Monday 10th July 2023
(1 year, 5 months ago)
Commons ChamberNorthern Ireland Budget (No. 2) Act 2023 View all Northern Ireland Budget (No. 2) Act 2023 Debates Read Hansard Text Watch Debate
The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (Chris Heaton-Harris)
I beg to move, That the Bill be now read a Second time.
In doing so, I once again speak with a strong sense of disappointment. At multiple junctures since becoming Secretary of State last year, I have stood at this Dispatch Box when realistically I should not have been doing so. That sentiment very much applies today, because I believe these decisions should be taken by locally elected politicians.
The Government have brought forward this Bill because the Northern Ireland parties have been unable to form an Executive and subsequently set a budget for this financial year. The Government have therefore been compelled to step in again and set another budget. I set out the headline departmental budget allocations via a written ministerial statement to Parliament on 27 April this year, and this Bill puts those allocations on a statutory footing. We have also published more detailed information in respect of each of the Northern Ireland Departments’ spending plans through the main estimates, which I laid as a Command Paper on 3 July.
Today’s debate is only the Second Reading of this legislation, with the remaining stages due to take place after the summer recess. The summer therefore presents an opportunity for the Northern Ireland parties to come together as a restored Executive and take their own budget legislation through the Assembly, making the remaining stages of the Bill in this place superfluous.
It is no secret that the pressures on Northern Ireland’s public finances are acute. As with the 2022-23 budget, setting this budget was not an easy task, but it was necessary to deliver a balanced budget and provide the Northern Ireland Departments with budget clarity to help get their spending under control. As far as possible, we have aimed to protect frontline public services. In recognition of the pressure on the health service, over half of the total budget is to be spent on health.
Of course, these pressures on Northern Ireland’s finances did not appear overnight. Successive former Executives have failed to make the strategic decisions required to put the public finances on a sustainable footing and make public services affordable. The unsustainability of Northern Ireland’s finances cannot continue. It is fundamentally the responsibility of the Northern Ireland Executive to run a balanced budget, and until they do, the outcomes for citizens will not improve. That is why the Government stand ready to work with a restored Executive on budget sustainability, including the implementation of revenue-raising measures.
Jim Shannon (Strangford) (DUP)
Very quickly, in relation to the budget, my hon. Friend the Member for Belfast East (Gavin Robinson) has always referred to the time for the Barnett consequentials to be looked at, and the population of Northern Ireland is up some 200,000 in 10 years, and 100,000 in five years. Does the Secretary of State not agree that it is time to look at the whole budget for Northern Ireland because of the extra population increase and the diverse community we now have? There has to be money in place, but that money has to reflect the demands of our population in Northern Ireland.
Chris Heaton-Harris
I thank the hon. Gentleman for his point, and we could consider introducing a needs-based factor into the Barnett formula for Northern Ireland—it would be a similar mechanism to that implemented in Wales—to put Northern Ireland’s public finances on a more sustainable footing. However, the absence of a functioning Executive has an impact on what can be done to address the systemic issues that Northern Ireland faces. Locally accountable leadership is urgently required to ensure that Northern Ireland has a stable and flourishing economy, and to advocate for reform of Northern Ireland’s public finances. To completely answer the hon. Gentleman’s point, negotiations between the Welsh Government and the Treasury on a fiscal framework and Barnett formula adjustments took over seven years. This is not an issue that could be solved overnight, even with the best will in the world.
Gavin Robinson (Belfast East) (DUP)
I am very grateful to the Secretary of State for that confirmation that he is at least willing to discuss considering public finances on the basis of need. Of course, the reason why the Holtham Commission process took so long was that it was the first example of the Government having to get their head around need—they had to understand it, and recognise that the public finances should respond to need. Now that the principle is clear, surely he does not believe that it would take as long this time around.
Chris Heaton-Harris
I very much hope that no discussion with a future Executive would take seven years to come to any conclusion. In the meantime, we have a responsibility to ensure that public services and the management of public funds can continue. That is why I have commissioned a range of information and advice from the Northern Ireland civil service on potential measures for raising more public revenue and otherwise improving the sustainability of public finances in Northern Ireland that an incoming Executive could consider. That is the UK Government’s first step in supporting the development of revenue-raising measures in Northern Ireland. It will allow us to better understand the challenges of taking this work forward, and support the Northern Ireland civil service in delivering it. The Government have for many years recognised the unique challenges that Northern Ireland faces. We have provided around £7 billion in extra funding to Northern Ireland since 2014, on top of the Barnett-based block grant.
I am grateful to officials in the Northern Ireland civil service for keeping public services running until an Executive are in place. The Government will continue to support the Northern Ireland civil service where we can, but it is important to note that responsibility for the difficult spending decisions flowing from this budget will ultimately continue to rest with the Northern Ireland Departments in the absence of an Executive. I do not want that to happen, and I encourage the people of Northern Ireland to urge their locally elected politicians to return to Stormont, so that decisions can be taken by those who were democratically elected to do that. As I say, the difficulties that Northern Ireland Departments face are a result of tough decisions not having been taken by elected representatives in Northern Ireland, not just this year, but over successive years. Funding alone will not solve the issues; that will require strong, responsible leadership, backed by a stable, devolved Government. We need the Executive back, so that they can progress much-needed and long-promised public service transformation.
