Finance Bill
Lord Livermore ExcerptsFriday 17th July 2020
(4 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab) [V]
My Lords, this Finance Bill gives effect to the tax measures announced in the Chancellor’s Spring Budget. Although just four months ago, that already feels like a Budget from a different age. The subsequent Covid-19 pandemic created an unprecedented shock to the economy and the Government’s policy response was unparalleled. At 20% of GDP, it was the largest peacetime fiscal expansion in British history. Now, in his summer economic update, the Chancellor has continued to accept that he needs to intervene to support the economy by announcing an additional £30 billion of measures that bring the total cost of economic support, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, to £192 billion, with a further £122 billion spent on loans and deferred taxes since the start of this crisis. Government borrowing is now on course to reach more than £350 billion this year. At an estimated 18% of GDP, the deficit will be twice the size reached during the 2008 global financial crisis.
The UK economy was already exceptionally weak before this pandemic, recording its worst ever average annual growth forecast in the Spring Budget. Going forward, the impact of coronavirus will be vast. This is the deepest recession in history; the economy could contract more this year than in any year since 1706. This week’s monthly GDP data show a steeper decline in March and a slower pickup in May than had been expected, leaving the economy still 25% smaller than before this crisis began. Now, as well as the UK recording the highest excess death rate in the world, Britain is also forecast to suffer the worst recession of any country in the G7.
Against this backdrop of a pandemic-induced recession, the Government have decided that the end of this year is the right time to end the transition period, imposing a red-tape bill on British business of between £7 billion and £13 billion a year. The Government’s paucity of ambition in seeking only a free trade deal, and focusing solely on tariff reduction for goods trade—when modern trade is dominated by supply chains and Britain’s strength lies in services—means that even if they achieve the deal they seek we will still see a reduction in GDP of some 6.7%, compared to staying in the single market. This puts further pressure on business, the economy and the public finances at a time of already unprecedented economic disruption.
This week’s Fiscal Sustainability Report from the Office for Budget Responsibility highlights the risk of huge job losses from this pandemic unless we see further government action. It estimates that 15% of furloughed workers will lose their jobs, meaning that unemployment would peak at 12%—some 4 million people—by the end of this year. The Labour Party has consistently argued that the furlough scheme must now evolve to deliver sectoral-specific support, targeting help where it is needed most, supporting employment in industries that are viable in the long term and protecting our country’s economic capacity for the future. Instead, the Chancellor announced in his economic update that the furlough scheme will be wound down in October, replacing it with a much less generous and very poorly targeted jobs retention bonus. The risk now is that billions of pounds will be spent on a policy that does very little to protect jobs.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned that a majority of this money will go to jobs that would
“have been returned from furlough anyway”
while the Resolution Foundation argues that
“the deadweight in the scheme will be large”
while
“the scale and temporary nature of the bonus means”
that it will have no “major impact on employment”. The Resolution Foundation went on to conclude that this lack of further action on jobs leaves the Chancellor risking higher unemployment this autumn.
The temporary cut in stamp duty, also announced by the Chancellor, raises further questions about the Government’s willingness to target support on the areas that need it most. He announced about the first £500,000 of residential property purchases would be stamp duty-exempt for the next nine months—a measure we are also debating today. All measures which help to get the economy moving are of course welcome and, at a cost of £3.8 billion, it is a very significant revenue giveaway. But the main beneficiaries will be buyers of costlier properties in London and the south-east. The average buyer in London will be more than £14,000 better off, while the average buyer in the north-east will gain nothing.
The threshold increase also temporarily removes one of the few advantages that young people had in the housing market, while doing almost nothing to help first-time buyers. By including second-home buyers and buy-to-let investors, this measure will cost an additional £1.3 billion. It is surely right that we examine whether this delivers value for money, or whether these funds could be better spent supporting much-needed genuinely affordable and social housing.
The Chancellor’s announcement of targeted VAT cuts on hospitality, leisure and tourism are of course welcome, when local businesses are desperately in need of that support, as is the kick-start scheme to create jobs for young people, particularly since young workers have been among those hardest hit by this crisis so far. This policy is almost an exact replica of the Future Jobs Fund, introduced during the global financial crisis and previously cancelled by this Government. The scale of job creation required will be a major delivery challenge, requiring many jobs to be created by local authorities decimated by a decade of cuts. In a signal of a potential return to such austerity, the Chancellor warned in his statement last week:
“Over the medium term, we must, and we will, put our public finances back on a sustainable footing.”—[Official Report, Commons, 8/7/20; col. 974.]
