Public Service Pensions
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(13 years, 1 month ago)
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Danny Alexander
Of course I recognise that we must win that battle for hearts and minds. That is why I am providing so much information today, and urging public sector workers to look at the Government’s deal directly rather than necessarily relying on the information that they receive from their trade unions.
I do not think it right to suggest that the current teachers’ pension scheme is fair and sustainable. Let us consider the relevant contribution rates. When the scheme was introduced many decades ago, employer and employee each contributed 5%. Now the employer contributes 16%, while the employee contributes about 6%. There has been a big change in the affordability of the scheme, and so far all the cost has fallen on the taxpayer.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
Does my right hon. Friend agree that the public sector should examine very carefully the generous revised terms that he has announced before considering strike action? Such action would merely serve to hurt millions in the private sector who pay their taxes in order to produce public sector pensions that they themselves can only dream of.
Danny Alexander
I do indeed hope that the trade unions will examine the proposals carefully. I was encouraged when they said that they would at our meeting this morning. Of course trade unions need to take time to understand the impact of the changes, but I hope that on reflection they will accept that the new offer constitutes a generous enhancement from the Government, and a fair and reasonable basis on which to reach agreement in the scheme-by-scheme talks that will take place during the next couple of months.
Global Economy
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(13 years, 4 months ago)
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Mr Osborne
Of course we need to fill vacant properties, but we also need to allow new development. I think that we all want to protect areas of outstanding natural beauty in our country, and I have a constituency in the green belt, but planning decisions in this country are so lengthy, so bureaucratic and so costly that almost every study of the British economy that has been commissioned in the last decade has identified planning as an obstacle to further economic development. I think that we need to simplify those planning controls so that we can—yes—protect the countryside, but also secure decisions in reasonable time that allow development to take place. That is why we have introduced the presumption of sustainable development into the planning system.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
What further help can the Chancellor give small businesses, 4.5 million of which employ fewer than five people? If a quarter of them employed an extra person, that would make a huge dent in the unemployment register.
Mr Osborne
Small businesses are, of course, the engine of job creation in our country. As I have said, 500,000 new jobs have been created in the private sector over the last year. That is the second highest rate of job creation in the G7. As for specific help for small businesses, we avoided the increase in small business taxation that the Labour party included in its last Budget.
Finance (No. 3) Bill
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(13 years, 7 months ago)
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Mike Gapes
Obviously I am not as accomplished as my hon. Friend at making contact with the criminal elements in London. However, he has raised a serious matter: there are criminal elements who exploit differentials in duty. We have seen that in Northern Ireland, when terrorist organisations financed their activities by smuggling fuel across the border from the south to the north and vice versa, and we have seen it in other contexts.
If we are to have a policy on fuel taxation, we need to ensure that if we introduce measures that discriminate in favour of certain people in remote rural communities, we do not also create loopholes that will be used in a discriminatory way to undermine the sense of justice and fairness that our people want us to exercise. If we have high levels of fuel taxation in this country, which we do, and if that causes problems for our road haulage industry and discrimination between rural and urban areas, when the review is conducted—I hope that the Government will support the amendment, because it is vital that we look at these issues in—
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
On a point of order, Mr Hoyle. The amendment is very narrowly drawn. I have listened to the debate very carefully. Can you tell the Committee whether it is in order to discuss the matters that have been raised in it, ranging from the abolition of child benefit to the widening of the A1 and, now, the abuse of red diesel?
The Chairman
The Chair will decide that. I find it strange that the hon. Gentleman, who is a very senior Member of the House, is questioning the judgment of the Chair.
The Chairman
Order. I think we are now beginning to stray a little from the subject under discussion. I am sure we will return to the topic of the fuel levy.
The Chairman
I do not think we really need to hear from the hon. Gentleman at this stage.
Autumn Forecast
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(14 years ago)
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Mr Osborne
I think that is one that was prepared earlier. UK growth is forecast to be higher than that of Germany, France, many other European countries or the United States of America. It is also the case that the OBR is forecasting the creation of a million jobs. When it comes to the sovereign loan to Ireland, that is of a totally different nature from industrial support. It will be set out in the terms that I bring before the House of Commons. It is £3.25 billion, rather than the number that the hon. Gentleman gave.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
My right hon. Friend has today reinforced the need for exports to help our recovery. What can he personally do to help reverse the situation whereby we export more to southern Ireland than we do to all the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India and China—put together?
Mr Osborne
Since the Government were created there has been an absolute focus in foreign policy and trade policy on trying to increase our exports to those BRIC countries. The Prime Minister led major trade missions to India and China, the Business Secretary was very recently in Russia and I think that a trip is being proposed for Brazil, so we are seeking to expand our exports to the BRIC countries and, indeed, to some other important emerging economies such as Indonesia, Turkey and so on. We do not want to export less to southern Ireland or to anyone else in the advanced world; we just want to increase our exports to emerging economies.
Independent Financial Advisers (Regulation)
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(14 years ago)
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Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
I will speak very briefly. I will chuck away my notes, and see if I can do better than six minutes. I am delighted to be able to speak in the debate. I was urged to do so by two constituents in particular—Roger Clark, who is listening to the debate not far away, and Mr William Dixon—but others have written to me as well.
The number of IFAs has fallen from 32,000 to 29,000 in the last two years. When Hector Sants, the excellent and much revered and admired chairman of the FSA, appeared before the Treasury Committee last week, he estimated that between 10 and 20% of IFAs would go out of business as a result of the RDR provisions. I ask Mr Sants this: who are we—who is he—to put 5,800 companies out of business with a stroke of the pen, and what is the problem that needs fixing?
Many Members have quoted the figures this evening. complaints about IFAs to the financial ombudsman’s office: 2%, of which 39% are upheld. Complaints about the banks: 61%, of which 50% are upheld. No doubt my hon. Friend the Minister will say that that is because the banks offer a wider range of services. Of course they do, but I do not think that that explains such a large disparity.
