Lord Bradshaw

Our approach to the modelling and appraisal of journey time changes is intended to capture the behavioural choices of travellers, and the resulting impacts on the welfare of society.

There is evidence from everyday life of individuals making choices that suggest they value very small time savings. For instance, pedestrians may choose to cross rather than wait for traffic lights to change, while travellers may rush to catch an underground service, to save 1-2 minutes.

The most recent national study into passenger values of time (Arup et al, 2015), considered this issue, and we provided the rationale for capturing the full range of sizes of time saving as part of our 2016 consultation response on values of travel time.

Firstly, that appraisals are carried out ‘at the margin’ for an incremental scheme, and hence capturing time savings of any size and valuing them at a constant unit value provides a robust mathematical framework to aggregate impacts in a consistent fashion across appraisals.

Furthermore, to ensure a representative approach, we want to reflect the full spectrum of sizes of time saving attributable to different kinds of schemes and different modes. Our approach to the capturing of small time savings is consistent with appraisal frameworks in other countries, for example Sweden.

We intend to gather further evidence on the value of small increments of time savings as part of the next national value of time study, currently being planned.

The department currently requires its operators to plan services and rail timetables that are designed to meet expected passenger demand and provide value for money for the taxpayer. Typically, demand for services on Boxing Day is low and much of the network is closed to provide opportunity for essential maintenance. We expect operators and in future, GBR, to continue to consider the case for Boxing Day services where there is demand and they do not further increase the burden on taxpayers.

Transport models are capable of capturing almost any scale of changes in journey time, down to fractions of seconds. Typically, these are aggregated across travellers to provide a measure of the impact of the scheme.

In the Department’s Appraisal Summary Table, used to capture the key results in the appraisal, promoters are requested to provide a breakdown of the total monetary value of net journey time changes by the following increments:

• Changes of 0 to 2 minutes
• Changes of 2 to 5 minutes
• Changes of greater than 5 minutes.

Worcestershire Parkway was funded by Worcestershire County Council (WCC), it developed the business case with forecast usage, revenue and costs. The Government supported it through a commercial agreement for train services to use the station. The Government has not commissioned post opening evaluation, but WCC has undertaken studies that show the passenger usage and revenue has exceeded their forecast. Lord Bradshaw is advised to contact WCC for further information.

The Department for Transport’s (DfT’s) Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) uses evidence based on a range of valuation methods, including Stated Preference (SP) techniques.

The valuations of changes to passenger travel time in TAG are based on a large-scale set of SP surveys carried out in 2014/15, which surveyed 9,000 individuals and businesses to understand travel behaviour, and elicited values relating to travel time and reliability, as well as parameters relating to journey quality. Findings from this research were implemented in TAG in 2017, and are kept under review.

Further guidance on journey quality impacts for bus and active mode travel are underpinned by SP studies undertaken in 2009 and 1996/7 respectively, while evidence on the ‘option value’ of rail travel is drawn from a 2006 SP study.

Aspects of the evidence base in TAG on impacts to life and health, used in the appraisal of environmental and safety impacts, draw on several SP studies undertaken during the 1990s.

The DfT regularly reviews the evidence base underpinning TAG to ensure it remains a robust basis for investment decision-making. This includes commissioning new research using a variety of valuation methods. A notable recent example relates to the 2023 DfT and National Highways-commissioned study into road freight values of travel time, which utilised SP techniques.

The Government takes national security extremely seriously and continuously monitors, understands and mitigates potential security threats from a wide range of technologies. My officials are looking into the Norwegian reports and will feed any new information into our continuing work.

The widening of the south-western stretches of the M25 took place over twenty years ago, with the most recent scheme (M25 J12-15) completed in 2005. Any information available on schemes completed a long time ago will be held in the National Archives.

The latest evidence on the effect of the Elizabeth Line on housing growth and access to employment can be found in the 2024 and 2025 post-opening evaluation reports. Both reports can be found on the Transport for London website.

In summary, the evaluation evidence finds that the Elizabeth Line has had positive impact on both employment growth and housing growth, although the impacts have not been uniform across all areas. The evaluation finds that between 2015 and 2023, employment growth around Elizabeth line stations consistently outperformed the total London average (25% growth around Elizabeth line stations compared to 14% in London). The growth in jobs and connectivity has been accompanied by a surge in housebuilding. 71,000 new homes have been delivered around Elizabeth line stations since 2015. By 2024, the residential property stock around inner London Elizabeth line stations increased by 19% compared to 10% for all inner London.

