Wales: National Assembly Elections

Lord Foulkes of Cumnock Excerpts

Monday 18th June 2012 Grand Committee

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Is it not possible that this Parliament could be dissolved in some other way before that date? That could happen if, for example, the coalition was to split and the Prime Minister no longer felt that he had the confidence of the House of Commons. The general election might then take place on a date other than that which the noble and learned Lord has specified.

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

That is a theoretical possibility, and the provisions for triggering an election are set out in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Indeed, I can recall the noble Lord and other noble Lords present today debating those provisions at some considerable length. So it is possible, but the primary position under the Act is that the next election will take place on 7 May 2015.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords—

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

Perhaps I may make a little further progress before I take the intervention.

As I have said, that date would coincide with elections to the National Assembly for Wales. The Welsh Government raised concerns that a parliamentary poll on the same day could overshadow an Assembly election and, following a vote in the Assembly, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act itself deferred the date of the next Assembly elections by one year, to 2016.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

The Minister is obviously right if that is what happens, but is it wise to move ahead with other legislation on the basis of something that may not actually happen? It may be the most likely event, but it is not necessarily an absolute certainty. Is it wise to change legislation on the basis of something that may not be final?

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

The essence of a consultation is for considerations of that kind to be imported into the consultation, but the position is that if the law remains unchanged, and if it is the case that the next general election is held on 7 May 2015, under the five-year fixed-term provisions, five years hence from that date would be the first Thursday in May 2020. If the law with regard to the National Assembly for Wales has not changed, then by reverting back to a four-year term, the Welsh Assembly will also take place on the same day in May 2020. That is why we are examining the question of whether the Assembly should move on a more permanent basis to a five-year term. However, that is to accept that at any time either in this Parliament, the next Parliament or the one after that, there could be a situation where the Parliament does not run for its full five-year term. No doubt future Parliaments would have to address the consequences of that. It is also worth pointing out that if we had not had an Act for fixed-term Parliaments and this Parliament, as previous Parliaments have done, ran to its full term, the dates for the two elections in May 2015 would coincide without any prior provision having been made for that.

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[Baroness Randerson]

That sets an interesting train of thought. As the legislation currently stands, we would move to 30:30 under the current Government of Wales Act. Would consent be needed to adhere to the current legislation? I do not think that would necessarily be the case. The concept of Assembly consent—which has never come up before in this context, so far as I can recall—is desirable and I would hope it would happen, but it does not necessarily follow that it has to be because of the status of the current legislation.

I want to deal with the other issues of significance in this paper. A really important issue is the end of the ban on dual candidacy. In 1999 and 2003, I was a candidate for the list and for constituency seats, along with members of all other parties—including the Labour Party. Dual candidacy ensured vibrant energetic campaigns in individual constituencies. Candidates who knew that they were not likely to win a constituency would nevertheless fight hard in an individual constituency because it contributed to the list campaign. The loss of dual candidacy reduced the level of campaigning, particularly as regards the list vote. As a result, we had a loss of democracy in Wales.

The ban came out of the ether, as far as I could see. It seemed to be a purely political measure introduced in 2006 by the Labour Party, and it clearly penalised smaller parties. Think about the mathematics. A party has to have 40 constituency candidates; and now, under the current system, with a ban on dual candidacy, it probably has to have another 25, with five candidates for each of the five regions. Under the old system, if you stood as a candidate in both a constituency and for the list, you could, as a party probably get away with a slate of 40 candidates. Now you have to have effectively 65. That makes the situation difficult for small parties, and the system was designed to do that.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Surely, if a party cannot manage to get even 65 candidates to stand, it does not deserve to get elected Members? Small parties surely deserve small representation.

[Baroness Randerson]

I do not agree with the noble Lord at all. In a vigorous democracy, parties have to start to develop and form.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

And recruit.

