(9 years, 6 months ago)
Commons ChamberUrgent Questions are proposed each morning by backbench MPs, and up to two may be selected each day by the Speaker. Chosen Urgent Questions are announced 30 minutes before Parliament sits each day.
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I am looking forward to discussing this with the new American Secretary of Defence, Ash Carter, whose appointment I hope the whole House will welcome. I say to my hon. Friend that we cannot simply leave the defence of our continent to the Americans. They are involved in the joint commission with Ukraine, alongside Canada and ourselves, but it is also important for NATO to have the resolve to defend its own borders. That is why I hope that my hon. Friend welcomes the commitments made at the NATO summit, which we now need to follow through.
I should like to ask the Secretary of State for Defence how far the Government have really thought this thing through. Does he acknowledge that 75 trainers will be followed by 150 trainers, and that they will be followed by more and more? The gifting of weapons is being talked about, and we are now moving into a situation in which we are going to be in the conflict in Ukraine. NATO wants Ukraine as a member, contrary to everything that was agreed following the break-up of the Soviet Union on the non-alignment and independence of that country. Instead of upping the military ante, why will not the Government put huge efforts into trying to demilitarise Russian militarism and NATO expansionism, in order to bring about a longer-term sustainable peace in that area? The danger of getting involved in a hot war in central Europe has got a bit closer as a result of the Secretary of State’s statement today.
I do not agree with the hon. Gentleman. We are not supplying weapons and we are not attempting to escalate the conflict in any way. As I have said, we believe that in the end the answer has to be diplomatic and political, and the pressure therefore continues to be applied, through sanctions and so on. He invites us to help to demilitarise eastern Ukraine, but I think he ought to ask himself who has militarised the area and who has supplied weapons, tanks and heavy artillery across the border. It is now up to President Putin to withdraw his heavy weaponry, as was agreed at Minsk, and to implement the agreement that he has signed up to.
(9 years, 6 months ago)
Westminster HallWestminster Hall is an alternative Chamber for MPs to hold debates, named after the adjoining Westminster Hall.
Each debate is chaired by an MP from the Panel of Chairs, rather than the Speaker or Deputy Speaker. A Government Minister will give the final speech, and no votes may be called on the debate topic.
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It is a great pleasure to serve under your chairmanship, Mr Pritchard, and to see an interesting cross-section of colleagues present at what I hope will be a good debate about the lessons from the war in Afghanistan.
Over the past week I have had to put up with a number of colleagues rather facetiously asking, “Lessons from which Afghan war?”—with the assumption that my right hon. Friend the Member for Louth and Horncastle (Sir Peter Tapsell) might come along and talk about the first Afghan war and his own personal experiences. However, there is a serious element to this, because of course we, the British, were directly involved, more or less on our own, in three wars in Afghanistan—the 1839-42 war, the 1878-81 war, and in 1919—and then as part of a wider coalition from 2003 to 2014. That is part of the background for the Afghan people and what they think about the British—even if that is thoughts in the most benign way.
The second point to make is that I do not have military experience. I was a soldier manqué and taught military history at Sandhurst and the Army staff college, as well as for the Royal Air Force and the Royal Navy—a few of my former students who slept through my lectures are sitting here in the Chamber. My point, however, is that we tend to forget—perhaps not colleagues in the Chamber now, but often journalists and many times the public—that if we decide to initiate military action, two things are consequences. First, no military plan normally conforms to immediate contact with the enemy, so it is usually incredibly difficult to see how military action will develop. Secondly, such action will inevitably result in casualties.
We know that, for example, in both Iraq and Afghanistan the British suffered heavy casualties—not as many as the Americans or, indeed, as the Iraqis and the Afghan people. For example, in Iraq between 2003 and 2009, we lost 179 people, with several hundred wounded. In Afghanistan, between 2003—or, if we count Helmand, 2006—to the end of last year, 453 were killed and about 2,000 wounded. Without degrading that loss, that is probably about two days’ casualties suffered by the British Commonwealth armies in the 1944 Normandy campaign. The difference, of course, is that in 1944 it was total war—a war for national existence—so the public, while not welcoming the casualties, were more than prepared to tolerate them. With Iraq and Afghanistan, however, a sizeable proportion of British public opinion never supported either intervention.
