Defence in Scotland after 2014

Thomas Docherty Excerpts

Tuesday 18th March 2014 Commons Chamber

[Thomas Docherty (Dunfermline and West Fife) (Lab)]

It is a privilege to have secured this important debate. Today is an important landmark for all of us in the United Kingdom as we head towards the referendum—it will take place in exactly six months. In exactly six months’ time, many people here in the Chamber and elsewhere will be knocking on doors, getting out the vote for our fellow Scots as they make a huge and life-changing decision about the future of our country and our nation.

One great problem we have is that we simply do not have enough information from the nationalists about what a future Scotland would be like in respect of a range of issues, not least defence. Disappointingly, not one Scottish National party Member could be bothered to turn up this evening, despite having had notice of this debate. That might be because they are too scared to come to defend their plans or because they do not yet know what their plans would be in an independent Scotland. I wish briefly to discuss three areas: my constituency, the Rosyth dockyard and the wider west Fife defence footprint; the wider impact on the defence industry across Scotland; and how Scotland would defend itself after a yes vote on 18 September.

Madam Deputy Speaker, you are very familiar with Scotland and, I am sure, with west Fife. You will know that the Rosyth dockyard is still the largest private employer in west Fife, employing about 2,800 people, the vast bulk of whom are working on the assembly of the two new aircraft carriers, the Queen Elizabeth and the Prince of Wales. That has been a long-standing project, one that we are particularly proud of in west Fife; we are the home of the construction of the Royal Navy’s new flagships. I see the hon. Member for Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt) in her place and, obviously, Portsmouth will be the home of the carriers once they enter service.

[Lindsay Roy (Glenrothes) (Lab)]

I thank my hon. Friend for securing this important debate. As he will be aware, I was invited to Rosyth by Babcock Marine and witnessed the impressive building of the new aircraft carrier, the Queen Elizabeth. I also saw, in the basin, the shells of seven former nuclear submarines, which still have some contamination. Apparently they are to be dismantled from 2016 onwards, but has he had any indication as to who will bear the financial responsibility for dismantling them and cleaning up the mess?

[Thomas Docherty]

I am most grateful to my hon. Friend, whose own constituency has a very strong defence footprint with Raytheon, which I might mention later. He is absolutely right to raise the issue of the seven decommissioned nuclear hulks, which are lashed against the wall in the basin, as it is unclear whose responsibility they would be if Scotland were independent. My understanding is that if they are determined to be fixed now in Rosyth, they would pass as a liability to the Scottish Government. However, if we believe they are part of the overall movable pool, a fraction of the 17 decommissioned submarines we have in the UK would be the responsibility of the Scottish Government. Either way, the Scottish Government would be stuck with a clean-up to do and would not know how to go about doing it. My hon. Friend is entirely right to have raised the subject. I hope that we can get some idea from Ministers in the two Governments over the next six months about how such ambiguity might be resolved before the referendum.

On the broader point about the two carriers, it is obvious that Portsmouth will be their home and the location in which their routine maintenance will be carried out. That is the correct decision. I remember one of the earliest times that the hon. Member for Portsmouth North and I debated that maintenance with the former Prime Minister, my right hon. Friend the Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown), in November 2010. As the Under-Secretary of State for Defence, the hon. Member for Ludlow (Mr Dunne), who has responsibility for defence procurement, said yesterday at Defence questions, Rosyth is clearly in prime position to provide deep maintenance. Babcock’s business plan is based on that assumption.

[Mr Iain McKenzie (Inverclyde) (Lab)]

I congratulate my hon. Friend on securing the debate, and I believe that there will be many such debates over the coming weeks and months about Scotland’s future after the referendum in September 2014. Is he as alarmed as I am by the recent press release by Babcock and the trade unions at Rosyth, which stated that without defence contracts, it would be impossible to sustain Babcock’s presence, and therefore its work force, in Rosyth?

