Fracking

Norman Baker Excerpts

Tuesday 25th November 2014 Westminster Hall

[Norman Baker (Lewes) (LD)]

I am pleased to be able to introduce this debate on behalf of my constituents and, indeed, those nationally who are interested in the issue. The aims of energy policy are probably uncontroversial. They are to secure security of supply, and ideally indigenous supply, in order not to be held hostage by other countries in due course; to help to meet our climate change targets; and to use the energy supply to create jobs, to help the economy and, ideally, to keep prices down. The issue is whether the Government’s policy on fracking achieves those objectives. I am not sure that it does, and I therefore suggest to the Minister that we may be backing the wrong horse or at least putting too much money on the wrong horse, as I will now show.

On the security of supply, the Chancellor of the Exchequer has said that there is “huge potential” from fracking and the Treasury has said that the potential is “too big to ignore”, but that seems to be at odds with the recent report from the UK Energy Research Centre, which received some coverage earlier this month. Professor Jim Watson, UKERC research director, said:

“It is very frustrating to keep hearing that shale gas is going to solve our energy problems—there’s no evidence for that whatsoever...it’s hype… Shale gas has been completely oversold. Where ministers got this rhetoric from I have absolutely no idea. It’s very misleading for the public.”

Professor Mike Bradshaw, his colleague at the UKERC, said:

“Only one thing is virtually certain—in Europe shale gas is not going to be a game-changer.”

There appears to be a variance between what Ministers have said and what the UKERC experts say.

Research by the British Geological Survey, which assessed the shale gas potential of the Weald basin, which the Minister will understand I am particularly interested in as it covers the South Downs national park and elements of my constituency, concluded that shale formations in the basin could contain between 2.2 billion and 8.5 billion barrels of oil, rather than gas, with a mid-case estimate of 4.4 billion, which would be equivalent to close to a decade of UK consumption. That may explain why the Chancellor and others think that fracking has huge potential. However, the BGS went on to say that the research found that many of the Weald shale samples contained more clay than the most prolific US fields.

Data from the US, where it is easy to extract oil and gas, suggest that, at best, only 5% of the oil may be extracted from shale. A university professor says that

“we might estimate that 1 per cent of the Weald oil resource might be recoverable.”

He calculated that that equated to 50 million barrels or two months of UK consumption and said:

“From a national perspective, this seems to be a rather small prize.”

There is significant doubt about whether the reserves of potentially usable shale gas and shale oil will be as extensive as the Government has maintained.

I now want to look at the potential in relation to climate change and the argument that shale gas is a bridge to the future and cleaner than coal. Again, that is in doubt. First, it is worth pointing out that, in the south-east of England, we are talking about oil rather than gas in many respects. That factor has not, perhaps, permeated through to the public at large. The BGS completed an estimate in May 2014. Although it is estimated that large quantities of shale oil are present, no significant gas resource is recognised using the current geological model because the shale is not thought to have reached the geological maturity required to generate gas. Therefore, we are talking about oil extraction rather than gas extraction as far as areas round my constituency are concerned. That is an entirely different proposition in terms of climate change.

In the “World Energy Outlook 2012”, the International Energy Agency concluded:

“No more than one-third of…reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2° C goal”.

And Mark Carney warned recently that the vast majority of fossil fuel reserves are “unburnable”.

[Duncan Hames (Chippenham) (LD)]

I congratulate my right hon. Friend on securing this important debate. He has just put his finger on it. Are not the displacement arguments meaningless in the absence of a global deal on limiting carbon emissions? Coal that is not burned in power stations here will still end up being burned elsewhere.