[Baroness Randerson]

You should not put hurdles in their way. I believe in a developing democracy. I should like there to be a world where the Liberal Democrats were in a majority Government and ran everything. Would it not be wonderful? However, I accept that that is not going to happen on a regular basis in a democracy; and a vigorous democracy should not put hurdles in the way of the development of smaller political parties. One of the joys of devolution has been that new forms of politics have been developing. They may be transitory, but the important thing is that we have more variety in our politics.

It is worth noting—and that intervention was useful—that there has been no such ban on dual candidacy in, for example, Scotland or the London Assembly.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

I am sorry to intervene. Does the noble Baroness not know that I have tried twice to get such a ban, whereby Scotland comes into line with Wales? I tried it under a Labour Government, and the noble Lord, Lord Evans—astonishingly—argued for it in Wales and against it in Scotland. I then raised the issue under the coalition Government. I cannot remember but I think it was the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, who argued a different case for different countries. I understand the case for consistency, and the noble Baroness is arguing for it, but the inconsistency that we have experienced has been very strange and has been supported by successive Governments.

[Baroness Randerson]

I think that good sense clearly held sway in Scotland. I am pleased that the noble Lord is consistent, but it was a matter of great good sense that the ban on dual candidacy was not adopted in Scotland.

The noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, referred to the anomalous results that came as a result of the ban on dual candidacy. Like the noble Baroness, I am not always sympathetic to the Conservative Party and its electoral fortunes. In that situation, the party in Wales went from having a 15% share of the vote to having a 23% share—from nine to 14 Assembly Members. That is a record of success. From one constituency seat to six is also clearly a record of success. As a result, the leader of the Conservative Party, which was so successful, lost his seat. Clearly that will not improve the reputation for fairness of the electoral system in Wales.

The reason given by the Labour Government for the ban on dual candidacy was public dissatisfaction. However, the consultation did not reveal public dissatisfaction on any scale. The Arbuthnott commission in Scotland found that there was no such problem and the Electoral Commission in Wales also endorsed the view that dual candidacy was not a problem.

Finally, I will deal with the remaining issues. We support a move to a five-year term, to avoid a clash with general elections. Inevitably, if we held both elections at once, the Welsh political dialogue would be drowned out by the general election. Welsh politics would be overwhelmed by UK politics. That would not be fair and reasonable. I ask the Minister whether there are plans to move local elections in Wales in a similar way. Is there a move towards a five-year term in local government there?

On ending the dual mandate, it is certainly true that being an MP and an Assembly Member are both full-time jobs. Over the years, I have observed many people in the Assembly who held the two jobs. Some of them chose to spend all their time in the Assembly. I note that the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, who did that in the first term of the Assembly, is here today. However, some decided to abandon the Assembly and spend all their time in Westminster. Westminster coped with five MPs spending their time in the Assembly, but the Assembly, which is a slim body of 60 people, could not cope easily with the dual mandate for an MP and an Assembly Member—it could not cope with being abandoned. One person disappearing from the Assembly sometimes makes a difference to whether the Government win a vote. I recall cases when that was true. Therefore, it is important that there should be an end to that. In relation to the House of Lords, it is not an issue at the moment while we have the luxury of the pick-and-mix approach to when we attend the House. However, once we have an elected House, such a ban should extend to its Members.

[Lord Wigley]

My Lords, I suppose that I, too, should declare an interest—although it is substantially smaller than that declared by the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson. I am a little worried that I agreed with most of what she said; it may give me cause for some concern later.

I welcome this debate as it focuses on an issue that needs attention in relation to the National Assembly’s electoral arrangements. However, I believe that these arrangements should be matters for our own National Assembly to decide, not for the two Chambers in Westminster. In this regard, I concur with the sentiments of Wales’s First Minister, Mr Carwyn Jones—something that I do not always do—in today’s Daily Post when he said:

“The electoral system for the assembly is a matter for the people of Wales and no one else”.

As noble Lords will understand, I wholeheartedly agree with him on this occasion.

