Scotland: General Election and Constitutional Future

Toby Perkins Excerpts

Wednesday 17th March 2021 Commons Chamber

[Ian Murray]

When I pose the challenge to the hon. Gentleman, “Let’s be honest with each other” the answer comes back, “No”. What is at stake at the elections on 6 May is how Scotland recovers from the worst health and economic crisis since the second world war. To plunge the country into another divisive independence referendum debate, while people are more worried about their lives, their livelihoods and the health of their friends and their family, is absolutely deplorable.

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

My hon. Friend is making a characteristically excellent speech. What he says about the timing of the referendum is something that polling is clear about. While the polling has moved up and down on the subject of whether there should be independence, it is absolutely clear that even the majority of those who are in favour of independence do not think that we should have a referendum right now. What are those people supposed to do when they go to vote in May? If they vote for the Scottish National party, they will be seen as having endorsed a referendum that they themselves do not think should happen right now.

[Ian Murray]

My hon. Friend hits the nail on the head because the priorities of the Scottish people are health, education, covid recovery, the economy, jobs and livelihoods. That is what is important to the Scottish people and poll after poll after poll shows that.

Let us be honest with each other. On the oil price, $114 a barrel was underpinning the entire Scottish economy; it has been less than half of that since the last referendum. On deficits and debt, how will they be dealt with? On pensions, SNP candidates in constituencies up and down Scotland are delivering leaflets promising pensioners that they will double the state pension. Let us be honest with each other. And how would the SNP work with the rest of the UK with regards to the EU?

--- Later in debate ---

[Wes Streeting (Ilford North) (Lab)]

It is a privilege to speak in this important debate. It is a debate that people in England and right across the UK need to start paying greater attention to, because while I fully respect that the future of Scotland is one to be determined by the Scottish people—indeed, the Labour party’s position on Scottish independence and the Union is one that is determined and led by the Scottish Labour party—the decision that is taken by the people of Scotland will have ramifications right across the rest of the Union.

The argument I want to make on the part of the Union is both pragmatic and principled. The pragmatic argument is, “Why now?” Why now, in the midst of a global pandemic of a type we have not seen during most of our lifetimes and when the challenge is not simply to roll out the vaccine but to build the recovery? Why now would we plunge not just Scotland but the entire United Kingdom into a constitutional row consuming all the focus and all the resources when the focus must be on rebuilding our country? Why now, in the midst of extracting ourselves from one sophisticated political and economic alliance, which we have already seen has caused real challenges and broken promises, would we seek to repeat the same exercise again the very future of our own country?

Then, of course, I look at the record of the Scottish Government, and it becomes perfectly clear why independence will be on page 1 of their manifesto. The alternative is that their record will be on the front cover: 182,000 children left in poverty, even in households where one person is in work; a quarter of all households in fuel poverty, and that was before the pandemic; the NHS 12-week waiting time guarantee not met since 2012 and breached 360,000 times; the four-hour waiting time target not met since 2017 until the pandemic hit; 18-week mental health waiting times; and an employment rate that is actually lower than the United Kingdom rate. That is a record that we would see in the UK Government, too.

[Mr Perkins]

We have heard criticism of the SNP for picking this subject for this debate, but at least this matter is the responsibility of the UK Parliament. Many of the issues that my hon. Friend is raising are the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament, and so would be sensible things for the SNP to be spending the Scottish parliamentary elections debating.

[Wes Streeting]

Indeed—and that brings me to education, which is my hon. Friend’s passion, and mine. The number of teachers in Scotland is down by 1,700 since 2007; the promise to cap class sizes is broken; spending per pupil is down; and on the Scottish Government’s central challenge—to close the attainment gap—they are failing. Indeed, the First Minister herself said:

“Let me be clear—I want to be judged on this. If you are not, as First Minister, prepared to put your neck on the line on the education of our young people then what are you prepared to. It really matters.”

It is time for the First Minister to account for the record of educational failure in Scotland, because on class sizes, standards and the attainment gap, the record in Scotland is as abysmal as that of the Tories in the United Kingdom.