Why do I wish to debate the lessons from the war in Afghanistan? I think that to do so is crucial. In a debate we had the other week on the Chilcot inquiry, I said that we are in fact talking about a two-act play. Iraq is the first act and overlapping with it is Afghanistan. In many respects, Afghanistan is as important, if not more so. The Chilcot inquiry is looking into the reasons why we went to war in Iraq and the lessons to be learned. That inquiry will tell us certain things, but Afghanistan is a black hole into which, as far as I can see, the Ministry of Defence, other Departments and the Cabinet Office are not as yet prepared to look for strategic lessons that should be learned.
A vast amount of evidence, ironically, is in the public domain. We have the evidence of many witnesses at the Chilcot inquiry who touched on the war in Afghanistan—the military, the intelligence and the politicians overlap. We also have a whole series of memoirs of one kind or another. The great lacuna is of course the memoirs of politicians and Ministers. Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, spent a considerable amount of time in his memoir on Iraq, but only about a dozen pages on Afghanistan. Perhaps for obvious reasons, we do not have any memoirs of former Foreign or Defence Ministers—perhaps constrained by the Chilcot inquiry—but we have the memoirs of the military, mainly the Army, ranking from non-commissioned officers, through middle-ranking officers to a whole series of senior officers and generals, some of which have said more about their personal ambitions and their desire to get retaliation in first, rather than giving us an overview and an insight into what went on.
I want not only to get down into the weeds, looking at the lessons from the war in Afghanistan, but to address some fundamental points that are crucial to understanding the war and to our foreign policy and security posture.
I congratulate the hon. Gentleman on securing the debate. The good news is that I will not be present for all of it, because I have a union group to attend—which I am sure he would like to be at too. I understand the hon. Gentleman’s point of history and I am fascinated by his historical references, which are important, but does he not also think that there is another narrative: the stories of the ordinary people of Afghanistan who have been through the war, are still going through it and are still living in poverty? Sadly, tens of thousands of them are ending up as refugees well away from Afghanistan. Is that not a failure of the whole operation?
The hon. Gentleman makes a valid point. That is the law of unintended consequences. I do not think that we, the Americans or our allies wanted things to turn out in that way in either Iraq or Afghanistan, but he is correct: that story is continuing and should concern all of us.
Were the policy and strategy outlined by the British Government at the time correct? Were they well thought through? Was the intervention considered calmly and rationally, taking into account the best advice of Whitehall, the Departments—the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence and the Department for International Development —and the intelligence services?
(9 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberI apologise to the House for not being here at the start of the debate. As I explained to you in a letter, Mr Speaker, I was attending the funeral of a friend of mine, Mike Marqusee, a great writer who passed away last week. He had an enormous funeral this afternoon. My hon. Friend the Member for Hayes and Harlington (John McDonnell) was there, too. When I informed the massive audience that we were leaving to come to vote against Trident, they burst into rapturous applause.
Mike Marqusee wrote a great deal and thought a great deal. He started by opposing the Vietnam war and spent his life campaigning for peace and a nuclear-free world. During the funeral we received a message from another good friend of mine, Achin Vanaik, who is an anti-nuclear campaigner in India. He does not want India to have nuclear weapons or to be a nuclear power, and he does not want Britain to be a nuclear power. He wants to see a nuclear-free world. He is not alone. There are millions around the world who do not see nuclear weapons as their peace and their security. They see such weapons, first, as an enormous expenditure and, secondly, as an enormous threat to this world.
I attended the Vienna conference on the humanitarian effects of nuclear weapons, along with other colleagues from the House. I was very pleased that, at the last moment, the British Government decided to attend, as did the United States Government. That was a good step forward, because they had not attended previous conferences in Oslo and Mexico. I hope that all the delegates took in the reality of what a nuclear explosion is. When Members talk glibly about the deterrent or the threat—the possibility of deterring people through the use of nuclear weapons—they should pause and think for a moment. If someone says that they have a deterrent and it is a threat, they must be prepared to use it. If anyone anywhere in the world uses a nuclear weapon of any size, millions die and there is an environmental catastrophe, a global recession, a food shortage and a nuclear winter. It would mean the destruction of an awful lot of things that we hold very dear. We talk glibly about the security that these weapons give us, but that security is one of destroying everything that we hold dear. Perhaps we should be a little less glib and a little more sanguine about the real humanitarian effects of nuclear weapons.