I am glad that my colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Elis-Thomas, is here—for the first time we have been able to spend some time in Grand Committee together. He speaks with the authority of a long-serving, three-term Presiding Officer of the Assembly, who is widely recognised across party divisions as having done an excellent job. No doubt he will be speaking from the context of his experience as Presiding Officer.

I want to outline the position of my party, Plaid Cymru, on these matters. The power to determine the electoral arrangements should indeed be transferred to the National Assembly. I will address the four subjects broached in this Green Paper; first, the voting system. Plaid Cymru supports the STV system mentioned by the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, a moment ago. It is used in the Northern Ireland Assembly and I believe I am right—the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, can correct me—that it is used in Scottish local government as well.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Yes.

[Lord Wigley]

Yes, indeed. I do not see any reason why it could not be introduced for the National Assembly for Wales. It avoids having two classes of Member, as is inherent in the present system, which was recognised by the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson. The panel chaired by Sir Roger Jones that looked at certain aspects of the Assembly’s work also noted that there were two different jobs being undertaken. The STV system ensures a direct link between the AM and the voters. Incidentally, alongside increasing the Assembly numbers from 60 to 80, STV was a recommendation of the commission led by the noble Lord, Lord Richard, which reported on these matters in 2004. In fact, the amount of legislative work that has come to the Assembly is greater than that anticipated when he made that recommendation.

This Green Paper is very narrow and restrictive. It neither offers STV nor the status quo as options, and I wonder why not. Both options in the Green Paper involve redrawing constituency boundaries. The STV option does not add to the administrative workload at all. Maintaining the 40:20 split between the constituency and regional list AMs implies regular boundary reviews—costing about £1.7 million a time—to equalise constituency sizes. Adopting the 30:30 split involves no greater expenditure as it uses the Westminster constituencies. However, I emphasise that Plaid Cymru has consistently criticised dogmatic equalisation of voter numbers because of the importance of geographic and historic community links, and because it would be very much harder for an AM or an MP to serve some scattered rural constituencies than it would be in an inner-city area because of the scale and mileage involved.

Some people have suggested having 30 constituencies coterminous with Westminster but possibly electing two AMs each. Other colleagues may address this later, but unless the Assembly size is increased to 90 Members, the proportionality explicit in the 1997 referendum and implicit in last year’s referendum would be broken. However, such a change could deal with the gender balance issue as it would provide adequate capacity to deal with the Assembly’s legislative scrutiny role, which is increasingly becoming evident.

An Assembly of 90 Members would still be smaller than the Northern Ireland Assembly of 108 Members or the Scottish Parliament of 129 Members. I repeat that this is not Plaid’s preferred option as we regard the STV system based on 80 AMs as the best way forward. Plaid Cymru will not agree to any change that reduces the proportionality of the Assembly. For change to happen, there should be consensus, and I do not believe that there is consensus in Wales for either eliminating or reducing the proportionality of the Assembly.

On the five-year term, which seems to be the accepted norm at Westminster, we would likewise accept it for the Assembly but ensure that elections for the House of Commons and the Assembly did not coincide. It is not a matter just of the administrative arrangements, which could be complex enough with different constituency boundaries, but a matter of which candidates are speaking on which manifesto. It would become infinitely more complex.

If the present electoral system remains, the ban on candidates standing both for constituencies and for the list should be lifted. A ban is not imposed on Scotland. I heard the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, talk about this previously in another context in the Chamber. There is no consensus in Wales for the current system. A similar system is operated, I understand, only in the Ukraine—which is not a particularly good precedent. The ban was introduced for glaring party-political advantage by the Labour Government at Westminster and, frankly, it should be scrapped. However, if the STV were to be adopted, there would be no need to get into those problems.

