Early Parliamentary General Election Bill
Baroness Noakes ExcerptsWednesday 30th October 2019
(4 years, 6 months ago)
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Baroness Noakes (Con)
My Lords, I shall not be following the noble Baroness, Lady Ludford, with partisan remarks about Brexit. I will concentrate on the Bill before us. I shall not detain the House long because I am keen that the Bill should make rapid progress to the statute book.
We must rejoice that the other place has spoken in favour of something with a clarity not seen from that place for some considerable time. It voted overwhelmingly for the Bill at Third Reading yesterday and this House should be wary of disturbing that happy alignment. While your Lordships’ House has the power and the right to amend any Bill other than a money Bill, I hope noble Lords will not be tempted to break the spell and ask the other place to think again about any aspect of it. We will not enhance the standing of your Lordships’ House if we are seen to intervene in the calling of a general election that is desired, and indeed much needed, by the other place.
The Bill has a very narrow purpose. It is to allow a general election to take place on 12 December, and nothing else. It is not about wider issues, such as the definition of the franchise. I hope noble Lords will respect the Long Title and not seek to introduce amendments that go beyond the scope of the Bill. If they do, I hope that the excellent clerks in the Bill Office will be robust with them.
Lastly, I appeal to all noble Lords to be brief and efficient at all stages of this Bill. We should return it to the other place unchanged and as rapidly as possible. We must then let the country decide who should govern us, and thereby determine the future of Brexit.
Business of the House
Baroness Noakes Excerpts(4 years, 8 months ago)
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Lord Cormack
I am very glad to have the support of my noble friend and I look forward to being invited to his 65th birthday, when he will be 15 years my junior. His support is very welcome, because we do not always agree on everything.
Baroness Noakes (Con)
My Lords, I share the views of my young noble friend Lord Forsyth about what my noble friend said. His interesting speech covered a number of areas but did not cover one of the more outrageous elements, which is the use of the closure Motion. This, as noble Lords are aware, is designed to be used only in very rare circumstances, which is why the Lord Speaker or the Deputy Speaker always reminds the House that it is a very unusual procedure. It was used several times earlier this year and it seems to be being used as a routine tactic this evening, in a way it was never intended to be. My noble friend Lord True is quite right: it is the equivalent of saying “Shut up”, which is not the way we conduct our business. I would be interested to hear my noble friend’s views on how the way we conduct our business in this House is being harmed by the use of that procedure.
Lord Cormack
As my noble friend asked me to respond, let me say that any procedural device should be used sparingly. I have moved a closure myself, so I cannot pretend that I wholly disapprove of it, but I believe that filibustering does not do the House or the individuals indulging in it any good at all. Of course, it should be used, but the main purpose of my speech was to try to lower the temperature and bring a little sense to both sides of the House, so that we can conclude our proceedings today in a seemly manner and deal with the legislation that is likely to arrive, in an equally seemly and sensible manner.
Lord Willoughby de Broke
I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, for clarifying the issue for the noble Lord, Lord Harris.
The fact is that this House too often forgets the result of the referendum. I must correct the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, on one very small point. David Cameron did indeed legislate for the referendum, but only because of the electoral pressure he was under from UKIP. I am delighted that my noble friend Lord Pearson is here tonight. We had the referendum because the then Conservative leadership was frightened of losing even more voters and MPs to UKIP.
Passing on from that, the Brexit voters in the referendum have continually been misrepresented as a lot of ignorant backwoodsmen. Of course, that is not the case at all. A huge number of people voted to leave. We have heard the cries from noble Lords who are not here now—the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, and others—for a people’s vote. I thought that the referendum was probably the biggest people’s vote we have ever had. I remember sitting in the Chamber in April when it was said that we needed another people’s vote and all the banners outside said: “Let’s have a people’s vote”. Well, in June, we did have another people’s vote. We had the European elections, when the Brexit Party smashed every other party to smithereens. It got twice the number of votes of the Conservative and Labour parties put together. I congratulate the Liberal Democrats, who got 17% of the vote, just under half the Brexit Party vote.
