Fracking

David Mowat Excerpts

Tuesday 25th November 2014 Westminster Hall

[Norman Baker]

My hon. Friend makes a very important point. We have to look at the global use of fossil fuels, which is the point that I am coming on to. It would be completely irresponsible for the world to use the fossil fuels that exist in total. Therefore, we have to move towards alternatives, rather than simply switching one fossil fuel for another. Some shale gas advocates have argued that it will reduce emissions, because shale gas will replace coal. That relates to the point that my hon. Friend makes. However, the Committee on Climate Change states that coal should be off the system entirely by the early 2020s. My hon. Friend will know that at our party conference this year, we committed to ensuring that that happened. The best industry estimates are that shale gas will not be online until the 2020s, by which time there should really be no coal to replace.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

On the displacement point, the right hon. Gentleman says that coal will be off the system by 2020. That may be the objective in this country; unfortunately, it is not the objectively globally. Coal use increased globally eight times more in absolute terms than renewables last year, and there is a very strong displacement argument vis-à-vis gas and coal.

[Norman Baker]

I entirely accept that the geological conditions are different in different countries. There may be a stronger argument elsewhere for shale gas, for the very reasons that the hon. Gentleman has given, but I suggest to him that in the UK context, that argument does not stack up, for the reasons that we have given. Also, this UK Government and the previous Government have given a strong lead internationally on tackling climate change. We have a very good record on that, and what we do is very important in sending a signal to other countries. We should not underestimate that.

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[Norman Baker]

I agree that regulation in the US has not been particularly tight, as far as I can tell. I agree that Ministers have committed themselves to a strict regulatory regime, which is good. I question whether the rhetoric bears truth to the reality, because the Infrastructure Bill does not seem to reflect the high level of regulation that I would like to see.

[David Mowat]

I am listening carefully to what the right hon. Gentleman says. For the avoidance of doubt, will he tell the Chamber whether it is his position that fracking has caused cancer in the United States?

[Norman Baker]

No, I did not say that. I was very careful to say that I was reporting something from The Lancet and referring to an article from The Independent. I expressly said that I do not have a view on whether what is claimed in the articles is the case, but those matters should be taken into account, and they need to be addressed in order to reassure the public. That is what I said, and I repeat it now.

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[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to speak in the debate and I congratulate the right hon. Member for Lewes (Norman Baker) on securing it. I agreed with the first part of his speech, when he said that energy policy has three components—low cost, security of supply and decarbonisation—but we perhaps parted company afterwards.

There is no contradiction in supporting renewables and supporting fracking. In this country, renewables represent one tenth of the energy we get from coal and oil. I would like renewables to grow faster, but part of reducing carbon—I will say more about this later in my remarks—is the displacement of coal, which is very polluting, by gas. In the United States of America, there has been a massive reduction in carbon due to the shale revolution.

People have said that we should not bet the whole farm, or the whole world, on shale, and I agree. Nobody is saying that shale is a panacea to fix everything. However, we should evaluate the potential of shale in a safe, constructive and thoughtful manner. That is all I am saying.

People sometimes ask, “Should we frack or not frack? Should the world go down this route?” The world has already started down that route, and it is worth pausing to consider what has happened in the USA during the past 10 years. Yes, part of the picture is that gas prices have fallen from $10—roughly speaking, that is still the price in the UK—to something like $3 or $4, or by a factor of about a third. The consequence of that is lower domestic prices, less fuel poverty and a much revitalised manufacturing industry, as well as lower costs of feedstock for use in the petrochemicals industry, which has seen a renaissance in the USA.

We may not want a part in any of that—in Lewes, it may not matter, but it matters on Teesside, where marginal chemicals investment decisions are being made on whether to put the next production unit or piece of kit on the eastern seaboard of the USA or in our country. It also matters in what I have heard described as the “desolate north-west”, where a large number of jobs depend on energy-intensive industry. About 900,000 people in our country work for industries that rely on relatively cheap energy. For us to say that that does not matter, or that we should ignore it, strikes me as arrogant, wrong and disappointing.

I have heard it said, including today, that fracking will not reduce the price of gas in Europe. That argument is a reasonable one. We have a European gas system and get most of our gas from Europe—in fact, from Russia—and not than from the UK, although we are getting some from the UK. It is true that fracking will not automatically reduce cost but, generally, when there is more of something, the price comes down.

[Julian Sturdy (York Outer) (Con)]

My hon. Friend was probably coming on to the point I want to make. Is it not the case that oil prices are currently falling as a result of the worry in the middle east about competition from the US in the form of shale gas?

[David Mowat]

My next sentence would have been that oil prices have fallen by about a third in the past three or four months, because the USA, which was a large global market for oil, is no longer importing oil. The result is huge in terms of geopolitics and the position of countries such as Saudi Arabia. Of course, that cost reduction would happen with gas, too.

It is not only the cost of the material that matters, but the economic activity that comes with exploiting it. Such activity is not a displacement of renewables. Aberdeen and the areas around it have the four parliamentary constituencies with the lowest unemployment rates in the UK—the rates are lower even than those in the south-east of England and London. That record has been built on the back of the North sea oil industry, and some of that activity will happen if shale reaches its true potential.

People have said that that potential may not be there. I believe I heard the right hon. Member for Lewes say that the reserves may not all be recoverable. That is true. The assumption is that 10% of the technically available reserves will be recoverable. If so, that means 50 years of supply in the UK. It may not be that 10% is recoverable—it may be 1%—but let us find out, because a load of MPs in a room talking about it will not allow us to understand whether the true figure is 1%, 10% or 15%.

