Economic Growth and Employment

Vince Cable Excerpts

Wednesday 23rd November 2011 Commons Chamber

[The Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills (Vince Cable)]

I should like to respond to the motion, which actually bears only a passing resemblance to the speech made by the hon. Member for Streatham (Mr Umunna). I will start with issues of fact that I hope we can agree on.

The motion makes perfectly legitimate points about the state of the economy. It is certainly true that there is slow growth across Europe and in the UK. We fully understand that. We have not had the double-dip recession that has been predicted since the very first day of this Government, but yes, we do have slow growth. We accept that we have a worrying level of youth unemployment, although the largest component of that, the NEETs—those who are not in education, employment or training—were actually at their peak level before the financial crisis occurred. It is correct to say, as the motion does, that we have a high, and we would argue excessive, level of borrowing. That makes it all the more perverse that the single policy that the hon. Gentleman is offering to us is to increase that level of borrowing, which he considers so toxic.

[Joan Ruddock (Lewisham, Deptford) (Lab)]

The Prime Minister’s constituency has 1.8% unemployment and mine has 7.9%, yet the Secretary of State’s Government have chosen to leave a full employment service in Witney and to close down the jobcentre in Deptford. Does he agree, and will he support me, in asking his colleague to return an employment service to Deptford to help the 1,000 young people who are out of work now?

[Vince Cable]

Obviously, I do not know the particular position in Deptford, but I am very happy to take up the specifics if that helps.

The particular question that the hon. Gentleman started with was fair: why did the economic slow-down occur? He quoted my colleague in the upper House and others of varying views about why we have lower growth than was predicted by independent forecasters 18 months ago.

[Bill Esterson]

Will the Secretary of State give way?

[Vince Cable]

Let me try to deal with this issue. We would all probably accept—I hope that the hon. Member for Streatham would accept—that the Governor of the Bank of England is an independent, non-partisan, non-political analyst of what has occurred. Let me read to him the Governor’s account given a week ago on why the slow-down in growth has occurred. He said:

“This reflects the impact on the United Kingdom of the deterioration in prospects internationally, working through weaker net trade, higher credit spreads and the likelihood”

of elevated uncertainty. He goes on to describe the impact of world energy and commodity prices, and the 35% increase in the sterling price of oil, none of which was mentioned in the hon. Gentleman’s speech.

[Bill Esterson]

Will the Secretary of State give way?

[Vince Cable]

Let me just finish this argument. Some of us have argued for a long time that the underlying problem is that, since the beginning of the crisis, the British economy has suffered—I use my own metaphor— the economic equivalent of a heart attack. There is a profound problem, and what lies behind it is the fact that, more than any other developed country, we have quite extraordinary levels of debt.

There are different kinds of debt. Household debt is 160% of gross domestic product and, after the boom that took place under the previous Government, it is higher than in other developed countries. Banks’ balance sheets are more than 400% of GDP, after they were allowed to run out of control. Government debt is 180% and rising as a result of the deficit financing we had to undertake. If we put those things together, as McKinsey has done, they show that the position we inherited is one where total debt in the UK is approaching 500% of our GDP. The only other country with a problem of that scale is Japan. That is the inheritance we are now seeking to manage.

[Mr Umunna]

First, on borrowing, does the Business Secretary accept that the average of the independent forecast that his Government published last week shows that, for all his claims to be working to a strategy to reduce our debts, his Government could end up borrowing more in every single year remaining of this Parliament than under Labour’s more sensible deficit reduction plan? Secondly, does he accept that confidence indicators when he took office and took charge of his Department were not too bad and were improving until the comprehensive spending review was announced, after which it nosedived?

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Lindsay Hoyle)]

Order. We must have shorter interventions.

[Vince Cable]

On the level of borrowing, let us wait until next week and see what the independent forecast is in the Chancellor’s statement. Of course, the reason why borrowing rises when the economy slows down is the flexibility that is built in—the so-called counter-cyclical stabilisers that we employ as part of our fiscal policy. Unlike the United States and other countries, we allow slow-downs to be accommodated in that way, supporting the economy.

The hon. Gentleman asked me what our strategy is to deal with this problem. I will summarise it. There are three parts. First, we have to stick to fiscal discipline to maintain the confidence of the people who lend to us. That is a very simple proposition that is very difficult to realise and it is something we have done. He quoted various comments from business organisations around the country. I keep in touch with such organisations regularly and go around the country to the regions and nations of the UK. I have yet to meet a single representative of the business community who has asked us to slacken our process of deficit reduction—not a single one. They all make it absolutely clear, including the CBI, that they regard plan A, as it is called, which is deficit reduction, as an absolutely necessary pre-condition to stabilising the economy.

