiting lists, housing waiting lists, shoplifting, insecure work and the decline of our high streets. That is their record, and it falls to us to fix it and start to rebuild Britain, so there is no point in coming to this Chamber and pretending that people are making it all up.
The former Chancellor talks about business. His party stuffed business—his colleague, the former Prime Minister, said “eff business”, and then the Conservatives carried out the policy. Under them, we had the lowest business investment in the G7. Why? Because of constant chaos in their Governments, meaning that business did not know who would be leading them from one year to the next; because they caved in to their Back Benchers and blocked anything substantial from being built; and because businesses could not hire the workers they needed with so many people on the sick.
This could have been a Budget where we just muddled through—patched up some mistakes made by the Conservative party and hoped something would turn up—but that is not good enough. We have had that time and again. In fact, we have had 14 years of it—long enough to show that that approach is not going to work. The country voted for change, and this was a Budget to deliver change. It is not a time for more of the same; it is a time to choose. We did not duck the challenge or look the other way; we confronted the challenge, because that is what the country needs. This is the moment when the country turns a corner and sets out a proper plan for the years to come.
We did make tax changes in this Budget, which is never an easy thing to do. That was because the first thing we had to do was fix the foundations and put the public finances on a sound footing. With this Budget, we say how we will pay for what we will do. The first fiscal rule announced by the Chancellor is to fund day-to-day spending from the revenue that we raise, a rule that the OBR judges will be met two years early.
The IMF, to which the right hon. Member for Godalming and Ash referred, has today welcomed
“the Budget’s focus on boosting growth through a needed increase in public investment while addressing urgent pressures on public services”,
so let me turn to those public services. Secondly, there will be more NHS appointments to get waiting lists and times down; more technology to improve productivity; more prevention to stop people falling ill in the first place; new surgical hubs and diagnostic centres; a hospital-building programme brought from fiction to reality, this time founded on more than hot air; new schools to help children learn; more teachers to bring out the best in every child; and more investment in further education to give people the skills they need. It is investment and reform together—not just more money into the same system, but changing the system for a new age, with productivity targets alongside the extra money.
The right hon. Gentleman also talked about welfare spending, but the Conservatives had plenty of time to sort out welfare spending. Their legacy is almost 3 million people out of work because of long-term sickness. The truth is that they did not have a plan, but they do have a record, and again, it falls to us to sort that record out. We will take tough action on welfare fraud, and we will not give up on those who can work and make a contribution, because we understand that when the sick can get treated and when every child of every background has the best chance to learn, that is not just good for them and their families but for the economy as a whole.
Thirdly, this Budget put in place help with the cost of living for millions: a rising minimum wage with extra help for young workers, fuel duty frozen, carers allowed to earn more, the triple lock protected, the household support fund extended to help the poorest, and lower deductions from universal credit. Those are the choices that we made—real help for millions of people.
Finally, we reject the path of decline for investment that the Conservatives were planning. They wanted to cut public investment by a third. That was the right hon. Gentleman’s plan—to once again cut back on the house building, schools, hospitals and transport projects that the country needs. That is a path of decline that has been chosen too often in the past. The Tories do not yet have a leader, and the only policy to come out of their leadership contest so far is to cut maternity pay, but on the question of investment, they do have a position. Budgets are about choices, and yesterday they chose: the former Prime Minister, the right hon. Member for Richmond and Northallerton (Rishi Sunak) railed against our new investment rule, and more Conservative Members have spoken out since. What does that mean their position is? New money for housing—opposed. New money for schools—opposed. New money for potholes—opposed. New money for research—opposed. Investment in the future itself—opposed by the Conservative party. I understand the perils of opposition. We have had long enough experience of it, but if the Conservatives really want to run around the country opposing every new investment over the coming four or five years, be our guests.
Yes, this Budget was a big choice, and in opposing the investments within it, the Conservatives have made a big choice too. We will remind them of it, project after project, year after year. They wanted to lock us into the world that voters rejected just four short months ago.