[Norman Baker]

My hon. Friend makes a very important point. We have to look at the global use of fossil fuels, which is the point that I am coming on to. It would be completely irresponsible for the world to use the fossil fuels that exist in total. Therefore, we have to move towards alternatives, rather than simply switching one fossil fuel for another. Some shale gas advocates have argued that it will reduce emissions, because shale gas will replace coal. That relates to the point that my hon. Friend makes. However, the Committee on Climate Change states that coal should be off the system entirely by the early 2020s. My hon. Friend will know that at our party conference this year, we committed to ensuring that that happened. The best industry estimates are that shale gas will not be online until the 2020s, by which time there should really be no coal to replace.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

On the displacement point, the right hon. Gentleman says that coal will be off the system by 2020. That may be the objective in this country; unfortunately, it is not the objectively globally. Coal use increased globally eight times more in absolute terms than renewables last year, and there is a very strong displacement argument vis-à-vis gas and coal.

[Norman Baker]

I entirely accept that the geological conditions are different in different countries. There may be a stronger argument elsewhere for shale gas, for the very reasons that the hon. Gentleman has given, but I suggest to him that in the UK context, that argument does not stack up, for the reasons that we have given. Also, this UK Government and the previous Government have given a strong lead internationally on tackling climate change. We have a very good record on that, and what we do is very important in sending a signal to other countries. We should not underestimate that.

[Caroline Lucas (Brighton, Pavilion) (Green)]

The right hon. Gentleman is making a very powerful case. Does he agree that the research from the Tyndall centre is very useful in this respect? It says that UK shale gas development is “quantitatively and unambiguously incompatible” with the UK’s commitment to working towards remaining below 2° C of warming.

[Norman Baker]

If we end up with a massive shale gas industry, which is what some parts of the Government have suggested may be the case, we are building in reliance on fossil fuels to a large degree for an indefinite period. If, however, the shale gas reserves are not realisable, as I believe they may not be, we will spend a lot of money and time on something that does not produce much at all. Either way, it does not make sense.

[Albert Owen (Ynys Môn) (Lab)]

I am following the right hon. Gentleman’s argument with interest. Does he not have to agree that most householders in the United Kingdom have gas appliances in their properties, that we will need gas for some time and that if we do not look at our natural reserves, either in the North sea or on land—even down south where he is—we will have to rely on imported gas for many years to come?

[Norman Baker]

Undoubtedly, we are largely dependent on gas. I would argue that natural gas is preferable to coal. However, I am not sure that that is the case with shale gas, for the reasons that I will come to, one of which is methane leakage. US studies have shown that up to 9% of methane can escape into the atmosphere, and over a 20-year timeline, methane can be 86 times more powerful, greenhouse gas-wise, than carbon. Therefore, there is a real danger that far from being something that aids us in reducing carbon emissions, shale gas, if not controlled properly, could be as bad as coal. The type of gas and how it is extracted are very important in ensuring that our carbon emissions or greenhouse gas emissions are as low as possible. There is growing evidence that methane emissions can be very high. I ask the Minister to address that issue and tell me what the Department of Energy and Climate Change is doing to ensure that the regulatory regime is robust enough and does not simply rely on what the industry says but uses independent analysis to establish the levels of methane leakage.

The Minister may want to comment on the drilling that has taken place at Preese Hall in Lancashire—PH1. I understand that the site is to be abandoned and grassed over because of the leakage problem at the Cuadrilla site, owing to the well casing issue. If he would like to comment on that, I would be grateful, because it seems to suggest that the regulation on well casings is not as thorough as it might be.

There is also an issue about jobs and the economy. The Minister has rightly drawn attention to the jobs that may result from fracking, but jobs would come from any energy investment, so the question is what sort of energy investment we want. Of course we want jobs to be created, but at what cost? There will be costs as a consequence of pursuing fracking.

[Graham Stringer (Blackley and Broughton) (Lab)]

I am following the right hon. Gentleman’s argument about jobs. Does he accept that as well as being an energy source, fracked gas is a feedstock for our chemical industry, which is currently vulnerable to the United States chemical industry because of the high costs of energy in this country and the lack of direct feeds into the industry?

[Norman Baker]

I agree that any energy policy needs to take into account all relevant factors. Taking all relevant factors into account, however, I would not pursue the Government’s current fracking policy. I was referring to a number of downsides that need to be addressed. The Countryside Alliance has produced a brief in the past couple of days, which states that

“the development of a shale gas industry in the UK would be very challenging for a number of reasons, which include: constraints of population density; the current regulatory environment; existing land use at proposed sites; lack of associated infrastructure…and environmental concerns.”

