Brexit Deal: Referendum

Susan Elan Jones Excerpts

Monday 11th December 2017 Westminster Hall

[Susan Elan Jones (Clwyd South) (Lab)]

I beg to move,

That this House has considered e-petitions 200004, 187570, 193282 and 200311 relating to a referendum on the deal for the UK’s exit from the European Union.

It is a great pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Sir David, and a real privilege to lead this important debate on behalf of the Petitions Committee. This place is not short of a debate or two on Brexit—in fact, the Prime Minister is making a statement as we speak—but this debate is rather different from all the others because it is based on petitions signed by a very large number of people from across the length and breadth of our country. I thank the proposers of all the petitions and all the signatories. Looking around at the Members here today, I think we are going to hear a wide diversity of opinions.

We are here to debate themes expressed in four petitions. Like the rest of the country, they are not all of one mind on Brexit and they do not express a single standpoint. The petition that has by far the largest number of signatures—136,789 when I last looked—calls for a referendum on the final Brexit deal:

“We, the undersigned, call upon HM Government to give the people of this country the final say on the Brexit deal negotiated by the UK and EU. This would be done through a referendum that would take place prior to the April 2019 exit date.

The referendum would allow for three options:

(1) To revoke Article 50, thereby keeping Britain in the EU

(2) To reject the UK-EU deal and leave the EU

(3) To accept the UK-EU deal and leave the EU

If no agreement has been negotiated by the UK and EU before the date of the referendum, then the third option could be removed. If all three options remain, it may be necessary for the vote to take place using a Single Transferable Vote to ensure no option is disadvantaged. Regardless of whether individuals voted to remain or leave the EU in the June 2016 EU referendum, everyone should have a chance to decide their future based on the final agreement negotiated between the UK and EU.”

[Tom Brake (Carshalton and Wallington) (LD)]

Does the hon. Lady think that, by signing the petition, people have in fact been expressing the will of the people?

[Susan Elan Jones]

They are certainly expressing their own views by signing the petition. I always think it is healthy for such petitions to be tabled. These are part of a very important debate.

The first petition is not dissimilar to another petition that calls for the final Brexit deal to be put to a referendum, with revoking article 50 as an option. On the other side of the coin, there is a petition that calls for the rejection of all demands from the EU for penalty charges for Brexit. Finally, the fourth petition calls for no referendum on the final deal between the UK and the European Union. The petitioners do not mince their words one bit:

“The attempts to propose yet another referendum and pose a set of questions to the British public on the final deal is a distasteful proposal, considering we were already given a free and fair referendum last year, to now agree to another referendum would be an appalling waste of taxpayers’ money and send out the wrong message to the British public that the vote last year was meaningless.

The referendum should not be re-run just to placate individuals unable to accept a democratic decision”.

There we have it. Therein lies our problem. Brexit is a subject about which we all think different things, and our country is deeply polarised.

Back in the day—it seems such a long time ago—when Prime Minister Cameron was listening to his focus groups, it all seemed so simple: offer a referendum on EU membership, unite the Tory party with a pledge, and ensure that enough UK Independence party voters come on side to beat Labour in the marginal seats in the 2015 general election. That bit seemed to work for him, but the next bit of the plot did not go quite so well. Try as team Cameron and other remainers might, they did not get a remain vote.

There have been many interpretations of the 2016 referendum campaign and result. It is certainly difficult to find a new one, but I have not been shy of trying. For all I have read and heard about this subject, I do not think that any other commentator has used one of Aesop’s fables to press their case. Allow me to try to remedy that omission. I think the little tale of the goat kid and the wolf explains perfectly what is happening— I should inform you that it is only a very short tale, Sir David.

“A Kid, returning without protection from the pasture, was pursued by a Wolf. He turned round, and said to the Wolf: ‘I know, friend Wolf, that I must be your prey; but before I die, I would ask of you one favor, that you will play me a tune, to which I may dance.’ The Wolf complied, and while he was piping, and the Kid was dancing, the hounds, hearing the sound, came up and gave chase to the Wolf. The Wolf, turning to the Kid, said: ‘It is just what I deserve; for I, who am only a butcher, should not have turned piper to please you.’”

