Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Friday 25th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is worth remembering that this debate we are having is probably going on in parliaments across the world, and in every single one of them there will be different views on the outcome and what is going to happen. In fact, there is no consensus at all on what the end is going to be. Frankly, although we talk about the end, there is no end in sight at the moment to the hideous, horrible, child and woman-killing, family-destroying, unprovoked and poisonous attack on Ukraine that we are watching. Nor will it be settled on the battlefield, as the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, rightly said in his excellent maiden speech.

Of course the battlefield is important and horrible, but it is a stalemate scene at present, and the breakage and undermining of the stalemate will come from quite different sources. Why is that so? Because the battle with Russia, the autocracies, its Chinese ally and some others is just as much being fought in what is happening in Iran and the Middle East, Turkey, Syria, Egypt and the whole of that region, because this is a war like no other ever fought in history. It has its old-fashioned bit —its Somme, its trenches and all that horror—but it also has an entirely new dimension. A leading figure from Ukraine technology was here in Parliament last week telling us that the system in Ukraine, which is military and civilian bound together, is seeking to organise and manage 1 million drones. Those drones are either in the air or in the supply chain, being directed or not directed in various places, including right over the border out of Ukraine into Russia itself. These are features that have never occurred in battles before.

There is a very good article in Foreign Affairs pointing out that the entire United States arms structure is not ready for this sort of war; it simply is not organised on that basis. Nor, of course, was Russia itself. I think how Putin must regret how he was advised by the generals—advice that he took—that, “It’s just going to be another question of tanks, just like Prague and Budapest: we’ve done it all before”, but of course it has turned out to be totally different, with the amazing combination leading to a drone war and an anti-drone war too, with new technologies on a scale that simply was not envisaged even two or three years ago.

Thirdly, there is no obvious limit on resources. We shall of course go on supplying Mr Zelensky—although he will complain that it is not fast enough for him—with the equipment necessary to stop the Russians advancing to maintain the stalemate. That could go on and on, but I am afraid that any idea that Russia can somehow be brought to an economic halt is for the birds. Here is just one figure: the estimate is that next year Russian oil and gas revenues will rise by 73%. In fact, the Russian economy is doing extremely well. Our planners forget, when we go in for sanctions, that wartime is a fantastic innovator for all economies. In the Second World War, that was what happened even in Germany when it was being bombed to bits, and certainly in this country when we were being bombed. The Russian economy is well-equipped, with its dark ships selling oil right across the world. We are trying to control them but failing to do so. With its enormous development of gas sales in Asia, it is supporting the entire energy drive of the Asian economies. All that provides ample resources.

Chinese exports to the world were $3.7 trillion last year, and to Russia alone they were $110 billion. That tells you on which side China’s bread is really buttered. The BRICS meeting was mentioned earlier. BRICS is to do with Governments and leaders standing on the central stage and making a great noise. By contrast, I remark that CHOGM, of Commonwealth countries, is a meeting of peoples, and on the whole peoples are going to win out in future against the sort of Governments that we are dealing with.

The clear need in our approach is to recognise that these are tyrannies that have huge momentum. They are moving across Africa, east and west Asia and the small islands of the world, and hoovering up the Commonwealth. Tyrannies are smashed by attacking their intellectual belief roots, and that is what we have to do. We have to show that our liberal capitalism is going to destroy and undermine the illiberal capitalisms that they are practising. We can do that if we are really determined, although we are not making much effort at the moment.

We have to show that, in Putin and Xi’s other war, which is in Africa—where, as I say, they are hoovering up Commonwealth countries and invading or seducing large parts of central Africa and indeed Latin America—is where the final decisions are going to be made. That is where we are going to see Ukraine’s endless war brought to a halt. If we operate in those areas—the intellectual, the broader areas of the developing world—then the chances of an end to Ukraine’s horror are there. Otherwise, I am afraid there will be no end at all to the horrors and the killing of young boys and girls for decades ahead.

Combat Air Capability

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

The review will, of course, look at the necessary profile with respect to air, land, sea and intelligence and technology sharing. The Government have made an absolute commitment to 2.5% and are determined to deliver on that as soon as they can.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I did not quite hear the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, on Japan, but does the Minister agree that the huge Tempest deal with Italy and Japan is very much at the centre of this whole issue and that it really is going forward in a positive way? This is a very crucial time, when our relations with Japan are much improved and with all sorts of plans ahead, and it would be fatal if this one had a wobble.