The idea that leaving the EU is some oddball movement and that Brexiteers are deranged is far from the truth. I hope the Government will understand that. I hope the Prime Minister understands that and continues the course that he has set so far. I believe it is important that the House accepts the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, because it makes it quite clear what this is all about. It is about Brexit. In the end, this whole arrangement and this debate today are about Brexit. It is about why people voted to leave and not letting them down. I support the amendment.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, perhaps I can help the noble Lord, Lord Harris of Haringey. My noble friend Lord True’s amendment, which was moved by my noble friend Lord Marlesford, is trying to perfect the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon, by inserting the true motive behind it. It is not that my noble friend Lord Marlesford agrees with the sentiment that the referendum result should be ignored—far from it. I am sure the noble Lord is aware that my noble friend Lord Marlesford and many of us in the Chamber this evening fully wish to respect the result of that referendum. My noble friend is trying to make plain what this Motion is all about.
Lord Harris of Haringey
Of course I understand that it is intended to be some sort of ironic statement. But noble Lords who support this amendment must be clear that, if they vote for it, their names will go down in Hansard as believing that the referendum result no longer matters. That is what their vote will be cast as saying.
Baroness Noakes
I do not think that that would be the case. If anybody reads in Hansard what my noble friend Lord Marlesford has said this evening, they will know exactly what he thinks about the result of the referendum.
I would like to make an additional point in respect of the referendum result, in which 52% of the country voted to leave the European Union and 48% voted to remain. In your Lordships’ House, we have never come close to reflecting the political reality in the country—far from it. That is why, whenever a Motion relating to Brexit is moved, the result always opposes that of the referendum in one way or another. This House needs to think carefully about its legitimacy if it continues to act in a way that is out of line with popular feeling in the country. I believe that this applies also to the other place, where parliamentarians vote in a way that is wholly unlike the referendum result.
Lord Patten of Barnes
Perhaps I can help my noble friend. I think that the Prime Minister is about to canter to her rescue. He has told us that he will appoint to the House of Lords, as soon as he can, scores—maybe a hundred—heroes of Brexit, who will be able to enjoy themselves on these Benches. It was in the newspapers—indeed, it was in the Daily Telegraph—so it must be true. The heroes of Brexit will come cantering to the rescue and make credible this legislature.
Baroness Noakes
I am very grateful to my noble friend for reminding me of that. If he followed me on Twitter, which I do not suppose he does, he would know that I have said that the idea of a hundred new Brexit-supporting Peers coming into your Lordships’ House would be a great start in remedying the imbalance that exists.
Baroness Noakes
A great start, but not necessarily the finish, to getting the right balance in your Lordships’ House. I believe that this House and the other place need to think very carefully when acting so out of line with the result of the referendum. Through that referendum, Parliament ceded control of the decision to the people—the people are the ultimate source of authority in the country—but has been trying ever since to take it back, both in this place and the other place. We run the risk of doing serious harm to the institutions of Parliament.
Lord Goldsmith
My Lords, the issue before the House is whether or not to agree the amendment moved by the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford. I suggest first that the noble Lord withdraws it, but I suspect that that is not going to happen, and, secondly, that the House does not accept the amendment. The reasons are those that have been given already. It does not add to the point about the programme Motion, which says that the Bill, if it reaches us, should be dealt with in accordance with a procedure which would give two clear days for it to be dealt with. I respectfully suggest, as was the point of my intervention on the noble Lord, Lord Marlesford, that it is not helped by adding this statement, whether ironic or political. The real question ultimately is whether or not the programme Motion should be agreed. On that basis, I invite the noble Lord to withdraw the amendment. If not, we will oppose it.
Baroness Noakes
After first “Commons” to insert “, and believing that the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union on 31 October should be prevented”.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, at the request of my noble friend Lord True, I will speak to Amendment 2B. The amendment we considered before the adjournment was described by the noble Lord, Lord Harris of Haringey, as “ironic” and by my noble friend Lord Dobbs as a “bit of honesty”. I should like to continue in that vein with an amendment that, we believe, would contribute more honesty to the Motion that the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon, has put before the House.