Like others, I welcome the parties’ ongoing discussions with the head of the Northern Ireland civil service. There is a great deal of work going on behind the scenes about what a plan for government, and a budget for government, would look like, and how critical issues will be addressed when the Executive come back—issues such as budget sustainability and better, more efficient public services, which should be everyone’s priority. However, the head of the Northern Ireland civil service has written to me to say that things now need to become more political. In a way, I agree, but if that is to happen, all the parties must confront hard choices and ensure stability, rather than regular political crisis.
We must restore confidence in the institutions and show the people of Northern Ireland and the world what good devolved government looks like. I look forward to speaking with all the party leaders in the coming weeks, and receiving their proposals for the budget and a programme for government.
Sir Jeffrey M. Donaldson (Lagan Valley) (DUP)
As one of those leaders, may I be absolutely clear? My objective is to ensure that we get solid foundations for the restoration of our devolved Government, and that we do not meet another crisis in six months’ time, or a year’s time. That is why I will continue to work with the Government to get this right, and to put in place the measures that are necessary to safeguard Northern Ireland’s ability to trade within its own country—within the United Kingdom—and its internal market. That is essential to building the stability of which the Secretary of State speaks.
Chris Heaton-Harris
I thank the right hon. Gentleman for his point. He and his party representatives, and indeed all the political parties in Northern Ireland, have been working extremely hard behind the scenes—and in front of the camera, after each occasion—to develop what will, hopefully, be a plan for government, and proposals for the budget. As I say, it is time to bring those proposals forward into more political discussions. I know that each of the political parties will require a little time to develop those plans within their political committees and what have you. I should acknowledge, though, that I have already received budget proposals from the Alliance party, and I would welcome similar engagement from all the other parties.
Before I briefly summarise the intention behind the Bill, I should express my sincere thanks to the Opposition for their continued co-operation with the Government as we seek to bring the Bill forward at the requisite pace. I am particularly grateful to the shadow Northern Ireland Secretary, the hon. Member for Hove (Peter Kyle), who, as always, has been constructive. I also thank others on the Opposition Front Bench for the way that they have approached the Bill, and my hon. Friend the Member for North Dorset (Simon Hoare), who is Chair of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, and the Committee members, for their interest in the Bill.
The Bill will place on a legal footing the budget allocations that I outlined to the House via written ministerial statement on 27 April. I am conscious that the hour is already relatively late, and lots of hon. and right hon. Members want to contribute. I therefore do not propose repeating the contents of that written ministerial statement, which sets out the departmental allocations reflected in the Bill.
Mr Robin Walker (Worcester) (Con)
I am very cognisant of the difficulties that the Secretary of State faces with the Bill, and his frustration at having to deliver it at all. It is clear, though, that the budget for education in Northern Ireland is going down, even though the budget for education in England is going up quite substantially this year. Given the pressures faced in education, and what the Education Committee has heard about those pressures, can he at least confirm to the House what per-pupil spending in Northern Ireland will be after these budget changes? How will it compare with per-pupil spending elsewhere in the UK? Or perhaps the Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office, my hon. Friend the Member for Wycombe (Mr Baker), can give those figures in his concluding speech.
Chris Heaton-Harris
I thank my hon. Friend for his question, and acknowledge his long-standing interest in this area. He does great work on the Select Committee. I know that he has read the Institute for Fiscal Studies report published on 21 April, which stated that Northern Ireland spent similar amounts to England and Wales per pupil in 2022-23. Spending per pupil in Northern Ireland grew by 11% in real terms between 2018-19 and 2022-23, after having fallen for almost a decade. I will try to get him the exact details; if I cannot do that by the end of this debate, I shall write to him with them, but we have been following this issue, and he has been prodding us along all the way.
I was talking about the budget’s departmental allocations. As in the 2022-23 Northern Ireland budget, the allocations were developed after extensive, sustained engagement with the Northern Ireland civil service. The Bill will mean that Northern Ireland Departments have a total resource budget available of £14.2 billion, and a capital budget of £2.2 billion. That includes the Northern Ireland Executive block grant, set at the 2021 spending review and through the subsequent operation of the Barnett Formula, and income from regional rates.
I emphasise—I will no doubt state this a number of times, in this debate and elsewhere—that the sum available for this budget would have been the same sum provided to the Executive for 2023-24, if they were in place.
I recognise that the Northern Ireland Departments, in the absence of elected Ministers, will face difficult decisions, but it is necessary to deliver a balanced budget. These decisions rest with the Northern Ireland civil service, but I will continue to work with them to protect frontline services in Northern Ireland.
Stephen Farry (North Down) (Alliance)
I fully concur with the Secretary of State about the importance of the Executive being restored. The other point he was making was about ensuring that the Budget is balanced. Does he recognise that there is a certain disjoint between the current guidance that the civil service has and the expectations placed on it in balancing the Budget? They cannot touch the statutory areas, which means that the non-statutory areas are being overly targeted. Also, the Departments are overspending because they cannot live within the budget controls. Unless some action is taken over the remainder of this year, we will see a massive overspend, which will create a bigger hole and a bigger challenge down the line and lead to deeper cuts.
Chris Heaton-Harris
The hon. Gentleman makes a wise point, and I know he follows this issue closely. We are working closely with the Northern Ireland civil service on this matter. As he alluded to, when the UK Government took over the responsibility overall, we inherited an overspend for 2022-23. A reserve claim of £297 million was provided to balance last year’s Budget. Despite projections of an overspend throughout the year and the UK’s agreement to the reserve claim, the final budget figures from 2022-23 show a slight underspend of £40 billion, so it came in at £257 million. I know that those big sums of money will still cause great concern over the budgetary issues in Northern Ireland, but it does demonstrate how monitoring rounds and monitoring spending bring about amazing behaviours for budgetary purposes. I would like to think we can work together in this space in the future. However, the one thing I do know—it has been demonstrated time and time again—is that that work would be better done by a locally elected Executive, with Ministers accountable to the people who elected them.