I want to make three points. The first relates to the qualifications and credit framework level 4 qualifications. I am a qualified chartered surveyor, but I cannot think of a single professional body whose members would have to obtain a retraining qualification halfway through their careers. My hon. Friend and neighbour the Member for West Worcestershire (Harriett Baldwin) mentioned nurses, and other hon. Friends have mentioned publicans. None of those have to retrain.
Let me say one or two things about these exams. I agree with others that there should be grandfather rights, and I think that the implementation should be put off for five years. As we all know from the home information pack debacle, it takes time to implement exam regimes of this kind. I think that 31 December 2012 is too soon. I also think that it would be perfectly reasonable to ask new entrants to the IFA profession to undergo the exams, but to give grandfather rights to existing practitioners, many of whom have had many years’ experience.
I understand that two kinds of qualification will be granted under the new regime: a restricted qualification and an independent qualification. Someone will go to an IFA who will say, “I can advise on mortgages but I cannot advise on pensions, because I have only a restricted qualification.” I think that that is thoroughly unsatisfactory.
The second issue I want to talk about briefly is commission-based product withdrawal and the accusations that it can lead to practitioner bias or product bias. The Financial Services Authority asked Charles River Associates to undertake a survey into the matter, and he concluded that
“there was no evidence that moving to”
a fee-based model
“to the exclusion of a commission would lead to benefits since consumers choosing to pay on a fee basis do not receive better advice than those opting for a commission basis.”
I also agree with those who said it will favour the wealthy in society and put the poor at a disadvantage, because the poor cannot afford to pay this fee up front, while the idea of phasing it in over a number of weeks or months would be unfair to IFAs. That proposal is therefore not very sensible either.
The third issue I want to raise is the cost of compliance. Two years ago the cost was estimated to be £680 million; last year it was estimated to be £1.4 billion; today it is estimated to be a staggering £1.7 billion. That is £6,000 for every practitioner. For a sole trader or a small business, that is a huge amount of money, while for large IFAs with a number of partners it does not matter quite so much. I therefore urge my hon. Friend the Financial Secretary to consider very carefully what has been said today. I cannot remember a debate during my entire 18 years in Parliament where there has been such consensus of interest and so many Members have attended when they do not have to be in the Chamber as there is not a three-line Whip.
I urge my hon. Friend to listen to what has been said tonight, and I urge the FSA to think again, and to ask itself what the problem is that needs fixing. These are all small businessmen and small traders; they are precisely the people we were saying throughout the election campaign that we wanted to help, yet these proposals of ours are likely to put large numbers of them out of business.
Finally, I want to refer to the point made by my hon. Friend the Member for Aberconwy (Guto Bebb). I represent a rural area, and I know that banks have closed many of their branches in the high streets of my small market towns. If the IFAs are driven out as well, a lot of my poorer constituents will be left without any form of independent financial advice at all, at a time when the banks, if they are there at all, are offering a reduced service.
My hon. Friend the Financial Secretary is a reasonable man, and I ask him, please, to listen carefully to what has been said tonight. We need to have a rethink on this matter.
Equitable Life (Payments) Bill
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(14 years, 3 months ago)
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Mr Hoban
Indeed, and we have tried to bring to this matter a time scale and a sense of purpose and pace in resolving it. Of course, had it been resolved earlier, the compensation bill would have been cheaper and the pain suffered by Equitable Life policyholders far less. The previous Government dragged their feet, and we have to pay the price.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
May I congratulate my hon. Friend on the progress he has made, given the complexities he alluded to of the time scale and the size of the calculations he has to make? He has already said that the commission will start work and first payments should be made to valid claimants next June. However, can he give any idea of the timetable by which all valid claimants, unless there is an appeal or other court procedure, might expect to receive a payment?
Mr Hoban
I cannot give that commitment yet, and we will not be able to do so until we see the scheme proposed by the independent commission. However, I am clear in my own mind that the time between the first and the last payments needs to be as short as possible, because these policyholders demand justice quickly—and that is what I am keen to deliver.
Stephen Timms
If I remember correctly, there was a statement in January 2009 in response to the ombudsman’s report.
Precisely the people who promised the earth before the election have now decided to sell EMAG down the river. It is a breathtaking breach of trust.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Is this not a bit rich, coming from the right hon. Gentleman, for whom I have a great deal of respect? He had 13 years in which to sort this problem out. He obfuscated the ombudsman not once but twice, and then refused to implement the ombudsman’s ruling. This whole issue could have been resolved by now. We need not have been debating it today if his Government had just got on and done it.
Stephen Timms
I think I am right in saying that the hon. Gentleman was one of those who signed the pledge. He will now need to work extremely hard to persuade his hon. Friends on the Front Bench to deliver what he and so many of his hon. Friends have signed up to.
Capital Gains Tax (Rates)
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown Excerpts(14 years, 5 months ago)
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Mr Darling
The hon. Gentleman was not here in the last Parliament, but I was asked that on numerous occasions. No Government can ever eradicate economic cycles. They have been around for years, and I expect that the current Government will find that they will be around for years as well. What I would say to the hon. Gentleman is this. Just before we went into this crisis, we had the second lowest debt level of the G7, behind only Canada, and although we had a structural deficit, it was much smaller—[Interruption.] Yes, we were borrowing to build schools and hospitals, but when they were sitting here on the Opposition Benches, Conservative Members used to call for more spending on schools, hospitals and the police, not less.
The point is that whatever we do, when we get that borrowing down, we have to ensure that we do it in a way that does not damage the fabric of the economy. Indeed, the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills said that he was
“very much opposed to the Conservative approach of rushing into cuts…regardless of the condition in the economy. That’s not sensible.”
He was right then and he would have been right now, but he is pursuing a different policy.
Mr Darling
No, I am going to make some progress.
