The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (Mel Stride)
Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. The right hon. Lady commenced her remarks by saying much about where Labour is on tax. She criticised the aspiration that the Government rightly have to abolish national insurance at some point in the future. She rather disingenuously repositioned that as a firm commitment, rather than an aspiration, but let us set that to one side.
The right hon. Lady knows all about firm commitments, because we had a firm commitment from her to £28 billion- worth of spending every year over the forecast period. That did not survive contact with reality. Indeed, she has little to say that is original. When she writes about economics, she has to cut and paste from Wikipedia. When she trumpeted her ruinous £28 billion spending plan, she ultimately had to U-turn and run for the hills. For this shadow Chancellor, when it is not cut and paste, it is cut and run. [Interruption.] I thought the right hon. Lady would like that.
The right hon. Lady has also accepted our tax measures as set out in yesterday’s Budget, including the abolition of non-dom status and the windfall tax on oil and gas. She has hypothecated the money raised from those two measures many times over—for the NHS, dentistry, breakfast clubs and so on. Now that she has accepted all the tax measures in the Budget, I invite her to come back to the Dispatch Box; I will give way to her if she will let us know whether she will U-turn again on her spending commitments on the NHS and dentistry, or whether she will put up taxes and borrowing. I would be very happy to hear from her—all right, perhaps not.
Rushanara Ali
When the Secretary of State was Chair of the Treasury Committee, he was keen on Office for Budget Responsibility assessments and forecasts. Indeed, he argued for them, but his then Prime Minister and Chancellor failed to listen to him and crashed the economy. He and his Government want to pursue the aspiration, as he now calls it, of scrapping national insurance contributions altogether, which would cost £48 billion a year. Will he commit to seeking an OBR forecast and assessment of that, and showing how the Government would pay for that?
Mel Stride
Let me talk about the general point that the right hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) made about the tax burden. It is as if history has been erased from her mind. The fact is that the covid pandemic shrank the economy overnight by 10%, and this Government stepped in, supported jobs, and saved 10 million jobs as a result of the intervention that we came forward with. It is as if it has been erased from her memory that a war is going on between Russia and Ukraine, and that that has led to an increase in energy prices and inflation. This Government have stepped in to support the most vulnerable in society, including families, pensioners, and the disabled up and down this country. The Government provided £400 billion of support across that period, and in all candour, I do not believe that there was a single occasion on which she opposed any of our interventions. She was up for spending the money to support people, but not up for recognising that it has to be repaid. That is why the tax burden is indeed increasing.
To go back to the point about the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook raised by the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow (Rushanara Ali), the OBR makes it clear that the measures taken yesterday in the Budget mean that the tax burden will be lower than was forecast in the autumn, as a result of the management of the economy and the reduction in taxes that my right hon. Friend the Chancellor brought forward.
Lilian Greenwood (Nottingham South) (Lab)
The Secretary of State might not be surprised that Labour Members take it a little unkindly when he suggests that we are forgetting the past, when he seems to have forgotten the immediate past, and the state that the former Prime Minister left the British economy in just a year ago. How much extra debt interest will the Government pay as a result of the Chancellor’s unfunded commitment to abolish national insurance contributions, at a cost of £46 billion?
Mel Stride
It is an entirely disingenuous statement to say that there is any such unfunded commitment. The only unfunded commitment in recent times is the £28 billion that the Labour party came forward with; the Leader of the Opposition called it something along the lines of “absolutely critical”, only for the shadow Chancellor to U-turn on it not long afterwards.
Let me turn to the comments that the right hon. Member for Leeds West made about pensioners. She neglects to point out that we have stood by the triple lock. Since 2010, there have been 200,000 fewer pensioners in absolute poverty after housing costs. That is a result of this Government making the protection of our pensioners a key priority over many years. Among many things that have been erased from her memory, she has forgotten that on her watch, when Gordon Brown was Chancellor, there was the 75p increase in pensions.
Michael Shanks (Rutherglen and Hamilton West) (Lab)
This morning the Chancellor appeared to suggest that income tax and national insurance contributions will be merged as part of his commitment yesterday. As national insurance is not currently levied on some forms of income, will the Secretary of State confirm to the House how much extra tax pensioners will pay as a result of the Chancellor’s policy decisions?
Mel Stride
There is no immediate Government approach to merging income tax and national insurance, and I rather put that in the category of those comments about the apparent commitment of £46 billion, although I think the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow nudged it up in a typical Labour way to £48 billion a moment ago.
Let me turn to the remarks that the right hon. Member for Leeds West made about growth. As she knows, we have had a technical recession of two quarters of negative growth—one of which was the princely amount of 0.1%—and most of the purchasing managers index data makes it clear that the economy is on a very different path. Indeed, to return to the comments of the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow, the OBR makes it clear that over the period of the forecast, there will be reasonable and decent growth—greater than that of France, Italy and Germany. That is on the back of exactly the kind of growth record that this Government have had since 2010.
Sir Stephen Timms (East Ham) (Lab)
On growth, it was the former Prime Minister, when seeking election as leader of her party, who characterised the growth record since 2010 as lamentable. She was surely absolutely right about that particular point.
Mel Stride
My point is that the externalities that I referred to, such as covid and the war between Ukraine and Russia, have impacted economies around the world. Relative to other economies, and looking at the OBR’s forecast over the next five years, we will have a growth record that is up there and better than many of our major competitors, including countries such as Germany.
Matt Western (Warwick and Leamington) (Lab)
To clarify a point that perhaps I have misunderstood, what is the growth per capita record for the last seven quarters?
Mel Stride
My point clearly remains that growth is a function of both the size of the population and the level of productivity. As a consequence of all the elements that feed into growth, the OBR has confirmed that we will be growing a little faster at certain times than was anticipated at the time of the autumn statement, and our growth will compare favourably with countries such as Germany.
This debate is meant to be about making work pay, and the right hon. Member for Leeds West had very little —in fact, next to nothing—to say about that. [Interruption.] As she says from a sedentary position, she mentioned the national living wage—something the Conservative party is proud that it brought into being.
