The Economy

Kwasi Kwarteng Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Ed Balls]

No, no, no.

Three months before the general election, the polls said that the Conservatives would get a majority. As the polls narrowed, our long-term interest rates fell, entirely disproving the point that the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) makes.

[Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne) (Con)]

The right hon. Gentleman spoke about responsibility earlier, but does he take responsibility for the appalling fiscal position we were in when we had the largest debt in peacetime?

[Ed Balls]

It is fine for the hon. Gentleman to be thinking of his intervention rather than listening to the answers, but the fact is that we had a lower budget deficit and lower national debt than we inherited in 1997. The IFS, in its report, “The public finances: 1997 to 2010” said:

“By 2007–08, the public finances were in a stronger position than they had been when Labour came to power in 1997.”

That entirely disproves his point.

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[Catherine McKinnell (Newcastle upon Tyne North) (Lab)]

One year on, it is now abundantly clear that last year’s emergency Budget hit women much harder than men. Some 72% of the cuts are being borne by women, whether they are cuts in the health in pregnancy grant, in tax credits, in Sure Start maternity grants or in child benefit. What is more shocking is that it did not even occur to the Chancellor at the time to consider the impact that his savage cuts would have on women and that he failed to carry out his legal duty of undertaking an equality impact assessment before his policy decisions were taken. Indeed, such was the blatant unfairness and scale of the impact on women of the Chancellor’s first Budget that the Fawcett society stated that it showed

“a whole new level of disregard for the importance of equality law and everyday women’s lives.”

The Chancellor’s first Budget also showed a whole new level of disregard for children and families, flying in the face of the Prime Minister's promise to be the “most family-friendly Government”. One year on, I am particularly concerned about the impact on child poverty—an issue that directly links to the impact of the cuts on women. Although good progress was made by the previous Government, the number of children living in poverty remains unacceptably high. Figures recently published by the End Child Poverty campaign suggest that almost one third of all children in Newcastle are living in poverty. The coalition’s policies of cutting funding to Sure Start centres, removing the health in pregnancy grant, cutting tax credits, increasing VAT, cutting housing benefit and dramatically reducing local government funding will have a serious impact on household incomes, which I fear will lead to more children growing up in poverty. My fears are backed up by the OECD, which recently reported:

“Progress in child poverty reduction in the UK has stalled, and is now predicted to increase, and so social protection spending on families...needs to be protected.”

Of course, the cuts imposed by the Chancellor’s first Budget are also hitting home at a time that is already particularly difficult for women.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Will the hon. Lady give way?

[Catherine McKinnell]

I will give way just this once, as I know that many of my colleagues want to speak.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Can the hon. Lady tell the House what kind of savings the Labour party would have made in public spending?

[Catherine McKinnell]

This is not the opportunity for me to set out what the shadow Chancellor has already set out—the way in which we would tackle the deficit. I do not want to take up precious time that my colleagues want to spend giving speeches in this very important debate.

Women are particularly affected in the north-east, where about 46% of all working women are employed in the public sector. Those women face being one of the 30,000 public sector workers anticipated to lose their jobs in the region; most of those job losses will affect low-paid female workers. They also face pay freezes and the ever-increasing costs of balancing work with family life.

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[Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne) (Con)]

I was not expecting to be called so early in this debate, Mr Deputy Speaker, but I am very grateful.

It is easy in this environment and this highly partisan—[Interruption.] I know exactly what I am going to say, so please hear me out. It is easy to lose sight of the big picture in terms of where we were when we came into government in 2010, and it is easy for Labour Members to forget the huge deficit and the terrible mess they made of the country’s finances.