Jake Richards (Rother Valley) (Lab)
My right hon. Friend has mentioned the policies, or lack thereof, that have come out of the Tory leadership contest. Unfortunately, I spent an evening watching the GB News debate between the Tory leadership contenders, and the one policy that one of the contenders said she would put in place on day one as Prime Minister was a tax cut for private schools. That is the priority of the modern Conservative party: opposing the investment in this Budget while offering tax cuts for the very richest.
Pat McFadden
I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention, although I have to say that his television viewing choices are a little bit different from mine. With regard to education, we have always said that we support aspiration for all children in every type of school.
Our growth plans are about far more than this Budget. They are about planning reform to get Britain building, a challenge that was ducked by the Conservative party year after year. They are about more clean energy for energy security. They are about private investment, with £63 billion of investment announced at our investment summit just a few weeks ago—investors are finally appreciating the stability that has come to the country after the chaos wrought by the Conservative party—and they are about reform of business rates to support our neglected high streets.
This is a big moment for the country. In July, the public did not vote to carry on as we are—they did not vote to continue with the plans of the Conservative party. They voted for change, and this is a Budget for change: not just change in policy, but facing up to the reality of what the Conservative party left behind. It is a Budget to stabilise the public finances, to help people with the cost of living, to begin to turn our public services around, and to start to rebuild Britain. It is a choice between investment and decline—a turning of the page after 14 years. It is a Budget that launches a new chapter for Britain, and we will be proud to vote for it in the Lobby next week.
Madam Deputy Speaker (Ms Nusrat Ghani)
I call the Liberal Democrat spokesperson.
Sir Bernard Jenkin
I am not going to give way any more. We need only look around the world to see that the idea that an ever-larger state makes the people richer is confounded by economic experience, otherwise the richest countries in the world would be those with the biggest state. It is businesses and free enterprise that generate the wealth that pays for the public services we need.
We can all recall Milton Friedman’s four ways to spend money. There is people’s own money that they spend on themselves: they think about it, spend it very carefully and make sure they get the maximum value for money. There is money that people spend on other people, such as when they buy a present: they may want to keep the cost down and may not be sensitive about whether the person really wants a particular gift or not. There is somebody else’s money that people spend on themselves: when people use expense accounts, they go on the most expensive aeroplane or get the biggest car their company will pay for. Finally, there is somebody else’s money that is spent on other people: that is what Governments do. It is a reality that Governments are the worst allocators of resource for ensuring future wealth creation. That is just a fact.
The record will always confirm that if we want to create more wealth, the smaller the state can be, the faster economic growth will be and the more we can afford to then spend on public services. This Government are profoundly un-strategic—just look at what the OBR says about investment:
“Tax rises in this Budget weigh on real incomes, so private consumption falls as a share of GDP”—
that means people are going to be getting poorer. It continues:
“Corporate profits are expected to continue falling as a share of GDP in the near term”.
It adds that
“business investment falls as a share of GDP as profit margins are squeezed, and the net impact of Budget policies lowers business investment.”
Is that good for the British economy? I submit not.
What about debt? If someone has too much debt, the one thing they should do is not borrow more money, if they want to get out of a debt trap—[Interruption.] Members on the Government Benches have surgeries attended by people who are in debt. The one thing hon. Members will tell them not to do is to stack up more debt, but that is what the Government have chosen to do. That is not a long-term policy.
Finally, what about GDP? I take no pride in saying that growth in GDP has been struggling for a decade or more—
Sir Bernard Jenkin
Yes, I do not think we did enough to dynamise the British economy. We did not do enough, but I was very grateful for the support of the Liberal Democrats for the first five years of the Conservative Government. That helped us to keep public expenditure under better control so we could begin that process.
