Wales: National Assembly Elections

Baroness Morgan of Ely Excerpts

Monday 18th June 2012 Grand Committee

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

My Lords, I thank the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace of Tankerness, for his introductory remarks. I have three questions to ask in relation to this Green Paper. First, why does this need to be done? Secondly, who should decide? Thirdly, why now?

The noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, has tried to address the first issue. Of course, the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act has gone through; there is a boundaries review; there is a reduction in the number of MPs from 40 to 30; and of course previously there was this coterminosity between the MPs’ constituencies and the first past the post constituencies in the Assembly. Of course, that meant that there will be a hole somewhere. If we are to carry on with the current arrangements, we would still need to consider the fact that at some point we may need a boundary review in Wales for the Assembly. I therefore understand that there is a legal hole somewhere that we need to fill. There is also a Fixed-term Parliament Act that will have a knock-on effect. It is not a good idea to have a general election at the same time as an Assembly election.

However, my real concern is who should decide. We know that there is a legal right for the UK Government to decide this, as there is a legal right to them to decide if they want to abolish the Assembly if they wanted to—but would they do that? They would not do that because it would be wrong. The will of the people was expressed in a referendum back in 1997, and the package that was then presented to the people included the structure and make-up of how the Assembly is elected. It is therefore possible to impose these proposals and to make them happen, but is it morally right to do so? It should be remembered that in 1997, all three main political parties determined the way that they would like the Assembly to be elected. There is a real question mark there. It is not therefore a good idea to have a referendum to ask the public about this.

At the very minimum, there should be an agreement by the elected representatives of the Assembly that this matter is of critical importance if we believe in devolution. There is a real question mark. What does devolution mean if you can keep on imposing things from London? The principle has been established with the Scotland Act. The matter was not concluded until the Scottish Parliament had spoken. Therefore, my first question to the Minister is, can he give us some kind of assurance that the Assembly will be able to give its view, and that that view will be taken into consideration and accepted by the Government? That is absolutely critical. My understanding is that the First Minister and the previous Presiding Officer were given assurances by the current Prime Minister that the change would not happen without the agreement of the Assembly. It is also worth noting that there is not one Cabinet Member from a Welsh constituency in this Government. It really does look like a throwback to the bad old days of governance of Wales from London.

My second question is one of timing. I recognise that there is need for a legal framework, but why now? Significant reviews are being undertaken at the moment. The first is, of course, the Silk review, which has two phases—the first looking at fiscal powers and the other at broader powers for the Assembly. Then there is the commission on the West Lothian question, which, again, may have a significant impact on the relationships between all these different institutions. And then there is the huge elephant in the room—the referendum in Scotland. We cannot ignore the fact that that will happen and that there will be an impact on devolution in the broader sense, whatever the outcome.

The Assembly has already been given a considerable increase in powers recently, but no increase in the number of Assembly Members. It may be that Silk will come up with a whole range of suggestions of what the Assembly could be doing in the future. If that is the case, there could be a case for increasing the number of Assembly Members. Now is therefore the wrong time to be making the proposed changes.

I should like to speak briefly about the substance of the document. It contains an assertion that the Government do not seek to give advantage to any political party—which is very good. However, is that reflected in the proposed model? What modelling has been done to suggest that no particular party will get an advantage for a change to the current system?

It is worth reflecting on the first Assembly election in 1999 when there were 40 first past the post seats, only one of which was won by a Conservative, and eight Conservative seats were won on a top-up regional list system. We are all au fait with the likely outcome, but what modelling has been done? What has been done so far in terms of looking at what the consequences might be? Who might be the winners and losers if the Government are so determined that no particular party will gain an advantage?

It is also worth noting that, if there is going to be an increase in the size of the Assembly—

[The Deputy Chairman of Committees]

My Lords, there is a Division in the House.

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[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

My Lords, it is probably worth noting that there is a degree of suspicion on the part of some political parties due to the way in which we have seen the suggested changes to constituency boundaries and the likely political impact.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Perhaps the noble Baroness will permit me to say that the suspicion is in part because of the effects of the constituency Act, which has borne down most heavily on Wales. Indeed, it has reduced the weight of Wales at Westminster and clearly has important party political implications. That is why, in my judgment, there is a considerable degree of scepticism about the bona fides in this case.

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

Another point I want to make is that it was recognised that there might be a change in the size of the Assembly. It was suggested that if that happens, the change could be made up for on the regional basis of the regional list. It could be, therefore, that there are many more members on the regional list than on the first past the post system. That would be a departure from anything this country has previously seen. I believe that what we are suggesting here may have implications for the long term and that at some point, due to changes in the responsibilities of the Assembly, more powers may be given. There may be a need for more support in the Assembly. If so, I would be really concerned that that would be made up on the regional list.