The Countryside Alliance goes on to say that

“there are potential threats to the countryside, including: implications for land used for development; potential threats to other land users; pressure on local infrastructure; increased demand for water resources; waste management problems; increased light, noise and emission pollution; and increased risk to the local ecosystem and communities, such as habitat fragmentation, threats to local wildlife and contamination of water systems.”

That suggests that the Countryside Alliance is not entirely happy with the Government’s fracking proposals. In the brief, the alliance recommends the introduction of buffer zones between shale developments and local communities. Perhaps the Minister can tell us the Government’s policy on that. I think that it is fair to say that the alliance is nervous about fracking, although to be fair and accurate, it has not ruled it out. The National Farmers Union, which is concerned about the implications of fracking for agriculture, is in a similar position.

Concerns have been expressed about the Infrastructure Bill, which permits

“passing any substance through, or putting any substance into, deep-level land”

and gives

“the right to leave deep-level land in a different condition from the condition it was in before an exercise of the right of use (including by leaving any infrastructure or substance in the land).”

I do not believe that the inclusion in the Infrastructure Bill of such a wide sweep of permissions constitutes a world-class regulatory regime. Perhaps the Minister would comment on that.

[Mr Mike Weir (Angus) (SNP)]

I want to go back to the point made by the hon. Member for Blackley and Broughton (Graham Stringer) about the chemical industry. He suggested that shale gas would produce cheaper energy, but does that not depend on the structure in the United States? There is no evidence that shale gas in the UK will be extracted at a cost as low as that in the United States.

[Norman Baker]

That is certainly true. The geology is different, and land use management is different in this country. We do not have the vast open spaces that exist in the US—I believe that Lord Howell referred to the “desolate” north-east, which I do not think is an appropriate description of our country—so of course the situation is entirely different. As we found with genetically modified crops, we have to have multi use of our land, rather than the mono use that is possible in vast areas of the United States. The hon. Gentleman is quite right to make that point.

Other objections have been made by, for example, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, which states that 99 protected areas, including 24 RSPB reserves, have already been licensed under previous licensing rounds. It argues that excluding a range of protected areas from shale gas exploration would rule out only 12% of the area that is up for grabs in the 14th licensing round. To give credit to the Minister and his colleagues, they have given a clear signal that they do not want fracking in national parks, and I am grateful for that, not least because that affects my constituency. If he could respond to the RSPB point about protected areas, that would be very helpful.

There is also a concern about water resources. The point has been made, quite rightly, that 27% of catchments in England and Wales only have enough water for additional abstraction 30% of the time. My water company tells me that there is less water per head of population in my constituency than in Sudan. The idea of vast amounts of water use for fracking concerns me.

[Robert Jenrick (Newark) (Con)]

On the question of the RSPB, is the right hon. Gentleman aware that fracking—not shale fracking, but fracking for oil and gas—has been going on since 1963 in Nottinghamshire, just over the border from my constituency, and in the Beckingham Marshes, which is an RSPB-protected area? The RSPB has never raised a single complaint against activity there.

[Norman Baker]

I have to confess that I am not aware of that particular issue. The RSPB does not include that in its brief, but that is, no doubt, a relevant point, which the hon. Gentleman has put on the record.

[Albert Owen]

The right hon. Gentleman mentioned his concern about drilling per se, and about deep drilling in particular. Of course, geothermal is just that; it involves drilling deep into rock. Are he and his party against that, or is the debate only about shale gas? It is rather confusing simply to have “Fracking” as the title of the debate.

[Norman Baker]

To be clear, I am not speaking on behalf of my party; I am speaking on behalf of my constituents. I am not against exploring for geothermal, but I think that the same concerns apply, and they need to be properly considered and factored in. I would not want environmental standards to be compromised by anything that takes place in energy production, and geothermal would have to meet stringent standards.

