High-Speed Rail

(Limited Text - Ministerial Extracts only)

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Mrs Theresa Villiers)]

Is my hon. Friend aware that the analysis of the business case for RP2 does not take into account the huge cost that would come from disruption to services as a result of the kind of upgrade she is talking about?

[Andrea Leadsom]

I thank my right hon. Friend for her intervention. I had not written that into my contribution because there is so much to say. As she well knows, HS2 requires the complete rebuilding of Euston station, and it would be extraordinarily difficult for services to be able to continue on the west coast main line during that period. In addition, as I am sure she knows, the proposals in RP2 are not the same as the first incremental improvements to the west coast main line in the first phase of regeneration, which required rebuilding virtually the whole of the track and the signals. The incremental proposals are entirely achievable while existing network services are utilised along the west coast main line.

[Mrs Villiers]

Does my hon. Friend accept that the more intensively a transport system is used, the higher the price paid in terms of lack of resilience? One of the major concerns about RP2 is that the line is intensively used at present, and the kind of even more intense use that she advocates would have a significant impact on it and cause major deterioration in reliability. There would be a significant negative impact on the quality of the passenger experience.

[Andrea Leadsom]

I thank the Minister again, but I have to disagree with her. There is no evidence that suggests that RP2 would involve a desperately intensive use of the west coast main line. Not only that, the capacity created by it would significantly exceed the likely demand, certainly in the short and medium term. Other rail experts argue that the forecasting model that is being used by the Department for Transport is suitable for forecasting demand up to 10 years only, not the 43 or 45 years for which the Department is forecasting. There is no clear evidence that my proposal would entail that intensity of west coast main line usage.

Another significant benefit of RP2 is that it can be delivered far quicker than HS2, thereby dealing with the problems of overcrowding now, rather than leaving the commuters of Manchester, Birmingham, Rugby and Milton Keynes to wait until 2026 for proper relief. The danger that is inherent in forecasting out to 45 years, as the Department has done, is removed by using RP2. It can be implemented incrementally—it is not all or nothing—and problems can be dealt with as they arise.

I fear that HS2 is a flawed project. There is no doubt that we have to improve our transport infrastructure, but I urge the Department to reconsider RP2, which is cheaper and more environmentally friendly. It would deal with the problems sooner and far more accurately than HS2.

I shall conclude with a final call to action. The original mandate of HS2 Ltd was to look at the feasibility of, and the business case for, a new high-speed rail line between London and the west midlands, and to consider the case for high-speed rail services linking London, northern England and Scotland. Because of that mandate, HS2 Ltd inevitably has a vested interested in seeing HS2 built. For the credibility of the project, the Department should undertake an independent comparison of the merits of HS2 versus RP2. Legitimate concerns have been ignored because of the insistence that opposition is just nimbysm. We must put that aside and have a rigorous debate on how to achieve our shared goals while getting the greatest bang for our buck. Thank you, Mr Walker.

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

I am pleased to follow the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom). This is, indeed, a most important debate, and I would like to thank the hon. Member for Wellingborough (Mr Bone), who is a member of the Backbench Business Committee, for giving it to us. As he made clear, we had wished for a debate on the Floor of the House, and he almost promised us one once we are further into the consultation period. I am pleased to see such a good cross-party alliance forming here against HS2, and I hope briefly to follow the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire in setting out some of the reasons why it is a monumental waste of money and diversion of scarce resources.

I assure my hon. Friends who represent certain London and home counties constituencies, and others such as my right hon. Friend the Member for Coventry North East (Mr Ainsworth), that those who oppose HS2 absolutely recognise the need for more capacity. We recognise that greater connectivity would be of great benefit, but we believe—I agree here with the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire—that Rail Package 2, which was worked out by Atkins, as the Minister knows, offers a much better prospect for being able to do that in a shorter time and on a much more cost-effective basis than HS2. I will say a few more things about that in a moment, if I may.

Those who represent Manchester and Leeds will naturally have an interest in seeing their constituents and businesses able to come down to London much more quickly than they can at present. I urge them to read about and get into the alternatives in RP2. It does most of what they could reasonably expect, given the scarcity of resources for capital projects, and all other areas of revenue expenditure as well, that this country faces in this difficult period.