The official moral of the tale is that everyone should keep their own colours. My adapted version of the moral is this: if one believes that Brexit is a lot of old cobblers, do not introduce an initial referendum on the subject. However, I hasten to add, I am speaking for myself and no one else. With the referendum genie firmly out of the bottle, we need to ask whether there is a case for one before the April 2019 exit date.

According to Survation, in an opinion poll for The Mail on Sunday, 49.5% of voters now want a referendum on the final deal, compared with 34.2% who definitely do not and 16.3% who say they do not know. Intriguingly, according to the same poll, 34% of the 2016 leave voters want such a referendum. That should not be such a great surprise. It is a view that Ross Clark expresses with great lucidity in The Spectator magazine:

“If we going to be forced to fund EU projects and not have full freedom to set our own regulations and cut our own trade deals with the rest of the world I can’t see the point of leaving at all. If we are not prepared to transform ourselves into a Singapore, recasting Britain as an unashamed honeypot for business and enterprise then Brexit will have been a waste of time and money. If we are going to remain a European-model social democratic country then we might as well remain in a club of other European social democracies”.

Now, I disagree profoundly with Mr Clark’s political views and with what he wants for our country, but his logic relating to a referendum on the final deal makes perfect sense. He also makes a compelling argument for holding a multi-option referendum, with electors expressing a first and second-preference vote.

[Daniel Zeichner (Cambridge) (Lab)]

My hon. Friend is making a wonderful speech. Has she had the opportunity to look at some of the work that the Constitution Unit has done through citizens’ juries, and similar work by Catherine Barnard at the University of Cambridge? People who voted to leave, when asked what they actually want, move in quite a sophisticated way, which demonstrates that the real question is not whether we are leaving, but what we want to go to next. On that issue, it is entirely legitimate to give the decision back to the British people. Why should anyone object to that?

[Susan Elan Jones]

I confess that I have not actually read that, but I should be delighted to do so, because it sounds a very thoughtful and extensive piece of research. I am grateful to my hon. Friend for raising it.

One of the strongest arguments for holding a referendum lies in the gap between the promises that were made on what Brexit would be and what has in fact happened in the meantime. Allow me to quote the Foreign Secretary—I like quoting him, ever since he wrote in a newspaper article three days after the general election that my seat had been won by the Conservatives. At that point I started to question the accuracy of some of his statements. Initially he told us that he would vote to stay in the single market. In the aftermath of the referendum, he wrote in The Daily Telegraph that

“there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market”,

adding for good measure that there was no “great rush” for Britain to extricate itself from the EU.

This past weekend the Foreign Secretary took to the great literary medium of Twitter to say that, after meeting the Prime Minister, he

“found her totally determined that ‘full alignment’ means compatibility with taking back control of our money, laws and borders.”

What on earth is that supposed to mean? But it is interesting. Even more interesting, of course, was the glorious red bus that travelled the length and breadth of the land proudly proclaiming that a vote to leave would mean £350 million extra per week for the NHS. To my mind, the bus was the evidence equivalent of the chap going around with a sign saying that Elvis is still alive. Unfortunately, however, the ramifications are rather greater.

Here are a few other considerations. Were we ever told that in the 2017 Budget we would see the Chancellor set aside £3 billion over the next two years to pay for the administrative costs of preparing for Brexit—more than the £2.8 billion granted for the NHS in the same Budget? What of the downgrading in growth forecasts and the fall in our credit ratings? What of the very real concerns about jobs, as well as consumer, environmental and labour standards? What of the real issues of respect for the devolved Administrations and for our parliamentary institutions? What of probable Russian meddling in the referendum process itself? What of the elusive impact assessments, which apparently have vanished into thin air?