Mel Stride
You are thinking of the national minimum wage. The national living wage was a Conservative decision —[Interruption.] You did, but it is a pleasure to correct you on this occasion—[Interruption.]
Madam Deputy Speaker (Dame Rosie Winterton)
Order. This is the problem with conversations across the Dispatch Box. It is very difficult for the Hansard writers to follow if we veer off into private conversations. It should all come through the Chair.
Mel Stride
I am sorry Madam Deputy Speaker, and I am sorry for Hansard, but it was quite enjoyable. This debate is about making work pay, and the right hon. Member for Leeds West had precious little to say about that. I wonder why that might be. Might it be because unemployment has always gone up under Labour Governments? That is a simple fact for her to think about. It rose by 1 million under the last Labour Government. Youth unemployment rose by 45% under the last Labour Government, and the number of households in which no one had ever worked doubled during the last Labour Government. I find it particularly striking that under Labour 1.4 million people spent almost a decade on out-of-work benefits. Labour should be ashamed of that record of its time in office.
Jim McMahon (Oldham West and Royton) (Lab/Co-op)
The Minister mentions making work pay, but Unison has pointed out that a number of social care workers are being disadvantaged because HMRC mileage rates have not changed since 2010. Does the Treasury not believe that the cost of running a motor vehicle has changed in the last 14 years?
Mel Stride
One of the principal costs of running a motor vehicle is the fuel in the tank. Because of our stewardship of the economy, the Chancellor was able to announce yesterday that we are freezing fuel duty for the 14th year in succession, as well as beer duty, to help those supporting our vital pubs.
Yesterday’s Budget sets the course for a brighter future for our country. It is a Budget for long-term growth, with more investment, more jobs and an economy that is turning the corner. That has allowed us to cut taxes because this Government believe in rewarding aspiration and hard work.
Rushanara Ali
I am incredibly grateful to the Minister for giving way a second time. I remind him that the tax burden has gone up by £27 billion in the last year, and it will go up by £19 billion after the election because of decisions his party made. People who earn less than £19,000 will be worse off because of the Budget. Two decades of lost pay growth—that is the record of his Government over the last 14 years.
Mel Stride
I thought I had already covered this point, but the reality is that the tax burden has had to go up to pay for all the support we provided around covid, and because of the inflationary pressures created by a war on European soil. The hon. Lady cannot get away from the fact that through this fiscal event, and the previous one, 27 million hard-working people, employed in businesses up and down the country, will be better off to the extent of £900 per year. Some 2 million self-employed people will be £650 per year better off. She talks about those earning less than £19,000, but those many millions of people who earn above £19,000 will have a lower tax burden than before, when we take into account the interplay of the freezing of thresholds and the cuts in national insurance.
Stephen Kinnock (Aberavon) (Lab)
It has been widely reported that the taxpayer is having to pick up the tab for £15,000 of legal costs and damages incurred because of the actions of the Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, the right hon. Member for Chippenham (Michelle Donelan), who is rapidly becoming known as the hon. Member for “chipping in”. Will the Minister confirm that the figure of £15,000 is correct? Will he say whether he thinks it is morally right that the taxpayer should be picking up the bill for the outrageous lack of judgment and behaviour of one of his colleagues?
Mel Stride
What I think will be absolutely outrageous is the taxpayer having to pick up the bill for a future Labour Government. I have just explained the record of the hon. Gentleman’s party in government.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
My right hon. Friend is making a good case for yesterday’s announcements in the Budget. He has dealt very thoroughly with Labour’s record when in office, but will he turn his attention to its present proposals? If Labour will not reverse the tax on non-doms or the cuts to national insurance, does that not leave a whopping £6.5 billion in uncosted expenditure pledges?
Mel Stride
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. At the beginning of my speech, I invited the shadow Chancellor to explain to the House what she will do, given that the non-dom status will be abolished and windfall taxes on oil and gas will come forward. Will she once again U-turn and run for the hills, as she did with the £28 billion, or will she raise taxes or borrowing? Answer came there none.
Karin Smyth (Bristol South) (Lab)
When the Minister has time, he might want to read the shadow Chancellor’s speech in Hansard and help his colleagues who will be speaking later.
May I take him back to the subject of ordinary people? As a result of last year’s mini-Budget, people who remortgage are now paying £240 more—real money for them—than they were previously. If he does not accept that there is a £46 billion hole as a result of yesterday’s announcement, will he tell us what he thinks the figure is? Can he assure people who are remortgaging this year that they will not be further impacted by yesterday’s announcement and that there will not be a further scare on those markets?
Mel Stride
I can reassure all mortgage holders up and down the country that this Government are absolutely determined to see inflation return to its target. The OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook, published yesterday, makes it clear that we will meet the 2% target one year earlier than it forecast in the autumn. The significance of that for interest rates is obvious: interest rates will come down faster if inflation recedes quicker, and that is exactly what has happened.
Alex Cunningham (Stockton North) (Lab)
On that point, will the Minister give way?
Mel Stride
I have been very generous with my time, but how can I say no? I must then make some progress.
Alex Cunningham
The Minister is a decent man. The Government make much of getting value for money, but they have little to say about the handing over of Teesside’s greatest land asset to two private developers, who have since banked tens of millions of pounds in profits, leaving crumbs for the public. That is after the investment of £500 million of taxpayers’ money and no private investment. Is the Minister content with that, or does he believe, as his own Government’s inquiry into the Tees Mayor’s business dealings recommended, that the deal should be renegotiated?
Mel Stride
I will not get into the weeds of the issue that the hon. Gentleman is attempting to draw me into, other than to say that he made at least one comment that I agree with: I am indeed a decent man. I thank him very much for that.