I mentioned our energy security and gas imports. They mostly come from Norway, but increasingly come from Qatar. The first contract between Centrica and Gazprom has been signed, starting now, so gas is also starting to come from Russia. The gas situation has changed in the past 15 years. Previously, we were a gas exporter, but no longer.

It is also true that we have security of supply problems in terms of keeping the lights on in this country. During the past decade or two, we have failed to replace power stations. We are turning off our coal-powered stations—we are the only country in Europe doing that at scale. The consequence is that the capacity margin here for next year is thought to be 2%. We are not building any kind of power stations. That needs to change. The Minister might well talk about that in his remarks.

Any student of the subject who does not believe that nuclear power globally is part of the decarbonisation solution does not have a thoughtful response to offer. Last year and the year before, 87% of the world’s energy came from fossil fuels. Of that, by far the majority came from coal and oil. If we could replace that coal and oil with gas—that is a big aspiration and it will not be done overnight—it would be equivalent in decarbonisation to the world increasing by nine times existing global renewables.

[Duncan Hames]

Does the hon. Gentleman accept that coal will not be displaced by gas if coal is burned elsewhere—those carbon emissions still enter the atmosphere?

[Mr James Gray (in the Chair)]

Order. With an eye on the clock, I call David Mowat to respond.

[David Mowat]

I will wrap up fairly quickly, Mr Gray. I clearly accept what the hon. Gentleman says—we have seen that happen in respect of the United States. That coal came to Europe because Europe failed to put in place an emissions trading system—it was principally scuppered by the Germans. As a consequence, it was cheap coal to burn. We have seen an upsurge in coal in Europe and more widely in the world, which is a big problem for those who take an interest in climate change. To pretend that emissions trading is not part of the solution is wrong.

To conclude, none of what I have said is an argument for being cavalier with local issues, whether they relate to transport or local planning. The local planning rules that apply to wind farms must also apply to fracking. There is fracking in my constituency. It is behind some large leylandii and, as I understand it, is causing objections from no one, but the situation in other places is more sensitive. I am not advocating fracking in the wrong place. I advocate proceeding in a responsible way to evaluate the potential of the technology and using it if it works.

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[Graham Stringer (Blackley and Broughton) (Lab)]

I will be brief, Mr Gray, because the hon. Member for Warrington South (David Mowat) said most of what I wanted to say.

I agree with the hon. Member for Lancaster and Fleetwood (Eric Ollerenshaw) that it is vital that local communities, however defined, benefit from fracking. It would have been easier to guarantee that benefit under the old rates system, but that no longer exists, so something else needs to be put in place from which the Treasury cannot pinch money.

The hon. Member for Warrington South put well the real debate here, which is about a cautious approach to fracking, but one that recognises that the gas under our feet could represent a huge bonanza for our industry. It might not be, but nobody knows, which is why experiments to find out what is there and whether it is retrievable in a way that is not hazardous to local communities are important. That is the real debate, but it needs to be distinguished from the unreal debate, which comes from those who pretend that the debate is about health and safety, the environment and protection when they are actually, as the hon. Member for Brighton, Pavilion (Caroline Lucas) said, completely and totally opposed to fracking on what I consider to be bogus grounds.

The hon. Lady uses as a basis for opposing fracking the fact that we will not meet our emissions targets. So what? We are hitting our emissions targets—[Interruption.] Well, I will explain it to the hon. Lady, because she is in a fantasy world. In hitting our emissions targets, we are responsible for more carbon dioxide going into the atmosphere than we were before, because of embedded carbon coming in through industrial manufactured goods from China and elsewhere. The hon. Lady’s policy does not help the climate or reduce carbon dioxide. Her policy is about deindustrialisation, which is responsible for increasing the costs of industrial goods in this country by 9%, putting people out of work, and for increasing the cost of domestic energy, depending on how it is counted—by and large, it is not counted properly—by between £50 and £120 a year. The hon. Lady is concerned about carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere, but that is increasing because we are effectively subsidising imports from China and India.

[David Mowat]

The point about embedded carbon is not mentioned enough in such discussions, so it is worth noting that, this year, emissions per head in China exceeded those of the UK, which is an interesting statistic.

[Mr James Gray (in the Chair)]

In the context of fracking in the United Kingdom.

[David Mowat]

Yes, in that context.

[Graham Stringer]

It is very interesting in the context of fracking, Mr Gray.

We need to consider whether we can benefit from shale gas in a sensible and rational way. As hon. Members have said, prices will not necessarily decrease, owing to how the European market works. We will put our gas into that market and it will become diluted and the price will not shift much. However, we should see a benefit from taxation, and we certainly should see a benefit from the congeners of methane within shale gas that will be used by firms such as INEOS as a feedstock. Otherwise, we must be told how our chemical industry can compete with not only the Chinese and their strange accounting system, but the Americans, who have reduced the costs of energy and have cheap sources of feedstocks for their chemicals industry. There will be no such industry in this country if we do not do something about that.

My final point is about renewables. I am strongly in favour of moving into renewables, which can provide security of supply, but we are doing it at the wrong time, which is counter-productive. We need to put huge amounts of money into research, primarily into how to store electricity, because the renewables we have at the moment are not helping our economy. They are damaging our economy. I am not against renewables, but I am in favour of putting a great deal of money into research into better renewables, rather than into the renewables that we currently have.