Office for Budget Responsibility Forecasts

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Monday 1st December 2025 Commons Chamber

[James Murray]

I thank my hon. Friend for drawing a comparison between the way in which we as a Government interact with the OBR and the way in which the Liz Truss Government interacted with the OBR. We value the independence of the OBR and the constructive relationship that we have had with it over the past 16 months. That is in stark contrast with the previous Government, who sidelined the OBR and caused economic chaos for families across the country.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

The Government will not apologise for this sorry and tangled affair, but will they at least learn a couple of lessons, such as the fact that there have always been very good reasons for observing total secrecy until Budget day and, secondly, when not in a financial black hole, do not start digging oneself into one?

[James Murray]

As the Budget documents and as the EFO makes clear, the downgrade in productivity was real. That was a £16 billion hit to economic forecasts, and it was a challenge that we inherited as a result of what the right hon. Member’s Government did when they were in power. We took the right and necessary decisions to fix the public finances, making sure that we could do so without going down the route of uncontrolled borrowing—like his Government did—or the route of slashing public investment.

Budget: Press Briefings

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Monday 17th November 2025 Commons Chamber

[James Murray]

As I made clear earlier, the level of noise and speculation ahead of the Budget is regrettable, but I will not engage in further speculation on these measures today.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

I am disappointed that the Minister does not know of the example of the Chancellor who resigned from Attlee’s Government for inadvertently or otherwise leaking details of the Budget. Does he at least appreciate that there is a difference between speculating about the contents of a Budget and leaking a Budget, and does he think that there should be any punishment for people who leak a Budget, irrespective of whatever the details were?

[James Murray]

I repeat what I said about the approach of Ministers—every Minister in the Government takes their responsibility to the House seriously—and I will not engage in further speculation about the contents of the Budget.

Taxes

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Wednesday 12th November 2025 Commons Chamber

[James Murray]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

As somebody who has been around a long time and remembers when Chancellors used to have to resign for leaking things about the Budget in advance, may I ask the Minister to explain how it has been possible for the present Chancellor to make speeches about what may or may not be in her Budget in advance with no consequences forthcoming whatsoever?

[James Murray]

I am very happy to remind the right hon. Gentleman and all Members that what the Chancellor set out in her speech last Tuesday were the values and principles that will guide her in taking the right decisions going into the Budget at the end of the month. The importance of protecting the NHS, bringing down the cost of living and getting debt down—those will be the guiding principles for the Chancellor going into the Budget. That is important, because it sets out to the British people the challenges we face—some of them deep scars in the economy caused by the Conservatives—as well as the values that will guide us and the Chancellor in taking those decisions on 26 November.

The official Opposition is entirely entitled to ask questions and indeed put forward what it would do differently, but the problem with this Opposition is that when it does so, it simply exposes its total lack of any credibility. Remember last year, when we took the difficult decision, referred to earlier, to raise employer national insurance to support the NHS? The Opposition claimed to oppose that tax change but have refused to say whether they would reverse it—or, indeed, whether they would cut the NHS. As the shadow Chancellor pointed out earlier, more recently, at the Conservative party conference, they said that they thought they could find some £47 billion of cuts to public spending.

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[Jerome Mayhew]

rose—

[Sir Julian Lewis]

rose—

[Charlie Maynard]

If hon. or right hon. Members would like to intervene, will they please do so?

[Sir Julian Lewis]

May I try to find some common ground with the hon. Gentleman? As has been pointed out, his party was in coalition with the Conservatives for five years. Can we at least agree that Nick Clegg’s decision to vote for trebling tuition fees, thus breaking a manifesto commitment, was a disaster for his party’s ratings? Can we also agree that if the Government do the same in respect of what they have pledged to do, it will be a disaster for their ratings as well?

[Charlie Maynard]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for that. We want to back—[Interruption.] It was unquestionably a disaster for our ratings—I will happily give the right hon. Gentleman that—and I do not want the Government to break their promises. That is absolutely right and correct.

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[Joe Robertson (Isle of Wight East) (Con)]

Too many of my constituents know 26 November 2025 already. Usually, Budgets come and go without making a huge impact on the public consciousness of people living their daily lives, but this year is different. It is different because businesses and families are terrified about what the Chancellor is cooking up for them.