Inflation is falling faster than expected. People’s wages are rising in real terms, and have done for the last seven months. Under this Government, our labour market has been strong and resilient, delivering opportunities despite the headwinds. We have put incentives at the heart of our welfare. We have grown faster than Germany, France or Italy. According to the OBR, we will continue to do so over the next five years. We are attracting the business investment that is key to growth, delivering high- quality jobs across the country—from Nissan to Google to AstraZeneca, which announced £650 million of investment only yesterday.
No matter how much the Labour party seeks to talk down Britain, the investment flowing into our economy is a huge vote of confidence in our country. It shows that our plan is working. By contrast, as has been laid all too bare this afternoon, the Labour party has no plan or credible record. I have already gone through the tale of woe about the level of unemployment that Labour has left us in the past. Those poor young people had a 45% increase in youth employment on the watch of the shadow Chancellor’s party, and over 1 million people were left on out-of-work benefits for almost a decade.
On the Government Benches, we believe that work, not welfare is key to improving living standards. That is why we are incentivising and rewarding work in this Budget. Making work pay and ensuring families are better off means tackling the global inflation that I have referred to, on which we are making significant progress. As inflation decreases, we recognise that there are still some people who need extra help. I was pleased to see the extension of the household support fund for a further six months from April, which was also pushed for by the Chair of the Work and Pensions Committee, the right hon. Member for East Ham (Sir Stephen Timms).
Sir Stephen Timms
The Minister is right that I warmly welcome that extension. Is there not a strong case for making the household support fund permanent, not just extending it for another six months?
Mel Stride
Six months is a meaningful period of time. Inflation is coming down. As the OBR says in its report, inflation is expected to hit target within the next few months, which will make a huge difference. It highlights some uncertainties around that, but £500 million of investment over six months, including Barnett consequentials, is a major move forward to support the most vulnerable.
The sustainable way to change lives is through work, and the evidence could not be clearer. It is good for the economy, communities and the individuals concerned. I want everyone who can work to have the opportunity to do so. One of the great labour market challenges is economic inactivity, and I want to put that into context. In the UK, inactivity has come down since its pandemic peak and remains lower than the average across the G7, the OECD and the European Union. Our progress has seen a significant fall in the number of people who are inactive because of caring responsibilities. We have the second lowest youth inactivity rate in the G7, and thousands of over-50s are returning to work.
However, the rise in the number of people out of work due to ill health and disability is stifling potential—potential that I am determined to realise. That is why, as we cut taxes for working people, our multibillion-pound back to work plan is providing substantial support to help the long-term sick return to work and keep people in the workforce. That includes doubling the number of placements on universal support, expanding access to mental health support, delivering Work Well, giving people earlier and better access to integrated work and health support, reforming fit notes and working with employers to improve occupational health. Through our next generation of welfare reforms, we are breaking down the barriers to work. Our chance to work guarantee will enable people on incapacity benefits to try work without fear of losing their benefits if a job does not work out. As the OBR has confirmed, our reforms to the work capability assessment will reduce the number of people on those benefits by 371,000. That is 371,000 more people getting the support they need to enter employment.
As part of our back to work plan, we are also tackling long-term unemployment, because the longer people stay in unemployment, the less likely they are to rejoin the workforce. That is why we are phasing in more rigorous requirements for fit and able jobseekers, with more time with work coaches, more intensive support and mandatory work placements. Ultimately, if a claimant does not engage with the support they are being offered, they will lose their benefits, underscoring our belief that we should always be there for those who need our support, but we must equally be fair to taxpayers.
By contrast, for all the protestations from the Opposition that they have changed, they are not fooling anybody. They are squeamish on conditionality, weak on sanctions and completely out of touch with the British public, who rightly expect a welfare system in which everyone meets their obligations.
Mel Stride
I am being asked to conclude, so I think I need to do that. [Interruption.] I have been pretty generous in giving way to just about everybody who has sought to catch my eye.
This is a Budget that rewards work and will grow the economy. It comes on the back of a once-in-a-century challenge that this Government have met. We have turned the corner, and this Budget takes us further still. It rewards work with lower taxes, it delivers growth, it makes work pay, and it ensures a brighter future for us all.
Rachel Maclean (Redditch) (Con)
It is a privilege to follow the previous speakers, and the hon. Member for Bethnal Green and Bow (Rushanara Ali). Today’s theme is making work pay. I believe that this is one of the key challenges facing our country. Conservatives believe in conserving, but what is it that we seek to conserve? In a word, freedom. As Ronald Reagan said:
“Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same”.
There is nothing more important to the cause of individual freedom for human beings than the opportunity to work. It is the only moral way to achieve financial security. It is the path to a better life. It is not the meaning of life, but there is no meaning in life without work. It is:
“The force that through the green fuse drives the flower”,
as Dylan Thomas said.
God put Adam and Eve on Earth to work. I believe that was a wise decision, because good, hard, challenging, stressful and important work, done well, makes people happy and purposeful. It is not just a means to an end for generating taxes; the true gifts of life are to be found in the struggle on the hard road. We Conservatives are not blind to the reality of human nature. We do not pretend that people are not motivated by financial incentives. It is not selfish to want to earn more for ourselves and to work hard for it. I believe that in the Budget that was set out yesterday by the Chancellor, Mrs Thatcher would have found much to be pleased with. In 1975, she said that
“the person who is prepared to work hardest should get the greatest rewards and keep them after tax…we should back the workers and not the shirkers…it is not only permissible but praiseworthy to want to benefit your own family by your own efforts”.
How right she was in 1975, and how right we are as Conservatives to do that now.
That is why I welcome the Budget measures, especially the cut in national insurance, which will save the average worker £900, and the average self-employed worker—we have a lot of them in Redditch—£650 per year. Combined with the changes to high-income child benefit and the childcare support that we have previously talked about, the reduction in inflation, and the economy starting to turn a corner after a very difficult time, I know that those measures will be welcomed by hard-pressed families in Redditch juggling work and home life.