No post-opening evaluation of Worcestershire Parkway Station has as yet been carried out. However, the measured impact on housing and access to employment of the station are assessed as:

• Housing: Strategic growth area planned for up to 10,000 homes and a new town centre; initial phase aims for 5,000 dwellings and 50 hectares of employment land by 2041.

• Employment: Mixed-use development includes logistics and office space; Midlands Rail Hub proposals could add 140 weekly services, expanding access to jobs in Birmingham, Cardiff, and beyond.

The forecast effects and latest measured effects of the Elizabeth Line are set out in two post-opening evaluation reports published in 2024 and 2025. Both reports can be found on the Transport for London website.

In summary, the evaluation evidence finds that the Elizabeth Line has had positive impact on both employment growth and housing growth, although the impacts have not been uniform across all areas. The evaluation finds that between 2015 and 2023, employment growth around Elizabeth line stations consistently outperformed the total London average (25% growth around Elizabeth line stations compared to 14% in London). The growth in jobs and connectivity has been accompanied by a surge in housebuilding. 71,000 new homes have been delivered around Elizabeth line stations since 2015. By 2024, the residential property stock around inner London Elizabeth line stations increased by 19% compared to 10% for all inner London.

The forecast effects of the opening of the Worcestershire Parkway Station were expected to be: (i) reducing road congestion and road vehicle carbon emissions by reducing road vehicle usage; (ii) address Worcestershire's poor accessibility to and from London arising from the limited frequency and length of journey time of North Cotswold Line services; (iii) transform access to the rail network for Worcestershire passengers; and (iv) tackle Worcestershire's exclusion from the Cross Country network (Bristol-Birmingham-North West/North East).

No post-opening evaluation of Worcestershire Parkway Station has as yet been carried out. However, latest measured impacts of the station are assessed as:

• Passenger numbers: Over 2 million journeys in five years, far exceeding forecasts.

• Carbon impact: Achieved carbon neutrality within five years; saves ~1.8 million kgCO₂e annually.

• Economic and transport role: Significant modal shift to rail, reducing congestion and supporting sustainable travel; demand strong enough to trigger plans for car park expansion and service enhancements.

In line with the Department for Transport’s Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) Unit A1.3, User and Provider Impacts, costs to existing transport users due to the construction of a road investment scheme are recorded in the appraisal. The impact of delays during construction and maintenance are estimated using the same transport models used to predict the overall traffic effects of the scheme. Bespoke software packages, as described in TAG, are used to value the delays to transport users using standard economic parameters.

The Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) table, produced for all road investment schemes, allows for the user delays during construction and maintenance to be recorded alongside the travel time benefits of the road investment scheme, to ensure that the economic appraisal accounts for both the benefits and disbenefits for users of the road investment scheme.

Transport appraisals informed by HM Treasury’s Green Book and DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG) take account of delays in the commissioning of road schemes via a few mechanisms.

As set out in the Transport Business Case Guidance, the established business case process is designed to be flexible, and responsive to evidence that emerges throughout the duration of the proposal’s development. This includes reflecting emerging evidence on project timelines in the analysis that informs the economic dimension.

TAG contains detailed guidance on setting an appropriate appraisal period, running from the scheme opening date. We intend to include plans to expand this guidance to make it more helpful for promoters assessing potential changes in opening dates, as part of our upcoming Appraisal, Modelling and Evaluation Strategy (AMES), to be published early next year.

Where scheme delivery is expected to take longer, TAG also contains advice on how to appraise impacts to existing transport users that occur during the construction of schemes.

Regarding accidents, TAG contains extensive guidance and tools to assist promoters in assessing the likely accident and safety impacts associated with a scheme. As with all TAG methods, these approaches are kept under review, and updated with robust evidence where appropriate.

DfT assesses the benefits and costs of transport interventions using our published Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), which is based on HMT’s Green Book Guidance. This covers a wide range of social, environmental and economic impacts of transport investment. We use transport models to understand how non-road interventions will interact with the existing network, and the pattern of passenger demand. This will reflect users changing their route or mode of travel to make use of the new project.

Our forecasts of travel demand, on which these appraisals are based, take account of the expected locations of housing and jobs in the future. For major schemes, we also model how land uses may change in response to the investment – for example, housing developments near new or improved railway stations. There is a significant body of evidence linking transport connectivity and jobs, which our appraisals take account of. Currently, this tends to be small component of appraised project benefits. We are undertaking research to improve how we predict and value transport’s impact on unemployment, which is likely to increase magnitude of these appraised benefits in deprived areas.

