Wales: National Assembly Elections

Lord Wallace of Tankerness Excerpts

Monday 18th June 2012 Grand Committee

Moved By

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

That the Grand Committee takes note of the Green Paper on the future electoral arrangements for the National Assembly for Wales.

[The Advocate-General for Scotland (Lord Wallace of Tankerness)]

My Lords, it is a very welcome that we should have this debate, which is an opportunity for noble Lords on all sides of the House to contribute their views on the Green Paper. Since the coalition was formed in 2010, the Government have delivered major reforms to the country’s political system, making it fairer and more representative. In the previous Session, as many noble Lords present will recall, we took forward two major pieces of constitutional legislation: the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Although the Acts related to parliamentary elections and therefore extended to the whole of the UK, they had specific implications for Wales.

On 21 May, my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Wales published a Green Paper on future electoral arrangements for the National Assembly for Wales, which sought views primarily on two issues that have arisen as a consequence of these Acts: whether the link between Assembly constituencies and parliamentary constituencies in Wales should be reinstated, and whether the Assembly’s term should change permanently from four to five years. In addition, it sought views on two other issues affecting elections to the National Assembly for Wales: whether a candidate at an Assembly election should be allowed to stand as both a constituency and a regional candidate, and whether Assembly Members should be prevented from becoming Members of Parliament.

The Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act 2011 provided for a reduction in the size of the House of Commons and for constituencies of more equal size, so that a vote in one constituency would be worth the same as a vote in any other. Historically, the boundaries of the 40 constituencies for the National Assembly for Wales have been the same as those of parliamentary constituencies in Wales. The PVSC Act broke this link in order to ensure that fewer parliamentary constituencies in Wales would not mean correspondingly fewer Assembly constituencies and therefore a smaller Assembly.

However, the effect of breaking the link was that there was now no mechanism to review and alter Assembly boundaries in future. We must put in place a new mechanism—Assembly boundaries cannot be frozen in aspic—and in doing so we should consider whether it would be better to retain 40 Assembly constituencies but make them of a more equal size, or to re-establish the link with the boundaries of parliamentary constituencies. The Boundary Commission for Wales will recommend 30 parliamentary constituencies in Wales as a result of the current review, so reinstating the link would mean a change to 30 Assembly constituencies.

Each option has its merits. If we retained 40 Assembly constituencies, many electors would remain within their current constituencies. However, moving to 30 constituencies would retain the relative simplicity of the current arrangements and would enable electors to continue to vote in the same constituencies for parliamentary elections as for Assembly elections. It is important to make it clear that neither option preserves the status quo. If 40 constituencies are retained, they will be made more equal in size—Assembly constituencies are currently highly unequal. The Government’s reforms to parliamentary constituencies are underpinned by the principles of fairness, and we see no reason why that should not also be the case for Assembly constituencies.

A move to 30 constituencies would mean an increase from 20 to 30 in the number of regional Assembly Members, in order to ensure that the size of the Assembly would stay the same, with each of the five regions electing six Assembly Members instead of the current four. The number of parliamentary constituencies in Wales—and in any other part of UK—may change over time. Restoring the link between parliamentary and Assembly constituencies would mean that the number of Assembly constituencies would change when the number of parliamentary constituencies changed. To take account of this, the Government propose that if in the future the number of Assembly constituencies changes from 30 to, say, 29 or 31, the number of regional Members would increase or decrease accordingly to ensure a 60-Member Assembly. These regional seats would be distributed through the Sainte-Laguë method, which is generally acknowledged to be a fair way to allocate seats. The Government make clear in the Green Paper our preference to move to 30 constituencies but, as my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Wales has indicated, this is not set in stone and we want to hear which option people prefer.

The second major piece of constitutional legislation we introduced is the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which establishes five-year fixed terms for Parliament. This will prevent a future Prime Minister being able to hold an election when it is merely politically expedient to do so. The date of the next parliamentary election is 7 May 2015. However, this date coincides with the elections to the National Assembly for Wales.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Is it not possible that this Parliament could be dissolved in some other way before that date? That could happen if, for example, the coalition was to split and the Prime Minister no longer felt that he had the confidence of the House of Commons. The general election might then take place on a date other than that which the noble and learned Lord has specified.

