2024 General Election

Disclaimer: The data on this page is for information purposes only. This information was produced without the involvement or agreement of any gaming provider, and uses publicly advertised betting odds to calculate and track individual constituency expectations for the 2024 General Election.

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Labour forecast to win a majority of 218


289 Seats expected to change hands
(Change map to show all seats)
Note: 2023 Boundary changes mean that changes in total seat number do not correspond directly to gains and losses
Changes in seat number are calculated versus the previous Parliament.
Gains and Losses are calculated against the new boundaries and the implied results for those boundaries at the previous election.
For example, the previously single Conservative Isle of Wight constituency has been split into two. Another party winning both Isle of Wight seats is calculated as a gain of two seats not one.

9 Cabinet Ministers forecast to lose seats

Constituency Minister Favourite to Win
Portsmouth North
(Previous 15,780 majority)
Penny Mordaunt Portrait
Penny Mordaunt
Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons
Labour (65.2%)
Godalming and Ash
(Previous 9,567 majority)
Jeremy Hunt Portrait
Jeremy Hunt
Chancellor of the Exchequer
Liberal Democrat (66.7%)
Central Devon
(Previous 17,724 majority)
Mel Stride Portrait
Mel Stride
Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
Labour (69.2%)
Banbury
(Previous 18,382 majority)
Victoria Prentis Portrait
Victoria Prentis
Attorney General
Labour (76.9%)
Chichester
(Previous 22,351 majority)
Gillian Keegan Portrait
Gillian Keegan
Secretary of State for Education
Liberal Democrat (40.0%)
Forest of Dean
(Previous 15,869 majority)
Mark Harper Portrait
Mark Harper
Secretary of State for Transport
Labour (66.7%)
Ely and East Cambridgeshire
(Previous 14,882 majority)
Lucy Frazer Portrait
Lucy Frazer
Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport
Liberal Democrat (47.6%)
Cheltenham
(Previous 981 majority)
Alex Chalk Portrait
Alex Chalk
Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice
Liberal Democrat (87.5%)
Welwyn Hatfield
(Previous 10,955 majority)
Grant Shapps Portrait
Grant Shapps
Secretary of State for Defence
Labour (88.9%)
Sherwood Forest
(Previous 16,532 majority)
Mark Spencer Portrait
Mark Spencer
Minister of State (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)
Labour (80.0%)
Wycombe
(Previous 4,312 majority)
Steve Baker Portrait
Steve Baker
Minister of State (Northern Ireland Office)
Labour (80.0%)
Derby North
(Previous 2,540 majority)
Amanda Solloway Portrait
Amanda Solloway
Government Whip, Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury
Labour (90.9%)
Caerfyrddin
(Previous 5,111 majority)
Simon Hart Portrait
Simon Hart
Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury (Chief Whip)
Plaid Cymru (73.3%)
Plymouth Moor View
(Previous 11,973 majority)
Johnny Mercer Portrait
Johnny Mercer
Minister of State (Cabinet Office) (Minister for Veterans' Affairs)
Labour (83.3%)
Croydon South
(Previous 10,905 majority)
Chris Philp Portrait
Chris Philp
Minister of State (Home Office)
Labour (71.4%)
North Northumberland
(Previous 11,464 majority)
Anne-Marie Trevelyan Portrait
Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Minister of State (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office)
Labour (77.8%)
Nuneaton
(Previous 13,144 majority)
Marcus Jones Portrait
Marcus Jones
Treasurer of HM Household (Deputy Chief Whip, House of Commons)
Labour (77.8%)
Melton and Syston
(Previous 23,521 majority)
Edward Argar Portrait
Edward Argar
Minister of State (Ministry of Justice)
Labour (55.6%)
North Cornwall
(Previous 15,410 majority)
Scott Mann Portrait
Scott Mann
Government Whip, Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury
Liberal Democrat (61.9%)
High Peak
(Previous 590 majority)
Robert Largan Portrait
Robert Largan
Assistant Whip
Labour (93.3%)
Taunton and Wellington
(Previous 11,700 majority)
Rebecca Pow Portrait
Rebecca Pow
Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)
Liberal Democrat (80.0%)
Macclesfield
(Previous 10,711 majority)
David Rutley Portrait
David Rutley
Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office)
Labour (85.7%)
Kensington and Bayswater
(Previous 1,111 majority)
Felicity Buchan Portrait
Felicity Buchan
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities)
Labour (92.3%)
Lewes
(Previous 4,653 majority)
Maria Caulfield Portrait
Maria Caulfield
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Business and Trade) (Minister for Women)
Liberal Democrat (80.0%)
Redcar
(Previous 4,037 majority)
Jacob Young Portrait
Jacob Young
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities)
Labour (85.7%)
Chelsea and Fulham
(Previous 7,163 majority)
Greg Hands Portrait
Greg Hands
Minister of State (Department for Business and Trade)
Labour (75.0%)
Hitchin
(Previous 17,335 majority)
Bim Afolami Portrait
Bim Afolami
Economic Secretary (HM Treasury)
Labour (80.0%)
St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
(Previous 12,883 majority)
Anthony Browne Portrait
Anthony Browne
Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Transport)
Labour (44.4%)
Hexham
(Previous 8,636 majority)
Guy Opperman Portrait
Guy Opperman
Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Transport)
Labour (80.0%)
Penrith and Solway
(Previous 10,160 majority)
Mark Jenkinson Portrait
Mark Jenkinson
Assistant Whip
Labour (83.3%)
Cannock Chase
(Previous 19,879 majority)
Amanda Milling Portrait
Amanda Milling
Government Whip, Lord Commissioner of HM Treasury
Labour (61.9%)
Bolsover
(Previous 5,332 majority)
Mark Fletcher Portrait
Mark Fletcher
Assistant Whip
Labour (96.2%)
Stourbridge
(Previous 14,213 majority)
Suzanne Webb Portrait
Suzanne Webb
Assistant Whip
Labour (81.8%)
Blackpool North and Fleetwood
(Previous 6,800 majority)
Paul Maynard Portrait
Paul Maynard
Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Work and Pensions)
Labour (90.9%)
Newbury
(Previous 16,047 majority)
Laura Farris Portrait
Laura Farris
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Ministry of Justice) (jointly with Home Office)
Liberal Democrat (60.0%)
Keighley and Ilkley
(Previous 2,218 majority)
Robbie Moore Portrait
Robbie Moore
Parliamentary Under-Secretary (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs)
Labour (88.9%)
Pendle and Clitheroe
(Previous 9,335 majority)
Andrew Stephenson Portrait
Andrew Stephenson
Minister of State (Department of Health and Social Care)
Labour (83.3%)
North East Derbyshire
(Previous 12,854 majority)
Lee Rowley Portrait
Lee Rowley
Minister of State (Minister for Housing)
Labour (90.0%)
Tatton
(Previous 15,208 majority)
Esther McVey Portrait
Esther McVey
Minister without Portfolio (Cabinet Office)
Labour (63.6%)
Corby and East Northamptonshire
(Previous 10,268 majority)
Tom Pursglove Portrait
Tom Pursglove
Minister of State (Minister for Legal Migration and Delivery)
Labour (87.5%)
Hornchurch and Upminster
(Previous 23,308 majority)
Julia Lopez Portrait
Julia Lopez
Minister of State (Department for Science, Innovation and Technology)
Labour (55.6%)
Thornbury and Yate
(Previous 13,114 majority)
Luke Hall Portrait
Luke Hall
Minister of State (Education)
Liberal Democrat (71.4%)
Aldershot
(Previous 17,371 majority)
Leo Docherty Portrait
Leo Docherty
Minister of State (Ministry of Defence) (Minister for the Armed Forces)
Labour (69.2%)
Swindon North
(Previous 16,171 majority)
Justin Tomlinson Portrait
Justin Tomlinson
Minister of State (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero)
Labour (81.8%)