Next month, the Government will host a meeting of the P5, the permanent members of the UN Security Council that also happen to be the five declared nuclear weapons states, but please let no one tell me that if a country gives up nuclear weapons it can no longer be a permanent member of the Security Council, because that is simply not the case. Presumably, the meeting was designed to work out the line to take ahead of the five-yearly review conference on nuclear weapons, which will take place in New York in May.
The non-proliferation treaty was the product of good work by the Wilson Labour Government, and others, in 1970, and contains two key demands. The first is that the five declared nuclear weapons states—Britain, France, China, Russia and the USA—take steps towards disarmament. The second is that all other signatories agreed not to develop nuclear weapons, and the declared nuclear weapons states agreed not to export nuclear technology. Is the development of a new submarine and nuclear weapons systems by Britain part of taking steps towards disarmament? Or is it the very opposite—taking steps towards re-armament? Perhaps we could have more credibility by going to the P5 meeting in February with a proposal for the non-replacement of Trident and the start of a process of disarmament by all five P5 members. We could report back to the conference in May.
We have been discussing morality and credibility. At the conference on the humanitarian effects of war, the British representative, the ambassador to Vienna, delivered a speech on behalf of the Foreign Office in which he outlined the British Government’s case for nuclear weapons, which was that they believe them to bring security—we have heard many of the same arguments today. It was met with silence, sadness, disappointment and incredulity, particularly after we had heard from people who had witnessed nuclear explosions and seen their effects.
That speech was followed by one from the representative of the South African Government, who explained how South Africa had nuclear technology but had specifically given it up in order to make the continent of Africa a nuclear weapons-free zone. How did the conference receive that speech? There was amazing sympathy, support and optimism. We offered pessimism, threats and insecurity; the South Africans offered hope and some kind of justice around the world. I hope that the House will understand that many of us will never give up on the idea that we can and will live in a nuclear-free world, and that our existence as a country does not depend on being able to destroy the rest of the planet.
When 2016 comes, we will presumably be invited to vote on the replacement of the Trident nuclear missile system and expenditure on it of about £100 billion over the next 25 years. That is an utterly incredible sum of money. I obviously hope that we do not undertake the renewal, and that if we do we never use the weapons. An enormous amount of resources is taken up in creating a weapon of mass destruction when we could be setting our engineering industry, which is highly skilled, highly motivated and able to produce many things, to producing things of social and economic good rather than the drain involved in the cost of nuclear weapons. That, in turn, would help our economic development, whereas the development of nuclear weapons will not.
To those who say that it is all for our security and that our security is enhanced by nuclear weapons, let me say this. If we follow that argument, any country in the world can say, “We need nuclear weapons.” Iceland could say it wants them; Paraguay could say it wants them; Japan could say it must have nuclear weapons—the list goes on, the countries get bigger and the possibilities become more dangerous.
The last review conference reiterated the previous decision that there should be a middle east weapons of mass destruction-free zone conference that would be hosted by the Finnish Government. It did not happen, and because it did not happen, Egypt walked out. Others in the Arab League and in the region warned that if this conference did not take place, there would be a danger to the whole non-proliferation treaty process. I hope that the Government are aware of that danger. Every single country at the last review conference agreed that the conference I mentioned for the middle east should take place, and I hope that it will. It would provide a way of getting Israel and Iran around the same table. We got together on chemical weapons and a load of other things, so we should get together on that. Otherwise, there will be a danger of a nuclear arms race developing across that region, with obvious dangers to the rest of the world.
Others wish to speak, so let me conclude with these thoughts. We were elected to this place to try to improve people’s lives; we were elected to represent our constituents and to ensure that they have homes, jobs, schools, hospitals and security. A secure world is not created by an arms race, and it is not created by creating more and more threats. A secure world is created by looking at the issues that divide the world—the racism that divides the world; the poverty that divides the world; the environmental destruction that divides the world. Can we not look in a different direction and deliver a different foreign policy, rather than hold to the arid idea that all we need to do is to spend phenomenal sums of money in order to threaten to destroy the whole planet?
(9 years, 7 months ago)
Commons ChamberWe are still firmly committed to April 2019 as the target date. As I have mentioned, recruiting has increased substantially. If we look at the latest quarter as opposed to the latest six months, we see that it has roughly doubled. Over the past six months it is up 62%, but over the second half of that period it has gone up even faster, and we expect a further continuation of that positive trend. We are firmly committed to April 2019.
