Budget Resolutions

Mel Stride Excerpts

Thursday 7th March 2024 Commons Chamber

[The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (Mel Stride)]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. The right hon. Lady commenced her remarks by saying much about where Labour is on tax. She criticised the aspiration that the Government rightly have to abolish national insurance at some point in the future. She rather disingenuously repositioned that as a firm commitment, rather than an aspiration, but let us set that to one side.

The right hon. Lady knows all about firm commitments, because we had a firm commitment from her to £28 billion- worth of spending every year over the forecast period. That did not survive contact with reality. Indeed, she has little to say that is original. When she writes about economics, she has to cut and paste from Wikipedia. When she trumpeted her ruinous £28 billion spending plan, she ultimately had to U-turn and run for the hills. For this shadow Chancellor, when it is not cut and paste, it is cut and run. [Interruption.] I thought the right hon. Lady would like that.

The right hon. Lady has also accepted our tax measures as set out in yesterday’s Budget, including the abolition of non-dom status and the windfall tax on oil and gas. She has hypothecated the money raised from those two measures many times over—for the NHS, dentistry, breakfast clubs and so on. Now that she has accepted all the tax measures in the Budget, I invite her to come back to the Dispatch Box; I will give way to her if she will let us know whether she will U-turn again on her spending commitments on the NHS and dentistry, or whether she will put up taxes and borrowing. I would be very happy to hear from her—all right, perhaps not.

[Rushanara Ali]

When the Secretary of State was Chair of the Treasury Committee, he was keen on Office for Budget Responsibility assessments and forecasts. Indeed, he argued for them, but his then Prime Minister and Chancellor failed to listen to him and crashed the economy. He and his Government want to pursue the aspiration, as he now calls it, of scrapping national insurance contributions altogether, which would cost £48 billion a year. Will he commit to seeking an OBR forecast and assessment of that, and showing how the Government would pay for that?

[Mel Stride]

Let me talk about the general point that the right hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) made about the tax burden. It is as if history has been erased from her mind. The fact is that the covid pandemic shrank the economy overnight by 10%, and this Government stepped in, supported jobs, and saved 10 million jobs as a result of the intervention that we came forward with. It is as if it has been erased from her memory that a war is going on between Russia and Ukraine, and that that has led to an increase in energy prices and inflation. This Government have stepped in to support the most vulnerable in society, including families, pensioners, and the disabled up and down this country. The Government provided £400 billion of support across that period, and in all candour, I do not believe that there was a single occasion on which she opposed any of our interventions. She was up for spending the money to support people, but not up for recognising that it has to be repaid. That is why the tax burden is indeed increasing.

To go back to the point about the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook raised by the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow (Rushanara Ali), the OBR makes it clear that the measures taken yesterday in the Budget mean that the tax burden will be lower than was forecast in the autumn, as a result of the management of the economy and the reduction in taxes that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor brought forward.

[Lilian Greenwood (Nottingham South) (Lab)]

The Secretary of State might not be surprised that Labour Members take it a little unkindly when he suggests that we are forgetting the past, when he seems to have forgotten the immediate past, and the state that the former Prime Minister left the British economy in just a year ago. How much extra debt interest will the Government pay as a result of the Chancellor’s unfunded commitment to abolish national insurance contributions, at a cost of £46 billion?

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[Mel Stride]

It is an entirely disingenuous statement to say that there is any such unfunded commitment. The only unfunded commitment in recent times is the £28 billion that the Labour party came forward with; the Leader of the Opposition called it something along the lines of “absolutely critical”, only for the shadow Chancellor to U-turn on it not long afterwards.

Let me turn to the comments that the right hon. Member for Leeds West made about pensioners. She neglects to point out that we have stood by the triple lock. Since 2010, there have been 200,000 fewer pensioners in absolute poverty after housing costs. That is a result of this Government making the protection of our pensioners a key priority over many years. Among many things that have been erased from her memory, she has forgotten that on her watch, when Gordon Brown was Chancellor, there was the 75p increase in pensions.

