East West Rail: Bedford to Cambridge

Richard Fuller Excerpts

Tuesday 13th June 2023 Westminster Hall

[Richard Fuller (North East Bedfordshire) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered the Bedford to Cambridge section of East West Rail.

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Sir Mark, and to discuss the recent announcements on the Bedford to Cambridge link for East West Rail. I am grateful to Mr Speaker for permitting this debate, and for the attendance of colleagues from other areas affected by the decision in my area. The areas directly affected include the parishes of Brickhill, which I share with the hon. Member for Bedford (Mohammad Yasin); Clapham; Ravensden; Wilden; Wyboston, Chawston and Colesden; Roxton; and Tempsford. Neighbouring parishes will also be affected, including Great Barford, Little Barford and Everton.

Many people think that a railway from Oxford to Cambridge is a nice idea. I used to think that too, but as I have got into the details of the railway, and as the performance of East West Rail has rolled out, my confidence and support have been completely eroded. Parliamentary colleagues present today will have their own questions for the Minister, and I am grateful to him for being here and for his helpful interactions with me. I will share with him after the debate specific questions that constituents have asked me to raise with him, and perhaps he can respond to them in due course, but I want to highlight six key asks today.

First, will the Minister agree to visit my constituency to walk the proposed route? Secondly, will the Minister ask the National Audit Office to conduct an inquiry into the East West Railway Company to provide the independent scrutiny that has been lacking to date? Thirdly, will the Minister release the full business case and cost-benefit analysis after the “theory of change” assessment, including all details of anticipated passenger and freight traffic, a discounted cash flow and a net present value? Fourthly, will the Minister today instruct East West Rail to release more detailed maps online, so that people can see what the impact is on their parish, their street or their home? Fifthly, will the Minister instruct East West Rail to write to all property owners whose homes or land are within the current corridor, explaining what the specific impact will be on their homes or properties? Finally, will the Minister conduct a full evaluation of the current status of primary care supply and demand in my constituency, and of East West Rail’s impact on that?

Last month’s announcement by East West Rail was supposed to clarify, to be deterministic, to eliminate doubts, to sideline the nimbys and to propose a great national project of economic growth. It has failed on all those fronts. Instead of a final route, we now have a completely new twist to the story between Roxton and Tempsford, and there is more doubt about the form of traction, although perhaps that is just deflection by East West Rail. Far from sidelining opposition from nimbys, the announcement has galvanised a much wider political alliance of those who have lost faith in the project and the company and who believe there is a greener, better alternative to support growth where we live.

[Wera Hobhouse (Bath) (LD)]

On the question of growth, East West Rail should be a real opportunity for growth, but real problems will arise if the surrounding infrastructure is not there, which will put pressure on people. Does the hon. Gentleman agree that, together with East West Rail, the Government really need to work with local communities to create additional infrastructure, such as bus services and GP services, so that people see the benefits of that growth?

[Richard Fuller]

The hon. Lady is absolutely right, and that is why I circulated a letter, which all parties have signed, calling for exactly that: a greener alternative that focuses on sustainable growth and the work-life patterns that people want, not a 19th-century solution that is supposed to unlock growth on an unproven model.

One could sense the political support ebbing away from East West Rail as the announcement was made. The truth is that it has brought no relief to those most affected. I understand that, in a rearguard action today, Beth West, the chief executive of East West Rail, has said that she will approach Government to enable the purchase of houses that are currently planned to be demolished. That would help people who are already two or three years into uncertainty. As an additional ask, will the Minister instruct East West Rail to send an advice note to people whose homes or properties are within the proposed corridor and, included in that, the expected distance from the rail route itself? That will provide clarity to more people, particularly in the villages affected.

