Brexit Deal: Referendum

Tom Brake Excerpts

Monday 11th December 2017 Westminster Hall

[Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South) (Lab)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered e-petitions 200004, 187570, 193282 and 200311 relating to a referendum on the deal for the UK’s exit from the European Union.

It is a great pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Sir David, and a real privilege to lead this important debate on behalf of the Petitions Committee. This place is not short of a debate or two on Brexit—in fact, the Prime Minister is making a statement as we speak—but this debate is rather different from all the others because it is based on petitions signed by a very large number of people from across the length and breadth of our country. I thank the proposers of all the petitions and all the signatories. Looking around at the Members here today, I think we are going to hear a wide diversity of opinions.

We are here to debate themes expressed in four petitions. Like the rest of the country, they are not all of one mind on Brexit and they do not express a single standpoint. The petition that has by far the largest number of signatures—136,789 when I last looked—calls for a referendum on the final Brexit deal:

“We, the undersigned, call upon HM Government to give the people of this country the final say on the Brexit deal negotiated by the UK and EU. This would be done through a referendum that would take place prior to the April 2019 exit date.

The referendum would allow for three options:

(1) To revoke Article 50, thereby keeping Britain in the EU

(2) To reject the UK-EU deal and leave the EU

(3) To accept the UK-EU deal and leave the EU

If no agreement has been negotiated by the UK and EU before the date of the referendum, then the third option could be removed. If all three options remain, it may be necessary for the vote to take place using a Single Transferable Vote to ensure no option is disadvantaged. Regardless of whether individuals voted to remain or leave the EU in the June 2016 EU referendum, everyone should have a chance to decide their future based on the final agreement negotiated between the UK and EU.”

[Tom Brake (Carshalton and Wallington) (LD)]

Does the hon. Lady think that, by signing the petition, people have in fact been expressing the will of the people?

[Susan Elan Jones]

They are certainly expressing their own views by signing the petition. I always think it is healthy for such petitions to be tabled. These are part of a very important debate.

The first petition is not dissimilar to another petition that calls for the final Brexit deal to be put to a referendum, with revoking article 50 as an option. On the other side of the coin, there is a petition that calls for the rejection of all demands from the EU for penalty charges for Brexit. Finally, the fourth petition calls for no referendum on the final deal between the UK and the European Union. The petitioners do not mince their words one bit:

“The attempts to propose yet another referendum and pose a set of questions to the British public on the final deal is a distasteful proposal, considering we were already given a free and fair referendum last year, to now agree to another referendum would be an appalling waste of taxpayers’ money and send out the wrong message to the British public that the vote last year was meaningless.

The referendum should not be re-run just to placate individuals unable to accept a democratic decision”.

There we have it. Therein lies our problem. Brexit is a subject about which we all think different things, and our country is deeply polarised.

Back in the day—it seems such a long time ago—when Prime Minister Cameron was listening to his focus groups, it all seemed so simple: offer a referendum on EU membership, unite the Tory party with a pledge, and ensure that enough UK Independence party voters come on side to beat Labour in the marginal seats in the 2015 general election. That bit seemed to work for him, but the next bit of the plot did not go quite so well. Try as team Cameron and other remainers might, they did not get a remain vote.

There have been many interpretations of the 2016 referendum campaign and result. It is certainly difficult to find a new one, but I have not been shy of trying. For all I have read and heard about this subject, I do not think that any other commentator has used one of Aesop’s fables to press their case. Allow me to try to remedy that omission. I think the little tale of the goat kid and the wolf explains perfectly what is happening— I should inform you that it is only a very short tale, Sir David.

“A Kid, returning without protection from the pasture, was pursued by a Wolf. He turned round, and said to the Wolf: ‘I know, friend Wolf, that I must be your prey; but before I die, I would ask of you one favor, that you will play me a tune, to which I may dance.’ The Wolf complied, and while he was piping, and the Kid was dancing, the hounds, hearing the sound, came up and gave chase to the Wolf. The Wolf, turning to the Kid, said: ‘It is just what I deserve; for I, who am only a butcher, should not have turned piper to please you.’”

The official moral of the tale is that everyone should keep their own colours. My adapted version of the moral is this: if one believes that Brexit is a lot of old cobblers, do not introduce an initial referendum on the subject. However, I hasten to add, I am speaking for myself and no one else. With the referendum genie firmly out of the bottle, we need to ask whether there is a case for one before the April 2019 exit date.

