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Dr Rupa Huq (in the Chair)
Order. I will call Natasha Irons to move the motion and then I will call the Minister to respond. Other Members can make a speech with prior permission from the mover of the motion, which I think on this occasion has already been secured. As this is one of those 30-minute wonders, there is no time for a winding-up speech at the end.
Natasha Irons (Croydon East) (Lab)
I beg to move,
That this House has considered Government support for the Croydon Area Remodelling Scheme.
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Dr Huq.
As the Minister will know, this is the second time that I have secured a debate on this topic; it is great to be reunited with him today. It is really important to return to the subject, because the Croydon area modelling scheme is not just about driving billions in economic growth across the east and south-east, or capitalising on key infrastructure projects such as the expansion of Gatwick and Luton airports, or the opening of the Universal Studios theme park, but about something far greater. It is about getting a lift at Norwood Junction station.
The Croydon area modelling scheme, or CARS, is a Network Rail plan to add capacity and resilience to the most complex part of Britain’s rail network, and improve services not just on the Brighton main line but on the wider Thameslink growth corridor, which runs from Peterborough to Brighton.
The lack of capacity at East Croydon station and the complex series of junctions north of Croydon—the Selhurst triangle—means that trains across the Brighton main line and the wider Thameslink corridor, including those that run between Gatwick and Luton airports, have been vulnerable to delays and cancellations for many years. Thameslink and the Brighton main line are integral to economic growth in the east and south-east, and the demand for services will only increase.
Around 18% of national passenger journeys take place on the Govia Thameslink Railway network, and south of London it is already the most congested part of the rail network in the country. The Brighton main line is 5% of the southern region network, but delivers about 25% of its revenue, which helps to sustain and subsidise the wider rail system. About 1.7 million people live in areas served by the Brighton main line outside of London and more than 30,000 passengers a day already depend on this corridor.
Across the local authorities served by the Brighton main line, around 34,000 homes are required to be delivered every year, and on the Thameslink line Luton airport wants to nearly double passenger numbers to 32 million by 2043, while Gatwick is seeking to grow from around 40 million passengers today to as many as 80 million in the late 2030s. The new Universal Studios theme park in Bedfordshire, which is due to open in 2031, is expected to attract 8.5 million visitors a year and support 28,000 jobs.
That is a genuine growth and opportunity corridor, and it all flows through the bottleneck at East Croydon. East Croydon station already handles more trains in a day than all the inter-city operators from Euston, St Pancras and King’s Cross. It is a critical pinch point, where limited platforms, constrained tracks and complex junctions restrict the number of trains that can flow through it.
It is because Thameslink is such an interconnected system that delays here do not stay here. A problem at the Croydon bottleneck quickly spreads across the Brighton main line, through the Thameslink core and across the wider network. Around 67% of trains passing through East Croydon are late or cancelled. For the people who rely on that vital route every day, that means missed connections, unreliable journeys and longer commutes.
The issue is made even more pressing because every rail service between London and Gatwick passes through East Croydon. Gatwick’s northern runway expansion is a £2.2 billion project that is expected to support around 14,000 jobs and deliver an estimated boost of £1 billion a year to the economy. However, that could all be held back by poor rail infrastructure.
Gatwick plans include a commitment to have 54% of journeys to the airport made by public transport, so rail is not an optional extra; it is a fundamental element of Gatwick’s success. Without remodelling at East Croydon and in the wider Selhurst triangle, the Brighton main line is expected to reach 100% capacity by 2030. Addressing the bottleneck could unlock around £5.1 billion in economic value over the next 20 years, and provide the resilience and growth that this corridor needs to succeed.
Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)
I commend the hon. Lady for securing this debate. I spoke to her beforehand to give her my thoughts. I am here to support her and wish her well in the project. There is a good Minister here to help her and her constituents; I look forward to his response. Does the hon. Lady agree that although spending reviews are necessary, these infrastructure developments are essential for local areas? Much like in the case of the Ballynahinch bypass in my constituency, the perpetual long finger is detrimental to the local economy and business. There comes a time when the bottom line cannot be the only common denominator.
Natasha Irons
I completely agree. We have to look at economic investment and infrastructure in broad terms. The fact that local plans can unlock local growth corridors and be key to local areas should be included in the assessment of the validity of these projects.
Addressing the bottleneck could unlock around £5.1 billion in economic value over the next 20 years and provide resilience and growth for this vital corridor. The Croydon area remodelling scheme would expand East Croydon from six platforms to eight, redesign the track layout and remove the conflicting train movements that cause so many delays today. It could create capacity for an additional four to six trains an hour and, based on previous modelling, could deliver around 15% extra peak capacity.