Of course, the welfare state and benefits are necessary in today’s world. Our fellow citizens rely on us when they are sick, or struck down by life’s blows, or cannot sustain themselves, but the pandemic has had a worrying impact, and I have seen a loosening of the links of the social contract between all our citizens as a result. We cannot ask a shrinking pool of workers to pay out of their taxes for a growing cohort of people who cannot or will not work. Benefits must only ever be a last resort for those truly unable to work—never a lifestyle choice caused by faulty wiring in our system.
It is tempting to view the Budget as a single event. It happens over a day, and there are headlines in the media. We look at it through the obsessive lens of our 24-hour news cycle and social media feeds, but we should not judge it in that way, and nor should we look at the events happening in our country as unique. We are not an outlier. Every country around the world has suffered from the pandemic, and the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. As my hon. Friend the Member for Thurrock (Dame Jackie Doyle-Price) rightly said, the public are not fooled—they definitely understand and can see what is going on. They can also see that, over the course of 14 years, it is the Conservatives who have made huge strides in reversing Labour’s “something for nothing” culture. We have ensured that welfare is truly targeted at the people who really need it, meaning that we can be more generous to really vulnerable citizens.
After all, Keith Joseph first articulated the concept of the cycle of deprivation, and he set about helping people to break out of it. A Conservative Government implemented the life-changing universal credit reforms so successfully being rolled out across our country. Those reforms were conceived and led by my right hon. Friend the Member for Chingford and Woodford Green (Sir Iain Duncan Smith). That was the true genesis of the value that work must always pay.
Every time we have made reforms to welfare, the Opposition parties have howled that we are cruel and heartless. It is totally fake outrage. The true moral failure is to let people languish on benefits and not expect any better from them. That is Labour’s legacy, and we saw record levels of unemployment in every age group when they last left office, in particular among young people and women. We were prepared to take the hard decisions about universal credit. I have the scars on my back from standing here to defend the Government’s decisions at the time. But guess what? The apocalypse did not arrive.
Instead, we now see record numbers of people in work, including record numbers of women and record numbers of women over 50. Government analysis has consistently shown that universal credit is having a positive impact on labour market participation for all groups, including single parents and other vulnerable groups who face the most barriers when returning to work.
Jim McMahon
Most people who experience the benefits system will understand and support the need for a more simplified one that works around working people. The hon. Lady must also accept, however, that that was not the design of universal credit that met such opposition. The five-week wait limit before entitlement was drawn, for example, meant that people were getting into debt unnecessarily when they were entitled to the benefit earlier. She must accept that even given the principle of a simplified system, the way it was done was not right.
Rachel Maclean
I do not accept that, and I do not wish to rerun all the previous debates. The Government have listened to a lot of the issues involved in the roll-out of an incredibly complicated system, and the evidence speaks for itself. Universal credit has helped more people get into work, and work is always the best route out of poverty.
Before I move on, I will make a few comments about mental health conditions. A category of people in our country are the economically inactive, which is sad to me and many of us, because those people are fundamentally not free—they are dependent on the state. My concern is that the number of working-age adults who are out of the labour market because of long-term sickness has been rising since 2019, from about 2.2 million people then to about 2.5 million in the summer of 2022. I understand that that started before the covid pandemic.
The biggest relative jump in economic inactivity due to long-term sickness is among the under-35s, whose main complaints are depression, bad nerves or anxiety. I have two psychology degrees, and I fully understand mental illness and mental ill health. I also believe in using words precisely. I am therefore alarmed to see the conflation of the terms depression and anxiety together with “bad nerves”. Bad nerves? Both anxiety and depression are clinically recognised conditions; bad nerves is not.
Government statistics, obtained following several questions that I posed to the Department, do not break down the number of people self-reporting under each condition, and there is no data or information on how that concept of bad nerves is defined, assessed, treated, understood or prevented as a separate condition from depression and anxiety. That is because there cannot be. Having “bad nerves” is a totally meaningless phrase. No one knows what it is, so how can people decide if they are unfit to work if they have it? I have bad nerves about standing to speak in this Chamber, and my constituents have bad nerves when they are navigating the day-to-day challenges of juggling work and family. The phrase sounds like something out of a good housewife manual in the 1950s.
I simply do not believe, frankly, that bad nerves is a reason to be on sickness benefits, and yet figures from the labour force survey indicate that 1.3 million people are economically inactive due to some combination of bad nerves, anxiety and depression. We do not know how many are off because of each condition or how many are off because of bad nerves. I think it would be a good idea for the Department and the Ministers I can see on the Front Bench to understand on a more granular level what conditions are preventing our constituents getting back into work, so that we can target more efficiently the taxes of our constituents who are working hard for long hours and paying into the system, so ultimately reducing the bill.
Alex Cunningham
Did the hon. Lady detect anywhere in the Chancellor’s statement or the Red Book where he actually says, “We will put more resources into dealing with mental health services”?
Rachel Maclean
Over my time as a Member of Parliament, I have detected many statements by many Ministers on the Treasury Bench about investing in mental health services and back to work services, nationally and in my constituency. Redditch has a brand-new local mental health hub, delivered by the Conservative Government, and the Conservative borough council led by the excellent Mr Matt Dormer.
It is worth observing that a total of 2.6 million people reporting those conditions are actually in work, and that is a credit to our mission to support people back into work, which ultimately is the best way to improve their mental health. I have a concern that following the pandemic, we have possibly seen a trend to over-medicalise some of the normal ups and downs of daily life. It is almost as though it were possible to live in a state of blissful utopia and that if there were any interruption to paradise, that is a condition requiring help. That is just not true.
The struggle of life defines us and builds our character. Taking away individuals’ opportunity and responsibility to face their fears by overprotecting them is the worst way to develop resilience, as any parent knows. The human condition is a state, mostly, of pain and fear. If we are fortunate, we will experience love and happiness in some small interludes, and we must appreciate those.
I want to be very clear, however, that I do not criticise anyone who is suffering from any mental health condition —I do not—including bad nerves, whatever that is. If we have a poorly designed system with poor labelling, it is not people’s fault if they respond to the structural incentives that we have designed, but we must not have bogus, badly defined phrases and cod psychology as a pathway to a lifetime on benefits. I really hope that the Minister will return to that in the summing up.