According to Survation, in an opinion poll for The Mail on Sunday, 49.5% of voters now want a referendum on the final deal, compared with 34.2% who definitely do not and 16.3% who say they do not know. Intriguingly, according to the same poll, 34% of the 2016 leave voters want such a referendum. That should not be such a great surprise. It is a view that Ross Clark expresses with great lucidity in The Spectator magazine:

“If we going to be forced to fund EU projects and not have full freedom to set our own regulations and cut our own trade deals with the rest of the world I can’t see the point of leaving at all. If we are not prepared to transform ourselves into a Singapore, recasting Britain as an unashamed honeypot for business and enterprise then Brexit will have been a waste of time and money. If we are going to remain a European-model social democratic country then we might as well remain in a club of other European social democracies”.

Now, I disagree profoundly with Mr Clark’s political views and with what he wants for our country, but his logic relating to a referendum on the final deal makes perfect sense. He also makes a compelling argument for holding a multi-option referendum, with electors expressing a first and second-preference vote.

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[Susan Elan Jones]

It will have been going on for rather longer. Some people I had communications from seemed to think that, because I am leading this debate, I would have a role in the final Brexit negotiations. That is a nice idea, and I shared my thoughts with them in some cases. I think that multi-option is very important, because it would bring greater clarity. When I saw the discussion on multi-option, my first thought was, “Gosh, this all sounds painfully Lib Dem”—without meaning any disrespect to anyone—but the options are complicated and we should dignify the debate and a future referendum by making it multi-option.

[Tom Brake]

Does the hon. Lady agree that one way of ensuring that the referendum is different from the previous one might be to appoint an independent arbiter who would look at the claims being made by the different camps? If someone came forward with the ludicrous claim that there will be £350 million a week for the NHS, the arbiter would be able to say, “That is completely out of order. You cannot repeat that phrase.”

[Susan Elan Jones]

I do not think that it will be me making the decision, but that seems like a very sensible point.

Although I am far more sympathetic to the need for a referendum on the final deal than the archbishop was in his speech, he made his case powerfully. I have no doubt that in this House today and on other days, many different viewpoints will be expressed on Brexit issues. I am sure that will be the case in communities the length and breadth of the United Kingdom. One thing that I am far less confident about is that there will be a healing of the divisions anytime soon on this divisive subject. All of us, wherever we stand on the Brexit spectrum, need to be mindful of that.

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[Martin Vickers]

That is a matter of interpretation. The reality is that Parliament voted overwhelmingly to trigger article 50. Whatever colleagues might say now, the fact is that the vote triggered an irreversible process and was an acknowledgment of the original referendum decision.

[Tom Brake]

May I correct something that the hon. Gentleman said? It is not an irreversible process. It is very clear that article 50 can be revoked. That is not in doubt.

[Martin Vickers]

The right hon. Gentleman might think that it is not in doubt but other opinions I have read and heard differ. Whatever the situation, Parliament would undermine the clear will of the British people if it attempted in any way to reverse that position.

Suppose the Prime Minister had stood up this afternoon and, instead of saying that there will be no second referendum, as she did at 4.21 pm, said, “Well yes, okay, let’s think about it. Maybe we’ll have a second referendum.” That would have undermined the British Government’s negotiating position. Clearly, the EU could then have said, “We’ll give them the worst possible deal and they will of course accept it.” Why would we want continued membership on worse terms than we have now? As I said, the Prime Minister has made that absolutely clear.

Another reason for not having a second referendum is that it would cause further political paralysis in this country and yet more time would be devoted to this matter. People have said to me repeatedly, “We’ve made our decision—just get on with it and let’s get over it.” The hon. Member for Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) spoke of multiple options. What could be worse than multiple options? Suppose 20% of people agreed with option A, 20% agreed with option B and 19% agreed with option C. That would be a recipe for complete and utter chaos.

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[Geraint Davies]

Let me say this before the hon. Gentleman comes back in. If the people, with the facts at their disposal, vote in principle to leave, as they did, that is fine. Having ordered a product, as it were, they now need to look at whether what they received reasonably represents what was described and what they were promised. If they still want to go ahead, I am happy that we leave. However, if the hon. Gentleman buys a mobile phone that claims to be able to take colour photos, for example, but when it arrives it only does black and white, he should have the right to either send it back or accept it. I know he likes to see the world in black and white, so he would probably accept it despite being promised colour, but a lot of people would not do so—they would reject it.

Let me use another analogy: if the hon. Gentleman goes into a restaurant thinking he is going to get a free steak but ends up with a chewed-up bit of bacon that costs €40, he should have the right to send it back. He, however, would choose to eat it. He would say, “I ordered food and even though I thought it would be free”—remember that it costs €40—“and it’s bacon, I’ll eat it, because that is what I said.”

[Tom Brake]

It is €40 billion.

[Geraint Davies]

I know; I am just talking about an individual case.

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[Geraint Davies]

The hon. Gentleman will know that we have got the lowest growth in the G7—it is absolutely appalling.

[Tom Brake]

From top to bottom.