Before this crisis, public finances were already rapidly deteriorating, with debt having doubled to £2 trillion and being set to reach nearly 80% of GDP. If the Chancellor now decides to increase taxes before the recovery, or to cut public services, he risks damaging demand and inhibiting the growth that our economy and public finances desperately need. The Chancellor must also ensure that the distribution of any such measures is borne more fairly than in the previous decade, when money was found to reduce the top rate of income tax while the incomes of the poorest in society were cut by some 15%.
Ultimately, very few of the measures announced by the Chancellor so far will make a significant difference if people are unwilling, or unable, to leave their homes in the months ahead. The British economy is being held back, not because families are waiting for £10 off their restaurant bill but because they are still worried for their health.
The Government were too slow into lockdown, too slow on track and trace and are now too slow on saving jobs. They have damaged public confidence and, in turn, harmed consumer demand. Only when the Government have in place an exit strategy that generates confidence will they be able to genuinely address the huge challenges that our country and economy must now confront.
The Deputy Speaker
With the leave of your Lordships’ House, I now call the Minister to make his opening remarks.
Manifesto Commitments
Lord Livermore Excerpts(4 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab) [V]
My Lords, to follow on from the question asked by the noble Lord, Lord Young of Cookham, in addition to promising not to
“borrow to fund day-to-day spending”,
the Government’s manifesto promised not to
“raise the rate of income tax, VAT or National Insurance”,
not to increase any taxes on small businesses and to “keep the triple lock” on pensions. Is the Minister able to guarantee that these commitments remain unchanged in light of the Covid-19 pandemic?
Lord True
My Lords, I am absolutely delighted that the noble Lord is such an avid reader of the Conservative manifesto; I hope he found it improving reading. I repeat that my right honourable friend the Chancellor of the Exchequer will make a financial statement later this year.
Unemployment
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Lord Agnew of Oulton [V]
As the noble Baroness will know, our furlough scheme has been one of the most generous in Europe, and the whole point of it is to protect productive capacity. We certainly hope that, over the next few months, its gradual withdrawal will give businesses time to adjust and come to terms with what the opportunities are for them to get back into business. We will certainly keep the mechanisms of universal credit under review. However, it is a far more flexible system than existed in the past.
Lord Livermore (Lab) [V]
My Lords, as my noble friend Lord Reid pointed out, the OECD said yesterday that Britain’s economy would suffer the worst damage from the Covid-19 pandemic of any G7 country. I do not think that the Minister gave my noble friend a specific answer to his question, so perhaps I may ask again what specifically targeted help he will be able to offer those in the hardest-hit sectors of the economy, which will take longer to reopen and recover.
Lord Agnew of Oulton [V]
As the noble Lord probably is aware, we have given significant support to areas such as entertainment in the form of grants and business rates relief. For those that missed out on rates relief, we brought in the additional £600 million facility for local authorities to support those businesses that were not in the business rates relief regime. We will continue to assess the situation and we have ensured that several of these types of businesses, such as garden centres, have reopened recently. Yesterday, we announced that zoos can reopen. As we come up with a formula for businesses to reopen safely, we will continue to do that.
Covid-19: Public Wealth Investment Fund
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Lord Agnew of Oulton [V]
I agree with the noble Lord that social benefit is an extremely important part of the recovery. To that end, we are consulting on our rules for public procurement at the moment to include social values as part of the scoring system.
Lord Livermore (Lab) [V]
My Lords, bold and ambitious schemes, such as a public wealth fund, will be necessary to support businesses in the medium term. However, we are seeing an immediate surge in insolvencies and job losses, and action is needed before such schemes can be established. What targeted help can the Minister offer the hardest-hit sectors of the economy, such as hospitality and tourism, which will take longer to reopen and recover?
Lord Agnew of Oulton [V]
Our first priority as a Government has been to try to protect the productive capacity of the economy, which is why we have one of the most generous furlough schemes in Europe. On the hospitality side, we have provided cash grants of £10,000 for properties with small rateable values of under £15,000, and cash grants of £25,000 for those with a rateable value of between £15,000 and £51,000. We will continue to monitor how the leisure sector recovers from this crisis.
