High-Speed Rail

Geoffrey Robinson Excerpts

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Mr Geoffrey Robinson (Coventry North West) (Lab)]

I am pleased to follow the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom). This is, indeed, a most important debate, and I would like to thank the hon. Member for Wellingborough (Mr Bone), who is a member of the Backbench Business Committee, for giving it to us. As he made clear, we had wished for a debate on the Floor of the House, and he almost promised us one once we are further into the consultation period. I am pleased to see such a good cross-party alliance forming here against HS2, and I hope briefly to follow the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire in setting out some of the reasons why it is a monumental waste of money and diversion of scarce resources.

I assure my hon. Friends who represent certain London and home counties constituencies, and others such as my right hon. Friend the Member for Coventry North East (Mr Ainsworth), that those who oppose HS2 absolutely recognise the need for more capacity. We recognise that greater connectivity would be of great benefit, but we believe—I agree here with the hon. Member for South Northamptonshire—that Rail Package 2, which was worked out by Atkins, as the Minister knows, offers a much better prospect for being able to do that in a shorter time and on a much more cost-effective basis than HS2. I will say a few more things about that in a moment, if I may.

Those who represent Manchester and Leeds will naturally have an interest in seeing their constituents and businesses able to come down to London much more quickly than they can at present. I urge them to read about and get into the alternatives in RP2. It does most of what they could reasonably expect, given the scarcity of resources for capital projects, and all other areas of revenue expenditure as well, that this country faces in this difficult period.

The project mysteriously appeared at the tail end of the previous Government’s tenure of office, and was somehow or other—remarkably quickly—brought to the fore by Lord Adonis. One has to congratulate him on his coup in that respect. To many people, it came out of the blue, and provided the preponderant Tory part of the present Government with a marvellous reason for being able to cover their strange decision against the Heathrow extension—I know that many people had an interest in it. They managed to cover it by being able to say that they would replace it with HS2 going up to Birmingham and on to the north. It does not really do that at all. It is a great pity that the coalition Government missed the opportunity at least to subject this huge expenditure to a proper review. Instead, they jumped on the bandwagon to justify their stance over Heathrow.

As for the justification for HS2, I pay tribute to the work done by the HS2 Action Alliance against the project and I recommend its papers to everyone in the debate—I am sure some of them will be available, and Members should study them. For those of us who are against the project, it is a relief not to have to fix the numbers or to choose the numbers that suit our case best, as all Governments and Oppositions do, because every time we look at the Government’s numbers, they collapse. The Department for Transport brought some numbers out last March, and they brought some more out this year. Every time they bring numbers out and we examine them—there is no party political point in this—they are downgraded, just like current Government forecasts. At the end of my speech I will return to the point about what the Government should do in the present situation.

If one adopts some realistic assumptions on demand for HS1 and on the time benefit, the net benefit ratio is now down to 50p per pound spent. No time currently spent travelling by rail is counted at all, but the entire time spent on HS1 is counted at an annual rate of £70,000 a year, and every minute is brought into the so-called net benefit ratio. That is a monstrous distortion. One does not have to calculate other figures; one simply has to expose what the Government and the Department are up to.

Another point that has been made is that there is no alternative. I will deal with the subsidiary points in a moment. As I said, there is an alternative: it is called Rail Package 2, and it is in the Atkins alternatives. Before the Department published the revised forecast earlier this month, we urged it to study RP2. Instead, it bundled it together with two or three inadequate alternatives and tried to tar them all with the same brush. What we need the Government to do—they have made a useful start in this respect—is to set up an office to objectively and independently consider major infrastructure projects, in the same way that they set up the Office for Budget Responsibility. We do not have such an office, and nobody has looked at this issue other than the Government and the Department, whose minds are set in favour of HS2. What we are embarking on is not consultation; those who are against the project and those who are in favour of it can put their points, and ne’er the twain shall meet. The outcome, of course, will be a Division in the House in due course.

The Government are not listening; their mind is made up. Instead of just putting forward the same old flawed figures, why do they not look at the situation again, study RP2 objectively, try to develop it and see what alternatives emerge? They should do that productively and positively, not so that they can dismiss RP2 before they have made a decent analysis of it.

[Mrs Villiers]

I am sure I am not going to convince the hon. Gentleman on everything, but I hope that I can convince him that the Government have an open mind on this issue. We are listening to the concerns that are being expressed now and that will be expressed during the consultation. That is one reason why about half the route we inherited from our predecessors has been altered with a view to mitigating its local environmental impact.

[Mr Robinson]

I am grateful to the Minister. I hope that we can take that assurance at face value, as we are meant to. The test will be whether the Department is prepared objectively to get into the detail of RP2, because it has not done so yet. The Government should just study the papers produced by the HS2 Action Alliance and look at where they have tried to conflate a whole set of different alternatives. The Government and the Department—not the Minister, of course—should look at where they have tried to obfuscate the obvious advantages of RP2. From being 25% of the capital cost of HS2, RP2 has suddenly become 50%. That is all about the sudden increase in the cost of the rolling stock for RP2. Why has that happened? Can the Minister answer that basic question? After all, the Government say that they have studied this objectively.