On the dual mandate, I express my personal view. The noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, referred to my experience in the early years of the National Assembly. My noble friend Lord Elis-Thomas may have a different view on this matter—I am not sure. I served for two years, from 1999 to 2001, as both an AM and an MP. Frankly, it was a total nonsense to try to do so, and it was impossible to do both jobs effectively. In the early months, I found myself bouncing back and forth like a yo-yo between Cardiff, Westminster and my Caernarvon constituency—a formidable triangle. That undoubtedly contributed, along with other factors, to the emergency heart operation that I underwent at that time. Furthermore, a real complication arises if the constituency boundaries differ for the two seats—if one is representing a Westminster seat, with one set of boundaries, and a National Assembly seat, with another set.

Candidates may stand on different manifestos for the two legislatures, again causing confusion. The Assembly seat should be made vacant at the point at which an AM takes the Oath as an MP. Taking the Oath should be the determinant, not the rules that are currently applied for other purposes in the National Assembly and of which the Liberal Democrats fell foul in the last election.

I conclude as I began, by reasserting that the Assembly’s electoral system should be a matter for the people of Wales to determine.

[Lord Elystan-Morgan]

My Lords, perhaps I may say two fairly generous things to start with. The first is how much I welcome the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan of Ely, whom I congratulate on her Front-Bench status. This is the first time that I have had the opportunity of listening to her, and it is clear that she speaks with great authority and immense lucidity. The other not ungenerous thing that I should like to say is that I am delighted that the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace of Tankerness, is leading for the Opposition.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

He’s the Government!

[Lord Elystan-Morgan]

The coalition Government. Old habits die hard. I remember when I was a student, a very long time ago, reading something to the effect that the surname Wallace derives from “Wallish”. Wallish, in Scots Gaelic, meant “Welsh”—so it may well be that some millennium and a half ago we had common ancestors.

Having spoken, I hope not ungenerously, on those two matters, perhaps I may say that the Green Paper has come about because of a massive blunder by Her Majesty’s Government 18 months ago. I refer to the fact that a decision was made without any empirical evidence or research to the effect that the number of Members in the House of Commons should be reduced from 650 to 600—a perfectly arbitrary judgment. It may very well be that there were elements of self-interest in that decision, but I am prepared to accept that that was probably not the case.

It was a slavish pandering to vulgar populism. It you were to put this to an audience in the front bar of most public houses in the United Kingdom, many people would say, “Yes, certainly. Do away with half the so and sos”. It was that motivation that brought about one of the most massive errors of judgment in relation to parliamentary democracy of the past 100 years. The effect was that ancient constituencies—representing very old communities that had been hammered out on the anvil of time—disappeared. Natural boundaries—rivers, mountains, bridges, old county boundaries—melted away. All this was done, according to the Government, to bring greater fairness, greater cohesion and greater certitude. I do not believe that one could have been more destructive of those elements if one had really tried.

Tacitus speaks of generals who laid waste huge areas of land, saying that where they create a desert they call it peace. Here, the Government create chaos and they call it electoral reform. That is what has brought this Green Paper into existence and the necessity of making judgments in relation to these matters.

The Government speak as if they are now stepping in nobly to deal with some sort of crisis created by some utterly external and independent agency—something that has come about without any responsibility on the part of the Government. I remember a report of a case in the assizes about 100 years ago. A person had been found guilty of murdering his mother and father. The allocutor asked him, “Have you anything to say on why judgment according to law should not be passed upon you?”. He said, “My Lord, I throw myself on the mercy of the court. I am an orphan now”. The crisis is entirely of the Government’s own making.

I do not apologise for my short preamble, but I now turn to the Green Paper. I will confine myself to whether there should be 30 or 40 constituencies for the purposes of election to the Welsh Assembly. I agree with my noble friend Lord Wigley and others that there is an overwhelming case for concentrating on 30. It comes about for all the wrong reasons, but I believe it is a fait accompli that one should accept. All the alternatives would be infinitely worse. There would be a lack of cohesion, nightmarish conflicts, unnecessary cost and hassle. One should build on the 30 in any event, but one should go much further than that. The real issue today is not the number of constituencies or any of the other questions raised by the Green Paper; it is the question that is dismissed in one sentence in paragraph 1.1, where the Government state that the number of Members of the Welsh Assembly should remain at 60. That is a massive and utterly existential question.