The project mysteriously appeared at the tail end of the previous Government’s tenure of office, and was somehow or other—remarkably quickly—brought to the fore by Lord Adonis. One has to congratulate him on his coup in that respect. To many people, it came out of the blue, and provided the preponderant Tory part of the present Government with a marvellous reason for being able to cover their strange decision against the Heathrow extension—I know that many people had an interest in it. They managed to cover it by being able to say that they would replace it with HS2 going up to Birmingham and on to the north. It does not really do that at all. It is a great pity that the coalition Government missed the opportunity at least to subject this huge expenditure to a proper review. Instead, they jumped on the bandwagon to justify their stance over Heathrow.

As for the justification for HS2, I pay tribute to the work done by the HS2 Action Alliance against the project and I recommend its papers to everyone in the debate—I am sure some of them will be available, and Members should study them. For those of us who are against the project, it is a relief not to have to fix the numbers or to choose the numbers that suit our case best, as all Governments and Oppositions do, because every time we look at the Government’s numbers, they collapse. The Department for Transport brought some numbers out last March, and they brought some more out this year. Every time they bring numbers out and we examine them—there is no party political point in this—they are downgraded, just like current Government forecasts. At the end of my speech I will return to the point about what the Government should do in the present situation.

If one adopts some realistic assumptions on demand for HS1 and on the time benefit, the net benefit ratio is now down to 50p per pound spent. No time currently spent travelling by rail is counted at all, but the entire time spent on HS1 is counted at an annual rate of £70,000 a year, and every minute is brought into the so-called net benefit ratio. That is a monstrous distortion. One does not have to calculate other figures; one simply has to expose what the Government and the Department are up to.

Another point that has been made is that there is no alternative. I will deal with the subsidiary points in a moment. As I said, there is an alternative: it is called Rail Package 2, and it is in the Atkins alternatives. Before the Department published the revised forecast earlier this month, we urged it to study RP2. Instead, it bundled it together with two or three inadequate alternatives and tried to tar them all with the same brush. What we need the Government to do—they have made a useful start in this respect—is to set up an office to objectively and independently consider major infrastructure projects, in the same way that they set up the Office for Budget Responsibility. We do not have such an office, and nobody has looked at this issue other than the Government and the Department, whose minds are set in favour of HS2. What we are embarking on is not consultation; those who are against the project and those who are in favour of it can put their points, and ne’er the twain shall meet. The outcome, of course, will be a Division in the House in due course.

The Government are not listening; their mind is made up. Instead of just putting forward the same old flawed figures, why do they not look at the situation again, study RP2 objectively, try to develop it and see what alternatives emerge? They should do that productively and positively, not so that they can dismiss RP2 before they have made a decent analysis of it.

[Mrs Villiers]

I am sure I am not going to convince the hon. Gentleman on everything, but I hope that I can convince him that the Government have an open mind on this issue. We are listening to the concerns that are being expressed now and that will be expressed during the consultation. That is one reason why about half the route we inherited from our predecessors has been altered with a view to mitigating its local environmental impact.

[Mr Robinson]

I am grateful to the Minister. I hope that we can take that assurance at face value, as we are meant to. The test will be whether the Department is prepared objectively to get into the detail of RP2, because it has not done so yet. The Government should just study the papers produced by the HS2 Action Alliance and look at where they have tried to conflate a whole set of different alternatives. The Government and the Department—not the Minister, of course—should look at where they have tried to obfuscate the obvious advantages of RP2. From being 25% of the capital cost of HS2, RP2 has suddenly become 50%. That is all about the sudden increase in the cost of the rolling stock for RP2. Why has that happened? Can the Minister answer that basic question? After all, the Government say that they have studied this objectively.

[Mrs Villiers]

There are two different ways to analyse RP2, one of which involves purchasing rolling stock and one of which involves leasing it. That may be the source of the hon. Gentleman’s confusion.

[Mr Robinson]

We have suddenly gone from finding rolling stock available to having to purchase it. The change is not justified; it is not even spelled out. People will have their houses razed and they will suffer enormously. Every taxpayer will have to pay well over £1,000 towards HS2, but there is no real justification for this project yet.