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

That is a theoretical possibility, and the provisions for triggering an election are set out in the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. Indeed, I can recall the noble Lord and other noble Lords present today debating those provisions at some considerable length. So it is possible, but the primary position under the Act is that the next election will take place on 7 May 2015.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

My Lords—

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

Perhaps I may make a little further progress before I take the intervention.

As I have said, that date would coincide with elections to the National Assembly for Wales. The Welsh Government raised concerns that a parliamentary poll on the same day could overshadow an Assembly election and, following a vote in the Assembly, the Fixed-term Parliaments Act itself deferred the date of the next Assembly elections by one year, to 2016.

[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

The Minister is obviously right if that is what happens, but is it wise to move ahead with other legislation on the basis of something that may not actually happen? It may be the most likely event, but it is not necessarily an absolute certainty. Is it wise to change legislation on the basis of something that may not be final?

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

The essence of a consultation is for considerations of that kind to be imported into the consultation, but the position is that if the law remains unchanged, and if it is the case that the next general election is held on 7 May 2015, under the five-year fixed-term provisions, five years hence from that date would be the first Thursday in May 2020. If the law with regard to the National Assembly for Wales has not changed, then by reverting back to a four-year term, the Welsh Assembly will also take place on the same day in May 2020. That is why we are examining the question of whether the Assembly should move on a more permanent basis to a five-year term. However, that is to accept that at any time either in this Parliament, the next Parliament or the one after that, there could be a situation where the Parliament does not run for its full five-year term. No doubt future Parliaments would have to address the consequences of that. It is also worth pointing out that if we had not had an Act for fixed-term Parliaments and this Parliament, as previous Parliaments have done, ran to its full term, the dates for the two elections in May 2015 would coincide without any prior provision having been made for that.

[Lord Elystan-Morgan]

I am most grateful to the noble and learned Lord for allowing me to intervene. Am I right in thinking that the five-year term does not mean a period of exactly five years, because the date for the election can be brought forward or delayed by 28 days on either side of the date? In other words, although it is inevitable that if nothing is done, the next Welsh election will take place at about the same time as the general election, it need not take place on the same day. I apologise if I am wrong about this, but I do not think I am.

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

I am trying desperately to think back to the debates that we had. I think I am right—and I am sure that by the end of this debate I will be corrected if I am not—that the Bill was amended in its passage through your Lordships’ House. It removed the earlier provision but maintained the possibility for a later provision. I think it is also the case that the Assembly has some power under the relevant legislation to vary the date. I have no doubt that the former Presiding Officer will be able to correct me if I have got it wrong, but I think I am right that the Assembly itself has some leeway.

The Government are seeking views on whether this temporary move to a five-year fixed term should be made permanent. Moving the Assembly to permanent five-year terms would mean it is less likely—although not guaranteed, as we have been discussing—that parliamentary and Assembly elections would be held on the same day in future, so there would be less chance of a parliamentary election overshadowing an Assembly election and of voters being confused by voting in two elections, using two different electoral systems, on the same day. To clarify the point I made a moment ago, it is in fact the Secretary of State who can vary the date of an Assembly poll by one month—but I think that even with one month there would still be the possibility of overshadowing.

However, combining elections can be beneficial by reducing costs—that is the other side of the coin. Holding the 2011 Assembly elections and the referendum on the alternative vote electoral system on the same day is estimated to have saved around £1 million in Wales. Holding elections on the same day may also help to increase turnout. The Government do not have a fixed view on whether the Assembly should have a four- or five-year term, but we believe that the potential impact on the elector is the most important thing to consider in deciding the length of the term.

As I have indicated, the Green Paper also seeks views on two further electoral issues in Wales. Since the 2007 Assembly elections, it has been prohibited for a candidate at an Assembly election to stand for both a constituency and a regional seat. This impacts disproportionately on smaller parties, whose candidates must choose whether to risk everything by standing as a constituency candidate when they could potentially be elected via the regional list instead. Conversely, it also affects parties who have done better than expected in a constituency election. In time, it is possible that high-quality candidates could be lost to the Assembly through this ban. The Government do not think that this situation is satisfactory, and believe the ban on dual candidacy should be removed.

