Public Service Pensions

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Tuesday 20th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[Danny Alexander]

The number of new starters in the private sector who can look forward to a defined benefit scheme is very small. The number of open defined benefit schemes is decreasing, but that should not deflect us from our wish to continue to provide defined benefit pensions in the public sector, which are a right and proper part of the reward for a lifetime’s commitment to serving the public.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The Chief Secretary said of the civil service scheme: “It is disappointing that the PCS and Unite have not supported the heads of agreement and walked away from the talks”. Some might argue that they had been excluded. Be that as it may, he made a virtue of staying at the table, so what is he going to do to re-engage with Unite and the PCS to avoid giving the impression that it is his Government who are simply spoiling for a fight?

Banking Commission Report

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Monday 19th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Getting a lecture on “splitism” from the shadow Chancellor, who has been the biggest source of division in the House over the 10 years that I have been in Parliament, adds to his lessons on how to regulate banks properly as something to treasure, but this document is a very good advertisement for the coalition Government and the work that we have done with the Business Secretary.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank the Chancellor for the statement, and for much of what was in it on Lloyds divestment, competition, account switching, retail ring-fencing and the final 2019 implementation date. I hope that that implementation will do nothing to weaken small and medium-sized enterprise lending, but what in particular did he mean by “RBS will make further significant reductions in the investment bank”? Can he put a cash figure on that? How much deleveraging does he see taking place? What does he envisage being sold off? Will it be in the UK or overseas? We need certainty about RBS’s future, so can we have some detail today, and will he confirm that he does not intend to undermine the independence of the board, notwithstanding the fact that the Government are the major shareholder?

[Mr Osborne]

The hon. Gentleman asks me not to undermine the independence of the board and, then, to provide all sorts of detail on exactly what the board should now do, so let me say this. I know that the Royal Bank of Scotland is a very important employer in Scotland and a very important part of the Scottish economy. We want to see it focused on its UK businesses, on UK corporate and individual customers, and its investment bank should support that service. The Royal Bank of Scotland management have also come to that conclusion, and in the coming months they will set out further details on how they are going to do that work, but it is a significant change of direction for the bank.

Royal Bank of Scotland (FSA Report)

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Monday 12th December 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hoban]

My hon. Friend is right to recognise that the quality of supervision needs to be higher than it was in the pre-crisis days. The need for much more engagement by better qualified banking supervisors is a priority not just for the FSA but for the Bank of England, which will be introducing measures for precisely that purpose.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The Minister said that the FSA had failed to challenge the RBS management sufficiently over its decisions. That is a masterful understatement. In October 2007 the FSA had precisely four and a half staff in RBS: half a manager and four team members. It was possibly the biggest bank in the world, it was systemically important, and its asset base was bigger than the GDP of the United Kingdom. Will the Minister guarantee that, irrespective of the future shape of banking and regulation, the RBS’s successors—the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority—will always have enough of the right people in such systemically important banks, so that we never encounter such a situation again?

[Mr Hoban]

That is an important question. I referred earlier to the pressure under which Tony Blair put the FSA to adopt a proportionate regulatory regime. One of the examples put to the then Prime Minister about the light-touch quality of the regime was the fact that there were only six people supervising HSBC, and even fewer have been supervising RBS. I understand that there has been almost a fourfold increase in the number of RBS supervisors, and I think that that is a much better approach. We must ensure that there is intrusive, intensive supervision, and that requires not just more resources, but a higher quality of resources.

Autumn Statement

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Tuesday 29th November 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Not only was the future jobs fund primarily aimed at the Government employing people in the public sector, which of course was unsustainable with the very large deficit that Labour was running, but actually it did not work on its own terms, because 50% of the people who used the fund were unemployed within 12 weeks. The youth contract that the Deputy Prime Minister has worked on, which he presented last week, will make a real difference.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

There were two key announcements today. One was the national loan guarantee scheme and the £20 billion of credit easing, and the second was the investment in infrastructure of perhaps £30 billion. When does the Chancellor expect the business finance backed by the scheme to start flowing, and how much infrastructure spend does he expect this year and next, when it will have the biggest effect?

[Mr Osborne]

We are undertaking an ambitious programme of credit easing, and I hope to get it running in the next couple of months. We have to clear the state aid hurdles, and we are working flat out to do that, but I am confident that because we are partly following the European Investment Bank’s scheme in the UK, a lot of the work has already been done. The precise numbers on infrastructure in the next two years are set out in the book.

