Integrated Review: Defence Command Paper
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The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Baroness Goldie) (Con)
My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, for their welcome recognition of the contribution made by our Armed Forces to the Covid response during a worrying and disturbing time for everyone. I think we are united in admiring what our Armed Forces have been able to do to contribute to the response and I appreciate that being both acknowledged and welcomed in the Chamber.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, raised a number of issues, including the comprehensive resilience strategy and the date of its publication. I do not have with me the specific date, but I shall undertake to look into it and respond to him. The noble Lord was slightly gloomy about the prospect of this vision for our defence capability and referred to previous strategic defence reviews. I say to him that I remember starkly the review that had to take place in 2010 because, as he will recall, having been in government prior to then, at the time we were facing a £38 billion black hole in the MoD budget. I remember it clearly because in flashing red lights above it was the future location of our RAF base at Lossiemouth. I am not given to going on demos, but I was moved to go on one, with cross-party support, marching in Lossiemouth in an effort to save the base. I am very glad that I went on that demo. I shall not say that it gave me an appetite for going on others, but I am absolutely delighted that we succeeded in saving Lossiemouth. It now occupies, as your Lordships will be aware, a position of strategic importance in our response to the threats we face. I would argue to the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, that the response and vision set out in our defence White Paper is vibrant, visionary, exciting and dynamic. Importantly, it also lays out a strategy that is funded.
The noble Lord expressed concerns about the RDEL budget. I reassure him that, averaged over the years, the budget will increase and, while broadly flat when using the OBR inflation assumptions and the GDP deflator, it will still increase by 0.1% over the period. I can reassure him that, as we modernise equipment and identify estate that is no longer fit for purpose, we anticipate reducing costs. Further, as he will be aware, we now face stringent Treasury rules. We have improved our practices in procurement of equipment, so some of his speculation about the future for these issues is rather bleak and not well founded.
The noble Lord and the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, raised the issue of our nuclear deterrent. I welcome from both sides of the Chamber a clear commitment to our nuclear deterrent. It is vital. It is essential that it remain credible, and that is why there has been a decision to increase the number of warheads. The inescapable virtue of a deterrent is that if it is not credible, you might as well start placing it in the scrapyard tomorrow. In fact, the acid test of a deterrent is: has it stopped happening the things that it is meant to deter? We all know the answer to that, and that is why we need the deterrent at the moment, why it must be credible and why we have made the decision to increase the number of warheads. But I would, of course, emphasise that it is not a target; it is a ceiling.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, also raised the issue of artificial intelligence—AI—which is an extremely important area of our activity. He will be aware of the sums we are allocating to research and development and to our new stratagems in that direction, and I think that is to be encouraged. It will transform how we respond to the new generation of threats we face, and I am satisfied that that is both an intelligent and substantive response to that nature of threat.
The noble Lord also raised the question of climate change, sustainability and the strategy within the MoD. I am pleased to say that a very thorough and extensive report was completed which attracted admiration within the department. It certainly made clear to the department the decisions we will have to take and the objectives we should have. I will inquire about whether I can share some of that information with him, because it paints a very positive picture.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, along with the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, raised the question of a defence debate. No one is more enthusiastic about a defence debate than I am, and I will certainly speak to my noble friend the Chief Whip and say that, if time can be found in the schedule, it would be a very worthwhile deployment of time in this Chamber. I would be very happy and proud to represent the Government’s position on defence on that occasion.
The noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe, specifically mentioned R&D and what we are investing. We have committed to spend £6.6 billion on research and development in the next four years to accelerate advanced and next-generation capabilities. That reverses a decline in R&D across recent decades, once again elevating us to the status of a world-leading science nation. There was interest from both the noble Lord and the noble Baroness in what we are doing with all this investment. The answer is that we will drive innovation in game-changing technologies that offer generational leaps, so that we can outpace our adversaries and give us a decisive edge. This will deliver capabilities that are agile, interconnected and data driven.