The Green Paper also considers the issue of “double-jobbing”. The Government note concerns that have been raised over whether elected representatives who sit in more than one elected legislature at a time are able adequately to represent both sets of constituents. Double-jobbing is already prohibited in the European Parliament, as well as countries such as Canada and Australia, and the Government are seeking views on whether Assembly Members should be prevented from standing as Members of the Westminster Parliament simultaneously.

This Green Paper has not come out of the blue. It provides a structure to the debate that has been ongoing for more than a year about the make-up of the Assembly in light of the reforms that the Government have put in place nationally. It seeks to bring this debate out into the open. The consultation runs until 13 August and we are seeking the views of everyone—not least your Lordships—with an interest in the electoral arrangements of the National Assembly for Wales. I hope that this debate will help to explain and put forward ideas and views on these issues. Therefore, in encouraging noble Lords to make their views known, I beg to move.

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

My Lords, I thank all noble Lords who took part in this debate, which has been very useful. First, I acknowledge a comment by the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan. I was indeed aware that the origins of the name Wallace come from the Shropshire-Wales boundary; I think the names are very similar. That only proves to me that we are pretty much a mongrel island and therefore those who would try to artificially break it up should reflect on the fact that peoples have moved around these islands for centuries. That may be one of the things that bind us.

The noble Lord, Lord Touhig, asked why we were debating this as opposed to many other issues. I think it is a red herring to claim that if you are focusing on one thing you are completely ignoring other issues. There is no doubt that the Government are absolutely committed to pursuing the economic objective of recovering the country’s finances from the situation we inherited in May 2010. Very often that is not done by legislation, and just because we are focusing on one or two items of legislation does not mean to say that we are taking our eye off the ball on the fundamental issues of the economy.

I would welcome more debates on Welsh issues, be they economic or otherwise. Having served in the House of Commons, the Scottish Parliament and the House of Lords, the ways in which the usual channels move are mysterious and wondrous to behold, but I am sure that we will try to find other opportunities to debate Welsh issues, and that there will be general support for that on all sides of the Committee.

[Lord Touhig]

I am most grateful for that commitment from the Minister. As the grandson of Katie Wallace, I knew that I could always trust a Wallace.

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

The noble Lord is my kinsman.

A number of noble Lords raised questions about the voting system and the size of the Assembly, so I should perhaps say at the outset what this consultation paper does not try to do. It was never the intention that it should open up these far more fundamental issues. It was clear from the comments of the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, that there is no consensus on the size of the Assembly. Although this is not an issue for this consultation paper, the speech of the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, on the need for scrutiny, and the presidency—or vice-presidency—of the organisation to promote an Assembly of 80 Members elected by STV, to which my noble friend Lord German has recently been appointed, lead me to suspect that it will not go away.

When the Silk commission moves on to Part 2 there will be an opportunity for representations to be made, not on the voting system but on where the responsibility for that may lie. I may want to come back to this issue. It would have been wrong, in this consultation, to have gone into the much wider issues of the size of the Assembly or the voting system. It is intended to address mechanisms because of a situation that has arisen as a result of the two pieces of UK legislation to which I referred.

[Lord Elystan-Morgan]

My Lords, I was seeking to make the point that there is an inexorable nexus between the issue of a possible 90-Member Assembly and the question of the need for a minimum number of persons available to scrutinise legislation. I was unwilling to nail my argument to any particular number. My understanding is—and my noble friend Lord Elis-Thomas may be able to confirm it—that on one count the number of persons available to scrutinise would possibly be as low as 18. If that is true, one is talking not about the efficiency of an Assembly but about the very existence of an Assembly.

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

The noble Lord raises an important point about scrutiny, which was echoed by the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, when he spoke about unicameral situations. However, that goes far wider than what we seek to do in this Green Paper. That does not mean to say that the debate will not continue. The matter must be addressed in the Green Paper as a consequence of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act. There may have been a slight misunderstanding by my noble friend Lord German. Both the Government of Wales Act 1998 and the Government of Wales Act 2006 stated that individual constituencies for the National Assembly of Wales would be the same as Westminster constituencies. That link was broken under Section 13 of the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act, so the status quo would be to have the existing 40 Welsh Assembly constituencies plus the 20 regional seats and, as is widely anticipated, the 30 Westminster seats.