TAG recommends an appraisal period that is linked to the life of the infrastructure asset. This allows accounting for the foreseeable costs and benefits over that time horizon, where they are expected to occur. The appraisal period is usually for 60 years after scheme opening, which is used reasonably consistently in the sector. Allowances may be made for infrastructure that is expected to have longer-lasting benefits and costs after 60 years. TAG recommends that, in such cases, the analysis may cover up to a 100-year appraisal period from scheme opening as a sensitivity test. This is the recommended treatment, since large uncertainty is a feature of the very-long-term, and costs and benefits are heavily discounted in this period.

The approach recommended to assess benefits from road investment schemes is set out in DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), which is based on HMT’s Green Book Guidance. This sets out the best practice guidance on assessing and evaluating policies, programmes and projects. The guidance is regularly reviewed and updated to reflect new evidence.

How long benefits may last will be very much dependent on the nature of the scheme, the local area and the strategic objectives being sought. TAG recommends, therefore, that infrastructure schemes should do bespoke analysis using transport modelling. These models, such as the types described in TAG, allow benefits to be calculated based on various behavioural responses expected. For instance, where infrastructure improvements decrease the cost, time and inconvenience of using that infrastructure, transport users may decide to use that infrastructure, change their destinations or activities, or change their mode of travel.

TAG recommends an appraisal period that is linked to the life of the infrastructure asset. This allows accounting for the foreseeable costs and benefits over that time horizon, where they are expected to occur. The appraisal period is usually for 60 years after scheme opening, which is used reasonably consistently in the sector. Allowances may be made for infrastructure that is expected to have longer-lasting benefits and costs after 60 years. TAG recommends that, in such cases, the analysis may cover up to a 100-year appraisal period from scheme opening as a sensitivity test. This is the recommended treatment, since large uncertainty is a feature of the very-long-term, and costs and benefits are heavily discounted in this period.

The benefits of road travel, in particular transport user benefits, can indeed deteriorate for each road user as congestion reoccurs. TAG methods allow for this, utilising the modelling previously mentioned. The “counterfactual” position is important here. This is the state of transport conditions in the case where there is no investment. Benefits are counted across the entire transport network, including non-road travel. Even where the road in question may reach the levels of congestion seen today, benefits, albeit potentially weaker, are still expected to occur even over long-time horizons, when considering the operation of the whole network. For example, traffic may reroute from previous local bottlenecks, some decongestion on public transport services may occur, and so on. In the counterfactual, people would effectively see higher costs/time/inconvenience of reaching the destinations they desire, or indeed become ‘priced off’, the transport system providing them with lower access to opportunity. Again, local conditions are important in understanding the precise source of such benefits.

The Department for Transport provides funding to local transport authorities (LTAs) to support the delivery of their Bus Service Improvement Plans (BSIPs). Decisions on how this funding is used to improve services for passengers are for local authorities to make. The majority of projects delivered by LTAs using capital BSIP funding are used on bus infrastructure, such as bus priority schemes. The Department does not track the manufacturers of buses procured using BSIP funding.

The Government is committed to ensuring the UK remains a leader in bus manufacturing, and earlier this year launched the UK Bus Manufacturing Expert Panel. The Panel brings together industry experts and local leaders to achieve three key objectives of supporting growth in UK bus manufacturing, developing a pipeline of future bus orders and prioritising passenger-centric bus design.

Heathrow Airport has a wide range of surface access infrastructure, including rail services through Heathrow Express and Elizabeth Line trains, underground services on the Picadilly line, a wide network of bus and coach connections as well as being close to the M25 and M4 motorways. This network supported 83.9 million passengers to access the airport in 2024.

The most recent Heathrow Surface Access Strategy covers 2022 – 2026 and sets out how Heathrow Airport Limited (HAL) supports passengers, staff and freight to arrive at the airport, including the continued use of available infrastructure and sets out any new requirements. Any expansion proposals for Heathrow Airport are currently subject to the 2018 Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS), which sets out targets for increasing public transport mode share and reducing staff car journeys which the proposals will need to meet. These targets will be reviewed as part of any future ANPS review, and the department will engage with promoters of a third runway to ensure future surface access arrangements make effective use of capacity to the airport.

We expect Network Rail to undertake an assessment of the costs and benefits for all its schemes, including safety aspects.

It has been encouraging to see recently that the new Chief Inspector at ORR has not closed his mind to further extensions of third rail electrification.