I believe in my very bones that 60 was a ludicrously small number to begin with and made it impossible for the Assembly to have any real future or viability and promise. That was the situation when the Assembly was created and it is now infinitely more acute since the referendum in March of last year. What we have now, whether or not we call it an Assembly, is a Parliament—a legislature with responsibility for substantial areas of primary legislation. If that Assembly is to be shackled and emasculated to the degree of having only 60 Members, we will deny it the real prospect of life and growth. It does not give me any pleasure to make that point because people in many parties have been saying all along, “For goodness’ sake, don’t talk about adding to the number of Members in the Assembly”. It is about the most unpopular subject that you could raise. To some extent all of us, including Assembly Members, are guilty of that mentality, but leadership must be conducted in an honest and statesmanlike way.

I do not know exactly how many of the 60 will be left to deal with scrutiny, something which has come about in the Assembly for the first time so far as primary legislation is concerned. Unless the Assembly can scrutinise in a detailed, honest and comprehensive way, it might as well not be there. This House and the other place have exercised that privilege and responsibility for centuries, and they earned it the hard way. But at all times they have had an adequate number of people to allow them to do it. By my rough calculation, having taken into account the Ministers, Deputy Ministers, Chairmen of Committees and one or two other functionaries who would be exempt from the exercise of scrutiny, only around 30 Members would be left. Indeed, from what I have heard from the noble Lord, Lord Elis-Thomas, who I think will deal with the exact numbers, that is a gross underestimate. What noble Lords hear from me is advocacy, but what they will hear from him is testimony.

The situation is this. If we want the Assembly to be a real legislature, it has to move away from the shackle of 60 Members. The Richard commission said eight years ago, before the referendum last year, that 60 Members were too few. Noble Lords will remember that the noble Lord, Lord Richard, recommended 80. In my view, 90 would be a perfectly reasonable and adequate figure, and of course it has the blessing of being able to be divided by three. I suggest that 60 should be elected by first past the post, but I would not go to the stake if it were the other way around, with 30 elected by first past the post and 60 under the additional member system. I think it would be wrong, but rather than see the Assembly emasculated and turned into a little puppet government, I would prefer to see that.

On that basis, therefore, I appeal to the speakers in this debate and to all who are concerned about politics in Wales to see to it that that reform is brought about. The Government have made a great error and committed a massive blunder, but the situation is not irredeemable. They can use that blunder to bring about an utterly necessary reform—that of increasing the number to a viable level of 90 or thereabouts. We have been told that Scotland has 129 Members, which is one Member for each 39,000 of its population. Northern Ireland has 108 Members, one for each 15,700 of its population. Wales has 60 Members, which is one for every 48,000 of its population. I hope that those who cry for equality, equity and justice will accept the case.

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[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords, after the powerful declaration by the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, that this is a matter for the people of Wales and no one else, I rise with some trepidation. I do not even have the advantage of a name that can be brilliantly transposed into Welsh by the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan—

[Lord Morgan]

Foulkes is a Welsh name.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Nor was I going to pray in aid the fact that I was born in Oswestry, because that is three miles over the border. However, as my noble friend said, there are some justifications for me to be able to speak in this debate.

[Lord Morgan]

Is my noble friend aware that his name actually begins with two little fs?

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Not any more, I am glad to say, because that would be very difficult. It is bad enough having a title without having two little fs in one’s name, especially in Scotland.

In an excellent and articulate speech, the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan of Ely, said that this was a matter for the people of Wales—as did the noble Lord, Lord Wigley. I took it that they meant the elected representatives of the people of Wales—we are not going to put everything to a referendum. We live and work in a devolved system and there are representatives of the people of Wales in this Parliament and in the National Assembly. This is devolution. We are not separate. We remain part of the United Kingdom and we still have a responsibility within this Parliament. We must exercise it with caution and care, but we have a responsibility.