If the Department is serious, if it wants to get back some credibility with those who look at these issues and if it wants to justify a real national case to people, including some in my constituency, as well as citizens elsewhere in Coventry and in Stoke, who will simply be bypassed and have a much worse service from HS2—businesses in Coventry will be adamantly against it, and those in Leeds and Manchester can no doubt be brought to say that they are, too—the least it can do is set up a proper inquiry into the business case for HS2 and explain why RP2 would not be a far better alternative or, at the very minimum, a valid alternative.

Conversations with Centro have made it clear that we need the added capacity, and no one in the debate has any doubt that HS2 would provide it, but at what cost? It will cost £18 billion to Birmingham and £30 billion to Manchester and Leeds. The cost per job created will be £600,000, which is monstrous. It has been said that that is about four times more than a normal job, for which the cost is £150,000, but even that figure is a gross exaggeration, and infrastructure projects can create jobs elsewhere in the economy at a much lower cost. The figure of £600,000 is mind-blowing.

Incidentally, I cannot imagine where the Treasury is on this. It has never been known to be terribly favourable to transport projects—on the contrary. It is also notorious for cutting waste and stopping projects that do not have a proper financial justification. How has the Department managed to convince the Prime Minister and now the Chancellor that it is in favour of the project? I cannot imagine why the Treasury has not stopped it. The only reason can be that the Government need something to explain why they have come out—this was purely for electoral reasons—against the development of Heathrow.

--- Later in debate ---

[Dan Byles]

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) on securing the debate after months of dogged perseverance, along with myself and the hon. Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson), and for her tour de force of a speech, which I think we all agree made the points very eloquently. I am also delighted to see Mr Speaker here; he obviously has a great interest in the matter.

The high number of Members attending demonstrates the importance of the issue, not just to those whose constituencies are affected, but to the entire country. It also clearly demonstrates the need for a full debate on the matter on the Floor of the House before the end of the consultation period. This involves a huge sum of money on a hugely important national infrastructure project. I believe it deserves full debate and discussion by the House.

Due to the large number of Members wishing to speak, and in particular due to the excellent job that my hon. Friend made in pointing out the serious flaws in the business case, I will not speak for too long. I see no need to repeat many of the points that have been made. We have heard that the net benefit ratio is potentially lower than some of the alternatives that we do not believe have been adequately explored. The NBR depends on extremely optimistic passenger growth numbers over which there are serious questions. As the hon. Member for Coventry North West said, we know that the Department for Transport’s record on estimating passenger numbers for HS1 was frankly diabolical. To risk £17 billion of taxpayers’ money on what might be equally diabolical passenger forecast numbers would be very wrong, without considerably more work being done.

I oppose the proposal in respect of the national business case. However, I would also like to point out my serious concern about the possible impact of the project on the regions. There has been a lot of discussion and talk about the benefits of rebalancing the economy and pushing economic growth from the south-east to the regions. That is often used as a principal argument in favour of this project. However, I do not believe that the Department or HS2 Ltd have adequately analysed the evidence from existing high-speed rail networks in other countries. The impact assessments produced by HS2 Ltd clearly demonstrate that one of the costs of HS2 will be slower and less frequent train services for some of the surrounding towns and cities—a point made by my hon. Friend the Member for Banbury (Tony Baldry). I am less shy than the hon. Member for Coventry North West in saying that Coventry will see its direct rail services potentially slashed from three to one an hour. The remaining one will be slower.

[Mrs Villiers]

That is simply not true. There are some indicative forecasts in the HS2 analysis about how services might be configured in future. The reality is that Coventry is going to continue to enjoy frequent fast services. With HS2, it gets additional capacity for other journey opportunities, in particular, commuters get vital relief from overcrowding and lack of reliability as a result of overcrowding on the network.

[Dan Byles]

I am delighted to hear the Minister say that that is not true.

--- Later in debate ---

[Frank Dobson]

I entirely agree with my hon. Friend. Another point is the connection with HS1. We are told that great strategists with vinegar-soaked towels around their heads came up with HS2 as the first stage of a great, high-speed rail network. They seemed not to notice that they had not proposed a connection with the only existing part of the high-speed rail network, High Speed 1, which comes into St Pancras station.