[Mr Bailey]

The hon. Gentleman talks about the big picture, but will he acknowledge that when the Labour Government came to power in 1997, the national debt as a proportion of GDP was 6% higher than when we left it?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I will acknowledge that the budget in 1997 was balanced, in that we took in £315 billion of revenue and spent £315 billion. I also have to acknowledge—I have to be candid—that under the first Labour Administration, between 1997 and 2001, the budget remained in balance. That was the prudent Chancellor whom many in the House will remember. We did not get into fiscal trouble with an increasing deficit until the 2001 to 2005 Parliament, in which, as people will remember, we had sustained growth. However, just at the moment when we were growing sustainably, the naughty, imprudent Chancellor took over. Having been prudent in the first four years of the Labour Government, between 2001 and 2005 he turned on the taps, to speak metaphorically.

[Mr Bailey]

I am following the hon. Gentleman’s argument, but it is somewhat incoherent given that, in 2008 I think, the current Chancellor, then in opposition, said that he would match the Labour Government’s public spending plans.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

The principal point—if the hon. Gentleman will listen—is that Labour gambled with the country’s economy. It sincerely believed that it had abolished boom and bust, so it made spending commitments on the basis that the economy would grow indefinitely year after year. Unfortunately those spending commitments could not be rescinded when reality dawned—when the economy faltered and the revenues collapsed, leaving us with huge spending commitments and creating this unprecedented peacetime deficit.

It is unfair and wrong for Labour Members to say that it was a global phenomenon. Our deficit was not comparable to Germany’s. As far as I know, Germany operates in the same global space and is a competitor in many of the same markets as us, yet its deficit-to-GDP ratio was 3%. Ours, I believe, was 12.8%—the highest in the OECD and the G20. These facts are known to everybody, including all economists and many journalists—everyone knows them—yet consistently, ever since I have been a Member of Parliament, Labour Members have completely denied any responsibility and have given every reason under the sun for the appalling fiscal position we were left in. It is vital that every single Member bears in mind those big facts. Labour’s stewardship of the public finances was catastrophically negligent.

[Mr Bailey]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

This is the third time that the hon. Gentleman has tried to intervene, and I am afraid that I must press on. I am willing to take interventions from other colleagues, but he has had his say and I would like to have mine.

We have had a difficult time over the last year, during which time my right hon. Friend the Member for Tatton (Mr Osborne) has been Chancellor of the Exchequer. No one will dispute that: the situation has been tough. However, it would have been far worse if we had followed the policies of the right hon. Member for Morley and Outwood (Ed Balls) and not tackled the deficit in the rather aggressive but timely way in which we decided to. Hon. Members referred earlier to Greece, which has indeed been a Greek tragedy. People are on the streets, the Government are practically insolvent and there is a real risk of some kind of political revolution—I am choosing my words carefully, but the situation is very unstable. The situation facing this country was, I confess, not as bad. However, if we had not been serious about tackling the deficit, there was every likelihood that the international markets would have forced our interest rates up, that our cost of borrowing would have increased and that markets would not have bought gilts in the way that, over the past year, they have. The consequent rise in interest rates would have affected every family in this country, who would have had to pay high interest rates simply because the Government did not have the courage or the conviction to deal with the deficit.

[Toby Perkins]

As for the comparison with Greece, does the hon. Gentleman recognise that if we had followed the advice of the Chancellor when the recession struck back in 2008, although events here might not have followed what happened in Greece, they would quite probably have followed what happened in Ireland, which saw huge public spending cuts? Ireland went into a cycle of more and more cuts, and more and more people being put out of work. The result of those cuts was not that Ireland’s deficit shrank, but that public services and poverty got worse.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I accept the hon. Gentleman’s point about Ireland, but let us look at what happened last year and the situation that we faced going into the general election in May. The shadow Chancellor quite rightly observed that the market price of gilts was rising and that interest rates on them were coming down in the period before the election. It is true that in the six weeks before the election, interest rates on gilts came down, but that was only because the market realised that there would be an end to the Labour Government. The market anticipated the result of the general election, after it became clear that, as a consequence of Labour’s total irresponsibility, the end of a Labour Government would mean a new Government who were serious about dealing with our financial position. It is true—I remember this—that the rates came down from mid-March, but that was only as a consequence of people in the markets literally rejoicing because Labour was going to leave. The shadow Chancellor was quite right to make that point; I just felt that we needed a bit more context.