Lord Harris of Haringey
I am grateful to the noble Baroness. We had an exchange earlier about irony and the value of having ironic insertions into this Motion. I am assuming that, on the basis that this is another example of the ironic wit of the noble Lord, Lord True, which she is now channelling on his behalf, this will be an extremely brief introduction, because we have already done the irony bit, and we can then move on.
Baroness Noakes
I cannot promise the noble Lord something extremely brief, as I am sure he is aware. To be clear, this is about ensuring that the Motion is framed in wholly honest terms.
The Earl of Courtown (Con)
My Lords, I apologise to the House, but there is a great deal of noise as Peers leave the Chamber and I ask them to be quiet.
Baroness Noakes
I thank my noble friend the Deputy Chief Whip for that, though I did not really mind talking over noble Lords leaving the Chamber.
The Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, refers to the 28 January resolution that focused on the desirability of achieving a deal and then the need for the timely passage of legislation for a deal that commanded the support of the other place. I hope it has never been in dispute that the Government wanted to achieve a deal with the EU. My right honourable friend the previous Prime Minister spent nearly three years wrestling with that and her failure to do it brought about the demise of her political career. The current Prime Minister has said that he wants a deal and is committed to achieving one. He has been clear about that and I hope nobody will challenge his integrity on it. This should not be an issue about dealing with a resolution of the House focused on the achievability of the deal. We should be clear about the motives of those who originally supported the Motion on 28 January this year and those who continue to put obstacles in the way of achieving a deal.
Taking no deal off the table, as this current exercise aims to do, simply weakens the Government’s hand in negotiating with the EU. There is no doubt about that. Ask anyone in the business world. Donald Trump, who might not be admired by all as a President, nevertheless had a highly successful business career, for which he is entitled to respect. He has been clear that no deal is an essential part of the negotiating armoury: nobody in business goes into negotiations with their hands tied behind their back or having given away their negotiating cards.
It is very clear that most, though not all, noble Lords who proclaim their opposition to no deal are in fact disputing the result of the referendum and are against Brexit in its entirety. I believe that they cynically use the difficulties of achieving a satisfactory deal with the EU—it certainly is difficult—as cover for their real aim, which is to defeat Brexit. The Liberal Democrats have been admirably honest about their intentions. While they have railed against exiting without a deal at regular intervals, we should be under no illusion that their real aim is to reverse the outcome of the 2016 referendum. Their EU Parliament election campaign earlier this year was explicit on this. Indeed, their MEPs proudly, if that is the correct term, wear those vulgar T-shirts with “Bollocks to Brexit” printed on them as a badge of honour—not an attractive advertisement for the UK at the opening of the European Parliament.
The position of the Labour Party is much less clear. It is not a united party on this issue, but its true colours have been emerging as another champion of remain. Whether they call it a confirmatory referendum or some other euphemism, they want to remain and are talking about campaigning for remain. There may well be a few honourable souls left in the Labour Party who respect the clear message from the referendum, particularly those in Labour seats where the leave vote was strong; they are likely to be the minority. I shall say nothing today about my noble friends on these Benches who share the views held on the Benches opposite. I regret that if they continue to hold their views, they will not support this Government in seeking a deal on the best possible terms. I hope that, despite their reservations on Brexit, they will see that the Motion before us puts the Government in an impossible position, and I hope to see them voting in our Lobbies again. I hope that they are not simply trying to undermine the results of the referendum. I will similarly say nothing about those on the Cross Benches who have been in similar opposition to the Government in their attempts to get the best possible deal on Brexit, because I hope that they too will see, if for no other reason, that this business Motion is no way for us to work as a successful revising Chamber.
Rejecting no deal is about first putting off the day of our exit again and then again. We have done it twice so far. How many more times? Of course, the ultimate objective for those who reject the referendum result is to end up eventually revoking Article 50. That has been the explicit aim of some who align themselves with this and some of those shadowy organisations outside Parliament—
Lord Warner (CB)
I say respectfully to the noble Baroness that the speech she has made is one that should be made on the Bill itself when it comes here. We can all have a good go at what people’s views are on leaving the EU, but today we are supposed to be debating a process Motion about how we deal with that piece of legislation, not its merits, demerits and history. I would be grateful if the noble Baroness would bring her conclusions to a rapid end so that we can take a decision on it.