[Mrs Villiers]

There are two different ways to analyse RP2, one of which involves purchasing rolling stock and one of which involves leasing it. That may be the source of the hon. Gentleman’s confusion.

[Mr Robinson]

We have suddenly gone from finding rolling stock available to having to purchase it. The change is not justified; it is not even spelled out. People will have their houses razed and they will suffer enormously. Every taxpayer will have to pay well over £1,000 towards HS2, but there is no real justification for this project yet.

If the Department is serious, if it wants to get back some credibility with those who look at these issues and if it wants to justify a real national case to people, including some in my constituency, as well as citizens elsewhere in Coventry and in Stoke, who will simply be bypassed and have a much worse service from HS2—businesses in Coventry will be adamantly against it, and those in Leeds and Manchester can no doubt be brought to say that they are, too—the least it can do is set up a proper inquiry into the business case for HS2 and explain why RP2 would not be a far better alternative or, at the very minimum, a valid alternative.

Conversations with Centro have made it clear that we need the added capacity, and no one in the debate has any doubt that HS2 would provide it, but at what cost? It will cost £18 billion to Birmingham and £30 billion to Manchester and Leeds. The cost per job created will be £600,000, which is monstrous. It has been said that that is about four times more than a normal job, for which the cost is £150,000, but even that figure is a gross exaggeration, and infrastructure projects can create jobs elsewhere in the economy at a much lower cost. The figure of £600,000 is mind-blowing.

Incidentally, I cannot imagine where the Treasury is on this. It has never been known to be terribly favourable to transport projects—on the contrary. It is also notorious for cutting waste and stopping projects that do not have a proper financial justification. How has the Department managed to convince the Prime Minister and now the Chancellor that it is in favour of the project? I cannot imagine why the Treasury has not stopped it. The only reason can be that the Government need something to explain why they have come out—this was purely for electoral reasons—against the development of Heathrow.

[Graham Evans]

Perhaps the fact that the Chancellor is a northern MP has something to do with that. However, on the previous point, Lord Adonis said that the likes of Rail Package 2 would be a classic British compromise and a mistake.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Robinson]

We have these generalisations, and people talk about a classic British compromise. We have all these platitudinous, stupid arguments, with people saying, “The Germans have one”, “We’ve got one” and “My dad’s bigger than your dad.” I have never heard anything so daft. We should look at the facts and figures and study these things objectively. If the hon. Gentleman cannot, the people in the Department can.

One Government Member has said that the terms of reference mean that the whole process has been hijacked by the pro-HS2 lobby, and there it has stayed. Nothing else has been analysed objectively. The OBR was set up to make sure that the Government’s general finances, economic policy and investments at the national level that are unrelated to infrastructure are properly evaluated, and the case for doing the same for infrastructure projects is stronger still. The Government should introduce such a body, and I would commend them if they did.

The green case has also collapsed. There is no net benefit in terms of the reduction in carbon from the scheme. The movement from air traffic constitutes only 7% of the eventual traffic to be carried on HS2, which is terribly small. Most importantly, this project is so long term that all the forecasts are meaningless; they have to be. Many of us will have heard Robert Chote on the “Tonight” programme saying that forecasts are very difficult. Robert Chote has all the power of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and all the stuff that he has brought into the new OBR, but the OBR has not got a forecast right from the Budget last June, to last November’s pre-Budget report, to the Budget this month. In about 10 months, it has changed its mind three times. To justify their demand forecasts, the Government have pushed them out 35 years; they have added 10 years on to get the volume increase they need to justify the project. What they are doing is so obvious, and that sort of stupidity is invalidating their case and making all of us who will be affected by this project, including those whose homes will be torn up, increasingly angry.

[John Stevenson (Carlisle) (Con)]

The same could apply to the hon. Gentleman’s forecasts. They could be underestimates as well. The economic benefits could be far greater than any of us anticipate.

[Mr Robinson]

That is a very fair point. It is difficult when one looks at such wildly different forecasts. One has to look at the history. Let us take demand forecasts for the rail industry. Nine out of 10 have been grossly exaggerated by at least twice. That is roughly the proportion we have between the conservative forecast and the Department for Transport’s forecast today. In the case of HS1, it has only just now, after nearly a decade of some sort of operation, reached the lowest level of forecast we ever thought remotely possible. As we know, HS1 has just been sold off as a dead loss, at a loss of £3 billion.

[John Stevenson]

On the west coast line the increase in traffic has been far beyond the forecasts made originally.