[Geraint Davies]

From top to bottom, as the right hon. Gentleman says.

So now we have what can be characterised as the “Bad Friday agreement”. Our great Prime Minister was phoned up at 5 o’clock in the morning, dragged out of bed and required to fly to a meeting in Europe to be told, over breakfast, what she will receive for Brexit. She will have to pay between €35 billion and €39 billion, with no strings attached on trade. She will have to ensure that the single market and customs union operates within Northern Ireland, which is obviously a recipe for companies from Britain to move to Northern Ireland so that they can be in both the UK and the single market. She was told that 3 million EU citizens will basically still enjoy all the rights and protections from the European Court of Justice while British citizens will not—we will be second-class citizens in our own country. She was told all that, and she said, “Oh, that sounds all right. I’ll go and talk to Parliament about that.” Sadly, we are not able to view that statement in its entirety.

We have seen the devaluation, the inflation and the lost trade, and we have had problems with market access. The people in Swansea and elsewhere who voted leave were told, “Don’t worry: we’ll have single market access,” but already we are seeing an exodus of jobs. I am not just talking about the European Banking Authority or the European Medicines Agency, but those basic strategic units of key importance are being dislocated from the British economy. Indeed, many multinational headquarters are in London so that they can be next to the City and have access to Europe. Companies are considering relocating for that reason as well.

If we exit and have to do our own thing with other countries, I fear for Britain. We would turn our back on the biggest market in the world and turn to the United States and the open arms of Donald Trump—I hope you have not eaten recently, Sir David—who has already placed tariffs on and shown aggression towards Bombardier. At his inauguration he said, “Foreign companies are taking our jobs, making our products and stealing our companies”, and that he would ensure that new trade deals would at least achieve parity or ensure a trade surplus for the United States. I am fearful of the sorts of trade deals we will get with regard to money and qualitatively speaking. They sell asbestos, chlorinated chicken and the like—that is something to look forward to from the United States.

People are suddenly realising that what was promised is not going to materialise, and that what is materialising is something awful. The Prime Minister has also agreed a two-year transition period—which is two years on death row, in my view. Companies now have two years to make an orderly transition out of Britain. They can relocate to somewhere they will not face massive tariffs or restrictions on skilled workers or product parts moving across borders so that they can make their products and sell them.

What is more, people were told that they would take back control. We have been debating the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, which, in a nutshell, was meant to translate the rights and privileges of the EU constitution into British law, but which in fact is drafted so widely that it gives Ministers the right to change things as appropriate, so that those rights and privileges can be crossed out by future Governments. There is no guarantee for them. It is drafted so broadly that the courts are unable effectively to exercise judicial review over those rights. Finally, the enforcement agencies are not in place to deliver those rights. For example, in essence the European Court is enforcing air quality standards that we fail to meet in Britain; we would just be able to decide in future that we will not have air quality standards. Rights and privileges that we currently enjoy can be taken away by future Governments and the Government have concentrated power in Ministers, away from Parliament. Instead of taking back control, we are losing it.

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[Tom Brake (Carshalton and Wallington) (LD)]

Thank you for chairing the debate, Sir David. I will make a few comments about some of the contributions that have been made. I start by thanking the hon. Member for Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) for introducing the debate and for setting out the range of views in the petitions. She drew attention to the fact that it is dangerous for the Prime Minister and the Government to seek to represent the views of only one section. When I specifically asked the Prime Minister when she will stand up and speak for the 48%, her answer was, “I am representing the 52%.” Other Members have asked, “Why has this debate been quite binary?” I think it is because our Prime Minister has adopted a binary position on whom she is representing, and that is very dangerous.

I was amused when the hon. Member for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers) referred to the fact that the European Union has been a running sore through the body politic. To be more precise, it has been a running sore through his political party, and that is why we had the referendum.

[Catherine West]

Perhaps the case in point is the fact that we would not be having this discussion had a certain former Prime Minister not brought it on, due to the running sore within his own movement.

[Tom Brake]

Indeed; the measure was clearly designed to try to bring the Conservative party together for a general election campaign. The hon. Member for Cleethorpes also asked why we would want to settle for a worse deal than the one we have. That is exactly what we will do as a result of his Government’s actions.

I welcome the Bill introduced by the hon. Member for Swansea West (Geraint Davies), who is not in his place. A vote on the deal is Liberal Democrat policy. There will be an opportunity to test the House on day eight of the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill, when amendment 120 will be voted on. On 20 December, I hope that many Members of Parliament from all parties who are in the Chamber today will support that and enable that further vote to happen.

The issue of young people and the fact that they voted heavily to remain has been rather set aside by Government Members. Although I would not support the idea of weighting for votes, disregarding those concerns and not accepting that there is a difference between the impact on young people and the impact on the older section of the population who voted to leave is a concern.