This is not a party-political point, so I shall try to put it in a different context. I am genuinely worried that in a unicameral system such as that of Wales, if my party achieved an overall majority in both the Executive and legislature, it could change the electoral system so that it had even more of an advantage on a permanent basis. That would be wrong. We have to remember that checks and balances are needed in what I hope will remain a devolved system. I hope that this Parliament will be the check and balance that ensures that our devolved Parliaments do not do anything anti-democratic.

My second point echoes what my noble friend Lord Touhig and others said about the piecemeal nature of constitutional reform. In deference to the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, I accept that my own Government did not consider fully the implications of the constitutional reform we undertook. We did it with the best will in the world, and I supported it because I had been a devolutionist for a long time. I campaigned for it as far back as the 1960s and 1970s. However, to some extent we did not work out all the consequences or anticipate some of the unintended consequences. It is important to draw lessons from that. We should learn from experience, and so I say to the current Government: be careful about what you are doing with this piecemeal constitutional reform.

As others said, we have many balls in the air at the moment. In Wales we have the Silk commission with two remits. Scotland will take a monumental decision, probably in 2014, on whether to remain part of the United Kingdom. That will have implications not just for Scotland and England but for Wales and Northern Ireland. Those have to be taken account of as well. We also have Sir William McKay—the other day I called him Bill McKay and was told off—heading a commission on the West Lothian question. We do not know when he will report or what he will say. My noble friend referred to the elephant in the room being the Scottish referendum. It may be the elephant, but we also have the rhinoceros of Lords reform. There are major things that will affect what we are doing. That is why I wonder if it is wise to press ahead so quickly with constitutional change in Wales.

I also wonder whether it is wise because there have been problems with the system. We have ended up with a dog’s breakfast not just with constitutional changes but with the electoral system. For those standing for seats in the European Parliament there is a list system. I shall take Scotland as an example. For the UK Parliament we have first past the post, for the Scottish Parliament we have AMS—which I shall come back to in a moment—and for local government we have STV. I have always been a strong supporter of first past the post. People will accuse me of being a tribal Labour loyalist, but I support it for a variety of reasons. They include stability of government, and the identity and accountability of the elected Member with the constituency. While I recognise that things have moved on, perhaps we should simplify the situation. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, suggested STV for Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections. At least that would simplify and improve things to some extent. It should be looked at.

The existing system of AMS is almost the same in Scotland as in Wales. We have constituency Members and additional Members. Like the noble Lord, Lord German, I was a regional or list Member. There are two different kinds of Members. I confess that it was much easier for me as a regional Member to be without the constituency burden. I was a constituency MP for 26 years and I know the burdens. I did not have them as a regional Member. That is one thing that is wrong with there being two types of MSPs or AMs with different roles and pressures.

There is another thing that is wrong, relating to standing for both bodies. We, as a party, for three elections stopped people standing for both; and then we realised that that position was impossible to sustain. What happened was that initially—in 1999 and then in 2003—we held most of the constituency seats. Most of the SNP, our main opponents, were regional Members. The regional Members targeted a constituency seat, set up an office, adopted a candidate for that seat and challenged the local Member. That created problems as regards Members’ relationships with officials, and with MSPs of different parties raising the same kind of questions on behalf of constituents. That certainly created problems.

The other thing that the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, said about bringing in the AMS system was that it was to benefit the Labour Party. I wish to goodness that that had been the case. The Labour Party benefited from the previous system. The noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, knows this as one of the conspirators who achieved it on behalf of his party—although he was perfectly entitled to do it—knows that he and the Liberal Democrats negotiated with Labour in Scotland and managed to achieve the additional member system, which was replicated in Wales. I mean no disrespect, but Wales followed on and it strongly benefited the Liberal Democrats. I can understand why they are so enthusiastic about that system.