At the end of June the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union said that analyses were being done of 50 to 60 sectors. By 25 October we were being told that not only did they exist but they were “in excruciating detail”. Last week, however, when asked by the Chair of the Exiting the European Union Committee, my right hon. Friend the Member for Leeds Central (Hilary Benn), whether the Government had undertaken any impact assessments, the Secretary of State’s answer was no. This is not Harry Potter and the Ministry of Magic; it is supposed to be the serious business of the Government preparing for the biggest change our country has seen since the second world war. What in heaven’s name are we supposed to make of the obvious governmental chaos in this area?

What of a final divorce settlement, which will cost somewhere between £36 billion and £39 billion according to official sources, but up to £100 billion according to a former Brexit Minister? That represents “total capitulation”, according to one fulminating Daily Telegraph columnist—there is nothing like The Daily Telegraph when it fulminates, is there? Then there are the serious economic and constitutional issues relating to the Irish border and full regulatory alignment. What of the recent study by the Bank of England, which stated that a “disorderly” Brexit could cause

“a wide range of UK macroeconomic risks”,

such as a massive fall in the value of the pound?

[Julian Knight (Solihull) (Con)]

The hon. Lady is making a typically engaging speech. The petitions are obviously well-intentioned and sincere, but they ignore the realpolitik of negotiation. In my recent trip to Germany with the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport Committee, we found that there was real enthusiasm for pulling any levers whatsoever to try to stop Brexit. Surely talk of a second referendum just adds succour to those who wish in effect to bring about a punishment Brexit so that there is no Brexit at all.

[Susan Elan Jones]

I am not sure that the Tory writing in The Spectator would agree with the hon. Gentleman. If I read the article correctly, the writer was trying to save the Government and to stop the Conservatives knocking the spots off each other, so I am not sure that what the hon. Gentleman said is true. I will move on to some of the points he makes later.

[Paul Flynn (Newport West) (Lab)]

During the first referendum I said that the choice was between Operation Fear and Operation Lies. I believe that we need to have a second referendum. In the same way, Wales voted first against devolution and then for devolution. The public will have a clear idea of what the nightmare of Brexit will mean in a few months’ time. Do they not need to have their second vote, as second thoughts are always superior to first thoughts?

[Susan Elan Jones]

As ever, my hon. Friend makes his point well.

Let me return to that recent risk study by the Bank of England. In its stress test for British banks, the Bank modelled a 4.7% fall in output, a 27% devaluation of the pound against the dollar, and a devaluation of a third in house prices. Indeed, what if—to quote the Brexit Secretary—some of our key decision makers have just “slightly misspoke”? One minute the first part of a deal seems to have been done, and the next we are told that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Then, in the midst of it all, it seems that the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs has had a moment of epiphany—we all like those moments. Recognising that there may be trouble ahead, he reassures us:

“If the British people dislike the arrangement we have negotiated with the EU, the agreement will allow a future government to diverge.”

But would it not be much cleaner, quicker and simpler just to put the final deal to the British public?

[Peter Grant (Glenrothes) (SNP)]

The hon. Lady is making a passionate and carefully thought out argument. Is it not also the case that after we have left the EU the Environment Secretary, or anyone else, will be unable to offer the United Kingdom the chance to come back in, because as soon as the United Kingdom is out we would fail the fundamental test of democracy? We would not be allowed back in because too many of the legislators in Parliament are not elected.

[Susan Elan Jones]

The hon. Gentleman makes a very interesting point.

[Paul Masterton (East Renfrewshire) (Con)]

The hon. Lady said right at the start of her engaging speech that the referendum had left the country polarised and divided. Would a second referendum make the country more or less polarised and divided?

[Susan Elan Jones]

It would be a different sort of referendum because it would be based on the final deal —but I am coming to that, if I get there.

“Realpolitik” was mentioned by the hon. Gentleman who has just been to Germany, the hon. Member for Solihull (Julian Knight). I will bring that word in at this point, because there are realpolitik reasons for having a referendum on the final deal. The Government might claim to be trenchantly opposed to a referendum—I suspect that is what the Minister will say today—but might it not help dig them out of what appears to be an awful hole they are in? Would the idea not also generate real appeal at the other end of the political spectrum—and, I am sure, a cheer or two at next summer’s Glastonbury festival?