The Minister will know that we had elections recently, and that they have brought political change. I am not sure that the election results around the country were good for the Conservative party, but in Bedford borough, the Conservatives won the directly elected mayoralty for the first time ever. That was a repudiation of the Liberal Democrat Mayor, who had strongly supported East West Rail and such an environmentally destructive route across north Bedfordshire, with its phoney economic benefits for the town. Now with Tom Wootton as the Mayor, we have someone who is clear and determined in his opposition to the proposals presented by East West Rail. Conversely, in central Bedfordshire we also have a new leader—an independent, whose ward encompasses Tempsford, the site of a station that may herald substantial housing development, measured in the tens of thousands. Does the Minister appreciate the current scale of interest in alternatives to the project, given these political changes?

I have been contacted, without solicitation, by many sources and experts decrying the performance of the East West Rail Company. One constituent with expertise wrote to me to say:

“From my experience and observations the insincerity of the process pursued by EWR has been its most glaring weakness. In equal measure, however, any such criticism must also lie at the door of the Department for Transport who appear to be an acquiescing partner in the woefully inadequate activities of EWR. Unfortunately, the Government as a whole cannot escape association with the feeling of disillusionment generated through continuous stonewalling, lack of logical business planning, flouting of the law (freedom of information) and insincerity of approach.”

The route chosen by East West Rail is so full of twists and turns, and ups and downs, that it surely competes with what is probably our country’s bendiest road, the B3081 at Cann Common in Dorset—I am not sure whether the Minister knew that—which

“twists and turns more than many an Alpine climb.”

Those words could be applied to the route chosen by East West Rail. Back in the Victorian age, when Governments and others knew how to build railways, they chose a straighter, less hilly route. I encourage the Minister to watch the video from Alison, a constituent of the hon. Member for Bedford, who clearly outlines East West Rail’s irrationality in choosing a route with such topography.

One of the principals behind the campaign, BFARe, Bedford For a Re Consultation, wrote to tell me:

“The crux of the issue stems from the fact that the NSIP process contains a ratchet mechanism whereby the narrowing down of options precludes a fundamental review/rethink of alternatives when better evidence comes to light about previously discarded options. The starting premise for growth in the Arc was flawed and the initial public consultation into the scheme in 2019 was so badly handled that it shut out a lot of people and communities who stood to be most impacted by the scheme”.

Another constituent wrote to me expressing the view of many in my constituency:

“To get to Cambridge I personally would drive to the park and ride and get on a bus to the centre of the city; not drive to Bedford station, pay to park, buy an expensive train ticket to get a train which would not take me to the centre.”

I will spend some time on the cost-benefit analysis, because I think it is an open secret that nobody thinks that East West Rail is financially viable. Less than a year ago, the former Secretary of State for Transport, my right hon. Friend the Member for Welwyn Hatfield (Grant Shapps), when on the LBC radio show of Mr Iain Dale, had the following interaction. Mr Dale: “What would you cut from your Transport budget?” The former Secretary of State: “I would take East West Rail and I would remove.” Iain Dale: “Why haven’t you done it already?” The former Secretary of State: “Well, I haven’t had the opportunity.” Iain Dale: “You are the Transport Secretary. You could easily have done it already. You could have gone to the Chancellor and said, ‘I know you want to cut spending; here is one way you could do that.’” The former Secretary of State: “I have done that in other ways, but you have just asked what I would do as Prime Minister, and I am telling you I would cut East West Rail on what is called two and three, so there’s the second and third tranches of it, and save £3 billion to £5 billion straight away.” I therefore ask the Minister what he would do if he was Prime Minister?

A constituent wrote to me on the cost-benefit analysis and said:

“As someone who has had the ‘we intend to drive a railway line through your property’ notice recently I'd really like to get two questions answered, as this document failed entirely to do so. Where is an up to date business case? No-one has seen one, no-one affected believes a valid business case now exists…When will EWR engage directly with home owners on the route to purchase land?”

I have mentioned that second point already. East West Rail states in its documents:

“While the Business Case is still in development and won’t be completed until we’ve obtained the required consent for the Project...In the final weeks before publication, the proposals are subject to a cross-Government approval process.”