The current context is a fragile recovery, with growth in Europe sluggish. Crucially, however, we cannot assume, as the Government seem to, that it is axiomatic that if we cut back on public expenditure, the private sector will come in and take its place. That is not guaranteed at all. We have seen that in Japan and other countries. Indeed, the private sector often relies on public sector spending in many ways, whether through investment and support or directly, because it supplies goods and services to the public sector.
As I have said, borrowing is too high and we need to get it down. As I said to the hon. Member for Bexleyheath and Crayford (Mr Evennett), our receipts from income tax and corporation tax fell, as did our stamp duty receipts when the housing market went down, but that would have happened—indeed, it did happen—to every other major economy. We are not talking about something that was confined to the United Kingdom. Of course, as unemployment goes up, social security spending goes up as well. Indeed, it is interesting that if we look at what has happened to other countries across the world, we see that the deficit this year in this country is about the same as it is in the United States. If we look at debt and the IMF comparisons that were published in 2009, we find that our debt was less than that of Japan, Italy, Germany and France, and, looking ahead to 2015, it will still be less than that of the United States, France, Italy and Japan.
The idea that we are talking about a particularly British problem simply does not stack up. It is not true, but it is used as a convenient excuse for what the Conservative party always wanted to do. The truth is that the Conservatives supported our spending plans right up until the end of 2008—the hon. Member for North West Leicestershire (Andrew Bridgen) might want to consider this point. Indeed, when the now Prime Minister was challenged—I think by some right-wing newspaper—as selling the pass, he said that those spending plans were “tight”. That was the word he used. He said:
“This is why we are sticking to Labour’s spending totals. Taken alone, these are tight.”
That is what he said in 2008, but now the Conservatives turn around and say that what happened would not have happened if they had been in power for the past five years and that things would have been completely different.
Let us be clear: we all want to see borrowing come down, and we need to ensure that that happens. It is also clear that we need to understand the consequences of what we are doing, so that we do not damage our economy or damage the social fabric of this country. However, to suggest that we should not have done anything to support our economy as we went into recession or that we should not have stepped in to prevent the banking system from collapsing—and it was hours from collapsing—is simply nonsense, frankly. Indeed, if we had not done what we did, the cost, in terms of increased borrowing and higher debt, would have been far higher even than it is today, so that argument simply does not stack up.
We need a sensible plan to get borrowing down, but if we get this wrong we will cause major problems, given the scale and speed of the Government’s action. Again, the Business Secretary said a few weeks ago that
“it would be foolish to rush in significant cuts now which take the economy down even further, which lead to an even bigger deficit problem”.
He was right when he said that, yet the view of the Government of whom he is now a member is rather different. To be fair to the Chancellor, he has been consistent. He has wanted to take this risk for some time, and he is now taking it in great style. Even better, from his point of view, is that he has got the Liberals to front it up. No wonder that, once they are out of this Chamber, Conservative Members are laughing at the very idea of getting the Chief Secretary to the Treasury fronting up the cuts last week in his boss’s constituency. That is indeed new politics; I just wonder how long it will last. All I can say is that if things get better, there is no way that the Conservatives will allow the Liberals to front up any good news when it comes.
I am concerned at this time that we run the risk of derailing the recovery, which is why I took a different view. I thought that we should halve borrowing over four years, rather than go further and faster. Looking at the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts published yesterday, I am concerned that it has downrated the growth forecast for this year, which it published a week before, from 1.3% down to 1.2%, and that it has downrated growth in 2011 from 2.6% to 2.3%. The OBR therefore recognises that growth is going to be suppressed as a result of what is being done.
Mr Darling
The Chancellor says it is 10% higher, but when I raised capital gains tax to 18%, I remember the angry campaign waged against it by Conservative Members. They said that 18% would discourage enterprise and was a terrible thing, but they seem to have changed their minds on that absolutely and completely. By the way, we are not going to oppose the increase in capital gains tax; especially when there is a higher 50p rate of tax, sooner or later action would have to be taken to stop the real risk of leakage. As I think the Chancellor said yesterday, the real gain from raising capital gains tax comes from income tax receipts. The position of the Liberal Democrats, however, was quite different.
There are other areas, too, where questions of fairness will be raised. Where in the manifestos of either of the political parties that form the Government was it said that they were going to index benefits to the lower inflation index of the CPI—the consumer prices index—which takes about £6 billion away from people whose income, generally speaking, is not that great? Where was it said in their manifestos that they were going to cut more than £100 in relation to child benefit, or to freeze that benefit for three years? Other changes also deserve very close examination. Everybody knows that housing benefit is in need of reform, as is the disability living allowance, but as we all know, these are complicated, difficult and sometimes controversial issues. It will be interesting to see whether the coalition Government can deliver all the things they promised yesterday.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
The shadow Chancellor said that action would have had to be taken on the CGT rate sooner or later, but I cannot remember him criticising his predecessor when the Labour party reduced CGT from 40% down to 18%. Is he now saying that that was the wrong thing to do, or not?
Mr Darling
I am not saying that, and I am bound to say that I do not remember anybody—and certainly not the Conservative party at the time—criticising the reduction of CGT down to 10%. It was believed that it would help and encourage entrepreneurship—[Interruption.] The hon. Gentleman might like to have a long look at that, but I am sure that many arguments can be mounted both ways. As he knows, I made changes in 2007; I remember that the Conservative party’s complaint then was not about the reduction of CGT, but about my increasing it to 18%. As I said, with income tax rates at 50%, it is sensible to keep an eye on this.
I believe that people will find it difficult to characterise a number of measures announced yesterday as fair. On tax credits, the Chancellor said that the Government were going to start to taper away tax credits from household incomes of over £40,000, but that is already true now. In the following year the threshold goes down to £30,000. As we always said during the election—when it was denied—people on incomes as low £15,000 will be affected. Look at table A.5 on page 64 of the Red Book: it is there; it is all set out. It shows that cuts in entitlement to tax credits go far further than the right hon. Gentleman set out yesterday.