[Thomas Docherty]

My hon. Friend is entirely correct. He is as perceptive as ever, because I was about to come to that point. Without that deep maintenance work, the Babcock business case is destroyed. Last week, Babcock’s industrial unions warned that 800 job losses would result. I pay tribute to the full-time convener, Raymond Duguid—one of my hon. Friend’s constituents—for his work and for the productive way in which the work force at Rosyth dockyard engage with the management. They are all on the same side; they all want to serve the customer, the nation and the Royal Navy. They have a shared concern, which it is important to highlight. Again, it is disappointing that not one SNP Member could be bothered to turn up for this important debate.

The work force and management have made it clear that there will be significant job losses, which will place the long-term viability of the yard under threat. I hope that the Minister will set out the Ministry of Defence’s vision for the future of the defence industry in West Fife. In the neighbouring constituency of my right hon. Friend the Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, there is a BAE Systems plant at Hillend, which makes parts for the Typhoon aircraft. In addition, my hon. Friend the Member for Glenrothes (Lindsay Roy) has Raytheon, a significant employer, in his constituency.

I commend the work of the House of Commons Defence and Scottish Affairs Committees, which have both looked at the implications of independence. Both Committees’ reports are useful, worthy and thoughtful pieces of work, and it is fair to say that they have reached similar conclusions. Many high-tech, specialised electronics companies such as BAE Systems and Raytheon would not be able to stay in Scotland unless specific guarantees were provided to the rest of the UK Government. So far, it has been clear from the SNP’s utterances that that is unlikely to happen. At a time when we are all pulling together and trying to secure, for example, new orders for the Typhoon in the middle east—we still hold out hope that we will also be successful in India and in Europe—it is slightly bizarre that the SNP is not engaging in a positive manner to help to secure those jobs in Scotland.

We cannot possibly discuss industrial strategy in Scotland without talking about the future of the Clyde. Incredibly difficult decisions had to be made, as part of the terms of business agreement, about the future of Portsmouth and the Clyde. I know how passionate people on the south coast are about the region’s, I think, 400-year history of shipbuilding, but the decision has been made to build the Royal Navy’s Type 26 frigate on the Clyde. We are seeing that arrangement developing, with the process of ensuring that Scotstoun, in particular, is ready to take on the work.

The SNP’s White Paper is a load of fiction. It says not only that an independent Scotland would buy the Type 26 but that the rest of the United Kingdom would build its Type 26s in Scotland.

[Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North) (Con)]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for securing this debate. Is he aware that the commercial sector has expressed considerable interest in building ships in Portsmouth? We have proved that we can compete not only with Scotland but with Dubai and with other shipyards around the world. Our shipyard facility and a skilled work force would stand ready to pick up orders for offshore patrol vessels, Type 26s and beyond if Scotland became a foreign country, as we would clearly wish to retain our sovereign capability.

[Thomas Docherty]

I am grateful for that helpful intervention, which demonstrates something that the SNP will not acknowledge—namely, that there are and will continue to be alternatives to the Clyde. It is absolute nonsense to suggest that English MPs with shipyards in their constituencies would simply say to the Ministry of Defence, “Go on, give that multi-million pound order to another country, even though we have pressing needs in our own yards.” There is no way that English MPs would do that, be they in Plymouth, Appledore, Portsmouth or Barrow—or, indeed, on Tyneside. And how could we forget the Jarrow yard or the Birkenhead yard? There is no shortage of space for these construction contracts.

[Mr McKenzie]

Speaking as one who represents a constituency on the banks of the Clyde, I can tell my hon. Friend and the hon. Member for Portsmouth North (Penny Mordaunt) that there were no celebrations there when Portsmouth was losing out and the Clyde was gaining. There is a connection and a deep sympathy between all the shipbuilding industries around the country.