The Chair of the Select Committee on Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the hon. Member for Thirsk and Malton (Miss McIntosh), has said that there are too many unknowns when it comes to potential damage to the environment. The National Trust has said:

“There are very real dangers for the environment in going all out for fracking…Our position on fracking is clear—if fracking were proposed today on our land we would say no.”

There are, allegedly, potential health implications. I am not an expert on health matters, and therefore I simply wish to report what has been said and leave it to others to judge whether they are convinced. It is, however, right to put on record the fact that concerns have been expressed. The Lancet, no less, which is rigorous in ensuring that anything in its publication is of a high standard, recently published an article by Michael Hill, an expert adviser to the European Commission on the best available techniques for the management of waste rock, in which he stated:

“Although the UK Government has indeed stated that it accepts the Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering Working Group’s recommendations on shale gas extraction, the reality is that only one of these recommendations has been implemented in full; one out of ten in 2 years.”

Will the Minister confirm whether that is the case and, if it is, when the other recommendations will be implemented? Mr Hill stated:

“Other recommendations have been ignored or the opposite has been put in place.”

He went on, rather worryingly, to say:

“Recent studies from the USA have suggested an increased risk of adverse health events (such as congenital heart defects and low Apgar scores) in individuals living close to natural gas development (within a radius of 10 miles). These preliminary findings need to be replicated and explored further in large prospective studies; it may be irresponsible to consider any further fracking in the UK (exploratory or otherwise) until these prospective studies have been completed and the health impacts of fracking have been determined.”

I make no comment, and I have no view, on whether fracking causes serious health issues. However, it seems to me that that question needs to be addressed, and it would be helpful if the Minister would say something about the matter.

I draw attention to an article in The Independent on 30 October, which states that, according to scientists:

“Dangerously high levels of cancer-causing chemicals have been discovered in the air around ‘fracking’ sites in the United States…Levels of benzene, formaldehyde and hydrogen sulphide were many times above the US’s air pollution limits and were detected within residential areas near to fracking wells drilled across five different states, the researchers said. Some levels of benzene—a known carcinogen—were more than 30 times the concentrations that would be found in the air at a petrol station when filling a car with fuel, they said.”

That is a US study, and everything depends on the regulatory regime. If the Minister can convince hon. Members that regulation in this country is much tighter than it is in the US, he may allay those concerns. However, given the remarks that have been made about the Infrastructure Bill, we remain to be convinced that the regulation is as strict as the Minister may claim.

[David Morris (Morecambe and Lunesdale) (Con)]

Does my right hon. Friend agree that, even though fracking is relatively new in this country, the House has had a debate that shows that we will have the world’s safest regulation on fracking? The experience in America happened over a period of decades when regulation was not as tight.

[Norman Baker]

I agree that regulation in the US has not been particularly tight, as far as I can tell. I agree that Ministers have committed themselves to a strict regulatory regime, which is good. I question whether the rhetoric bears truth to the reality, because the Infrastructure Bill does not seem to reflect the high level of regulation that I would like to see.

[David Mowat]

I am listening carefully to what the right hon. Gentleman says. For the avoidance of doubt, will he tell the Chamber whether it is his position that fracking has caused cancer in the United States?

[Norman Baker]

No, I did not say that. I was very careful to say that I was reporting something from The Lancet and referring to an article from The Independent. I expressly said that I do not have a view on whether what is claimed in the articles is the case, but those matters should be taken into account, and they need to be addressed in order to reassure the public. That is what I said, and I repeat it now.

[Lilian Greenwood (Nottingham South) (Lab)]

The right hon. Gentleman has made a number of interesting points. Does his contribution, and the debate so far, simply reflect the high level of public scepticism and concern about fracking, whether we are talking about the health implications or environmental concerns, many of which are clearly genuine and legitimate? To ensure public support, the Government should introduce robust regulation and monitoring before they proceed with the measure.