The issues that were raised about the impact on Wales are a concern, too. If farmers in Wales are expecting to get the same level of subsidy that they do now, they need to rethink things, because frankly, they will not. Farmers are certainly very worried by the prospect of no deal, so a positive thing about Friday was that the possibility of no deal has receded a bit. I met a farmer last week who potentially faced tariffs of 40% on lamb if we fall back on World Trade Organisation rules. If anyone thinks that a single hill farmer will continue to operate in Wales or Scotland with 40% tariffs on lamb, if we fall back on WTO rules, they need to think again.

The hon. Member for Swansea West said that there was no one who has experience of doing trade deals. When I asked the question, I got one name—Crawford Falconer—so at least the Government have one person. It is a pity, however, that Mr Falconer came from the Legatum Institute, which, frankly, has adopted a rather biased position on Brexit and is very much pushing a hard Brexit agenda.

The hon. Member for East Renfrewshire (Paul Masterton) referred to the value of trade. He said that he supported remain because he recognised the value to trade and business of being in the European Union and because we were so integrated. Yet he is now fully endorsing something that he knows will cause damage to trade and business. That is why I find it difficult to understand the position that Conservative remain-voting Members of Parliament are now adopting, with their wholesale endorsement of something that they know will cause damage. Yet they are willing to proceed with it; the will of the people dictated it, so we are going over the cliff edge, come what may. They know that it will cause damage but they are endorsing it.

The hon. Member for York Central (Rachael Maskell) was right to say that the referendum was at a point in time. She said that she found hope in the statement on Friday, as did I, but my little bit of hope was somewhat reduced within 24 hours, when the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said that if people do not like the deal, they can tear it up at the next general election and have another one. I am not sure what message it sends to the European Union about our negotiations with it, or indeed, to the Irish about the certainty they can have about what our Government agree, if a very senior Cabinet Member says, “Actually, if you don’t like it, we’ll give you another one. We’ll give you the real hard Brexit that I support, as Secretary of State for DEFRA”—or as the spokesman for foreign affairs. I do not have confidence that this will stick for very long. Members are waiting in the wings and keeping remarkably quiet at the moment, and I wonder how long, for instance, the hon. Member for Stone (Sir William Cash) and the right hon. Member for Wokingham (John Redwood) will do so.

I would like to comment on many other things, but I am aware that we need to move on to the Front Benchers’ contributions soon. The hon. Member for North East Derbyshire (Lee Rowley) should not be surprised that this has not been an academic debate on the benefits of referendums versus parliamentary democracy. He has strong views on this debate, as do I and many other Members of the House. We on the Opposition side have strong views because we believe that this will be the single most damaging, dangerous thing that the UK has embarked on in the past 50 years. I am afraid that we are not going to have an academic debate about the merits of referendums; we are actually going to focus on what we think will cause major damage to the United Kingdom.

If people do not believe that, I recommend that they talk to foreign diplomats, from the European Union and outside it, about what their perception of the United Kingdom is now. That is not just down to who we have as our Foreign Secretary, but because they believe that we are isolating ourselves and taking a step backwards. We are far from being the global Britain that the Government talk about. Our friends believe the opposite. That is not me saying that; it is what I hear from my contact with diplomats, who are conveying that message to our Government. They do not understand. We used to have a Government who were pragmatic and well organised in negotiations and who played a central role in the European Union; now we have a Government who are disorganised, do not know where we stand and have not even yet had significant Cabinet debates about what the future of our relationship with the European Union should look like.

Finally, I was wondering whether there was anyone who was perhaps more pessimistic about Brexit than me, but I have found in the hon. Member for Newport West (Paul Flynn) someone who feels as strongly—indeed more strongly than I do. I also support entirely the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas), who I think is in the same place as me. She rightly highlighted the very legitimate concerns that the people who voted leave had during the course of that campaign. I challenge the Government to say what they have done about some of those most significant concerns.

On housing, we need 300,000 new homes. How many of those will the Government build? How many will they build when many of those construction workers who work in London do not return after Christmas because they prefer to stay in their countries in the European Union? So that is not going to happen. On the skills agenda, the number of people doing apprenticeships, which are about giving people the skills to take the jobs here so that we do not have to rely on people from the EU, has halved. The Government are simply not addressing those concerns.

On 20 December, I hope that people will support amendment 120. Other Members have referred to the Survation poll and I agree that we cannot claim that everything has changed on the basis of one poll. However, a number of polls—not just the Survation poll—point to a shift. Peter Kellner has pointed to the same thing: a shift, for instance, from working-class voters on this issue. Other Members quoted the figure of those responding to the Survation question—

“When the UK Government’s negotiations over the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU are complete, would you…support holding a referendum?”—

which is just under 50%, whereas 34% oppose such a referendum.