As I mentioned, with agreement from the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, my right hon. Friend the Member for Salisbury (John Glen), flexibility has been granted on the repayment of this reserve claim, which moves the repayment into the next financial year, not this one. Before I conclude, I will briefly run through the Bill clause by clause.
Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet) (Con)
Can the Secretary of State confirm that the UK Government still provide additional funding to the Police Service of Northern Ireland to reflect the lethal terrorist threat to which Northern Ireland is still subjected?
Chris Heaton-Harris
Indeed, we do provide that funding. It is to the value of £32 million a year this year and next year for sure, and then the future is the future.
Clauses 1 and 2 authorise the use of resources by Northern Ireland Departments and other specified public bodies, amounting to—I love figures like this—£27,403,000,514 in the year ending 31 March 2024, for the purposes specified in part 2 of schedule 1 and subject to the limits set out in subsections (4) to (7) of clause 2.
Clauses 3 and 4 authorise the Northern Ireland Department of Finance to issue out of the Consolidated Fund for Northern Ireland the sum of £22,790,893,000 for the purposes set out in part 2 of schedule 1.
Clause 5 authorises the temporary borrowing by the Northern Ireland Department of Finance of £11,395,447,000—approximately half the sum covered by clause 3. That is a normal safeguard against the possibility of a temporary deficiency arriving in the Consolidated Fund for Northern Ireland, and any such borrowing is to be repaid by 31 March 2024.
Clause 6 authorises the use of income by Northern Ireland Departments and other specified public bodies from the sources specified in part 2 of the schedule for the purposes specified in part 2 of the schedule in the year ending 31 March 2024.
Clause 7 provides for the authorisations and limits in the Bill to have the same effect as if they were contained in a budget Act of the Northern Ireland Assembly. It also modifies references in other pieces of legislation to Northern Ireland estimates, which would normally form part of the Assembly’s supply process.
Clauses 8 and 9 are self-explanatory and deal with “Interpretation” and “Short title”.
Finally, the schedule to the Bill sets out the amount of money authorised for use for each Northern Ireland Department, the purposes for which it can be spent and the other sources of income from which the Departments can draw.
Before I sit down, I express my sincere thanks for the ongoing hard work of the civil servants in Northern Ireland. With this Bill, I am only setting out the available total resource and capital budget for the Northern Ireland Departments of £14.2 billion and £2.2 billion respectively. I make it clear that in the absence of an Executive, it is now the responsibility of the Northern Ireland Departments to make the specific spending decisions to ensure that they live within the Budget limits as set out in the Bill. I recognise that is not an easy task and requires difficult decisions, but people in Northern Ireland rightly expect to see those decisions taken in Stormont, and I wholeheartedly agree with them. However, until a functioning Executive returns, this Bill will allow public services to continue functioning and will help to protect the public finances in Northern Ireland. I therefore commend this Bill to the House.
Sammy Wilson
The promise actually was broken by the Secretary of State. It was a two-sided promise: that would not be raised by Ministers, who would be sensitive to the issue, knowing what our answer to these issues are and, in turn, we would stick to the budget debate. That promise has not been kept, so it would be remiss of me not to make it clear, as has been made clear by my party leader in an intervention, that we want to see the Executive up and running, but there are rules for the working of the Executive. There are important safeguards for the Executive to work: the views of both communities have to be respected, accepted and reflected in the decisions made in the Executive and in the decisions made by the Executive.
As things stand, with the protocol and the framework, there will still be a requirement for foreign law to be imposed in Northern Ireland and for Ministers of a Unionist disposition to operate that system—a system that the Government, even in the Windsor framework discussions, indicated would lead to divergence between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. A paltry safeguard of the Stormont brake was put in but, even if it worked, it still would not stop Northern Ireland becoming further away from the rest of the UK because of decisions made in this House about laws that would affect the United Kingdom, excluding Northern Ireland.
I have to say to the Secretary of State that, while that situation pertains, he cannot ignore the requirements of the law in Northern Ireland. The views of both communities must be reflected, accepted and implemented in the Executive and the Assembly. If that does not happen, they cannot function because we do not have the basis for agreement and for decisions being made.
It is debatable, of course, but we can talk about the Executive, up and running, being able to decide and resolve some of the issues that have been talked about here today. As I go through my speech, I point out that the Executive, its implementation and existence is not essential to deal with some of the fundamental issues that have given rise to the budget problems that Northern Ireland is facing.
I wish to make two points, the first of which is about the impact of the budget on services in Northern Ireland. Like the SNP spokesperson, the hon. Member for Gordon (Richard Thomson), I do not want to go through every Department but, as this has been raised by two or three speakers already, one of the starkest indications of the budget problem we have in Northern Ireland is to be found in education. There will be a 2.8% reduction in education spending in Northern Ireland, while in England there will be a 6.5% increase. That will affect the aggregated schools budget: the amount of money that goes to individual schools. It will particularly affect youngsters with special educational needs because, of course, as has been said, the easiest things to cut are things like classroom assistants. Of course, spending on classroom assistants and support for people with special educational needs is to be cut by 50%. There are already 11,000 children diagnosed with special educational needs who will be affected, and there is a waiting list of 400 children who have not even been placed, so we can see the ongoing problem and the problems we will build up over the years because of the cuts in the education budget. I could also talk about aspects of the education budget that are designed to help youngsters from deprived backgrounds, such as measures on school meals that were introduced by the Minister from my party. They will have to be reduced as well, which again tends to affect children from the most disadvantaged areas.