Opponents of any sort of referendum in 2019 will take a very different view of all that. They might say that referendums, “just aren’t very British”; that we are not Switzerland, California or Latin America and we do not do that sort of thing—or not very often. Opponents might ask what supporters of a second referendum really want—is it for Parliament to dissolve a result that it does not like until it gets one that it does, which is the political equivalent of a penalty shoot-out that keeps going until the preferred team wins.

There is also the argument that the Archbishop of Canterbury put forward last March, when their lordships considered the Government’s European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill on Report and Third Reading. The archbishop disagreed with those who said that the process for securing Brexit was simple. He stated:

“It would be dangerous, unwise and wrong to reduce the substance of the terms on which we exit the European Union to the result of a binary yes/no choice taken last summer, and the Government should avoid any inclination to oversimplify the outcome of the most complex peacetime negotiations probably ever to have been undertaken.”

However, he also had this to say:

“neither is the complexity of a further referendum a good way of dealing with the process at the end of negotiation. It will add to our divisions; it will deepen the bitterness…Division of our country is not a mere fact to be navigated around like a rock in a stream but something to be healed, to be challenged and to be changed.”—[Official Report, House of Lords, 7 March 2017; Vol. 779, c. 1213.]

I am far more sympathetic to the need for a referendum on the final deal, and the more I consider the evidence from the start of this debate, the more I move towards that position.

[Dr David Drew (Stroud) (Lab/Co-op)]

I previously supported the referendum. It was the worst time in British politics that I have ever known, and some of us have been involved in British politics for rather a long time. Given that there is every danger that the debate could get worse rather than better, what safeguards would my hon. Friend put in place to ensure that any referendum at least tries to reach a higher level of political debate than the last one?

[Susan Elan Jones]

It will have been going on for rather longer. Some people I had communications from seemed to think that, because I am leading this debate, I would have a role in the final Brexit negotiations. That is a nice idea, and I shared my thoughts with them in some cases. I think that multi-option is very important, because it would bring greater clarity. When I saw the discussion on multi-option, my first thought was, “Gosh, this all sounds painfully Lib Dem”—without meaning any disrespect to anyone—but the options are complicated and we should dignify the debate and a future referendum by making it multi-option.

[Tom Brake]

Does the hon. Lady agree that one way of ensuring that the referendum is different from the previous one might be to appoint an independent arbiter who would look at the claims being made by the different camps? If someone came forward with the ludicrous claim that there will be £350 million a week for the NHS, the arbiter would be able to say, “That is completely out of order. You cannot repeat that phrase.”

[Susan Elan Jones]

I do not think that it will be me making the decision, but that seems like a very sensible point.

Although I am far more sympathetic to the need for a referendum on the final deal than the archbishop was in his speech, he made his case powerfully. I have no doubt that in this House today and on other days, many different viewpoints will be expressed on Brexit issues. I am sure that will be the case in communities the length and breadth of the United Kingdom. One thing that I am far less confident about is that there will be a healing of the divisions anytime soon on this divisive subject. All of us, wherever we stand on the Brexit spectrum, need to be mindful of that.

[Several hon. Members rose—]

--- Later in debate ---

[Lee Rowley]

The hon. Lady has expounded my point perfectly. I do not doubt her resolve, her willingness or her absolute belief; I just happen to disagree with her. I hope that Opposition Members—I am not suggesting that this applies to the hon. Lady—understand and recognise that we have deeply held views as well.

I also heard earlier that if we had a second referendum, it would be a different sort of referendum, as if the first one was invalid or incomprehensive or there was not sufficient discussion. Again, the conversation tended toward the emotional and the lies. Just from the emotion that I have heard expressed in this Chamber today, the conversations that have occurred and the use of terms such as catastrophe, exodus, dire, crisis, lies, death row and malicious, I do not believe that there would be anything less than the kind of emotional discussion that we had two years ago, so we should be very careful what we wish for.