I think that the Liberals will have some difficulty in characterising these things as “progressive cuts”. I understand that the leader of the Liberal Democrats points to the table published in the Red Book, which makes it look as if people at the top end are bearing a fair share of the reductions and tax increases, but it shows that only because the Government have published a table showing measures yet to be introduced, including our national insurance increases. The top decile will be paying more because of measures that I, not the Chancellor, introduced. It is slightly disingenuous of the Prime Minister to give the impression, as he did at the end of Question Time, that what the Conservatives are doing is redistributive and fair. That is not the case.
Vince Cable
That was not on the point I was speaking about. I know that the hon. Lady is a new Member, but I am sorry that she felt the need to read out her question in the way that she did. Nevertheless, there is a very simple answer on page 94 of the Red Book. It is a technical point made by Sir Colin Budd, who drew up this part. These issues are not comparable. Had the Labour plans been implemented, interest rates would have been higher than they now are, which would have dragged down the rate of growth and pushed up the level of unemployment beyond what it is. That is the distinction he makes. He also refers to the fact that there is a basic confusion. I noticed that the Chancellor did not repeat the point in his speech, but it was raised yesterday. That explains the hon. Lady’s genuine misunderstanding.
In addition to issues about how to stimulate demand, there is an issue about how to get business investment moving—how to get supply, and an understanding of the supply side of the economy. A lot of the Budget’s stronger points were about that issue. The Budget was about creating a tax environment within which business is confident to invest. It is about doing the things that my Department is now starting to do in conjunction with the Cabinet Office, such as looking at the 20,000-plus additional regulations that were built in by the last Government and which are shackling small business. It is about addressing the issue of bank credit that was lamentably neglected by our predecessors, and investing in things like apprenticeships, which we have started to do even within our few weeks in office.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
On investment, will my right hon. Friend say a little more about the Chancellor’s words yesterday on enlarging the enterprise finance guarantee scheme, which would help 2,000 small businesses? Some 90% of our economy is made up of small and medium-sized businesses. I have had two meetings with business representatives since the election, and they all tell me that one of the major problems is bank lending to good, viable businesses—particularly those that are exporting around the world. I am sure that those are precisely the sort of businesses that my right hon. Friend had in mind as those which will give us the private sector growth that we require.
Vince Cable
The hon. Gentleman is right, and it is the problem of credit supply to the small and medium-sized business sector that has the greatest potential to disrupt the recovery. That is why the Chancellor included in yesterday’s Budget the finance guarantee, and why we now have to work on why banks that were rescued by the taxpayers do not lend to the good companies that the hon. Gentleman describes, which are solvent, have good order books and will contribute to recovery. That is a major task that the Government now have to undertake.
Diana R. Johnson
The hon. Gentleman does a disservice to the fact that long before the general election, there was cross-party working by hon. Members on both sides of the House to make the economic case for reducing the Humber bridge tolls. He will know that the then Transport Minister, my right hon. Friend the Member for Tooting (Sadiq Khan), had decided not to allow the increase in the tolls and a review was being conducted of whether the toll could be reduced to £1. All I was doing was questioning what was going to happen, and I would be grateful if the coalition partners threw some light on the subject. I am sure that all hon. Members are keen to get a satisfactory resolution to that ongoing problem.
I have a few comments to make about what Labour would have done, had we secured a majority at the election. It is clear—the shadow Chancellor made it clear—that of course we need to get the deficit down. Before the election we had legislated to say that we would halve the deficit within four years, and in the Departments work was being done to identify where reductions could be made. I was in the Department for Children, Schools and Families, so I know that areas had been clearly identified, and my right hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle (Alan Johnson) told me that clearly identified savings had been put together in the Home Office. It is wrong to say that the Labour Government had not started work; however, we made it clear that we had to wait until the growth in the economy was secure.
A key issue that the coalition Government have to grapple with is the fact that just making cuts across the board is not the sensible approach. We need to think about what policies we can introduce to spend and invest now so that we can ensure that we save in future. One of the policies very dear to my heart is healthy free school meals, which piloted in Hull but was slashed by the Lib Dem council without the evidence being evaluated. I believe that there is an economic case to be made. Investing in children early on, making sure that they eat healthily and well and do as well as they can in their education, will reap benefits for us as a society later on. I was disappointed to see that the extension of the free school meals pilot has been abandoned by the coalition Government, as well as the extension of eligibility to those in receipt of working families tax credit, which would have made more families eligible to get free school meals for their children. That is very short sighted.
By cutting too deep and too early, we will risk jobs—jobs in Hull, jobs in Yorkshire and the Humber, and jobs nationally. We will have higher welfare costs and less tax revenue. Growth will be suppressed and I think that the deficit will be much worse.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
The hon. Lady has spent her entire speech carping about my right hon. Friend the Chancellor’s Budget. Can she not at least welcome the large regional fund that is to be set up, through which funding will probably come to her area and which may well benefit her constituents by providing jobs?
Diana R. Johnson
I do not know—there is no detail. We have had vague promises from Ministers about what the regions will get, but no detail. I cannot explain to business men and entrepreneurs in my constituency where the money is coming from to support and incubate their businesses. As far as I am concerned, this is all hot air. [Interruption.] Wait and see? Businesses in my constituency cannot do that. They need to know whether there is to be investment and support. If the coalition Government are serious about supporting the economy in the regions, they should have had their proposals and policies ready for yesterday’s debate and been able to explain what money is available to people in the north.
The welfare reforms and the tax changes announced yesterday will cause great problems in my constituency. Although basic rate taxpayers are promised an extra £170 a year in income tax allowance, that will be far outweighed by the VAT increase to 20% from 4 January next year. We have heard at length about the Lib Dem election campaign poster saying that there would be a Tory VAT bombshell, but the Deputy Prime Minister—bless him!—has done another U-turn that takes his party to a new level of opportunism. That regressive tax on growth will cost the average household £425 a year. That is without counting the other regressive changes in things such as housing benefit, child benefit and child trust funds and the disgraceful scrapping of the health in pregnancy grant.