There are many things that need looking at. Even David Steel—I am sorry, the noble Lord, Lord Steel—who is one of the architects of this system, along with the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, and others, is now disenchanted with the additional member system and thinks that we need to review it. This then relates to the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, and others about the size of the Assembly. We are trying to make an artificial arrangement and assist the Government into having a 60-Member Assembly. It is a system that will not work with 60 Members, and having 80 does not seem to be a great improvement. I must say that a figure of 90 sounds about right. Of course, some people will throw their arms up and say that it will cost more money. I defended MPs’ salaries, which was not popular, but if 90 is the right number, we should have the courage to stand up and defend that view, and say that in order to have proper scrutiny, and a Government and Opposition who operate well, there needs to be more Members—especially if more and more is being devolved to the Welsh Assembly, there should be proper scrutiny of education, the health service and other devolved areas.

Then there is the question of double-jobbing. I had never heard that phrase until I read this Green Paper. I do not know who made it up. I do not think that the Minister had heard that wonderful expression. I think that officials suddenly came up with it. It is right to say that you cannot do both. If you choose an arbitrary point at which you must give up one seat when you get another, you have to be careful. Some degree of flexibility is needed. If there is still the AMS system for constituency vacancies, there must be a by-election. For regional vacancies, the next person on the list takes over. However, what happens for an independent Member? I hope that this never arises, but my lovely friend Margo MacDonald had to retire during her term in the Parliament. There is no mechanism for replacing her. That issue needs to be looked at, and I tried to raise it during our discussions on the Scotland Bill. The whole system needs to be reviewed, but this does not deal with that at all. It makes it worse. It does not deal with any of the problems properly; it makes them a great deal worse.

My plea to the Minister is this: go back to my good friend Cheryl Gillan. She is a Scot as well, which is interesting—

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

She claims that she is Welsh.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Others say she is English.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

She is an intelligent person. The Minister should go back to her and say that the time is not right to do this. It will make it worse, given all the implications that are looming. I agree with my noble friend Lord Touhig that probably the best and most intelligent thinking on constitutional reform that I have seen in 26 years in the Commons and now six years here is reflected in the alternative report that came out of the Joint Committee on House of Lords Reform. It asked for a comprehensive look to make sure—

[Baroness Randerson]

Does the noble Lord accept that under the current legislation, you cannot have the status quo without depleting the number of Assembly Members. I cannot recall without a close reading of the Government of Wales Act 2006, but I am absolutely sure that it must provide for an Assembly of 60. You could not have an Assembly of 60 under the current rules. Something has to be done and therefore a consultation is required.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

The noble Baroness may be right because she knows a great deal more about the detail of the position in Wales than I. If that is the case, perhaps I can make a plea to do the minimum necessary. Do nothing that will create problems in terms of the other things we are looking at. If it can be done, let us hold back until further consideration has taken place. I say that because the unintended consequences of constitutional reform can be very damaging indeed, as we have found in Scotland. We were told that we had a system of elections in which no party would ever have an overall majority, but of course that is manifestly not the case. As I say, sometimes the unintended consequences can be pretty dramatic, as they have been in Scotland. That is why we should think very carefully before embarking on something that could create many more problems than it is meant to resolve.

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[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

My Lords, I have no interest to declare other than that I have enjoyed going down memory lane, being back in the Welsh Grand Committee and hearing contributions from a number of former colleagues there. Perhaps if I were to follow my good friend the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, I would confess that I was held up at Swansea High Street Station as I was trying to leave this morning by a queue of unemployed young people wanting to lobby me on the provisions of this Green Paper.

