CPI/RPI Pensions Uprating

Richard Graham Excerpts

Thursday 1st March 2012 Commons Chamber

[Mr Crausby]

I accept that that is the situation on their pension fund, as long as those individuals can trust those private pension schemes to continue to pay; I have to say that during my working lifetime that has not always been a very happy experience when it comes to private pension schemes.

My principal argument is against the Government’s decision to make savings at the expense of our pensioners by using CPI rather than RPI. Of course this is not the first time a Government have behaved in this way, as the Conservatives have a track record of not treating pensioners properly. Margaret Thatcher’s decision to make a change on the link with earnings has cost pensioners across the country many thousands of pounds. The harsh truth is that the public just cannot trust the Government any more than they can trust their employers, and I find that very sad. It is not in the best interests of our country.

[Richard Graham (Gloucester) (Con)]

If the hon. Gentleman and others of his colleagues were so concerned about the decision made by the previous Conservative Government to separate pensions uplift from earnings, why did his party do nothing about it for the 13 years it was in power?

[Mr Crausby]

The previous Labour Government did decide to restore the link and were committed to doing so. The current Government have now restored the link at a time when wages are flatlining, and the reality is that the restoration has cost them not a penny. But the real issue is not the restoration of the link, but the many thousands of pounds that will have been lost by our pensioners until the day they die since Margaret Thatcher broke the link in the first place.

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[Richard Graham (Gloucester) (Con)]

I join others in congratulating the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) on securing this debate. I recognise his sincerity and the consistency of his position on pensions over some time. I am also sure that his party—perhaps his party leader in particular—will have taken careful note of his desire to form the next Government, although he must forgive me if I do not immediately flock to his standard.

I draw attention to my statements of interests. I am chairman of the all-party group on occupational pensions and a deferred pensioner of the civil service pension scheme. That means, first, that I recognise the important differences between CPI and RPI, although everyone in the House should recognise that this is a fairly nerdy subject to most of the public, and, secondly, that I would personally benefit from the hon. Gentleman’s proposal to form the next Government if the reversion to RPI is the cornerstone of his policy platform. I suspect, however, that the increased costs of his forming the next Government would greatly outweigh any selfish benefit for me.

That takes us to the nub of the issues that the hon. Gentleman raised. Why the change? What are the consequences? Is his motion the right way forward? I will first tackle the change. The difference between CPI and RPI, and the change made by the Government, reflect the growing costs, particularly of public sector pensions. I can do no better than quote from the Hutton commission’s final report, in which Lord Hutton, a distinguished former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, wrote that

“between 1999-2000 and 2009-10 the…benefits paid from the five largest”

unfunded

“pension schemes increased by 32 per cent. This increase in costs was mainly driven by an increase in the number of pensioners, a result of the expansion of the public service workforce over the last four decades, longer life expectancy and the extension of pension rights for early leavers and women.”

That places in context the increases in Government spending and in the amount of taxpayers’ money spent on these pensions because all unfunded pension schemes are currently paid for directly from taxation.

The hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington is right that over time there will be a significant difference between the two rates of indexation—the Hutton commission estimated it at approximately 15%—and that that might reduce the pension benefits paid out to people previously accustomed to RPI. It is also worth mentioning, however, why CPI is a more appropriate index for pensions, and on this issue I can do no better than quote the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown), who said in 2003:

“The long-term credibility of our symmetrical target will be enhanced—as the independent Office for National Statistics reports in its paper published today—by adoption of the internationally recognised measure of inflation, the harmonised consumer prices index. It is more reliable because, taking account of spending by all consumers, this consumer prices index gives a better measure than the old”

retail prices index, because the spending patterns take

“better account of consumers substituting cheaper for more expensive goods.”—[Official Report, 10 December 2003; Vol. 415, c. 1062-3.]

The hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington did not say anything about that at the time the statement was made or in subsequent debate, although he might have had stronger feelings on the issue when it became more apparent that this would be applied to pensions.

[John McDonnell]

We need to be clear about what the then Chancellor introduced. He confirmed the measure of CPI for macro-economic policy with regard to comparisons across Europe. At that point, the intention was not to use it for pensions increases themselves, although a number of us said that if it was translated to the uprating of pensions or benefits, we would oppose it.

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[Richard Graham]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for his intervention. He is correct, as I had just pointed out, that it was not then intended to apply to pensions, but it set the train in motion.

I want to address one technical issue. As I said earlier, I do not want the debate to descend too rapidly into every technicality on this very technical issue, but there is one issue that I have flagged up for the Minister: a relatively recent study by the Office for National Statistics on the differences between CPI and RPI. That raises the question of whether one of my assumptions about the differences is correct. I had assumed in a previous life that the major difference between the two indices was the absence of any provision for mortgage costs in CPI, but the recent ONS study puts a question mark over that and ascribes much greater impact to the difference between CPI and RPI in the formula reached. The Minister might wish to comment on that later if he has had a chance to study it, or reply at a later stage.