When I was quoting those figures, I saw the Minister shaking his head. I am not sure whether he disagrees with Survation’s methodology—perhaps he does and would like to set that out—but those are the figures that it provided, and I am sure its poll was decent and well researched. The main argument deployed against having a vote on the deal is that the will of the people was expressed on 23 June 2016, so job done; we proceed. Well, people around the world are considering with increasing concern whether there was, for instance, significant Russian interference in the US elections. Will they be happy and confident in future years simply to go along with the result, knowing that the Russians might have played a significant role in perverting the outcome of the election?

The hon. Member for Newport West referred to the debate that will take place next Wednesday, on 20 December, about Russian interference in UK politics and society. There is evidence of organised Twitter activity by the Russians, seeking to influence the outcome of the EU referendum. Why did they do that? Because it is in their interests to split up the European Union, and they know that the UK played a significant role in ensuring that sanctions were applied to Russia. There is evidence. I ask Conservative leave supporters what level of interference from abroad or lies peddled at home—I will not cover the ground about the £350 million a week for the NHS, as it has been mentioned frequently in this debate—would make them feel that maybe the result was not quite so convincing after all. It was only 52% to 48%.

I have before me a selection of leaflets—I will not go through them, because I know that we need to get to the Front-Bench speeches—containing what the leave campaign said during the EU referendum period. They say that we will get lots of money back after leaving the European Union, but they do not mention all the additional costs, including duplicating agencies and the settlement bill, which we now know is a down payment, not the final payment. We might have to pay for access to the single market and the customs union, when we know that we will have a smaller economy. Again, the Minister shook his head when the figure of £65 billion in shrinkage was mentioned; that was actually the Chancellor’s figure, so I am not sure what he was disagreeing with.

We know that the NHS is spending more money on visas for nurses, because nurses are not coming from Spain, Portugal and Italy anymore. In fact, I have been told that the recruitment fairs that the NHS used to hold have stopped, and nurses are coming instead from Thailand and India. The difference is that the Government—the hospital trust—must pay £1,000 per visa to secure those nurses, whereas when they came from Spain, Portugal and Italy, it cost NHS trusts nothing at all.

I do not have time to go through all the things that were said by the leave campaign in its leaflets, none of which, I argue, has been delivered. Another Member referred to the Citizens’ Assembly on Brexit, which I certainly recommend. It is an example of the will of the people being expressed through a deliberative and constructive process that takes people through the arguments. It is the debate that we should have had before the EU referendum, but did not. The outcome, hon. Members will be interested to know, was that on migration, people wanted to

“retain free movement of labour, but with the UK Government exercising all available controls to prevent abuse”

of the system. Incidentally, the UK Government could have done that, but chose not to.

[Catherine West]

I will be extremely brief, because I know that there are other speeches to be made. Does the right hon. Gentleman agree that instead, we have had a bitter debate that has been xenophobic in tone, has lacked a lot of facts, and has led to an increase in hate crime since the beginning in earnest of the referendum period?

[Tom Brake]

Yes, and I suspect that every Member who is a remain supporter will have experienced that on stalls. People have come up to me and accused me of being a traitor. When papers talk about people being saboteurs, it clearly feeds that section of the population who might respond aggressively. It has fed that, and I regret it.

I will finish on a point about the strongest reason why Conservative Members should support the idea of a vote on the deal. First, even the most hard-line Brexiter must recognise that this is bad news for the UK—for UK jobs and UK families. It is also bad news for the Conservative party, because this is Tory Brexit. The Conservative party is delivering Brexit, and if it turns out as badly as some economic analysts predict, I expect that it will hang around the neck of the Conservative party for the next 20 or 30 years; I hope so. The Conservatives have an opportunity to engage the public and give them their say. If the public endorse and want to proceed with a deal that causes us more and more damage as each day goes by, they can say so in a referendum, but if they do not, that will give the Government the let-out that they need to stop them embarking on a course that Members of Parliament overwhelmingly knew would cause us damage, as we have heard it from some here today, and still know will cause us damage—but that they intend to proceed with anyway.

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[Peter Grant]

Well, it might become available after we leave, but I have not seen any hint of it in the Chancellor’s forward spending projections, or any indication that the NHS will suddenly become adequately funded, after not having been for a long time. The simple fact is that that was a good example of taking one isolated piece of information about the European Union and interpreting it to say whatever was wanted. In a previous Westminster Hall debate, I remember a number of hon. Members on the leave side claiming that nobody paid any attention to that big red bus anyway, which makes me wonder why they spent so much money driving it the length and breadth of these islands.

