Armed Forces: Land War Readiness

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 20th May 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I entirely agree with the right reverend Prelate.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords—

[Lord West of Spithead (Lab)]

My Lords—

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

I apologise to the admiral; I am sure his time will come. Does my noble friend the Minister agree that the Government website details on our reserve situation are curiously uninformative? They do not make a clear distinction between the regular reserves and the Army reserves, which are two separate concepts and have been for the past 10 years. They do not make clear how many of our units are high-readiness or how many are combat ready. Will he encourage his colleagues to provide clearer information online about the state of the reserves, and give us more information on how we are developing a new relationship between our reserves and regular troops of a kind that is being rapidly developed by several of our NATO allies?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, I will certainly take a look at the website and ensure that it is made a lot clearer on what the differences are. As regards valuing the reservists, I can assure the House that the Ministry of Defence values them extremely highly and will continue to make certain that the level of readiness is appropriate.

Ukraine and Georgia

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 16th May 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Russians clearly now have their eye on Kharkiv. The priority—that is, munitions—must be unwavering, despite the enormous amount we have already done and announced. There must be more air power, as the noble Lord opposite has already observed. Can the Minister look beyond the deep troubles of the past that have brought us to where we are to the causes in the future which will perpetuate this situation for decades unless we are very careful? Are there other means to which we are giving thought, and developing back-channels on the future of Russia? We cannot cancel Russia—no one sensible would suggest that—but can we begin to establish that we do not want instability for years ahead? There must be a deal or agreement on how far NATO goes, the borders of the expanded NATO of today and the desires of Russia to have a different system in future. These are the areas where thinking is required. If we do not think now, we and our children will still be in this mess, or an even worse one, in 20, 30 or 50 years’ time.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The most immediate and pressing issue for NATO and the rest of the West is to repel Russia from Ukraine. The noble Lord is absolutely right that there is a future post success, but, as the Secretary-General of NATO said the other day, it is very important that we take this stand now and assure all malign influences that NATO will stand firm against any aggression towards its pact. That is the primary purpose.

Military National Service

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 7th March 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

On those words, professional, regular and reserve, my understanding is that for some years now we have been vigorously building up our whole reserve—what used to be called the territorials—including a number of combat units trained to semi-professional standards and readiness. Is that process increasing? Is it reinforcing the number of troops we really have available? Are we following some of the patterns that the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, and the noble Lord, Lord Fowler, hinted at?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, we are. The current mix that we have in the Army is about 70,000 ground troops and about 30,000 reserves. The 100,000 target is where we are focused at the moment. The full size of the forces, currently at about 131,000, is an issue. The outflow is also an issue, as everybody is aware, and we are taking action to improve retention.

Royal Navy: Drone Attacks in the Red Sea

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 5th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, the First Sea Lord and his team are fully aware of the situation and are keeping as many ships at sea as we can at any one time. There is obviously a maintenance programme that must be adhered to and upgrading programmes that follow the latest technology. All the learnings from this latest situation in the Red Sea are being built in as rapidly as possible to all future plans.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, bombing the launch sites in Yemen makes sense, particularly if they are using Iranian weapons and rockets, if they are advised by the Iranians, and if some Iranians themselves are even involved in the launch. That is getting near the right target. Will the Minister and his colleagues bear in mind that southern Yemen is not so dominated by the Houthis? There are very many people there, for example, who are very favourable to this country and have been for years. Therefore, we should take great care that the bombing aimed at the launch sites does not descend on people who are favourable to Britain and puzzled as to why they should be bombed at all.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for his question. The accuracy of the bombing is very precise, very limited and specifically targeted at weapons that are being, or are about to be, prepared to be used. As far as we know, that has been successful, and there has been very limited collateral damage. We completely agree that there is a large part of Yemen which is favourable towards us. In fact, we provide quite a lot of aid—although not as much as we did, as noble Lords have raised before—to support the Government of Yemen.

Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament: China Report

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 23rd October 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

As the noble Lord will be aware, our relationships with key partners provide us with platforms across a number of areas in the Indo-Pacific. We have a permanent presence in Brunei, and the British Defence Singapore Support Unit. He is correct that the United Kingdom and the United States share a defence facility in the British Indian Ocean Territory. That plays a vital role in our efforts to keep the region secure. We are very clear about its strategic significance and continue to have due regard to the significance of that location.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, the Question mentions the two integrated reviews. The first, in 2021, was a very good and helpful document but unfortunately came out before the Russian assault on Ukraine. The second, refreshing the first, was also excellent but unfortunately came out before the present Israel-Hamas horror and the complete change to the map of the Middle East. Can the Minister encourage the Cabinet Office not to be deterred from having a go at a third one, maybe in the early spring of next year, because these documents are genuinely valuable in showing our purpose and direction in a very fast-changing world?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for his recognition of the strategic significance of these documents and the enduring messages which both contain and which continue to suggest a pungent relevance to events in the world today. The issues to which he refers are deeply troubling and complex. As to whether the Government would contemplate a further integrated review, I cannot say, but I acknowledge his concern at the extent of global tumult that we are witnessing today.