Danny Kruger
My hon. Friend is giving a very brave and eloquent speech. Does she agree that there is a real problem with overprescription in the NHS? Doctors of people who have mental health difficulties respond too quickly with a chemical response. In fact, what would often be best is to encourage them either to work or to take part in social activities, which the Government support through the social prescribing programme.
Rachel Maclean
I thank my hon. Friend for that observation. I hesitate to agree with him definitively, because I just do not have the evidence, but I strongly agree with the basic point that we should not reach straight for the chemical solution. We should look at other solutions that are clinically much better for people, including the social prescribing to which he refers.
I could highlight many issues in the Budget that I know would be welcomed in Redditch. I have campaigned long and hard for the Alex hospital and the Conservatives have delivered an £18.8 million operating complex, now open, ensuring that we are making progress in cutting the waiting lists. People can get operations closer to home and can get home quicker, and they can have more lifesaving surgery closer to their homes. I was glad to see the emphasis yesterday on productivity gains in the NHS, as well as pouring in money. Constituents know that healthcare is expensive and valuable. Staff time and public resources must be properly stewarded and not wasted.
Yesterday, there was an unexpected but welcome announcement—a delightful one—by the Chancellor: £5 million to spend in Redditch on cultural projects. That will be massively welcomed in our area, where the arts play a huge part in our local life. I will talk to local and community groups about how we can best use that. We have plenty of potential destinations, including the Palace theatre, Arts in Redditch, our new library complex—also boosted by Government levelling-up funding—and many more.
I am particularly proud of the record of my local council, which is led by Councillor Matt Dormer, who instigated a council house building programme that has delivered 19 council houses. I always appreciate the fact that we need to go further, but that is a significant move because they are the first true council houses built in Redditch for 29 years. For all the years that it was in control, Labour did not build a single council house, even though they are much needed.
Rachel Maclean
I am glad to hear the “Hear, hear” from behind me. We all know that those council houses are a route for local families to have a decent home, put down roots, build and raise their families and better themselves through work. It is a platform for the life that they can build for themselves—that is the Conservative way.
Ultimately, I observe that, as Roger Scruton reminded us:
“A free economy is an economy run by free beings. And free beings are responsible beings.”
Our plan for work is making our country a place for free and responsible people to realise their full potential. It sets out a pathway to freedom through work, and it will make work pay. I strongly welcome it and will back it in the voting Lobbies.
Liz Kendall (Leicester West) (Lab)
Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker. Yesterday, the Conservative Government’s seventh Chancellor gave his second Budget—thankfully, the last before the general election. Ministers have repeatedly claimed that the economy has turned a corner, but they have driven it into a dead end. Our economy is smaller now than when the Prime Minister entered Downing Street. Not only was GDP per person down in every quarter last year, but it will be lower at the end of this year and lower, too, in four of the next five years. In this Parliament, we have had the biggest hit to living standards on record, and we have the highest tax burden for 70 years.
But people in this country do not need statistics to tell them the dire state we are in or that they are paying more but getting less. They see it every day in the higher cost of the weekly shop and in their gas and electricity bills. They see it in higher mortgages and rents and in soaring childcare costs. They see it in their crumbling school buildings and in the 8 am scramble to see their GP.
The argument I want to make today is that one of the central reasons why the Government have failed on the economy is that they have failed on work. For all the claims made by Ministers, the OBR lays bare the scale of their failure and the appalling cost to the British people.
The official unemployment rate is low, but that is not because a record proportion of people are in work. We are the only country in the G7 whose employment rate has not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Yesterday, the Office for Budget Responsibility revealed that our employment rate will be lower by the end of this year than it forecast in November; that the rate will be lower in five years’ time; and that in 2028-29 it will still not be back to where we were before the pandemic. That is the truth of what another five years of the Conservatives will bring.
The reality is that increasing numbers of people are leaving the labour market and not even looking for work. Whatever the Secretary of State says—he repeated it today—the OBR says that economic inactivity is increasing, not declining. It says that economic inactivity is proving more persistent than it previously thought. It is no longer declining from the post-pandemic high and has instead rebounded to a total of 9.3 million people—the highest in over a decade.
Much of the problem is driven by poor health, an issue raised by many hon. Members in this debate. On the Labour side of the House, we know that a healthy nation is critical to a healthy economy and that the Government are failing on both. Some 2.8 million people are now not in work because of long-term sickness—an all-time high. Many of them are over 50: often women struggling with bad hips, knees and other joints, often caring for elderly parents at the same time.
There has been an extremely worrying increase in young people out of work due to mental health problems, with many lacking basic qualifications. As the Centre for Cities has shown, all those problems are far worse in northern towns and cities, which the Conservatives promised to level up, but which have once again borne the brunt of their economic failure. In places such as Blackpool, Blackburn, Middlesbrough and Hull, if we include the hidden unemployed in the figures, it takes the official unemployment rate from 5% to 20%. The Labour party thinks that unacceptable.
The waste of individual potential is appalling, as hundreds of thousands of people who want to work are written off and denied help to get back on their feet. This is a waste for British businesses, which are desperate to recruit and need the talents of everyone in our country to grow and succeed. It is an appalling waste of taxpayers’ money, too. Over the next five years, 600,000 more people will be on sickness and disability benefit, which will cost an extra £33 billion—more than our day-to-day expenditure on defence.
The impact on our economy is profound. Yesterday, the OBR said that
“higher and rising levels of inactivity”
are offsetting increases in the size and growth of our population, and will leave GDP in five years’ time
“unchanged…and the level of GDP per person…lower.”
There it is in black and white: the Conservatives’ failure on work is a drag on the economy, a drag on growth, and a drag on living standards and money for our vital public services. That is not good enough.
Mel Stride
I thank the hon. Lady. She is rightly not happy with the level of economic inactivity; that is why we are bearing down on it. Given that the level of economic inactivity was higher during every year of the last Labour Government, would she like to comment on their record on it?