On the change of circumstances, I would always say that if it cannot be demonstrated that there has been some change of circumstances, it is difficult to argue for a rerun of any kind of process, whether an election, a referendum or anything else. In this case, it is difficult to be sure whether the facts have changed or whether people are more in possession of the facts than before. Certainly, some people have switched from vote leave to vote remain because they simply did not understand how complicated and fundamental a change this could be—the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) gave some exceptional examples of that.

With permission, Sir David, I will quote at greater length than I would normally from a document that was published shortly before the referendum, to give an indication of how people’s interpretation of the facts can sometimes change. It says:

“Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs…it could result in 10 years or more of uncertainty as the UK unpicks our relationship with the EU and renegotiates new arrangements with the EU and over 50 other countries… Some argue that we could strike a good deal quickly with the EU because they want to keep access to our market. But…it would be much harder than that… No other country has managed to secure significant access to the Single Market, without having to: follow EU rules over which they have no real say; pay into the EU; accept EU citizens living and working in their country”.

A number of hon. Members will be familiar with that information, which comes from the document about the referendum published by the UK Government in April 2016. The hon. Member for North East Derbyshire (Lee Rowley) spoke glowingly about what a good-quality publication it was.

We might look back to those Government announcements from April 2016 and say that they got it right, but unfortunately they are now telling us that they got it wrong. They are telling us that the negotiations will be very quick and there will be no loss of investment, no loss of jobs and all the rest of it. The Government have changed their mind; they have obviously decided that there has been a significant change of circumstances. The Prime Minister has gone from a remainer to a leaver; the Foreign Secretary had written an article for a newspaper saying why we should remain, and changed his mind; and of course, the Environment Secretary went from the best friend and strongest supporter of the Foreign Secretary’s leadership campaign to somebody who chose to stand against him. Even at the highest levels of government in these islands, Cabinet Ministers can change their minds very quickly. I understand the argument that if the people change their mind at some point in the future, they should be given the opportunity to express that at the ballot box.

Generally speaking, however, I take the view that the way for a party to change a referendum result is to get elected at the ballot box with an explicit manifesto commitment to a referendum. The Liberal Democrats had that manifesto commitment at the last election, but they did not come close to winning. I do not think we can say that everybody who voted Liberal Democrat wanted another referendum. We certainly cannot say that everybody who voted for another party did not want another referendum. If somebody wants to put the public through a process such as a referendum, they have to have some kind of clear public mandate for that. Only in exceptional circumstances could Parliament decide on a referendum that was not in the manifesto of the Government or the Opposition. I am not saying that it could never happen, but I think it would be very unusual indeed.

Having said that, we have to accept the simple fact that we have never had a referendum on leaving the single market or the customs union. Some people might claim that we did because somebody on the vote leave side and somebody on the vote remain side said that we would have to leave the single market and the customs union if the result was to leave. I caution hon. Members to be careful before they start asking the House to accept that the losers’ views are the ones that have to be put into place after the votes have been counted. I could give examples of where that logic would lead to conclusions that Conservative and Labour Members would be unhappy about.

The Government’s response to the question of the single market and the customs union has been to conflate what is necessary with what they have unilaterally decided. We now have Conservative Back Benchers who believe in good faith that it is not possible to leave the European Union without leaving the single market and the customs union. Quite clearly, that is possible. It is not what the Government have decided, but they have decided that because they decided it; it was nothing to do with the referendum.

The Government have refused point blank to tell us whether they have taken legal advice on whether article 50 can be withdrawn or revoked at any time for any reason. They are simply saying that their decision is that they will not revoke it—end of story. I wonder why they are being so coy about what legal advice they have had. Not that long ago, in the lead-up to other referendums, the Government were quite happy to publish legal advice when it seemed to support the political position they wanted to adopt. There is a degree of inconsistency there: sometimes the Government will publish legal advice and sometimes they will not. As long as the Government will not publish the advice they have had on whether article 50 can be revoked, people will wonder why.

[Tom Brake]

Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the most likely reason that the Government want to withhold that advice is because they do not want to give people the certainty that article 50 is revocable? I think that is what the advice says.

[Peter Grant]

The right hon. Gentleman may well say that; I could not possibly comment. I remind him, however, that like his colleague the hon. Member for Bath (Wera Hobhouse), I am a member of the Exiting the European Union Committee and we have had a lot of interesting discussions about why the Government might or might not want to disclose stuff, to decline to say whether it has been done, and then eventually to say that they cannot disclose it because it does not exist.

I understand why the result of the June 2016 referendum came as a massive shock for a lot of people—people who voted to leave, as well as some who voted to remain. It is correct that most people, however they voted, had no idea what a massive decision they were taking. I have been accused—in the Daily Express, no less—of saying that people were stupid. I do not think that they were stupid on 23 June; I think that they were badly informed—sometimes they were ill-informed and certainly they were misinformed a lot of the time.