[Thomas Docherty]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. That was not a day of celebration. There are genuine ties between the various yards. They share a common union body—the Confederation of Shipbuilding and Engineering Unions—and they campaign together to protect and sustain this crucial industry, which is in our national interest.

[Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)]

Harland and Wolff in Belfast does not have the capacity to produce ships, as it has diversified into the oilfield sector, but there is capability there. We very much want to be part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and I want to place on record that we pledge our yards to be used in the service of the Royal Navy.

[Thomas Docherty]

There is obviously no shortage of firms to carry out this work. I see that my hon. Friend the Member for Ochil and South Perthshire (Gordon Banks) is in the Chamber. He was gracious enough to take me along to see a company in his constituency, Vector Aerospace. He has been a real champion of that company. It is inconceivable to me that the British Army and the Royal Air Force would continue to send Chinook parts to Perthshire for repair, if Perthshire were to be in a foreign country, when they could have the work done elsewhere in the United Kingdom. I say again that it is disappointing that not one SNP Member is here tonight. Perhaps that is because they are fearties, but they should be here to make their case, and to explain to the people of Scotland what the implications of independence are for defence and the defence industries.

I have said quite a lot about manufacturing, so I shall turn now to the so-called Scottish defence force. Over the past 12 to 18 months we have seen the SNP changing its position and rewriting documents. It went from being outside NATO and completely opposed to it, to being a full member, without even having to apply. It then changed its policy again. When the Minister for Transport and Veterans, Keith Brown, appeared before the Defence Committee last July, he admitted that an independent Scotland would have to apply for NATO membership. That was then flatly contradicted by Alex Salmond, who continues to put around the lie that somehow Scotland would automatically be a member of NATO. It would be helpful if the Minister could tell us what he thinks about those contradictory positions. SNP Ministers say one thing when they are under oath in front of a Select Committee and then say something completely different when they are safely back in Scotland and they think that no one is paying attention to them.

There are some serious concerns about the ability of Scotland to defend itself given the SNP’s plans. It was quite clear from when the Defence Committee took evidence that, in order to maintain simple air defences, Scotland would need, according to Air Marshal Iain McNicol, the equivalent of two squadrons of Typhoon aircraft. The SNP now claims that it would inherit a number of aircraft from the Royal Air Force. That is based on the argument, with which I have a huge amount of sympathy, that that is what happened in Czechoslovakia when it broke up. A proportion of aircraft went to the Czech Republic and a proportion to the Slovak Republic. Even under the most generous of assumptions—the Ministry of Defence has done the figures and they were used by the Secretary of State last year—Scotland would have only eight Typhoon aircraft. It would have to spend more than £1 billion purchasing additional Typhoons.

The same is true with regard to the Royal Navy. Again, the SNP is making contradictory statements. It claims in its party policy that it wants a squadron of submarines, yet in its White Paper, there was no mention of submarines. Perhaps like many other SNP policies, that has sunk beneath the waves.

The SNP has also claimed that it would need 15,000 regular personnel. Although the Minister and I may disagree on aspects of the strategic defence and security review, I am sure that we agree on the correct way of approaching a defence policy. One needs to set out strategic aims and threats, what posture needs to be adopted and what personnel and equipment numbers are needed to effect that posture. Then one needs to put together the money. What the SNP has done is to pick a random figure of 15,000. At no point has it provided any coherent explanation as to what it is, nor has it explained from where the troops would be recruited. Where would these air men and women, sailors and soldiers come from? The SNP claims that it is entitled to those members of the armed forces who have some sort of Scottish qualification.

[Mr McKenzie]

Is the SNP not also claiming that, in order to keep the same level of work force at Faslane, it would base the Army, the Navy and the Air Force in that area—putting all its eggs in one basket? How defensive is that?