As my right hon. Friend the Member for Kingston upon Hull West and Hessle told the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister—the self-righteous brothers—they are leading this Government and repeating the PR mantra, “We’re all in it together,” but some parts of our country will be altogether more in it than others. A party that has never been known for sharing wealth and opportunity fairly is very keen to share austerity with everyone.
This past month shows that we have replaced a one-nation Government with a coalition of the two oldest parties, representing the misconceived interests of the privileged classes in this country. My constituents in Hull North, Bransholme, Orchard Park and similar areas, who need public support and public investment to give them the opportunities that, through no fault of their own, they lack, will suffer because of this Budget and this coalition Government.
Mr Ellwood
The hon. Lady has put her point on the record. My argument is that it is difficult for us to take what the shadow Chancellor says seriously when he has been looking through rose-tinted glasses for the last 10 years. Time after time, either he or his predecessor, the former Prime Minister, came up with growth forecasts that were well out of touch with what was happening. That is what led us down the path of thinking that the economy was doing much better than it really was. [Interruption.] If the hon. Lady would stop talking, she would hear what I am saying. She must understand that if the previous Government had not kept on expressing the view that the economy was on the mend when it was not, they would have recognised the position and put in place corrections to stop the spending. The first point I made was the fact that her Government were living beyond their means, yet the hon. Lady still sits there and argues, without even having the grace or the courtesy to say sorry to the nation for the mess we are in.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
Is it not a bit rich for the hon. Member for Wallasey (Ms Eagle) to claim credit for the deficit not being as bad as we thought it would be when Labour had proposed £40 billion of cuts, but not one pound of them had been costed?
Mr Ellwood
My hon. Friend is absolutely right and makes a powerful point. Let us not forget that we are quibbling—well, not quibbling, but the hon. Lady is making an argument about pretty small sums of money if we consider that this country’s total debt is £932 billion. That is a record across Europe, it really is. It currently stands at more than 62% of GDP and is forecast to peak at 70% by 2013-14 and finally to start to fall in 2015-16. This is shocking; it is a cost to the taxpayer to the tune of £43.3 billion in borrowing alone. That is more than the defence budget—an outrageous position to be in. Any business presenting figures like that would be labelled bankrupt.
The OBR forecasts that the UK economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 2.3% in 2011—not what was predicted, as Chancellor said. Unemployment is forecast to rise to a peak of 8.1% this year, while inflation is expected to peak at 2.7% by the end of the year before falling back to the 2% target. What has happened is that we have put in the initiatives to ensure that we keep a cap on unemployment, a cap on inflation and, most importantly, a cap on interest rates. As the markets and financiers agree, if interest rates were forced to go up higher, that is what would lead to the double-dip recession.
Let me deal briefly with Europe. The Opposition now claim that we should not look over our shoulder at what is happening in Spain, Portugal or Greece, but I think it is wise to recognise the folly of what would have happened if Tony Blair had had his way when Labour were in power. I am still astonished that it has taken until, I think, last week to close the office of preparation for entering the euro. That is absolutely barmy. It is worth pointing out that if we had wanted to join the euro club, the maximum budget deficit would have been 3% of GDP in any year. In 2009, Greece’s budget deficit was running at 13.6%. We came in at 11.2%, so there are some similarities.
It is recognised that the eurozone is in a mess because of trading patterns. After joining the club in 1999, Germany’s exports to Greece increased by 133%, and the Germans are no doubt delighted about that. However, Greek exports to Germany increased by only 13%, so the system is one way. Not all those exports have been paid for, and that is probably why Germany feels obliged to help with the Greek debt situation. Part of the problem is also that the Mediterranean countries are not as open as they should be, and skewed the stats in order to join the club in the first place. That is why we were wise to stay out of the eurozone. With such huge fiscal disparities, the 16 economies that share the single currency face a massive reality check. In its current form, the euro could be finished.
Let me turn to specific Budget measures. I am pleased that the Office for Budget Responsibility has been created. I am also pleased by efforts to restore the pension link to earnings. My constituency has many elderly people, as does wider Dorset, and we have called for the measure for a long time. I also want to dismiss a myth from the election campaign that the Conservatives would get rid of winter fuel payments and free bus travel. Such scaremongering was completely out of order, and I am glad to say that the provisions are still in place.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) (Con)
It is a privilege to make my first speech in this Parliament and to do so from the Government Benches. May I congratulate you, Madam Deputy Speaker, on your election? It is great to see you in the Chair. I also congratulate my hon. Friend the Member for Harrogate and Knaresborough (Andrew Jones) on a splendid maiden speech. He will obviously go on to represent his constituents with great poise and ability.
I should like to pay tribute to my new right hon. Friend the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills. Far from being the damascene conversion that Opposition Members have mentioned, his ability to meet the top officials in the Treasury and the Bank of England, study the evidence and conclude that he had been wrong in his assessment of how quickly we need to deal with the deficit shows a man of huge stature, to be honest. It is incredible that the shadow Chancellor, who must have been in possession of the same advice, came to a completely different conclusion.
Today’s debate has been fairly predictable, and I am certain that if Opposition Members were true to themselves they would say that they know perfectly well that, if they had been elected—God forbid—as the Government of this country, they would have had to take some pretty severe measures to deal with the deficit that we have inherited. I pay tribute to the coalition Government, frankly, for being as brave as they have been. This is an austere and difficult Budget, and every person—rich or poor—in the country will take pain. There is no getting away from that.
Owen Smith
Does the hon. Gentleman think that the volte-face performed by the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills reflects perhaps more on his inconsistency and shifting values, as opposed to the position adopted by Labour Front Benchers that has been consistent either side of the election?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
I rather wish that I had not given way for that intervention, but, frankly, it says more about the hon. Gentleman than about the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills, whom I regard as having the greater stature because of what he has done.