The social implications of leaving the European Union have still not been properly discussed. I travel to other parts of Europe on parliamentary business, and I went to Northern Ireland with the Exiting the European Union Committee just a few days ago. The social impact of a possible change in the relationship between Northern Ireland and its neighbour to the south is really frightening people. I do not use that word lightly; people are frightened about what will happen to their communities and to their social and family links.

In Donegal, if someone needs radiotherapy, they go to a foreign country—they cross the border into Northern Ireland and the Government of Ireland help to pay for that hospital. On both sides of the border, people are used to the fact that they go to hospital or to school or to visit their granny in a different country. It is not just about whether people will be allowed to stay there and continue to make those journeys every day of their lives, but about the fact that a decision has been taken—not by the people of Northern Ireland, incidentally; as in Scotland, they voted to remain in the European Union—by somebody else that will fundamentally change the psychology of the relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The psychological and social impact of Brexit in Northern Ireland has not been touched on in most of our debates over here.

Comments have been made today about the size of the majority in the referendum. I am not convinced that that is a strong argument because we could wait a long time before we got any more than a 10% majority either way on the question of leaving the European Union. People have sincerely held views in opposite directions, so if we set a limit that there has to be a majority of more than so-and-so per cent., we could be going over it again and again. I do not think that would help.

If the Government want to continue to insist that Parliament simply has to vote for whatever deal they come back with at the end of this process—remembering that the only choice we have just now as far as they are concerned is to accept their deal or have no deal at all—it is important that they are a lot more inclusive about who contributes to those negotiations. They have to be prepared to listen much sooner in the process, not only to the Opposition, but to their own Back Benchers. If they had had the humility to do that during the first round of negotiations, we would have got to the stage we reached on Friday a lot sooner and with much less pain and grief.

The time may yet come when I will be prepared to say that there has to be a second referendum on EU membership. I do not rule that out; indeed, I suspect that I am coming closer to that view as each day passes. However, although I fully understand the grief that people are suffering as a result of the vote, I think that when we give people the right to take a decision, we must give them the responsibility to live by its results. I suspect that if we had a second referendum, either during this Parliament or at some other time, we would have a much more constructive and better informed debate than we did last time. I certainly know the result I would hope for if that happened, but—as always— I will accept any result that shows the will of the people.

[Paul Blomfield (Sheffield Central) (Lab)]

It is a pleasure to wind up for the Opposition with you in the Chair, Sir David. I join other hon. Members in paying tribute to my hon. Friend the Member for Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) for how she framed our discussion this afternoon, and I thank her for her informed, thoughtful and entertaining speech.

We in the Labour party campaigned strongly to remain in the European Union. We believed that to be in the best interests of our country economically and politically and the best interests of the continent that we share—and will continue to share—with the other 27 members of the European Union. However, I want to make it clear at the outset that we are not calling for a further referendum, or what might best be described as a third referendum, after the first in 1975 and the second in 2016.

Of the four petitions under our consideration, the one that includes strongest support for such a referendum is the first, which expresses an aspiration to give

“the people of this country the final say on the Brexit deal negotiated by the UK and EU…through a referendum that would take place prior to the April 2019 exit date.”

That wording highlights the difficulties with the aspiration that those who drafted and signed the petition may genuinely and understandably feel. A number of hon. Members have already highlighted the 2016 referendum’s problems, one of which is that it offered a choice between a known and an unknown: we had experience, knowledge and understanding of being a member of the European Union, but leaving was an unknown. That vacuum was seized on by leave campaigners, who painted the situation in all sorts of ways to meet whatever aspirations they felt were held by those who might support them.

My hon. Friend the Member for Newport West (Paul Flynn) and others rightly highlighted issues with the leave campaign, while acknowledging that the remain campaign did not get it right either—both sides have questions to answer about how their campaigns were run. Nevertheless, the basic problem of the choice between a known and an unknown will not have changed before April 2019. The only matters that we will have negotiated over the next 10 months, because they have to be agreed by then, are our departure, the basic agreement for which was settled on Friday; the transitional arrangements, which are critical; and the broad direction of travel for our future relationship. The detail of our understanding of how we will work with the EU27 will not be settled before we depart the European Union in April 2019, so a vote within that timeframe will have many of the same problems as the 2016 vote.

[Tom Brake]

I understand what the hon. Gentleman says, but does he agree that a vote next October, say, would at least have the advantage of taking place against a background of a known settlement deal and a reasonable understanding of the impact on EU and UK citizens? It might still leave a big question mark over the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, and we might still not have a detailed idea of the trade relationship, but in all probability we would have at least a heads of agreement about where the relationship is likely to go. Is that not a lot better than what we had on 23 June last year?