--- Later in debate ---

[Mr Toby Perkins (Chesterfield) (Lab)]

I am not a mongrel. I am one of the few people speaking in the debate who does not have any Scottish blood, but I very much enjoyed the time that I spent campaigning in Scotland during the independence referendum in 2014. I went up to Scotland at a time when there were other elections in the UK because it was crucial for me to say to people that we in England desperately want Scotland to stay with the United Kingdom and be a part of our Union. While we made the argument that we thought it was in Scotland’s best interests to stay a part of that Union, we also felt passionately that the UK would be much weaker without Scotland. It would be heartbreaking if Scotland were to leave, but I accept that it is a choice for the Scottish people.

What is really important is the question of when that referendum should happen. We had the debate in 2014. The hon. and learned Member for Edinburgh South West (Joanna Cherry) said that we could have one every seven years or so, but it is clear that she wants to keep having the debate time and again in the hope that one time, on one day, they might just get over the line by 0.1%, and then there are no more referendums—then it will be over and the decision has been made.

The referendum in 2014 was pretty decisive, with 55% to 45% in favour of remaining in the Union. We should remember that more people in Scotland voted to stay in the United Kingdom than voted to stay a part of the European Union. We keep hearing from the SNP that Scotland is being dragged out of the European Union against its will, but more Scottish people voted to remain a part of the UK than voted to remain a part of the European Union. Opinion polls go up and down—we all know that in all walks of life—but one thing has been consistent: even people who want independence for Scotland do not think now is the time for it to happen. Those polls are really consistent.

[Alan Brown]

If the hon. Member properly analyses the polls, he will see that they show that the majority of people do want a referendum in the next few years, so that is wrong. He rightly acknowledged that it is for the Scottish people to decide, so when does he think the Scottish people should be allowed to make that decision, as it were?

[Mr Perkins]

It is a matter for the UK Government. It would be one thing for the SNP to go into a general election campaign saying, “A vote for us is about independence,” but it is not the responsibility of the Scottish Parliament, so it is very odd for the SNP to ask people to re-elect it on that basis.

The question I ask SNP Members is, how should someone vote this May if they want independence but think we should have a referendum in a few years’ time, rather than now? Should they vote for the SNP, knowing that the SNP will claim that that is a vote in favour of a referendum? We heard from my hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South (Ian Murray) about many of the failings of the SNP Administration in Edinburgh. What about someone who thinks that the SNP is doing a good job and wants to carry on electing an SNP Government to run the Scottish Parliament but does not want independence? How should they vote, given that they know that, if they vote for the SNP because they want Nicola Sturgeon to continue being First Minister, that will be taken as a vote for independence? I am not getting any interventions on this. I am asking: how should these people vote?

[Richard Thomson (Gordon) (SNP)]

The answer in both cases is surely to vote SNP, because the decision about independence is a separate one—for a separate referendum. It is to decouple the issues. That is why we support a referendum.

[Mr Perkins]

I am grateful to the hon. Member for that point; it is a really important one. The hon. Member for Edinburgh East (Tommy Sheppard) was saying earlier, “If they vote SNP, they know what they are voting for: they’re voting for an independence referendum”, but the hon. Member for Gordon (Richard Thomson) is saying, “No, if they want an SNP Government, they should vote for us and the referendum is a question on another day.” The mandate that the hon. Member for Edinburgh East was claiming at the start is not actually a legitimate one because it will actually lead to exactly what has just been said. I am grateful for that clarification.

In the event that Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, there will be a huge economic hit to Scotland. There will also be a huge hit to England. I have businesses in my constituency that have just discovered how difficult it now is to sell into the European Union as a result of Brexit. That is exactly what will happen to businesses attempting to trade either side of the Scottish border in the event that Scotland goes independent.

My hon. Friend the Member for Edinburgh South listed a variety of questions about independence that we never have a debate on and that remain unanswered. I was totally against Brexit, the things that we warned about in that respect are in many ways coming true, and there is no question but that it makes Scottish independence far more economically reckless than it would have been back in 2014. The idea that we would impose that on either English or Scottish businesses is a terrible mistake.

I really look forward to the elections in May. I hope that the Scottish people will look at the Labour party anew under the leadership of Anas Sarwar, who has started absolutely fantastically. I really hope that they will consider very carefully what they have just heard—that is, if they do not want an independence referendum right now, they should not vote SNP, because their vote will be taken as support for that.