What the Chancellor and the Prime Minister could have done a couple of weeks ago—indeed, a couple of months ago—is to put their fears at rest, confirm the Labour manifesto and confirm the promise not to increase tax on income, national insurance or VAT. The Prime Minister was prepared to do so in the summer; he did not revert to this absolute nonsense that he is not going to write the Budget. No one is asking him to write the Budget, and no one is asking the Minister to write the Budget from the Dispatch Box today. What we are asking for is confirmation of a manifesto promise that he and others got elected on less than 18 months ago. The Prime Minister committed to that promise in July, but failed to do so two weeks ago. Either he and his Government are indifferent to the worries of my constituents and the British people, or they are cooking up plans to tear up their manifesto and increase taxes they said they would not. I suspect that it can only be the latter.

[Sir Julian Lewis]

There is, of course, a third possibility, which some people with twisted minds have been suggesting: that the Government plan to do some pretty terrible things in the Budget but are setting up a strawman that they are going to break their manifesto promises. Then, when they do not do so, everybody will swallow those other terrible things. Is that too Machiavellian?

[Joe Robertson]

My right hon. Friend, whose constituency is just across the water from mine, is far more experienced in this place than I am. I admit to a certain naivety in not imagining that Machiavellian intention within the Government to set up such a strawman, but the point remains the same. If they are doing so, they are indifferent to the economic worries of my constituents and others, particularly hard-working families and businesses.

The question that we as the Opposition have raised today is what the Chancellor is going to do with the situation that she has created. Having sat through this debate, it is surprising to have heard so much deflection from Government Members—so much determination, in November 2025, to talk about previous Budgets under previous Governments. It is an obvious deflection technique, but in so doing, they speak against their own Chancellor. In November last year, she was very proud of herself in saying that her previous Budget had dealt with the black hole—a mystery black hole that she had identified, but let us take her at her word—and she wanted credit for having closed it off and wiped the slate clean. Her actual words to Sky News were “It’s now on us”, meaning that from that date, any problems in the economy and in future Budgets would be hers to deal with, and would have been caused by her decisions.

Last year, the Chancellor blamed the Conservatives for a £22 billion black hole. On a political level, one can understand that—why would she not? She had just come into government; she felt she could get away with it. This year’s black hole is bigger. It is £30 billion, and it is on her. That is why she is faced with the choice of raising money from hard-working families. What she could do is seek savings from the ballooning disability welfare bill, which, according to the OBR’s figures, is set to reach £100 billion by the end of the decade. She tried to do that earlier this summer, but her Back Benchers were not having any of it, so she and the Prime Minister had to shelve those plans.

We learn today that not only have the Prime Minister and the Chancellor lost the confidence of many of their Back Benchers, they have also lost their grip on No. 10, with its staffers briefing out against the Health Secretary. Today, the Prime Minister has had to admit to this place that he did not authorise any of that. In so doing, he has demonstrated that he has lost control of No. 10, his own operation. He is now having to suck up to the Health Secretary, the man who wants his job, in order to try to hold his operation together. The Prime Minister and the Chancellor could try to make savings—the shadow Chancellor has very kindly identified £47 billion of savings for them.

Financial Services Reform

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Wednesday 16th July 2025 Commons Chamber

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

Whenever I listen to the excellent Times Radio and other commercial broadcasters, I am always favourably impressed by the fact that at the end of every positive advertisement for a financial product, three words are said: “capital at risk”. Can the Minister assure the House that in the review of risk warnings that will be undertaken, that fundamental red flag, at the end of people pushing us to invest our money in some grand and profitable enterprise, will not be left out?

[Emma Reynolds]

I can reassure the right hon. Gentleman that we are not suggesting getting rid of risk warnings. I think that is what he was asking me most directly. One of the investment platforms did some research into the wording of risk warnings, and he will probably know that there is quite a gender gap. If we look at the figures from the Financial Conduct Authority’s financial lives survey, we see that more men have the confidence to invest than women, for example. There are other demographic factors, too. We want to give people the option and the confidence to invest, but of course there will always be risk warnings. However, there is also a risk if someone holds all their savings in cash over the long term, due to inflation.

Regional Growth

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Wednesday 4th June 2025 Commons Chamber

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

I know that the Minister is drawing his parameters rather tightly today, but can he give us at least a hint of what impact the Treasury’s consideration anticipates for the defence investments in the regions resulting from the recent strategic defence review, given the closeness with which his Department was involved in the formulation of that review?

[Darren Jones]

I thank the right hon. Member for his question, which recognises the significant increase in investment in defence and security that this Labour Government are making. He has asked for a hint, but the only hint I can offer is that the answer will come next Wednesday at the spending review.