The scheme would also support wider station improvements, drive economic growth and, most importantly, finally get us a lift at Norwood Junction station. Network Rail will not draw up plans for a lift just in case CARS happens at some point in the future, but the Department for Transport has not agreed to restart CARS, which leaves commuters at Norwood Junction stuck in an endless cycle of lift limbo. Further delays to getting CARS off the ground could hold back economic growth not only for the south-east, which is estimated to be the seventh largest regional economy in the country, but for some of this Government’s key infrastructure investments.
This Government have rightly stated their intention to grow every corner of this country, and that good public transport will no longer be confined to the boundaries of our city, so I urge the Minister to consider the wider impact that investment in CARS could have on our coastal communities and our towns and regions outside London. CARS is not just good for Croydon and south-east; it is good for the whole country.
Peter Lamb (Crawley) (Lab)
It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Dr Huq. This issue has been on my radar for a very long time. I used to be the leader of the local authority in Crawley, and we have been aware for many years that the capacity limitations that are coming on the line will be so severe that they will gum up the entire network—the whole north-south link through London—from the coast in Brighton all the way through to Peterborough and Cambridge. Ultimately, we can address that only by resolving the bottleneck in Croydon.
The Department for Transport has already commissioned scoping work and started the process of bringing CARS forward. A significant part of the land required to undertake the work has been purchased and is just sitting idle. Unfortunately, it was the victim of the great strategic vision of our previous Prime Minister, who cancelled HS2 and a number of other proposals. Since that point, it has been very hard for a Department to get things back on the agenda. The new Government have come in with a significant proposal for investing in infrastructure. People underestimate just how significant the Government’s proposals for infrastructure are. We are talking about £100 billion of additional infrastructure investment under this Government, which will transform a very large part of the country.
The risk we run into, however, is where that investment goes. There are different pressures acting on the DFT as a consequence. Some of it is about trying to regenerate regional economies in the north of England and other parts of the country. As someone who lives in south-east, it is to my benefit for other parts of the country to develop. The direction of travel of policy in this country for many decades has been, essentially, “We are going to move the entire population of the United Kingdom to the south-east, and that is where the only jobs will be.” That is not sustainable. The housing pressures are just not sustainable. We have to have regeneration elsewhere.
However, the risk with insufficient investment in the south-east is killing the goose that lays the golden egg. The south-east as a whole generates more economic activity than London. In combination with London, we are talking about a third of the UK’s economic activity. If we do not invest in the infrastructure that sustains that, we will run into very significant problems. The Gatwick airport expansion is supposed to come forward in my community. My community already has full employment, and it has a housing problem. With the capacity limitations expected on the line by 2030, my community will have a very significant transport problem—and I should add that those limitations will come into effect without Gatwick expansion.
Gatwick expansion will not necessarily bring any additional benefits to my community, but it brings benefits to the country. I can understand that, and I respect why the DFT is going in that direction, but if we are to see additional benefits to the country coming out of economic activity, that has to come with the necessary infrastructure not only to enable my community to avoid the negative consequences of the housing and transport pressure that will result if the scheme is not put into effect, but to enable the country to get the best possible rate of return on the investment. Ultimately, that is what those of us involved want.
A large number of business groups now support the scheme and are making the point that we are cutting off investment in the area. I was at a meeting last week with my hon. Friend the Member for Croydon East (Natasha Irons), the hon. Member for East Grinstead and Uckfield (Mims Davies) and a number of business and transport groups. One business group, which tries to bring inward investment to the United Kingdom, said that people refuse to move here when they have experience the railway capacity or the delays on the line getting to and from Gatwick. That is a real consequence of the UK’s inward investment strategy.
We need to ensure that we have the infrastructure to get the maximal benefits of the private investment that is coming in, and the south-east will deliver on that. This is the only profit-making line in the GTR network. The numbers coming through will quickly increase the rate of return for the Treasury, based on the investment. We are one of the very few areas where rail investment would do that, and subsidise other railway lines elsewhere. It will pay for itself in the long term, but we need the pump priming at the start. If we pump prime this part of the south-east with the relatively limited amount of capital we are talking about, it will deliver a much greater return to the Treasury and the UK, through the social and economic benefits of the resultant growth.
It is worth noting that passenger volumes are projected to increase by 50% by 2045, which is 15 years after we run out of capacity on the line. If CARS is not the solution to that, what is the DFT’s strategy for dealing with capacity limitations of that scale on the line? I am happy to lobby for something else if I am pointed in the right direction, but my understanding, from talking to transport people, is that this scheme is the only thing that is going to resolve that particular problem. There will be some temporary stops along the way, but they can be dealt with.
Despite the reduction in passenger volumes after covid, we are now essentially back to having the mid-week peak, so there is no time for delay. The works are urgently needed if we are going to move things forward. I appreciate that the Treasury needs to address a range of concerns, but this need is urgent now, and will ultimately deliver a much better offer for the United Kingdom in the long run. Please can we just get on with it?