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I thank the noble Lord; that is a good question. We have made as firm a commitment as we can, although I have said that it is also part of the ongoing review that the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, is undertaking. We have made a commitment to Italy and Japan and the noble Lord will know that the GCAP International Government Organisation was set up to run that programme. Its headquarters are in the UK. On 2 October, just a week or so ago, the King ratified the final part of the SI to ensure that the treaty was put in place. That shows that the Government are making progress with respect to the GCAP programme.

Relations with Europe

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I join with others in welcoming the presence of the noble Baroness, Lady Hodge, and her wisdom and authority, which are well known and will greatly reinforce our counsels.

Following the noble Lord, Lord Ricketts, when I look across Europe on matters of stronger ties in culture, diplomacy and security, which I greatly welcome, I find I come not to solutions—because Europe is an organisation of constant bargaining; it never reaches settled places in any of these areas—but to the European Political Community, which has not had much mention in the debate so far. President Macron described the political community as a new space for co-operation on politics, security, energy, investment, migration and the evolving economic situation, with all its revolutionary qualities. My view is that we should do much more to be creative with the European Political Community, and I would like to know from the Minister how it is seen in government. Is this something that we will really work at, produce more plans for and build on? There was a very good atmosphere in the last two or three community meetings, and we should develop that. It has 45 attendees and is much bigger than the European Union, and it is addressing the modern issues of order and survival in an acutely dangerous world in a way that, one sometimes feels, Brussels has not quite grasped yet—but it needs to do so.

Then we come to the central issue: Germany. At the moment, Germany is closing down Schengen—that is what is happening. The free movement throughout Europe has been closed for the time being, and it will be interesting to see when it opens again. Not only that but the German economy has been really badly hit by China and the prospect of its whole motor industry being undermined—as well as ours. It is a deeply divided nation at the moment, in a way that it has not been, as a model of industrial power and strength, for the last 70 years or so.

Germany is ceasing to dominate the EU. That is the important point that I do not think all noble Lords and honourable Members have quite grasped, let alone the press. So, with that question of a new power source bringing together the interests of Europe, and it no longer being just the old Franco-German alliance running everything, this is a time for new ideas. We have a fund of new ideas in this country for developing and strengthening Europe in a totally changed international order, and I hope that we will pour that fund into working in the EPC and creating the conditions in which all these issues can be tackled and some of the obstacles we find day by day overcome.

It is a Europe of constant bargaining, as our wise experts point out, so I am afraid that those who are looking for the future of Europe to be settled are going to be disappointed. I say that to the noble Baroness who brilliantly opened the debate. There is not an immediate settlement. There is, however, the possibility of a great many new ideas, driven and shaped, particularly by technology, being poured into the assessment and creation of a changing Europe, and it is in the forum of the EPC that that can be usefully shaped and decided. I would like to hear a lot more from the Minister on that matter.

Strategic Defence Review

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 9th October 2024 Grand Committee

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is a first-class idea that we should have this opportunity for import from your Lordships, with all the enormous experience here, into the review before it happens, rather than waiting until it has happened and then moaning that they left out this or that bit that they should have put in. We may still moan at the end, because some of us moan all the time, but this is a very good way of approaching it and I congratulate the Government on doing it this way. I congratulate them on choosing the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, to chair it; he has assembled an extremely impressive team around him. This is a very good set of minds applying to a very difficult, disorganised and expanding concept of what on earth “defence” is and what we are trying to defend in a constantly changing world.

As the noble Lord said, it is the fifth strategic defence review this century if you include the 1998 review, which was modified in 2002. If you add in the integrated reviews we have had in recent years—there was one in 2021 and then the refresh review, and I have no doubt that another refresh review is being prepared now—we get the picture that there is a continuously changing platform. Technology is racing ahead at such an intense speed in the matter of defence and the conduct of war and battle, so we need to be almost constantly on the train. I have no doubt at all that, in a year or two, we will need to come back to this again—and then again—to keep up with the enormous technological advances taking place. We read about one almost every week. Last week it was explosives in pagers and exploding telephones; next week it will be something else in that region.

