Baroness Goldie
To ask His Majesty’s Government what assessment they have made of the United Kingdom’s future combat air capability.
The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)
My Lords, our assessment of the future combat air capability we require is informed by consideration of the future threat environment and strategic context. Consequently, the Global Combat Air Programme has been designed to utilise advanced capabilities, including next-generation sensors, weapons and data systems. Networked interoperability with allies and partners will be key. In the meantime, we continue to invest in our current fleet, which remains highly capable.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble Lord for that part-reassurance. The previous Government’s commitment to the Global Combat Air Programme—GCAP—was clear and we were doing it in partnership with Italy and Japan. However, with the best of intentions, the current Government’s position is opaque. Can the noble Lord at least reassure the House that the Government understand the need to plan now for a successor to Typhoon and the extent to which UK industry is supporting thousands of jobs across the UK—not least, for example, at Leonardo in Edinburgh—that depend on this programme proceeding?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
We certainly do understand that: 3,500 people are already employed in the development of this, £2 billion has already been invested in the research and development of the programme and further money will be invested, as we go forward. As the Prime Minister said a few weeks ago, the Global Combat Air Programme is “important” and
“we are making significant progress … There is … a review going on but … it is an important programme”.
I think that gives the reassurance that the noble Baroness is looking for.
Lord Stirrup (CB)
My Lords, as I highlighted in Grand Committee yesterday, on current plans, by 2040 the UK will be down to just three combat air squadrons. Irrespective of the debate over the type and nature of future platforms, would the Minister agree that this position is wholly untenable for any Government who care about the security of this country?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The noble and gallant Lord makes a good point. He is really referring to investment in our defence capabilities as we go forward. The review will look at the threats that we need to meet, but this Government have made an absolute commitment to go to 2.5% of GDP as soon as we can. I think that gives some reassurance to the noble and gallant Lord.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, we have two aircraft carriers, which will last for some 50 years. Will the Minister confirm that, in this package of air capability—which we absolutely need and do not have enough of—some aircraft will have the capability of operating from those carriers?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
I certainly believe that the noble Lord is right to point out that, if we have aircraft carriers, we need aircraft to operate from them. I accept that. As far as the defence review is concerned, there is no doubt that we will look at the future capabilities we need, in respect of how those carriers are deployed and where they should be deployed, but also in respect of the necessary air combat power we need to meet the threats that the noble Lord will know well—as indeed will the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup.
Baroness Smith of Newnham (LD)
My Lords, it is indeed reassuring that His Majesty’s Government appear to be recommitting to GCAP but, like AUKUS, this agreement has been inherited from the previous Conservative Government. The allies, in this case, are Italy and Japan. Can the Minister tell us whether there is any scope for bringing in other partners and whether that would that help with resilience and interoperability with our NATO allies, for example?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
As it stands, we are certainly sharing the costs with Italy and Japan, as the noble Baroness points out. Regarding other partners, we are considering that and discussions are taking place, without any firm commitment as it stands. Interoperability is key. She will know that Germany, France and Spain are also developing a sixth-generation fighter—SCAF—as is the United States. They are all part of NATO, so interoperability becomes essential.
Lord Dannatt (CB)
My Lords, while we accept that future generations of fast jet aircraft should be able to fly off aircraft carriers and fixed land bases, will the noble Lord accept that we also have land forces that need major investment? Will he also consider that going to just 2.5% of GDP is wholly inadequate and that the conversation should be about 3% or 3.5%?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The review will, of course, look at the necessary profile with respect to air, land, sea and intelligence and technology sharing. The Government have made an absolute commitment to 2.5% and are determined to deliver on that as soon as they can.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, I did not quite hear the question from the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, on Japan, but does the Minister agree that the huge Tempest deal with Italy and Japan is very much at the centre of this whole issue and that it really is going forward in a positive way? This is a very crucial time, when our relations with Japan are much improved and with all sorts of plans ahead, and it would be fatal if this one had a wobble.