To return to the question, “Why the change?”, I have touched on the growing cost of public sector pensions, as laid out in the Hutton report, on the move from RPI to CPI as a better measure of inflation under the previous Government and on the recent ONS analysis of the differences between the two indices, but there is a further aspect to consider: the heavy cost of maintaining the RPI link over time. The hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington suggested that the benefits of these changes to the Government were short term, but it is worth mentioning that the Hutton commission’s conclusion was precisely the opposite. It concluded that

“gross expenditure on unfunded public service pensions will remain close to current levels as a proportion of GDP over the next decade.”

Lord Hutton anticipated—the Minister might care to update us if he has further figures—that the financial benefits of the changes being made would be seen over a much longer time period. He estimated that some £20 billion would be saved by 2060, but that is in the very long term—long after the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington has formed his Government and retired from this place, I suspect. The benefits were not intended or calculated to be short term; they were precisely the opposite.

[Grahame M. Morris]

The hon. Gentleman refers to the Hutton report and predictions about the call on the public purse, but my understanding is that, as a consequence of the negotiated settlement reached between the previous Labour Government and the public sector trade unions, the costs were projected to fall from 2% of GDP to 1.4% by 2060. Does he agree?

[Richard Graham]

To be honest, I have no insights on the talks between the previous Labour Government and the unions at the time. However, with regard to what the previous Government said they could or would do, I am reminded of the earlier comments of the hon. Member for Bolton North East (Mr Crausby) about the Labour party’s commitment to reforming or restoring the link between pensions and earnings. I have to ask him and the hon. Member for Easington (Grahame M. Morris) how long a party can have a commitment to doing something without doing it and retaining any credibility. If my wife asked me to do something and I say that I am committed to doing it but some 13 years later I had done nothing about it, it would be hard for her to believe a word I said.

The hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington rightly talked about the importance of trust in the long-term provision of pensions and of sticking to promises, but he was silent on this issue. I suspect that he agrees with me and would have preferred his party to have done something about its commitment rather than just talk about it.

[John McDonnell]

The hon. Gentleman must not have heard me. I was not silent on that issue; in an intervention I said that I supported the commitment. In fact, on an annual basis I proposed the restoration of the link with earnings. Eventually we secured a commitment from the previous Government that they would introduce the link no later than 2012. To be frank, that is what this Government have done to a certain extent. With regard to the GDP figures, the Hutton report sets out clearly the falling costs. On the point about the union negotiations, the hon. Gentleman will know, because the Secretary of State reported it, that in the last negotiations the unions accepted that any costs resulting from increasing longevity would be borne by increasing contributions, but they would not accept the shift from RPI to CPI.

[Richard Graham]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for his intervention and for confirming his position on the previous Government’s stance, which is what I had assumed it to be.

I have covered in some detail the question of why this change is being made and will now touch briefly on what the consequences will be before concluding with whether the motion is the right way forward. The hon. Gentleman referred to three consequences that cause him concern: first, pensioners will lose out; secondly, workers might leave the schemes; and thirdly, the fact that both those consequences would have a negative impact on social service expenditure.

It is of course true that those pensioners and future pensioners, such as myself, who would benefit from the retention of RPI as the index of inflation will lose out absolutely, but I do not believe that anyone involved will lose out relatively. It is important to realise that very few countries in Europe have defined benefit pension schemes at all. Most of us who will benefit as a result of being members of a public sector defined benefit scheme, such as myself, even if for only a few years, will still be much better off than most workers in the UK and Europe.

Above all, it is important to realise that the people who suffer the most in retirement are those who are not members of any pension scheme at all, those for whom the new pension scheme—the national employment savings trust—is intended to be of great use, and those who depend entirely on the basic state pension. In that context, it is relevant that the Government have done a considerable amount to help those who survive on the basic state pension partly through the triple-lock guarantee: the reversion to the link with earnings, a basic absolute increase of 2.5%, and the link to inflation. That is important and was referred to by Members who spoke earlier, including my hon. Friend the Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin) and the hon. Member for Eastbourne (Stephen Lloyd).

It is important that the change to the basic state pension envisaged by the Government will also be of great benefit to workers and to almost all women who work part time in order to bring up their children and will save considerably on the administrative costs of having two current basic state pension schemes, one of which, the means-tested one, has in my view had a discriminatory impact on those people whom the hon. Member for Bolton North East rightly referred to when he said that some of his constituents with a small amount of savings might be no better off than those with no savings at all. It is important that the Government remove that difference so that we can establish once and for all the principle that those who save will always be better off. I know that that is what the Minister is driving towards and very much hope that we will be able to achieve that goal, that we can state it with confidence and that our constituents will be able to believe it before the end of this Parliament.