Covid-19: Economy
Lord Livermore Excerpts(4 years, 5 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
My Lords, I thank my noble friend Lord Eatwell for securing this debate. I congratulate him on his wide-ranging opening speech. The Covid-19 pandemic has delivered a shock to economic activity, unprecedented in speed and severity. The OBR’s initial scenario sees GDP fall by 35% in the second quarter, unemployment rise by more than 2 million, government borrowing increase to £273 billion, and debt exceed 100% of GDP. As the IFS has observed, these figures are predicated on a swift recovery. Should the economy fail to bounce back, the picture would worsen further.
The Resolution Foundation has reflected this uncertainty with a range of forecasts, depending on whether social distancing lasts for three, six or 12 months. It estimates that GDP would fall this year by 10%, 20% or 24% respectively, with unemployment rising to 2 million, 5 million or over 7 million. Irrespective of how severe the coming recession turns out to be, this pandemic has exposed significant flaws in the UK economy. It has revealed deep inequalities, with the economic effects disproportionately experienced by the low paid and the young. It risks exacerbating them still further. Unemployment will be concentrated in the lowest-paid sectors. Those soon to leave school or to graduate will enter a very bleak labour market.
Addressing these inequalities will be key to building a stronger, fairer, post-crisis economy, with far greater resilience for the future. As we do so, we will need to see a radically different approach from that of the past decade, when we saw the slowest recovery for eight generations: living standards were undermined, public services weakened, and our welfare system underfunded. As the Government begin to restore fiscal sustainability, ensuring that the burden is borne fairly across society must be paramount. In the previous decade, while money was found to cut the top rate of tax, the poorest families had their incomes cut by more than 15%. As we repair our economy, we must learn the lessons of this crisis and of the past decade, so that we can build a new social contract, fit for the future.
Covid-19: Economic Package
Lord Livermore Excerpts(4 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for repeating the Chancellor’s Statement. We welcome the extension of the job retention scheme, the additional flexibility provided and the fact that the Chancellor has listened to concerns by maintaining a level of support at 80%. Advanced briefing to the media suggested that people need to be “weaned off” state support. I hope the Minister shares my concerns about the use of such language and agrees that nobody ever wanted to find themselves in this situation. The amount that firms will be asked to contribute must avoid triggering further redundancies, so could the Minister confirm when employers will be required to start making contributions, whether these contributions will be phased in and what level of contribution they will be asked to pay?
Lord Agnew of Oulton
My Lords, all the details that the noble Lord has asked about are being worked out at the moment. That is why we will not be able to announce the full details until the end of this month. However, as was set out in my right honourable friend’s Statement yesterday, our overriding priority is to protect jobs in this country and to protect businesses. A balance needs to be struck to achieve those two things.
Income Equality and Sustainability
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
My Lords, it is a privilege to pay tribute to the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of York, whose commitment to equality shone through in his opening speech, as it has done throughout his career. I hope that he will continue his campaigning work in the years ahead.
Britain is a deeply unequal society. Income inequality is the fifth highest in the OECD, and there are vast inequalities in wealth, opportunity, education and life expectancy. It is tempting to believe that the Covid-19 pandemic is a great leveller, yet these inequalities have become greatly magnified. The economic effects of the pandemic are disproportionately experienced by the low paid and the young. Those working in shut-down sectors are seven times more likely to be the lowest paid, and those under 25 are three times more likely to work in hospitality or retail—sectors that have closed entirely. The health risks are disproportionately borne by the poor, those from black and minority-ethnic backgrounds, and women, because they are more likely to be key workers, live in cramped accommodation, or have an underlying health condition.
Alongside exposing the inequalities in our society, this health emergency also risks exacerbating them further. Unemployment will be concentrated in the lowest-paid sectors, potentially scarring future employment and earnings. Those soon to leave school or graduate will enter a labour market in severe recession, with lower job prospects and wages. For school-age children, prolonged periods out of the classroom are particularly damaging to those from poorer backgrounds.
Despite this bleak picture, the response to the virus has shown us a better way. While homelessness has doubled over the past decade, funding has now been found to house more than 90% of rough sleepers. Meanwhile, air quality has dramatically improved, as nitrogen dioxide levels have halved. No one, of course, would choose for life to continue as now, but we do face a choice about the society we want to be. As we commemorate VE Day, let us remember how that victory signalled a desire for change, and go forward with the same determination to build a new social contract, fit for the future.