Baroness Noakes
I thank my noble friend for that. I say to the noble Lord that this amendment is about the Motion before us and about describing the Motion correctly. It is not debating the Bill. I look forward to debating the Bill as and when it arrives in this House if we have time, but this is about correctly describing the Motion and being honest about what it is really about.
One of the very worst bits about the Bill that this is designed to enable, as the noble Baroness the Leader of the Opposition has made clear, is that it would hand the timing of our exit entirely to the EU. I agree that we are not debating the Bill today.
Baroness Altmann (Con)
I am most grateful to my noble friend for giving way. It really seems that this is an attempt to make us unable to carry out our duty, which is to scrutinise and, if necessary, revise or pass legislation passed in the other place and that it wishes us to carry through. Is my noble friend saying that she does not wish this legislation to be taken by this House, because obviously we are facing the Prorogation timetable? If my noble friend wishes the Bill to come to us and be debated, this Motion offers the opportunity for that to happen.
Baroness Noakes
I am well aware of where my noble friend is coming from. I just say that we have no objection to the Bill coming here, as we never have to Bills that come from the other place, provided that they come in the ordinary course. We are objecting to the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon.
Lord Patten of Barnes
How can it come in the ordinary course, given the decisions taken for pretty shameless political reasons on Prorogation by the Prime Minister? How can that possibly be regarded as normal?
Baroness Noakes
I have to tell my noble friend that we normally have prorogations every year. We are long overdue a prorogation. Prorogations are a normal part of parliamentary life, as I am sure he is aware from his long career in Parliament. At this point, noble Lords do not like this particular juncture of prorogation—I understand why—but prorogation is a perfectly normal, healthy activity for Parliament to engage in.
Lord Patten of Barnes
My noble friend is very kind to refer to the longevity of my career, but it has not been long enough to go back to the last time we had a prorogation of anything like the length of this one—in the middle of a real matter of concern for the national interest. We know what the reason for this prorogation is, and there is a certain impertinence in pretending that we are all fools.
Lord Harris of Haringey
My Lords, I think we are drifting, I beg to move that the Question be now put.
Baroness Noakes
I have to advise the noble Lord that I have not yet moved the amendment. I am only speaking to it; the Question cannot be put.
The Deputy Speaker (Lord Faulkner of Worcester) (Lab)
Yes, I cannot accept a Motion that the Question be now put if the Motion itself has not been moved. If the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, will move the Motion, we can move to the second one.
Baroness Noakes
I will move the amendment when I have finished what I have to say on it.
I return to the issue of prorogation. I thank my noble friend Lord Dobbs for assisting me on that, but I think the people who are getting excited about prorogation are just looking for excuses to get excited about what they do not like, which is that we are leaving the EU. It is no more than a substitute, a smokescreen, for something that, deep down, they do not really like and do not want to get on with.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
Does my noble friend not agree that, until quite recently, it was normal for us not to sit in September at all, for us to come back only after party conference and for us to add that to the period of recess? The only indication we have is that those people who are trying to frustrate the wishes of the British people were planning to extend the recess to undermine the decision taken by the British people. There is this idea that this is an abnormally long prorogation. Does she further recall that on several occasions, Members opposite, including the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, have been complaining about the length of this Session because the number of days available to the Opposition for debates was being limited? Do we not see a certain amount of hypocrisy here?
Baroness Noakes
I completely agree with my noble friend: hypocrisy describes well what we see in the way that many people are referring to prorogation.
Lord Kerr of Kinlochard (CB)
I am most grateful to the noble Baroness, and I remember an occasion on which we agreed about something.
I cannot accept what the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, just said. There is nothing abnormal about prorogation, but a prorogation to permit or require a five-week suspension at this particular time—which, as the noble Lord, Lord Dobbs, rightly said, is not a normal time—is a scandal; it is abnormal.
