High-Speed Rail

Dan Byles Excerpts

Thursday 31st March 2011 Westminster Hall

[Andrea Leadsom]

I agree absolutely with my hon. Friend. We desperately need to improve dramatically the capacity in our train infrastructure. I hope that she will bear with me, because I intend to show that we can achieve that without needing to spend the amount of money that we are talking about for high-speed rail.

[Dan Byles (North Warwickshire) (Con)]

On that point, lest people think that that argument means that this is somehow a green solution, is it not the case that any slots freed up at Heathrow from domestic airlines will be taken up by long-haul airlines, thus increasing not decreasing emissions?

[Andrea Leadsom]

Yes, indeed. There have been plenty of anecdotal reports from low-cost airlines suggesting that they would welcome the opportunity to put on more cheap long-haul flights.

I plan to challenge four aspects of the case for HS2: the business case, the environmental case, the claims about job creation and the potential for regeneration. I am a firm believer that one cannot attack something without providing an alternative. I will therefore also discuss a viable alternative to HS2. I have based my challenges on phase 1 of HS2, in spite of the fact, unfortunately, that the consultation incorporates the entire Y-shaped project. There is too little detail on the assumptions underlying phase 2 to be able to assess the figures properly. I also need to point out that the original business case, written by Atkins for the Department for Transport in March 2010, was updated last month. The new business case is considerably less attractive than the old one.

I will deal first with the business case for HS2. HS2 Ltd claims a net benefit ratio, which includes the wider economic impacts, of 2. That means that for every pound spent, there will be £2 of benefit. That is about the minimum return that could be expected from a rail project—the bar for roads projects is significantly higher. Even that modest claim, however, makes enormous assumptions. Specifically, one of the core and somewhat ludicrous assumptions is that all the time spent on a train journey is wasted, and therefore that every minute of a train journey that is saved can be given a value in pounds—the number of minutes saved, multiplied by the earnings of an individual. That would not matter so much except that the journey time savings account for more than 50% of the £20 billion of total economic benefit claimed for the project. I urge the Department for Transport to look again closely at that point.

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[Dan Byles]

I congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) on securing the debate after months of dogged perseverance, along with myself and the hon. Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson), and for her tour de force of a speech, which I think we all agree made the points very eloquently. I am also delighted to see Mr Speaker here; he obviously has a great interest in the matter.

The high number of Members attending demonstrates the importance of the issue, not just to those whose constituencies are affected, but to the entire country. It also clearly demonstrates the need for a full debate on the matter on the Floor of the House before the end of the consultation period. This involves a huge sum of money on a hugely important national infrastructure project. I believe it deserves full debate and discussion by the House.

Due to the large number of Members wishing to speak, and in particular due to the excellent job that my hon. Friend made in pointing out the serious flaws in the business case, I will not speak for too long. I see no need to repeat many of the points that have been made. We have heard that the net benefit ratio is potentially lower than some of the alternatives that we do not believe have been adequately explored. The NBR depends on extremely optimistic passenger growth numbers over which there are serious questions. As the hon. Member for Coventry North West said, we know that the Department for Transport’s record on estimating passenger numbers for HS1 was frankly diabolical. To risk £17 billion of taxpayers’ money on what might be equally diabolical passenger forecast numbers would be very wrong, without considerably more work being done.

I oppose the proposal in respect of the national business case. However, I would also like to point out my serious concern about the possible impact of the project on the regions. There has been a lot of discussion and talk about the benefits of rebalancing the economy and pushing economic growth from the south-east to the regions. That is often used as a principal argument in favour of this project. However, I do not believe that the Department or HS2 Ltd have adequately analysed the evidence from existing high-speed rail networks in other countries. The impact assessments produced by HS2 Ltd clearly demonstrate that one of the costs of HS2 will be slower and less frequent train services for some of the surrounding towns and cities—a point made by my hon. Friend the Member for Banbury (Tony Baldry). I am less shy than the hon. Member for Coventry North West in saying that Coventry will see its direct rail services potentially slashed from three to one an hour. The remaining one will be slower.

[Mrs Villiers]

That is simply not true. There are some indicative forecasts in the HS2 analysis about how services might be configured in future. The reality is that Coventry is going to continue to enjoy frequent fast services. With HS2, it gets additional capacity for other journey opportunities, in particular, commuters get vital relief from overcrowding and lack of reliability as a result of overcrowding on the network.

[Dan Byles]

I am delighted to hear the Minister say that that is not true.

[Andrea Leadsom]

I would like to make the point that it is not possible for my right hon. Friend to make that claim. The transport network is actually in the private sector. Therefore, if the rail operators find that they are losing revenue because there is no longer the overcrowding that there was because of the 65% transferral of passengers to high-speed rail, they will inevitably either put up fares or reduce services. The most likely outcome is a reduction of services, because fares are capped.