Budget: Economic and Fiscal Outlook
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Lord Livermore (Lab)
My Lords, the Covid-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented shock to the economy. In response, the Government’s fiscal policy measures are unparalleled. At 20% of GDP, it is the largest peacetime fiscal expansion in British history. Against this backdrop, the March Budget, just eight weeks ago, already feels like a plan for a different age, yet it was clear even then that the Chancellor presided over an economy with serious underlying weaknesses, presenting the worst average growth forecast on record and rapidly deteriorating public finances, with debt having doubled to £2 trillion, reaching nearly 80% of GDP.
The impact of coronavirus on the economy will be vast. The OBR has published an initial scenario in which GDP falls by 35% in the second quarter, unemployment rises by more than 2 million to 10%, government borrowing increases to £273 billion—the largest single-year deficit since the Second World War—and debt exceeds 100% of GDP. As the IFS has observed:
“These figures are predicated on … a swift recovery. Should the … economy fail to bounce back, the picture would worsen further.”
The Resolution Foundation has reflected this uncertainty with a range of forecasts depending on whether social distancing lasts for three, six, or 12 months. It estimates that GDP will fall this year by 10%, 20% or 24%, with unemployment rising to 2 million, 5 million or more than 7 million. In its three-month scenario, government borrowing reaches 11% of GDP, higher than during the financial crisis, 22% in its six-month scenario, higher than any point in peacetime, and 38% in its 12-month scenario—more than the UK has borrowed in any single year in history.
Faced even with economic consequences on this scale, the Government will apparently still end the Brexit transition period this year. There is a clear risk of no deal, which according to their own assessment would reduce GDP by 9% and, even if they achieve the free trade deal they are seeking, on their own figures this would reduce GDP by 6% compared to staying in the single market, putting additional strain on the economy, which is already under unparalleled pressure.
However severe the coming recession, policymakers will need to manage a protracted period of disruption to livelihoods and finances. There will be an urgent need to rebuild the economy and we will need a radically different approach to the past decade, when we saw the worst period of pay growth for 200 years.
In time, the Government will also need to begin restoring fiscal sustainability; again, we will need a very different approach to what has gone before. In the previous decade, while money was found to cut the top rate of tax and some of the richest families gained £1,000 a year, the poorest lost £3,000—15% of their income. The financial resilience of many families was undermined and our economy and public services were weakened, ill-prepared and ill-equipped for the storms ahead. Subsequent Budgets must move away from the failed strategy of the past and build a new social contract that is fit for the future.
Tax Avoidance
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Lord Agnew of Oulton
My Lords, all the support that we have offered has been aimed at keeping businesses going and securing employment, mostly through the furlough scheme. While I take on board the noble Lord’s concerns, I believe that the rapid action that we have taken, which has to be general by the definition of the time period that we have had to operate in, has helped to secure businesses’ long-term future, which is our priority.
Lord Livermore (Lab)
My Lords, many other countries have set out strict requirements to prevent state support enabling not only tax avoidance but excessive executive pay and high dividend payments. Do the Government support a moratorium on dividend payments and share buybacks for companies that receive state support, and will they introduce specific rules to prevent tax-avoiding companies benefiting from government schemes?
Lord Agnew of Oulton
I assure the noble Lord that all these things are continuously under review. As I mentioned briefly in the previous Question, we have introduced in days things that could often take years, so by definition we are keeping a very careful eye on them. To give the noble Lord some reassurance, with most of these loan schemes, businesses have to show that they are viable, and if they are going to continue to pay dividends the banks will take a view on that and decide whether it is appropriate. These are not automatic entitlements; they have to be justified.
Covid-19: Self-employed
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The Lord Speaker (Lord Fowler)
Baroness Ritchie of Downpatrick. Baroness Ritchie? Okay, we will move on to the noble Lord, Lord Livermore.
Lord Livermore (Lab)
My Lords, as noble Lords have made clear, there are significant gaps in the current scheme. My noble friend Lady Young asked about the numbers not covered by it. How many self-employed people will now see substantial reductions in their income as a result of not being covered by the existing scheme? Will the Minister consider additional measures to provide protection for them?
Lord Agnew of Oulton
My Lords, we estimate that 95% of small businesses will benefit from the structure of the schemes we have been discussing. Beyond that, we have made enhancements to the universal credit system that will benefit small business proprietors who are caught and do not benefit from the broader measures. I can put into Hansard a detailed explanation of how those changes work, because they are quite complicated and I am conscious of the need for brevity.