2024 General Election

Labour forecast to win a majority of 226

Breakdown of Election Forecast

(648 predicted)

Party	Forecast	Change	Gains	Losses
Labour Lab	438	+232	239	2
Conservative Con	107	-238	1	264
Liberal Democrat LD	60	+45	51
Scottish National Party SNP	19	-24	1	30
Sinn Féin SF	7
Democratic Unionist Party DUP	6	-1		2
Plaid Cymru PC	3		1
Social Democratic & Labour Party SDLP	2
Independent Ind	2	-13
Green Party Green	2	+1	1
Ulster Unionist Party UUP	1		1
Reform UK RUK	1		1
Alliance APNI	1		1	1
Speaker Spk	1
Alba Party Alba	0	-2
Workers Party of Britain WPB	0	-1

299 Seats expected to change hands

(Change map to show all seats)

Note: 2023 Boundary changes mean that changes in total seat number do not correspond directly to gains and losses
Changes in seat number are calculated versus the previous Parliament.
Gains and Losses are calculated against the new boundaries and the implied results for those boundaries at the previous election.
For example, the previously single Conservative Isle of Wight constituency has been split into two. Another party winning both Isle of Wight seats is calculated as a gain of two seats not one.

10 Cabinet Ministers forecast to lose seats

Constituency		Favourite to Win
Portsmouth North (Previous 15,780 majority)	Penny Mordaunt Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons	Labour (69.2%)
Godalming and Ash (Previous 9,567 majority)	Jeremy Hunt Chancellor of the Exchequer	Liberal Democrat (71.4%)
Central Devon (Previous 17,724 majority)	Mel Stride Secretary of State for Work and Pensions	Labour (66.7%)
Banbury (Previous 18,382 majority)	Victoria Prentis Attorney General	Labour (77.8%)
Chichester (Previous 22,351 majority)	Gillian Keegan Secretary of State for Education	Liberal Democrat (47.6%)
Forest of Dean (Previous 15,869 majority)	Mark Harper Secretary of State for Transport	Labour (69.2%)
Monmouthshire (Previous 7,721 majority)	David T C Davies Secretary of State for Wales	Labour (81.8%)
Ely and East Cambridgeshire (Previous 14,882 majority)	Lucy Frazer Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport	Liberal Democrat (52.6%)
Cheltenham (Previous 981 majority)	Alex Chalk Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice	Liberal Democrat (87.5%)
Welwyn Hatfield (Previous 10,955 majority)	Grant Shapps Secretary of State for Defence	Labour (83.3%)

