Nick Timothy
Main Page: Nick Timothy (Conservative - West Suffolk)Department Debates - View all Nick Timothy's debates with the HM Treasury
(1 day, 13 hours ago)
Commons ChamberI assume the hon. Gentleman refers to the changes around employer national insurance, to which I will come in my remarks.
Let me be absolutely clear about the context: no responsible Government could have let things carry on the way they were. That was simply not a tenable situation and I think Conservative Members know that. That is why at the autumn Budget, we took the difficult but necessary decisions on welfare, spending and tax, and those decisions were vital steps towards restoring economic stability and fixing and supporting the public finances. As I said earlier, while Conservative Members have taken every opportunity to say they oppose those choices, they have yet to offer any solutions of their own. Difficult decisions were necessary, so let me set out why we made some of the choices that we did.
The Labour party manifesto said that by the year 2028-29, it would increase spending by £9.5 billion a year. Why, then, did the Budget increase it by £76 billion—eight times more than the Labour manifesto said?
As I am sure the hon. Member will know, upon entering Government and speaking to Treasury officials about the state of the public finances, we uncovered a £22 billion black hole, which was known to then Ministers but which the OBR was not informed about.
The Minister might have noticed that there is a bigger gap between £9.5 billion and £76 billion than £22 billion. His answer is clearly ridiculous. We are talking about such tax rises not because of the £22 billion fictional black hole, but because of the decision to increase spending by eight times more than the Labour party promised at the election. Will he accept that or not?
The hon. Member’s comments are clearly ridiculous if he thinks the £22 billion black hole was fictional. It has real-terms consequences in terms of the pressure—
I will make some progress as I have been very generous in giving way to the hon. Gentleman. He will know that his colleagues who were in government were aware of the in-year spending pressures and they chose not to share that with the Office for Budget Responsibility and thereby not to share it with the British people. That is the truth of what we inherited, and that is why we had to take difficult decisions.
I turn to some of the difficult decisions that we had to take in the Budget last year, because the Opposition motion refers to our decisions on business property relief. I assure hon. Members that the decisions we took on that and on agricultural property relief were not taken lightly. The Government recognise the role that those reliefs play, particularly in supporting small farms and family businesses, and that is why we chose to maintain rather than abolish them, which has meant maintaining significant levels of relief from inheritance tax beyond what is available to others. Indeed, the reliefs will remain more generous than the last time they were changed. The changes we are making mean that agricultural and business property reliefs will be better targeted and fairer.
According to the most recent data from His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, 40% of agricultural property relief benefits the top 7% of estates making claims. It is a similar picture for business property relief, with more than 50% of business property relief claimed by just 4% of estates making claims. Those data bear out the fact that the benefit of the existing 100% relief on business and agricultural assets has become heavily skewed towards the wealthiest estates.
It is neither fair nor sustainable to maintain such a large tax break for such a small number of the wealthiest claimants, particularly in the light of the wider pressures on the public finances. That is why we are changing how we target agricultural property relief and business property relief from April next year. Individuals will still benefit from the 100% relief for the first £1 million of combined business and agricultural assets. On top of that amount, there will be 50% relief, which means that inheritance tax will be paid at a reduced effective rate of up to 20%, rather than the standard 40%. That sits on top of the other spousal exemption and nil rate bands, which apply more widely within the inheritance tax system.
This debate has been held against the absurd backdrop of a Chancellor of the Exchequer writing to Government colleagues and begging regulators, desperately seeking advice on how to find economic growth, while the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero is deindustrialising the economy, the Home Office is welcoming fiscally negative immigration and the Department for Business and Trade is adding more than £5 billion a year in new costs to business in a single Act of Parliament. And the Government are whacking up taxes, including through the change to business property relief, because they broke their election promises as soon as they got into office.
In its manifesto, Labour promised the country that by 2028-29, it would increase spending by only £9.5 billion a year. It knew all the facts at that point, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer told the Financial Times, but just a few months later, Labour increased spending in the Budget by £76 billion a year, eight times more than promised in the manifesto. That is the reason for Labour’s broken tax promises, the higher taxes and the extra borrowing, not the poor excuses offered by the Minister earlier.
