East West Rail: Bedford to Cambridge

Wera Hobhouse Excerpts

Tuesday 13th June 2023 Westminster Hall

[Wera Hobhouse (Bath) (LD)]

On the question of growth, East West Rail should be a real opportunity for growth, but real problems will arise if the surrounding infrastructure is not there, which will put pressure on people. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that, together with East West Rail, the Government really need to work with local communities to create additional infrastructure, such as bus services and GP services, so that people see the benefits of that growth?

[Richard Fuller]

The hon. Lady is absolutely right, and that is why I circulated a letter, which all parties have signed, calling for exactly that: a greener alternative that focuses on sustainable growth and the work-life patterns that people want, not a 19th-century solution that is supposed to unlock growth on an unproven model.

One could sense the political support ebbing away from East West Rail as the announcement was made. The truth is that it has brought no relief to those most affected. I understand that, in a rearguard action today, Beth West, the chief executive of East West Rail, has said that she will approach Government to enable the purchase of houses that are currently planned to be demolished. That would help people who are already two or three years into uncertainty. As an additional ask, will the Minister instruct East West Rail to send an advice note to people whose homes or properties are within the proposed corridor and, included in that, the expected distance from the rail route itself? That will provide clarity to more people, particularly in the villages affected.

The Minister will know that we had elections recently, and that they have brought political change. I am not sure that the election results around the country were good for the Conservative party, but in Bedford borough, the Conservatives won the directly elected mayoralty for the first time ever. That was a repudiation of the Liberal Democrat Mayor, who had strongly supported East West Rail and such an environmentally destructive route across north Bedfordshire, with its phoney economic benefits for the town. Now with Tom Wootton as the Mayor, we have someone who is clear and determined in his opposition to the proposals presented by East West Rail. Conversely, in central Bedfordshire we also have a new leader—an independent, whose ward encompasses Tempsford, the site of a station that may herald substantial housing development, measured in the tens of thousands. Does the Minister appreciate the current scale of interest in alternatives to the project, given these political changes?

I have been contacted, without solicitation, by many sources and experts decrying the performance of the East West Rail Company. One constituent with expertise wrote to me to say:

“From my experience and observations the insincerity of the process pursued by EWR has been its most glaring weakness. In equal measure, however, any such criticism must also lie at the door of the Department for Transport who appear to be an acquiescing partner in the woefully inadequate activities of EWR. Unfortunately, the Government as a whole cannot escape association with the feeling of disillusionment generated through continuous stonewalling, lack of logical business planning, flouting of the law (freedom of information) and insincerity of approach.”

The route chosen by East West Rail is so full of twists and turns, and ups and downs, that it surely competes with what is probably our country’s bendiest road, the B3081 at Cann Common in Dorset—I am not sure whether the Minister knew that—which

“twists and turns more than many an Alpine climb.”

Those words could be applied to the route chosen by East West Rail. Back in the Victorian age, when Governments and others knew how to build railways, they chose a straighter, less hilly route. I encourage the Minister to watch the video from Alison, a constituent of the hon. Member for Bedford, who clearly outlines East West Rail’s irrationality in choosing a route with such topography.

One of the principals behind the campaign, BFARe, Bedford For a Re Consultation, wrote to tell me:

“The crux of the issue stems from the fact that the NSIP process contains a ratchet mechanism whereby the narrowing down of options precludes a fundamental review/rethink of alternatives when better evidence comes to light about previously discarded options. The starting premise for growth in the Arc was flawed and the initial public consultation into the scheme in 2019 was so badly handled that it shut out a lot of people and communities who stood to be most impacted by the scheme”.

Another constituent wrote to me expressing the view of many in my constituency:

“To get to Cambridge I personally would drive to the park and ride and get on a bus to the centre of the city; not drive to Bedford station, pay to park, buy an expensive train ticket to get a train which would not take me to the centre.”

I will spend some time on the cost-benefit analysis, because I think it is an open secret that nobody thinks that East West Rail is financially viable. Less than a year ago, the former Secretary of State for Transport, my right hon. Friend the Member for Welwyn Hatfield (Grant Shapps), when on the LBC radio show of Mr Iain Dale, had the following interaction. Mr Dale: “What would you cut from your Transport budget?” The former Secretary of State: “I would take East West Rail and I would remove.” Iain Dale: “Why haven’t you done it already?” The former Secretary of State: “Well, I haven’t had the opportunity.” Iain Dale: “You are the Transport Secretary. You could easily have done it already. You could have gone to the Chancellor and said, ‘I know you want to cut spending; here is one way you could do that.’” The former Secretary of State: “I have done that in other ways, but you have just asked what I would do as Prime Minister, and I am telling you I would cut East West Rail on what is called two and three, so there’s the second and third tranches of it, and save £3 billion to £5 billion straight away.” I therefore ask the Minister what he would do if he was Prime Minister?