I have heard conversations about multi-options. Even though I understand in principle the point made by the hon. Member for Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones), and I know that one of the e-petitions under discussion suggests multi-options, I wonder whether, if we proposed a second referendum with multi-options, we would all be here in three or four years’ time talking about one option that got 42% of the vote and the other two options that got a smaller proportion of the vote, and then delegitimising the 42% of the vote option because it did not manage 50 plus one, which is the usual yardstick for success.

Then we get into the slightly more absurd discussions, which I know were not entirely serious on the part of some people who have commented, about vote weighting or the fact that some people are dying and therefore their vote is less valid. I just think we have to be much more careful. I agree with the hon. Member for York Central (Rachael Maskell) that we need to be much more careful about how we debate and discuss this matter, because my constituency is a constituency of honourable people who understand the challenges and have researched the issue and watched the television, but who still voted 63% leave. They and I voted to leave because we legitimately think that that decision means that our country will be better in the long term.

I want to talk briefly about the idea perpetuated by some that people did not know what they were voting for. We have to accept the principle that people vote for many different reasons. I would not like to suggest that that is not the case, but I know that the thing that was closest to what people understood was happening on the day was the leaflet the Government sent out to every household in this country. When I reread that this morning in preparation for this discussion, it was pretty clear to me what was happening. Nothing in the leaflet mentioned a second referendum. It stated:

“On Thursday, 23 June there will be a referendum”—

singular. “It’s your opportunity”—there was no multitude of opportunities. “It’s a big decision”—singular. It is “One” decision, not decisions plural. The leaflet goes on to say that it is a

“once in a generation decision”—

not a twice in a generation—and:

“The government will implement what you decide.”

That leaflet came through my letterbox in north Derbyshire and the proposition was absolutely clear to me and to all of my residents in Dronfield, Cutthorpe, Eckington and Killamarsh. It is incumbent on hon. Members that we recognise and honour that. I reject totally and completely the notion that people did not understand what they were voting for. They understood what they were voting for. They understood the propositions that were on the table. They understood, if I am honest, the things on both sides of the argument that went too far. I will not talk about them individually, but I was unhappy, as a leave voter, with some of the suggestions from the remain camp, which are also in the leaflet, about how there would be almost an economic collapse. We have to be very careful about how we discuss this matter, where we are going with it and what we want the outcome to be.

[Susan Elan Jones]

I am reluctant to intervene, having made the opening speech, but I would like to ask the hon. Gentleman one question. I am talking not about my personal view on this issue, but about the points raised by Ross Clark in The Spectator. His view is that what is being implemented by the Government is not what he voted for, and that was the fear, because it was not as simple as a binary choice. He is a very traditional conservative with a certain view that is very much against further association with the European Union. What would the hon. Gentleman say to people such as him?

[Lee Rowley]

I have not read the article the hon. Lady is referring to, but I will address the principle. What she outlines explains beautifully why the sorts of intellectual contortions that we have heard in this debate over the past hour and a half, and elsewhere, will ultimately not work. We can make an assessment about why some people voted one way and others voted another way, but there are 30 million different reasons that people voted for it. We can make an assessment about whether the voting system was correct, or whether the right people voted, and we can make an assessment about whether the debate—before, during and after the vote—was appropriate, but ultimately those are our assessments, not facts. Assumptions have been bandied around far too much over the past year; the whole discussion has been about assumptions. When we get into the amorphous mass that we have arrived at, an hour and a half into this discussion, it is not possible to get much further, so we have to boil it down to the simple point: people voted and made a decision, and ultimately we have to implement what the people decided.

--- Later in debate ---

[Susan Elan Jones]

Will the Minister give way?