Liz Kendall
I will not take any lessons from a Government who are overseeing economic inactivity at record levels. The number of people out of work due to sickness is at a record level, resulting in soaring costs for individuals and livelihoods. If I were the Secretary of State, I would put in place a proper plan for reform, not offer half-baked programmes, rehashed and re-announced schemes, and more of the same empty rhetoric on benefits.
Mel Stride
If our plans are half-baked and rehashed, why has the OBR confirmed that by the end of the forecast period, 371,000 fewer people will be receiving the long-term sickness and incapacity benefits to which the hon. Lady refers? If our plans are half-baked, why will 371,000 fewer people be on those benefits?
Liz Kendall
The OBR says that there will be 600,000 more people on those benefits, and the total cost will be £33 billion. The Secretary of State tries to deny that the schemes are rehashed. Well, let us look at the reform to fit notes announced in 2023. Back in 2017, what did the Chancellor, then Health Secretary, announce? Reform to fit notes, taking them beyond GPs. The Government recently announced that there will be mandatory work placements. In 2011, what did they announce? A mandatory work activity programme. In 2017, the current Chancellor, as Health Secretary, said:
“We will appoint an Expert Working Group on occupational health.”
They are the same policies with the same failure. It is absolutely time for a change.
We do not have to go down this road; we can choose a different path. Under a Labour Government, we will do so. Our back to work plan will tackle the root causes of worklessness by driving down waits for NHS treatment, and we will recruit 8,500 more mental health staff. We will ensure that employment support is tailored to individual and local needs, by overhauling jobcentres to end the tick-box culture, and devolving employment support to local areas. In every part of the country, we will create more good jobs in clean energy and through our modern industrial strategy. We will make work pay and improve the quality of work, by ensuring a genuine living wage, banning exploitative zero-hours contracts, and strengthening rights to flexible working. And we will do more.
There are now 850,000 under-24s who are not in education, employment or training—one in eight of all our young people. That is a terrible waste for them and for our country as a whole. Given that half of all mental health problems start before people turn 14, we have to intervene earlier, so the first part of our offer to young people is about providing specialist mental health support in every school, and walk-in access in every community. That way, we will tackle one of the key drivers of worklessness before it takes hold. Secondly, we will deliver 1,000 new careers advisers, and good-quality work experience, so that young people leave school ready for work and ready for life.
Thirdly, we will overhaul skills by creating new technical excellence colleges and reforming the Tories’ failed apprenticeship levy, which has seen apprenticeship starts by young people fall by a third. Our new growth and skills levy will help young people to get the skills that they need, including by offering them a second chance at basic skills and pre-apprenticeship training if they did not get the right qualifications at school. Fourthly, we will provide new employment advisers for young people in our young futures hubs. They will offer joined-up specialist help and support, because the old, one-size-fits-all approach will not work when it comes to tackling this problem. Finally, we will overhaul access to work for young disabled people who want to work, so that they know what equipment, adaptations or personal support they will get before they start, giving them the confidence to take the plunge.
Our proposals are fully costed and funded, and will be paid for by scrapping tax breaks for private schools and closing the tax loopholes enjoyed by private equity fund managers. That is our offer to young people. This year, they and the rest of the British public face a choice: another five years of stagnation, low growth, high costs and worklessness under the Tories, or a long-term plan to get Britain building again, growing again and working again under Labour. The public know it is time for change. Let us have an election, and let us have the guts to have it now.
The Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Nigel Huddleston)
It is my pleasure to close the first full day of debate on this spring Budget, which my right hon. Friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer brought before the House yesterday. I thank everybody for their contributions today.
The past few years have been a sobering lesson in living through history. They have not been easy for the British economy or the British people, as we face the challenges and the legacy of covid, war in Ukraine and, now, war in the middle east. We all know that we are in an election year, but it is important that we focus on the policies as well as the politics, and on the facts, not just the spin, so let us have a look at some of the facts.
Inflation has fallen from 11% last year to 4% now. We knew that reduced inflation was the single most important thing for helping families, and it has happened. Real wages are now rising, and some mortgage rates are starting to come down. The economy has also performed better than forecast. It is projected to grow by 0.8% this year and by 1.9% next year, defying expectations that we would enter a long recession.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the UK will have the third-fastest cumulative growth in the G7 over the next five years, and will grow faster than Japan, Germany, France and Italy. We are on track to meet our fiscal rules, underlying debt is forecast to fall as a share of GDP in the fifth year of the forecast, and by the end of the forecast, borrowing will be at its lowest share of GDP since 2001.
Of course, it is only because we responsibly reduced the deficit by 80% between 2010 and 2019 that we were in a position to provide much-needed support, to the tune of £450 billion, during the pandemic and the recent cost of living challenges that followed the invasion of Ukraine. As has been repeated by many colleagues, we did not hear the Opposition complain about that support.
The support inevitably led to higher taxes, because public expenditure was higher. How on earth did the Opposition think all those interventions would be paid for? This reality has been forcefully emphasised today by my hon. Friends the Members for Folkestone and Hythe (Damian Collins), for The Cotswolds (Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown), for Devizes (Danny Kruger) and for Hastings and Rye (Sally-Ann Hart), all of whom made important contributions, but the job and the recovery are not yet done. Because of the progress we have made, though, the economy is turning a corner, and we have been able to afford tax cuts as part of our plan to reward work and grow the economy.
Karin Smyth
It is astonishing that on day two of the Budget, the Government still want to tell the country that it has never had it so good. Will the Minister address some of the points made by my hon. Friend the Member for Leicester West (Liz Kendall)? What does he say to those young people who cannot work because of disability or ill health? What does he say to women in their 50s who are not working? How does he propose to get those people back to work? We are the party of work, and we have heard a lot of myths today from Conservative Members. We believe in well-paid, good-quality work. The clue is in the name of our party. What will the Government do for those women, and for those young people with disabilities?