Fuel Prices

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Tuesday 15th November 2011 Commons Chamber

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I congratulate the hon. Member for Harlow (Robert Halfon) on securing this debate. It is important, and he will know that in the previous Parliament there were a number of debates on the subject and a number of attempts in Finance Bills to introduce a fuel duty regulator—precisely the price stabilisation mechanism that he describes in the motion today.

Going back over such debates from the previous Parliament is quite instructive, because it tells us why there is such anger among the general public. In the report of a debate in 2005 we read that the price of unleaded petrol had risen to 86p a litre, a rise of 6p in six months; by 15 May 2008 it had gone up to something over £1.10 a litre; and by the time of the Finance Bill debate in July 2008 it averaged £1.32 a litre.

The underlying price is more intriguing, however. In 2005 Brent crude had risen to $60 a barrel, up a massive $10 on the previous year. By the time of the debate on the 2007 pre-Budget report it had risen to around $84 a barrel. In the run-up to the 2008 Budget the price was $94 a barrel. As someone mentioned earlier, prices crashed through and spiked at around $140 a barrel. This week the price has stabilised at $114 a barrel, but the price at the pump has risen inexorably.

From 86p a litre in 2005, diesel prices in Dundee this week had risen as high as 140p a litre—£6.40 a gallon. In the constituency of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury diesel was nearly 145p a litre—£6.60 a gallon. In Kirkwall, in the constituency of the Liberal Deputy Chief Whip, the right hon. Member for Orkney and Shetland (Mr Carmichael), diesel is 152p a litre—£6.90 gallon—and in the constituency of my hon. Friend the Member for Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Mr MacNeil) it is almost £1.54 a litre. That is £7 a gallon, so it now costs £90 to fill up the tank of the average family saloon car. One can quickly see why people are so angry.

In our past debates, we heard about support outside Parliament from many organisations. The Road Haulage Association said:

“UK hauliers are struggling as never before to cope with continually rising fuel prices”.

Nothing has changed. The National Farmers Union and the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation said similar things. The Federation of Small Businesses said that it was

“behind the introduction of any mechanism which automatically uses extra tax revenues…to reduce prices at the pumps”.

And, my goodness, we need that now.

[Sheryll Murray (South East Cornwall) (Con)]

The hon. Gentleman mentioned the Scottish Fishermen’s Federation. Does he agree that many fishing vessels can reclaim the duty, so it does not affect them?

[Stewart Hosie]

Indeed, they can. What that organisation said at the time was:

“Transport is…a vital component of the fishing industry and cost increases there have applied even greater pressure, felt more acutely by the more remote fishing areas of the North West and the Northern Isles.”

I was paraphrasing what it said, as we have a whole four minutes each to speak. The point is that the response to spiralling costs under Labour was a fuel duty escalator, not a fuel duty stabiliser. The Labour Government set their face against every attempt to introduce a price stabilisation mechanism and, most cynically of all, increased duty to compensate for the temporary reduction in VAT.

The coalition’s response was to introduce the “fair fuel stabiliser”. That is what they called it. However, instead of using the windfall they already had from the North sea, they engaged in a smash-and-grab raid of £2 billion extra, with an increase in the supplementary charge. Hon. Members will remember that that led EnCore Oil to suggest that no tax would be paid on undeveloped and undiscovered oil. Other organisations said that very large projects were no longer viable because of the surprise Budget move. Chevron warned that the measure had

“shaken investor confidence to the core.”

Everyone was singing from the same hymn sheet except the Chancellor, who said that he

“did not expect investment to be damaged.”—[Official Report, 3 May 2011; Vol. 527, c. 604.]

[Mr MacNeil]

Does my hon. Friend agree that the Chancellor’s reckless smash-and-grab of North sea taxation has endangered investment in Scotland?

[Stewart Hosie]

It has indeed. There were stark and powerful warnings from the sector at the time that went on for a considerable time, and forced some limited changes to the regime. In the cold light of day, this month, the Aberdeen and Grampian chamber of commerce, along with others, carried out a survey that revealed that:

“50% of operators say Chancellor’s tax hike harmed North Sea investment.”

That policy did little to help the haulier and the motorist, but it did a great deal to damage the oil and gas sector.