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Transport (Simon Lightwood)
It is a pleasure as always to see you in the Chair, Dr Huq. I am grateful to my hon. Friend the Member for Croydon East (Natasha Irons) for securing this important debate, and I recognise her tireless advocacy on behalf of her constituents and rail passengers across the region. I also thank my hon. Friend the Member for Crawley (Peter Lamb) for his contribution. I commend the collaboration among local partners, councils, industry and residents in making the case for improvements on the Brighton main line.
The BML is a vital artery that connects the south-east with the heart of London, carrying millions of passengers every year. It is a lifeline for commuters, visitors and businesses, and provides a direct rail connection to Gatwick airport. East Croydon station, in the constituency of my hon. Friend the Member for Croydon East, serves as a major transport hub, linking services across Sussex, Surrey and the London Tramlink network. The line facilitates billions of pounds in economic activity every year, supporting the growth of businesses and helping communities to remain connected.
The line’s importance is reflected in the significant investment it has received in recent years. The £7 billion Thameslink programme transformed north-south travel through London, delivering faster, more frequent and more reliable journeys for passengers. It introduced a new fleet of class 700 trains on the Brighton main line, significantly increasing onboard capacity. Given the modern technology used in those trains, there have been improvements in service reliability right across the Brighton main line and the wider Thameslink network.
Major stations such as London Blackfriars and London Bridge were completely rebuilt as part of the programme, and a vital interchange with the Elizabeth line was created at Farringdon. Through the major hub of East Croydon station, the Thameslink programme established new direct connections to destinations such as Peterborough and Cambridge.
More than £250 million was recently invested in upgrading Gatwick Airport station, delivering a more accessible concourse, doubling the space for passengers and improving the reliability of trains calling at the station. For too many years, Gatwick Airport station had impacted services along the Brighton main line due to the extended time that passengers needed to board and alight trains. Following platform widening and track remodelling, passengers can now board more quickly, which reduces delays and cuts journey times between Brighton and London by up to five minutes, and improves performance and reliability overall. It has also reduced knock-on delays further up and down the line. I hope my hon. Friend and her constituents have started to see the direct benefits of those interventions at Gatwick, be it in the efficiency of the train service or the ease with which they can start their holiday journeys.
Before the pandemic, the Croydon area remodelling scheme was rightly identified as a way to address overcrowding, increase capacity and improve the reliability of the Brighton main line. As my hon. Friend outlined, the complex junction at Selhurst—often referred to as the Croydon bottleneck—alongside the challenging operation of East Croydon and Norwood Junction stations, places significant constraints on the capacity and smooth operation of the network.
CARS was developed to address those challenges through extensive remodelling of the tracks and rail junctions north of East Croydon station. The programme also included plans for the redevelopment of East Croydon and Norwood Junction stations. At the time, Network Rail estimated that the scheme would take more than 10 years to deliver and would cost about £2.9 billion. Delivery would also require substantial disruption for passengers travelling along the Brighton main line.
As we know, the covid-19 pandemic changed travel patterns, created uncertainty about future demand and placed considerable pressures on public finances. In response, the previous Government took the decision to cancel the scheme at the 2021 spending review, although regrettably that decision was never actually formally communicated to stakeholders. No further development work has taken place on CARS since then.
On 8 July 2025, the Secretary of State updated Parliament on rail infrastructure scheme progress following the 2025 spending review. As my hon. Friend is aware, CARS was not allocated funding. The Government are committed to delivering infrastructure that offers the greatest benefit to passengers and the wider economy as quickly as possible and within a fully funded, deliverable programme. Given limited funding for rail enhancement projects and the significant recent investment already made on the line, including through Thameslink and Gatwick, the difficult decision was taken not to prioritise CARS at this stage.
I recognise that, despite those investments, my hon. Friend and other Members who represent constituencies along the Brighton main line will continue to make the case for investment. The next spending review, due in 2027, will be an important opportunity to make the case for future investment. The Government look forward to working with my hon. Friend and other BML stakeholders in developing that case.
I again thank my hon. Friend for securing the debate and for her commitment to championing improvements for rail passengers across her constituency and the wider region. I understand the disappointment that she and other stakeholders expressed following the outcome of the spending review last year. Although difficult decisions have been necessary, the Government recognise the long-term benefits of the Croydon area remodelling scheme. We will continue to work constructively with industry partners, local authorities and stakeholders as we consider future opportunities to improve capacity and performance on this vital route.
The case that my hon. Friend has set out today and on many previous occasions will remain an important part of the discussions as we look to the future. I am sure the Rail Minister looks forward to continuing that engagement and ensuring that the Brighton main line remains a reliable, high-performing railway that supports passengers, communities and economic growth for years to come.
Question put and agreed to.