[Owen Smith]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

The hon. Gentleman has had his say, but I will give way to him.

[Owen Smith]

I cannot help but point out that if the markets had been so omniscient and all-seeing, surely they would have spotted that the Tory party was not going to win the election.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

The only question that the markets were interested in at that point was whether Labour would be re-elected. When it became obvious that Labour would not secure a majority in the House, they started buying lots of British Government debt, and the interest rates in the six weeks before the general election came down quite rapidly. Those are the facts, and one could find them out from the Financial Times, Bloomberg or any other information provider in financial services.

[Nigel Adams (Selby and Ainsty) (Con)]

Since the last election, when we got a Conservative-led coalition, unemployment has fallen in my hon. Friend’s constituency of Spelthorne by almost 5%. Does he think that we would have achieved such a fall if we had followed the Opposition’s policies?

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I can give my hon. Friend a very short answer: there is no way that any businessman in Spelthorne—[Interruption.] Well, the short answer is no, but the longer, slightly more involved answer is that there are lots of small businesses in my constituency, and a lot of them are related to Heathrow, and the international market and trade. As a consequence of Labour’s complete failure over the previous 13 years, no Labour councillors were returned to our borough council. In fact, Labour contested only one of the 13 wards in the borough, which is only 35 minutes on the train from Waterloo. That is indicative of Labour’s utter failure to make any headway.

Let me tell the House why Labour was completely wiped out. The people in Spelthorne realise that Labour does not understand anything about the economy. Time and again when I have knocked on doors in Ashford, Sunbury and Shepperton—and even in Stanwell, which was traditionally a Labour area—I have met people who realise what this Government have to do. They say to me, “You’ve been put into power to clear up the mess that the other lot created.” I shall not repeat the unparliamentary language, but they tell me to “something well get on with it.”

[Stephen Twigg (Liverpool, West Derby) (Lab/Co-op)]

I am delighted to follow the hon. Member for Spelthorne (Kwasi Kwarteng). Reflecting on the lack of Labour representation in Spelthorne, I am reminded of the similar lack of Conservative representation in Liverpool. I am prepared to bet the hon. Gentleman that Spelthorne will get a Labour councillor before Liverpool gets a Conservative one.

We have seen some extraordinary complacency on the other side of the House today, given the economic circumstances that people are facing in communities up and down the country. Sometimes we forget the human cost of the decisions that are made in this House.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

The hon. Gentleman talks about the human cost of economic mismanagement. Could he tell us more about the human cost of Labour mismanagement over the past 10 years?

[Stephen Twigg]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for that intervention, but it is the only one that I will take. I want to give other colleagues on both sides a chance to speak. We have heard a lot about Labour’s legacy, and about where Labour stands, and we get severely misrepresented by the Government parties opposite. We are not denying the deficit. We adopted a plan to halve it over the four years of a Parliament. We have been very clear that we would have made cuts in public spending, that we support some of the cuts that are now being made, and that certain tax increases would have happened under a Labour Government.

The real challenge in this debate is to address the questions of growth and employment. There is no value in cutting public spending as the Government are doing if it damages the prospects for growth. The impact on the economy is that tax revenues go down, unemployment goes up, benefit costs therefore rise and the deficit position gets even worse. My right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor reminded the House earlier about what both the parties that are now in government said when they were in opposition. My hon. Friend the Member for Dudley North (Ian Austin) has pointed out that the then Leader of the Opposition, now the Prime Minister, said in July 2008 that

“we are sticking to Labour’s spending totals.”

That was the view on the Conservative Front Bench in July 2008. In fact, my hon. Friend did not quote him in full; the right hon. Gentleman went on to describe those Labour spending totals as “tight”. The views that the current Prime Minister and Chancellor of the Exchequer are now expressing are not the ones that they held at that time.