GDP per head has really been flatlining. We are falling significantly further behind the United States, but what are the trends? On these trends, we will be overtaken by Poland by 2030 in terms of GDP per head. What are this Government doing to address the real long-term trends? Let us look to 2050. What is the shape of public expenditure going to look like in 2050? This Budget does not begin to address that. What will be our national debt on a long-term basis? What is happening to our demographic, including the ageing population and the ratio of people in work and out of work? What are this Government doing to address that trend and to address the immigration trend, because that is adding to the cost of our economy?
How will we be able to increase defence spending? The Chief of the General Staff has recently said that this country could well be directly involved in a war within the lifetime of this Parliament. We will have to spend more on defence, as well as controlling the rest of the public sector. It is many decades since health, education and welfare started swamping out every other kind of expenditure in the Government. If we are to survive as a country, we will have to address these very damaging long-term trends.
The Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury (James Murray)
I thank my right hon. Friend the Member for Wolverhampton South East (Pat McFadden) for opening today’s debate, and for so clearly reminding us of the state in which the Conservatives left our country.
As many Members have rightly made clear today, yesterday’s Budget made choices about the future of our country. They were not just choices to get through the next few months until the next fiscal event, as we got used to under the last Government, but choices—sometimes difficult ones—about the long-term future of the UK economy and the public finances. The Chancellor’s Budget honoured our manifesto commitments by restoring economic stability, fixing the public finances and boosting long-term, sustainable investment in our country. The first Budget of this new Government turned the page on the last 14 years of chaos and decline. This Budget is a generational event to fix the foundations, so that we can deliver the change that the people of this country voted for. It begins to address the urgent pressures that our NHS, our schools, our police and our borders are under.
However, this Budget is not just about the coming year, nor even the whole of this Parliament; it is about making the right long-term decisions to create opportunities for people throughout the country, put more money in people’s pockets and begin a decade of national renewal.
Mims Davies
I thank the Minister for giving way; he is very generous. He has mentioned choices. Could he comment on the fact that the cost of borrowing is soaring after this tax-raising Labour Budget of broken promises? Labour Members have talked about a crashed economy, but now the Government are presiding over their own low-growth, slow-growth car crash, and they are living in denial themselves.
James Murray
Although we will not comment on market movements, the Chancellor outlined yesterday two new robust fiscal rules, which are the bedrock of stability on which this Budget is built. Those rules will put the public finances on a sustainable path and prioritise investment to support long-term growth. The current budget is in surplus by £9.9 billion in 2029-30, with net financial debt falling in 2029-30 and with headroom of £15.7 billion.
When we went into the election in July, the first steps that we promised to the British people opened with these three words: “Deliver economic stability”. As the Chancellor confirmed yesterday, our first fiscal rule is the stability rule. That means we will bring the current budget into balance so that day-to-day spending is met with tax receipts. No more borrowing for day-to-day spending, no more living beyond our means, and no more papering over the cracks. Our tough new stability rule means that the British people, businesses and the markets can all see the fiscal responsibility that will underpin every decision we take in government.
The Chancellor is clear that taking the tough decisions needed to deliver stability is not always easy. The previous Government ducked the difficult decisions. They made promise after promise to the British people that they knew they could never afford. Our stability rule offers a different approach. Meeting it means we needed to raise taxes, but we have been clear that we will protect working people. That is why the Budget does not increase income tax or national insurance contributions that working people see on their payslips. Instead, we are balancing the books in a fair way.
That does not always mean decisions are easy—far from it—but it is also right that, before considering any changes to taxes, we make sure everyone pays the tax they owe by closing the tax gap. That is why, as the Chancellor set out yesterday, we will deliver the most ambitious package to close the tax gap that this country has ever seen. Alongside a series of policy changes set out in the Budget documents, by 2029-30 HMRC will have recruited 5,000 additional compliance officers and funded 1,800 additional debt management staff. Together, that will mean £6.5 billion in additional tax revenue to pay for the country’s priorities before we make a single change to a tax rate or threshold.