The approach recommended to assess benefits from rail investment schemes is set out in the Transport Analysis Guidance (TAG), which is based on HMT’s Green Book Guidance. Together, they set out the best practice guidance on assessing and evaluating policies, programmes and projects. The guidance is regularly reviewed and updated to reflect new evidence.

The Department has been working closely with the scheme promoters of Midlands Connect proposals to ensure that the analysis of benefits is appropriate and proportionate for the state it is at.

The Government is committed to delivering a simpler, more accountable railway with clear responsibilities. The establishment of Great British Railways (GBR) will end years of fragmentation and will have a relentless focus on driving up standards for passengers.

GBR will have the independence and tools it needs to deliver improvements to rail services, and plan and run the railway on a long-term basis in the interest of its passenger and freight customers and taxpayers. The Railways Bill is due to go before Parliament in this parliamentary session and GBR is expected to be operational around 12 months after the Bill receives Royal Assent.

Prior to the establishment of GBR, train operating companies are responsible for the procurement, planning and setting of the timetable for rail replacement services and work with Network Rail to ensure that any rail replacement services are co-ordinated with any planned engineering work or other disruptions on the railway. We expect under GBR that operations will take maximum advantage of alternative routes where possible to minimise the use of rail replacement road transport.

The law permits the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency to provide information from its vehicle record where the requester can demonstrate reasonable cause to receive it. The fee payable by private sector organisations seeking the contact details of the registered keeper of a vehicle is £2.50 but if additional information is needed the fee is £5.00. The fee is set to recover the cost of providing the information and ensures that the cost is borne by the requester, not passed on to the taxpayer.

Officials and East Midlands Railway are having conversations regarding the restoration of train services between Lincoln and Newark Northgate. Reinstatement is dependent upon the implementation of the East Coast Main Line timetable recast and successful conclusion of the relevant industry and departmental processes.

The Department is not aware of any legal challenges or academic research regarding the Office of Road and Rail’s use of the 'not primarily abstractive' test when considering open access applications.

The Department requires its operators, including Southeastern, to match resources to passenger demand and carefully balance cost, capacity and performance in order to maximise value for money for the taxpayer.

Hitachi works closely with the train operators to deliver the required number of trains for service to Great Western Railway and London North-eastern Railway. Where Hitachi is responsible for any shortfall, contractual mechanisms are in place so that the operator only pays for the trains it receives each morning.

The Government does not currently hold data on the compensation that has been paid to passengers in the last two months, as data on the compensation paid by train operating companies is collected annually, at the end of each financial year.

As announced in the King’s Speech on 17 July 2024, the government will introduce a Buses Bill later this session. This will put the power over bus services in the hands of local leaders across England, ensuring networks meet the needs of the communities who rely on them. The Bill will increase powers available to local leaders to choose the model that works best in their area, whether that be franchising, high-quality partnerships with private operators or local authority ownership. The government will ensure that stakeholders, including the Traffic Commissioners, are properly engaged on the proposals during the Bill's development.

Schedule 4 and 8 payments are made by Network Rail and therefore always come from public funds.

Great Western Railway is expected to best match available capacity to available demand. Whilst nearly all inter-city services are operated using Intercity Express Trains, several services between London and Cardiff are operated using alternative 110mph capable rolling stock to retain traincrew route and traction knowledge. This retains the ability to use said alternative rolling stock during special events in Cardiff when passenger demand necessitates increased capacity which cannot be accommodated using only Intercity Express Trains.

The Government will expect Great British Railways when it is operating to deliver the best outcomes for the taxpayer. This will include formulating a long term plan for railway rolling stock, giving greater certainty over long term life, monitoring the leasing market and financing options on a continuing basis, as well as learning lessons from international comparators where relevant. It is expected that this will enable a better market and a reduction in costs to the public purse.

Delivering reliable and affordable public transport services for passengers is one of the Government’s top priorities and we know how important this is for passengers and for local growth. The Government is urgently considering the most effective and affordable ways to deliver on these objectives.

As part of preparing for the introduction of the Railways Bill, the Department will review the powers and duties of the Office of Rail and Road that relate to rail. We expect ORR's role in safety regulation and in monitoring National Highways to continue.

The Department for Transport is committed to working at pace with bus operators, local transport authorities and passengers to deliver on the government’s plan for better bus services. For local areas who choose to franchise their bus services, operators will have the opportunity to bid for contracts to run services. The assessment of those bids to determine which local bus operators can best deliver the contracts will be for the franchising authority to conduct. Local transport authorities operating enhanced partnerships rather than franchising to deliver their bus services will continue to work collaboratively with their operators to ensure that standards are improved and maintained as required.