[Thomas Docherty]

My hon. Friend makes an important point. The SNP proposes to put its joint headquarters command for the three services at Faslane. The best and most optimistic estimate that the Defence Committee was able to make of the total headcount of the conventional Navy that the SNP would create under the joint headquarters command is that it would only, at most, provide approximately 4,500 personnel at Faslane, compared with the 8,000 who are there now. That force will get bigger over the next year as the Astute-class moves to Faslane. The SNP’s numbers just do not add up.

The other point that has not been touched on is training. If we were to assume that within the 15,000 head count, about 8,000 to 10,000 were Army, the SNP would need approximately 200 officer cadets every year to populate its officer corps.

Sandhurst takes only 120 international students a year at the moment and the SNP is silent on where its officers will be trained. Are we going to see “MacSandhurst” in the Glen? Are we going to see “MacDartmouth” or “MacCranwell”? Will the SNP come back to the Minister after independence begging for places at Sandhurst, Dartmouth and Cranwell? Those are the unanswered questions.

Finally, on the issue of cap badges, the SNP claims that it is entitled to all the Scottish regiments but has never quite explained what it means by a Scottish regiment. The 1st Foot and the Blues and Royals might disagree, but arguably the oldest regiment in the British Army is the Coldstream Guards. Coldstream is a fine Borders town only a few miles from England from which General Monck set off to restore the monarchy in 1660, hence its name being given to the guards unit formed in the new army. It would appear that the SNP would argue that it is entitled to the Coldstream Guards, except that the Coldstream Guards predate the British Army as they date from 1660. I know that I am in a room of knowledgeable historians who would all be able to tell the House that they were part of King Charles II’s English army. Even at that simple level, the SNP has no basic understanding of what a Scottish regiment is.

What happens to all those Scots who are serving in other regiments? They might not wish to come back to the Scottish defence force. What will happen to those men and women who are serving in so-called Scottish units who are not lucky enough to be from Scotland? What will happen to our fine Fijians? We have the finest Fijians in the Scottish battalions. Would they be forced to adopt the Scottish defence force?

In short and in conclusion, the SNP’s plans are incoherent, they do not add up and they are dishonest. The SNP owes it to the people of Scotland to set out the reality before 18 September so that people can make a choice. Tonight, young, brave Scotsmen and women are serving in the armed forces around the world—in Afghanistan, the Falklands or elsewhere. I hope we will always remember how proud they are to serve our nation.

--- Later in debate ---

[Dr Murrison]

I am glad that the hon. Gentleman raises that point. In fact, I have been flicking through the press cuttings for today which had something to say on the matter. The Scottish edition of The Times has the headline, “Businesses get ready to leave in event of independence vote”. The Scottish edition of the Daily Mail says, “An uncertain future is our biggest worry, say business bosses”. The Herald says, “Business leaders ‘concerned about uncertainty over referendum’”. I do not think it needs me to say what that all adds up to. Taken with the remarks of business leaders from all sectors currently, and I suspect increasingly as we approach 18 September, it means that our concerns over jobs in Scotland in the event of independence are mounting almost by the day. I know that the hon. Gentleman, as the Member of Parliament for an area that depends heavily on our defence industry, will feel extremely strongly about this and will continue to make representations on it over the next six months.

[Thomas Docherty]

Further to that point and the point the Minister made about that work of fiction, the Scottish White Paper, was he as surprised as I was that the only mention of Rosyth in the whole document was as a possible future supplementary naval base? There is no mention at all about ship maintenance. Would he care to speculate on why the SNP would do that?

[Dr Murrison]

I have given up speculating about the SNP, but I agree with the hon. Gentleman that it is somewhat odd, even in the simple 19 pages on defence in this remarkable 649-page document, that Rosyth should feature so poorly. That is truly remarkable and I think the hon. Gentleman’s constituents are entitled to draw their own conclusions from that.

I believe that Scotland should continue to benefit from every pound spent on UK defence. We of course have one of the largest budgets in the world at £33.5 billion this year. The £2.5 billion grudgingly conceded by Mr Salmond for both defence and security simply pales in comparison.