Wagner Group

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 11th July 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that although all eyes are understandably on Ukraine and Moscow regarding the Wagner Group, the noble Lord, Lord West, is right to raise the activities of the Russian militias and the Chinese right across the Sahel and throughout the whole of Africa? Will she therefore ensure that her colleagues and policymakers are really focused on this other war, as eyes tend to drift away to Ukrainian affairs, and make sure that we make every effort to reinforce security against the authoritarian regimes, which in many areas are winning? This is of particular note since 21 of the African countries being invaded by the Chinese are Commonwealth members.

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My noble friend makes a very important point. He will be aware that through the United Nations and our other relationships and partnerships, whether multilaterally or bilaterally, we are very cognisant of that threat. He is correct that Wagner is a pernicious and unwelcome presence in Africa, and absolutely right that there are other influences at play.

Defence Policy (International Relations and Defence Committee Report)

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Friday 30th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is an honour and a pleasure to be at the end of the Back-Bench contributions to this very important debate and to have listened to the extremely powerful speeches and the undercurrent of worry and discontent that has run through almost all of them. This report from the International Relations and Defence Committee has given us the chance to examine both the two integrated review papers from the Government on foreign policy and the last defence Command Paper. As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, said, we are waiting for the next one, although the report was published before the second, so-called “refreshed”, integrated review.

I give all credit to the committee, which the noble Lord, Lord Hannay, and I were proud to help instigate and set up seven years ago. It has proved its worth. I also give all credit to my noble friend Lady Anelay, my successor as chair, for her highly successful chairmanship and for securing and opening this debate, which she did with great appeal and effect.

The two integrated review papers of 2021 and 2023 have been curiously undiscussed. This debate has made it pretty clear why that is so: we have not had the chance or an opportunity, and in a way they have almost fallen outside and behind the rapid pace of events. “Integration” was the right concept in both papers, not least since today’s adversaries are weaponising nearly every aspect of daily life, far outside the military zone and far into areas which have never before been touched by warfare, defence or external security. The papers were right to avoid calling it a plan or strategy, because we all remember General von Moltke’s classic remark that no strategy or plan ever survives first contact with the enemy, so flexibility and uncertainty are understandable.

However, I share some of the committee’s scepticism and disappointment when it spoke in its report of a lack of focus in these integrated reviews and said that there was a lack of priorities, in both the 2021 and 2023 versions. In fact, I would go further in three respects. First, both reviews continue to underestimate the evolving power of new international networks. Yes, of course they mention ASEAN, the five-power defence pact Five Eyes and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which have been mentioned in the debate. We also have the AUKUS plans with the Australians and Americans to build submarines that are nuclear-powered, but not equipped with nuclear weapons. We are also engaged in an enormous project with Japan for the next combat air programme, and a lot of other things go in with that which to me are extremely welcome.

All that is so, but there are huge changes in the Middle East. The role of China there is growing all the time, and for instance there is Israel’s move closer to the Saudis and the new Saudi-Iranian rapport, which may or may not come to something. None of that comes into the integrated reviews at all, as the present chairman of the committee, my noble friend Lord Ashton, pointed out in his reply to the Government’s comment and as my noble friend Lady Anelay mentioned in her opening speech. Nor does the African Union seeking to join the G20, which is an enormous change in world affairs, feature at all.

There was no more than a passing reference to the biggest network of all: the modern Commonwealth, which could well prove our gateway to Asia’s and Africa’s vast new markets, where all the growth is going to be. It could be one of our greatest assets in the changed world, as a bulwark against the Chinese expansionism and maritime intrusions which have been referred to. None of that gets mentioned in these documents at all. Indeed, some of us have suggested that the 56-nation network which is the Commonwealth, with several more countries interested in joining it, could become a sort of safe haven from a divided world as the great powers slug out their 20th-century quarrels and ideological conflicts, which are less and less relevant to the problems that these nations face. That is my first concern.

Secondly, both documents shy away from our changing relationship with a changing USA. We remain, of course, the closest partners and friends but they are not our bosses; they are our partners and we work with them. We are in no way the puppets of Washington, nor should we be. That relationship needs much more careful updating than merely repeating the hopes of the previous century, and that updating is long overdue. Why is this crucial? Because the majority of independent nations, many in the Commonwealth, which have been called by many commentators the neo-non-aligned—quite different from the Bandung non-aligned of the previous century—are watching to see where we, the British, stand. They want neither Chinese hegemony nor American puppetdom. Of course, they are quite ready to take what they can from both, and rightly so, to preserve their independence in this new age.

Thirdly, eyes are understandably on Ukraine and the hideous but conventional war there, which some experts said would never happen—but it has—and on NATO and its need for solidarity and expansion. But eyes should also be, and are not enough, on what might be called the autocracies’ other wars, as China, followed to a more violent extent by Russia, is quietly hoovering up the developing world and large parts of the Sahel and central Africa, including numerous smaller Commonwealth islands in the south seas and the Caribbean, and African coastal states, while we sit watching, seemingly unaware of what is happening, to judge by the reviews. We should be thinking about how to put the autocracies on the defensive; yet instead, they appear to be turning the Commonwealth network, the chain of what should be bastions of liberty and freedom, the other way around, using them as their advance points of intrusion into the rest of the world.