The second element relates to the first. Precisely because we have a large amount of debt in our economy, the priority for Government has to be to preserve an environment in which there are low interest rates. The stimulus we get in our economy—the source of demand—comes primarily through monetary policy. Through the Bank of England acting on short-term interest rates, through long-term interest rates related to bond yields, through quantitative easing at the Bank of England—now credit easing—and through a competitive exchange rate, we have a monetary policy that supports growth and demand. Given the massive debt we have inherited, it is only through monetary policy—relatively low interest rates—that we can possibly support the economy.

[Mr Umunna]

On that point, the Business Secretary talks about monetary policy as if it is somehow a good thing that we are having to resort to quantitative easing. Does he agree that quantitative easing is a last resort of a desperate Government?

[Vince Cable]

It is certainly a last resort in a major economic crisis. I am sure he appreciates that we are living through an economic crisis that is unparalleled in our lifetimes. That is why not only Britain, but the United States and other countries are having to resort to unorthodox monetary policy. That is a reflection of the desperation of many western countries. Our Bank of England has been comfortable with our fiscal policy and, to that extent, has been willing to support it through monetary means.

Those are two of the three elements of the strategy. The third is rebalancing the economy. We inherited an economy that was horribly unbalanced in favour of debt-supported consumption and banking, and we are now rebalancing the economy towards exports and trade. Rapid growth is taking place at the moment in British exports. That is the strategy on which we will proceed and on which we will be judged. The alternative we have been offered is something called plan B, which I think has been renamed the “Antiques Roadshow” in respect of the shadow Chancellor. No serious business organisation is arguing that such financial irresponsibility has any prospect of success.

[Nadhim Zahawi]

In the document that I have in my hand the shadow Business Secretary says, regarding the new economy, that we need to build an economy that is

“less vulnerable to global shocks”.

How does the Secretary of State think that building an economy based on £100 billion of extra borrowing by 2015 will deliver that?

[Vince Cable]

I can give a bit of substance in answer to that. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which has been critical of the Government in some respects, has done its own simulation. On the use of fiscal policy to support growth, which I think is what the Opposition plan B is all about, it says that in order to stimulate growth from 1% to 2% we would need to have a Government borrowing account of about 12% of GDP. Is that actually what the Opposition are proposing, because that is what their plan B—fiscal stimulus—means?

[Mr Dave Watts (St Helens North) (Lab)]

The Secretary of State is very good at talking about the support he gets for deficit reduction. When he is travelling around the UK, do people support his growth policies, because I have not met a business man who does?

[Vince Cable]

I have tried to explain that wherever I go, not just in the business community, there is an understanding that, given our inheritance, we have to pursue fiscal discipline. It is as simple as that. We will support that with economic growth measures that I will develop, responding to the comments of the hon. Member for Streatham, in a moment.

[Mr Barry Sheerman (Huddersfield) (Lab/Co-op)]

The Secretary of State knows that some of us, even on the Labour Benches, have always admired his grasp of economics, and his analysis is impressive. I also know that he gets around the country; he has recently been to my constituency. However, what people are telling me when I go around the country is that they understand the analysis but want to know where is the imagination that is needed when a Government see 1 million young people unemployed. Where is the charismatic leadership? Where is the air that something is really being done fundamentally to help these young people?

[Vince Cable]

I will describe in more detail, as will the Minister for Further Education, Skills and Lifelong Learning, some of the initiatives that we are taking on apprenticeships, for example, which reflect real imagination and real change.

Let me try to respond to some of the points that the hon. Member for Streatham made. First, he wholly misunderstands what is happening with the regional growth fund. More than half the projects are under way in the first wave of the regional growth fund. The factories have been built and the jobs are being created. Because of due diligence, the disbursement—I have had this confirmed—is still taking an average of three to six weeks. I am happy to pursue the individual cases that the hon. Gentleman raised. As I understand it—I may be wrong—the case that he dwelt on at some length is the result of the applicant having radically changed the status of their application, and we will happily look at that. However, I am not going to take lectures on the disbursement of Government money. I do not know whether he is aware of this, but the previous Government set up a £5 billion trade credit insurance scheme which, after two years, has managed to disburse £81,000. The regional growth fund is proceeding as predicted and suggested by Lord Heseltine and his team. We are following those processes. The factories are being built and the jobs are being created, and that is what matters.