Show 39 Junior Ministers forecast to lose seats

Sherwood Forest (Previous 16,532 majority)	Mark Spencer Minister of State (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)	Labour (81.8%)
Wycombe (Previous 4,312 majority)	Steve Baker Minister of State (Northern Ireland Office)	Labour (87.5%)
Derby North (Previous 2,540 majority)	Amanda Solloway Government Whip, Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury	Labour (90.9%)
Caerfyrddin (Previous 5,111 majority)	Simon Hart Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Chief Whip)	Plaid Cymru (73.3%)
Plymouth Moor View (Previous 11,973 majority)	Johnny Mercer Minister of State (Cabinet Office) (Minister for Veterans' Affairs)	Labour (84.6%)
Croydon South (Previous 10,905 majority)	Chris Philp Minister of State (Home Office)	Labour (71.4%)
North Northumberland (Previous 11,464 majority)	Anne-Marie Trevelyan Minister of State (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office)	Labour (75.0%)
Nuneaton (Previous 13,144 majority)	Marcus Jones Treasurer of HM Household (Deputy Chief Whip, House of Commons)	Labour (77.8%)
Melton and Syston (Previous 23,521 majority)	Edward Argar Minister of State (Ministry of Justice)	Labour (55.6%)
North Cornwall (Previous 15,410 majority)	Scott Mann Government Whip, Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury	Liberal Democrat (66.7%)
High Peak (Previous 590 majority)	Robert Largan Assistant Whip	Labour (93.3%)
Taunton and Wellington (Previous 11,700 majority)	Rebecca Pow Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)	Liberal Democrat (80.0%)
Macclesfield (Previous 10,711 majority)	David Rutley Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office)	Labour (85.7%)
Kensington and Bayswater (Previous 1,111 majority)	Felicity Buchan Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities)	Labour (92.3%)
Lewes (Previous 4,653 majority)	Maria Caulfield Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Business and Trade) (Minister for Women)	Liberal Democrat (80.0%)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (Previous 843 majority)	Andrew Bowie Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero)	Scottish National Party (55.6%)
Didcot and Wantage (Previous 12,692 majority)	David Johnston Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Education)	Liberal Democrat (69.2%)
Redcar (Previous 4,037 majority)	Jacob Young Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities)	Labour (83.3%)
Chelsea and Fulham (Previous 7,163 majority)	Greg Hands Minister of State (Department for Business and Trade)	Labour (77.8%)
Hitchin (Previous 17,335 majority)	Bim Afolami Economic Secretary (HM Treasury)	Labour (81.8%)
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire (Previous 12,883 majority)	Anthony Browne Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Transport)	Liberal Democrat (65.2%)
Angus and Perthshire Glens (Previous 5,840 majority)	Richard Holden Minister without Portfolio (Cabinet Office)	Scottish National Party (73.3%)
Hexham (Previous 8,636 majority)	Guy Opperman Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Transport)	Labour (81.8%)
Penrith and Solway (Previous 10,160 majority)	Mark Jenkinson Assistant Whip	Labour (83.3%)
Cannock Chase (Previous 19,879 majority)	Amanda Milling Government Whip, Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury	Labour (61.9%)
Bolsover (Previous 5,332 majority)	Mark Fletcher Assistant Whip	Labour (96.2%)
Stourbridge (Previous 14,213 majority)	Suzanne Webb Assistant Whip	Labour (81.8%)
Blackpool North and Fleetwood (Previous 6,800 majority)	Paul Maynard Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Work and Pensions)	Labour (90.9%)
Newbury (Previous 16,047 majority)	Laura Farris Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Ministry of Justice) (jointly with Home Office)	Liberal Democrat (61.9%)
Keighley and Ilkley (Previous 2,218 majority)	Robbie Moore Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)	Labour (88.9%)
Pendle and Clitheroe (Previous 9,335 majority)	Andrew Stephenson Minister of State (Department of Health and Social Care)	Labour (83.3%)
North East Derbyshire (Previous 12,854 majority)	Lee Rowley Minister of State (Minister for Housing)	Labour (90.0%)
Tatton (Previous 15,208 majority)	Esther McVey Minister without Portfolio (Cabinet Office)	Labour (63.6%)
Mid Dorset and North Poole (Previous 15,809 majority)	Michael Tomlinson Minister of State (Minister for Illegal Migration)	Liberal Democrat (50.0%)
Corby and East Northamptonshire (Previous 10,268 majority)	Tom Pursglove Minister of State (Minister for Legal Migration and Delivery)	Labour (85.7%)
Hornchurch and Upminster (Previous 23,308 majority)	Julia Lopez Minister of State (Department for Science, Innovation and Technology)	Labour (55.6%)
Thornbury and Yate (Previous 13,114 majority)	Luke Hall Minister of State (Education)	Liberal Democrat (71.4%)
Aldershot (Previous 17,371 majority)	Leo Docherty Minister of State (Ministry of Defence) (Minister for the Armed Forces)	Labour (71.4%)
Swindon North (Previous 16,171 majority)	Justin Tomlinson Minister of State (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero)	Labour (80.0%)

Changes in Forecast Winners

Time	Place	New Winner	Previous Winner	2019 Result
21 Jun 2024, 4:21 p.m.	Basildon and Billericay	Labour (38.1%) Lab (38.1%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (20,364 majority) Con (20,364 majority)
20 Jun 2024, 10:48 a.m.	Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch	Scottish National Party (52.4%) SNP (52.4%)	Labour Lab	Scottish National Party (11,928 majority) SNP (11,928 majority)
19 Jun 2024, 10:29 p.m.	Solihull West and Shirley	Labour (50.0%) Lab (50.0%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (21,536 majority) Con (21,536 majority)
19 Jun 2024, 9:11 p.m.	Newark	Labour (47.6%) Lab (47.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (21,245 majority) Con (21,245 majority)
19 Jun 2024, 7:03 p.m.	Mid Sussex	Liberal Democrat (38.1%) LD (38.1%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (18,958 majority) Con (18,958 majority)

Show Remaining Changes (37)