Changes in Forecast Winners

Time Place New Winner Previous Winner 2019 Result
14 Jun 2024, 11:23 a.m. Newton Abbot
Lab
Conservative
(17,501 majority)
Con
(17,501 majority)
14 Jun 2024, 10:16 a.m. Fylde
Lab
Conservative
(16,637 majority)
Con
(16,637 majority)
13 Jun 2024, 10:01 p.m. Ynys Môn
PC
Conservative
(1,968 majority)
Con
(1,968 majority)
13 Jun 2024, 9:45 p.m. Harpenden and Berkhamsted
Con
Conservative
(15,163 majority)
Con
(15,163 majority)
12 Jun 2024, 1:26 p.m. Hornchurch and Upminster
Con
Conservative
(23,308 majority)
Con
(23,308 majority)
12 Jun 2024, 11:52 a.m. North Down
Alliance
(2,736 majority)
APNI
(2,736 majority)
11 Jun 2024, 5:51 p.m. West Suffolk
Con
Conservative
(23,214 majority)
Con
(23,214 majority)
11 Jun 2024, 12:27 p.m. Henley and Thame
Con
Conservative
(14,053 majority)
Con
(14,053 majority)
11 Jun 2024, 11:53 a.m. Salisbury
Lab
Conservative
(20,331 majority)
Con
(20,331 majority)
10 Jun 2024, 2:26 p.m. Chichester
Lab
Conservative
(22,351 majority)
Con
(22,351 majority)
9 Jun 2024, 10:22 p.m. North Warwickshire and Bedworth
Con
Conservative
(17,956 majority)
Con
(17,956 majority)
9 Jun 2024, 9:48 p.m. Chester South and Eddisbury
Con
Conservative
(9,435 majority)
Con
(9,435 majority)
9 Jun 2024, 12:55 p.m. Sutton and Cheam
Con
Conservative
(8,351 majority)
Con
(8,351 majority)
8 Jun 2024, 10:07 a.m. Mid Dorset and North Poole
LD
Conservative
(15,809 majority)
Con
(15,809 majority)
7 Jun 2024, 4:50 p.m. Maidstone and Malling
Con
Conservative
(22,633 majority)
Con
(22,633 majority)
5 Jun 2024, 2:48 p.m. Didcot and Wantage
Lab
Conservative
(12,692 majority)
Con
(12,692 majority)
5 Jun 2024, 2:40 p.m. Redditch
Con
Conservative
(16,733 majority)
Con
(16,733 majority)
5 Jun 2024, 1:38 a.m. Belfast East
DUP
Democratic Unionist Party
(2,138 majority)
DUP
(2,138 majority)
4 Jun 2024, 6:28 p.m. Mid Leicestershire
Con
Conservative
(23,191 majority)
Con
(23,191 majority)
4 Jun 2024, 5:25 p.m. Godalming and Ash
Con
Conservative
(9,567 majority)
Con
(9,567 majority)
4 Jun 2024, 10:52 a.m. Romsey and Southampton North
Con
Conservative
(12,892 majority)
Con
(12,892 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 11:42 p.m. Woking
Con
Conservative
(9,767 majority)
Con
(9,767 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 8:02 p.m. Dundee Central
Lab
Scottish National Party
(13,451 majority)
SNP
(13,451 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 5:38 p.m. Tamworth
Con
Conservative
(19,749 majority)
Con
(19,749 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 5:08 p.m. Portsmouth North
Con
Conservative
(15,780 majority)
Con
(15,780 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 4:33 p.m. Clacton
Con
Conservative
(24,369 majority)
Con
(24,369 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 1:40 p.m. Harwich and North Essex
Con
Conservative
(19,055 majority)
Con
(19,055 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 12:35 p.m. Mid Derbyshire
LD
Conservative
(15,477 majority)
Con
(15,477 majority)
3 Jun 2024, 7:43 a.m. Chesham and Amersham
Con
Conservative
(17,818 majority)
Con
(17,818 majority)
2 Jun 2024, 9:19 a.m. Wolverhampton West
Con
Conservative
(1,604 majority)
Con
(1,604 majority)
30 May 2024, 4:15 p.m. South Antrim
DUP
Democratic Unionist Party
(3,030 majority)
DUP
(3,030 majority)

Changes in Seats over time