Scotland: General Election and Constitutional Future

Paul Holmes Excerpts

Wednesday 17th March 2021 Commons Chamber

[Tommy Sheppard]

If the hon. Member does not mind, I am going to make some progress.

We need to consider what this Chamber’s response would be to that likely outcome. I do not take anything for granted. The campaign has not started; not a single vote has been cast, and I do not take anyone’s vote for granted. We will be arguing for this right until 10 o’clock on polling day. But I think people will want to know what the reaction of this Parliament here in Westminster would be if they were to take a decision saying that they wanted to have that choice again. That is why we need to be very careful about the language that is used by different opponents in this campaign. The way in which it is described will, in itself, condition how people vote on 6 May.

The only legitimate, proper and democratic response would be to say, “We disagree with the decision you’ve taken, but we respect your right to take it, and the British Government will therefore co-operate with the Scottish Government in trying to deliver on the wishes of the people freely and democratically expressed at the ballot box.” That is the reaction that I would hope to see. There are only two other possible responses. The first would be to say, “That process of election is not a sufficient democratic event to allow the choice of the people to be gauged, and therefore we won’t accept it”, in which case, those making that argument have to say by which mechanism people can resolve to go forward in this matter. The second other possible response would be, “Well, it doesn’t matter what the result was, because we do not respect that it is a decision for you to make.” That would be rejecting the claim of right, it would be rejecting the right of people in Scotland to make a choice, and it would take us into uncharted territory, because it would move the United Kingdom from being a multinational state built on the co-operation and consent of the people who live in its component parts, to being a state based on coercion of people throughout its borders to comply with things even if they disagree with them. That would be a completely different territory.

[Paul Holmes (Eastleigh) (Con)]

rose—

[Tommy Sheppard]

I am going to make this the last intervention, because I am going to have to get on.

[Paul Holmes]

I am quite surprised that the hon. Gentleman has not mentioned independence polls, because he used to like to do that—especially when today’s shows that 57% of people would vote against separation. Will he elaborate on what he attributes the Scottish people’s change of mind to?

[Tommy Sheppard]

I did not mention polls because I would have thought it is too obvious, is it not? We had 22 polls in a row that showed majority support for independence, so I think—[Interruption.] Well, the poll that matters is the one that takes place on 6 May. I think all of us can agree on that.

In moving on, I want to deal with some of the themes that will come up in this campaign. This is where I will rejoin some of the comments and questions that were made in earlier interventions. First, let me deal with this question—this mantra—of “once in a generation”. The Prime Minister has repeated it ad nauseam over the last 12 months. Sometimes, in some of the iterations in which he speaks, we would think that those words were on the ballot paper on 18 September 2014.

I accept that the phrase “once in a generation” was part of the debate, but let us at least be honest with each other about the context in which it was said. It was said, invariably, by those who were proposing a yes vote for independence as a caution to their supporters that they might not get another chance. It was not made as a promise or a qualification to those who opposed independence that it would go away forever.

We have dealt with who should decide whether there is another referendum, but the truth—and I fully accept it—is that, had the result on 18 September 2014 been decisive and had circumstances not changed, that might well have been the end of it, but things did change, opinion did change, and it is for the people of Scotland now to make this determination.

--- Later in debate ---

[Ian Murray]

I will be honest with the hon. Gentleman. The leaflet was delivered in Dumbarton and was posted on social media by the person who delivered it, so that is being honest with each other. Let me just say to him that I am very much in the same place as Sir John Curtice —we cannot extrapolate a single issue from a general election. It is disingenuous to suggest that we should turn this major election, the most important I think in Scotland’s devolution history, into whether or not we should have a referendum on another referendum.

[Paul Holmes]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Ian Murray]

Let me make a little progress.

Let me go to the biggest issue of all—currency. We have heard the same old arguments from the SNP time and again, so perhaps they can tell us something new. Let us be honest with each other. What on earth would the people be voting for? Let us take this issue of currency. If any SNP Members want to intervene on me and tell me what the answer is, I will give them the Floor for as long as they like.

The right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Ian Blackford), the Leader of the SNP in this House, promotes sterlingisation. He says that people should not worry—we will keep using the pound until such time as six tests are met, however long that would be. The hon. Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Angus Brendan MacNeil) tells us that they will only keep the pound for a few months. The SNP’s Deputy Leader, Keith Brown, says that they will keep the pound for less than five years. Andrew Wilson, the head of the SNP’s Growth Commission and a former SNP Finance Minister, says that it could be decade before we give up the pound. Does any SNP Member want to tell us exactly how long we will keep the pound? Is it a few months? Is it five years? Is it 10 years? Is it indefinitely? Will we keep it at all? Let us just be honest with each other if the SNP wants to turn this debate into a referendum on whether or not we have a referendum.

[Paul Holmes]

The hon. Gentleman is making an excellent case on the lack of clarity from the Scottish National party. But what he needs to be clear on to the Scottish people when he goes to the polls on 6 May is whether his party backs a referendum or not. We have been honest. SNP Members have been honest about what they want. Will he now be honest and say what his position is?

[Ian Murray]

The answer to the question is no.

On interest rates—[Interruption.] The Conservatives do this all the time. They deliberately misinterpret the Scottish Labour party’s policy in order to feather their own electoral nest. That is why they are putting the Union at risk and why they are a bigger threat to the UK than any nationalist.