I think it was the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, who raised the integrated review. As she is aware, the integrated review identified four overarching objectives: sustaining strategic advantage through science and technology; shaping the open international order of the future; strengthening security and defence at home and overseas; and building resilience at home and overseas. The defence White Paper is a very substantial response to these overarching objectives, and it indicates clearly how defence sees itself fitting into the pursuit of these objectives and making that essential contribution to our global reach.
The noble Lord and the noble Baroness raised the issue of value for money. As I observed earlier, we are making great strides through the reformation of our business case processes, greater transparency and greater accountability for SROs and our continuous improvement of the skills in defence to tackle these vital decisions. I also mentioned that the Treasury is ever vigilant in watching over what we get up to, and there is new and stringent guidance for all investment decisions, including major programmes.
The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, raised the matter of our allies and, specifically, the matter of China, and that is a very important issue. When you have allies—obviously, one of our most important alliances is NATO —the one thing that you want to reassure your partners in any alliance about is that you are serious about the commitment that you are being asked to make. I think that this White Paper will demonstrate to our allies that we are absolutely serious. As she knows, we are the second-biggest contributor to NATO and the biggest spender in Europe on defence. The White Paper simply cements and corroborates our commitment to defence—not just to talk about it but to put our money where our mouth is and deliver the things that absolutely matter to meet the new and different threats we face, which are of a character we have not previously been familiar with.
In relation to China, which the noble Baroness specifically raised, I think that she posed the question whether it should be trade or defence. I think, actually, there is room for both. It seems to me that it is necessary, as we propose to do with an enhanced forward presence and forward engagement, to make it clear that our presence is serious. We seek to influence and to avoid conflict arising, and by our influence we contribute to that end. But it is also important, if we are to understand what one of the major global powers is doing, that there has to be another relationship, both diplomatic and economic, and that relates to trade.
I hope that I have answered all the points that the noble Lord and the noble Baroness raised. If I have overlooked anything, I undertake to write.
The Deputy Speaker (Baroness Henig) (Lab)
We now come to 20 minutes allocated for Back-Bench questions. I ask that questions and answers be brief so that I can call the maximum number of speakers.
Lord Boyce (CB) [V]
My Lords, we should all broadly welcome the defence Command Paper, which puts our Armed Forces in a much better position than they found themselves in after the last two defence reviews. Noble Lords will note the emphasis on a stronger global maritime strategy and persistent forward presence, which should be applauded. However, the workhorses of delivering such a strategy—our destroyers and frigates—are to be reduced from the presently inadequate 19 to 17. The Minister will no doubt attempt to reassure your Lordships about the new Type 26 and Type 31 escorts coming online, but these are years away from becoming operational. Would she agree that every effort should be made to coerce the shipbuilding industry, which the Command Paper extols, to expedite their delivery? The length of time given to build these ships is lamentable.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I thank the noble and gallant Lord. He raises an important point. I would observe that, across the piece, the programme for shipbuilding over the next 10 to 15 years is exciting and substantial. On our immediate ambitions, as the noble and gallant Lord said we are building eight Type 26 frigates on the Clyde and currently assembling five Type 31 frigates in Rosyth. These are important shipping orders. They are doing well, as far as I am aware. They are coping well with the challenges that we have seen over the last year. We certainly anticipate delivery on time.
The noble and gallant Lord will also be aware that we will probably mothball some of the Type 23s which have not been operational. He mentioned a figure of 17, but I would far rather have 17 workable, operational frigates that we can call on than a notional figure of something else with perhaps only 14 being operational. At least we are now much clearer on what we have, and that these things will be working and can be deployed when we need them. Looking at the transition is not to get the whole picture; you have to look at the overall future. As he is aware, that means Type 26 and Type 31 frigates, and eventually Type 32s, as well as fleet solid support ships, six multi-role support ships, an LSD(A) and a multi-role ocean surveillance ship. There is a really exciting package of shipbuilding in there that I hope my friend, the noble Lord, Lord West, will also be excited about.