I say to the noble Baroness, who earlier in her remarks attributed some motives and concerns to the Cross Bench—I cannot speak for the Cross Bench; we do not have a collective view—that a common view among those on the Cross Bench to whom I have spoken tonight that it is quite extraordinary, and against all the traditions of this House, that we have a Bill that has passed the House of Commons, and we have 84 amendments, a planned filibuster and people planning to argue that it is more important to debate bat habitat preservation than the Bill which the House of Commons has passed today.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, we have never actually said that we should not debate the Bill. We have said that we are very happy to debate the Bill in the ordinary way. Our objection, and all the amendments to which the noble Lord referred, are about the business Motion before us, because of its seriously deleterious nature compared with the way in which this House does its normal business. The Motion is designed only to accomplish that Bill.
Baroness Altmann
I thank my noble friend for giving way, but the Leader of the Opposition, who moved the Motion, has already said that if the Government are willing to take the Bill in the normal way, she will abandon her Motion. This seems to me to be some kind of government filibuster to prevent us debating the Bill.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, I am not part of the Government; like my noble friend, I am a mere Back-Bencher. This is not a government Motion at all. Unless and until there is an agreement between the Front Benches, the existing rules will apply. The noble Baroness, Lady Smith, is trying to overrule the normal rules with her Motion, which is why we oppose it. We do not oppose the Bill; we oppose the Motion and, therefore, the way in which the procedures of our House are being subverted—not just in this instance, although we know that the motive for moving such a Motion is to achieve this particular Bill, but because it could do this House long-term harm. That is what I care about and what I know many of my colleagues care about.
Lord True
This is not a government-inspired matter. I am not grand enough to aspire to writing my memoirs but if I were ever to do so, history would show that the Government had very little to do with these proceedings, which result from the genuine anger on all sides of the House at the device being put forward. We hear all this stuff about how we must rush through this and that but is it not the case that this Parliament voted, and it is the law of the land, that we should leave the European Union and do so on 31 October? This has been debated ad nauseam. We are seeing a desperate attempt by a bunch of remainer ditchers to reverse not only the verdict of the people but the prior verdict of this Parliament. Is that not the real disgrace in these circumstances?
Baroness Noakes
We must remember that we are debating how the Bill is being handled, not the fact that it has been approved by a majority in the other place. Of course, when Bills come here with a majority from the other place, we do what we normally do: receive and scrutinise them. The purpose of the Motion before us is to limit the way in which we normally receive and scrutinise Bills from the other place, so we should be careful to ensure that we are comfortable with that. In particular, the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon, would introduce a guillotine Motion, which was discussed during the debate on an earlier Motion.
Lord Framlingham
Does my noble friend not find all this a little shameful? Bearing in mind that the Motion is just paving the way for getting the Bill quickly through the House, it is completely stifling debate and introducing a guillotine for the first time ever in this House. These matters are very serious. It is only 9 pm. Already, there is huge pressure here. Only a handful of us in this House are standing up for the 17.4 million people out there. We are hugely outnumbered; we know that. We are being sneered and sniggered at and pressurised, as we have been for the past three years. I am totally with my noble friend: the way that things are being handled tonight is shocking and I hope that she will finish her remarks in her own time.
Baroness Noakes
I thank my noble friend for his remarks. The guillotine is, of course, the thing we find most difficult. Earlier this afternoon, the House decided without debate not to go into Committee to discuss, in effect, the use of the guillotine. I think that was an error by the House, because that is how we should have discussed that really important change in our procedures. The noble Baroness, Lady Deech, thoughtfully introduced her amendment in relation to the guillotine. Again, noble Lords opposite closed that down without any debate whatever. This is really important for the future way in which this House operates, and noble Lords here should be in no doubt that they are perpetrating a form of constitutional vandalism by insisting on a guillotine Motion. That is what we are fighting against and will continue to fight against.
Lord Goldsmith
I may have given the noble Lord advice, but I did not expect him to take it.