Spring Statement

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Wednesday 26th March 2025 Commons Chamber

[Rachel Reeves]

My hon. Friend represents the constituency that neighbours mine. He knows as I do that there are far too many people in both our constituencies in Leeds and Bradford who are written off. There are people who are not working who are quite capable of working if they are given support. People may be disabled, but it does not mean that they cannot work and contribute if they are given the proper support. That is what the Conservative party failed to do, and that is what our Government are determined to deliver. We will work with disabled groups and jobcentres, including the one in Pudsey, where I was last week, to make sure that we support people to fulfil their potential and do not just write them off like the Conservatives did.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

I welcome the Chancellor’s emphasis on defence expenditure and her support for the nuclear deterrent, but does she agree that, by his actions in Ukraine, Putin has restarted the cold war? Will she bear in mind that during the 1980s, up to the end of the cold war, we were regularly spending between 4.5% and 5% of GDP on defence? That is the sort of scale that is required.

[Rachel Reeves]

The right hon. Gentleman has long been an advocate of spending properly on defence. We have set out a fully funded and costed plan to get to 2.5% of GDP in the next two years and to 3% in the next Parliament. The world has changed. We can see that all around us. This Government will always put our national security and defence first, and as the situation evolves, of course so will we.

Financial Assistance to Ukraine Bill

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Committee of the whole House
Wednesday 18th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Darren Jones)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship today, Madam Chair.

We had a very constructive debate on Second Reading of the Bill. In particular, I wish to express my appreciation for the universal support that the House has shown for the provision of this vital funding. It is clearly a subject close to the hearts of many of us across the House. I look forward to further discussion on this important Bill today.

As the Committee is aware, the extraordinary revenue acceleration is an ambitious scheme designed to provide Ukraine with a total of $50 billion in additional support, to be repaid by the extraordinary profits generated on Russian sovereign assets held in the European Union. The United Kingdom’s contribution of £2.26 billion is joined by pledges from the United States, the European Union, Canada and Japan.

The Bill contains only two clauses. They are both straightforward. Clause 1 grants the Government the legal spending authority to fulfil the commitment we have made to provide Ukraine with the UK’s contribution to the extraordinary revenue acceleration. The clause empowers the Treasury or the Secretary of State to provide the Government of Ukraine with funds approved by Parliament as a result of the extraordinary revenue acceleration loans for Ukraine scheme, or

“any subsequent arrangements that are supplemental to or modify or replace those arrangements.”

Payments made under clause 1 will be those that are necessary to perform the UK’s commitment to the ERA scheme.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

In of course welcoming the Government’s measures, I note that the Minister referred to the extraordinary interest from the frozen Russian assets. Have the Government permanently set their mind against any possible actual seizure of the assets themselves, perhaps in agreement with other G7 members or EU members?

[Darren Jones]

I thank the right hon. Member for his contribution. As we debated on Second Reading, this is a commitment across G7 partners and with the European Union to take action on the proceeds of the assets that are held. For other complicated legal reasons, there is no intention to seize those assets at this time.

--- Later in debate ---

Members rightly pointed out the support that this country has given to the people of Ukraine, the Ukrainian armed forces and our allies in supporting them. It was timely going into the Christmas period, when we have many images of England on our Christmas cards and our TVs, to note the number of Ukrainian flags on houses, churches and community buildings across the United Kingdom. That is a gesture of solidarity between the British people and the Ukrainian people, and shows that we are keeping them in our hearts this Christmas time, and in our minds as we think about our resolve going into 2025 to do all that we can to help them through these atrocious situations on the border with Russia.

[Sir Julian Lewis]

Among some of the excellent contributions we heard in this debate was the remark by the hon. Member for Livingston (Gregor Poynton) that if Putin is not seen to fail in Ukraine, British troops will ultimately end up being involved in some sort of conflict directly. Will the Minister take that message back to his Treasury colleagues? Some of us feel that the arguments about whether 2.5% of GDP should be spent now or in a couple of years’ time rather miss the point, because if we get to the stage where British forces are engaged, we will be spending far more than that. As a Treasury Minister, he should realise that investment in defence in peacetime can deter a much more expensive conflict.

[Darren Jones]

The Government’s position, as the right hon. Gentleman will know, is that we will set out the trajectory to 2.5% of GDP on NATO qualifying spend in 2025, following the conclusion of the strategic defence review and the spending review. He will also know that we fund our armed forces not just to be prepared, but to be ready to contribute. But clearly, I cannot comment on hypothetical scenarios in 2025. He was right to allude to contributions in the debate that rightly highlighted the Ukrainian armed forces on the battlefield fighting not just for their own country but for the security of Europe and the United Kingdom. I think we are all clear-eyed about that and, therefore, our responsibility to help them. That is why the Bill is one part of the package of support that we are putting in place and will continue to put in place over 2025.