[Dan Byles]

I am grateful to my hon. Friend for making that point. The very fact that the Minister referred to indicative figures—they are out there in the public domain, are causing concern, and are often quoted—shows that we have not yet had sufficient discussion or debate about the impact. From a sedentary position, hon. Members have rubbished some of the claims for Rail Package 2, and say that work has been done and shows that some of our claims for it are simply not true. Where is that work? Why is it not being published? Why is the Department for Transport not addressing the questions that opponents of HS2 are asking? Instead, it is addressing motives, and using words such as “nimby” and so on instead of addressing arguments. The Department should address those questions, but it is not doing so adequately.

Of more concern is the fact that there is evidence from studies of existing high-speed rail services in other countries that, far from pushing economic growth from the centre to the regions, they may have the opposite effect. They may suck economic activity from the regions toward the centre. There is a real danger of economic growth draining away from, for example, Birmingham and the surrounding region towards London. The Research Institute of Applied Economics at the university of Barcelona studied existing high-speed rail networks in Japan, France, Germany, Spain and Italy. Its findings should cause policy makers in the UK to sit up and take notice. It suggested that smaller cities linked to larger cities by high-speed rail lines sometimes suffer from a negative agglomeration effect. That may take several forms, but the report is very clear about the risks for smaller cities such as Birmingham when linked to a larger city such as London.

I shall quote briefly from the report. It states:

“It is consistently reported that HSR does not generate any new activities nor does it attract new firms and investment, but rather it helps to consolidate and promote ongoing processes as well as to facilitate intra-organizational journeys for those firms and institutions for whom mobility is essential.”

It continues:

“In fact, for regions and cities whose economic conditions compare unfavorably with those of their neighbors, a connection to the HST line may even result in economic activities being drained away and an overall negative impact”

[Craig Whittaker]

The business people of Yorkshire are not particularly interested in rebalancing on a regional basis. All they want is a balanced playing field. It is unacceptable for Yorkshire businesses when competing in our capital in our country that it takes longer to get here than it takes the French and Belgians.

[Dan Byles]

I thank my hon. Friend for his intervention. It sounds ideal to suggest that linking the two systems will benefit the regions, but the university of Barcelona looked at high-speed rail systems on the continent, and found that the benefits often flow the other way. Economic activity might drain away from the north towards the south.

[Stephen Hammond (Wimbledon) (Con)]

I am listening carefully to the point that my hon. Friend is making. He will know, of course, that the 1970s experience in Japan is contrary to the findings of the study. More importantly and more locally, the study from the North West Business Leadership Team only yesterday points in a completely different direction from that in the Spanish study.

[Dan Byles]

I give way to my hon. Friend the Member for Warrington South (David Mowat)

[David Mowat]

I want to make the same point. A recent survey by the West Midlands Chamber of Commerce, which I think includes Coventry and north Warwickshire, estimated that there would be £6 billion of wider economic benefits. Does my hon. Friend not believe that some of that would go to his constituency?

[Dan Byles]

North Warwickshire council and, I believe, Warwick district council, as well as Warwickshire county council and Staffordshire county council, have all come out formally against the proposal. They obviously do not believe that there will be wider economic benefits for the midlands and their council areas.

The point made by my hon. Friend the Member for Wimbledon (Stephen Hammond) demonstrates that we need to do more work before spending 17 billion quid of taxpayers’ money. If some reports say one thing, and others say something else, where is the fundamental, independent, root and branch economic analysis of existing high-speed rail systems in other countries around the world? I genuinely do not believe that what HS2 and the Department for Transport published represents that.

[Stephen Hammond]

Will my hon. Friend say who would satisfy his classification of independence?

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[Dan Byles]

I am delighted that the Transport Committee has said that it would look at the matter. I have the greatest respect for the Select Committee system in the House, and I hope that the Transport Committee will take an independent view of the various economic evidence.

The fact is that there are high-speed rail systems in operation throughout the world, and some of the evidence from some of those systems suggests that the claims being made for high-speed rail’s ability to regenerate regions are questionable. I have not yet seen a fundamental or overarching review and analysis of existing systems. We can physically look at them, and measure the numbers and the impact, and some of those numbers are negative. We must discuss that, and analyse the figures before we spend the money.

[Damian Collins (Folkestone and Hythe) (Con)]

I am interested in my hon. Friend’s core argument that high-speed rail may suck economic growth from the regions, because that seems to run contrary to what most people lobbied for—greater speed of connection to the capital. Most places in the regions that have travel times to London of one hour or less market themselves heavily on the basis of the shorter journey time. They see it as a positive advantage, and that seems to run contrary to what the academics in Barcelona are saying.

[Mr Charles Walker (in the Chair)]

Order. I do not want to impede debate, but a huge number of hon. Members want to speak this afternoon.