Beyond the crucial work to close the tax gap, the Budget confirms that we will implement our manifesto promises, including to abolish the non-dom tax loophole, which the OBR says will raise £12.7 billion over the forecast period. We will end the VAT exemption and business rates relief for private schools, which the OBR confirms will raise £1.8 billion a year by 2029-30. As of today, we have increased the stamp duty land tax surcharge on second homes to 5%, helping more than 130,000 people to buy their first home or move home over the next five years, while raising £310 million a year by 2029-30 to support public services.
I know hon. Members have raised questions about some of the other tax changes announced in the Budget, and I am glad to have the opportunity to respond. In particular, I would like to address the changes we have made to inheritance tax, specifically the reforms to agricultural property relief. I realise that people may be concerned about the impact on family farms, so I would like to make clear some of the facts about how the reforms to this relief will work. The main rate of agricultural property relief on all assets was set at 50% until 1992, at which point it was raised to 100% just before the election that year.
Let me be clear: these reforms still provide a very significant level of relief to protect family farms. The Chancellor confirmed yesterday that the first £1 million of combined business and agricultural assets will continue to receive 100% relief in most circumstances. Assets above £1 million will attract a 50% relief, equal to the pre-1992 rate, which means that inheritance tax will be paid at a rate of 20% instead of 40%. Our reforms, in a tough fiscal context, still leave the relief as being far more generous than it has been in the past.
It is important to note that agricultural and business property reliefs are in addition to the nil rate bands and other exemptions, such as the transfers between spouses and civil partners, and the rules on gifts. Indeed, the National Farmers Union director of strategy has highlighted that these other features of the tax system are important. He said just today that APR
“is not the be all and end all for passing on farms on death.”
Indeed, these exemptions mean that if someone has no other assets and is passing it on to a direct descendant, a farm or farming business worth up to £2 million can be passed on without paying any inheritance tax at all. Furthermore, those liable for a charge can in most circumstances pay any liability over 10 annual instalments.
Let me also be clear about the data on agricultural property relief. The total value of a farm should not be confused with the value being passed on at death. Multiple family members can own part of a farm. For example, if an individual jointly owns a farm worth £3 million with their partner, only £1.5 million is in their estate at death. In 2021-22, the most recent year for which data is available, the median value of assets qualifying for APR was £486,000. Three quarters of estates claimed for assets below £1 million, and such estates will continue to pay no inheritance tax at all. Just 463 claims were for agricultural assets of over £1 million, or 27% of all claims. The largest assets, those worth over £2.5 million, related to just 7% of claims for APR. That data is published openly on gov.uk for everyone to see, and I encourage people to investigate it.
Sir Bernard Jenkin
It does seem rather odd to introduce a new tax and then to defend it on the basis that very few people will pay it. Why is the Minister so confident that it will yield anything recognisable in terms of a contribution to the public finances? The few landowners who will be caught by this measure will be making other arrangements to ensure that they avoid it, particularly the very large landowners.
James Murray
I thank the hon. Gentleman for acknowledging that the impact of these changes is limited and targeted. That is an important point. He leads me on to my concluding point, which is to point out that the decision we have taken to retain APR, but to limit its generosity for the top quarter or so of assets, is the right approach to fixing the public finances while also protecting family farms.
I have set out some of the detail of how we are restoring stability and responsibility to the public finances and meeting our first fiscal rule, the stability rule. As the Chancellor set out yesterday, that rule is accompanied by the investment rule, which makes sure that debt is falling as a share of the economy. Debt is measured as net financial debt—a statistic measured by the Office for National Statistics since 2016, and forecast since then by the OBR. It recognises that Government investment can deliver returns for the taxpayer by counting not just liabilities on our balance sheet, but our financial assets too. That new approach provides space to deliver the step change in investment that our country needs, within a strong fiscal framework that puts public finances on a sustainable path.