The late Boutros Boutros-Ghali, the much underestimated former UN Secretary-General, once said, and repeated to me, that “Everyone must have a country to love and believe in”. Well, we love our country and believe in its future, in utterly transformed conditions, with much more rapid change to come immediately ahead. Nothing like enough of that comes through in either of the government documents looked at in this excellent report. We need to do much more thinking and to be less confined in silos, and a much deeper effect needs to be achieved. Like others, I look forward to hearing what our Front-Bench sages have to say on that.

Ukraine: Ministry of Defence Strategy

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 15th June 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I commend the noble Lord on his change of position; many people will identify and sympathise with his stance. If I may seek to reassure him, it has been the UK Government’s very clear position in relation to trying to bring this war to an end that only by going into peace negotiations from a position of military, economic and diplomatic strength will Ukraine secure a strong, just and lasting sustainable peace. Sadly, we are not there yet. I seek to reassure him that within the MoD, through various channels, ambitious and very effective attempts have been made to disseminate information within Russia, with evidence that this information is being increasingly received and taken up. He makes the important point that a powerful and cogent persuader in relation to President Putin will come from within Russia, when his country realises that this is a disastrous enterprise that it has embarked upon.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, in any review of strategy will my noble friend and the whole Government bear in mind very carefully the role of China in this situation? China is of course a country that supports Russia, and we all know that Putin very badly needs its support, but the Chinese are absolutely determined to oppose his possible use of nuclear weapons, which he keeps threatening. Is this not a key factor in calling Putin’s bluff, and should it not encourage us to press on and give Ukraine every weapon it needs, including aircraft cover, to gain the upper hand as soon as possible?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I express complete agreement with the last point made by my noble friend. Yes, I agree with his proposition. We welcome China’s engagement with President Zelensky. We expect China, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, to stand up for the United Nations charter and for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We hope China will use its influence with President Putin to persuade Russia to cease its attacks, withdraw its troops and hopefully bring an end to the war.

Ukraine

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 2nd May 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

Obviously we remain engaged with Ukraine on its immediate needs and how best we, in conjunction with partners, can respond to them. I am not at liberty to disclose operational matters, for reasons widely understood. We constantly monitor the situation, and we will continue to do whatever we can to support Ukraine as it tries to repel this illegal invader.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Will my noble friend use her influence to see whether, in future Ukraine Statements, we could learn a little more about the state of internal morale inside Russia in the face of the appalling slaughter, which is almost reminiscent of the First World War? The level of morale in Russia itself, and the pressures on the Government, may be the decisive factor in ensuring that this hideous horror comes to an end. Does she see any comparison with the Russian mood when Russian troops had to retreat from failure in Afghanistan, which of course helped to bring about the collapse of the whole Soviet Union in those days?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

Many people will be in sympathy with the important point made by my noble friend. We do everything that we can through intelligence outlets to try to ascertain what is happening in Russia—what the mood is and what the sentiment is. It is difficult to elicit any specific information, apart from a general observation that there is now evidence that morale is being impacted by this illegal war in Ukraine. Increasingly within Russia, as a consequence of that war, the brutal effect upon families who have lost loved ones or seen loved ones seriously injured is beginning to tell its own story. My noble friend makes an important point. I wish that I had some more specific instrument available to me to ascertain in detail what he asks. We continue to monitor the situation as best we can.

UK Undersea Infrastructure: Hostile Activity

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 25th April 2023 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I in no way disagree with the noble Lord’s final conclusion. It is recognised across government, which is why a number of government departments have a role to play in protecting that critical national infrastructure. We certainly regard these installations as essential to our national infrastructure and monitor a variety of risks that they face. The noble Lord will understand that these subsea cables are predominantly owned and operated privately, but key departments work closely with their owners. Supporting that is the national risk register, the National Protective Security Authority and the National Cyber Security Centre. There is a comprehensive framework to support the private owners and operators of these cables, but the MoD has and discharges a critical role in monitoring threat.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, if, as is reported in the newspapers today, the plan is now to turn the whole north Atlantic into one gigantic system of wind farms on an international basis, the effect would be to turn the whole seabed of the north Atlantic into a cat’s cradle of vital undersea electric power lines. Are we prepared, in moving forward to this fossil-free electric world that we are heading for, to safeguard those lines, since they could, if interfered with, put at risk not merely 25% of our electricity supply but our entire electricity supply when the wind is blowing?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I think we all agree that the overall objective of increasing our usage of renewable energy is laudable and to be commended, but my noble friend is correct that the installation of infrastructure brings with it an obvious degree of risk. As I indicated to the noble Lord, Lord West, across government there are a range of departments with responsibilities in this field. As far as the MoD is concerned, we actively monitor threat. When it comes to looking at, for example, Russian activity in either the Baltic Sea or the North Sea, noble Lords will understand that we regularly assess by our maritime presence what is happening. The Russians know that we know they know what we are doing.