4. If he will publish research held by the Government on the global atmospheric consequences of nuclear war.
Classified studies conducted by the Ministry of Defence focus on the effects of UK nuclear weapons and the potential impact, including on critical national infrastructure, of a nuclear attack on the United Kingdom.
Under the 30-year rule, Cabinet papers for 1984 have now been published. They show that the Government at that time refused to undertake any study of the atmospheric effects of a nuclear weapon explosion or nuclear testing. As I understand it, no other study has been undertaken since then. At the conference on the humanitarian effects of nuclear weapons in Vienna, there were some disturbing—no, frightening—reports of what would happen to the world’s climate if any nuclear explosion took place anywhere. Does the Minister not think it is incumbent on the Government to tell the British people exactly what the consequences of a nuclear explosion are, not just for them but for the whole planet?
I think the hon. Gentleman is referring to some declassified Home Office documents, which as Minister of State at the Ministry of Defence I confess I have not read. I believe that nuclear deterrence contributes materially to our national security. If the hon. Gentleman wants to read a really good study on nuclear deterrence, I recommend “On Nuclear Deterrence: The Correspondence of Sir Michael Quinlan”, published by the Royal United Services Institute in 2011. It is a ripping good read about how to keep a country safe and free.
As my hon. Friend knows, BAE systems is pursuing a number of significant export prospects for the Hawk, with active support from the Ministry of Defence and UK Trade and Investment Defence and Security Organisation. As international air forces modernise their front-line aircraft, we anticipate that there will be significant further interest in the next generation of Hawk aircraft, the Hawk T2, which is already in service to train our Typhoon pilots and will do so for the F-35 pilots in due course.
Next month, the Government will be hosting a meeting of the five declared nuclear weapons states ahead of the non-proliferation treaty review in May. Will the Minister tell the House what he intends to achieve from that meeting, whether there will be an agreed position put and whether the P5 will adhere to the basic principles of the non-proliferation treaty and take steps towards nuclear disarmament?
As the hon. Gentleman knows, we take the nuclear non-proliferation treaty extremely seriously. We uphold that treaty and it is vital that we persuade other nations around the world that may be in breach of that treaty to abide by its conventions as well. The hon. Gentleman and I take a different view on these matters. I spent many years at university debating against the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, and I still seem to be doing it now.
(9 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberUrgent Questions are proposed each morning by backbench MPs, and up to two may be selected each day by the Speaker. Chosen Urgent Questions are announced 30 minutes before Parliament sits each day.
Each Urgent Question requires a Government Minister to give a response on the debate topic.
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The tactics of ISIL vary and there is some evidence that it is already altering its tactics in the face of air strikes. The overall strategy has to be led and endorsed by the Government of Iraq. It is very important that, in the end, the campaign is led by the home-grown army of Iraqi and Kurdish forces, with the support of the international coalition. The strategy has to be formulated there rather than here, but we can offer specialist expertise.
In 2003, there was massive opposition to Britain going into Iraq. Those concerns are still there, yet we have now heard that more British troops are going back into Iraq and that a British base is being built in Bahrain. Is the Secretary of State not presiding over an expansion and an extension of British military activity in the whole region? Is he really sure where all this will lead, what the cost will be, and what the casualties will be?
What I am sure of, first of all, is that ISIL presents a clear and present danger to us in the United Kingdom. There have been acts of violent extremism on the streets of our capital and elsewhere. This is a very direct threat and there are Britons, sadly, who have gone to fight for the jihadists. There is a direct British interest in ensuring that ISIL is not allowed to capture further territory in Iraq and is thrown back out of it. That is why we are supporting the legitimate Government of Iraq, and why we are acting at their request in considering what further training and support we are able to offer. So far as the base in Bahrain is concerned, we have ships and aircraft permanently present in the Gulf. Having a permanent base there will make deployment much easier.
(9 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberI note what my hon. Friend says about Marchwood, of which he has been a great champion. He does not need me to confirm the important role that it has played in the recovery of so much equipment, matériel and vehicles from Afghanistan. I can certainly confirm that we will have a continuing use for that kind of facility.
I also note what my hon. Friend says about the doctrine. We are seeing al-Qaeda in different forms in some countries, and we are seeing it mutate into ISIL. He makes the important point that the western nations are simply unable to reconstruct whole countries time and again.