[Mrs Villiers]

I assure the right hon. Gentleman that the mistake that the previous Government made in not providing for a link between domestic and international services has been remedied by the current Government; such a link is part of our plans.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Slaughter]

I shall say a word in favour of nimbyism in a moment.

Yes, it is true that my constituency will suffer no loss of property, and I am obviously delighted by the fact. Indeed, 5,000 jobs and a minimum of 1,600 homes will be created by the new infrastructure. It will be a positive development in one of the most deprived areas of the country—White City, Shepherds Bush and Old Oak. I should say that I live five minutes from there, but it will put my constituents 10 minutes from Heathrow and just over 40 minutes from Birmingham. These are the sort of projects of which the country used to be proud, and it used to seek mitigation for them rather than avoiding them altogether on the basis that such decisions are difficult to make.

Having said that, I believe that the project is good not only because the route and the interchange have some parochial benefit but because they give direct access to the Great Western line, Crossrail, the Heathrow express and HS1 just a few minutes outside central London. That is an improvement.

I have two caveats for the Minister, if she will take the advice. First, the Government need to look for friends wherever they can, but they have not done that so far. Last year’s debate was on 11 March, almost a year ago, and the Minister was then Opposition spokesman. Her aggressive stance rather belied the fact that she supported the announcement made by Lord Adonis. Her questions then are ones that she could answer today. She asked:

“Will they match our commitment to start work immediately on taking the line beyond Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds as part of stage 1?...Why will they not match our commitment to start construction by 2015? What guarantees can they give that fares will be kept within the reach of ordinary families on modest incomes?”

Those are all questions that the Minister might want to answer today. Rather churlishly I thought, she then said about Old Oak:

“Although we do not rule out use of that site for dispersal, the idea that some kind of ‘Wormwood Scrubs international’ station is the best rail solution for Heathrow is just not credible.”— [Official Report, 11 March 2010; Vol. 507-08, c. 450.]

I remind the Minister of this every time the subject comes up, and I know that she is happy to eat those words.

[Mrs Villiers]

rose—

[Mr Slaughter]

I shall give way in a moment. So that bygones can be bygones perhaps the Minister will say, “I would be delighted if it was called Wormwood Scrubs International” when she comes to open it.

[Mrs Villiers]

It would be a pleasure. I hope that the hon. Gentleman is aware that the Government’s proposals include a direct link to Heathrow as part of phase 2 of the project.

[Mr Slaughter]

Absolutely, but that was always in Lord Adonis’ mind. The report that he commissioned from Lord Mawhinney clearly said that Old Oak was an appropriate, good-quality terminus and connection point to the airport, and pointed out that the Conservatives’ previous scheme of having the interchange at Heathrow would cost between £2 billion and £4 billion more; he effectively rubbished that scheme in favour of the Adonis project, which is what we have gone back to.

As I say, we should let bygones be bygones—except for this point. When the Secretary of State launched the scheme on 20 December, he made a statement in the House without presenting Members with plans and documents, so we were entirely in the dark. He went to Old Oak and launched the scheme that morning, giving notice to everyone, including the Conservative party, but not the constituency MP. The Minister and HS2 are rather short of friends at the moment, and they should look to cultivate people a little more if they wish to continue to have them speak out on their behalf.

As far as I am aware—other Members may have seen it—there is no HS2 briefing for this debate. I had no correspondence until I approached HS2 about a visit to the site. The consultation is not adequate. The only consultation for my constituents is to be held at the Westfield shopping centre, which is a long way from the site and an entirely inappropriate location, for one day; it happens to be tomorrow. If the Minister has some influence, she could take the message back to High Speed 2 that it is not making friends through its their approach.

A more serious point is this. Notwithstanding what I said in response to the hon. Member for Banbury (Tony Baldry) about the effect on individual constituencies, mitigation will be the key to the project’s success. That applies to my constituency, as much of the tunnelling will take place from the Old Oak interchange. When it comes to the disposal of spoil, the road network in the area is entirely inadequate given the traffic that will be generated. We may not have anything quite like the Chilterns in Shepherds Bush, but we do have Wormwood Scrubs. It is a large open space that is ecologically sensitive, and I have been protecting it not for years but for many decades. If HS2 and the Government wish to have, if not their support, then at least the acquiescence of hon. Members, they need to go a lot further.