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Walker]

I say to the hon. Lady that we have been very clear that we respect the position of the European Union but the four freedoms are inseparable, and therefore the Prime Minister was clear in her balanced Florence speech that our approach will be to come outside the single market and the customs union, and to negotiate a new relationship with the European Union, which I will come to.

The 2016 referendum was one of the biggest democratic exercises in British history. Turnout was high, at 72%, and more than 33 million people had their say. As my hon. Friend the Member for North East Derbyshire made clear, at that time the Government made the implications regarding the decision that people were taking very clear.

Like my hon. Friend the Member for East Renfrewshire (Paul Masterton), I campaigned for a different outcome, but I also spoke out repeatedly in this House, both before and during the passage of legislation for a referendum, about trusting people on this matter. As I have emphasised to the House before, and as I think the hon. Member for Sheffield Central made very clear, this was not a decision made after just a few weeks of campaigning, but one that came after a debate that had exercised this House and our country for decades. Indeed, as the hon. Gentleman said, this debate should not be seen as a debate on a second referendum so much as a debate on a third referendum, but each of those previous referendums were billed as the decision for a generation and we should respect that.

[Tom Brake]

Will the Minister give way?

[Mr Walker]

In a moment; I will make a little progress first.

Two of the petitions under discussion suggest that we hold a new referendum on the final deal, with the option of revoking article 50. I stress to the House, as many Ministers have done previously, that the Government are committed to delivering the result of the June 2016 referendum. We have been clear that this is a firm matter of policy; article 50 notification will not be withdrawn.

E-petition 200004 suggests that a second referendum should give voters three options. I think that a number of Members have touched on the risks of that. Such a three-way referendum would almost certainly not deliver a majority for any of the scenarios and I strongly advise against any course of action that would end in considerable constitutional uncertainty. The people of the United Kingdom have already delivered a mandate with a majority, and the Government are committed to deliver on that.

Last September, when a similar petition was brought before this House for debate, it had more than 4 million signatures. Despite that, however, the motion failed to garner a single Member of this House to speak in favour of it during the debate. The hon. Member for Swansea West (Geraint Davies) subsequently said to me that he would have been at that debate to speak in favour of it, had not business kept him elsewhere; I think he more than made up for that in his long contribution today.

[Tom Brake]

rose—

[Geraint Davies]

rose—

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Walker]

I should perhaps ask the hon. Gentleman to give way. He is in danger of making another speech. I do not share his pessimism. I believe we can achieve a successful outcome to the process. The premise of his question is, therefore, wrong.

The hon. Member for Glenrothes (Peter Grant) made an interesting speech. He talked about manifestos and elections. Indeed, it is worth noting that at the general election earlier this year more than 85% of people voted for parties that were committed to respecting the result of the referendum. Both the Labour and the Conservative party manifestos made such a commitment clear. The people have spoken and the Government have made it clear that we have listened. Rather than second-guess the British people’s decision to leave the European Union with a second or third referendum, the challenge now is to make a success of it, and that is how we are approaching the negotiations—anticipating success, not failure

It is vital that we try to reach an agreement that builds a strong relationship between Britain and the EU, as neighbours, allies and partners. I respect the point that the hon. Member for York Central (Rachael Maskell) made—indeed, it is one I have made in previous debates, including the last time we had one on the referendum—but we need to bring people together through that process, and I believe that the Prime Minister’s speeches in Florence and at Lancaster House set out to do exactly that.

[Tom Brake]

Given that the Minister was a remain supporter, have his reasons for supporting remain, which presumably were about the economy, changed and does he now think that Brexit will be a bonanza for the UK? Given that we will have to pay €40 billion as a down payment for the settlement bill, does he believe that the Government will be in a position to deliver on the genuine issues that were raised by leave supporters with regard to housing, infrastructure, skills, jobs and so on?

[Mr Walker]

I disagree with almost every part of the right hon. Gentleman’s intervention. I believe we will be in a position to deliver more housing. We have already delivered more jobs and we will, I believe, continue to do so. We can make a success of the process. Indeed, I was asked a similar question on local radio over the weekend, and was able to say that as a result of the progress made in recent weeks I am more confident than ever before about the outcome of the process.

I ask the House to consider, as my hon. Friend the Member for Cleethorpes (Martin Vickers) clearly pointed out, the message that would be sent to the electorate if we failed to respect the outcome of the referendum. It would risk public trust in this institution. As the Prime Minister said recently, this is about more than the decision to leave the EU; it is about whether the public can trust their politicians to put in place the decision they took. The British people can trust this Government to honour the referendum result and to get the best deal possible. We recognise that to do otherwise would be to undermine the decision of the British people, and that would have worrying implications for our democracy.