I do not believe that the consequences of the changes will be as drastic as the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington claimed they would be. I reject the argument that the change is principally about contributing to the Government’s efforts to bring down the budget deficit. In fact, I do not think that it will make any difference to the budget deficit in the short term. I also reject the idea that our most vulnerable workers will suffer, because the most vulnerable workers are those who are not on defined benefit schemes and survive purely on the basic state pension. I applaud the fact that the Government have been generous to those of my constituents who are on that scheme. Instead, I believe that the long-term savings to be had from the change will hugely benefit all our constituents. First, they will reduce the amount of interest currently paid on our vast mountain of debt—£120 million a day—which is money that could much better be spent on education, health and other good causes.

Secondly, if those businesses that have defined benefit schemes are able to change the index from RPI to CPI, they will increase their chances of surviving, growing and providing jobs for our constituents, and that is important, because many smaller businesses that have been going for about 100 years in my constituency are engineering companies that do not have great, specific investment skills, and the money that they are spending to top up their defined benefit pension scheme is being spent often at the cost of growing their business, of establishing more investment in their factories and of providing more jobs for my constituents.

[Bob Stewart (Beckenham) (Con)]

Will my hon. Friend give way?

[Richard Graham]

Of course I will give way to my distinguished and gallant hon. Friend.

[Bob Stewart]

My hon. Friend is very kind. For me the most important thing that we can do for the future is to look after the people who now do not have a pension. We have a basic state pension, but we want to encourage as many people as possible to get on to a supplementary pension, and I hope very much that the Government’s scheme will do so. I am thinking of the poorest people in the country, and about them having not just a state pension, but an add-on, so that we can lift them out of poverty in retirement.

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[Richard Graham]

My hon. and gallant Friend is absolutely right, and that is precisely what the new NEST pension is designed to achieve. I am sure that he will join me later this summer, when the NEST pension arrives at the same time as the Olympics, in hoping that many of our poorest constituents will indeed benefit from that new savings scheme.

Is the motion the right way forward? I believe that it is not, because above all else the change in the pension inflation index, from RPI to CPI, which this Government have seen through, is all about benefiting future workers, who are those who will pay for the pensions of current pensioners, about benefiting our children and about benefiting our grandchildren.

Governments are often accused of being short-term and of purely looking for votes in the next election, but Governments should be looking to future generations and to what we can pass on to them. The changes made will, in the longer term, benefit our country and our constituents hugely. I understand the emotion and the beliefs behind the motion in the name of the hon. Member for Hayes and Harlington, but I will be voting for future generations, our children, our grandchildren and their interests, and that is why I will be voting against the motion.

[Guto Bebb (Aberconwy) (Con)]

rose—

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[Madam Deputy Speaker (Dawn Primarolo)]

Order. If the hon. Member for Gloucester (Richard Graham) wants to intervene, he should stand up. It is impossible to conduct a debate when comments are shouted across the Chamber and Hansard cannot properly record them. If the hon. Member for Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East (Gregg McClymont) does not mind, perhaps Mr Richard Graham will intervene.

[Richard Graham]

Thank you, Madam Deputy Speaker. I do apologise. I was following the example of the shadow Chancellor.

Will the hon. Gentleman confirm for the record that his party’s policy, therefore, is to revert to an indexed inflation link with RPI if it gains power?

[Gregg McClymont]

Alas, the hon. Gentleman must wait for the next Labour party manifesto to satisfy his curiosity.

Clearly, the issue is whether CPI is an accurate measure of inflation. The Government and the Minister are clear that it is, but some important authorities, including the Royal Statistical Society, have emphasised that CPI fails to reflect the spending patterns of pensioners and the rising costs they face, especially housing costs, which were mentioned by some of my hon. Friends. The UK Statistics Authority has indicated that it does not believe that CPI should become the primary measure of data inflation until housing costs are included.

I know from our previous discussions that the Minister will look closely at the consumer prices advisory committee proposals on adding housing costs to CPI. We await that with great interest. Heating, which was also mentioned by a number of my hon. Friends, is also important in that context. Heating costs have been rising fast, which could mean that pensioners face higher inflation on average than other groups in society, which is significant given the removal of £100 from the winter fuel allowance.

In the end, this is a political decision. The UK Statistics Authority observed last year:

“Questions about compensation, who to compensate and what for, are straightforwardly political questions, not for statisticians.”

We cannot support adopting that approach in the long term. In just five of the last 20 years has RPI been lower than CPI. As was mentioned by my hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington, the Office for Budget Responsibility November economic and fiscal outlook states that the long-run difference between RPI and CPI is likely to be 1.4% rather than the current 0.7%.