The hon. Gentleman is a little confused. Public spending is not increasing faster than I expected; it is increasing faster than his party told the country. That is the point.
The Treasury might not be what it once was, but even if we believed what the Minister said about the fictional black hole, which the Office for Budget Responsibility has disowned, £9.5 billion plus £22 billion does not reach even half of the £76 billion in extra Labour spending. I am not sure whether the Minister is listening, but he can intervene if he wants to explain himself at this point—he clearly is not.
What do we get for these extra taxes? The Home Office budget is being cut by 2.7% in real terms compared with last year. The Department for Transport budget is being cut by 2.5%, and its capital budget is being cut by 3.1%. That is economic illiteracy. This amounts to taxsterity —tax rises and spending cuts—to go with stagflation, or stagnation and inflation. That is Labour economics.
To be fair to the Labour Government, they have seen a surplus in self-assessment tax receipts, at £15 billion. The problem is that the OBR was expecting that to be £21 billion. We therefore have the prospect of them trying to find where we get that extra money from. The Government need to set out whether they are going to break their fiscal rules, cut public spending again, or increase taxes. Does my hon. Friend have any inclination on what they might choose, because I certainly have not heard anything?
Based on Labour’s track record, one would always bet on tax rises rather than fiscal responsibility.
The bond markets have taken a single look at the Chancellor’s fiscal plans and increased Britain’s borrowing costs, which means another Labour tax rise for all of us. Not one word in the speeches we have heard from Labour Members today recognised the cumulative damage caused by their Government’s policies. There is the national insurance jobs tax, hiking the cost of hiring staff by £900 for an employee on the average salary and costing businesses £25 billion in total. There is the business rates relief cut, from 75% to 40%, meaning that businesses will spend £2.7 billion extra a year by 2026-27.
There is the Employment Rights Bill, which, as I said, will cost businesses £5 billion a year, and probably more once the Government finally get their impact assessments right—normally Governments produce an impact assessment before a Bill is published, not after it has passed through all its stages in the House of Commons. There is the Energy Secretary, who wants to increase the carbon price higher than Europe’s and, according to the National Energy System Operator report that he constantly endorses, up to as much as £147 per tonne of carbon dioxide by 2030. As industry is lining up to tell the Government, that is yet another jobs killer. There are also, of course, the changes to business property relief that we have discussed today, which will cost £1.25 billion in lost revenue and mean 125,000 jobs lost by 2030.
Does my hon. Friend agree that the impacts of the changes to agricultural property relief and business property relief are already being felt by businesses across the country? Farmers are simply having to shelve investment for fear of a huge inheritance tax bill. That is affecting the wider rural economy, because no new machinery is coming and no new buildings are being built. It means fewer tax receipts for the Treasury, fewer jobs and a poorer United Kingdom.
I absolutely agree. I was baffled by the speeches of Labour Members; they were lining up to say that they had been meeting local businesses that were desperate to congratulate them on the tax rises that their Government are imposing on them. That is clearly ridiculous.
In my constituency of West Suffolk, I am proud to represent so many family businesses that contribute to the economy. The Hadley shipping group, owned by James Warwick, is one of the last remaining family-run shipping companies in Britain. The Claydon family has manufactured and exported world-class agricultural machinery since the 1980s. Wedge Group Galvanising in Haverhill is a leading business in hot-dip galvanising in Europe and beyond. We need those vibrant and successful family businesses to help us build again and, as my hon. Friend the Member for Bridlington and The Wolds (Charlie Dewhirst) has just said, they are telling us the same thing: that because of the policies of this Government, they are confronted with a choice between selling their business altogether, selling parts of their business or cutting much-needed investment.
I will conclude by saying that repeating the word “growth” in press releases, ministerial speeches and tweets does not make growth magically appear. Pummelling business, as this Government are doing, is the fastest route to killing growth and our prosperity.