We are bringing forward this Green Paper because two choices must be addressed. The status quo is not an option because, under the present arrangements with 40 Members, the constituency of Arfon—which I think the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, represented in the previous Assembly—has an electorate of some 40,000, and Cardiff South and Penarth has an electorate of between 76,000 and 78,000. That is a disparity within Wales and therefore a boundary commission would look at the size of the constituencies even if the number remained at 40. One way or t’other, we are either going to have a boundary commission to look at the 40 constituencies or move to the 30:30 system, as indicated in the Green Paper. It is in that context that we must look at these proposals. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, that this is why it needs to be done and why we are consulting on it now.

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

I accept that and I hope I made it clear that I understand why it needs to be done. There is a legal hole that needs to be filled. However, I wonder if the noble and learned Lord could address the issue raised by my noble friend Lord Foulkes. Why can we not keep this to an absolute minimum? Why can we not plug the legal hole and look at the broader questions once the Silk commission has reported?

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

My Lords, the primary consultation is about plugging the legal hole, but it is only fair to point out that when we agreed to extend this term of the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament to five years, I indicated from the Dispatch Box in the Chamber that we would consult on whether that should be a permanent arrangement. It seems an appropriate time to do that. Also, the issues of whether a person should be allowed to stand for the regional list and a constituency or whether there should be so-called double jobbing fit in neatly when a consultation is being undertaken.

Perhaps I may respond to a specific question put by the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, about the discussions between my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Wales and Paul Silk. The terms of reference for the Silk commission, which were agreed by all the political parties in the Assembly, specifically exclude the Assembly’s electoral arrangements. It would not be appropriate to discuss with Paul Silk a matter that is not within the commission’s remit. However, it is the case that my right honourable friend has regular discussions with Paul Silk, as chairman of the commission, with regard to its progress.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

On the point of commitments, can the Minister tell us today what specific commitment was made to the First Minister by the Prime Minister in terms of consultation?

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

My Lords, I have heard of that before today. I can confirm that the Prime Minister and the First Minister have met on a number of occasions and it is my belief that, among other matters, this issue has been discussed, but I am not aware of any firm commitment on the part of the Prime Minister. I know that the issue has been raised, but I am not aware of the nature of any firm commitment. I cannot go beyond that because it is not a matter within my knowledge. I am aware that the matter has been raised, but I am not aware of any commitment having been made.

[Lord Wigley]

I am very grateful. The Minister will be aware of the tenor of the representations that have been made not just from this side, but also from certain colleagues on the other side. It should be the wishes of the people of Wales as expressed in the National Assembly that determine the outcome. Will he therefore give an undertaking to those noble Lords who have taken part in the debate today that he will take the message back that this is the expectation of Wales, and that we would like a response to that representation?

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

My Lords, I am coming on to address that point and I accept that it is important. In terms of taking messages back, I can assure noble Lords that these proceedings will be read, it is fair to say, avidly by my right honourable friend the Secretary of State. Not only will I report back, but I am sure that they will be read in the Official Report.

[Lord Touhig]

I apologise; the noble and learned Lord is being very generous in giving way. I accept what he says about the Silk commission being excluded from looking at the situation in Wales, but the point of my question was this: was the Silk commission consulted about this Green Paper because it has come out of the blue for all of us?

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

My Lords, it is my understanding that the commission was not consulted, but that was because what this Green Paper is about is beyond its remit. Questions have been raised about these deliberations, and I am aware of the debate last week in the National Assembly for Wales. The fact—one that has been reflected by a number of contributors to the debate—is that the electoral arrangements of the Assembly are a non-devolved matter. The matter is reserved to this Parliament. Indeed, the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, made the point that Wales has two Governments: it has a Government in Wales in the National Assembly and also has a Government here at Westminster. The devolution settlement agreed in the Government of Wales Acts 1998 and 2006, and the distribution of powers that was approved only last year in a referendum, retain the electoral system and arrangements for the Assembly as being matters for the Westminster Parliament.

I accept that those in Plaid Cymru who aspire to much greater powers for the National Assembly for Wales would argue the case that electoral arrangements, and possibly the system, should be devolved—albeit with a two-thirds majority—and clearly that case can be made. The Silk commission does not have within its remit the current electoral arrangements but it does have within its remit the distribution of powers between the Westminster Parliament and the Welsh Assembly. I have no doubt that representations to that effect will be made, but that is not the current devolution settlement.