Baroness Noakes
Noble Lords should have got the understanding that we are not trying to debate the Bill but the Motion, and therefore the mechanism of achieving the Bill. We do not believe that it is right and proper to use the guillotine Motion. We believe that the House should look at that extremely carefully before ever contemplating it. To come back to my amendment—I am sure noble Lords opposite would like me to return to my amendment, although I am happy to take any other interventions—
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
The noble Lord, Lord Warner, mentioned me by name and made the assertion that we were somehow preventing the consideration of the Bill from the House of Commons. Should we not take account of the fact that this Bill has been taken through the House of Commons by abandoning the normal procedures and subverting our constitution? Notwithstanding that, and given that it will come to this House, if the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, the Leader of the Opposition, would care to withdraw this outrageous guillotine Motion, there is nothing whatever to stop the House getting on with considering the Bill from the House of Commons now.
The Lord Speaker
My Lords, we really need to have a Question before us, otherwise we are having a debate at this stage. The noble Baroness has now been on her feet, or around her feet, for about 23 minutes. It is the custom to use this not for debate but to put a Question.
Baroness Noakes
I say to the Lord Speaker that I have not been encouraging the debate but trying to introduce and speak to my amendment. Of course, other noble Lords have wished to raise a number of other matters, and obviously I feel it necessary to let noble Lords have an opportunity to have their say on those things.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
It is worth noting that this is the first time that I can recall where the Chair has intervened in a matter such as this.
Baroness Noakes
Perhaps we can leave that to consider on another day. Let me go back to what I said at the outset. My amendment is about being honest about why the Motion is before us. It is not just about not achieving no deal; it is really about having no Brexit. My amendment does not affect the substance of the Motion from the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, but merely makes plain the actual motivations of those who seek to promote this extraordinary parliamentary device and to partake in the constitutional vandalism to which I referred a few moments ago. Put simply, they are designed to prevent the UK’s departure from the EU. There is no more to it than that. That is what my amendment is trying to do. I believe in calling a spade a spade. I beg to move.
Baroness Noakes
After first “Commons” to insert “, and only once current legal proceedings relating to prorogations in the Scottish courts have been concluded”.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, Amendment 2E in the name of my noble friend Lord True was going to be moved by my noble friend Lord Forsyth. However, as our business has not progressed as quickly as we expected, he is on his way to catch the sleeper train to Scotland. I can tell that the House is disappointed that he is not taking part in dealing with this amendment.
I am pursuing what my noble friend Lord True started with the previous amendment: trying to find out how those who have tabled this Motion see the interaction between it and the proceedings taking place in the various courts mentioned. My noble friend Lord True dealt with the English court action. Amendment 2E deals with the proceedings relating to Prorogation in the Scottish courts.
The temporary interdict, as I think it is called in Scotland—those of us who learned our law elsewhere call it an injunction—was not granted. We had Lord Doherty’s judgment today. He said:
“This is political territory and decision making which cannot be measured against legal standards”.
He also said that accountability should rest with,
“parliament, and ultimately the electorate”.
From the point of view of those initial proceedings—this was in response to those taken by a number of MPs and noble Lords—that seems to be settled. However, as I understand it, there is a possibility of that decision being appealed.
Putting it more directly to the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith—who I believe is answering on the Front Bench at the moment—since the original action has now been settled against those seeking an interdict, if the decision is appealed and it is determined that Prorogation should not take place, does that affect how the Motion is put together? Given that many noble Lords said earlier today that they believed they were forced into this action because of the nature of Prorogation, it seems to me that the need for this Motion falls away if Prorogation falls away.
These amendments have been drafted to establish the interconnection between the Motion and whether Prorogation is allowed to remain in place or is defeated by the various legal actions. I am trying to find out Her Majesty’s Opposition’s position on this from the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith. I beg to move.
Lord Goldsmith
My Lords, it is hard to resist an invitation put by the noble Baroness, Lady Noakes, but the position is quite straightforward: legislation is one thing, litigation is another. At the moment, Prorogation is going to take place; no court has said that it will not. In those circumstances we are faced with the ultimate guillotine, if your Lordships like, of seeing the business in this House stopped. That is why we want to agree the Motion moved by my noble friend Lady Smith of Basildon: to make sure this House has a full opportunity to deal with the Bill, which has now arrived from the other place. It arrived during the debate and we will, we hope, be taking it. As it stands at the moment, as I said, Prorogation will take place.