[Dan Byles]

I will sum up with a quote from the conclusion of the report from the university of Barcelona, which looked at five high-speed rail systems around the world. It states;

“Finally, the economic impacts of HSR are somewhat limited. The largest cities in the network might receive limited gains, but this is not the case for intermediate cities, which might see economic activities being drained away and suffer an overall negative impact.”

The report is not definitive, but before we spend £17 billion of taxpayers’ money, the issues raised in it should be addressed. I will be delighted if the Transport Committee looks at that, and I shall certainly send it a copy. We must thoroughly understand what we are doing, because we could do untold damage to our country at very great cost if we do not get it right.

[Mr Charles Walker (in the Chair)]

Order. It is not within my powers to impose a time limit on debates, but hon. Members could look at the huge number of colleagues who want to speak and do the mathematics themselves—it is about six minutes each.

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[Graham Evans (Weaver Vale) (Con)]

I am grateful to you, Mr Walker, for calling me to speak. It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship.

First, I want to congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for South Northamptonshire (Andrea Leadsom) on securing this debate. I know that this issue is a major concern for her constituents and she is an extremely diligent campaigner who serves them well. I also regard her as a much-valued colleague.

I have been very keen to have the opportunity to debate the plans for high-speed rail. Indeed, just last month I called for this debate so that Members would have the chance to take on the misinformation that has been spread by the alliance of luddites and nimbys who oppose the plans. It appears that my comments sparked outrage in some quarters and I am truly sorry for that. I did not intend to cause offence. My only aim was to describe accurately the opponents of High Speed 2 and I firmly believe that my description of them was accurate.

That belief was compounded after I was bombarded by letters from furious people. Curiously enough, they all live very near to the proposed route for HS2 and many of them wore the “nimby” label unashamedly and with pride. Having said that, my favourite of those letters said:

“I am not a nimby, I just don’t want a railway line built near my house.”

Other letters suggested that northerners should be grateful that they already have a railway line and a motorway, and should stop complaining.

I could joke all day about the ridiculous comments made by nimbys, but on a serious note it is worrying when a very small group of people from a tiny slither of one of the wealthiest areas in the country seeks to thwart a major infrastructure project that would be of huge benefit to the whole country and that was a manifesto promise of all three main parties, which received a combined 88% share of the vote at the general election.

The nimbys are attempting to thwart the project by peddling a series of myths. First, they are trying to present the debate about high-speed rail as a false choice. They claim that, instead of funding HS2, we should focus on improving rail capacity, but the high-speed rail link will free up capacity for existing commuter lines and, crucially, for freight on a network that is already overstretched. Network Rail supports the plans for that reason, saying:

“HS2 solves the capacity challenge”.

That leads me neatly to the second myth, that doing nothing is an option. Our key rail routes are expected to be completely full in the next 20 years. Our international competitors are already ahead of the game and have invested heavily in high-speed rail. If we do not act now, we will be left behind and the long-term effects on our global competitiveness could be devastating.

Thirdly and most importantly for our nimby friends, let us deal with the myth that the proposals for high-speed rail will lead to the destruction of the countryside. The Government have rightly gone to considerable lengths to reduce noise and to minimise the number of properties that will be affected by the route. In total, 340 properties will be affected, 216 of which are in central London. Only 10 properties will suffer from high noise levels.

Next, let me answer those who claim that the business case has yet to be made for high-speed rail, despite conservative estimates that the project will have initial economic benefits of £43 billion and will create 40,000 jobs. I have already touched on the importance of high-speed rail to our international competitiveness, which is very hard to quantify. However, the benefits to businesses based in my constituency and the rest of the north are very clear.

[Dan Byles]

Does my hon. Friend accept that, in less than 12 months, the new business case has already halved the estimated economic benefit and that that does not give us a great deal of confidence in the business case as it stands, including the figures that he cites?

[Graham Evans]

I am most grateful to my hon. Friend for his intervention. Varying and conflicting figures are bandied around, but there is a fundamental issue that was mentioned earlier. These train stations will not be built and these train lines will not reach my constituency until the 2020s. I have a young family and I am thinking of the futures of my children and my children’s children. It is very important that we make these very difficult decisions now. We could argue all day about conflicting figures, but it is very important that we push ahead with this project, which is important for our country’s future, including that of our children and our children’s children.

High-speed rail gives businesses the gift of time. Anyone who has a business background, as I do, knows the truth of the old saying, “Time is money”. In this case, that means more than slashing travel times to less than 80 minutes between Manchester and London. Neil Stephenson, the chief executive of a Newcastle-based IT firm, put it best in a recent article. He wrote:

“The failure of Britain’s transport system translates into missed meetings, unexpected overnight stays, disappointed customers and frazzled staff. A quick, cheap, reliable train service means I can build a customer base in places our employees couldn’t previously service without expensive hotel bills and missed night-time stories for their kids. And it means I can recruit from the high-end IT talent pools of London. These are tangible benefits that will help me build my business.”