I pay tribute, as everyone else does and should, to the sacrifice and the loss of service people in Afghanistan. May I ask the Secretary of State to be slightly more objective about the situation that the Afghan people are now facing? The levels of poverty are very serious, and large numbers of Afghan people are seeking refuge in other places because they feel that they can no longer live safely there. He indicated in answer to an earlier question that the new Afghan Government were going to undertake some kind of talks with the Taliban. One obviously hopes that that will bring about long-term peace and stability for the country, and that it will result in the recognition of the rights and role of women in society there. Does he not think, given the fact that British troops and many others have been there for 13 years, that the levels of poverty, drug production and corruption are very serious? Should we not be a bit more objective about what has happened, rather than being triumphalist about it?
I hope the House will agree that I have not been triumphalist about the campaign. I believe the campaign we fought, for which so many sacrificed their lives, was certainly worth while, but I am not triumphalist about it in the least. Afghanistan remains a relatively poor country and a place in which there is still great danger, as we have learned from this morning’s events. I hope the hon. Gentleman would acknowledge that Afghanistan is a more prosperous and safer place than it was 12 or 13 years ago, and that women have a better prospect now of fuller participation in civic life than they did 10 or 13 years ago. I have noted that the drugs trade remains an increasing and enduring challenge to the current Afghan Government, and, indeed, to the international community. He is right to say that we should not be triumphalist about this campaign, but, equally, he should recognise some of the progress that has been made.
(10 years, 8 months ago)
Commons ChamberWe have been clear that there are some areas where we need to protect UK sovereign capabilities for reasons of strategic advantage or in order to protect strategically important industrial capabilities. In all other areas we will look to procure in the way that is most effective for delivering defence.
The Secretary of State will be pleased to know that I have looked at “The United Kingdom’s Future Nuclear Deterrent” report, which he has just placed before the House. Page 5 gives me great concern, however, because it seems to assert that the programme is on track and on budget, and then goes on to predict savings thereafter. Those two things seem to me possibly to be in conflict. Will he assure me that there is no commitment to spending money beyond this Parliament in 2016, in relation to making the main-gate decision, when the new Parliament will have the right to decide the future of the whole programme?
Yes. Some £3 billion has been earmarked for spending before the next election, and the expectation is that that will have been committed, but that is the total commitment that will have been made at that time. That includes money that will not be disbursed until some time during the next Parliament, but which will have been committed.
(10 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberI suspect that that is a matter for Mr Speaker rather than for me, but I suspect that Mr Speaker will have noted the contribution of the hon. Gentleman. I know that the House itself is working hard to determine what it will do to mark the centenary of the great war and no doubt the hon. Gentleman will be able to reinforce his point with the appropriate authority.
I was pleased to hear the Minister say that the Government will not dictate how we should commemorate the tragedy of the first world war. I hope that, in the promotion of serious discussion on the subject, he will recall the soldiers who died in all theatres of conflict, be they German, Russian, French or British. I also hope that he will recall the significant degree of opposition to the war on both sides, in Germany and in Britain. That, too, is part of our shared history and should be commemorated and discussed.
It is rare for me to agree with the hon. Gentleman, but I agree with him on that point. I note that the Heritage Lottery Fund, which has been at the centre of all this through providing a great deal of the underpinning finance, has recognised that and been making grants accordingly. I hope that the hon. Gentleman approves of that.
This Sunday, like many colleagues, I shall be at my borough’s annual presentation of wreaths at the war memorial. Our memorial is a circle on Islington green. It was designed to show how people can come together after conflict, not in a spirit of victory but through a desire for no more war to take place. Later that day, we will lay wreaths at the site of the casualty department of the former Royal Northern hospital. To commemorate the thousands of local people who lost their lives in world war one, there was a public collection that resulted in the building of an accident and emergency department there, on the basis of a need for something tangible that people could live from, rather than die from. It is a very appropriate memorial.
When we look at the war memorials—and when we remember the Pals regiments that colleagues have mentioned—we see dozens of names from the same family. We see how one generation was completely wiped out, with many brothers dying alongside each other. I recall looking at a huge war memorial in Sospel in southern France. It commemorated the people of that town, and it was clear that many members of the same families had died in the Franco-Prussian war, the first world war and the second world war. That series of wars wiped out generations.