[Lord Elis-Thomas]

Will the Minister accept that I was not arguing on behalf of Plaid Cymru—I very rarely do, according to some of my party colleagues—but that I was reflecting the agreed consensus of the National Assembly on Tuesday? The UK Government at Westminster ignore such views at their peril.

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

If I did suggest the noble Lord was expressing a party view, I did not intend to—although I think I rather know where he will come from in terms of the distribution of powers. Of course Her Majesty’s Government will have regard to the views of the Assembly, and of all who contribute. We are very keen for people to contribute. It is not the position at present that we should subcontract to the Assembly—as I think the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, put it—given that there is a settlement that has been voted by Parliament and supported in a referendum. But I repeat that we will have regard to the views of the Assembly.

There is no way we are going to change the constitutional arrangement for responsibilities when I have indicated from the outset that there is a need to do something: either have the 40 seats with the new boundaries, which would require the Boundary Commission to be given responsibility for doing that, or move to the 30:30. Of those who expressed a view, the balance was that there were merits in the 30:30 arrangement. The noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, said that otherwise there could be conflict or a lack of cohesion. My noble friend Lord Roberts of Conwy said there would be less confusion for electors or party organisers. I think we would all accept that at the end of the day the electors are more important than the party organisers, but let us not forget that the parties and the party organisers help the wheels of democracy to turn and it is important that these wheels are properly oiled. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, made the point that whatever we do, it should not be less proportional. Clearly 30:30 would not be less proportional, but if 30:30 was doubled up with Members elected by first past the post, that would be less proportional.

The point was made about the position in Scotland. It is fair to say that in Scotland the boundaries for the Westminster constituencies are different, principally because the link was not broken between the parliamentary constituency and the Scottish Parliament constituency. When the Westminster Parliament reduced from 72 to 59 pre-2005, there would have been an automatic reduction in the size of the Scottish Parliament, as intended by the 1998 legislation—I remember the debates—but by the time we got there, there was a view that that was not right, that the parliament should not decrease in size, and therefore the link was broken. That was the history of that. In 2006, the Arbuthnott commission reported that,

“most individual voters surveyed ‘claimed not to care’ about whether constituency boundaries were coterminous, and that it was ‘not an issue which would dissuade them from voting’”.

I appreciate that people have strong views on this issue and that is precisely why we are consulting on it.

On the position of the five-year fixed term, I think that there was a consensus across the Committee, given what has happened and the recognition that it was not desirable in 2015 to have elections on the same day, that the arguments that were persuasive then remain persuasive. With regard to my noble friend Lady Randerson, it is my understanding that local elections in Wales are a devolved matter, but Welsh Ministers have moved the 2016 local elections in Wales to 2017 to avoid a clash with the Assembly election. That matter has clearly been addressed.

As regards the ban on double candidacy—and the quality of any democracy is how it considers a range of parties—the point was made that it impacts more heavily on the smaller parties. The noble Baroness, Lady Morgan, and my noble friend Lady Randerson mentioned the position of the Leader of the Welsh Conservative Party who was rewarded for his party’s success by losing his seat, which seems to be somewhat ironic. It was the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, who said that if international comparisons are to be made, it is probably only the Ukraine that does this. The point was also made by the Arbuthnott report in Scotland that the electorate did not have a problem with people standing in both the individual constituency and the regional list.

On the question of double jobbing—I will certainly report the angst about the terminology—again it is quite clear that there are issues on both sides, and that is why the Government are consulting on this. I was struck by what the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, said about how difficult he found it. We are all declaring interests and, after the Scottish Parliament was established in 1999, I served for two years as both the Member of Parliament for Orkney and Shetland and the Member of the Scottish Parliament for Orkney. I managed to do that because I knew that I was not going to do so beyond 2001. There is an issue as to whether, if we were to go down that road, there should be some flexibility whereby people could see out a term of office to avoid a by-election, particularly if they have only one year left. However, I hear what the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, said about perhaps there being an automatic election; and that is clearly a relevant consideration to take into account in a consultation.

I realise that I have probably not done justice to everyone’s comments, but I hope that I have addressed the main points raised. I assure the Committee that the contributions to the debate will be taken into account, as indeed we will pay proper respect to the views expressed in the National Assembly for Wales.

Motion agreed.