So it will get consent and then tell us what the business case is.

Appendix 5 to the economic and technical report discusses the “economic appraisal”. The report states that it will:

“compare benefits against costs over the life of a project or for a defined period of time. As is typical for infrastructure projects, the monetised impacts of EWR are projected to a point 60 years from entry into service. Both the benefits and costs are discounted and presented in 2010 prices and values in line with TAG guidance”—

transport analysis guidance. The report continues:

“The 60-year value is known as the Present Value (PV).”

It concludes:

“Standard approach to modelling and forecasting results showed us that, in conventional appraisal terms, the BCRs were ‘poor’ across all options”.

What does “poor” mean? It means benefit-cost ratios of 0.26 to 0.42—and that is based on the high-growth option. The high-growth option means that the best benefit-to-cost ratio is less than half the amount taxpayers will be asked to put into the railway. What does that mean in terms of cost to the taxpayer? It means £1.5 billion to £2.4 billion thrown away on a railway.

East West Rail seeks an escape route from such a common-sense economic appraisal. It states:

“These early estimates of costs were a key driver of the BCRs, which did not account for the transformational and strategic benefits considered later as part of the application of our Theory of Change.”

Over two chapters, East West Rail attempts to draw in every possible justification for its project. It talks about east-west connectivity, but it does not mention the cancellation of the expressway. It talks about housing costs, but it does not notice that the highest costs are where railways exist. Thus its proposals are as likely to increase house prices in areas where they are lower than in Cambridge than they are to lower house prices in Cambridge itself. It ignores the power of the market, with private companies already making decisions about where to locate if Cambridgeshire is too expensive. For example, Marshall Aerospace is very sensibly relocating to Cranfield Airport.

Before I entered Parliament, I was a partner in a strategy consulting firm, advising large businesses and utilities on investment decisions. I was also a partner in a venture capital fund, investing in the high-growth businesses of tomorrow. I am also a graduate of Havard Business School, and I can use all that life experience and those qualifications to assess the theory of change exercise by East West Rail as complete nonsense. What is the Department for Transport metaphorically smoking if it continues to go along with this economic illiteracy? I may have missed the financial conclusion of the theory of change exercise, but perhaps the Minister can advise us whether he will release the full financial case, together with all the assumptions and sources. Today, I issue a challenge to the chief executive of East West Rail to attend a public debate with me to argue the economic case for and against this project—openly, transparently and honestly.

We all know the real reason behind all of this: it is about housing. A constituent wrote to me saying:

“From the economic and technical report, it is clear that Bedford is viewed as simply a cheaper housing estate separate from where all the jobs are expected to be—in and around Cambridge. So what’s in this for Bedford?”

The real reason for East West Rail is the concreting over of north Bedfordshire. We have the issue of the Tempsford interchange section, with reports of up to 40,000 new homes in a village that currently has 400 residents. There is also Stewartby, in the Mid Bedfordshire constituency, where pages 92 and 93 of the economic and technical report suggest the railway will open up 70,000 jobs to households. In my estimation, that amounts to about 35,000 houses.

I am not a nimby on housing—we should all do our fair share—but as the MP for North East Bedfordshire I have to point out that there is considerable pressure on GPs, dentists and school places. Without investment in that soft infrastructure, it is very unwise to support additional housing growth.

[Wera Hobhouse]

Does the hon. Member agree that it is unfair to call people such as those in Mid Bedfordshire who are raising these absolutely real concerns nimbys? People need those services to go with the growth and the increased railway line.

[Richard Fuller]

I do, but I would not do what I understand the Liberal Democrats are doing in Mid Bedfordshire, which is to ask people which housing estate they do not like so that they can oppose it—that is not the right way to do it. However, as regards very large-scale developments, the hon. Lady is absolutely right, and we should have that consideration. In 2019 I stood on a manifesto calling for infrastructure first on these large-scale developments. I do not know whether the Minister can give me an update on that—it is not his remit, so I do not expect him to, but it is important, and he stood on the same manifesto as I did.