Lord Trefgarne (Con)
My Lords, it is good to ask a supplementary question on this after seeing my noble friend Lord Younger on the Front Bench, because I had the privilege of serving in the Ministry of Defence under his late father. I ask my noble friend the Minister whether the policy of continuous at-sea deterrence remains in place. There has been some press comment recently about some industrial difficulties at Faslane and Coulport, which might risk that policy. By continuous at-sea deterrence, I of course mean that, at every hour of every day of every night, somewhere in the world, one of our Trident submarines is on patrol ready to respond, should our supreme national interest so require it.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
Without hesitation, I reassure my noble friend that such is the case; the continuous at-sea deterrent is just that. It has been doing that important job without interruption. I am aware of his concern about industrial action and understand that it is under control and will not obstruct the operation of our CASD.
The Lord Bishop of Portsmouth [V]
My Lords, there is much to be welcomed in the defence Command Paper and the integrated review. As the Bishop of Portsmouth, I particularly welcome the ambitious signals to British shipbuilding for the Navy. However, I worry that, noting the tilt to the Indo-Pacific and expansion of Britain’s geographical scope into Africa, the integrated review does not suggest reducing the UK Government’s commitments anywhere, yet the proposed cuts to the Armed Forces mean the smallest full-time Army for centuries. Size is not everything, but are we asking too much of the Armed Forces? Do we risk overstretch? We seem to be gaining commitments, while failing to resource the resolution of existing challenges. Can the Minister indicate how the Government intend to flesh out their order of priorities?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I reassure the right reverend Prelate that, as he is aware, we currently engage in activity in Africa, partly with the United Nations and partly with other allies. That is where we help in trying to defeat terrorism and assist with capacity building. We are satisfied that the plans we have laid out are not just capable of discharging our existing obligations but, because of the focus that we have on a reconfigured and different kind of military force, make us better placed to deal with some of the challenges that we are facing. The right reverend Prelate is aware of the exciting vision for the Army, which involves a number of changes, not least brigades with specific functions and the creation of the Ranger regiment. It is marginally smaller, because the change is not hugely significant, but this regiment is going to be fleet of foot, highly trained, with a professional focus, and the right equipment and technology, so that we can have it where we need it quickly, doing the job that it is required to do.
Lord Snape (Lab)
Can the Minister tell us whether the latest reduction of our Armed Forces will have any impact on the type of operation that the British military conducts in future? Can she confirm that the Trident replacement programme will be subject to a separate debate and possibly a vote, in the other place? I remind her that, before the last election, the Prime Minister said that he would not be
“cutting the armed services in any form”.
What does this review mean if it is not a cut?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The review means that we have recognised the pace of change to both the intensity and the character of the threat. The noble Lord is aware that it is now in a multidimensional form with which we were not familiar 10, 15 or even five years ago. It requires us to respond with resilience and flexibility, not rigidity. That is why it is no longer appropriate to measure effectiveness by mass. We need to measure the skills and talents that we have, the swiftness of response, the professionalism of our training, the equipment and the technology. That is the sensible and intelligent way to respond to the new character of the threat.
Baroness Miller of Chilthorne Domer (LD) [V]
Can the Minister explain the logic of increasing our reliance on nuclear weapons and decreasing our conventional forces given that this increases the danger of nuclear proliferation, and can she say how a 40% increase in our nuclear capacity is compliant with Article 6 of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I have already indicated to your Lordships why we consider maintenance of a credible minimum nuclear deterrent to be absolutely essential, and it is our judgment that the increase in warheads is essential to underpin that. That is not escalating nuclear weaponry but simply ensuring that the deterrent as it currently exists is adequately supported and capable of doing the deterrent job which it is there to do. We are satisfied that we are compliant with the non-proliferation treaty; of the stated nuclear stockpile nations, we have the lowest stockpile.
Lord Craig of Radley (CB)
My Lords, the innovative, offensive National Cyber Force taking shape with defence SIS and GCHQ participation will presumably involve the ministerial responsibilities of both the Foreign Secretary and the Defence Secretary. To which Minister and which senior military or civilian officeholder will the commander of this force be primarily responsible, and indeed, has the appointment been announced?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The noble and gallant Lord is quite correct that this is a shared departmental responsibility. I am unable to say whether the command structure has been identified but I shall inquire about that and undertake to write to him.