As part of the UK, Scotland will continue, as it has done for 300 years, to play an integral part in all aspects of UK defence. As UK citizens, Scots will continue to be employed in world-class armed forces, and Scotland will continue to be home to critical high-end military capabilities across the defence piece. In fact, on our current plans, the defence presence in Scotland will increase over the coming years. As the hon. Member for Strangford (Jim Shannon) has pointed out, by 2020 Scotland will be home to one of the Royal Navy’s main bases, including all of its submarines—I will come back to submarines in a moment—as well as to one of the British Army’s seven adaptable force brigades and one of three Royal Air Force fast-jet main operating bases.

At a time when the overall number of our regular armed forces personnel is necessarily decreasing, the number based in Scotland is set to increase from about 11,000 now to 12,500 by 2020, which is about 8.8% of the UK total.

UK defence generates economic benefits for communities throughout Scotland though jobs, contracts and support services. Her Majesty’s Naval Base Clyde is the biggest employment site in Scotland, with about 6,700 military and civilian jobs, increasing to 8,200 by 2022.

The hon. Member for Dunfermline and West Fife has eloquently described the importance of defence to the east coast, and every constituency in Scotland has people whose livelihoods depend on defence and that are subsequently at risk.

Scotland, as part of the UK, will continue to benefit from a strong, established global network of international relationships and alliances that would be unavailable to an independent Scotland, at best for years and possibly indefinitely.

[Dr Murrison]

I agree entirely with the hon. Gentleman, who has anticipated my next point, which is that the UK has geopolitical influence that few states of a similar size can match. That influence would be put at risk in a dramatic way were this country to be split in two. Together, undoubtedly we punch well above our weight. Apart, we would certainly be diminished, with substantial geopolitical consequences that would reach far beyond these shores. It is interesting that many of our partners are watching this situation very closely indeed—even more closely, I have to say, than many of our own citizens on these islands—because they fully understand what is at stake in September.

Because we are together, the UK is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, a leading member of the European Union and a founder member of NATO. It is central to the “Five Eyes” community. The benefits for Scotland’s defence industry as part of the UK are especially important to the hon. Member for Dunfermline and West Fife, as he has pointed out.

The scale of our defence spending is a key factor in sustaining those indigenous defence industries. The Ministry of Defence spent more than £20 billion with UK industry in 2011-12. Over the 10 years from 2012-13, it will spend almost £160 billion on new equipment and data systems. That spending sustains a substantial industrial footprint in Scotland, from complex warships to the latest high-tech innovations in aerospace engineering, defence electronics and electro-optical systems in companies based throughout the country, employing thousands of people in high-skill and relatively high-salary positions. Many of our prime contractors—Babcock, BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Selex ES, Thales, Raytheon and QinetiQ—have sites in Scotland. The defence sector in Scotland employs about 12,600 people, with 4,000 jobs in Scottish shipyards being directly linked to the aircraft carrier programme alone.

The SNP may be able to marshal arguments in support of independence, beyond its cynical offer of free child care, but even its ex-parliamentary candidate Colonel Stuart Crawford asked rhetorically whether the Scottish Government White Paper would provide at least some answers. In the event, we were left little the wiser from its 649 pages.

John Swinney’s secret admission that his defence budget would be less than the £2.5 billion asserted by the SNP is interesting, but let us generously assume that that is the figure. That would be for both defence and security, presumably including intelligence and cyber, but it is only about 7% of the UK’s combined budgets for defence, intelligence and cyber, and it is significantly less than Scotland’s population share—if we are counting, which we are not.

It is not clear what level of security and protection the £2.5 billion would provide, but it would for sure be less than Denmark’s or Norway’s. The SNP plans are simply unaffordable, and I can only conclude that it would end up with its starting point of 7,500 soldiers. So much for restoring all Scotland’s historic regiments. Confounding Colonel Crawford’s hopes, the White Paper seems to offer more questions than answers.