Lord Coaker (Lab)
I thank the noble Lord; that is a good question. We have made as firm a commitment as we can, although I have said that it is also part of the ongoing review that the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, is undertaking. We have made a commitment to Italy and Japan and the noble Lord will know that the GCAP International Government Organisation was set up to run that programme. Its headquarters are in the UK. On 2 October, just a week or so ago, the King ratified the final part of the SI to ensure that the treaty was put in place. That shows that the Government are making progress with respect to the GCAP programme.
Lord Craig of Radley (CB)
My Lords, is the Minister satisfied that there are sufficient war stocks for our front-line aircraft at the present time?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The noble and gallant Lord will know that we have concerns about the supply of ammunition and missiles. That is why this Government are introducing a national armaments director and working with industry. We want to ensure that the stockpiles of weapons we have are replenishable quickly, and we will look to see whether we have the necessary quantity as well. That will also form part of the review led by the noble Lord, Lord Robertson.
Lord Berkeley (Lab)
My Lords, reports from Ukraine indicate the importance of drones. What are the Government doing to increase the capability of drones and to add them to the needs of the future, so that we can have many more of these smaller ones as well as the big ones that we often talk about?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The noble Lord makes a really interesting point. That is the whole point of lessons learned from the conflict in respect of Ukraine, and that is part of what the review will look at. One thing that the noble Lord may pray in favour is the fact that the drones that Ukraine has used have, to an extent, neutralised the impact of the Black Sea fleet, and the Russian fleet has been driven back into port. That shows the utility of the use of drones. Of course, we need sixth-generation fighters and global combat air, but drones will form an important part of the weaponry that we need going forward to meet future threats.
Baroness Foster of Aghadrumsee (Non-Afl)
My Lords, I am sure that the Minister will agree with me that we have an aerospace and defence industry in the United Kingdom to be proud of. Will he ensure that, when he is looking at air capability, he will bear in mind the totality of the United Kingdom, including of course Northern Ireland’s excellent aerospace industry?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The noble Baroness will know that I know Northern Ireland reasonably well and I have seen the fantastic skills base that Northern Ireland has. At the moment, as it stands, the particular emphasis in respect of the Global Combat Air Programme is that the main centres are in the south-west of England, Lancashire and Edinburgh. Of course, the spin-off from that is numerous small industries. We need to ensure that the growth agenda of this Government reaches all parts of the United Kingdom, including Northern Ireland, as the noble Baroness pointed out.
Lord Fox (LD)
My Lords, manned aircraft require a supply of pilots. Is the Minister satisfied that sufficient resources are being made available to train the pilots of the future and that they are getting sufficient, real airtime in order to be effective?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The noble Lord knows that there have been problems with the training of pilots. That is partly the point of his question. The Government are looking at training and also at the recruitment and retention of all these particular skills, not just in respect of pilots but right across the Armed Forces. That is why this Government have launched a recruitment and retention review to see what we should do about it. Pilots will form an important part of that.
Lord Lucas (Con)
My Lords, given the drone capability we see daily in Ukraine, could not that be used to puncture people smugglers’ boats before they ever leave French shores?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
Well, I do not know about that, but the use of drones will of course become increasingly important. With respect to the noble Lord’s suggestion, I am sure that people have heard it and will consider it in due course.
Lord Teverson (LD)
My Lords, is the Minister confident that we can keep one Vanguard submarine at sea at all times, given the strain there is on crew and our loss of crew because of the increasingly long time each mission has to take because of maintenance of the rest of the fleet?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
This is a very important question and there should be no confusion here. The noble Lord is talking about the UK’s nuclear deterrent. That forms an important part of our deterrent. We are absolutely 100% certain that we will retain a constant at-sea nuclear deterrent presence. That needs to be heard from this Chamber and across the globe. There is no way that we will in any way allow our nuclear deterrent to be compromised. That needs to be heard loud and clear.