A constituent wrote to me on the cost-benefit analysis and said:

“As someone who has had the ‘we intend to drive a railway line through your property’ notice recently I'd really like to get two questions answered, as this document failed entirely to do so. Where is an up to date business case? No-one has seen one, no-one affected believes a valid business case now exists…When will EWR engage directly with home owners on the route to purchase land?”

I have mentioned that second point already. East West Rail states in its documents:

“While the Business Case is still in development and won’t be completed until we’ve obtained the required consent for the Project...In the final weeks before publication, the proposals are subject to a cross-Government approval process.”

So it will get consent and then tell us what the business case is.

Appendix 5 to the economic and technical report discusses the “economic appraisal”. The report states that it will:

“compare benefits against costs over the life of a project or for a defined period of time. As is typical for infrastructure projects, the monetised impacts of EWR are projected to a point 60 years from entry into service. Both the benefits and costs are discounted and presented in 2010 prices and values in line with TAG guidance”—

transport analysis guidance. The report continues:

“The 60-year value is known as the Present Value (PV).”

It concludes:

“Standard approach to modelling and forecasting results showed us that, in conventional appraisal terms, the BCRs were ‘poor’ across all options”.

What does “poor” mean? It means benefit-cost ratios of 0.26 to 0.42—and that is based on the high-growth option. The high-growth option means that the best benefit-to-cost ratio is less than half the amount taxpayers will be asked to put into the railway. What does that mean in terms of cost to the taxpayer? It means £1.5 billion to £2.4 billion thrown away on a railway.

East West Rail seeks an escape route from such a common-sense economic appraisal. It states:

“These early estimates of costs were a key driver of the BCRs, which did not account for the transformational and strategic benefits considered later as part of the application of our Theory of Change.”

Over two chapters, East West Rail attempts to draw in every possible justification for its project. It talks about east-west connectivity, but it does not mention the cancellation of the expressway. It talks about housing costs, but it does not notice that the highest costs are where railways exist. Thus its proposals are as likely to increase house prices in areas where they are lower than in Cambridge than they are to lower house prices in Cambridge itself. It ignores the power of the market, with private companies already making decisions about where to locate if Cambridgeshire is too expensive. For example, Marshall Aerospace is very sensibly relocating to Cranfield Airport.

Before I entered Parliament, I was a partner in a strategy consulting firm, advising large businesses and utilities on investment decisions. I was also a partner in a venture capital fund, investing in the high-growth businesses of tomorrow. I am also a graduate of Havard Business School, and I can use all that life experience and those qualifications to assess the theory of change exercise by East West Rail as complete nonsense. What is the Department for Transport metaphorically smoking if it continues to go along with this economic illiteracy? I may have missed the financial conclusion of the theory of change exercise, but perhaps the Minister can advise us whether he will release the full financial case, together with all the assumptions and sources. Today, I issue a challenge to the chief executive of East West Rail to attend a public debate with me to argue the economic case for and against this project—openly, transparently and honestly.

We all know the real reason behind all of this: it is about housing. A constituent wrote to me saying:

“From the economic and technical report, it is clear that Bedford is viewed as simply a cheaper housing estate separate from where all the jobs are expected to be—in and around Cambridge. So what’s in this for Bedford?”

The real reason for East West Rail is the concreting over of north Bedfordshire. We have the issue of the Tempsford interchange section, with reports of up to 40,000 new homes in a village that currently has 400 residents. There is also Stewartby, in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, where pages 92 and 93 of the economic and technical report suggest the railway will open up 70,000 jobs to households. In my estimation, that amounts to about 35,000 houses.

I am not a nimby on housing—we should all do our fair share—but as the MP for North East Bedfordshire I have to point out that there is considerable pressure on GPs, dentists and school places. Without investment in that soft infrastructure, it is very unwise to support additional housing growth.

[Wera Hobhouse]

Does the hon. Member agree that it is unfair to call people such as those in Mid Bedfordshire who are raising these absolutely real concerns nimbys? People need those services to go with the growth and the increased railway line.

[Richard Fuller]

I do, but I would not do what I understand the Liberal Democrats are doing in Mid Bedfordshire, which is to ask people which housing estate they do not like so that they can oppose it—that is not the right way to do it. However, as regards very large-scale developments, the hon. Lady is absolutely right, and we should have that consideration. In 2019 I stood on a manifesto calling for infrastructure first on these large-scale developments. I do not know whether the Minister can give me an update on that—it is not his remit, so I do not expect him to, but it is important, and he stood on the same manifesto as I did.

