Defence in Scotland after 2014

Jim Shannon Excerpts

Tuesday 18th March 2014 Commons Chamber

[Thomas Docherty]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. That was not a day of celebration. There are genuine ties between the various yards. They share a common union body—the Confederation of Shipbuilding and Engineering Unions—and they campaign together to protect and sustain this crucial industry, which is in our national interest.

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

Harland and Wolff in Belfast does not have the capacity to produce ships, as it has diversified into the oilfield sector, but there is capability there. We very much want to be part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and I want to place on record that we pledge our yards to be used in the service of the Royal Navy.

[Thomas Docherty]

There is obviously no shortage of firms to carry out this work. I see that my hon. Friend the Member for Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks) is in the Chamber. He was gracious enough to take me along to see a company in his constituency, Vector Aerospace. He has been a real champion of that company. It is inconceivable to me that the British Army and the Royal Air Force would continue to send Chinook parts to Perthshire for repair, if Perthshire were to be in a foreign country, when they could have the work done elsewhere in the United Kingdom. I say again that it is disappointing that not one SNP Member is here tonight. Perhaps that is because they are fearties, but they should be here to make their case, and to explain to the people of Scotland what the implications of independence are for defence and the defence industries.

I have said quite a lot about manufacturing, so I shall turn now to the so-called Scottish defence force. Over the past 12 to 18 months we have seen the SNP changing its position and rewriting documents. It went from being outside NATO and completely opposed to it, to being a full member, without even having to apply. It then changed its policy again. When the Minister for Transport and Veterans, Keith Brown, appeared before the Defence Committee last July, he admitted that an independent Scotland would have to apply for NATO membership. That was then flatly contradicted by Alex Salmond, who continues to put around the lie that somehow Scotland would automatically be a member of NATO. It would be helpful if the Minister could tell us what he thinks about those contradictory positions. SNP Ministers say one thing when they are under oath in front of a Select Committee and then say something completely different when they are safely back in Scotland and they think that no one is paying attention to them.

There are some serious concerns about the ability of Scotland to defend itself given the SNP’s plans. It was quite clear from when the Defence Committee took evidence that, in order to maintain simple air defences, Scotland would need, according to Air Marshal Iain McNicol, the equivalent of two squadrons of Typhoon aircraft. The SNP now claims that it would inherit a number of aircraft from the Royal Air Force. That is based on the argument, with which I have a huge amount of sympathy, that that is what happened in Czechoslovakia when it broke up. A proportion of aircraft went to the Czech Republic and a proportion to the Slovak Republic. Even under the most generous of assumptions—the Ministry of Defence has done the figures and they were used by the Secretary of State last year—Scotland would have only eight Typhoon aircraft. It would have to spend more than £1 billion purchasing additional Typhoons.

The same is true with regard to the Royal Navy. Again, the SNP is making contradictory statements. It claims in its party policy that it wants a squadron of submarines, yet in its White Paper, there was no mention of submarines. Perhaps like many other SNP policies, that has sunk beneath the waves.

The SNP has also claimed that it would need 15,000 regular personnel. Although the Minister and I may disagree on aspects of the strategic defence and security review, I am sure that we agree on the correct way of approaching a defence policy. One needs to set out strategic aims and threats, what posture needs to be adopted and what personnel and equipment numbers are needed to effect that posture. Then one needs to put together the money. What the SNP has done is to pick a random figure of 15,000. At no point has it provided any coherent explanation as to what it is, nor has it explained from where the troops would be recruited. Where would these air men and women, sailors and soldiers come from? The SNP claims that it is entitled to those members of the armed forces who have some sort of Scottish qualification.

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[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

It is a pleasure to contribute to the debate and I thank the hon. Member for Dunfermline and West Fife (Thomas Docherty) for introducing it. He made his case very clearly. When I became aware of the debate, I sought the permission of the hon. Gentleman and of the Minister to contribute.

There can be few Members in the Chamber who do not know where I stand on independence. My designation says it all: I am a Democratic Unionist, with a greater emphasis on the Unionist as I am proud to be a member of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Together we are stronger and better as a nation. The four nations come together as one. I always think of that when I walk into Central Lobby and see the four flags: we are all together, four flags and four nations as one, in Central Lobby in the centre of the greatest democratic process in the world, here at Westminster. It gives me great pride to walk through the door and have the opportunity and privilege of seeing that.