Let us take the other example, which has also been mentioned. I served for some time on the Northern Ireland Policing Board. Policing is important for any community, and it is particularly important in Northern Ireland because of the ongoing terrorist threat, the problem of paramilitaries and the terror gangs and criminal gangs associated with them, and the impact that has on communities. New Decade, New Approach made a commitment to have 7,500 officers, yet the figure is set to fall to about 5,700 officers. In the next two years, 850 officers are going to retire. The money is available to recruit only 204, so the situation will get worse and worse in terms of police officer numbers, which will fall below the commitment made on how many are required in Northern Ireland.
Chris Heaton-Harris
We have just had a debate about making sure that we are factually correct in this place. I am quite sure that what the right hon. Gentleman is saying is absolutely factually correct. However, does he not recognise that the commitment to increase police numbers to 7,500 that he is talking about was a commitment by the Executive? Would the choices that he has outlined not be better served by an Executive functioning and an Assembly scrutinising?
Sammy Wilson
I know that the Secretary of State was not personally responsible, but he cannot wash his hands of the New Decade, New Approach agreement, which was between the parties in Northern Ireland and the then Secretary of State, the right hon. Member for Skipton and Ripon (Julian Smith). The Executive did not pull this out of the air and say, “We’re going to do this”; it was part of the agreement that was made. Indeed, I have heard Ministers in this place saying time and again, “You’ve got to get back to the New Decade, New Approach promises and the commitments that were made,” yet this is one of those very commitments, and it is one that will not be met because the money is not there.
The argument that we have heard tonight is: “Well, that’s partly the responsibility of the Executive. If the Executive were up and running, then you could spend the money better.” I have no difficulty with that. Only a fool would say there were no savings to be made in a resource budget of £14 billion, or that it could not be spent better. Anybody who looks at their own personal budget will find ways of saving money and allocating it better to meet their priorities, so of course the potential is there. Indeed, I know from my time in the Executive that we were able to find 3% savings across Departments, and I am not against what the Minister said—that there are ways we could spend money better.
We have dodged reforms over the years because some of them require difficult decisions. That is the responsibility of the Executive, if they were up and running. I could bore the House with lots of examples, but in the past our Ministers have shown how we have used money in order to use resources better. Indeed, we have even looked at co-operation with the Republic of Ireland, when it has come to spending money, and at how we could share resources to deal with those kinds of issues and make better use of money.
Our party believes in low taxation and the proper use of the public resources we have, so we are not going to ignore that. But the fact of the matter is that the Executive are not up and running. Even if they were up and running, the issues and the problems of public spending in Northern Ireland are so big that the Executive would struggle to make some of the necessary reforms. Do not forget some of those reforms require money to be spent to make the reforms, so there is a vicious circle.
The Budget is inadequate—that is the first thing we need to look at. The holes in the Budget are so big and the issues around it so difficult that even if we had a performing Executive tomorrow, they would not be able to get past those issues. The building of public sector housing has fallen by 25% because of capital costs.
There are also difficulties, when it comes to the Executive, of pure caution. I know the Minister will talk about how much money has been given to Northern Ireland, but do not forget that we have given back £471 million in financial transactions capital, because the rules tied around that required a degree of innovation by civil servants and the Northern Ireland Office that was not always possible. The main outlet for it was housing, and there is only so much that it could absorb. So when it comes to taking money off the Executive, let us not forget that where money could not be spent, it was returned to the Exchequer. Sometimes it was frustrating to find that money had been given that could not be spent because we were not being innovative enough.
That brings me to the second issue. I know the Minister will say how much money is given to Northern Ireland and how some constituents in the south of England would envy the amount of money that comes to Northern Ireland, but there is a mechanism for allocating money within the United Kingdom. At present, the Barnett mechanism works by simply giving Northern Ireland a percentage—3%. If there are Barnett consequentials for Government spending for the whole of the United Kingdom, we get 3%.
However, it was always recognised that across the United Kingdom the circumstances are different. It was first raised in Wales and, as has been pointed out, there is a greater need in some parts of the United Kingdom, because of a whole lot of factors that I will go into in a minute, and therefore the 3% given on a per head basis is not adequate. It needs to be topped up on a well-established needs basis. Because of needs in Northern Ireland, it was reckoned that for every £100 spent in England, £125 would need to be spent in Northern Ireland. In other words, it was a 25% uplift.
For example, if the Barnett formula showed that Northern Ireland should get 3%, on the basis that Northern Ireland has 3% of the UK population, then there should be a 25% addition—a 0.75% addition to the 3%—to that. That has not been happening. The Northern Ireland Fiscal Council has worked out that had that additional needs element been put in this year, then we would have had another £323 million. Incidentally, that would have plugged the gap in public spending.
If that were happening right across the United Kingdom and people were saying that they were not applying it in Scotland or Wales, then, I suppose, those in Northern Ireland would have no cause for complaint. The truth of the matter is that it is being applied in every other part of the United Kingdom, apart from in Northern Ireland. This is the only budget that is being brought forward where the need is recognised but not reflected in the moneys allocated.