[Norman Baker]

I agree with that entirely helpful contribution. On 12 August, The Daily Telegraph, which is of course a paper that we can always believe, reported:

“Support for fracking in the UK has fallen, with less than a quarter of the public now in favour of extracting shale gas to meet the country’s energy needs, according to…government polling.”

So support for fracking among the public at large appears to be lessening. At the very least, the Government has a job to convince the public that fracking is the right option. There is also nervousness among MPs, including among Conservative MPs, with seats where fracking may occur. I refer to my parliamentary neighbour, the right hon. Member for Arundel and South Downs (Nick Herbert), who is dealing with the proposals for the West Sussex village of Wisborough Green. He warned:

“Rural West Sussex cannot become a carelessly industrialised landscape.”

There is genuine concern that the countryside may end up being pockmarked as a consequence of fracking.

I referred earlier to Lord Howell, the Chancellor’s father-in-law, who said that fracking should be confined to “desolate” parts of north-east England. He also said, and I think he may be right about this:

“Every time ministers open their mouths to claim that fracking must start everywhere around Britain, and not just in carefully selected and remote…areas, they lose thousands of Tory votes.”

Will the Minister confirm the policy on the geographical spread of fracking?

In this House we are all concerned about energy bills and the cost of living. The Chancellor has said that there is

“a real chance to get cheaper energy for Britain.”

The Prime Minister himself has said that fracking has “real potential” to drive down energy bills, but Lord Browne, the chairman of the UK’s leading shale gas company, Cuadrilla, has said that fracking will not reduce gas prices. Will the Minister say what evidence there is that gas prices will come down as a consequence of fracking? The companies do not appear to think that gas prices will come down.

There is then the question of what else we might do if we do not have fracking, or if we have less fracking than the Government would like. An alternative energy strategy is available that would provide security, aid efforts to reduce climate change and produce jobs: further investment in renewables. I ask the Minister to back that horse. I hope that the climate change argument speaks for itself, but with regard to the security of energy supplies, renewables are all ours. There is an indigenous supply of renewables, which is endless by nature. We have immense potential for wind, solar, hydro, wave and tidal power in this country.

The Foreign Secretary recently said:

“Renewable energy sources will be critical to reducing our vulnerability to energy supply shocks”.

Those are wise words, and I am delighted that since 2010 the coalition Government has secured the investment of £29 billion in renewable energy sources, which is more than double the amount secured by the last Labour Government. Electricity from renewables has more than doubled since 2010, and we are now seeing the price of solar cut by two thirds. The Government is doing a great number of good things for renewable energy, and I argue that the potential to do even more is not quite limitless, and not quite renewable, but there is certainly potential to do a great deal more than we have so far achieved.

Investing in green energy creates green jobs, and I am delighted that the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change has given the go-ahead for a wind farm off the Sussex coast that will create some 100 jobs at Newhaven in my constituency. Those who rubbish renewables, particularly our UK Independence party friends, are busy destroying British jobs through their approach to such matters. We must ensure that the mood music coming from Parliament and the Government supports renewable energy and does not bring into question the Government’s future commitment.

[Albert Owen]

As someone who is pro-nuclear and pro-renewable, I see no contradiction in their both contributing to a low-carbon energy policy. Is the right hon. Gentleman saying that he is against nuclear? Although he is not speaking on behalf of his party, we have seen a few U-turns from the Liberal Democrats on that issue.

[Norman Baker]

I have not mentioned nuclear in this debate, as far as I am aware.

[Albert Owen]

You did.

[Norman Baker]

If the hon. Gentleman is asking my opinion on nuclear, I will tell him that I am highly sceptical about the economics of nuclear power, but that is a separate debate.

I will conclude my speech to give plenty of time for other hon. Members to contribute. I advise the Minister to stop backing the wrong horse and back renewables. Shale has been “overhyped”—the word used by the UK Energy Research Centre. Shale could be damaging, rather than helpful, to our country. Energy security, climate change and jobs are helped by investing more money in renewables, instead of the concentration we have seen on fracking.

[Several hon. Members]

rose—