I am very fond of my Scottish colleagues. They know that, and I agree with them on many issues. I am disappointed that they are not in the Chamber tonight. I wish they were, as I would be keen to hear their views.

My ideal applies also to the Scottish question and the reason is clear: the Union is in all our best interests, including that of the Scots. Many issues have been flagged up that emphasise the difficulties with independence, and the one that is of great concern to me is defence, and in this debate we are considering defence in Scotland after 2014. Although I support the devolution of most matters and believe that the regional Assemblies should have power, I have always held that decisions on matters of national security should be taken at the national level. That is why they are taken in Westminster.

The second world war showed the difficulties of a nation sharing a land border with a nation that is not on its side. We in Northern Ireland know that better than any others. The actions of the Republic of Ireland in its neutral stance to Germany were not helpful to those suffering the Belfast blitz bombings. The strength of mainland Great Britain lies in the fact that it is an island, united in core principles and values, and defence is a major part of that.

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Motion made, and Question proposed, That this House do now adjourn.—(Mr Gyimah.)

[Jim Shannon]

The first time I was interrupted in that way I thought that my chance to speak was over, but now I know the process and I am pleased to be able to continue my contribution.

I do not always agree with Government reports or policies. I agree with many things, but not with everything, as right hon. and hon. Members will be aware. But I read with great interest the report “Scotland analysis: Defence”. It states:

“In the event of a vote in favour of leaving the UK, in the eyes of the world and in law, Scotland would become an entirely new state. If Scotland were to become independent, therefore, it would leave the UK and its existing arrangements, and would need to establish its own defence arrangements as part of forming a new state.”

That is a frightening aspect, not simply for the rest of the United Kingdom but for Scotland itself.

As I said earlier, I am fond of the Scottish nationalists. I have affection for them and we agree on many things. We disagree intensely on their position on independence. I am always reminded of the film “Braveheart” in which that well-known Scotsman Mel Gibson plays the lead role. Let us be honest: if it were as bad as it was then, with the English stealing their land, burning down their houses and abusing their ladies, I would be the first to jump to their support. But it is not. We are in a different situation. We are in a democratic process, and we as nations together in the United Kingdom are better for being united.

With that mind, I will read a further section of the report. Hon. Members will forgive me if they are fully aware of the information, but it is important to repeat it so that the people of Scotland can be fully aware of all the real issues and not get caught up in the dream that independence will mean that they can pick and choose how involved they will be in defence, in the currency or in any other matter. There seems to be that perception. The hon. Gentleman made it clear. The Scottish nationalists are not here to put forward their case and we wonder why. Is it because they are not sure what their case is? Is it because they do not want to deal with the head over heart issues, of which this is one?

The report states:

“Scotland is home to major bases for critical UK military capabilities and other essential facilities, including for military training and testing. As at 1 July 2013, there were 11,100 Regular Armed Forces (7.5% of the UK total) and 4,000 MOD civilian personnel (7.6% of the UK total), from across the UK and beyond, at around 50 MOD sites throughout Scotland, as well as an estimated 2,200 trained Volunteer Reserves (10.3% of the UK total). There are also an estimated 11,500 Cadets (85% of the UK total).”

I am honoured to speak in this House on behalf of the Northern Ireland cadets. It continues:

“Although defence reforms mean that the overall number of Regular Armed forces personnel across the UK is decreasing, by 2020 the number in Scotland is set to increase to 12,500 (8.8% of the UK total).” —

a rise of 1.3%.

“And as part of the UK Government’s plans to increase the size of the Reserve Forces, by 2018 there will be an estimated 4,250 trained volunteer Reserves in Scotland (about 12% of the UK total).”

[Lady Hermon (North Down) (Ind)]

I am most grateful to my colleague from the neighbouring constituency of Strangford for taking an intervention. The hon. Gentleman will know that a number of companies from Northern Ireland provide essential maintenance for the MOD in Scotland. Has he had an opportunity to speak to any of the senior management of those companies to ascertain their views about the proposed ridiculous decision to become independent in Scotland?

[Jim Shannon]

I have not had that opportunity personally, but I have through third parties. I know that my friend and colleague, the hon. Member for North Down (Lady Hermon), has businesses in her constituency that have clearly told her and their staff that Scottish independence would have a detrimental impact on them, and some of my constituents work for those companies as well.

The report continues:

“On current UK Government plans, by 2020 Scotland will be home to one of three Royal Navy main bases, including all its submarines, one of the British Army’s seven Adaptable Force Brigades and one of three Royal Air Force fast jet main operating bases.”