The hon. Gentleman challenged me on procurement. I have been to Derby and talked to the people involved. Obviously, we are very concerned about what has happened in that case. The problem with procurement is that for a decade or more the public procurement policies pursued in this country were unbelievably short-sighted and legalistic. In the case of the Thameslink contract, we inherited a contract procedure based principles that did not allow for the wider effects on the British economy. However, that particular decision has been made. I have made it absolutely clear, and my right hon. Friend the Minister for the Cabinet Office made it clear two days ago, that we are going to approach public procurement in a different way. We are going to do it strategically and take account of supply chains. Of course we will operate within the law and will not be protectionist, but a lot can be done through public procurement that we are now going to pursue. My only question is why on earth Labour Members did not do this when they were in office if they care so much about it.

[Mr Adrian Bailey (West Bromwich West) (Lab/Co-op)]

Is the Secretary of State now in a position to give me an answer that he could not give when I questioned his departmental report a couple of weeks ago—namely, exactly how many jobs have been created by the regional growth fund so far?

[Vince Cable]

No, I cannot do that, because the projects are under construction. When they are fully completed and fully staffed and their supply chains are established, it will be possible to come up with a meaningful number.

The third area of criticism and questioning of the hon. Member for Streatham related to the banks. The motion recycles the idea of a bank bonus tax, so let us go over what that involves. The current estimate from the CBI, which has carried out research on this in the City, suggests that the yield from bonuses this year—the bonus pool—is likely to be something in the order of £4.2 billion. Of that £4.2 billion, £2.5 billion goes to Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs in tax because of high tax rates on bonuses, and rightly so. That leaves £1.7 billion in bonuses paid out, assuming that the projection is correct. The Opposition are suggesting that they will have a £2 billion tax on bank bonuses. Where is this £2 billion going to come from? It is considerably more than the total bonuses paid out. Even if they applied 100% tax, which is implausible, what would happen, obviously, is that pay would be consolidated. They have not thought this through. Perhaps that is why the hon. Gentleman did not bother to raise it. Can he can tell us how it will work?

[Mr Umunna]

I am happy to do so. I am slightly bemused that the Secretary of State should quote those figures from the CBI. It represents all the banks, so would he expect it to say anything different? Of course, the bonus round has not yet been completed, so we have absolutely no idea what the final figure will be.

[Vince Cable]

I see that the hon. Gentleman is playing for time.

Apart from this slightly mysterious bank bonus tax, what is extraordinary is that we are being lectured on the banking system by a party which in government allowed the banking system to run completely out of control. There was no regulation on cash bonuses. Despite the fact that the banks had an implicit Government guarantee, they were not required to pay any tax for it. We have introduced the banking levy. Labour allowed tax avoidance on an industrial scale and did absolutely nothing about it, yet the hon. Gentleman now presumes to lecture me on banking. I really do think that Labour Members need to reflect a little on what happened in the banking system.

Finally, the hon. Gentleman made various references to spending commitments—or our damaging spending cuts, as he saw them—and tax cuts. This is the time of year when my grandchildren write letters to the north pole addressed to Santa Claus. I have to say that compared with what we are hearing, those letters from my five-year-old grandson are a model of financial discipline and economic literacy. The hon. Gentleman’s predecessor was very eloquent in criticising the cuts to the university teaching grant. The hon. Gentleman has adopted other targets—for example, he has criticised the cuts in the regional development agencies. He has also criticised cuts in the science budget. Last week, he made a very eloquent statement on this, despite the fact that the scientific establishment had been very complimentary about the fact that we had protected the cash budget for science.

When I came into my current job, the one thing I knew was that my Labour predecessors were planning to cut the Department’s budget by 25%, and that is what we have done, because that was the economic reality. I am therefore left with a question to which I have been trying to get an answer. Perhaps the hon. Gentleman can be more forthcoming and economically rounded than his predecessor in telling me how the Opposition are going to achieve their plans. Where is the money going to come from? We have a whole lot of spending commitments in every area of our Department, but not a single suggestion about where those heroic cuts are going to come from. Of course we would like to spend more money on science and other things, and of course some of the tax cut proposals are very attractive, such as the VAT rate on building repairs, which would cost £1 billion, but where does the money come from? This gets to the heart of the problem, which is that the Labour Opposition’s proposal is financially irresponsible. It deals with the problem of Government borrowing by adding to it and deals with the problem of Government debt by adding to it.