Of course, it is not just the oil and gas sector and the traditional users of haulage who have been damaged. This week I have been contacted by a building company—a static business, not a haulage business—in my constituency, which told me that over the past few years, fuel as a proportion of its overheads has rocketed to 20%. We are not just causing inflation for goods that are moved, we are not just putting the haulage sector under pressure, we are not just making it difficult for people even to afford to go to work: the increasing cost of fuel as a proportion of overheads is driving other sectors to the wall too. These are very difficult times indeed.

This is only a Back-Bench debate—I am delighted that we have secured it—but the strength of feeling is very clear. There is now a body of opinion saying that constant high price rises, and the spikes in the price at the pump, are damaging the entire economy. I hope that the Minister is listening carefully to what has been said, and that action will be taken quickly.

Jobs and Growth

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Wednesday 12th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

As I have said, the British structural deficit is coming down because of the measures that we are taking, but the proposal put to the House today would push the budget deficit this year into double figures. No country in the world would consider that a sensible approach at a time such as this for a country such as Britain. It is economic nonsense, and I suspect that the hon. Gentleman knows it.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank the Minister for giving way. He is being very generous. May I take him back to his exchange with the shadow Chancellor on IMF quotes? On 20 September, Monsieur Decressin, the senior adviser to the IMF research department, said that the IMF view was that

“policies in…the UK should only be loosened if growth really threatens to slow down substantially, relative to what we are forecasting. For so long as the forecast seems to pan out, there is no reason to change fiscal plans.”

The IMF has set down a marker for growth and, in effect, said that if it falls substantially, as it is doing, it would accept fiscal loosening. Does the Chancellor recognise that if growth continues to flatline or fall, there is at least an argument for fiscal loosening?

[Mr Osborne]

The IMF is clear that on its forecasts, which are some of the more pessimistic forecasts for the UK at the moment, it is not recommending a change in policy stance. That is what it says. It is what the managing director has said; what the article 4 report on the UK said; what the OECD is saying; and what all the business organisations in Britain are saying. That is why the path that the shadow Chancellor has laid out for the country is so incredible and does nothing to deal with the problems that he left to the country.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

This Government’s refusal thus far to countenance a plan B will come back to haunt the Chancellor, the Chief Secretary and the Prime Minister. The current plan to remove the entire structural deficit in the fixed time scale of a single Parliament was incredibly risky to start with, and now appears almost impossible. It was dependent on export growth from a strong eurozone, which is not there. To be fair, the overall trade figures are a little better this year: the balance of trade is £9 billion in the red for the first quarter, but in the second quarter it stood at £24 billion in the red, and the aggregate for the first two quarters is almost as much as last year’s catastrophic £99 billion deficit in the trade in goods out-turn.

The Government’s plan depended on business investment growth of a rather heroic 8% to 11% each and every year, but that is not there either. Indeed, the gross fixed capital investment figures for this year show that investment fell by 2% in the first quarter and is lower than in the same quarter in 2010. Growth is now effectively flatlining, and although borrowing was down between April and August, it is up between August this year and August last year and is forecast to be as much as £46 billion greater. Therefore, something needs to change, not least because according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research it is likely that the entire consolidation plan will cut almost an entire percentage point off GDP growth this year. It has said that

“it remains our view that in the short term fiscal policy is too tight, and a modest loosening would improve prospects for output and employment with little or no negative effect on fiscal credibility.”

If the Government are concerned, as they would be right to be, about the credibility of their plan and if others are saying that a modest loosening, which would help growth, would have no impact on the credibility of the plan, they should listen, not least because if they do not, the entire deficit reduction strategy is at risk, as the NIESR suggests.

On 2 August, the NIESR said that if things go on as they are:

“The Chancellor will miss his primary target of balancing the cyclically adjusted current budget by…around 1 per cent of GDP.”

Perhaps the Chancellor has listened and perhaps that is what he was alluding to in his statement on 11 August when he said that we should be “realistic” about the dangers in the global economy and “set our expectations accordingly.” I pressed him at the time on that and he was not very forthcoming. If he is to change his expectations, he is, as the previous Chancellor said, going to have to change his policy as well.