[Michael Shanks (Rutherglen and Hamilton West) (Lab)]

This morning the Chancellor appeared to suggest that income tax and national insurance contributions will be merged as part of his commitment yesterday. As national insurance is not currently levied on some forms of income, will the Secretary of State confirm to the House how much extra tax pensioners will pay as a result of the Chancellor’s policy decisions?

[Mel Stride]

There is no immediate Government approach to merging income tax and national insurance, and I rather put that in the category of those comments about the apparent commitment of £46 billion, although I think the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow nudged it up in a typical Labour way to £48 billion a moment ago.

Let me turn to the remarks that the right hon. Member for Leeds West made about growth. As she knows, we have had a technical recession of two quarters of negative growth—one of which was the princely amount of 0.1%—and most of the purchasing managers index data makes it clear that the economy is on a very different path. Indeed, to return to the comments of the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow, the OBR makes it clear that over the period of the forecast, there will be reasonable and decent growth—greater than that of France, Italy and Germany. That is on the back of exactly the kind of growth record that this Government have had since 2010.

[Sir Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)]

On growth, it was the former Prime Minister, when seeking election as leader of her party, who characterised the growth record since 2010 as lamentable. She was surely absolutely right about that particular point.

[Mel Stride]

My point is that the externalities that I referred to, such as covid and the war between Ukraine and Russia, have impacted economies around the world. Relative to other economies, and looking at the OBR’s forecast over the next five years, we will have a growth record that is up there and better than many of our major competitors, including countries such as Germany.

[Matt Western (Warwick and Leamington) (Lab)]

To clarify a point that perhaps I have misunderstood, what is the growth per capita record for the last seven quarters?

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[Mel Stride]

My point clearly remains that growth is a function of both the size of the population and the level of productivity. As a consequence of all the elements that feed into growth, the OBR has confirmed that we will be growing a little faster at certain times than was anticipated at the time of the autumn statement, and our growth will compare favourably with countries such as Germany.

This debate is meant to be about making work pay, and the right hon. Member for Leeds West had very little —in fact, next to nothing—to say about that. [Interruption.] As she says from a sedentary position, she mentioned the national living wage—something the Conservative party is proud that it brought into being.

[Jonathan Reynolds (Stalybridge and Hyde) (Lab/Co-op)]

indicated dissent.

[Mel Stride]

You are thinking of the national minimum wage. The national living wage was a Conservative decision —[Interruption.] You did, but it is a pleasure to correct you on this occasion—[Interruption.]

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

Order. This is the problem with conversations across the Dispatch Box. It is very difficult for the Hansard writers to follow if we veer off into private conversations. It should all come through the Chair.

[Mel Stride]

I am sorry Madam Deputy Speaker, and I am sorry for Hansard, but it was quite enjoyable. This debate is about making work pay, and the right hon. Member for Leeds West had precious little to say about that. I wonder why that might be. Might it be because unemployment has always gone up under Labour Governments? That is a simple fact for her to think about. It rose by 1 million under the last Labour Government. Youth unemployment rose by 45% under the last Labour Government, and the number of households in which no one had ever worked doubled during the last Labour Government. I find it particularly striking that under Labour 1.4 million people spent almost a decade on out-of-work benefits. Labour should be ashamed of that record of its time in office.

[Jim McMahon (Oldham West and Royton) (Lab/Co-op)]

The Minister mentions making work pay, but Unison has pointed out that a number of social care workers are being disadvantaged because HMRC mileage rates have not changed since 2010. Does the Treasury not believe that the cost of running a motor vehicle has changed in the last 14 years?

[Mel Stride]

One of the principal costs of running a motor vehicle is the fuel in the tank. Because of our stewardship of the economy, the Chancellor was able to announce yesterday that we are freezing fuel duty for the 14th year in succession, as well as beer duty, to help those supporting our vital pubs.