A year ago, in the emergency Budget, the Chancellor of the Exchequer said:

“In this Budget, everyone will be asked to contribute…everyone will share in the rewards when we succeed. When we say that we are all in this together, we mean it.”—[Official Report, 22 June 2010; Vol. 512, c. 167.]

Our motion today welcomes the recent fall in unemployment, and I have heard hon. Members on the Government Benches talk about falls in unemployment in their constituencies, but are we really all in it together? Let us look at the figures.

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[Ben Gummer (Ipswich) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow the right hon. Member for Oldham West and Royton (Mr Meacher). He spoke after my maiden speech, and he is a man whom I respect greatly for his integrity, honesty and the consistency with which he has held his views over the years. However, he has also been consistent in his economic views, and over 30 years he has been consistently wrong—in his judgment of Mrs Thatcher’s economy, John Major’s economy and Tony Blair’s economy. The fact that his views now come into the same alliance as that of the shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer tells us all that we need to know about where the Opposition’s economic policy has gone.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

Will my hon. Friend remind the House about the consequences of the 1981 Budget and what happened at the subsequent general election?

[Ben Gummer]

I do not know what position my hon. Friend took against the 1981 Budget, but all that I can say is that that Budget, which was opposed by Labour Members, started the rebuilding of the British economy, much as we are doing now.

I was not planning to speak today, but I entered the Members’ Lobby and looked at the Opposition’s motion on the Order Paper, which is entitled, “The economy one year since the Government’s first Budget”. I thought, “That’s brave of them, to pick a fight on this, but I’ll give them a chance.” I read on and thought, “This will be amusing.” The motions says:

“That this House notes that on 22 June 2010”—

there is a preamble, and we agree with that bit, because there was an excellent Budget this time last year—and it continues:

“further notes that over the last six months”.

I thought, “Hang on a minute. I thought we were talking about after a year,” but they have chosen six months for the economic growth figures. Why six months? It is because over a year the economy has grown, has it not? Already, in the terms of their own motion, the Opposition are failing, because they have to pick a six-month figure. Do hon. Members know why they pick that period?

My hon. Friend the Member for Witham (Priti Patel) talked earlier about businesses. Her parents run a business in my constituency. She understands businesses. She understands that, with a difficult start-up, some weeks are not as good as others and that things are rocky and choppy. Not many Opposition Members have ever seen a balance sheet or a profit-and-loss account in their lives, and that is why they might not understand what she explained earlier. That is why, after a year, the economy is growing—but after six months, it was flat, because we are having a choppy recovery, as the Chancellor said.

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[Toby Perkins]

It is interesting that the hon. Gentleman assumes what I am going to say already. I am only three seconds into my speech. I will come to that point.

The hon. Member for Elmet and Rothwell said that he was proud of the Government’s record so far. I would not like to be here when he is ashamed. Government Members would like this debate to be about whether we need to reduce the deficit, but that is not what it is about at all. Everyone recognises that we need to do that, and that in 2008, prior to the onset of the biggest global economic crisis in history, we had a lower deficit as a ratio of GDP than in 1997 when we came into power. It was only the scale of the economic crisis that forced the Labour Government to spend money to stop the awful situation that ordinary people were finding themselves in, with jobs being lost and the danger of houses being repossessed. We are proud of the decisions that we made at the time, which were supported by the IMF. It said strongly that this country, under the Labour Government, showed leadership when the rest of the world did not know what to do in the face of a terrible global economic crisis.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

rose—

[Toby Perkins]

Because the hon. Gentleman was so generous to me, I will allow him to intervene.

[Kwasi Kwarteng]

I believe in debate—it is good that interventions are taken. If the problem was global, why was our deficit to GDP ratio four times higher than that of the Federal Republic of Germany?