[Mr Umunna]

The various commitments that we have made are all costed and fund themselves. The Business Secretary has said a lot about banking. If he is so fiscally responsible, will he join us in committing to use all the proceeds from the sales of the public stakes in the banks towards reducing the deficit?

[Vince Cable]

The hon. Gentleman’s numbers may have been costed but they do not add up—that is the problem. As for the banks, it will be quite some years before the sales take place. The Northern Rock sale has gone ahead—that is a small bank—but for the major banks, it is likely to be some years ahead. We do not know whether it will be in this Parliament or the next; we have no idea what the economic conditions will be. It would be ludicrous for me to hypothecate about revenue receipts at this stage.

I will move on to my final passage, because I would like colleagues to have an opportunity to speak. I will summarise some of the positive things that we are doing, albeit within a very constrained budget, to support growth. Of course, fiscal discipline and monetary policy have to be supported by interventions. The hon. Gentleman is absolutely right that there is a role for state intervention. I am not in favour of laissez-faire. There are things that we can do.

Our concentration is on export growth. There has been 13% export growth over the past year. We are outward looking. The motion does not even mention trade. It is unbelievably parochial. I spend a lot of my time in emerging markets with British exporters—I have been to all of them—to support export growth. I do not claim personal credit for the growth, but we have acted as a catalyst for export growth in Brazil, Russia, India and China—the BRIC countries—of 26%, in India of 34% and in Turkey of 30%. I keep in touch with our exporters by working with them and alongside them to deal with overseas Governments. That is where the recovery is going to take place. It is on the back of those exports that we are getting rapid growth in manufacturing in certain sectors such as the automobile sector, which has attracted big inward investment from Jaguar Land Rover and others.

[Julian Smith]

Will the Secretary of State tell us what situation he found exports in when he arrived in his post? What sort of condition was UK Trade & Investment in and what great suggestions did the previous Government have in this area?

[Vince Cable]

UKTI has been radically reformed, thanks to the Minister for Trade and Investment, Lord Green. I think that it will perform an excellent function. What I found was that British export activity in the big emerging markets, which is clearly where future growth lies, had been sorely neglected for many years. As somebody put it to me, when we turned up on the beach the Germans were already in the deckchairs. They have dominated the market in these countries and we are a marginal player. It will take years to turn that around, but that is where our emphasis lies.

[Nadhim Zahawi]

Does the Secretary of State agree that under the previous Government we exported more to Ireland than we did to Brazil, Russia, India and China put together?

[Vince Cable]

I thank the hon. Gentleman for reminding me of one of my best lines. It is partly a compliment to Ireland that we trade with it so extensively, but that fact is an appalling commentary on our neglect of the big emerging markets.

Export growth is one key focus for us. The second is people and apprenticeships. The Minister for Further Education, Skills and Lifelong Learning will say more about this in his summary. Despite a severely curtailed budget, we have increased apprenticeships—actual people doing training—by 50% over the past year. There are now 350,000 people in such training. We do not accept that that is the end of the road. We have to improve the quality and refocus as much as possible on younger apprentices, thereby addressing in part the problem of youth unemployment. This is a major success story and we are proud of it.

On access to finance, one of the major themes of my analysis has been that what we are dealing with is a collapsed and non-functioning banking system. It is right for Members to continue to cross-question us on the Merlin agreement, because that is at the heart of the problem. We have stopped, at least in relation to small and medium-sized enterprises, a process of rapid deleveraging. We are using Government funding through the regional growth fund and, from next year, the Green investment bank to co-finance private capital so that there is access to finance for British industry. We are taking initiatives to support equity finance. The business growth fund is not Government owned or controlled, but it is a major initiative that should have been taken decades ago to get equity finance functioning. Access to finance is a critical issue—of course we accept that. It is a consequence of the banking crisis that we are focused on it.

I want to give one final concluding thought. When I hear the Opposition speaking about the economy, I think that lying at the back of their world view is the idea that what we are currently in the middle of is a cyclical problem—we had a boom, we had a bust, we will press a few buttons, spend a bit more money, and we will get back into a boom again. This is not a cyclical problem; it is a profound, long-standing structural problem. We had the wrong model. Growth was based on fundamentally the wrong principles, it was not sustainable and it collapsed. We are now having to repair the damage.

[Several hon. Members]

rose—