I follow the point about respect which is being made by the noble Lord, Lord Elis-Thomas. If we are to change constitutions, we should do so, as far as possible, after full and genuine consultation and on a non-partisan basis. If it were not so, the party which felt aggrieved would feel quite justified in altering the situation after another election. I felt that the reduction from 650 to 600 parliamentary seats was done in a partisan manner. It was a figure pulled out of a hat: it had a disproportionately adverse effect on Wales and will mightily reduce the weight of Wales at Westminster. The National Assembly is now a full and accepted part of the political landscape of Wales and is evolving in a highly mature way. The principle of respect mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Elis-Thomas, should mean that, for a wholly internal Welsh matter like this one, we have some way of saying “Well of course it is a reserved matter; yes the Parliament here at Westminster has to have overall responsibility; but surely there should be some formula for subcontracting the real work on this to the Assembly”. In the spirit which the First Minister has shown, I am sure that there would be a very rigorous and proper debate there.

At this point in the progress of the Assembly—in a direction we know not where—they should be in the driving seat and we should be allowing them to make their own decisions. I agree with the Green Paper that the spirit is not an absolutist one. On the various issues which have been raised, people of good will can come down easily on one side or the other. To be fair to the Government, although they express their own preference, there is no closed book on this.

On the various proposals in terms of constituencies, we currently have a distribution of 40:20 and an overall number of 60. Whatever the merits of an increase to 80 or 90, I do not think Welsh public opinion would be happy to see this. I hear the arguments about leadership, but there is a strong tide flowing against more elected representatives. In spite of the recent accretion of powers to the Assembly and despite the fact that there will eventually be an overwhelming case for increasing the number, I am not persuaded that we have yet reached that point along the continuum.

I would like to have a personal chat with the noble Lord, Lord Elis-Thomas, on this, but the Assembly meets for two days a week, plus committees, and I do not have the feeling that it is overwhelmed. However, I hear the case that there is inadequate scrutiny and there may be an argument for finding more ways of having checks and balances on whichever party is the leading party in the Assembly. Whereas the House of Lords has a function as a check and balance on the Executive, there is no similar mechanism within the Assembly—but that is another debate for another time.

On the issue of 40:20, I recognise that there has to be a change and the most logical and easy one is to move to 30:30 in the mean time, using the 30 constituencies in Wales. However, I am not persuaded that the reduction in the number of seats to 30 will necessarily take place. If, as is very possible, the House of Lords Bill does not go through, particularly if the guillotine is not accepted—and the current mood among many Conservatives in the House of Commons is not to vote for the guillotine—there may have to be a deal where the Liberal Democrats would lose on the reduction of 650 to 600 and accept a delay on the implementation of the constituencies Bill and the Conservatives will say, “Well, House of Lords reform will go to another day”. If that is so, where are we left in respect of the consequential position in Wales if there is nothing to be consequential to? There is a strong case for not proceeding in haste on this but to see, if there is a deal struck and there is delay on the constituencies Bill, whether there is a case for not altering the status quo at this time.

A number of noble Lords have made the point that perhaps this Green Paper is not radical enough. The whole point of a Green Paper is that it sets out the stall and all the options. For example, it does not set out the possibility of having two Members per constituency in the Assembly, which I am not particularly wedded to but is worth looking at. That would be one means of having a gender balance. The gender balance is very good in the Assembly but it could be a means of institutionalising that. A whole series of more radical proposals could be looked at, which are worthy of debate, some of which I personally do not feel wedded to but at least could solve the gender balance institutionally. There are other, more radical things we could look at; for example, ways and means of having stronger checks and balances on the Welsh Government. The Green Paper is too timid.

On the length of term, the next general election is meant to be in 2015 and the next Assembly election in 2016. I am not a Chartist in favour of having elections every year, but there is an argument for shorter terms, particularly when there is not very much on the governmental side in Wales, to get closer to the people and give them the option of deciding on their representatives more frequently. There is also some merit in having cohabitation and a sort of creative tension between whatever party is in power at Westminster and the party in power at Cardiff. That is one thing that we need to look at.

On the question of the dual-hatting—

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Double-jobbing.