As a child growing up in a small village in Wiltshire, I recall talking to old men who breathed with enormous difficulty. They told me that they had suffered “the gas” in the first world war. We have to remember those who suffered and those who died. We remember them with poetry and with hope. Many brilliant poems have been written about the first world war, as well as brilliant pieces of music such as Ralph Vaughan Williams’s “The Lark Ascending”, which he dreamed up in the trenches. In the lull between the fighting, he could see the larks above the fields; their song was drowned out as the guns started up again. Nigel Kennedy played it brilliantly at the last night of the Proms earlier this year.
In commemorating all those who died, we must remember that there were also many who opposed the war, as my hon. Friend the Member for Caerphilly (Wayne David) pointed out. There were massive anti-war meetings in Finsbury Park in my constituency well into the first world war. The international women’s conference against the war and in favour of peace took place in The Hague in 1915. It obviously did not stop the war, but it did influence President Woodrow Wilson and the 14 points that he later produced.
The first world war was a culmination of the rivalry between nations and empires; it was a commercial war in many ways. It was envisaged in J. A. Hobson’s brilliant work on imperialism in 1902, in which he predicted that there would be a war between the European nations because the tension and the arms expenditure were so great. There are serious lessons to be learned from that.
The map of the middle east was drawn as a result of the first world war. The Sykes-Picot agreement, which was revealed during the war, after the Russian revolution, showed the intention of Britain and France to carve up the middle east for themselves. The League of Nations was unsuccessful, but it represented an attempt at the end of the first world war to work out an international order that would prevent the same level of carnage from befalling another generation. In many ways, the League of Nations was doomed before it even started, because of the behaviour of the powers at the negotiations that resulted in the treaty of Versailles. Instead of bringing about a peace, those powers sought to impose a victors’ justice so, for example, the people of New Guinea stopped being subjects of the German empire and became a mandated people under the power of Australia, while the people of the middle east came to live under mandated territories of Britain and France. Many of the problems that the world saw later arose from the first world war.
During the years of discussion about the war, let us try to ensure that, in memory of them, we talk about those who opposed it and those who died in it. Above all, we should bring up our children to try to look for a world of peace—a world where we can settle grievances and differences, rather than feeding an arms race all around the world that can lead only to another war, such as the tragedies of the Congo, Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. Let us try to look to a world of peace and hope, not another war.
(10 years, 9 months ago)
Commons ChamberI am grateful to my hon. Friend. The Under-Secretary of State, my hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Anna Soubry), reminds me that 372 local authorities have signed up, and that is well over 80%. We anticipate that there will be a surge of further authorities signing in the run-up to the act of remembrance on 11 November. However, once that milestone is out of the way, I will be more than happy to answer a question listing the authorities that have not signed up, should any Member feel minded to ask me such a question.
T2. Will the Secretary of State tell the House how much money has so far been spent on preparations for the replacement of the Trident submarine system and, of course, the missile warheads that go with it, and what representations he has received within the higher echelons of the military not to go ahead with the replacement of Trident but to spend the money on something else?
As I have told the hon. Gentleman before, the figure is approximately £3 billion of commitments so far on design and early lead items. I am racking my brains, and I think I can say to him that since I have been in this post, which is just over two years, I have received no representation against the renewal of Trident from any senior officer in the armed forces.
(10 years, 11 months ago)
Commons ChamberThe Government’s position is that we will maintain continuous-at-sea deterrence, and to do that we are preparing to go ahead at the main-gate decision in 2016 with the delivery of replacement submarines. I fear I would be straying beyond my remit if I were to speculate on negotiations that may or may not take place after the next election.
What is the Secretary of State’s latest estimate of the cost of replacing both the warheads and the submarine system, ahead of the main-gate decision in 2016? Has he given further consideration to the possibility of us not renewing Trident in order to help bring about a nuclear-free world more rapidly rather than re-arming ourselves and thus delaying the possibility of a nuclear-free world?
On the last point, I think that history teaches us that unilateral abandonment of nuclear weapons is not the way to bring about a more rapid elimination of those weapons, much as we would all like to see that happen. I can tell the hon. Gentleman that the estimates produced in the 2006 White Paper for the cost of replacing the existing submarines with a four-boat solution were between £15 billion and £20 billion—in terms of the 2006 economic conditions—and they remain unchanged.