To drive investment further still, the corporate tax road map, which we published yesterday, commits us to providing the best environment for businesses through a predictable, stable, tax system. It caps the headline rate of corporation tax at 25%—the lowest in the G7. It maintains our world-leading capital allowances system, including permanent full expensing and a £1 million annual investment allowance. It maintains our generous R&D reliefs so that the most innovative companies can invest in the long-term future of our country.
Before I conclude my remarks, let me thank all hon. Members for their contributions today. It is a pleasure still to be hearing maiden speeches so far into this Parliament. I found the speech from my hon. Friend the Member for Worcester (Tom Collins) truly uplifting as he spoke about what he drew from the past of his constituency, the promise of the future and, most importantly, the people who he represents and the inspiration they give him. I thank him for bringing some of that uplifting inspiration to the Chamber.
I thoroughly enjoyed the maiden speech by my hon. Friend the Member for Dagenham and Rainham (Margaret Mullane), and everyone in this Chamber will immediately have felt the connection that she has to her constituency and the people she represents. Having formerly been the Deputy Mayor for Housing in London, I found her emphasis on the history and future of affordable housing particularly close to my heart.
My hon. Friend the Member for Livingston (Gregor Poynton) spoke passionately about his constituency, and perfectly articulated the strength of our Union in the UK, balanced with the strength of our national identities in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland. I thought he encapsulated that perfectly in his speech, and I will be looking at Hansard to remember his phrasing.
The maiden speech from my hon. Friend the Member for Ribble Valley (Maya Ellis) touched us all as she spoke about her late father, who I am sure would be incredibly proud of what she has achieved. I thank her for sharing that close personal story with us today.
We also heard from the hon. Member for Carshalton and Wallington (Bobby Dean) whose maiden speech I believe I heard last time I was at the Dispatch Box. Was he trying to claim that the change in fiscal rules was his campaign win during his speech? I am pretty sure it was the Chancellor of the Exchequer who came up with the idea, but I thank him for his contribution none the less, and I look forward to seeing him on the Treasury Select Committee.
I also thank my hon. Friend the Member for Leeds Central and Headingley (Alex Sobel) for acknowledging the importance of working with mayors across the country, including the excellent Mayor of West Yorkshire.
Let me briefly address two points made by Opposition Members, including the hon. Member for North Cotswolds (Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown) who spoke about a pensions review. It is an excellent idea to have a pension review, so I am glad that the Chancellor announced in August a landmark pension review, which is looking at how to boost investment and to increase pension pots. It will set out how billions of pounds of investment could be unlocked from defined contribution pension schemes and how pension pots in such schemes could be boosted by up to £11,000. I hope that the hon. Gentleman will look at that review, and I would welcome discussing it with him in due course.
The hon. Member for North East Fife (Wendy Chamberlain) spoke about the Scotch whisky industry. I understand that it may not have welcomed everything in the Budget, to put it mildly, but I want to be clear that we feel that the overall package on alcohol balances the commercial pressures on the alcohol industry with the need to raise revenue. Of course, 90% of whisky is exported so no duty is due on that. We have also looked to support the Scotch whisky industry by reducing fees for geographical verification—specific support that I hope will help the industry in the years ahead.
Today’s debate has brought to the surface the stark difference between this side of the Chamber and the other. The Conservatives have made it clear, yet again, that they are unable to take responsibility for the state of the country as they left it. In contrast, Labour’s first Budget makes it clear that, above all else, we are taking the difficult and responsible decisions to fix the mess they made. We know there are no shortcuts. We are realistic about that, but our Budget is the one our country needs. It is a Budget to restore economic stability while protecting working people, to fix the foundations and fix the NHS, to invest in the future and to rebuild Britain. I commend it to the House.
Ordered, That the debate be now adjourned.—(Taiwo Owatemi.)
Debate to be resumed on Monday 4 November.