UK Economy

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Monday 19th February 2024 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the Scottish National party spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The Minister spoke about resilience, but the fourth quarter contraction in the economy was the biggest quarterly fall since early 2021 at the height of the covid pandemic, so I am not sure he is quite right about resilience. He also spoke about growth, but the Government told us in November that growth is not forecast to exceed 2% in any year in the forecast period. How modest the Minister’s ambitions are.

National debt is still approaching 100% of GDP—£3 trillion. The consequences of Brexit are suppressing growth, and that poses a challenge to the UK Government’s fiscal targets. Although it is welcome that inflation has fallen, prices remain high. Prices are not falling; they are simply going up slightly less steeply than they were a month or two ago. It is obvious that what the economy needs is growth, and the investment to generate that growth, but given that business investment, according to the Government, is forecast down this year by 5.6%, private dwelling investment is forecast down this year by 6%, and flat at 0% next year, and general Government investment is forecast down in ’25, ’26, ’27 and ’28, where will the investment for growth come from?

Mortgage Charter

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Monday 26th June 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call Scottish National party spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

With a debt to GDP ratio of 100%, the Chancellor was rather brave to talk about sound money. However, I welcome the statement and early sight of it. Notwithstanding the fact that it was described by Reuters as a package of limited relief measures, it is none the less necessary and welcome, with support from lenders, no repossession within 12 months of a missed payment, the chance to lock in a deal six months early, a temporary move to interest-only, and no impact on customer credit scores. The Chancellor’s words about anxiety and concern struck the right tone, unlike his Prime Minister yesterday.

However, that that does not begin to answer some of the fundamental questions. Given that the base rate drives the mortgage rate, and the base rate, as the Chancellor knows, is the primary tool that the Bank has to tackle rising inflation, is this now not the time to review the Bank of England’s targets and tools? Secondly, are the Government genuinely convinced that using a rising base rate to tackle input inflation caused by external shocks is the best approach we have, other than to tip the economy into recession, as some people are suggesting? I hope the Chancellor would agree that that would be an idiotic and catastrophic thing to do. Thirdly and finally, should we now not revert to forward guidance on base rates from the Bank of England, as we had under Mark Carney during the financial crisis? It may not affect the trajectory of interest rates and mortgage rates initially, although it might, but it would certainly provide certainty to business, retail and mortgage borrowers.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 20th June 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The cost of a two-year fixed mortgage in March 2021 was 2.57%; this week, it reached 6%. The Chancellor and the Economic Secretary have said there are no plans to change the Bank of England inflation target, meaning that the base rate that drives the mortgage rate will continue to rise as inflation stays stubbornly high, and mortgages will go up. In the absence of such a change, what do the Government plan to do to actually tackle the mortgage pain people are suffering?

Mortgage Market

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 13th June 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Millions of households are now struggling as their fixed-rate mortgages end and they are moved to much higher variable rates. We also know that only a third of the households that are expected to move from cheap fixed-rate deals have done so, so there is a great deal of pain to go, with 116,000 households a month coming off fixed-rate deals.

Some in the City are suggesting that what we are seeing is a complete reset of the mortgage market, which would imply that there should be a complete reset of the Government’s approach. Given that changes to mortgage rates are driven by changes to the base rate, and that the base rate is the central bank’s primary tool to meet the 2% inflation target handed to it by the Government, what discussions have the Government had with the Governor of the central bank about the effectiveness, or the appropriateness, of an inflation target being the primary target that the central bank works towards?

[Andrew Griffith]

At his spring statement, the Chancellor was very clear about the Bank of England’s continued remit, beyond which it remains operationally independent. It has been a long-standing feature of this House that Treasury Ministers do not tell the Bank of England how to run monetary policy. Three of the Prime Minister’s five priorities are getting the economy growing, reducing debt and halving inflation.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 9th May 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The incentives offered by investment zones include 100% business rates relief and enhanced capital allowances. With the exception of reduced national insurance contributions, it is hard to see the difference between an investment zone and an enterprise zone. What additional fiscal support are the Government providing to differentiate these investment zones from enterprise zones?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 21st March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the Scottish National party spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Last August, there were 75,000 mortgage approvals. That number halved by December. We are all aware of the reports from late last year of the number of mortgage products that were removed and the troubling reports of mortgage offers being withdrawn. Before we even get to the issue of support for mortgage holders, what is the Treasury doing to ensure the availability of mortgages, a good range of mortgage products and an end to offers being withdrawn unless there is a very, very good reason to do so?

Silicon Valley Bank

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Monday 13th March 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

One of the key lessons of the 2008-09 financial crash was that the conduct of business and liquidity issues could very quickly morph into systemic risk with contagion across a variety of transmission channels, so I very much welcome the speedy way in which the SVB UK issue was resolved over the weekend. However, that bank’s business model—and it is not alone—involved it holding a large number of low-interest-bearing bonds at a time of rising bond yields. It was required to sell those at a loss, which exacerbated the liquidity problems that it had. Would it not be prudent now to ensure that our regulators have another look at UK banks to ensure that comparable low-interest-bearing assets are stringently priced and marked to market to ensure that tier 1 capital is just that, and of sufficient quantity and quality that any liquidity problem does not morph into an insolvency and system risk problem?