As regards the dual mandates, in principle, it is difficult to serve two political institutions at the same time. However, it can be beneficial to have some individuals also plugged into the national level. There should not be a double mandate, certainly as regards Assembly Members and Members of Parliament, for more than one year. We should encourage a little bit of movement between the two levels of government, but a case could probably be made for the House of Lords. As yet, we do not have individual Members of the House of Lords democratically elected to represent Wales. We happen to be Welsh people, but we do not represent Wales here. It is an accident and we are not speaking officially for Wales in any capacity. However, despite the fact that some individuals would not have a mandate to speak for the Assembly, it would be useful to keep a link and a channel of information open between the different institutions. I have a concern that, as the Assembly settles, we will see less movement between the institutions. Then there is the question of whether you could or should stand on a constituency list in addition to being on a regional list. I can understand how unjust that felt in 2003 in North Wales, when the constituency Labour Member won and each one of his defeated opponents then popped up on a regional list. On the other hand, I felt a little bit sorry for a Tory—which does not happen very often, I can assure you—when the leader of the Tory group, Nick Bourne, was knocked off the regional list; he was rejected because of the success of his party at a constituency level. So I have a degree of sympathy, which does not happen very often, as I said.

My conclusion and my clear message is this: whatever is decided, it should be decided with the blessing of the Assembly. If it is not, it will be perceived as something being imposed from London and that will be simply storing up trouble for the future.

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[Lord Foulkes of Cumnock]

Not any more, I am glad to say, because that would be very difficult. It is bad enough having a title without having two little fs in one’s name, especially in Scotland.

In an excellent and articulate speech, the noble Baroness, Lady Morgan of Ely, said that this was a matter for the people of Wales—as did the noble Lord, Lord Wigley. I took it that they meant the elected representatives of the people of Wales—we are not going to put everything to a referendum. We live and work in a devolved system and there are representatives of the people of Wales in this Parliament and in the National Assembly. This is devolution. We are not separate. We remain part of the United Kingdom and we still have a responsibility within this Parliament. We must exercise it with caution and care, but we have a responsibility.

This is not a party-political point, so I shall try to put it in a different context. I am genuinely worried that in a unicameral system such as that of Wales, if my party achieved an overall majority in both the Executive and legislature, it could change the electoral system so that it had even more of an advantage on a permanent basis. That would be wrong. We have to remember that checks and balances are needed in what I hope will remain a devolved system. I hope that this Parliament will be the check and balance that ensures that our devolved Parliaments do not do anything anti-democratic.

My second point echoes what my noble friend Lord Touhig and others said about the piecemeal nature of constitutional reform. In deference to the noble Baroness, Lady Randerson, I accept that my own Government did not consider fully the implications of the constitutional reform we undertook. We did it with the best will in the world, and I supported it because I had been a devolutionist for a long time. I campaigned for it as far back as the 1960s and 1970s. However, to some extent we did not work out all the consequences or anticipate some of the unintended consequences. It is important to draw lessons from that. We should learn from experience, and so I say to the current Government: be careful about what you are doing with this piecemeal constitutional reform.

As others said, we have many balls in the air at the moment. In Wales we have the Silk commission with two remits. Scotland will take a monumental decision, probably in 2014, on whether to remain part of the United Kingdom. That will have implications not just for Scotland and England but for Wales and Northern Ireland. Those have to be taken account of as well. We also have Sir William McKay—the other day I called him Bill McKay and was told off—heading a commission on the West Lothian question. We do not know when he will report or what he will say. My noble friend referred to the elephant in the room being the Scottish referendum. It may be the elephant, but we also have the rhinoceros of Lords reform. There are major things that will affect what we are doing. That is why I wonder if it is wise to press ahead so quickly with constitutional change in Wales.

I also wonder whether it is wise because there have been problems with the system. We have ended up with a dog’s breakfast not just with constitutional changes but with the electoral system. For those standing for seats in the European Parliament there is a list system. I shall take Scotland as an example. For the UK Parliament we have first past the post, for the Scottish Parliament we have AMS—which I shall come back to in a moment—and for local government we have STV. I have always been a strong supporter of first past the post. People will accuse me of being a tribal Labour loyalist, but I support it for a variety of reasons. They include stability of government, and the identity and accountability of the elected Member with the constituency. While I recognise that things have moved on, perhaps we should simplify the situation. The noble Lord, Lord Wigley, suggested STV for Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly elections. At least that would simplify and improve things to some extent. It should be looked at.