The Secretary of State has argued that if the Assembly were up and running, we could make the case, but we do not need to make the case; it has already been agreed that the formula for Northern Ireland should be another £25 on top of every £100 spent in England. We do not need to fight over the definition of need, because it has already been established. The Holtham Commission made that quite clear. I take the point that was made earlier: I do not want Northern Ireland to become some sort of public sector-dominated economy, which makes us totally reliant. I want to see Northern Ireland becoming self-reliant. I want to see a growing economy; an economy that is generating taxes, income and revenue, and that does not need to be reliant on having a fight with the Treasury every year about the budget and whether we are getting the proper Barnett consequentials.
The definition of need is already well established. It is based on demographic figures—the number of people—and deprivation and cost measures, such as the under-16 dependency ratio, the retired persons dependency ratio, the percentage of population claiming income-related benefits, the percentage of population with long-term illness, the proportion of people outside settlements of 10,000 people, and so on and so forth. We do not need to fight about how much Northern Ireland is entitled to. We do not need to fight about the measure that determines that need. All we need is a decision that the need should be reflected in the budget allocation in Northern Ireland, just as it is in Scotland and Wales.
The Secretary of State argues that, if the Executive were up and running, we could make those arguments, but the arguments are made. The question is how long do we have to wait for what happens in other parts of the United Kingdom to be applied to Northern Ireland.
Gavin Robinson (Belfast East) (DUP)
It is a pleasure to follow the Chair of the Public Accounts Committee, the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier) because, in fairness, she has added a new and useful level to the debate. Hers was a very worthwhile contribution, so I thank her for participating and hope that she shows a renewed and continued vigorous interest in the issues of Northern Ireland.
There have been a number of very useful contributions so far in this debate, if we set aside that from the honourable Healy-Rae from Foyle—the hon. Member for Foyle (Colum Eastwood). We enjoy the hon. Member oscillating from a year and a half ago, when he was spending his time cajoling, provoking, ridiculing and mocking my leader and my party at a time when we were raising serious issues, to today, when he is poking, prodding, encouraging and saying, “Just get back to work”, again ignoring serious issues and not recognising the sincerity with which we have sought to highlight and the aspiration to address the issues that are frustrating the proper operation of devolution.
We have heard from my right hon. Friend the Member for East Antrim (Sammy Wilson), who talked about the imbalance between what was attempted to address the deficiency in democratic accountability on issues agreed in Europe and the lack of provision and the danger associated with divergence on Bills brought forward through this place. This week and last, for example, the Postal Packets (Miscellaneous Amendments) Regulations 2023 has been but one issue that jars entirely with what the Prime Minister said when the Windsor Framework was published.
We can see clearly how that will treat parcels coming to and from Northern Ireland as foreign parcels, and we can see clearly how it up-ends the commitments given to the people of Northern Ireland during the Windsor framework process—lest we forget—when the majority of parties in Northern Ireland said that there were no problems with the withdrawal agreement and that it should be rigorously implemented on the people of Northern Ireland. When the Windsor framework was published, they said it was a wonderful solution, yet here we are even today, and we can see that the issues left unresolved will continue to plague and cause difficulty for the shared aspiration of restoring devolution. I say that at the outset, because it is important to consider again the context of why we are considering this Bill.
When we have debates such as this, Members will hear criticism, and I will not shy away from that. From my perspective, touching on the principle of this Bill and the reason why we are here today, the Northern Ireland Office has not done enough, the Government have not given enough and the people have had just about enough. When I say that they have not done enough, we should listen to the hon. Member for Gordon (Richard Thomson). He and I do not share the same political perspective on these things, but he highlights accurately that here we are debating a Bill that has not had any pre-legislative scrutiny and that has not been before the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee.
We are implementing and allocating resource to a budget that has not been section 75 screened, and it is having huge and undetermined consequences for the public sector in Northern Ireland and the voluntary sector in Northern Ireland. Even if Members are willing, and I am not, to forget about them, it is affecting the ability of our Government Departments to fulfil their statutory functions—to educate children, to care for the elderly, to heal the sick. It is not me saying that, but every permanent secretary who has sought to engage with the Northern Ireland Office and has highlighted how difficult this process would be.
When the Children’s Law Centre, in the most non-party political way possible, writes to me and every other Member of Parliament to highlight just how deficient this process has been, it is amazing to see in the explanatory notes that the Bill is being rushed through because it is urgent. The written ministerial statement was issued on 27 April, and yet there has been nothing in between, knowing that the allocation on 27 April was not sufficient, and knowing at the time that permanent secretaries were saying they could provide their statutory and core functions, never mind extras such as extended schools or support for the most vulnerable members of our society. Let us not forget that that was a choice that the Northern Ireland Office made.
The explanatory notes say that there was no pre-legislative scrutiny, no consultation, and no equalities screening because the Bill had to be rushed, but when will Committee stage be? We do not know. Such a rush, but the Committee has not been scheduled. We hear that we are getting to the stage when things are becoming political. We also hear that there will need to be another Northern Ireland Bill—a Bill that gives the Secretary of State the ability to make decisions on behalf of permanent secretaries.