[Andrew Griffith]

I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his recognition of the speed and decisiveness with which the whole Government have come together, worked together and acted to deliver this outcome—that is kind of him and it is appreciated. If I may, we should not conflate some of what we read about the balance sheet in the US with the regulated balance sheet in the UK, which was a separately regulated balance sheet. Again, on the business model in the UK and the backing, and the bonds and collateral that were being held, I am not aware that their forced sale, and the losses on it, were a contributory factor. The reality is that we saw a withdrawal of deposits. The Bank had the ability, because of the relatively ringfenced balance sheet, to protect the bank and take the necessary action. Had the Bank not done so, we could have been in a very different situation, so we were right to act as we did.

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 7th February 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I have a constituent with a number of shops. He has seen his four-weekly energy costs rise from £12,000 last October to £27,000 today. Moving on to lower tariffs, but with the reduced energy support, he will still see that £12,000 every four weeks doubled, to £24,000. What advice would the Minister give to my constituent? How would he find the £140,000 off the bottom line in a business already operating on tight margins?

IMF Economic Outlook

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 31st January 2023 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

I call the SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I suppose that it is apposite that there is an urgent question on a potential recession on the third anniversary of Brexit.

The IMF has said that the economy of the UK—the only G7 country facing recession—would face a downgrade reflecting, it says, tighter fiscal and monetary policies and the still high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets. There is no getting away from it: with even sanctioned Russia forecast to grow, that is a gloomy prognosis. Given that the Government expect to meet their own new fiscal rule on public sector net debt by a paltry £9 billion in 2027-28, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Government’s own strictures mean that there is no fiscal headroom to provide more support. Is this not the time, therefore, to reduce the energy companies’ investment allowance, which allows them to reduce the tax that they pay by 91p in the pound, to start to generate a meaningful windfall tax that is required to further support households and small and medium-sized enterprises—two of the main drivers of the IMF forecast for the economy—which will otherwise see their energy costs rocket this year?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 20th December 2022 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

We now come to the SNP spokesperson.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Subsequent to the changes to the insurance market to protect people from the loyalty payment, the Chancellor announced his Edinburgh reforms to wider financial services regulation and a great many consultations. At a quick glance, many of them closed very quickly—on 5 February, 17 February, 3 March, 5 March and 17 March. Given that the Treasury Select Committee warned over a decade ago that the Government

“needs to take the time required to get its reform of financial regulation right”,

how can we be convinced that the rather painful lessons of the financial crash have not been forgotten?

Ministerial Code

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Monday 26th April 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

We now come to the SNP spokesperson, Mr Stewart Hosie.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank my hon. Friend the Member for Glasgow Central (Alison Thewliss) for securing this important urgent question. We have had PPE contracts awarded to donors and cronies without a robust tender process, NHS contracts awarded to a firm partly owned by the Health Secretary, privileged secret communications between an ex-Prime Minister and the Chancellor, and between James Dyson and the current Prime Minister—and I could add a Tory fondness for oligarchs—and the allegation of Tory donors funding the Prime Minister’s home improvements. There is no point in the Minister’s sitting there, part bombast and part Teflon Don, hoping that the stench of cronyism will simply pass. It is far too late for that. When did this Government judge that integrity, probity, transparency and the ministerial code were obstacles to be overcome rather than principles to always be adhered to?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Thursday 25th March 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Let us go to Chris Law. That is not Chris Law. I do not care what anybody says, that is definitely not Chris Law—in which case, I am going to go to spokesperson Stewart Hosie.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

In relation to these native adverts regarding the so-called benefits of Brexit, the Advertising Standards Authority says that

“Marketing communications must be obviously identifiable as such”

and that marketers—in this case, the UK Government—

“must make clear that advertorials are marketing communications”.

Some newspapers do say “Ad features sponsored by the UK Government.” Others say, “in conjunction” or “in association”, which is less clear. Many simply say “sponsored” but not who by, and at least one newspaper describes the UK Government—the marketer—as a “contributor”. Why have the Government, as the marketer, chosen to flout the ASA code in this way?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Thursday 14th January 2021 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Let us head to Scotland to Scottish National party spokesperson Stewart Hosie with the first of two questions.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP) [V]]

The Secretary of State was copied in to a letter to the Business Secretary from Vicky Leigh-Pearson, the sales director at John Ross Jr, Aberdeen, salmon producers and exporters. It described in excoriating detail the “barrage of useless information” on Brexit, which added no value or clarity for such food and drink exporting businesses. Would it not be better to fix the problems at the UK-EU border, where real exports take place, rather than make vague promises about future promotional campaigns?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Thursday 18th June 2020 Commons Chamber

[Mr Speaker]

Chris Loder, who had the next Question, is not here, but I will still take the SNP supplementary questions—I call Stewart Hosie.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Thank you, Mr Speaker. Scottish Land and Estates has said that food and farming is critical, and it is concerned that UK producers are not placed in an impossible situation where they have to compete in an effective “race to the bottom”. What guarantees can the Secretary of State give that cheaply produced agrifood imports will not lead to that race to the bottom?

Oral Answers to Questions

Debate between Lindsay Hoyle and Stewart Hosie

Tuesday 12th May 2020 Commons Chamber

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP) [V]]

Around a third of the value added of UK trade comes from indirect trade—indirect links—where goods and services are first exported to one country and subsequently exported to the UK. Given the importance of indirect trade and value chains generally, I am sure the Secretary of State would agree with the Dutch Trade Minister that we should rethink our trade deals to take a closer look at the sustainability of those value chains. Will she go further and agree that we should not just be looking at sustainability, but that trade deals should be as inclusive as possible and based on World Trade Organisation rules, and because of the importance of value chains and indirect trade—

[Mr Speaker]

Order. I think the Secretary of State will have got the question.