[Mr Robinson]

I do not think I can talk to that point. We come back to the fact that it can be done much more cheaply—I hope the Minister is listening. RP2 should be analysed and developed properly. It can also be done much earlier. In this period of difficult recovery, we need projects that generate growth and employment now. This is not going to come in—on the best of cases—until 2026 to Birmingham, and then it goes another 20 years beyond that. That is far too late. I was speaking to Geoff Inskip, managing director of Centro the other day, and he said we cannot wait so long, we need the increasing capacity now, as soon as possible. He is convinced that four-tracking between Coventry and Birmingham should be proceeded with forthwith. That is the first step towards RP2 and it should be taken now; we should not wait until 2026. That is an absurd proposition for meeting the country’s capacity needs for rail transport.

[Mr Ainsworth]

By raising the historical context, my hon. Friend is making a good case against every major infrastructure project that has ever been built. All the Victorian railway lines went broke; the channel tunnel never made any money; HS1 has just been exposed by my hon. Friend. Is he suggesting that we should never have built any railways, we should not have built the channel tunnel and we should not have built HS1? He appears to be saying that we can squeeze yet more—and there is a law of diminishing returns—out of the existing infrastructure. We have had years of disruption on the west coast main line for an upgrade. He is saying that huge benefit can be gained by yet more disruption to the existing lines.

[Mr Robinson]

That point was made earlier. My right hon. Friend asserts one thing that leads me to assert another. I believe it can be developed in that way. I believe it because the Atkins report, which also made a projection for the HS2 line, said it and worked it out in detail. It very clearly dealt with pinch points, length of trains, length of carriages, and calculated the number of problems it would create in disturbance on the line. We want it worked out and properly investigated by an independent body. That is what we need. Nobody is against it; we all want to extend the rail line. We all want to extend rail capacity and increase speeds.

[Tony Baldry (Banbury) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Robinson]

I will give way to the Minister in a second. RP2 will take us up to 136 mph, which many people think adequate.

[Tony Baldry]

In fact, I am a humble Back Bencher, and proud to be so. I do not wish to intrude in family grief in Coventry, but I think that the hon. Gentleman is failing to make his best point. His best point on behalf of Coventry should be a concern that HS2—which quite rightly, if it goes ahead, will connect certain cities in the country—is likely to be to the disadvantage of other cities, such as Coventry. He has not made that point in terms, and I am sure it is one he would wish to.

[Mr Robinson]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman. I was trying not to participate in nimbyism. I have been sworn not to do that. I make no apology: I am here to represent Coventry’s interest. Call me a nimby or whatever. I can find nothing in the proposal that brings any benefit to Coventry. I think that if my hon. Friend the Member for Stoke-on-Trent Central (Tristram Hunt) were here he would agree with that point. I can see that many others have a different point of view. We want capacity, we want modernisation, we believe we can get it, there is an alternative, and we want it evaluated. I cannot see what is wrong with that proposition. I cannot see how anyone could oppose it when, looking at capital costs on present forecasts, it would cost half of what HS1 cost.

[David Mowat]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Mr Robinson]

We have taken up a bit of time. The hon. Gentleman will have better use of his time if I curtail mine.

Welcome as a public consultation is, it is no more than an opportunity for the pros and cons to be stated on a large project on which the Government have already made up their mind. Opening up the mind is very good, and I appreciate what the Minister has said on that point. I have to warn all those who for personal and national reasons are joining us in opposition to HS2 that it is going to require a sustained, strong exercise in parliamentary and people power to get the Government to change their mind. Do not underestimate the difficulties we all face in that respect.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mrs Villiers]

The right hon. Gentleman puts the case very well. Coventry stands to benefit hugely from the plans under consideration this afternoon. Journey time savings matter. For example, the Y network would enable people living in Manchester and Leeds to get to Canary Wharf in roughly one hour and 40 minutes, and Heathrow in 75 minutes or less. I assure the shadow Minister that the plans for phase 2 include the direct link to Heathrow that we called for in opposition.

I believe that bringing the capital within 49 minutes of Birmingham and 80 minutes of Manchester and Leeds would spread the massive benefits of London’s global pull. It would do more to bridge the north-south divide than virtually all previous efforts to address a problem that has defied solution for decades, which is probably one reason why so many people north of Birmingham support the project so strongly.

[Mr Robinson]

The Minister spoke about regional benefits, and we increasingly see the Secretary of State and the Prime Minister emphasising in person the north-south divide. First, how does she explain the fact that of the jobs created—about 30,000—seven in 10 will be in London, not the regions? Secondly, does she really believe that £600,000 a job is good regional investment policy?

[Mrs Villiers]

The project will create jobs throughout the country. The suggestion that all the cities that are calling for high-speed rail will see their economic growth sucked away by London just does not hold water. Look around Europe, where cities such as Lille and Lyons have been transformed. In Europe and Asia, cities are fighting hard to be on the high-speed rail networks that other countries have the courage and determination to deliver.