The existing system of AMS is almost the same in Scotland as in Wales. We have constituency Members and additional Members. Like the noble Lord, Lord German, I was a regional or list Member. There are two different kinds of Members. I confess that it was much easier for me as a regional Member to be without the constituency burden. I was a constituency MP for 26 years and I know the burdens. I did not have them as a regional Member. That is one thing that is wrong with there being two types of MSPs or AMs with different roles and pressures.

There is another thing that is wrong, relating to standing for both bodies. We, as a party, for three elections stopped people standing for both; and then we realised that that position was impossible to sustain. What happened was that initially—in 1999 and then in 2003—we held most of the constituency seats. Most of the SNP, our main opponents, were regional Members. The regional Members targeted a constituency seat, set up an office, adopted a candidate for that seat and challenged the local Member. That created problems as regards Members’ relationships with officials, and with MSPs of different parties raising the same kind of questions on behalf of constituents. That certainly created problems.

The other thing that the noble Lord, Lord Wigley, said about bringing in the AMS system was that it was to benefit the Labour Party. I wish to goodness that that had been the case. The Labour Party benefited from the previous system. The noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, knows this as one of the conspirators who achieved it on behalf of his party—although he was perfectly entitled to do it—knows that he and the Liberal Democrats negotiated with Labour in Scotland and managed to achieve the additional member system, which was replicated in Wales. I mean no disrespect, but Wales followed on and it strongly benefited the Liberal Democrats. I can understand why they are so enthusiastic about that system.

There are many things that need looking at. Even David Steel—I am sorry, the noble Lord, Lord Steel—who is one of the architects of this system, along with the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, and others, is now disenchanted with the additional member system and thinks that we need to review it. This then relates to the point made by the noble Lord, Lord Elystan-Morgan, and others about the size of the Assembly. We are trying to make an artificial arrangement and assist the Government into having a 60-Member Assembly. It is a system that will not work with 60 Members, and having 80 does not seem to be a great improvement. I must say that a figure of 90 sounds about right. Of course, some people will throw their arms up and say that it will cost more money. I defended MPs’ salaries, which was not popular, but if 90 is the right number, we should have the courage to stand up and defend that view, and say that in order to have proper scrutiny, and a Government and Opposition who operate well, there needs to be more Members—especially if more and more is being devolved to the Welsh Assembly, there should be proper scrutiny of education, the health service and other devolved areas.

Then there is the question of double-jobbing. I had never heard that phrase until I read this Green Paper. I do not know who made it up. I do not think that the Minister had heard that wonderful expression. I think that officials suddenly came up with it. It is right to say that you cannot do both. If you choose an arbitrary point at which you must give up one seat when you get another, you have to be careful. Some degree of flexibility is needed. If there is still the AMS system for constituency vacancies, there must be a by-election. For regional vacancies, the next person on the list takes over. However, what happens for an independent Member? I hope that this never arises, but my lovely friend Margo MacDonald had to retire during her term in the Parliament. There is no mechanism for replacing her. That issue needs to be looked at, and I tried to raise it during our discussions on the Scotland Bill. The whole system needs to be reviewed, but this does not deal with that at all. It makes it worse. It does not deal with any of the problems properly; it makes them a great deal worse.

My plea to the Minister is this: go back to my good friend Cheryl Gillan. She is a Scot as well, which is interesting—

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

She claims that she is Welsh.

[Lord Anderson of Swansea]

Others say she is English.

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[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

I accept that and I hope I made it clear that I understand why it needs to be done. There is a legal hole that needs to be filled. However, I wonder if the noble and learned Lord could address the issue raised by my noble friend Lord Foulkes. Why can we not keep this to an absolute minimum? Why can we not plug the legal hole and look at the broader questions once the Silk commission has reported?

[Lord Wallace of Tankerness]

My Lords, the primary consultation is about plugging the legal hole, but it is only fair to point out that when we agreed to extend this term of the Welsh Assembly and the Scottish Parliament to five years, I indicated from the Dispatch Box in the Chamber that we would consult on whether that should be a permanent arrangement. It seems an appropriate time to do that. Also, the issues of whether a person should be allowed to stand for the regional list and a constituency or whether there should be so-called double jobbing fit in neatly when a consultation is being undertaken.

Perhaps I may respond to a specific question put by the noble Lord, Lord Touhig, about the discussions between my right honourable friend the Secretary of State for Wales and Paul Silk. The terms of reference for the Silk commission, which were agreed by all the political parties in the Assembly, specifically exclude the Assembly’s electoral arrangements. It would not be appropriate to discuss with Paul Silk a matter that is not within the commission’s remit. However, it is the case that my right honourable friend has regular discussions with Paul Silk, as chairman of the commission, with regard to its progress.