Lord Lang of Monkton (Con) [V]
[Inaudible]—review, which I warmly welcome. The proposals for Army numbers stand out alarmingly, and that is the cause of my plea. The Army is the enduring core of national defence, the glue that holds combined operations together, yet another reduction—this time of over 12.5%—will mean that it will have halved in size over the last 30 years. That does not seem credible to me, and credibility is vital both as a deterrent—deterrence applies not just in nuclear—to potential enemies and as a reassurance to allies, yet our Army will be smaller than those of France, Italy, Spain and Germany. Does the Minister agree that defence needs more than platforms and robots, that boots on the ground will always be needed, and that hollowed-out battalions and a hollowed-out Army are neither efficient nor inspiring of confidence? Will she carry this message to the Government? A drone can assist a soldier on the ground, but it cannot replace him.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
We are aware that much of the conventional and traditional format of the military again has been overtaken by technology. We have seen, for example, what can happen to traditional types of metalwork armoured vehicles made possible by the interception and attack of unmanned drones. We have to recognise that, because of technology, many members of our Armed Forces are now able to do things with fewer people that they could not do in years gone by. What absolutely matters is that we have the skill, resilience, flexibility, technology and equipment to ensure that our Armed Forces are absolutely able to operate at their best, and that means that much of what we depended on before for numbers of boots on the ground has been superseded by innovation and new developments. However, our Armed Forces will be crack forces doing an important job.
Lord West of Spithead (Lab)
My Lords, the integrated review and this defence paper are extremely important documents. To pick up the Government’s wording, they are critical to the “sovereignty, security and prosperity”—and possibly the survival—of our nation. That is so important that to have two repeat Statements in the last dog watch, one each week, is really not very appropriate. I know that the noble Baroness agrees that there should be a debate. We need to push this harder. It is a disgrace that this Chamber, with its deep reservoir of knowledge, will not have a proper debate. This really needs to be pushed. The survival of this nation, possibly—its sovereignty, its security? It is not good enough that it is not discussed.
In the few seconds I have left, I will add that, after 56 years on the active list, I have often been told about jam tomorrow, and too often it has turned to margarine. I am very worried that the cuts we are having will not be covered by jam in the future. Jam disappears: it has a habit of doing that.
My final question is on numbers of people. Will the work being done by the noble Lord, Lord Lancaster, on reserves, provide the men who will be needed for MACP, resilience, disaster relief et cetera around the UK, because the regular services will not be able to do that?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I say to the noble Lord that business in the Chamber is not my responsibility; it is the responsibility of his and my colleagues, working through the usual channels. Your Lordships will all be aware that an extraordinary amount of time in the Chamber has, rightly, been deployed on the consideration of the consequences of a pandemic, not least in relation to health issues, social support and related educational and broader welfare issues. This Chamber has been coping with a lot. I have welcomed the idea of a debate. The noble Lord referred to two Statements in quick succession. No one is more aware of that than I am: tonight will be a busy night for me, and I look forward to further engagement tomorrow.
On the “jam tomorrow” charge, I would say that it is perfectly clear from the figures disclosed by the Government that there is jam today waiting to be invested. There is an exciting programme of investment, there is a vision and a strategy set out. I think it is relevant and, at last, meeting the threat that we face: that rapidly changing, very diverse, different threat from that which many of us have previously known. It is a new world, and this is an exciting response by the Government and the Ministry of Defence to that world.