I think I have answered most of the points substantively, and so I conclude my remarks.

Question put and agreed to.

Clause 1 accordingly ordered to stand part of the Bill.

Clause 2 ordered to stand part of the Bill.

The Deputy Speaker resumed the Chair.

Bill reported, without amendment.

Bill, not amended in the Committee, considered.

Third Reading

Farming and Inheritance Tax

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Wednesday 4th December 2024 Commons Chamber

[James Murray]

We know that individual circumstances will vary. Any individual who is concerned about their specific tax liability should obviously consult an accountant or financial adviser. We would not know, from a thumbnail sketch, whether that person had any inherited nil rate bands, what their liabilities were, what decisions they had made about gifting, and so on. A huge number of factors will play into this, and it is right for individuals to seek specific advice. Things that are said in this Chamber may be creating undue anxiety, when people should be looking into the detail.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

The Minister seems to be trying to suggest that not much farmland will have to be sold off as a result of this policy. However, on 4 November, following an urgent question, when I asked his colleague the Minister for Food Security and Rural Affairs, the hon. Member for Cambridge (Daniel Zeichner), how food security would be preserved if farms had to be broken up and sold off possibly for development, he replied:

“Of course there are trade-offs. There are a range of pressures on our land, in respect of housing, food, energy and so many other things.

That seems to constitute an acceptance that we will lose farming land, and people will be building on it instead.

[James Murray]

That is not how I interpret the comment, but I make no apology for the fact that we want to support farmers, as well as making our energy transition and building homes for people across the country. We need to ensure that we are achieving all the goals that the people of this country elected us to achieve.

I want to say more about data, because several Members have raised the subject. As I have explained a few times now, the DEFRA data shows the asset value of farms in England, but it is not possible to accurately infer a future inheritance tax liability from data on farm asset values. Any inheritance tax liabilities that farming assets may face will be affected by who the owners are, the nature of the ownership, how many owners there are, any borrowing that they have, and how they plan their affairs.

Oral Answers to Questions

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Tuesday 3rd September 2024 Commons Chamber

[Tulip Siddiq]

I thank my hon. Friend for his question. Upon taking office, as he says, we discovered a £22 billion black hole in the public finances that had been left by the previous Government, and we have now uncovered a litany of unfunded Conservative spending commitments. We recently learned that the deficit is now £4.7 billion higher than the OBR forecast in March because of the previous Government’s economic recklessness. We will rectify this, and we will set out a clear spending plan, and an ambitious plan to get the country back into stable economic conditions, at the Budget.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

Given that the House of Commons Library estimates that the covid disaster cost the country between £315 billion and £415 billion, can the Minister explain how it is that even her own questionable figure of a £22 billion black hole is not a great deal higher?

[Tulip Siddiq]

I think I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his question, but may I point out gently to him that, had our economy grown at the average rate of other OECD economies over the last 13 years, it would have been £140 billion larger? I also point out that under the Conservatives the tax burden rose to its highest level for 70 years. I will take no lessons from the Conservative party, because the last Government oversaw the biggest drop in household real disposable incomes since records began.

Public Spending: Inheritance

Julian Lewis Excerpts

Monday 29th July 2024 Commons Chamber

[Madam Deputy Speaker (Caroline Nokes)]

I call Sir Julian Lewis.

[Sir Julian Lewis (New Forest East) (Con)]

Congratulations on your election, Madam Deputy Speaker.

I cannot hope to match the splendid double entendre of the hon. Member for Walthamstow (Ms Creasy), but I may I say to the Chancellor that one effect of being here for a long time is a realisation that no one party has a monopoly on wisdom? Given the impartial assessment by the Library that covid cost this country between £310 billion and £410 billion, is she willing to at least concede that the previous Government did a pretty good job in getting inflation down to 2% less than two years after the pandemic?

[Rachel Reeves]

The pandemic is no excuse for making unfunded spending commitments, which is precisely what the previous Government did. The right hon. Gentleman mentioned the pandemic, during which the Government handed out contracts to friends and donors to their party, putting them in a VIP lane. That is why we are appointing a covid corruption commissioner. We want that money back in our public services, where it belongs.