I take this as an opportunity for us all not so much to go over the obvious, central points—which the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, quite rightly touched on, with NATO as a bedrock—but to put in our own thoughts and hopes about particular issues that we would like to focus on and that might just be overlooked if we did not give them a little nudge. That is all I will do in my few minutes.

First, I will talk about China’s and Russia’s vast intrusion in the developing world, which is taking place almost behind the scenes while our eyes are on Ukraine, the Middle East, Afghanistan, Syria and the Pacific dangers around Taiwan. That is the front line but, behind it, the autocratic powers are moving very fast in a variety of ways—China mostly with bribes, insidious involvements, the belt and road initiative and so on; Russia in a more crude and violent way with the Wagner Group, which is still very active throughout Africa and Asia, although its leader came to a rather abrupt end after he was unwise enough to try to invade Moscow. That is what is happening before our eyes, and I hope that the review will concentrate on all that is going on there. As one expert put it, China is hoovering up the Commonwealth and the developing world, and we need to watch that, because we may find that it is too late if we do not act.

Then there are the neo-non-aligned countries—which, after all, are most countries—that are watching very carefully. I am glad to say that many are members of the Commonwealth, and I think they are all saying, “Look, we believe in independence. We are watching. We want support and advice from and a good relationship with the United Kingdom, but we don’t want to see Britain become too much a puppet of Washington. We don’t want to be under the hegemony of the Chinese either; we are trying to avoid being sucked into their nexus and network. But nor do we want to be necessarily lined up with a Manichaean view of the world, which comes particularly from the United States, that the world is just divided between good and evil, or the West and the East, and that that is the way it must be fought out”. Therefore, I hope that, in addition to the China and Russia scene, we use this review to get our own relationship straight with a changing United States. It is not 1945—it is not the heroic days of the Second World War or the Cold War. It is an entirely different situation. That is my first point.

Secondly, I hope we recognise that the fight is now on to kill civilians—to demoralise, undermine, frighten and terrorise civilians—and every kind of AI and other technology will be used by our opponents to do that. I saw that the director of MI5 said yesterday that we are now at the greatest level of threat in decades and that Russia and Iran, to take two, are determined to generate “sustained … mayhem” in this country. I hope that will be a matter of focus.

Thirdly, the whole industry and defence relationship has changed. A Ukraine expert was here yesterday and talked about battlefield co-ordination and management in Ukraine. That has been largely organised by private enterprise or by enterprises that are semi-private—some in uniform, some not. That expert pointed out that on the Ukraine side there is the question of managing 1 million drones, either in production—maybe in remote garages that no one knows about, or in unofficial factories—or being deployed and sent in various directions. No single military authority, no single Government, can co-ordinate all the movements of that sort of thing. His firm is called Aerorozvidka and he is deeply involved, as a civilian, in battlefield deployment and in new ways of industry co-ordinating with the military not only in supply chains—we know about all that—but in the organisation and deployment of strategy on the battlefield.

Finally, we have signed the NATO industrial capacity expansion pledge, which brings industry and technology even closer to the military. We are signing up to AUKUS, which is another opportunity, and to the Tempest programme with Japan and Italy. All these will involve huge new types of involvement between industry and the military, and that will require a considerable amount of time from the review team. Beyond its cellular internet of things, the Chinese Communist Party seem to have taken a dominant role there. We have Russia’s dark fleet sailing around the world undermining all the traditional areas of marine control. These are the frightening technologies of next month, probably, or certainly of the next year or two. These are the things that I hope will be concentrated on.

That is a start from me, but I am sure there will be many other better-informed, deeper and more important views to be uttered by your Lordships. That is my contribution.

King’s Speech

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 25th July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the world is indeed, if not actually on fire, in a very dangerous state, as we have been reminded. Here, we have been told recently by those in authority that we must prepare for war in a few years’ time. Preparing for war is of course a vastly expensive business; it involves not more wages, higher pensions and all the rest but hardship and cutting back to finance the dreadful demands and dreadful expense of war.