[Richard Graham]

The Opposition motion, which the hon. Gentleman presumably supports, focuses very much on a plan for jobs and growth. I would like to share with him some statistics that I found with the help of the Library. They show that between 1997 and 2010, when the shadow Chancellor was the previous Government’s chief economic adviser, the number of jobs in business in my constituency shrank by 5,600, or by 13% of the employment work force in the entire constituency. From what I have heard today, plan B really amounts to adding more mortgage costs for families and doing nothing for growth of jobs in the business sector. This Government are doing a lot to help that with structural change. Does he agree?

[Stewart Hosie]

We believe that there has to be a change because this plan is not working. That will involve: direct capital investment, which we know does work, and I shall come on to that; consumer confidence, which is vital; and access to bank finance. The Labour Opposition’s motion is a good tactic to debate this matter and we will back it, because in principle we want to see something done. However, if the hon. Gentleman does not mind, I will concentrate on my proposals.

I have said that there are problems with the Government’s plans. This has not just been about the absence of a strong eurozone to export to or of heroic rates of business investment; it has been about the fact that the forecast rates of growth for this and the next years of 2.3%, 2.8%, 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.7%, as set out in the 2010 Budget, will not be achieved. Indeed, Robert Chote, the head of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility, said that even to achieve a 1.7% growth rate now would require

“quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 1%...and there aren’t many people out there expecting that.”

I suspect that there are no people in here expecting that.

So the Chancellor needs to stimulate now, and the best way of doing so is through direct capital investment. As we know, the OBR has said that the impact multiplier for this is 1:1. It is the most effective form of stimulus that the Government have and they should use it. It is also the area where the Government can make the most damaging cut. I know that he wants to tell me that they are keeping £2 billion more in direct capital investment than Labour planned, but very large cuts are still being made. It was not just the OBR saying this, as the British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association was doing so too. On 23 September, it cited the OBR’s view that

“boosting capital spending is a far more effective way of boosting GDP than cutting VAT, tweaking welfare entitlements or increasing current spending. In fact, the OBR’s multiplier on capital spending is one-for-one…This means that the Government could increase capital spending and still deliver the planned reduction in net debt as a share of GDP.”

So again, there is no lack of credibility in changing policy and there is no impact in the planned reduction of net debt as a share of GDP in changing the policy.

The BVCA goes on to say:

“There are other good reasons for targeting infrastructure. The dramatic cuts to the investment budget that were pushed through last year will weigh substantially on private sector productivity in the years ahead. Capital spending is due to be cut by about a third in cash terms between FY09/10 and FY15/16, implying an even larger real decline.”

So if the UK Government really are serious about private sector growth in the medium and long term, they should be very concerned that a body such as the BVCA is prepared to say that cuts now will weigh substantially on private sector productivity in the years ahead. Of course, its key point is not even that. It states that

“in order to have an immediate impact on activity, the Government would need to start spending money straight away. That could mean dusting off some previously shelved plans, as there is no point in waiting 12 months”—

I think it is right—

“for any boost to be felt.”

That is good advice and I hope the Chancellor is listening.

The Chancellor does not need to focus only on capital investment. He needs to ensure proper access to business finance and that the £75 billion of quantitative and credit easing hits the real economy. Evidence from Japan suggests that bank lending fell during the whole quantitative easing exercise, and evidence here shows that between February 2009 and January 2010, when £200 billion of QE was issued, bank lending fell month on month and has remained below the starting point in every month since. That is extremely damaging. This time, the Chancellor must ensure that that money does not go through a pipe to the banks to pack balance sheets but touches the edges and hits the real economy.

[Mr Love]

Does not the evidence also show that Project Merlin is failing? Does not the evidence also show that credit easing, although it is sensible in itself, will take a long time to bring in? What we need is a credible policy to finance small business.

[Stewart Hosie]

That is absolutely right. I heard the Chancellor say this week that he has considered how the Government might fund business investment directly. There is merit in that. I am prepared to give this term of QE and the credit easing a chance to work, but I tell the Chancellor that if the £75 billion-plus of new electronic money goes to the banks or is used to buy back Government debt and does not hit the real economy, neither the banks nor the Government will be forgiven this time if it fails. Too many businesses are hurting due to a lack of business finance.

[David Rutley (Macclesfield) (Con)]

Will the hon. Gentleman give way?

[Stewart Hosie]

No, I shall stick to the same adage as everyone else and give way twice.