--- Later in debate ---

[The Minister of State, Department for Transport (Mrs Theresa Villiers)]

It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Walker. This has been an excellent, high-quality debate, with some great contributions from hon. Members from all parties, and I congratulate them all. I congratulate the hon. Members who secured the debate: my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom), the hon. Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson), and my hon. Friend the Member for North Warwickshire (Dan Byles).

I welcome what seems to be qualified support from the shadow Minister; we are not quite sure where he is going on this matter. I reassure him that we are fully committed to taking high-speed rail to Leeds and Manchester. We were the first to champion that in opposition, and we continue to do so. In response to a number of questions, let me say that work is under way on route and station options for the route north of Birmingham. HS2 Ltd has been asked to report to the Secretary of State on those options later this year.

It is good to see my right hon. Friend the Member for Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Mr Randall), and my hon. Friends the Members for Lichfield (Michael Fabricant), and for Kenilworth and Southam (Jeremy Wright), here. They have all been assiduous in pressing their concerns on Government and representing their constituents fully. Their frequent representations have been much valued by the Secretary of State and continue to have an influential impact on our thinking.

Let me turn to the points raised in debate. First, on the local environmental impact, let me make it clear that I fully recognise the concerns of those whose homes and communities could be affected by the preferred line of route. Responding to the concerns of the hon. Member for Coventry North West, we are putting a huge amount of work in to mitigate and reduce the potential impact. Approximately half the length of the preferred route to the west midlands in the plans we inherited has been changed. We have added more than a mile and half of green tunnels to maintain local access and minimise noise and visual impact.

Large sections of the routes have been lowered into deeper cuttings, reducing the number of viaducts to cut down on visual intrusion. We have made several route alterations to avoid settlements and important heritage sites. Under the revised proposals, the Chilterns will be crossed predominantly in tunnels and deep cuttings, or alongside the existing A413 transport corridor. The number of properties where high noise levels will be expected has fallen from about 350 in previous versions of the plans to around 10 properties, and we will plant 2 million trees between Birmingham and London. We will continue to listen to ideas for mitigation as part of the consultation process, at the end of which we will carefully consider all representations.

Let me turn to the points on the business case. On the criticisms made by my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire in relation to our passenger growth figures, the consultation document forecasts that passenger demand will roughly double for long-distance services on the west coast main line. That projection covers 30 years and is based on modest growth rates of just under 2% a year; that compares to a 5% growth rate between 1994 and 2009. If anything, the numbers are cautious. For example, demand between London and Manchester rose by almost 60% over the four years to 2008.

My hon. Friend the Member for Tamworth (Christopher Pincher) expressed concern about the methodology in relation to other industry practices. There is widespread industry consensus, as highlighted by the both the shadow Minister and my hon. Friend the Member for Manchester, Withington (Mr Leech), that the west coast main line will be full within around a decade; some people think sooner, some later, but there is consensus that the line is filling up fast.

My hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire also expressed the concern, in her eloquent and well-argued contribution, that our analysis does not take account of the fact that time can be used productively on a train. We have listened, and we have carried out sensitivity testing on our numbers, and the results we have had indicate that factoring in productive time would have a broadly neutral impact on the business case for HS2, because failing to deliver a new line would leave trains more and more overcrowded, making it less and less feasible to do any productive work on the trains currently on our network.

As for the allegation made by one or two hon. Members that we are proposing a rich man’s railway, and the concerns expressed about fares by the hon. Member for Hammersmith (Mr Slaughter) and the shadow Minister, our research indicates that 70% of passengers would be travelling for reasons other than business, with leisure trips particularly important. All our modelling is based on fares that are in line with existing services. Our assumptions about the expected fare-box do not factor in or depend on any premium for high-speed services.

The hon. Member for Luton North (Kelvin Hopkins) and other hon. Members expressed concern that the project would see the rest of our railways starved of funds. There is simply no evidence to back that allegation. On the contrary, despite a crisis in the public finances as grave as any that this country has faced in its peacetime history, the coalition is investing more than £30 billion in road, rail and local transport schemes throughout Britain over the next four years, and that includes the most extensive programme of rail upgrades in modern history, to which was recently added the Ordsall Chord scheme, which was welcomed by my hon. Friend the Member for Manchester, Withington.