19 Jun 2024, 6:50 p.m.	Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey	Conservative (50.0%) Con (50.0%)	Scottish National Party SNP	Scottish National Party (2,810 majority) SNP (2,810 majority)
18 Jun 2024, 5:18 p.m.	Mid Dorset and North Poole	Liberal Democrat (50.0%) LD (50.0%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (15,809 majority) Con (15,809 majority)
18 Jun 2024, 3:56 p.m.	Frome and East Somerset	Liberal Democrat (54.6%) LD (54.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (17,396 majority) Con (17,396 majority)
18 Jun 2024, 1:18 p.m.	St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire	Liberal Democrat (65.2%) LD (65.2%)	Labour Lab	Conservative (12,883 majority) Con (12,883 majority)
18 Jun 2024, 11:53 a.m.	Honiton and Sidmouth	Liberal Democrat (65.6%) LD (65.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (25,889 majority) Con (25,889 majority)
18 Jun 2024, 11:05 a.m.	Fylde	Labour (54.6%) Lab (54.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (16,637 majority) Con (16,637 majority)
17 Jun 2024, 3:15 p.m.	Newton Abbot	Labour (42.1%) Lab (42.1%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (17,501 majority) Con (17,501 majority)
17 Jun 2024, 10:14 a.m.	Bicester and Woodstock	Liberal Democrat (55.6%) LD (55.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (16,000 majority) Con (16,000 majority)
15 Jun 2024, 12:02 p.m.	The Wrekin	Labour (55.6%) Lab (55.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (19,085 majority) Con (19,085 majority)
13 Jun 2024, 10:01 p.m.	Ynys Môn	Labour (61.9%) Lab (61.9%)	Plaid Cymru PC	Conservative (1,968 majority) Con (1,968 majority)
13 Jun 2024, 9:45 p.m.	Harpenden and Berkhamsted	Liberal Democrat (60.0%) LD (60.0%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (15,163 majority) Con (15,163 majority)
12 Jun 2024, 1:26 p.m.	Hornchurch and Upminster	Labour (55.6%) Lab (55.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (23,308 majority) Con (23,308 majority)
12 Jun 2024, 11:52 a.m.	North Down	Independent (50.0%) Ind (50.0%)	Alliance APNI	Alliance (2,736 majority) APNI (2,736 majority)
11 Jun 2024, 5:51 p.m.	West Suffolk	Labour (61.9%) Lab (61.9%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (23,214 majority) Con (23,214 majority)
11 Jun 2024, 12:27 p.m.	Henley and Thame	Liberal Democrat (61.9%) LD (61.9%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (14,053 majority) Con (14,053 majority)
11 Jun 2024, 11:53 a.m.	Salisbury	Conservative (52.4%) Con (52.4%)	Labour Lab	Conservative (20,331 majority) Con (20,331 majority)
10 Jun 2024, 2:26 p.m.	Chichester	Liberal Democrat (47.6%) LD (47.6%)	Labour Lab	Conservative (22,351 majority) Con (22,351 majority)
9 Jun 2024, 10:22 p.m.	North Warwickshire and Bedworth	Labour (57.9%) Lab (57.9%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (17,956 majority) Con (17,956 majority)
9 Jun 2024, 9:48 p.m.	Chester South and Eddisbury	Labour (55.6%) Lab (55.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (9,435 majority) Con (9,435 majority)
9 Jun 2024, 12:55 p.m.	Sutton and Cheam	Liberal Democrat (63.6%) LD (63.6%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (8,351 majority) Con (8,351 majority)
7 Jun 2024, 4:50 p.m.	Maidstone and Malling	Labour (60.0%) Lab (60.0%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (22,633 majority) Con (22,633 majority)
5 Jun 2024, 2:48 p.m.	Didcot and Wantage	Liberal Democrat (69.2%) LD (69.2%)	Labour Lab	Conservative (12,692 majority) Con (12,692 majority)
5 Jun 2024, 2:40 p.m.	Redditch	Labour (73.3%) Lab (73.3%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (16,733 majority) Con (16,733 majority)
5 Jun 2024, 1:38 a.m.	Belfast East	Alliance (54.6%) APNI (54.6%)	Democratic Unionist Party DUP	Democratic Unionist Party (2,138 majority) DUP (2,138 majority)
4 Jun 2024, 6:28 p.m.	Mid Leicestershire	Labour (52.4%) Lab (52.4%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (23,191 majority) Con (23,191 majority)
4 Jun 2024, 5:25 p.m.	Godalming and Ash	Liberal Democrat (71.4%) LD (71.4%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (9,567 majority) Con (9,567 majority)
4 Jun 2024, 10:52 a.m.	Romsey and Southampton North	Liberal Democrat (60.0%) LD (60.0%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (12,892 majority) Con (12,892 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 11:42 p.m.	Woking	Liberal Democrat (77.8%) LD (77.8%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (9,767 majority) Con (9,767 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 8:02 p.m.	Dundee Central	Scottish National Party (61.9%) SNP (61.9%)	Labour Lab	Scottish National Party (13,451 majority) SNP (13,451 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 5:38 p.m.	Tamworth	Labour (66.7%) Lab (66.7%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (19,749 majority) Con (19,749 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 5:08 p.m.	Portsmouth North	Labour (69.2%) Lab (69.2%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (15,780 majority) Con (15,780 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 4:33 p.m.	Clacton	Reform UK (83.3%) RUK (83.3%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (24,369 majority) Con (24,369 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 1:40 p.m.	Harwich and North Essex	Labour (62.5%) Lab (62.5%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (19,055 majority) Con (19,055 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 12:35 p.m.	Mid Derbyshire	Labour (80.0%) Lab (80.0%)	Liberal Democrat LD	Conservative (15,477 majority) Con (15,477 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 7:43 a.m.	Chesham and Amersham	Liberal Democrat (77.8%) LD (77.8%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (17,818 majority) Con (17,818 majority)
2 Jun 2024, 9:19 a.m.	Wolverhampton West	Labour (87.5%) Lab (87.5%)	Conservative Con	Conservative (1,604 majority) Con (1,604 majority)
30 May 2024, 4:15 p.m.	South Antrim	Ulster Unionist Party (52.4%) UUP (52.4%)	Democratic Unionist Party DUP	Democratic Unionist Party (3,030 majority) DUP (3,030 majority)