That is the role Scotland can play in defending the whole of the United Kingdom— Northern Ireland, Wales, England and Scotland: all of us.

[Mr McKenzie]

I know that the hon. Gentleman spoke in the recent debate on cyber-security. We know about the many hard, physical aspects of defence, but cyber-security is a growing area of concern that is consuming more and more time, resources and money. He spoke at great length and with great knowledge about the subject, so I wonder whether he would care to devote a part of his speech to it today and underline the cost implications and the implications for a country that would not have the same level of defence in its interactions in the cyber world.

[Jim Shannon]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for his intervention. Cyber-security is clearly an important area. Many Members contributed to that debate, and I am no more knowledgeable on the matter that anyone else, but I understand its importance and the potential costs. There is a bigger picture, and I feel that the Scottish National party has unfortunately not taken it into consideration in its quest for the referendum. It must do so very honestly and very quickly.

The defence issue for Scotland is massive. To me, it fully underlines the need for the Union. However, personnel issues must be considered. On a more personal level, the Army base at Ballykinler, just outside my constituency, is due to lose some of its regiment, with the knock-on effect that 300 jobs in the area are at stake. However, the Ministry of Defence has assured me that the base will remain open. That follows lobbying by Members of Parliament and the local council. If that was to be replicated across Scotland, how many jobs would be lost? If Northern Ireland was to become independent—thank the Lord it will not, so long as the people of Northern Ireland have the decision to stay in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland—those jobs would be lost.

My parliamentary aide has a friend who is based in Scotland in the Scots Guards, along with her husband. She has already said that, should Scotland become independent, she will transfer to England, because she feels that there would not be the capacity for job security and that the uncertainly for her and her husband would be too great. That is what my constituents are telling me. That will be replicated many times if Scotland becomes independent. There is the potential that it will lose many good men and women who are seasoned officers. How much will that weaken its defences?

In conclusion, we are very fortunate to have the contribution that our Scots brothers and sisters make in all the services—the Air Force, the Royal Navy and the British Army. We are very pleased to have them as comrades in arms. What is very clear, however, is this: we are better together, safer together and stronger together, and together we must remain.

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[Dr Murrison]

I have given up speculating about the SNP, but I agree with the hon. Gentleman that it is somewhat odd, even in the simple 19 pages on defence in this remarkable 649-page document, that Rosyth should feature so poorly. That is truly remarkable and I think the hon. Gentleman’s constituents are entitled to draw their own conclusions from that.

I believe that Scotland should continue to benefit from every pound spent on UK defence. We of course have one of the largest budgets in the world at £33.5 billion this year. The £2.5 billion grudgingly conceded by Mr Salmond for both defence and security simply pales in comparison.

As part of the UK, Scotland will continue, as it has done for 300 years, to play an integral part in all aspects of UK defence. As UK citizens, Scots will continue to be employed in world-class armed forces, and Scotland will continue to be home to critical high-end military capabilities across the defence piece. In fact, on our current plans, the defence presence in Scotland will increase over the coming years. As the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) has pointed out, by 2020 Scotland will be home to one of the Royal Navy’s main bases, including all of its submarines—I will come back to submarines in a moment—as well as to one of the British Army’s seven adaptable force brigades and one of three Royal Air Force fast-jet main operating bases.

At a time when the overall number of our regular armed forces personnel is necessarily decreasing, the number based in Scotland is set to increase from about 11,000 now to 12,500 by 2020, which is about 8.8% of the UK total.

UK defence generates economic benefits for communities throughout Scotland though jobs, contracts and support services. Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde is the biggest employment site in Scotland, with about 6,700 military and civilian jobs, increasing to 8,200 by 2022.

The hon. Member for Dunfermline and West Fife has eloquently described the importance of defence to the east coast, and every constituency in Scotland has people whose livelihoods depend on defence and that are subsequently at risk.

Scotland, as part of the UK, will continue to benefit from a strong, established global network of international relationships and alliances that would be unavailable to an independent Scotland, at best for years and possibly indefinitely.

[Jim Shannon]

I thank the Minister for his strong and robust response to the debate. During her intervention on me earlier, the hon. Member for North Down (Lady Hermon) outlined the importance of defence contracts to many businesses in Northern Ireland as well. The ripples caused by independence would affect not just Scotland, but Northern Ireland.