Budgets have not been set beyond 2015, but we expect the case for investment in transport to continue to be strong in the years ahead, as evidenced by the commitments that we have made on Thameslink, Crossrail, electrification, the intercity express programme, and road improvements that stretch beyond the current spending review period.

A key element in the crux of the arguments by opponents of HS2 is the question of whether journey time savings delivered by high-speed rail will be worth the cost of building the new line. The Government’s proposals, as hon. Members have pointed out this afternoon, are about more than just speed. One of the biggest advantages of our plans is that a new line would release additional capacity on our existing railways, benefiting places such as Coventry and Milton Keynes, as my hon. Friend the Member for Weaver Vale (Graham Evans) pointed out. That would help to address crowding problems for long-distance passengers, and provide more space for commuter services and the freight services that the hon. Member for Luton North championed so well, and it would also improve network resilience and reliability.

[Mr Ainsworth]

I recognise what the Minister says about Coventry. The city is split, and the council is opposed, as is my hon. Friend the Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson), but I cannot understand how it would be damaged by being only eight miles to the east of what would be the country’s major transport spine. The benefits are clear for anyone who wants to see them.

[Mrs Villiers]

The right hon. Gentleman puts the case very well. Coventry stands to benefit hugely from the plans under consideration this afternoon. Journey time savings matter. For example, the Y network would enable people living in Manchester and Leeds to get to Canary Wharf in roughly one hour and 40 minutes, and Heathrow in 75 minutes or less. I assure the shadow Minister that the plans for phase 2 include the direct link to Heathrow that we called for in opposition.

I believe that bringing the capital within 49 minutes of Birmingham and 80 minutes of Manchester and Leeds would spread the massive benefits of London’s global pull. It would do more to bridge the north-south divide than virtually all previous efforts to address a problem that has defied solution for decades, which is probably one reason why so many people north of Birmingham support the project so strongly.

[Mr Robinson]

The Minister spoke about regional benefits, and we increasingly see the Secretary of State and the Prime Minister emphasising in person the north-south divide. First, how does she explain the fact that of the jobs created—about 30,000—seven in 10 will be in London, not the regions? Secondly, does she really believe that £600,000 a job is good regional investment policy?

[Mrs Villiers]

The project will create jobs throughout the country. The suggestion that all the cities that are calling for high-speed rail will see their economic growth sucked away by London just does not hold water. Look around Europe, where cities such as Lille and Lyons have been transformed. In Europe and Asia, cities are fighting hard to be on the high-speed rail networks that other countries have the courage and determination to deliver.

[Andrea Leadsom]

Does my right hon. Friend accept that unemployment in Lille rose after high-speed rail went there?

[Mrs Villiers]

What I know is that Lille’s prospects were transformed by high-speed rail, and its unemployment level fell to much closer to the French average. If people in Lille were asked whether high-speed rail was bad for them, or whether they would like it to be shut down, I suspect that they would say no.

As my hon. Friend the Member for Pudsey (Stuart Andrew) said, shrinking journeys between cities in the north will have a hugely beneficial impact, enabling them increasingly to merge into a single economic area. I emphasise that with its potential to regenerate regional economies, create thousands of jobs, and boost our national economy by about £44 billion, the project is about much more than shaving half an hour off the journey time to Birmingham.

That brings me to the next allegation—that the project is not affordable. In practice, most of the spending will not kick in for at least five years, so it is not competing directly with other priorities in the current period of austerity. Spending will then be phased in over the period of construction, which we all know is, sadly, a long one. The annual average cost will not be out of line with projects such as Crossrail, as my hon. Friend the Member for Weaver Vale pointed out. The figures in the consultation document also make no allowance for possible private sector contributions, which could be considerable, as hon. Members have pointed out, particularly in relation to the expected benefits of station redevelopment.

Perhaps most important is that delivering a major uplift in inter-urban transport capacity is not some nice-to-have luxury. It is absolutely essential if we are to prevent a capacity crisis on the west coast line and other key transport corridors in the years to come. No Government can afford to sit back, ignore the problem, and pretend that it does not exist.