I am amazed that the shadow Chancellor can conclude that severe action did not need to be taken to deal with our deficit. If we had not begun to take such action, the international markets would have taken the lead. Spot interest rates and bond rates would rise sharply. The cost of financing the huge deficit that we inherited would rise substantially. Business failures would accelerate. Unemployment would rise. Ultimately, by not taking the action that we have taken, we would return to recession. I completely take the opposite view from that of Opposition Members, who have said that we do not need to deal with deficit in the way we have now done.
Those siren voices of the Opposition would have led us into greater trouble than we are in now. What we see from the Opposition is a legacy where the gap between the rich and the poor grew in their 13 years in government. I would be bitterly disappointed if the Government’s actions do not lead to the economy being immeasurably stronger in five years’ time. We can then start to reduce that gap and put money into poor communities, exactly as the hon. Member for Ogmore (Huw Irranca-Davies) wants us to do, so that we can start to benefit some of the poorest people in society.
It was a huge tribute to the Chancellor that he said time after time yesterday that he wanted to bring the bottom of this country nearer to the top, with some of the measures that underlie the Budget—for example, how he will deal with the state pension. Opposition Members had 13 years to deal with the state pension. More than 1 million pensioners had to go grovelling to the Government and to fill in huge forms to get pension credit. We have now promised that everyone will receive a pension increase linked to earnings, prices or 2.5%, whichever is higher. That is real promise. Pensioners can now look forward to receiving at least a 2.5% increase from 2011.
Angela Smith
I remind the hon. Gentleman that the Labour Government legislated to make the link between pensions and earnings possible in 2008, and that we were timetabled to introduce that in 2012. Will he confirm his Government’s intention to pay the winter fuel allowance next year at the same level as we paid it to our pensioners last year?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
I remind the hon. Lady that the Labour party won the election in 1997. The Labour Government had between 1997 and 2008 to do something about that, but meanwhile more than 1 million pensioners had to go through means-testing and fill out huge forms to get pension credit. A considerable number did not want to claim the credit, because they were too proud to do so, and they therefore lived in poverty. In the first few weeks of this new Government, pensioners have got a better deal than at any point under the 13 years of the previous Labour Government.
Gordon Birtwistle (Burnley) (LD)
Does the hon. Gentleman agree that the Labour Government’s 75p increase for pensioners a number of years ago, which was reduced to 50p after tax, was an insult not only to pensioners, but to the people of this country, which is supposed to be one of the modern countries of the world?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
I entirely agree with my hon. Friend. Many pensioners have told me exactly that—that it was an insult—so I hope that we can move away from treating our elderly people in such a way. As I have said before in the House—I remember raising this point with the then right hon. Member for Sedgefield during Prime Minister’s questions—the way in which a society treats its elderly people is a mark of that society’s civilisation. I hope that we will treat our elderly people with respect.
In an excellent, sober speech, my hon. Friend the Member for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross (John Thurso) put his finger on an interesting yet under-mentioned aspect of our economic problems. It is demonstrated by the table on page 7 of the Red Book, which shows that private debt has doubled in the past 13 years. It is, of course, up to members of households to make their personal decisions, but it is also up to the Government of the day to regulate the totality of private debt. The level of private debt has become unsustainable, something on which I often chased the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) in Budget debates. As the Red Book shows, the savings ratio was lower by the end of the Labour Government than at any time since the 1950s. It is incumbent on any Government of the day not only to encourage savings, but to ensure that the savings culture exists in a stable regime in which inflation is not completely out of control. If we did not take the action outlined in the Budget, interest rates would rise, thus putting inflationary pressure on the economy.
Mark Durkan
Given the hon. Gentleman’s concern to ensure that the Government always encourage a strong savings culture, what does he think will be the impact of removing child trust funds and abandoning the saving gateway?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
No Government would willingly take such action, as my hon. Friend the Member for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross said. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor had to set out a host of tough choices yesterday, but I do not think that the Budget was ideological. The hon. Gentleman has to be honest with himself when he thinks about ways to deal with the deficit. We should not underestimate the scale of the problem. This year’s public sector net borrowing requirement of £149 billion is almost the equivalent of the combined budget for health and education. The scale of the deficit explains why my right hon. Friend the Chancellor had to make really difficult and brave decisions, but by taking such action now, I hope that we will be able to return to a situation in which we can start to help some of the poorest and most vulnerable people in our society, which is what any responsible Government ought to be about.
We will get out of this mess by promoting growth in the private sector and rebalancing our economy. We need to get Britain innovating and making things, and to sell our goods and services to the rest of the world. All the calculations in the Budget are predicated on a rate of growth, and it is the private sector that will deliver that growth. By taking the right measures in the Budget and concentrating on the right things, we might be able to exceed the growth targets set out by my right hon. Friend the Chancellor yesterday. Labour Chancellors have been pretty bad at forecasting growth rates. My right hon. Friend, in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility, has given very prudent forecasts of growth rates. I sincerely hope that we will be able to exceed those forecasts.
Until the election, I served as the shadow Minister for international trade and development, and I know that the actions of the Chancellor in supporting exporters will be critical to how our country moves forward in the coming months and years. After all, in the years from 1996 to 2004, firms that were new to exporting achieved, on average, a 34% increase in productivity in their year of entry—the very fact of their going into exporting made them increase their productivity—and 60% of the UK’s productivity growth was attributable to exporting firms. It is therefore welcome that the Chancellor mentioned exports twice in his speech yesterday.
UK Trade & Investment is the Government’s arm that encourages exports and foreign direct investment. Its chief executive, Andrew Cahn, worked under seven different Trade Ministers in the previous Government. I hope that we will not have that revolving door in the present Government and that we will have consistency of Ministers, who will be able to look at our exports problem and achieve considerable improvement. In the years of Labour Government, UKTI’s budget was cut consistently.