We should all do our fair share. I looked at the census data on the growth in households between the 2011 and 2021 censuses. The national average increase in households over that period was 6%, and I think we all feel that rapid growth in our constituencies. Perhaps unwisely, I then decided to look at specific constituencies. I looked at the Chancellor’s constituency, and he is doing his bit, with 6% growth. I looked at the Secretary of State for Transport’s constituency, and there was a 9% increase in households over that period, which is a substantial amount above the national average. The Minister, who is responsible for rail, had only 5% growth, but we will forgive him that 1%. In North East Bedfordshire from 2011 to 2021, there was 21% growth, which is already three and a half times the national average of growth in households. That is already putting pressure on GP services, dentists and school places. How on earth can I, as the MP for North East Bedfordshire, allow further pressure through an increase in housing growth until those problems are dealt with?

I want to turn to the environmental impact. I had an interaction today with Councillor Tracey Wye, who represents the ward that includes Potton. She wrote to me to say she would like to see a commitment that this project would be in harmony with the environment—something so future-proof, leading-edge and creative that we would be at the leading edge of sustainability and climate resilience. I could not agree more; she is absolutely right.

We have been a bit misled, I would say—perhaps that is unfair—about the electrification of this line. Originally, in the Railways Act 2005, it was going to be electrified as part of the electric spine. In the high-level output specification of July 2012, the line was listed as a new electric railway line. It was then dropped by East West Rail Company, but the company’s latest document now says that it may come back. Minister, which is it? Are we electrified or are we not? Is it battery powered or not? The announcement was supposed to clarify the form of traction, but it has done nothing of the sort.

I believe that Ministers know that the original plans by Lord Adonis in the 2017 “Partnership for Prosperity” report were bogus, and they have not kept pace with changes in working patterns and our greater focus on environmental issues. A previous Secretary of State cancelled the Oxford-to-Cambridge expressway in 2021, stating that

“analysis shows that the benefits the road would deliver are outweighed by the costs”.

Precisely that charge can be laid today against East West Rail, so why is the current Secretary of State not taking the same action?

A constituent wrote to tell me:

“From a net-zero perspective, how could they possibly introduce a new transport link, with the intention of running diesel trains on it until 2040 at the earliest? Hardly what you’d describe as inspirational or forward thinking.”

Another constituent wrote:

“As someone with long standing involvement in the biotech industry and academic community, I would question the whole rationale for the railway in the first place. Of course we all want to consolidate Cambridge’s position as a technology hub, but if science and industry in Oxford and Cambridge want to collaborate they’d do it remotely. East West Rail is a 19th century response to a problem for which we in the 21st century have solutions that are cheaper, better and less environmentally destructive.”

I call on the Minister to consider those solutions.

[Sir Mark Hendrick (in the Chair)]

I remind Members that they should bob if they wish to be called in the debate.

--- Later in debate ---

[Richard Fuller]

I will try not to detain you for 10 minutes, Sir Mark, but we will see. I thank the Minister, the shadow Minister—the hon. Member for Slough (Mr Dhesi) —and all hon. Members who have spoken, plus the hon. Member for Bath (Wera Hobhouse), who is no longer in her place but who made useful interventions. We certainly had a diversity of views, but one thing that united all those speaking from the Back Benches was that diesel is a non-starter on this railway. Until the Minister and the Government resolve that issue, they are pushing a plan that will further erode public support.