We should all do our fair share. I looked at the census data on the growth in households between the 2011 and 2021 censuses. The national average increase in households over that period was 6%, and I think we all feel that rapid growth in our constituencies. Perhaps unwisely, I then decided to look at specific constituencies. I looked at the Chancellor’s constituency, and he is doing his bit, with 6% growth. I looked at the Secretary of State for Transport’s constituency, and there was a 9% increase in households over that period, which is a substantial amount above the national average. The Minister, who is responsible for rail, had only 5% growth, but we will forgive him that 1%. In North East Bedfordshire from 2011 to 2021, there was 21% growth, which is already three and a half times the national average of growth in households. That is already putting pressure on GP services, dentists and school places. How on earth can I, as the MP for North East Bedfordshire, allow further pressure through an increase in housing growth until those problems are dealt with?

I want to turn to the environmental impact. I had an interaction today with Councillor Tracey Wye, who represents the ward that includes Potton. She wrote to me to say she would like to see a commitment that this project would be in harmony with the environment—something so future-proof, leading-edge and creative that we would be at the leading edge of sustainability and climate resilience. I could not agree more; she is absolutely right.

We have been a bit misled, I would say—perhaps that is unfair—about the electrification of this line. Originally, in the Railways Act 2005, it was going to be electrified as part of the electric spine. In the high-level output specification of July 2012, the line was listed as a new electric railway line. It was then dropped by East West Rail Company, but the company’s latest document now says that it may come back. Minister, which is it? Are we electrified or are we not? Is it battery powered or not? The announcement was supposed to clarify the form of traction, but it has done nothing of the sort.

I believe that Ministers know that the original plans by Lord Adonis in the 2017 “Partnership for Prosperity” report were bogus, and they have not kept pace with changes in working patterns and our greater focus on environmental issues. A previous Secretary of State cancelled the Oxford-to-Cambridge expressway in 2021, stating that

“analysis shows that the benefits the road would deliver are outweighed by the costs”.

Precisely that charge can be laid today against East West Rail, so why is the current Secretary of State not taking the same action?

A constituent wrote to tell me:

“From a net-zero perspective, how could they possibly introduce a new transport link, with the intention of running diesel trains on it until 2040 at the earliest? Hardly what you’d describe as inspirational or forward thinking.”

Another constituent wrote:

“As someone with long standing involvement in the biotech industry and academic community, I would question the whole rationale for the railway in the first place. Of course we all want to consolidate Cambridge’s position as a technology hub, but if science and industry in Oxford and Cambridge want to collaborate they’d do it remotely. East West Rail is a 19th century response to a problem for which we in the 21st century have solutions that are cheaper, better and less environmentally destructive.”

I call on the Minister to consider those solutions.

--- Later in debate ---

[Daniel Zeichner (Cambridge) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to serve with you in the Chair, Sir Mark, and I congratulate the hon. Member for North East Bedfordshire (Richard Fuller) on securing the debate. We have had many animated discussions about this subject in the past, and it will probably not surprise him to know that I take a slightly different view, but I commend him for the powerful way in which he has represented his constituents. I suspect others will do the same, because infrastructure projects of this type always cause problems for local constituents, and I have every sympathy with them.

This debate about East West Rail, the Cambridge to Milton Keynes to Oxford link or the arc—call it what you will—has been going on for a long, long time. I have been involved in discussions and debates about it for many years, and frankly I want to move beyond the debates and get the railway done.

I pay tribute to the many people who have campaigned tirelessly on these issues, including those noble councillors who set it all in motion many years ago and the East West Main Line Partnership. I am grateful for the work of the National Infrastructure Commission, which the hon. Gentleman mentioned, and the all-party group for the east of England, which I co-chair with the hon. Member for Waveney (Peter Aldous). I wish to make three main points relating to the history and the purpose of the project, and the economic and environmental value of getting it delivered.

It has been a long-running goal of rail enthusiasts to restore the lost line between Cambridge and Oxford, which has been made harder by the loss of some of the old Varsity line route. I remember conversations some 20 years ago at least, when some foresighted people were talking about it, and over time the issue came to be picked up by local authorities, which could see the broader benefits. By the time I came into this place in 2015, that campaign was picking up pace. In the subsequent eight years, I can barely recall all the conferences, party groups, business tsars and leaders who have come and gone, some of whom were never appointed in the first place —“announcements and then steps back”, as it has been described. I fear that is all part of the rather hopeless way we go about building infrastructure in this country.

I remember that, at one Budget, the then Chancellor invited Members to show up at a surgery-style session with the Minister in one of those gloomy ministerial offices down the corridor. The then Minister, who shall remain nameless, looked absolutely astonished that anyone had actually shown up. We then had a rather civilised conversation—I think that is when the business tsar came and went—and I put to him the questions that I have been putting for a number of years: what is this line for, and will it be electrified? Predictably, answer came there none.