Let me turn to the interest rate question. For as long as we do not have our own currency, the hon. Member for Glasgow East (David Linden), who is in the Chamber, thinks that we will still have a monetary and interest rate policy, but his own SNP Minister for Energy, Paul Wheelhouse MSP, said that, without a central bank or lender of last resort, we would have to take whatever interest rates were set. Can any SNP Member intervene and tell us who is right—the hon. Member for Glasgow East or the Scottish Government Minister?

That leads us to exchange rates. Let us try another one. The right hon. Member for Ross, Skye and Lochaber said that

“when we do have our own currency it has to be pegged against the pound sterling”,

but the hon. and learned Member for Edinburgh South West (Joanna Cherry) suggests that will not be the case because we would need to meet the exchange rate mechanism rules to enter the EU. Again, what is it? Is it that we would have to take our own exchange rate mechanism to qualify for the EU, or would we be pegged to sterling? Maybe the answer is none of the above. Could it be the euro, as the hon. Member for Stirling (Alyn Smith) said, or maybe Bitcoin, as the former SNP Member for East Lothian, George Kerevan, said—or, worse yet, our flexible friend? Will we all use our credit cards as if we were on holiday, as the SNP MSP Emma Harper suggested in a TV debate, when she said that we did not need a currency at all because we all used plastic anyway?

The position of SNP parliamentarians on these matters would be hilarious, were it not so serious. They want to take us out of the UK, regardless of the economic and social chaos that this would cause. This is about people’s jobs, mortgages and livelihoods. It is about our communities.

If SNP Members insist on focusing on separation instead of on how we get people back to work, how we lift families and children out of poverty, how we restart and properly value our NHS and how we lead a national effort to recover from this pandemic, they should at least be straight with the Scottish people about how separation will affect their jobs, livelihoods, health, education and opportunities for the future. They refuse to put forward the details of the separation proposition because the answers to these big questions are either unpalatable to the public or they actually do not know the answers.

--- Later in debate ---

[Paul Holmes (Eastleigh) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to speak as a proud Unionist in a debate on Scottish separation. The latest poll shows that 57% of people would vote against separation from the United Kingdom—what a ringing endorsement of the SNP’s record in Scotland that is! On 15 July, I spoke in another SNP debate on the issue of separation. As I said then, this is nothing more than a narrow-minded, party-focused, face-saving measure to cover its dire failures in government—and the Scottish people are fast becoming aware of that.

It is no surprise that the SNP wants to put “indyref 2” on the ballot paper, because the Scottish people know that the SNP’s record on domestic issues is catastrophic. In fact, its persistent calls for separation are the only transparent thing about the party. Let us take a quick snapshot of the SNP’s record in government. Aside from its misleading First Minister, the SNP has failed to pay out £200 million in business support. Before the pandemic, the SNP presided over the lowest rate of job creation in the UK. International PISA study results show that the Scottish education system has gone backwards. The SNP is refusing to publish a crucial review into its failed curriculum reforms. Most areas of Scotland have fewer police officers on the frontline since the failed merger. Violent crime in Scotland has been rising for the last five years. The SNP has missed its own legal emissions targets.

[David Linden]

Will the hon. Member give way?

[Paul Holmes]

No, I will not; I do not have much time.

The SNP said in 2014 that an independent Scotland would take 18 months to be set up. What a bizarre claim. No plan for how, and no detail on how—no chance when it comes to May. The SNP’s internal squabbles and factional infighting show that it has no plan for the people of Scotland, and it will make Scotland a poorer place by its obsession with separation, providing no detail on what that means for the people it supposedly serves. The people of Scotland are waking up to the way in which they are being let down by the SNP.

[Alan Brown]

It is good of the hon. Member to tell us what the people of Scotland are thinking at the moment. What is important is how they vote on 6 May. Again, if the people of Scotland vote for parties that have a referendum in their manifesto, surely the claim of right should be respected and the will of the Scottish people should be respected, and there will be a referendum.

[Paul Holmes]

I fully respect the right of the Scottish people. I respect the right of the decision that they made in 2014, and I wish that the hon. Gentleman would show the same respect to the people he serves by accepting that decision, which he and the leader of his party—who I know is in difficulty at the moment—claimed was a once-in-a-generation decision. They should abide by that and not try to mislead the Scottish people. In the next few weeks, I have every confidence that unity and progress will shine through, and many people in Scotland will vote Conservative to keep the Union together. Then, hopefully, the Scottish National party will be given the shock that it really needs.

--- Later in debate ---

[Paul Holmes]

My hon. Friend is a fantastic advocate for the Union. He says that it is not all about pounds and pence, but let us look at how much stronger we are together. The average per capita contribution to a constituency in England is £9,000. The average in Scotland is £11,000. Does that not show to the Scottish people that a United Kingdom, sharing prosperity and sharing Government income, is a good thing?

[Jerome Mayhew]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. It begs the question: if the separatists were successful in their game, left the United Kingdom and subsequently tried to join the European Union, what would they do with their structural deficit, which is more than twice the amount that is legally allowed for membership of the European Union?

I conclude with this thought. I am a mongrel, but I am proud of it. I am a mix of bloods and races from Scotland, Ireland, Wales and England. We are a mongrel nation and, like every mongrel, we are better and stronger for it.