Manufacturing accounts for more than half of our country’s exports. Labour Members will not like the figures I give, but they are absolutely true. In 1997, manufacturing employed 4.19 million people, but by December 2009, under Labour’s stewardship, that number had fallen to only 2.592 million. In other words, there had been a significant decline in the number of people employed in the manufacturing sector. That happened despite the value of sterling falling 24% between July 2007 and the present day. Perhaps one of the most devastating of figures pertaining to the period of Labour stewardship is on our trade deficit in goods, which has increased from £3.1 billion to more than £21 billion.
If Labour Members want to know the reason why we had our longest and deepest recession of our post-war history, it is that the Labour Government failed to support sectors of our economy that provide sustainable economic growth. If we are to exit the grips of recession, cushion the impact of austerity and have a sustainable future, exporters will be the engine room and will need to be given priority in the Chancellor’s thoughts and, indeed, across all Departments.
In his Budget statement, the Chancellor said that departmental budgets will be set out in the spending review later this year—quite rightly, he set a date for that of 20 October—with an average real reduction for unprotected Departments of 20%. Let me say to my right hon. Friend the Chancellor and my hon. Friend the Economic Secretary, who is on the Treasury Bench, that UKTI—our trade promotion body—is a rare thing: it is one of the few parts of Government that actually makes this country money. To meet the challenges of the future, to provide adequate support for our exporters and to attract FDI into this country, its budget must be protected, so that it can continue to support private sector growth and job creation in the UK.
We must also recognise that real reforms are needed to how we support our exporters and attract FDI to adapt to an ever-changing global marketplace. Those changes cannot be made without the correct budgetary support for UKTI, but the rewards for successful implementation are there. We appreciate the opportunities presented to us by having Europe on our doorstep and through our close relationship with north America. Currently, 70% of our exports go to the traditional developed markets of north America and the EU, but the financial support available for firms seeking to export to the wider and increasingly accessible world beyond that must be maintained, because estimates suggest that, by 2020, the EU and USA share of global gross domestic product will have declined to less than 40%. As was correctly identified—I tried to intervene on the shadow Chancellor—we have turbulence in our European markets and EU growth is expected to be sluggish for some time. That is why it is important that we pay due attention to rapidly expanding global markets elsewhere, which cost proportionately more to service than the easier markets of Europe and north America.
We must be proactive, not reactive. British firms must be backed to head for the second-tier cities in larger markets such as India and China. They must also look for unrealised potential in other countries first, before our competitors have won all the contracts. I looked at that problem around the world, and I found country after country where there was huge potential. The British were welcomed, our business men went out there and expressed interest, but somehow it was the Japanese, the Germans, the Americans and the Chinese who popped in and got the contracts. We must provide better support for our companies.
We must benchmark the performance of UKTI against the best of other countries, so that our trade efforts match or exceed those of our competitors. With our overseas network of embassies, we have a fantastic platform for developing British business, and we cannot afford to let departmental cuts affect their work. We need a widely respected senior figure—a FTSE ex-chairman —to go out banging the drum for the UK, selling the country around the world, and consistently to visit those markets to build up contracts.
Nationally, we must concentrate our efforts away from the regional structure introduced by the previous Government. What nonsense that was. Different regional assemblies had offices in the same city, such as Shanghai or Mumbai, all competing with one another for the same business. What a waste of taxpayers’ money, and what confusion it caused to those countries in which they were located.
Claire Perry
I am interested in my hon. Friend’s important proposal for a roving ambassador for British business. Does he agree that there might be potential to retread Sir Digby Jones in that role, particularly as he said yesterday after the Budget:
“I think that sign has gone up around the world saying that Britain is serious about sorting out its economic mess”?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
I am grateful to my hon. Friend. I know that she was upbraided by Mr Deputy Speaker a little while ago—it takes a long time to sort out parliamentary language, and references to “you” and the “hon. Gentleman”. She is absolutely right. I was modelling my remarks exactly on Digby Jones, who did a huge amount of work for this country, and spent an enormous amount of time travelling around the world. He had great, in-depth knowledge of huge sections of industry, having served as chairman of the CBI. We need to appoint someone of that calibre, who has the time, energy and availability to be able to do precisely that job.
As I said, the notion that RDAs should have offices around the world competing with one another led to a huge dilution of the UK brand. It caused confusion in the country in which they were located, and it did not serve our interests of attracting foreign direct investment to this country. I have no doubt that Ministers will abolish that structure rapidly, thereby producing much better results. I welcome the proposals for local enterprise partnerships, which are a huge step forward. We can help the private sector by not having a stratified structure of RDAs across the country. We need different structures in different parts of the country, to deal with the problems in each area. We must concentrate Government advice on business sectors, rather than on regions. It was complete nonsense that the Government’s car adviser was based in the north-east, unable to give advice to car manufacturers and component suppliers in Birmingham. We must concentrate on sectors, so that the automotive sector, for example, has a proper advice team in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.
We must try to support those sectors that the UK is good at, and see how we can improve their export structure. I say this with hesitation at the moment, but our oil sector was respected throughout the world. Our pharmaceuticals, defence and financial services sectors were respected throughout the world, too, and in line with Sir James Dyson’s recommendations, we must aim to become the No.1 high-tech exporter in Europe. We will do that by concentrating on the new, high-growth market sectors, such as those involving low-carbon and green technologies. Those are the industries of the future, and we ought to concentrate on them. We must also ensure that our universities and their basic research are world-beating, and that companies have the incentive to develop those world-beating ideas into products and services that we can sell in greater and greater quantities throughout the world.
Angela Smith
I appreciate what the hon. Gentleman says about the potential of our export and manufacturing sectors, but does he support nuclear power, nuclear energy and the supply of components to the nuclear energy industry as one of those sectors that are important for our future?
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
I am very grateful for that intervention. I have always been a supporter of nuclear power, and I am one of the very few Members who have been to Chernobyl and survived, so I can see what goes wrong in the nuclear sector. However, with modern technology—I say this carefully—I can see that the nuclear sector has an important role to play in the range and mix of our power generation.