Nigel Huddleston
That is quite amazing. I opened my speech by saying, “Let’s focus on the facts.” Is Labour really claiming to be the party of employment? Every single Labour Government in history have left office with unemployment higher than they began with.
The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions outlined how we will help the very people whom the hon. Member for Bristol South (Karin Smyth) mentions. Far from saying that everything is fine and that people have never had it so good, we are being honest with the public by saying, “We know that you have been through an incredibly difficult time.” That is precisely why we intervened to such an extent, providing over £450 billion of support during the pandemic and since. It was out of necessity. That support was needed. It is important that we are honest with the British public that the money clearly needs to be paid back. We have higher taxes out of necessity, but as my hon. Friend the Member for Folkestone and Hythe said, we reduce taxes out of choice when we can. We increase them out of necessity, and we reduce them out of choice. The Opposition do not have that philosophy.
From April 2024, we are further reducing national insurance contributions, and employees across the UK will see their national insurance contribution rate cut from 10% to 8%. Alongside the cuts we already made to NICs at the autumn statement, this is a total annual tax cut of £900 for the average worker on £35,400 a year. Self-employed national insurance will be cut further too, to 6%; 2 million self-employed will also get a tax cut, worth, on average, £650 a year. Those measures will incentivise, encourage and support more people into work or to work longer hours. The OBR says that, when combined with the autumn reduction, our national insurance cuts will mean the equivalent of 200,000 more people in work, filling one in five vacancies and adding 0.4% to GDP, and 0.4% to GDP per head.
This latest cut to NICs is the latest step towards our long-term ambition to end the unfairness that means that if somebody gets their income for having a job, they pay two types of taxes—NICs and income tax—but if they get it from other sources, they pay only one. When it is responsible and when it can be achieved without compromising high-quality public services, we will continue to cut NICs, making work pay. I believe that my neighbour, my hon. Friend the Member for The Cotswolds, outlined the precise wording from the Chancellor yesterday on that.
Of course, this should be seen in the context of our overall record on jobs, which is impressive. Since 2010, more than 2.5 million more people are in work. That is equivalent to 800 jobs created every day of the Conservative- led Administrations.
Michael Shanks
Does the Minister agree, however, that many of those jobs are part of a low-wage economy? The OBR, which he cited, said that in the 13 years of the Conservative Government pay has gone up by just £17 a week, which contrasts with the 13 years of Labour when it went up by £183 a week. Does he agree that many of these jobs are low paid and precarious?
Nigel Huddleston
The hon. Gentleman was clearly not listening yesterday to the Chancellor, who had a key focus on jobs. That is precisely why we are lifting so many people out of poverty and why we have had a focus on increasing the national living wage over the years. Let us not forget that the tax-free allowance was about £6,500 under Labour, whereas it is more than £12,500 now. We have lifted so many people out of paying tax altogether, and that has been a key focus and strategy of this Government.
Jim McMahon
On low income tax payers, by the Government’s own assessment how many people have been brought into taxation because of the freeze on the personal tax allowance?
Nigel Huddleston
The hon. Gentleman is making an important point. I said earlier that, unfortunately, we have had taxes at a higher level than we want, but now we are in a position to reduce them. Reducing them and focusing on NICs is impactful for 29 million workers—anybody earning above £12,500. People now need to earn more than £1,000 a month before they pay any tax whatsoever.
As I said, when we came into power unemployment was near 8%, but it is now about 4%. We should not take full employment, or near full employment, for granted. We all know that every Labour Government have increased unemployment—that is not an impressive record but it is a consistent one.
I particularly want to reflect today on how our plan rewards hard-working families. The Government believe that people’s careers should support rather than undermine another important role: parenthood. That is why at last year’s Budget the Chancellor announced the biggest ever expansion of childcare from September 2025, extending the 30-hour free childcare offer to all children of working parents from nine months old. That will result in an extra 60,000 parents entering the workforce in the next four years. But to deliver on that we need to support the private sector to play its part too, so yesterday we confirmed that the Government are guaranteeing the hourly rate paid to childcare providers to deliver the free hours offer.
Stephen Kinnock
The Minister has not yet mentioned the Government’s damascene conversion on scrapping the loophole for non-doms, but there is a point here about what they could have generated. If they had listened to Labour and done that two years ago, it would have generated an extra £6 billion of revenue, which could have paid for free breakfast clubs for nearly 4.5 million children. So on the point of childcare, does he think that is relevant?
Nigel Huddleston
The hon. Gentleman gave quite a wish list earlier, which, by my calculations, could come out as being quite expensive. I do not know whether he has had conversations with the hon. Member for Leicester West, who is on his Front Bench.
On the hon. Gentleman’s point about non-doms, we will be scrapping the non-dom status, but we will be replacing the system with one that is residency based, including measures that will encourage and incentivise further investment into the UK, because we will be implementing transition measures. I did not hear the Opposition talk about them. Those transition measures are likely to encourage £15 billion of additional investment into the UK. Non-doms at the moment pay about £8.5 billion in taxes. We want to welcome people, but we recognise that those with the broadest shoulders must carry the greatest burden. None the less, we want to be internationally competitive, and the new system that we have proposed will be.
Returning to the childcare measures that I outlined earlier, this commitment would mean over £500 million of additional investment in childcare over the next two years. This will give childcare providers the confidence to invest in expanding at a crucial time, to deliver the free childcare expansion and help bridge the gap between parents’ career demands and their childcare needs.
This approach complements further changes that we are making to the tax system to incentivise parents to increase the hours they work. Yesterday, the Chancellor announced that from 6 April the high-income child benefit charge threshold will be raised to £60,000. In addition, the level at which child benefit is withdrawn completely will increase to £80,000. That was very much welcomed by many Members on the Conservative Benches, including my hon. Friends the Members for Devizes, for The Cotswolds and others. As a result, no one earning under £60,000 will now pay the charge. This will put pounds in parents’ pockets, saving nearly half a million families with children an average of £1,300 a year. According to the OBR, this change will also result in an increase in hours for those already working, which is equivalent to around 10,000 more people entering the workforce full time.