For the last two months, since the written ministerial statement about the allocation, there has been nothing. There has been no consultation on or scrutiny of the Bill, because it has to be rushed, but we do not know when its remaining stages will be. We now hear that there is need for a third Bill—by the way, a Bill specifically to provide the powers that the Northern Ireland civil service asked for, but that the Secretary of State chose not to include, in the Northern Ireland Budget Bill that received Royal Assent on 8 February. The Northern Ireland civil service provided draft provisions to the Northern Ireland Office, which refused to advance them. Now we hear that there is need of a third Bill, but we all know that there are very few weeks of parliamentary time left before this Session concludes. There will be recess in the summer. There are a couple of sitting weeks in September, but there are precious few weeks left. The Government are playing at this, and the NIO has not given enough.
I remember the debates that we had back in January about the Northern Ireland Budget Bill, and I remember the Minister of State responding, “Northern Ireland gets £1.20 where my constituents get just £1.” I remember crying out in the wilderness back in January about the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council, and the difference between what we are allocated and what we need. The only difference now is that more people seem to engage with that argument. The Fiscal Council has revised downwards its figure of how much spending Northern Ireland needs to England’s £1, from £1.28 to £1.24. Year on year, financial cycle after financial cycle, there is a deficit in the resources that we get. There is a compounding negative impact on the ability to deliver public services in Northern Ireland.
New Decade, New Approach was mentioned. That, and some of the industrial relation issues that arose at the time, were about pay parity. Pay for public sector workers in Northern Ireland was not keeping up with that for their counterparts in England, Scotland and Wales. Parity was achieved in 2020, yet the rates in Northern Ireland are now growing ever faster apart from those in England, Scotland and Wales.
Gavin Robinson
The Secretary of State shakes his head, but he knows the figures. In the next financial year, public spending in Northern Ireland will increase by 3.6%; public spending in England will increase by 6%. The disparity between what we get and what we need, and between what we get and what other parts of the United Kingdom get, continues to grow. That compounds the difficulties.
Some £297 million is scheduled to be taken out of our allocation this year and next. We are supposed to be grateful for the fact that it will not be taken out this year, and that the cut will be spread over two years. There is a projected overspend this year of £500 million, and a deficit of £575 million from public pay awards. That is £1.4 billion before we even start. I do not say that to be boring or over-detailed. Do I even care whether the Government agree with those figures? Not really, but people who should share our aspiration for a positive return to devolution when the circumstances are right need to recognise that there is nothing positive about the consequences of this budget—nothing positive at all. I am not an Assembly Member, but I suspect precious few will wish to take responsibility for the austerity and cuts that this Government have provided. That is why I say that people have just about had enough. They are not unfamiliar in Northern Ireland, despite how frustrating it is, with political discord. They understand the challenges in devolved Government. It is not lost on people, when we have just celebrated 25 years of the Good Friday agreement, that, for 40% of those 25 years, devolution did not operate. In fact, the majority of the time that it did operate was when the DUP and Sinn Féin were leading it, but the people of Northern Ireland are not unfamiliar with the frustrating circumstances that we find ourselves in. However, they want to hear a bit of realism.
When the Chairman of the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee, the hon. Member for North Dorset (Simon Hoare), who is not with us today, was batting back and forth with me in January on need and the Northern Ireland Fiscal Council, he dismissed those points. In fairness to him, we corresponded thereafter—it is not often I praise him, by the way—and he took my initiative. He talked to his colleagues and got Committee agreement to hold an inquiry on these financial issues. The evidence sessions have been useful, highly illuminating and will be in our best interests. That is why I say people want to see realism. They want to see us working together.
Yes, we will disagree about different methods and different ways of doing things, but we should recognise that, when there is a core problem, we need to work on the core solution. When there is a deficiency in how we are funded in Northern Ireland, we need to work to address that. When we need more resource simply to stand still—not to provide luxuries, but to provide essential services that people need and rely upon in Northern Ireland—we will do that collectively if needs be, but the Government should not sit back and wait for some collective ask. They know the facts and they have ignored the facts for month after month.
I am delighted to hear the Secretary of State say that they will now engage in the discussion on need. That is a departure from what the Northern Ireland Office has been saying for months. It is not a departure for Government in policy terms, given what has gone through in Wales previously, and it should not all be one-size-fits-all. We need to ensure that we invest not only in the financial aspects of how we deliver for people in Northern Ireland, but in Northern Ireland itself.
The Minister of State, Northern Ireland Office (Mr Steve Baker)
I am likewise most grateful to hon. and right hon. Members for their contributions this evening. I am most grateful, too, that the House again recognises that a Bill such as this is a responsible, but regrettable, step that we need to take as the UK Government to ensure that the delivery of public services can continue in Northern Ireland.
There are no easy decisions in the budget for anyone—not for us as the UK Government, not for Northern Ireland civil servants and not for a future Executive. We recognise that and we know that those decisions will not be going anywhere when an Executive returns.
It has become apparent to me that I and my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State may have been misunderstood on this point, so I want to be perfectly clear: on their return, an Executive will face this stark budget and the difficult decisions that follow from it. But we are also perfectly clear that the right people to be taking those tough decisions are locally elected Northern Ireland Executive Ministers. It should not be the UK Government or civil servants plugging the decision-making gap. It is only through the return of Ministers in Northern Ireland that the vital reforms that so many hon. Members have referred to can begin to take place to put public services on a much more effective, efficient and sustainable basis, fit for the demands and opportunities, and indeed the previous advancements in technology, particularly in medicine, of the 21st century.