I put exactly the same question—what is the line for?—to one of the senior civil servants who had been working on the project at one of the many annual conferences about the arc. I was absolutely flabbergasted to get the reply that they were planning to consult on exactly that issue, which seems to be rather the wrong way around.

Back in 2017, at another one of those conferences, I challenged the then chair of the East West Rail Company over electrification, and he publicly promised that not a litre of diesel would be bought. As we have heard, that issue remains unresolved—although given that we are still quite a long way off seeing any trains, I suppose that pledge has been honoured so far.

At that time, the Government were planning to build not only a new rail line but, as we also heard, a major new road. Considerable time and effort were spent on that. I must say that I always opposed the road on the same line that has been mentioned: it is a 19th-century solution to a 21st-century problem. It was absolutely the wrong thing to do when we were trying to encourage a modal shift, and I am glad that it was finally abandoned.

I might be testing the Minister slightly, but can he tell us how much was spent on that abortive project, how many civil servants are still working on the arc project—including beyond the Department for Transport, in other Departments—and how long that project team has been going? I seem to have been aware of it for a number of years, and we really need to see some output from all that work.

That brings me to my main point. As I have said, I understand the concerns about the route. First, I am glad that the southern route has been settled on near Cambridge, because overall that seems to be the most sensible. However, the reason for my unswerving support for the project is that I believe that the environmental and economic benefits will be significant. Environmentally, we know that we have to move people off roads. It may be that the world is changing, but I think—and the evidence is rising on this—that people will want to get back to face-to-face contact.

[Wera Hobhouse]

We are in a climate emergency. If people want to really see the benefits of a new infrastructure, they need to see the benefits to both the environment and their health. The Government are not making electrification the main priority. Is that not really what this line should be about—electrification?

[Daniel Zeichner]

I served on the Transport Committee with the Minister for a number of years, and I appreciate that these issues are not straightforward or simple, but the hon. Lady is absolutely right. In the end, electrification is obviously the way we should be going.

Let us also look at the time savings for people. In the early-morning rush, it can take almost an hour to get the nine miles from Cambourne into the centre of Cambridge by car. By rail, that would be reduced to 15 minutes. Bedford to Cambridge by car is 75 minutes—as I discovered to my cost a few weeks ago—and 90 by bus; but, I am told, it takes 35 minutes by train. That is transformational.

I fully accept that this is partly about the future success of Cambridge, because we are struggling hugely to find housing for the people we need to maintain Cambridge’s position driving the UK economy. It is not an unimportant point, although I accept that the location of that housing will not always necessarily appeal to everyone. Cambridge housing is hugely expensive; we all know the figures. Development pressures on my city are intense, and we have an acute shortage of people. Ironically, those are not necessarily the world-leading people but all the people we need to run the basic services. Even the best scientists in the world require their lunches, and offices that are cleaned and maintained, and we are struggling to find those people for lower-paid jobs. We therefore need affordable housing.

I accept the point that house prices do not necessarily always conform to the economic models that some people would like to propose, but we need housing that is available via quick, reliable and environmentally sustainable transport links. Those points have long been made by the leaders of Cambridge City Council, Lewis Herbert and Anna Smith.

In addition, the project would begin to open up prospects for more jobs in high-quality, environmentally sustainable communities along the arc. That is an important point. If we are building these new communities, it must not be about just a developer’s charter; they have to be the kind of communities that will attract the people who will be part of our future—a success in both Cambridge and Oxford.

I accept that there will always be debates about the economic theories of how development works and what the drivers are, but I am pretty convinced that this must be the way forward, and not just along the arc. As others, including Eastern Powerhouse, have outlined, it potentially unlocks further opportunities to the east as well.

I will conclude by making some points about the economic significance of and for Cambridge. The region already adds more than £110 billion to the UK economy every year, and the Cambridge sub-region is a major contributor to the Treasury. Frankly, reinvesting some of that to improve the local quality of life is hardly a unreasonable demand. Cambridge and Oxford are world leaders in venture capital investment, with hugely important research and development sites.

I believe that East West Rail can help to unlock the physical constraints that are currently a real challenge, and help us to get the people we need to remain in our world leadership position. There is strong support for the line from the local authorities and the business community; indeed, I was struck by a recent briefing from the business-led organisation Cambridge Ahead, because this was one of its top priorities. I know that when Government support seemed to be wobbling a while ago—I think we heard a characterisation of that earlier—the University of Cambridge was among the organisations that were particularly concerned about the prospect of the line not going ahead. I am glad that the wobbling seems to have settled, that we have a Minister who is firm in his intentions, and that the current version of this Government seem to understand the significance of the project.

I end where I began: there will always be arguments over routes and local impact, but I urge people to step back, look at the bigger picture and get this electrified railway in place.