We are going to have our strategic review. I say straightaway that I am a strong fan of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, who I see is sitting here. I am also a fan of Fiona Hill. I just wonder, though, whether we are right to air in public all the problems and weaknesses, if we have them, in our defence structure against modern technology, which is changing by the hour. I am obviously a supporter, increasingly over the years, of parliamentary accountability, publicity and so on, yet the nature of war is full of surprises and secrets. Those secrets themselves are weapons, and if we go too far in discussing everything in public and debating it in our splendid Parliament, we tell our enemies a lot about how they should react. Let us go with caution into this review and realise that a basic message is all that is necessary: that if any nation stings us, we will sting back with 10 times the ferocity. That is the basic stance that we want to prevail.

Let me spend my last three minutes on outlining some themes that, in opposition, we can usefully and constructively help with in creating the kind of national unity and togetherness of society that the most reverend Primate has just spoken about. I make the following points.

First, does our capitalism really work for everybody? It is asserted that it does, but the vast majority of young people think that it does not. It is not a sufficient system, in its modern digital form, to deliver what billions of people throughout the planet really want. The younger generation is deeply disappointed and critical of it. We need much wider capital ownership—as well as strong incomes and wages, obviously—to give households and families the dignity and security that capital gives in a very dangerous age. People may say: what about levelling up? That is one of the aspects of levelling up that we should promote much more strongly, whatever party is in power. A wider capital-owning democracy has certainly been a theme in my party for 50 or 60 years. That is one theme that we on our side must work on to support the Labour Government and, I hope, carry them with us.

Secondly, we must take back control of our foreign policy. This is an age of looser alliances and of networks, which I do not think every policymaker, certainly in America, fully understands. In this country, we are crazy not to bring our own network—the biggest in the world, the Commonwealth network of 56 countries—far closer to the centre of our strategy and linkages. There may not always be a pattern of Governments agreeing with each other, but the point about the Commonwealth that makes it a 21st-century organisation is that it links at every level: from primary school and university to every profession, every level of training and every kind of friendship. We are very lucky to have that kind of linkage and should work much more on it.

Thirdly, we need to work with Japan, our great friend in Asia. If there is any question of revising some of these big defence contracts, I hope it will be done not by rumour and hint but in an open, friendly way.

Finally, our energy policy is a mess and remains far from achieving the objectives of the net zero that we want. We have vast expenditure ahead, and delusions that somehow renewables are carrying us along. They are not at all. We will have to multiply our renewables by at least four times, we have to multiply our nuclear by five or six times, and we need an entirely new national transmission grid, with a thousand miles of pylons. On carbon capture and storage, we have barely begun.

Where the Government are moving on all these issues, I hope we will help, and constructively. But where they are failing to move or simply do not understand what is happening, we will step in and put all our brainpower and effort into preparing for the day when what goes down comes up. Perhaps the Conservatives will step back into government again. Either way, both parties should work together.

Tempest Global Combat Air Programme

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 23rd July 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

I thank the noble and gallant Lord for his question and thank him in anticipation of the sorts of thoughtful comments that he will make and the help that he will give to me and others as we seek to defend our country in the best possible way. He makes a really important point on the GCAP. It is an important alliance between Japan, Italy and ourselves that gives us the opportunity to work with Japan and others—but in particular Japan—to develop that technological progress and partnership, which will be so important as we take this programme forward.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

I declare my interests as in the register. Would the Minister agree that, recently, Japanese industry and its economy and the British economy have been getting on extremely well, with increased co-operation—much better than way back before the Brexit interruption? Would he agree that the sources of our biggest productivity increases of the past 50 years were when we were getting massive Japanese investment in the 1970s and 1980s? In the light of both those thoughts, does he accept that we must be very careful in continuing this progress and doing nothing impetuous that undermines the close co-operation that the Japanese want to have with us and are seeking in many other areas as well?

[Lord Coaker (Lab)]

As I said in answer to the question from the noble and gallant Lord—and the noble Lord makes the point for himself—the relationship between ourselves and Japan is extremely important. The technological advantage that both the UK and Japan get from our close partnership is extremely important. As I said in answer to the original Question, progress continues on the GCAP with the other partner, Italy. A strategic defence review will look at all the various programmes, but progress continues.