Let no one mistake what is needed: reform to the health system, to make the most of decades of improvements in healthcare through specialisation; reform to drive down the waste that comes from a divided education system, perpetuating divisions that would be unlawful once children moved from education into work; and reform to foreshorten the shocking delays in Northern Ireland’s justice system and its appalling cost to taxpayers at turn after turn. Only through reforms and more will the public have the services they need and deserve.
What is the prize? In this debate, if I may say so, we have heard two competing visions for Northern Ireland: a vision of Northern Ireland standing with its hand out to the Republic of Ireland for subsidy, and a vision of Northern Ireland standing with its hand out to Great Britain for subsidy. This Government have a better vision than that. We have a vision for a strong and confident Northern Ireland standing on its own two feet, with a balanced budget, underpinning sound public services that have been reformed and are effective, and—yes—are properly audited.
We want to focus on the great, rich tradition and heritage of Northern Ireland’s industrial spirit, on the great commerce of Northern Ireland and on Belfast, one of the great industrial cities of this great United Kingdom. We want private capital flooding into Northern Ireland. We know that the great people of Northern Ireland are entrepreneurs who care about place and community. We know that there is goodwill all around this world for people to invest in Northern Ireland, but they are put off investing by the absence of an Executive.
Stephen Farry
I very much share the vision that the Minister is setting out, but, leaving aside the language around handouts and subsidies, will he at least recognise that to get from A to B the restored Executive will need a partnership with the UK Government to ensure that we can take forward those reforms?
Mr Baker
The hon. Gentleman makes a good point, and I shall come on to it in a moment, but I want there to be no mistake about this, either: as far as I can see from my vantage point, there is a pretty close correlation between poverty and paramilitarism in Northern Ireland. Leaving a primary school surrounded by razor wire in Shankill, I was struck by some of the murals I saw in that housing estate, commemorating and celebrating people who ought not to be celebrated. If I go to other areas of Belfast and elsewhere, there will be murals celebrating the other side.
It is time for Northern Ireland to be moving on. It is time to lift people out of poverty so that they have a better hope than the commemoration of a past that should never have taken place. No more looking back to a past that never was; it is time to look forward to a better future, founded on prosperity and sound public finances. Call me old school, Mr Speaker, but I like a balanced budget. Let us move forward.
Capital investment for a safe return from investors around the world, the rule of law, good government—the conditions are set. We have an entrepreneurial population, great skills, comparative advantage in financial services, cyber-security, advanced manufacturing and more. Crucially, we also have an institutional arrangement that, if people would only see it, is unique in all of the world: access to the UK as of right and to the EU as a privilege, UK services law and access to the UK’s free trade agreements. That is a unique set of institutional arrangements to promote Northern Ireland’s prosperity for the long run and deliver just the transformation that is needed.
It is true, as hon. Members have indicated in relation to the Windsor framework, that that comes at the price of a difficult compromise, with some EU law still in place. I confess it is a difficult compromise for me, as I have said in the past. However, we have to choose from available futures. At the moment, Northern Ireland’s future looks bleak indeed unless we get behind the reforms that are needed to balance the budget for the long run. I believe that if we do that, if we come together in unity for our good purposes for Northern Ireland, we can achieve great things.
On the quantum that is available, the hon. Members for Foyle (Colum Eastwood) and for Belfast East (Gavin Robinson) seem to be united in the idea that the budget is some sort of punishment. The hon. Member for Foyle suggested it was a tactic. I say to him that that is categorically not true. This spending envelope is the spending envelope that the Northern Ireland Executive would have faced had they not collapsed. It is not the case that we would be punishing people in the way that has been set out. To listen to the debate—
Colum Eastwood
It was not me who suggested that that was a tactic. The Secretary of State outlined the tactic in his own speech: he said that the next stages of the Bill will not be introduced until after the summer, and that that would give us all time to work together to get to government. It is clearly a tactic, although it is not going to work as a tactic. There are better tactics in my view, and I have laid some of them out to the Minister before, but it is a bit disingenuous to pretend that this is anything but a pressure point for the DUP that is clearly not working.
Mr Baker
I say to the hon. Gentleman that the simple fact is that the reason we are not doing all stages today is that summer recess approaches and we would trigger the Parliament Act inadvertently—[Interruption.] My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State does not accept that this is a tactic. The reality is, as we have said, that this is the spending envelope that would have been faced by a returning Executive.
I have to say that, listening to the debate, one would think that the spending envelope in Northern Ireland was at the discretion of my right hon. Friend, but of course, as Members know, nothing could be further from the truth. Long, dreary documents on how spending works are available for the public to read. I am sure that the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier) knows very well the documents to which I refer—I have given them a go. These things are fixed by our right hon. and hon. Friends in the Treasury; it is not at the discretion of me and my right hon. Friend to decide how much is spent. This is the envelope that the Executive would have faced.
The hon. Member for Foyle mentioned the shared island initiative, but that large sum of money was agreed, I believe, through the North South Ministerial Council and comes with a number of caveats. However, he reminds me that there are a number of super-tankers at sea here that have evolved through a number of political agreements. I think that we all need to be working with a restored Executive to rationalise how that spending goes forward. That can be done only with a restored Executive.
A review for the Barnett formula was touched on. My right hon. Friend said earlier that we recognise that introducing a needs-based factor in the application of the Barnett formula for Northern Ireland according to a mechanism similar to that implemented in Wales is an option that could be considered to put Northern Ireland’s public finances on a sustainable footing. However, it took a number of years for the Welsh Government and the Treasury to agree a formula, and my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Robin Millar) wisely cautioned us that that matter is not settled. He also cautioned us about the dominance of the public sector. That is why I am so firm that Northern Ireland must be founded on a revitalisation of its vibrant private sector.