[Dr Murrison]

I agree entirely with the hon. Gentleman, who has anticipated my next point, which is that the UK has geopolitical influence that few states of a similar size can match. That influence would be put at risk in a dramatic way were this country to be split in two. Together, undoubtedly we punch well above our weight. Apart, we would certainly be diminished, with substantial geopolitical consequences that would reach far beyond these shores. It is interesting that many of our partners are watching this situation very closely indeed—even more closely, I have to say, than many of our own citizens on these islands—because they fully understand what is at stake in September.

Because we are together, the UK is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, a leading member of the European Union and a founder member of NATO. It is central to the “Five Eyes” community. The benefits for Scotland’s defence industry as part of the UK are especially important to the hon. Member for Dunfermline and West Fife, as he has pointed out.

The scale of our defence spending is a key factor in sustaining those indigenous defence industries. The Ministry of Defence spent more than £20 billion with UK industry in 2011-12. Over the 10 years from 2012-13, it will spend almost £160 billion on new equipment and data systems. That spending sustains a substantial industrial footprint in Scotland, from complex warships to the latest high-tech innovations in aerospace engineering, defence electronics and electro-optical systems in companies based throughout the country, employing thousands of people in high-skill and relatively high-salary positions. Many of our prime contractors—Babcock, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Selex ES, Thales, Raytheon and QinetiQ—have sites in Scotland. The defence sector in Scotland employs about 12,600 people, with 4,000 jobs in Scottish shipyards being directly linked to the aircraft carrier programme alone.

The SNP may be able to marshal arguments in support of independence, beyond its cynical offer of free child care, but even its ex-parliamentary candidate Colonel Stuart Crawford asked rhetorically whether the Scottish Government White Paper would provide at least some answers. In the event, we were left little the wiser from its 649 pages.

John Swinney’s secret admission that his defence budget would be less than the £2.5 billion asserted by the SNP is interesting, but let us generously assume that that is the figure. That would be for both defence and security, presumably including intelligence and cyber, but it is only about 7% of the UK’s combined budgets for defence, intelligence and cyber, and it is significantly less than Scotland’s population share—if we are counting, which we are not.

It is not clear what level of security and protection the £2.5 billion would provide, but it would for sure be less than Denmark’s or Norway’s. The SNP plans are simply unaffordable, and I can only conclude that it would end up with its starting point of 7,500 soldiers. So much for restoring all Scotland’s historic regiments. Confounding Colonel Crawford’s hopes, the White Paper seems to offer more questions than answers.

It is clear that an independent Scottish state would have to wait in line for membership of the international organisations that the Scottish Government have hitherto believed Scotland would automatically join. If it wished to be a member of NATO, all 28 member states would need to agree unanimously to its accession, which is hardly likely, given the Scottish Government’s attitude to the strategic nuclear deterrent that lies at the very heart of the alliance’s strategic concept. It seems unlikely that the “Five Eyes” community would really bang on the door of a newly independent Scotland.

Companies based in an independent Scottish state would no longer be eligible for contracts that the UK chose to place, or to compete domestically, for national security reasons under article 346. All our complex warships are designed and built within the UK for reasons of national security, so as a foreign country, Scotland would no longer be eligible. Where companies in Scotland could continue to compete, they would be bidding in a cut-throat international market dominated by major economic powers. The sustainability of the defence industry in Scotland and the thousands of jobs that depend on it would therefore be cause for considerable concern.

The Scottish Government have shown a little bit of leg in the 19 pages on defence in their 649-page doorstopper, but there is no link between their defence wish list and the budget proposed to cover it. Their £2.5 billion—remember that that is our generous assessment—would be nowhere near enough to pay for their stated requirement and, like the hon. Gentleman, who is eagle-eyed, I notice that the figure does not cover their 2012 plans for conventional submarines, which were not mentioned in the following year’s White Paper. The Scottish Government say that they would have expensive platforms, such as Type 26 frigates, Typhoon jets and maritime patrol aircraft, and presumably the wherewithal to process and act on the data that MPAs generate, and would continue to operate all current major military bases, but the sums do not add up.

That is not to suggest that an independent Scotland could not build a defence force. Of course it could. However, what the Scottish Government are saying about what that force would be like is simply not credible—it is incredible. Whatever defence force an independent Scotland could develop, it would not come close to replicating the level of defence and security that comes from being part of the UK, which defends the country not on a regional basis, but as a whole.