The third thing that needs to be done is to restore consumer confidence and economic security. Fundamentally, that means keeping people in their jobs, and Government and their agencies remain responsible for plenty of jobs. That means that pay policy in the public sector should bring down the salaries of senior people, bonuses should be removed from senior public servants, there should be temporary pay freezes for those on average incomes, help should be provided for those earning under £21,000 and specialist systems and a working wage should be introduced for those earning least of all. However, it also means delivering a no-compulsory-redundancy policy for staff employed by Government, the NHS and the other public bodies when agreement can be reached. We know that this plan—a mix of direct capital investment, confidence, and improved business finance or taking some of the burden off businesses—can work. We have seen it in Scotland, where even with the unemployment figures published today, unemployment is lower, employment is higher and economic inactivity is lower.

We know that such a mix of activity can work and, of course, it is broadly in line with what Christine Lagarde called for in September, when she said that

“countries must act now—and act boldly—to steer their economies through this dangerous new phase of the recovery”.

It also mirrors her comment in August to the Financial Times when she said that

“short-term measures must be supportive of growth, yet economical in terms of the impact on fiscal sustainability, and can include policies supporting employment creation, advancing planned infrastructure and easing adjustment in housing markets.”

There is no reason, other than dogma, not to follow the ideas laid out by those on the Opposition Benches today to kick the economy out of its torpor. I urge the Chancellor to use his autumn statement to do just that. He can call it plan A-plus, he can call it plan B, but he must change, develop and deliver quickly.

Eurozone

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Monday 10th October 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

My hon. Friend makes a very good point. We repeatedly argued that the stress tests should be tougher and more credible, but there were strong vested interests that did not want to see that happen and did not want to confront some of the problems in their own banking system. They are now having to confront those problems, however. The fact that Dexia passed the test, and that when it identified a capital shortfall it was in the low billions of euros across the entire European continent—given that tens of billions of euros were required to deal with the Irish problems that occurred around Christmas—demonstrates that those tests were not credible enough. To be fair, I do not think this is an EBA problem; it is more a problem with the membership of the EBA, but the association is now, with our support and encouragement, finally conducting what I think will be a much more credible set of assumptions for the European banking system.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank the Chancellor for his statement and for giving me early sight of it. He said that the eurozone countries needed to undertake structural reform and to move towards greater fiscal integration—he later mentioned fiscal union—and that that would form part of a comprehensive package that he had been urging. He has not, however, described what he means by fiscal integration or fiscal union. Would they involve the European Union controlling 2% or 3% of countries’ gross domestic product, or 20% or 30%? Would they involve a counter-cyclical stability mechanism, or an enhanced European stability fund? Would the measures be applied uniformly, irrespective of debt ratios or savings ratios? It is important that we hear publicly what the Chancellor is saying in private, if we are to avoid speculation and confusion over the UK’s position when none need exist.

[Mr Osborne]

The debate on how that fiscal union should take shape is just starting in the eurozone, and we can contribute to that debate while ensuring that Britain is not part of it and that Britain’s important national interests are protected in regard to the single market, competition policy and financial services. Key components of the measures will include some transfer of resources: in effect, the European financial stability fund is becoming a sort of central resourcing fund. The measures will also mean greater surveillance and mutual vetoes and the like over each other’s budget policies. I have raised the issue of eurobonds, as have the Italian Finance Minister and the chair of ECOFIN. I think there will be a number of components. In the end, it has to be, in part, a decision for the eurozone itself to take the lead, provided that our interests are protected.

I cannot help but make the observation that one of the things we are learning about the eurozone is that if we have a single currency, we need much greater co-ordination of economic policy. That is rather contrary to the Scottish National party’s approach, which is to maintain a single currency but to have a dis-integration of fiscal co-ordination.

Independent Banking Commission Report

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Monday 12th September 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

Well, it was not much of a golden egg, unfortunately, in recent years. It is important for this country that London, Edinburgh and other centres remain globally competitive and that London remains the pre-eminent global centre for finance. Some of the changes taking place in the City, such as the one I mentioned, involving trying to develop an offshore renminbi market, are all part of London being a competitive place to do business. However, being a competitive place in which to do financial services does not mean that there has to be a huge taxpayer subsidy for universal banks and their retail banking arms in the UK. John Vickers explicitly deals with the competition issue. People might have expected him to come to a different conclusion on this, but one of the interesting things he said was that we should not impose additional capital-to-equity ratios on investment banks, precisely because he does not want us to make them internationally uncompetitive.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

