Wales: National Assembly Elections

Baroness Gibson of Market Rasen Excerpts

Monday 18th June 2012 Grand Committee

[Baroness Morgan of Ely]

My Lords, I thank the noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace of Tankerness, for his introductory remarks. I have three questions to ask in relation to this Green Paper. First, why does this need to be done? Secondly, who should decide? Thirdly, why now?

The noble and learned Lord, Lord Wallace, has tried to address the first issue. Of course, the Parliamentary Voting System and Constituencies Act has gone through; there is a boundaries review; there is a reduction in the number of MPs from 40 to 30; and of course previously there was this coterminosity between the MPs’ constituencies and the first past the post constituencies in the Assembly. Of course, that meant that there will be a hole somewhere. If we are to carry on with the current arrangements, we would still need to consider the fact that at some point we may need a boundary review in Wales for the Assembly. I therefore understand that there is a legal hole somewhere that we need to fill. There is also a Fixed-term Parliament Act that will have a knock-on effect. It is not a good idea to have a general election at the same time as an Assembly election.

However, my real concern is who should decide. We know that there is a legal right for the UK Government to decide this, as there is a legal right to them to decide if they want to abolish the Assembly if they wanted to—but would they do that? They would not do that because it would be wrong. The will of the people was expressed in a referendum back in 1997, and the package that was then presented to the people included the structure and make-up of how the Assembly is elected. It is therefore possible to impose these proposals and to make them happen, but is it morally right to do so? It should be remembered that in 1997, all three main political parties determined the way that they would like the Assembly to be elected. There is a real question mark there. It is not therefore a good idea to have a referendum to ask the public about this.

At the very minimum, there should be an agreement by the elected representatives of the Assembly that this matter is of critical importance if we believe in devolution. There is a real question mark. What does devolution mean if you can keep on imposing things from London? The principle has been established with the Scotland Act. The matter was not concluded until the Scottish Parliament had spoken. Therefore, my first question to the Minister is, can he give us some kind of assurance that the Assembly will be able to give its view, and that that view will be taken into consideration and accepted by the Government? That is absolutely critical. My understanding is that the First Minister and the previous Presiding Officer were given assurances by the current Prime Minister that the change would not happen without the agreement of the Assembly. It is also worth noting that there is not one Cabinet Member from a Welsh constituency in this Government. It really does look like a throwback to the bad old days of governance of Wales from London.

My second question is one of timing. I recognise that there is need for a legal framework, but why now? Significant reviews are being undertaken at the moment. The first is, of course, the Silk review, which has two phases—the first looking at fiscal powers and the other at broader powers for the Assembly. Then there is the commission on the West Lothian question, which, again, may have a significant impact on the relationships between all these different institutions. And then there is the huge elephant in the room—the referendum in Scotland. We cannot ignore the fact that that will happen and that there will be an impact on devolution in the broader sense, whatever the outcome.

The Assembly has already been given a considerable increase in powers recently, but no increase in the number of Assembly Members. It may be that Silk will come up with a whole range of suggestions of what the Assembly could be doing in the future. If that is the case, there could be a case for increasing the number of Assembly Members. Now is therefore the wrong time to be making the proposed changes.

I should like to speak briefly about the substance of the document. It contains an assertion that the Government do not seek to give advantage to any political party—which is very good. However, is that reflected in the proposed model? What modelling has been done to suggest that no particular party will get an advantage for a change to the current system?

It is worth reflecting on the first Assembly election in 1999 when there were 40 first past the post seats, only one of which was won by a Conservative, and eight Conservative seats were won on a top-up regional list system. We are all au fait with the likely outcome, but what modelling has been done? What has been done so far in terms of looking at what the consequences might be? Who might be the winners and losers if the Government are so determined that no particular party will gain an advantage?

It is also worth noting that, if there is going to be an increase in the size of the Assembly—

[The Deputy Chairman of Committees]

My Lords, there is a Division in the House.