Yesterday’s Budget sets the course for a brighter future for our country. It is a Budget for long-term growth, with more investment, more jobs and an economy that is turning the corner. That has allowed us to cut taxes because this Government believe in rewarding aspiration and hard work.

[Rushanara Ali]

I am incredibly grateful to the Minister for giving way a second time. I remind him that the tax burden has gone up by £27 billion in the last year, and it will go up by £19 billion after the election because of decisions his party made. People who earn less than £19,000 will be worse off because of the Budget. Two decades of lost pay growth—that is the record of his Government over the last 14 years.

[Mel Stride]

I thought I had already covered this point, but the reality is that the tax burden has had to go up to pay for all the support we provided around covid, and because of the inflationary pressures created by a war on European soil. The hon. Lady cannot get away from the fact that through this fiscal event, and the previous one, 27 million hard-working people, employed in businesses up and down the country, will be better off to the extent of £900 per year. Some 2 million self-employed people will be £650 per year better off. She talks about those earning less than £19,000, but those many millions of people who earn above £19,000 will have a lower tax burden than before, when we take into account the interplay of the freezing of thresholds and the cuts in national insurance.

[Stephen Kinnock (Aberavon) (Lab)]

It has been widely reported that the taxpayer is having to pick up the tab for £15,000 of legal costs and damages incurred because of the actions of the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, the right hon. Member for Chippenham (Michelle Donelan), who is rapidly becoming known as the hon. Member for “chipping in”. Will the Minister confirm that the figure of £15,000 is correct? Will he say whether he thinks it is morally right that the taxpayer should be picking up the bill for the outrageous lack of judgment and behaviour of one of his colleagues?

[Mel Stride]

What I think will be absolutely outrageous is the taxpayer having to pick up the bill for a future Labour Government. I have just explained the record of the hon. Gentleman’s party in government.

[Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend is making a good case for yesterday’s announcements in the Budget. He has dealt very thoroughly with Labour’s record when in office, but will he turn his attention to its present proposals? If Labour will not reverse the tax on non-doms or the cuts to national insurance, does that not leave a whopping £6.5 billion in uncosted expenditure pledges?

[Mel Stride]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. At the beginning of my speech, I invited the shadow Chancellor to explain to the House what she will do, given that the non-dom status will be abolished and windfall taxes on oil and gas will come forward. Will she once again U-turn and run for the hills, as she did with the £28 billion, or will she raise taxes or borrowing? Answer came there none.

[Karin Smyth (Bristol South) (Lab)]

When the Minister has time, he might want to read the shadow Chancellor’s speech in Hansard and help his colleagues who will be speaking later.

May I take him back to the subject of ordinary people? As a result of last year’s mini-Budget, people who remortgage are now paying £240 more—real money for them—than they were previously. If he does not accept that there is a £46 billion hole as a result of yesterday’s announcement, will he tell us what he thinks the figure is? Can he assure people who are remortgaging this year that they will not be further impacted by yesterday’s announcement and that there will not be a further scare on those markets?

[Mel Stride]

I can reassure all mortgage holders up and down the country that this Government are absolutely determined to see inflation return to its target. The OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook, published yesterday, makes it clear that we will meet the 2% target one year earlier than it forecast in the autumn. The significance of that for interest rates is obvious: interest rates will come down faster if inflation recedes quicker, and that is exactly what has happened.

[Alex Cunningham (Stockton North) (Lab)]

On that point, will the Minister give way?

[Mel Stride]

I have been very generous with my time, but how can I say no? I must then make some progress.

[Alex Cunningham]

The Minister is a decent man. The Government make much of getting value for money, but they have little to say about the handing over of Teesside’s greatest land asset to two private developers, who have since banked tens of millions of pounds in profits, leaving crumbs for the public. That is after the investment of £500 million of taxpayers’ money and no private investment. Is the Minister content with that, or does he believe, as his own Government’s inquiry into the Tees Mayor’s business dealings recommended, that the deal should be renegotiated?