I thank the Chancellor for his statement, and for giving me early sight of it. I congratulate the commission on the report, and particularly on the report’s dealing with the resilience in the banks and its rejection of splitting up the universal banks in favour of flexible ring-fencing. However, the timetable for this is eight years from today until the final implementation. That is necessary because of the complexity and the potential cost to the banks of implementation, but will the Chancellor ensure that the banks do not consider the next eight years to be a hiatus during which they can return to business, and bonuses, as usual? Will he also ensure that he drives forward as many of these recommendations as he can as quickly as possible before the 2019 backstop?

[Mr Osborne]

I will not repeat what I have said about the timetable. Suffice it to say that it is what John Vickers recommended, having really thought about it. This involves a combination of getting the detail right and ensuring that the changes do not unduly damage credit supply in the short term. That is why he has recommended a longer timetable. As he pointed out at his press conference this morning, once we propose such changes and start to legislate for them, some of them will start to happen anyway as banks try to get ahead of the curve—that is certainly what happened with Basel, although they were arguably too quick to get ahead of the curve in that instance—and that is what he anticipates happening when the changes are introduced.

Oral Answers to Questions

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Tuesday 6th September 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Hoban]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Of course, it is part of the previous Government’s legacy that our competitiveness fell so far behind that of our international competitors. That is why we have taken action to reform corporation tax, for example, so that we have one of the best and most competitive regimes in the G20 and more businesses are encouraged to come to the UK. It is also why we are tackling regulation and red tape in the economy, which is why, as I said earlier, we have seen 500,000 net new jobs created in the private sector. That is three and a half jobs in the private sector for every job lost in the public sector, which shows the progress that we have made over the last year.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

Both this Government and the previous one have taken an axe to tax allowances for investment on the supply side of the economy—for example, the abolition of the industrial buildings allowance under Labour and the reduction of the annual investment allowance of £100,000 to only £25,000. Have the Government turned their face away entirely from the reintroduction of tax allowances, or will they listen to representations that demonstrate the positive growth in investment on the supply side from such tax allowances?

[Mr Hoban]

The reforms to allowances were used to help to fund measures such as the reduction in corporation tax rates for large companies and the reduction in the small companies’ tax rate from the 22p proposed by Labour when it was in government to 20p. We are therefore seeing changes in the rate of tax paid by businesses of all sizes, which is helpful in encouraging economic growth and job creation.

Global Economy

Stewart Hosie Excerpts

Thursday 11th August 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Osborne]

The challenge that we and many developed countries face is that banks are shrinking their balance sheets, because they got too big and they lent too much money. They are also hoarding capital because of the current market turbulence. What we are trying to do as a Government is to ensure that, in that process, lending to small and medium businesses is protected and indeed increased. We signed the Merlin agreement with the banks at the beginning of the year to see an increase of 15% in small business lending. The Bank of England will publish the figures tomorrow, so I cannot give them today, but the banks have already indicated that they are on track to meet that 15% increase in small business lending over this year and I am confident that the figures tomorrow will show that that is the case.

[Stewart Hosie (Dundee East) (SNP)]

The June 2010 Budget described the deficit reduction plan as adding £8 billion of tax rises a year from 2014-15 and £32 billion of cuts from 2014-15 every year on top of the £73 billion or so fiscal consolidation that Labour had in mind. It also forecast growth from this year of 2.3%, 2.8%, 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.7%. Those growth figures are now shredded. What will the Chancellor do? Will he increase taxes or cut public spending further, or did he mean by saying that we had to adjust our expectations accordingly that he would change his deficit reduction target?

[Mr Osborne]

We are not proposing for a second to change our deficit reduction target. The target is a structural budget deficit target and was deliberately set as such. The reason we set out those plans in the emergency Budget and went beyond the previous Government’s mantra of halving the budget deficit in four years—not that they had actually written in the proposals to do that—was because on the day we came into office our country’s credit rating was on a negative outlook for a downgrade. Our market interest rates were tracking Spain’s and everyone from the Governor of the Bank of England to the IMF and the CBI was saying that the previous Government’s budget deficit plan was not credible. If we had stuck with that plan and even filled in the blank spaces, we would now be part of the sovereign debt crisis whirlwind that is engulfing other countries.