It is clear that an independent Scottish state would have to wait in line for membership of the international organisations that the Scottish Government have hitherto believed Scotland would automatically join. If it wished to be a member of NATO, all 28 member states would need to agree unanimously to its accession, which is hardly likely, given the Scottish Government’s attitude to the strategic nuclear deterrent that lies at the very heart of the alliance’s strategic concept. It seems unlikely that the “Five Eyes” community would really bang on the door of a newly independent Scotland.

Companies based in an independent Scottish state would no longer be eligible for contracts that the UK chose to place, or to compete domestically, for national security reasons under article 346. All our complex warships are designed and built within the UK for reasons of national security, so as a foreign country, Scotland would no longer be eligible. Where companies in Scotland could continue to compete, they would be bidding in a cut-throat international market dominated by major economic powers. The sustainability of the defence industry in Scotland and the thousands of jobs that depend on it would therefore be cause for considerable concern.

The Scottish Government have shown a little bit of leg in the 19 pages on defence in their 649-page doorstopper, but there is no link between their defence wish list and the budget proposed to cover it. Their £2.5 billion—remember that that is our generous assessment—would be nowhere near enough to pay for their stated requirement and, like the hon. Gentleman, who is eagle-eyed, I notice that the figure does not cover their 2012 plans for conventional submarines, which were not mentioned in the following year’s White Paper. The Scottish Government say that they would have expensive platforms, such as Type 26 frigates, Typhoon jets and maritime patrol aircraft, and presumably the wherewithal to process and act on the data that MPAs generate, and would continue to operate all current major military bases, but the sums do not add up.

That is not to suggest that an independent Scotland could not build a defence force. Of course it could. However, what the Scottish Government are saying about what that force would be like is simply not credible—it is incredible. Whatever defence force an independent Scotland could develop, it would not come close to replicating the level of defence and security that comes from being part of the UK, which defends the country not on a regional basis, but as a whole.

[Thomas Docherty]

The Minister is making a compelling speech. I do not know whether he has had the chance to look at the evidence of Air Vice-Marshal Nicholl to the Defence Committee. He said that if he were to start again as a young, aspiring pilot, he would not wish to join a separate Scottish air force, because he would not have the same opportunities that he had in the Royal Air Force. It was a Scot who said that. Does the Minister agree that a problem for the SNP is how it would recruit people? Why would people want to serve in the services if there were such restricted opportunities?

[Dr Murrison]

We have to imagine what Scotland’s defence force would look like with £2.5 billion or less. It would be very small indeed. It follows that the high-tech, high-end capability to which I have referred will simply not be available in Scotland. It seems inconceivable that the sort of men and women who join our armed forces would be attracted to such a proposition. I fear that the air vice-marshal is correct in his assertion. I hope that people in Scotland who are tempted by a career in the armed forces are not faced with the conundrum of whether to join a Scottish defence force or the armed forces of the United Kingdom. That would be a great pity for them and, potentially, a huge waste of talent. Traditionally, Scotland has provided some of the very best people in our armed forces. The loss to defence in this country in the event that Scotland went independent would be felt not least in the manpower and capabilities that those men and women provide.

Scotland’s defence and the UK’s best interests will be served by a strong no vote on 18 September. I suspect that the SNP knows that and would dearly like to park defence and security, so that it can focus on things like free child care, which it already has the power to grant, even if that will be pre-empted by tomorrow’s statement. I do not think that it is by chance that there are no SNP Members here tonight. They are concerned about their defence and security offer to the voters of Scotland on 18 September and would like to talk about something else. I do not intend to let the Scottish Government get away with their obfuscation and litany of half-truths on one of the major determinants of nationhood. My helpful advice to the SNP—I do try to be helpful where I can—is to admit that Scotland’s defence and its defence industry would be a casualty of independence and, in the six months remaining to it, to campaign on something else.

Question put and agreed to.