[Mel Stride]

I will not get into the weeds of the issue that the hon. Gentleman is attempting to draw me into, other than to say that he made at least one comment that I agree with: I am indeed a decent man. I thank him very much for that.

Inflation is falling faster than expected. People’s wages are rising in real terms, and have done for the last seven months. Under this Government, our labour market has been strong and resilient, delivering opportunities despite the headwinds. We have put incentives at the heart of our welfare. We have grown faster than Germany, France or Italy. According to the OBR, we will continue to do so over the next five years. We are attracting the business investment that is key to growth, delivering high- quality jobs across the country—from Nissan to Google to AstraZeneca, which announced £650 million of investment only yesterday.

No matter how much the Labour party seeks to talk down Britain, the investment flowing into our economy is a huge vote of confidence in our country. It shows that our plan is working. By contrast, as has been laid all too bare this afternoon, the Labour party has no plan or credible record. I have already gone through the tale of woe about the level of unemployment that Labour has left us in the past. Those poor young people had a 45% increase in youth employment on the watch of the shadow Chancellor’s party, and over 1 million people were left on out-of-work benefits for almost a decade.

On the Government Benches, we believe that work, not welfare is key to improving living standards. That is why we are incentivising and rewarding work in this Budget. Making work pay and ensuring families are better off means tackling the global inflation that I have referred to, on which we are making significant progress. As inflation decreases, we recognise that there are still some people who need extra help. I was pleased to see the extension of the household support fund for a further six months from April, which was also pushed for by the Chair of the Work and Pensions Committee, the right hon. Member for East Ham (Sir Stephen Timms).

[Sir Stephen Timms]

The Minister is right that I warmly welcome that extension. Is there not a strong case for making the household support fund permanent, not just extending it for another six months?

[Mel Stride]

Six months is a meaningful period of time. Inflation is coming down. As the OBR says in its report, inflation is expected to hit target within the next few months, which will make a huge difference. It highlights some uncertainties around that, but £500 million of investment over six months, including Barnett consequentials, is a major move forward to support the most vulnerable.

The sustainable way to change lives is through work, and the evidence could not be clearer. It is good for the economy, communities and the individuals concerned. I want everyone who can work to have the opportunity to do so. One of the great labour market challenges is economic inactivity, and I want to put that into context. In the UK, inactivity has come down since its pandemic peak and remains lower than the average across the G7, the OECD and the European Union. Our progress has seen a significant fall in the number of people who are inactive because of caring responsibilities. We have the second lowest youth inactivity rate in the G7, and thousands of over-50s are returning to work.

However, the rise in the number of people out of work due to ill health and disability is stifling potential—potential that I am determined to realise. That is why, as we cut taxes for working people, our multibillion-pound back to work plan is providing substantial support to help the long-term sick return to work and keep people in the workforce. That includes doubling the number of placements on universal support, expanding access to mental health support, delivering Work Well, giving people earlier and better access to integrated work and health support, reforming fit notes and working with employers to improve occupational health. Through our next generation of welfare reforms, we are breaking down the barriers to work. Our chance to work guarantee will enable people on incapacity benefits to try work without fear of losing their benefits if a job does not work out. As the OBR has confirmed, our reforms to the work capability assessment will reduce the number of people on those benefits by 371,000. That is 371,000 more people getting the support they need to enter employment.

As part of our back to work plan, we are also tackling long-term unemployment, because the longer people stay in unemployment, the less likely they are to rejoin the workforce. That is why we are phasing in more rigorous requirements for fit and able jobseekers, with more time with work coaches, more intensive support and mandatory work placements. Ultimately, if a claimant does not engage with the support they are being offered, they will lose their benefits, underscoring our belief that we should always be there for those who need our support, but we must equally be fair to taxpayers.