Lord Campbell of Pittenweem (LD)
My Lords, as the noble Baroness mentioned Lossiemouth, and as I had the good fortune to be the Member of Parliament for RAF Leuchars for some 28 years, let me ask her a question about the Royal Air Force. Why have the Government refused in this review to commit to purchase any more F35 Lightning aircraft? Does this mean that, as will be the case when the carrier “Queen Elizabeth” deploys to the Far East in the summer, it will always have to rely in part on American aircraft and United States Marine Corps pilots?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
As the noble Lord is aware, we have a partnership at the moment with our American friends, who provide support to the carrier. That is a matter of merit; it is about alliance, friendship and interoperability, and we should understand that. The Government’s commitment is to increase the fleet size of Lightning beyond the 48 aircraft of which we are aware. I hope that reassures the noble Lord.
Lord Dannatt (CB) [V]
My Lords, now that the Regular Army is once again to be reduced in size in order to provide additional funds for the defence equipment programme, can the Minister give an idea of the thinking within the Ministry of Defence about increasing the size of the Army should the Government of the day wish to take part in a large operation, such as the two Gulf wars, or an enduring operation, such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan? My concern is that the future may not look how we might wish it to look; however, history has a habit of repeating itself.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I say to the noble Lord, whose experience in these matters I hugely respect, that we have to look at the future very much on the basis of working with partners, friends and allies. We also want to look at a future where, with a forward presence, we hope to avert the possibility of conflict; it is far better to do so than to go to war. It is also better to be a presence, perhaps assisting and facilitating a diplomatic intervention which may be critical in such avoidance. The noble Lord will be aware that the MoD always has to be cognisant of what may be around the corner, and, certainly, that is part of our longer-term strategy for keeping that resilience to be able to cope with what may be in front of us.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, it is a great pity that this thoughtful and considered defence review should be so spoilt by the unwise and, I think, dangerous decision to reduce substantially the size of the Army, to the consternation of our allies, the satisfaction of potential adversaries and, I fear, to the detriment of both the Armed Forces and our defence. However, I shall not bang on about that; instead, I shall ask my noble friend the Minister, who knows about these things, about another threat to the United Kingdom entirely—namely, the threat to the union. To what extent can this new Command Paper assist in bolstering the union of the United Kingdom?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
I am very grateful to my noble friend for raising something of critical importance because we in this Chamber are all aware that the MoD depends greatly upon the presences that we have throughout the United Kingdom. I mentioned Lossiemouth in Morayshire earlier, and of course we also have the submarine headquarters base at Faslane, RAF Valley in Wales and, obviously, numerous significant presences in England and, to some extent, in Northern Ireland. My noble friend is absolutely correct: we need these strategic presences within the union, but, actually, I argue that these nations need the MoD. For example, the spread of personnel in Scotland—regulars, reserves and civilians—totals just over 18,500; in Wales, that spread totals 4,940, and in Northern Ireland it is 4,620. That is before we look at jobs supported by industry expenditure: in Scotland there are 12,400, in Wales there are 5,700 and in Northern Ireland there are 500. That denotes how invaluable the devolved nations are to the MoD, as is the whole of the UK, including England—and it denotes how they benefit from that MoD investment in them.
Lord Reid of Cardowan (Lab)
My Lords, we have always maintained that the purpose of our nuclear weapons is nuclear deterrence, not war fighting. That is reflected initially on page 76 of the Command Paper, but it goes on to say:
“However, we reserve the right to review this assurance if the future threat of weapons of mass destruction, such as chemical and biological capabilities, or emerging technologies”—
I assume that this includes cyber—
“that could have a comparable impact, makes it necessary.”
In other words, in three sentences, we have shifted to a position where we are apparently prepared to use nuclear weapons in response to any form of aggression. Does the Minister understand that huge step away from deterrence and towards war fighting with nuclear weapons? Does she realise the Pandora’s box that that will open if the Government proceed?
Baroness Goldie (Con)
The protocols surrounding nuclear weapons have been widely understood. They exist as a deterrent and to do that job in the hope that they never have to be used. I said earlier that the test of a deterrent is just that: has it deterred what it is supposed to? The current deterrent has done that for well over 60 years. It is the deterrent aspect that is all-important, and that makes it an effective presence within our MoD capability.
The Deputy Speaker (Baroness Henig) (Lab)
The time for questions has now elapsed.