Let me turn to the funding premium and the comparison between the percentage of funding for Northern Ireland and the equivalent spending for the rest of the UK. Let me be really clear because, in listening to the debate, one could misunderstand the position. Funding for Northern Ireland will increase from 20% to 25% extra in 2024-25. Insofar as that funding premium is forecast to fall below 20%, it is by the early 2030s but not immediately.
I am grateful to the hon. Member for Hove (Peter Kyle) for mentioning revenue-raising measures. We will have full advice by the end of this month. He referred to the remarks made by the permanent secretary at the Department of Education. We are very well aware that, to live with its budget, the Department of Education has already taken significant steps to reduce expenditure. I am aware that, despite that, there is a funding gap. Our Department continues to engage with the Department of Education and the Department of Finance to address that. A previous political agreement such as NDNA recognised the structural inefficiencies in Northern Ireland’s educational system, about which Members may perhaps see that I feel passionately, and recommended a review to address them with reform. I welcome the recent completion of the review into special educational needs provision, and I look forward to the outcome of the review of education provision for 14 to 19-year-olds.
There has been a great deal of interest in the particular details of per-pupil funding. I propose to write to my hon. Friend the Member for Worcester (Mr Walker) in detail on education funding. I shall place a copy of that letter in the Library for all Members who have expressed an interest.
The hon. Member for Gordon (Richard Thomson) in particular raised section 75 duties and whether they are carried out by us and so on. As the ones taking the decisions, Northern Ireland Departments completed indicative section 75 assessments that were considered by the Secretary of State when he set the overall budget allocations. In light of those budget totals, Departments are now completing final assessments.
Richard Thomson
I am grateful for that clarification, but however good the intentions are, it seems to fall short of full compliance with what is expected under the section 75 procedure. Could those indicative assessments be put in the public domain, so that we can start to foster that wider political debate about the budget choices that are now being made?
Mr Baker
That brings me on to a point I wanted to make. My right hon. Friend the Secretary of State and I sat here throughout the debate listening to a number of Members imploring us to take one action or another, which would amount to going down the road toward direct rule. We have no plans to go toward direct rule. We have been asked what we will do if this situation continues. In the event that we need to take further steps, we will announce them, if the need arises and when the time is right, but we have no plans to go to direct rule, and no amount of pressing us on one issue or another will cause us to take up direct rule.
Regarding the Windsor framework, yes, there are some technical matters that we might deal with in order to fulfil the policy intent clearly agreed by both sides. Where there are technical issues we need to move forward on, please, let us take them up as technical issues and deal with them in the Joint Committee. Let us not again raise such matters up to levels that require the attention of the great statesmen and women of Europe. It is better to deal with these things in a low-key way.
Sir Jeffrey M. Donaldson
With great respect to the Minister, the matters that we want to be addressed are not matters for the European Union; they are matters for His Majesty’s Government. They relate to the internal market of the United Kingdom and its workings. Either the UK Government are in charge of that, or they are not. When I see the UK Government introducing new statutory instruments to impose customs arrangements on parcels being sent from one part of the UK to another, I begin to wonder if the UK Government actually get our concern about the workings of the internal market.
Mr Baker
We certainly do. The right hon. Gentleman and I have walked a long way together over the last seven years. As he well knows, I regret that we have had to part ways somewhat at this point, but we are clearly aware of his concerns, which he articulates with great clarity and force. I hope he will not mind if, at this late hour, I say that I will leave this to my boss, the Secretary of State, and the other parties to work through.
Finally, I think, I turn to the issue of the Northern Ireland Audit Office, which the hon. Member for Hackney South and Shoreditch (Dame Meg Hillier) set out in some detail. Of course we appreciate the important role played by the NIAO and other independent bodies that hold the devolved Government to account, and ensure that public finances are spent properly and efforts are made to improve public services. However, when the Secretary of State considered budget allocations, he needed to take account of the challenging budget context and reductions faced by other Northern Ireland Departments. In such challenging circumstances, we believe it is only right that we ask the non-ministerial Departments and independent bodies to find savings in the same spirit as the rest of the Northern Ireland Departments.
Dame Meg Hillier
My concern is that it is a disproportionately large cut to a very small budget. It means that the Comptroller and Auditor General for Northern Ireland cannot complete her work programme for this year, and there is nobody else—no Executive, no Public Accounts Committee, no Assembly—that can do that job.
Mr Baker
Let me just check my notes to make sure I answer the hon. Lady properly on this point.
What we have done is roll forward the budget. The recommendations of the Assembly’s Audit Committee were made in a different economic and budget context. We maintain that, by rolling forward the 2022-23 budget allocation to the Northern Ireland Audit Office and other non-ministerial Departments, we have reached a fair outcome. I would be glad to meet the hon. Lady to discuss this matter further, but I think it better that we meet face to face in the first instance.
I hope right hon. and hon. Members agree that I have tried to respond to some of the main points made in the debate. We will write the letter on education funding. We do have a vision for Northern Ireland, which is one of Northern Ireland standing on its own two feet, with a balanced budget and reformed, effective and affordable public services; a Northern Ireland that is prosperous, happy and free, and is not always standing with its hand out to one party or another.
Question put and agreed to.
Bill accordingly read a Second time; to stand committed to a Committee of the whole House (Order, this day).