By contrast, for all the protestations from the Opposition that they have changed, they are not fooling anybody. They are squeamish on conditionality, weak on sanctions and completely out of touch with the British public, who rightly expect a welfare system in which everyone meets their obligations.

[Rachel Maclean (Redditch) (Con)]

rose—

[Chi Onwurah]

rose—

[Mel Stride]

I am being asked to conclude, so I think I need to do that. [Interruption.] I have been pretty generous in giving way to just about everybody who has sought to catch my eye.

This is a Budget that rewards work and will grow the economy. It comes on the back of a once-in-a-century challenge that this Government have met. We have turned the corner, and this Budget takes us further still. It rewards work with lower taxes, it delivers growth, it makes work pay, and it ensures a brighter future for us all.

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

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[Liz Kendall (Leicester West) (Lab)]

Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker. Yesterday, the Conservative Government’s seventh Chancellor gave his second Budget—thankfully, the last before the general election. Ministers have repeatedly claimed that the economy has turned a corner, but they have driven it into a dead end. Our economy is smaller now than when the Prime Minister entered Downing Street. Not only was GDP per person down in every quarter last year, but it will be lower at the end of this year and lower, too, in four of the next five years. In this Parliament, we have had the biggest hit to living standards on record, and we have the highest tax burden for 70 years.

But people in this country do not need statistics to tell them the dire state we are in or that they are paying more but getting less. They see it every day in the higher cost of the weekly shop and in their gas and electricity bills. They see it in higher mortgages and rents and in soaring childcare costs. They see it in their crumbling school buildings and in the 8 am scramble to see their GP.

The argument I want to make today is that one of the central reasons why the Government have failed on the economy is that they have failed on work. For all the claims made by Ministers, the OBR lays bare the scale of their failure and the appalling cost to the British people.

The official unemployment rate is low, but that is not because a record proportion of people are in work. We are the only country in the G7 whose employment rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility revealed that our employment rate will be lower by the end of this year than it forecast in November; that the rate will be lower in five years’ time; and that in 2028-29 it will still not be back to where we were before the pandemic. That is the truth of what another five years of the Conservatives will bring.

The reality is that increasing numbers of people are leaving the labour market and not even looking for work. Whatever the Secretary of State says—he repeated it today—the OBR says that economic inactivity is increasing, not declining. It says that economic inactivity is proving more persistent than it previously thought. It is no longer declining from the post-pandemic high and has instead rebounded to a total of 9.3 million people—the highest in over a decade.

Much of the problem is driven by poor health, an issue raised by many hon. Members in this debate. On the Labour side of the House, we know that a healthy nation is critical to a healthy economy and that the Government are failing on both. Some 2.8 million people are now not in work because of long-term sickness—an all-time high. Many of them are over 50: often women struggling with bad hips, knees and other joints, often caring for elderly parents at the same time.

There has been an extremely worrying increase in young people out of work due to mental health problems, with many lacking basic qualifications. As the Centre for Cities has shown, all those problems are far worse in northern towns and cities, which the Conservatives promised to level up, but which have once again borne the brunt of their economic failure. In places such as Blackpool, Blackburn, Middlesbrough and Hull, if we include the hidden unemployed in the figures, it takes the official unemployment rate from 5% to 20%. The Labour party thinks that unacceptable.

The waste of individual potential is appalling, as hundreds of thousands of people who want to work are written off and denied help to get back on their feet. This is a waste for British businesses, which are desperate to recruit and need the talents of everyone in our country to grow and succeed. It is an appalling waste of taxpayers’ money, too. Over the next five years, 600,000 more people will be on sickness and disability benefit, which will cost an extra £33 billion—more than our day-to-day expenditure on defence.

The impact on our economy is profound. Yesterday, the OBR said that

“higher and rising levels of inactivity”

are offsetting increases in the size and growth of our population, and will leave GDP in five years’ time

“unchanged…and the level of GDP per person…lower.”