The Labour Government left us with another really dire legacy, however, because if we do not introduce nuclear power generation to this country I do not see how we can keep the lights going in the next 20 years—[Interruption.] The Liberal Democrats had different views, but they have looked at the problem and signed up to a nuclear power programme, and I congratulate them on that, because it is the right thing to do. We in this House should not come up with ideological dogma; we should all look at the facts and see what is the correct thing to do, which is—[Interruption.] It is all very well the hon. Member for Penistone and Stocksbridge (Angela Smith) pointing at the Liberal Democrats, but we in the Conservative party have had to swallow things that we do not like. We have looked at the facts and seen the correct thing to do. Therefore, I support nuclear power.
John Thurso
My hon. Friend will know of my long-term support for nuclear power, which I expressed often in the House in previous Parliaments. However, the critical thing is to be in favour not of nuclear power, but of a proper engineering and scientific-based assessment of how to ensure the lowest carbon energy, and if that leads us to nuclear, that is the correct answer.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
As always, my hon. Friend’s wise words are correct. Nuclear power is not only an efficient way of generating energy, but a clean way. We have to use the very latest technology to deal with the nuclear waste that is produced, but I am absolutely certain that if we adopt an open mind and let our scientists get to work, we will find better and better ways of dealing with the waste that nuclear power stations produce. I welcome my hon. Friend’s support on that.
Innovation and exports are just beginning to return, and I am sure that hon. Members from all parts, if they have listened to businesses in their constituencies, will have had that experience. I have a wonderful firm in my constituency, a small FTSE company called Renishaw. It is the world-beater in measuring technology—metrology—but unfortunately it had to lay off several hundred people during the worst of the recession. I am pleased to report to the House, however, that in the past month or so it has begun to re-employ people. That is good news, because we must all work hard on measures with regard to how we employ the maximum number of people in this country. There is nothing worse than people who want to work but are unemployed—and unemployed through no fault of their own. We should concentrate on the terrible figures for 16 to 25-year-olds not in education, employment or training—the so-called NEETs—who are without jobs at the moment, because we have inherited a shocking waste of young talent.
Dr Eilidh Whiteford (Banff and Buchan) (SNP)
In fact, in the 1980s youth unemployment was far higher than it is now. I share the hon. Gentleman’s concern that youth unemployment is a major challenge, but when I look around my own constituency at people who have never worked, they are almost all people who found themselves as young unemployed people 20 or 25 years ago. That is the real problem, and words are not enough—we need to find solutions.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
I think, without knowing the hon. Lady’s constituency backwards, that there are particular factors in her part of the United Kingdom as to why there was that rise in youth unemployment. We can argue about what happened 20, 30 or 40 years ago, but that is almost irrelevant. I am concerned about what the situation is today and what my right hon. and hon. Friends are going to do to deal with it, and I think that they have got some interesting and innovative ideas .
I have another example of a small company. It exports 300 sidecars a year to the Japanese market. We have heard about how difficult the Japanese market is. At our very best, our small and medium-sized, and even our large companies, are very innovative and very good at getting out there and exporting into some of the most difficult markets in the world. They just need a little more support, and then we can get more businesses exporting to the rest of the world. Chatham House recently reported that
“a combination of services and high end manufacturing places Britain in a strong position to meet the needs of the world’s emerging economies in ways that will enable it to sustain its strong comparative advantage”.
It is the small and medium-sized firms that will lead us out of recession. It is the private sector that will compensate for the jobs that are lost in the public sector. It is the private sector to which we must give the right climate and right environment, and then it will thrive.
We have not only the right fiscal environment, but the right environment for dealing with bureaucracy and reducing the amount of burdens that Government place on the private sector. We must give it the right incentive to export and the right tools to do the job. I believe that this Government will lead us out of recession and that we will have a very much stronger economy in four or five years. I look forward to holding the hon. Member for Ogmore to his word. When we have a stronger economy, and when we start helping the most vulnerable in our society, I expect an apology from him.
Mr Evennett
It is nice to hear the hon. Lady admit that the Labour Government did something wrong. I do not think we have had one word like that today, and I have sat through the whole debate. One would think that Labour Members thought that everything they did was wonderful, but in their heart of hearts they know the truth: there were mistakes. We are endeavouring to rectify those mistakes to make sure that those who are vulnerable, such as the elderly, have the dignity in old age that they deserve, and we passionately support and believe in that.
Fairness is key in the tax changes. Far too many people on low incomes pay too much tax. When I was in this place under the Governments of Margaret Thatcher and John Major, people on low incomes paid low tax, but in the past 13 years, because of the policies of the last Prime Minister, including when he was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Labour managed to push more people into tax than ever before—people on low incomes who should never have been paying the level of tax they were. Five or six weeks into office, this Government are already taking action in the Budget to deal with the awful situation of people on low incomes having to pay tax.
Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
My hon. Friend is making an impassioned and thoughtful contribution. There was no more cruel example of what he has just said than the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) abolishing the 10p tax rate, because that put so many poor people into paying not only a low rate of tax, but quite a high rate of tax, on relatively low earnings. In contrast, my right hon. Friend the Chancellor has taken a significant number of people out of the tax net altogether with this Budget.
Mr Evennett
That point is absolutely spot on. The Opposition’s crocodile tears on these issues are lamentable, because they did not do anything in government. They took away the 10p rate, as my hon. Friend has said, and they pushed people on very low incomes into paying tax when that was unfair. My right hon. Friend the Chancellor made it quite clear in yesterday’s Budget that fairness was the underlying key. It was about making sure that everyone pays a fair amount. Those on high incomes will pay more and those on low incomes will pay considerably less. Families, low earners and pensioners have to be a top priority.
In opposition, I was the shadow spokesman on further education and skills, and I believe that training and skills were one of the Labour Government’s greatest failings. Our society needs a well-trained work force who can adapt and take on board challenges, such as those facing small businesses, to make sure that they can get employment and worthwhile involvement in order to make something of their lives. One of Labour’s biggest failings during the recession was not properly investing in skills so that people who lost their jobs could reskill, upskill, retrain or find new jobs.