[Mr Walker]

I need to make a little progress. I will give way to the hon. Lady in a moment. As we have said, both House of Parliament will have the opportunity to vote on the final agreement reached with the EU as soon as possible after the deal is agreed, and it will be a vote on whether to accept the deal or move ahead without one. But we have gone further. The withdrawal agreement and implementation Bill will give Parliament further time to debate and scrutinise the final agreement we strike with the EU. Although parliamentary scrutiny is important, I remind the House that those will not be opportunities to reverse the instruction of the people of the United Kingdom. We will be leaving the EU.

Turning to negotiations, we have reached an extremely significant point.

[Susan Elan Jones]

rose—

[Rachael Maskell]

rose—

[Mr Walker]

I will give way to the hon. Member for Clwyd South, who moved the motion, but I am afraid that will probably have to be the last intervention.

[Susan Elan Jones]

I credit the Minister with seemingly being one of the few in government who really does not misspeak, and that is rather good. Earlier, he said that article 50 will not be withdrawn, but he did not say that it cannot be revoked. Am I correct in my hearing?

[Mr Walker]

The hon. Lady has, I think, correctly quoted me.

The UK and EU negotiating teams’ joint report published on Friday highlights the progress already made in negotiations in three areas. The first area is a fair deal on citizens’ rights, which allows for UK and EU citizens to get on with their lives broadly as now, in the country in which they live. The hon. Member for Swansea West spoke about swapping elderly Brits for young EU citizens. Quite apart from that playing to a stereotype, which I know many British people who live in EU countries and contribute to the economies of those countries resent, I say to him that it was never the intention of anyone in the process to force people to leave their homes. I am glad that an agreement has been reached to give reassurance to 4 million citizens—both EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU.

The second area is an agreement on the island of Ireland, and the situation in Northern Ireland, about which the hon. Member for Glenrothes spoke passionately. The agreement preserves the territorial integrity of the UK and the progress, peace and stability that has been brought about by the Belfast agreement. The solution will see no hard border, and no physical infrastructure at it. The third area is a financial settlement that honours the commitments we undertook as a member of the EU, as we said we would. It is a fair delivery of our obligations, in the light of the spirit of our future partnership.

On that last point, I would like to take the opportunity to respond specifically to e-petition 187570, which refers to penalty charges. Let me be clear: there is no suggestion that the UK will pay a penalty charge for leaving the EU. Both parties have now agreed a methodology for a fair settlement of the UK’s rights and obligations as a departing member, in accordance with the law and in the spirit of the UK’s continuing partnership with the EU.

The joint report is, overall, an important step forward for both sides and demonstrates the interests we share in managing our exit smoothly, and in moving the negotiations on. Above all, it signals that we now have a common understanding, and it is clear that both sides want to move forward together towards a discussion of our future relationship. I commend my hon. Friend the Member for East Renfrewshire on engaging with that in his contribution and on showing the approach we can take to making a success of it.

As we approach the December European Council on Thursday, we look forward to progressing the negotiations in the mutual interest of the UK and the EU. Any commitment to a second referendum would actively undermine our negotiating position. As my hon. Friend the Member for Solihull (Julian Knight), who is no longer in his place, pointed out in an intervention, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union has noted:

“The consequence of putting a second referendum at the end of the negotiation is to invite every single member of the European Union who does not want us to leave to propose the worst possible deal, in the hope that we will change our mind”.—[Official Report, 24 January 2017; Vol. 620, c. 176.]

We are not going to do that. We will seek the best deal for the UK and we intend to negotiate under the best possible conditions. To do otherwise would be irresponsible in the extreme.

Our position is clear: there will be no second referendum. Our focus should now be on making a success of Brexit and attempting to get the best deal possible, an agreement that is in the interests of the United Kingdom and the European Union and one that takes in both economic and security co-operation. It is the Government’s duty to deliver for this country and reach a desirable final agreement, and we will do just that.

[Susan Elan Jones]

We have had a comprehensive debate, but it will not be the last on the subject. I am sure that it will be raised many more times on the Floor of the House and, probably just as significantly, across our country.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House has considered e-petitions 200004, 187570, 193282 and 200311 relating to a referendum on the deal for the UK’s exit from the European Union.