There it is in black and white: the Conservatives’ failure on work is a drag on the economy, a drag on growth, and a drag on living standards and money for our vital public services. That is not good enough.

[Mel Stride]

rose—

[Liz Kendall]

I will willingly take an intervention.

[Mel Stride]

I thank the hon. Lady. She is rightly not happy with the level of economic inactivity; that is why we are bearing down on it. Given that the level of economic inactivity was higher during every year of the last Labour Government, would she like to comment on their record on it?

[Liz Kendall]

I will not take any lessons from a Government who are overseeing economic inactivity at record levels. The number of people out of work due to sickness is at a record level, resulting in soaring costs for individuals and livelihoods. If I were the Secretary of State, I would put in place a proper plan for reform, not offer half-baked programmes, rehashed and re-announced schemes, and more of the same empty rhetoric on benefits.

[Mel Stride]

If our plans are half-baked and rehashed, why has the OBR confirmed that by the end of the forecast period, 371,000 fewer people will be receiving the long-term sickness and incapacity benefits to which the hon. Lady refers? If our plans are half-baked, why will 371,000 fewer people be on those benefits?

[Liz Kendall]

The OBR says that there will be 600,000 more people on those benefits, and the total cost will be £33 billion. The Secretary of State tries to deny that the schemes are rehashed. Well, let us look at the reform to fit notes announced in 2023. Back in 2017, what did the Chancellor, then Health Secretary, announce? Reform to fit notes, taking them beyond GPs. The Government recently announced that there will be mandatory work placements. In 2011, what did they announce? A mandatory work activity programme. In 2017, the current Chancellor, as Health Secretary, said:

“We will appoint an Expert Working Group on occupational health.”

They are the same policies with the same failure. It is absolutely time for a change.

We do not have to go down this road; we can choose a different path. Under a Labour Government, we will do so. Our back to work plan will tackle the root causes of worklessness by driving down waits for NHS treatment, and we will recruit 8,500 more mental health staff. We will ensure that employment support is tailored to individual and local needs, by overhauling jobcentres to end the tick-box culture, and devolving employment support to local areas. In every part of the country, we will create more good jobs in clean energy and through our modern industrial strategy. We will make work pay and improve the quality of work, by ensuring a genuine living wage, banning exploitative zero-hours contracts, and strengthening rights to flexible working. And we will do more.

There are now 850,000 under-24s who are not in education, employment or training—one in eight of all our young people. That is a terrible waste for them and for our country as a whole. Given that half of all mental health problems start before people turn 14, we have to intervene earlier, so the first part of our offer to young people is about providing specialist mental health support in every school, and walk-in access in every community. That way, we will tackle one of the key drivers of worklessness before it takes hold. Secondly, we will deliver 1,000 new careers advisers, and good-quality work experience, so that young people leave school ready for work and ready for life.

Thirdly, we will overhaul skills by creating new technical excellence colleges and reforming the Tories’ failed apprenticeship levy, which has seen apprenticeship starts by young people fall by a third. Our new growth and skills levy will help young people to get the skills that they need, including by offering them a second chance at basic skills and pre-apprenticeship training if they did not get the right qualifications at school. Fourthly, we will provide new employment advisers for young people in our young futures hubs. They will offer joined-up specialist help and support, because the old, one-size-fits-all approach will not work when it comes to tackling this problem. Finally, we will overhaul access to work for young disabled people who want to work, so that they know what equipment, adaptations or personal support they will get before they start, giving them the confidence to take the plunge.

Our proposals are fully costed and funded, and will be paid for by scrapping tax breaks for private schools and closing the tax loopholes enjoyed by private equity fund managers. That is our offer to young people. This year, they and the rest of the British public face a choice: another five years of stagnation, low growth, high costs and worklessness under the Tories, or a long-term plan to get Britain building again, growing again and working again under Labour. The public know it is time for change. Let us have an election, and let us have the guts to have it now.