The hon. Member for Cambridge (Daniel Zeichner) made the crucial point that the goal of this investment is to try to build on the strength of Cambridge. We are lucky to have academic, technical and innovative skills in and around Cambridge, in the science parks and the university. That hub of activity has a national benefit for all of us. I completely agree with him, including about the importance of being able to provide accommodation for people and support for that potential to be fulfilled. East West Rail is not the smartest way to do that. There are greener, better alternatives that use public money better to achieve that. If we could engage on that rather than blindly going down this route of “We had already thought of it 10 years ago so we have to keep thinking about it”, we would get a better answer for Cambridge.

My hon. Friend the Member for South Cambridgeshire (Anthony Browne) made the crucial point that inadequate attention has been paid to the water supply in the East Anglia region. This is not a marginal concern, but a substantial one. Like my hon. Friend, I have spoken to the experts in this area about their plans going out 20 or 30 years. Even with all the effort they can make with a new reservoir and with desalination plants, we will run out of water in the eastern region unless there are other additional plans. We have to bear that in mind before the potential for more housing can be taken any further.

The hon. Member for Bedford (Mohammad Yasin) spoke with great passion about members in his constituency, which I know well, who have been given a notification, and about the need for compensation and support. My hon. Friend the Member for South Cambridgeshire emphasised how in this country we are not very good at managing these issues for people when it comes to quantity, the process of reassessing the value of properties or timeliness. It was kind of the CEO of East West Rail to say today that she will see whether things can be done. If the Minister took her up on that, that might help those people. As the hon. Member for Bedford said, there is new additional uncertainty about the new station at the hospital and what that will mean for his constituents and the town of Bedford.

The shadow Minister made some strong points. I shall not pick up on all of them. I always love it when I hear someone say they really like something. The shadow Minister said 50 businesses had written to the Government to say that they supported East West Rail. It is always easy for people to support something when they do not have to pay for it. Would those 50 businesses write the same letter if we said we were going to tax their profits until we made up the shortfall for the taxpayer of £1.5 billion to £3 billion? I wonder whether their support would be quite so evocative if they had to pay for it. In the good old days, people used to say, “I’m going to stand on my own two feet. I’m going to pay for things myself.” Perhaps the Minister should look at ways in which the shortfall could be reduced for the taxpayer by charging the businesses that say they are going to benefit. I would be interested in his thoughts about that one.

On the updated business case, again, the shadow Minister talked eloquently about the support he had for rail projects. Well, at the moment this rail project has a benefit-cost ratio of, basically, 26p in the pound to 52p in the pound. I wonder whether that is Labour’s assumption of good value for money to the taxpayer. Is that the benchmark? If we can anticipate Labour spending that £28 billion a year, that would mean a £20 billion to £50 billion a year loss to the taxpayer. I really think that Labour needs to sharpen its pencils on what is a beneficial return and not give such an easy pass if the benefit-cost ratio of East West Rail is as low as that.

I am grateful to the Minister for his responses, and for his willingness to walk the entire route. I am happy to say that we need him only for part of it, and we will find a date. He said that the announcement is a milestone; I fear it is a millstone. I do not think that this is the right way to unlock growth, but I understand that my view differs from that of the Government. It was disappointing that there was no more pressure from the Minister on East West Rail to be open on the business case. As many Members have said, there is no clarity about the business case, and people having the opportunity to discuss it openly would help with greater transparency, which is why I issued my challenge to the chief executive: I am happy to debate the matter with her in my constituency.

The Minister also talked kindly about the impact of housing growth, and I am grateful for that. He talked about his own constituency, which has a large number of areas of outstanding natural beauty. I know that the constituency of the hon. Member for Cambridge and Cambridgeshire have a significant number of areas with greenbelt protection, but we in Bedfordshire love our countryside too. It may not be classified as an area of outstanding natural beauty, and it may not be protected by the greenbelt, but we love it and want to protect it. We do not want a railway and more housing driven through it. The East West Rail announcement has sadly taken us backwards. It has left too many unresolved issues, and too much controversy and uncertainty. Much more work needs to be done before it gets any support from me.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House has considered the Bedford to Cambridge section of East West Rail.