Peter Grant
I am grateful to the Minister for giving way. One of the remaining injustices with the high-income child benefit charge is that a single person earning £60,000 will have to pay the charge, but a couple earning £59,000 each will not, because it is assessed on a single earning. Do the Government have plans to amend that anomaly? If so, when can we expect to see that happen?
Nigel Huddleston
If the hon. Gentleman had not intervened and given me just one more second, I would have said that, going forward, we will also consult on moving the high-income child benefit charge to a household- based system, to be introduced by April 2026. That point was also raised by my hon. Friend the Member for Christchurch (Sir Christopher Chope), who pointed out the potential opportunities in other areas relating to household income. It is important, because our tax system is based on the principle of individual taxation, and there are many aspects of confidentiality and so on that are important in that as well. The Government will consult shortly on options to enable better targeting of economic support to households in times of crisis.
Danny Kruger
I, too, very much welcome that commitment to move towards a household basis for taxation. Does my hon. Friend recognise that most other countries, particularly European countries, operate on a household basis for taxation, because they recognise the obligations that families have to dependants.
Nigel Huddleston
Yes, I hear my hon. Friend but, as I have said, there are some challenges in moving to a household system. There will be a consultation and I am sure that he and others will participate in that, and we will have further discussion in the House.
Nigel Huddleston
I do need to make some progress and respond to comments, and my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State was extraordinarily generous in taking interventions earlier on.
Nigel Huddleston
I am afraid that I cannot take any more interventions, as I have to respond to other colleagues’ questions.
My hon. Friends the Members for Christchurch, for The Cotswolds and the right hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) and others talked a lot about the tax burden. It is important to point out that, taken together, this Budget package and the autumn statement will reduce the tax burden by 0.6% in 2028-29. The tax burden is forecast to be lower than expected in the autumn. The tax system is competitive, when compared with other European nations, such as Germany, France and Italy, which have much higher tax-to-GDP ratios.
The hon. Member for Glenrothes (Peter Grant) and others raised the point about green policies and green energy. Of course, the UK has halved its emissions since 1990, which is faster than any other G7 country. Since September alone, companies have announced plans for £30 billion of new energy investment, and the Budget delivers on the green industry support announcements in the autumn statement 2023, including an additional £120 million for the green industries growth accelerator and other measures.
My hon. Friend the Member for Redditch (Rachel Maclean), who is my constituency neighbour on the other side, not only proudly quoted Margaret Thatcher, which of course always goes down well among Conservative Members, but gave her considered insight into mental health and resilience. She also mentioned productivity, as did several other Members, which was a key theme of the Chancellor’s speech yesterday.
My hon. Friend the Member for Thurrock (Dame Jackie Doyle-Price) and others made important points about the role of local government and local government finance. On 24 January, the Government announced an additional £600 million for local authorities in England. Taking into account that additional funding, the final local government finance settlement for 2024-25 is a 7.5% increase in cash terms on 2023-24.
Several hon. Members mentioned the importance of house building, which of course is a priority for this Government and a central part of our plans for growth. We are on track to deliver 1 million new homes in this Parliament, and have already delivered more than 233,000 homes on average each year since 2019.
The hon. Member for Bristol South said that there is nothing in the Budget for the people of Bristol South. I respectfully suggest that the national insurance cuts that we announced in the Budget will impact thousands of her constituents. She may not appreciate or value that, but I assure her that her constituents will.
Karin Smyth
My point was about the changes that we do not yet really understand in the Budget, and their effect on women in particular. Will there be an equality impact assessment showing how these changes will affect women?
Nigel Huddleston
As the hon. Lady knows, there are always tax information and impact notes—impact assessments —as part of the budgetary process.
My hon. Friend the Member for Folkestone and Hythe, in his very strong contribution, reminded us of not only the context in which we took power in 2010, which was far from the golden legacy that the Opposition received in 1997 when they took power, but the challenges that we have faced in power over the last few years. He was also very enthusiastic, as I am, about the opportunities and progress of the creative industries. That is exactly why we have focused on them, and provided more support measures in the Budget, following on from several measures over the last few years. The creative industries are vital to our economy and future growth, growing on average at about double the normal pace of the economy.
I have to call out the comments of the hon. Member for Warwick and Leamington (Matt Western) regarding the West Midlands Mayor, Andy Street, who has done so much to grow and attract investment in the west midlands. I gently remind the hon. Gentleman that the Labour council is not without its problems in Birmingham.
Nigel Huddleston
I will happily follow up with the hon. Gentleman, but not now.
My hon. Friend the Member for The Cotswolds mentioned VAT RES, which I was absolutely expecting. He made some really important points in many areas. I will happily follow up with him regarding VAT RES. The Government are considering the OBR’s findings about VAT RES, in the context of the wider public finances, but the Chancellor has expressed that he is always happy to receive further representations.
The hon. Member for Halifax (Holly Lynch) mentioned several areas, including SEND, which other colleagues mentioned as well. We know that it is a really important part of the education system and our overall social provision. The Government are investing an initial £105 million over the next four years in building new special free schools, and 20 successful alternative provision free schools as well.
I am aware of the time, so I will conclude my comments. I genuinely thank all Members for their contributions. There have been some extremely interesting contributions today. The hon. Member for Leicester West (Liz Kendall) outlined her vision of a clear choice, which I think we might be hearing quite a lot over the coming months. I do believe that there is a clear choice this year: sustainable economic recovery, sound finances, lower taxes, more productive public services, support for businesses and households, optimism, confidence and opportunity for all with the Conservatives, or reckless spending, unfunded promises, higher taxes, pessimism and negativity from the Labour party, with no hope, no clue and no plan. We have a plan, it is working, and I encourage everyone to stick to the Conservatives, and not to risk a Labour Government.
Ordered, That the debate be now adjourned.— (Mr Mohindra.)
Debate to be resumed on Monday 11 March.