Despite the valiant efforts of my hon. Friends the Members for South Northamptonshire, and for North Warwickshire, and the hon. Member for Coventry North West, the opponents of HS2 have not made a convincing case that there is a better way of dealing with the expected growth in demand for inter-city travel. My hon. Friend the Member for Warwick and Leamington (Chris White) suggested that information technology will provide the answer. I certainly hope that future advances in technology will make video-conferencing an alternative to more journeys, but I am afraid that after in-depth research, the Committee on Climate Change concluded that the net impact of such technology on travel is likely to be minimal, and I am afraid that improvements to the existing network just cannot provide the capacity that HS2 would. The Government are already committed to delivering a 30% uplift in capacity on the west coast line, with new carriages being introduced from April 2012, but that will simply not be enough to meet the demand for inter-city travel in the decades to come.

In response to the shadow Minister’s question about the capacity to deliver, HS2 would deliver 14 trains an hour, each of which would have about 1,100 seats. RP2 simply will not meet the future needs of this country’s transport system. The practical realities of further work on the existing line have a serious downside. As the right hon. Member for Coventry North East (Mr Ainsworth) said, passengers were subjected to a decade of disruption with the improvements to the west coast line, which have just been completed.

For the information of my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire, the work required at Euston for RP2 would be considerably more disruptive than those required there for HS2, because they would have to be carried out within Euston’s current footprint, making it much more difficult to keep current services going. Disruption would be much worse this time, because the west coast line is twice as busy as it was seven years ago.

The most viable journey time savings that could be achieved using the existing line would involve cutting out intermediate stops, which we all know would be deeply upsetting for the affected communities. Moreover, line upgrades cannot deliver any released capacity benefits, and squeezing even more into the current timetable to allow more intense use of the line would compromise resilience, and is virtually guaranteed to lead to a serious deterioration in reliability. In contrast, infrastructure-related delays on HS1 average just 6.8 seconds. The simple truth is that whatever is done to the existing line, it could never match the economic benefits of faster journey times, capacity uplift, and regeneration that HS2 would deliver.

The hon. Member for Dunfermline and West Fife (Thomas Docherty) called for leadership in delivering the project, and we intend to provide that. He asked whether appropriate rolling-stock designs were available. Our research and analysis is based on rolling stock that is already in use in the many countries that have embarked on high-speed rail. My hon. Friend the Member for Weaver Vale pointed out that the high-speed rail link is a manifesto promise, and it is one that we intend to keep. My hon. Friend the Member for Tamworth expressed concern about the current status of compensation, and I assure him that the exceptional hardship scheme is already in operation.

Lastly, I will address the allegation that high-speed rail is not green and offers no environmental benefits. Our analysis shows that the shift from road and aviation that would come with delivering the west midlands section of the line would broadly offset any increase in carbon emissions from the new line, despite the significant increase in passenger journeys that it would accommodate. We would get a major economic boost without increasing carbon emissions, which is just the sort of sustainable growth most people in the country say we should have. The modal shift resulting from the Y-shaped network to the north of England would be greater still, with as many as 6 million journeys by air and 9 million by road expected to migrate to rail. The carbon benefits of rail over aviation are set to grow as we make progress on decarbonising the electricity supply.

The consultation under way is one of the most wide-ranging ever undertaken. We will listen to and consider all responses with care, including those that will help us further mitigate potential local impact, which I know hon. Members are concerned about. I genuinely believe that with care, effort and high-quality engineering, we can address the worst local impacts and provide much-needed reassurance to the constituents of hon. Members who have taken part in the debate. Similar things were done for HS1.

Today, we still rely almost entirely on railways built by the Victorians, and I think it is time we started catching up with the high-speed rail revolution on which our European partners embarked more than a generation ago. I believe that we can—and should—aspire to the sort of high-quality long-distance travel network that other countries take for granted. Our high-speed rail plans provide a once-in-a-generation chance to address the transport capacity needs of our economy in the future, transform our economic geography, and generate a boost for jobs and growth worth billions of pounds. We know that it will not be an easy process, but we should not let this opportunity slip through our fingers. I have welcomed the opportunity to set some of our plans before the House this afternoon.

Question put and agreed to.