The Deputy Speaker
Am I to assume that the noble Baroness is pressing the amendment or seeking to withdraw?
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, again I move this amendment on behalf of my noble friend Lord True, and I can be briefer than we have been to date. It concerns the Northern Irish courts, where as I understand it there are other proceedings taking place in relation to Prorogation. I do not think that we have had a satisfactory answer to the question put in the previous two amendments, so I beg to move this amendment.
Baroness Noakes
Leave out paragraph (1) and insert—
“(1) Standing Order 40(4) to 40(9) (Arrangements of the Order Paper) be dispensed with in relation to any bill sent from the House of Commons relating to the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.”
Baroness Noakes
My noble friend Lord True is detained elsewhere at the moment, but I will not disappoint noble Lords by not allowing the House to hear about Amendment 2J. We are moving on to amendments to paragraph (1) of the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, so noble Lords may wish to note that we are making progress—we have got past the initial preamble to the Motion and are now on paragraph (1).
Paragraph (1) of the Motion provides that,
“Standing Order 40(3) to 40(9) … be dispensed with”,
to allow proceedings on the Bill to be handled. Amendment 2J suggests removing only Standing Order 40(4) to 40(9), leaving Standing Order 40(3) extant. The purpose of tabling the amendment is to explore with the mover of the Motion why the quite draconian suspension of Standing Orders, which have served this House very well, is needed in this case. Standing Order 40 has been in our Standing Orders since 1954.
Standing Order 40(3) says:
“Subject to paragraph (1), notices relating to the Business of the House and to the Chairman of Committees’ Business, if he so desires, shall have priority over other Public Business”.
Standing Order 40(1) says:
“Oral Questions shall be entered before other business”.
The Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, would remove the provision about notices relating to private business and the Chairman of Committees, if he so desired, being entered before public business—in other words, before handling any Bill that came. We do not think that a case has been made for removing this important part of our Standing Orders—certainly, no argument has been put for any part of the Motion.
We believe that the Standing Orders are an important part of the way this House operates and has operated well over many years. We have them to ensure that we know how business will be conducted, so any suggestion that we should remove or suspend any part of our Standing Orders should be taken seriously by your Lordships’ House, because we would be overturning many years of tradition. The purpose of the amendment is, as I said, to reinstate Standing Order 40(3), because we believe that it is important. I beg to move.
The Deputy Speaker (Lord Lexden) (Con)
I should inform the House that if any of Amendments 2J to 2Q are agreed I cannot call Amendments 3 to 27 by reason of pre-emption.
Lord Cavendish of Furness
My Lords, I regret to say that I feel the noble and learned Lord has been negligent, and not for the first time today. Surely, as my noble friend Lord Mancroft has said, it is only reasonable to explain the rationale for a part of the process. Again, the noble and learned Lord has failed to do so, so the House needs to look for a proper explanation of this part of the Motion.
Baroness Noakes
I thank all noble Lords who have spoken, in particular my noble friends Lord Mancroft and Lord Cavendish. I do not think that we have heard a good reason why Standing Order 40(3) should be removed so that notices relating to the business of the House and the Chairman of Committee’s business should not be allowed to take priority over other public business. I wish to test the opinion of the House.
Baroness Noakes
Leave out paragraph (1) and insert—
“(1) Standing Order 40(3) and 40(5) to 40(9) (Arrangements of the Order Paper) be dispensed with in relation to any bill sent from the House of Commons relating to the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.”
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, I had already arranged with my noble friend Lord True that I would speak to Amendment 2K. It is similar to Amendment 2J, which I moved on behalf my noble friend. It relates again to Standing Order 40. Paragraph 1 of the Motion tabled by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, dispenses with Standing Order 40(3) to 40(9). This amendment would dispense with Standing Order 40(3) and 40(5) to 40(9) but would leave in place Standing Order 40(4), which says:
“On all sitting days except Thursdays, notices and orders relating to Public Bills, Measures, Affirmative Instruments and reports from Select Committees of the House shall have precedence over other notices and orders save the foregoing”.
As I said when I moved the previous amendment, we should play around with Standing Orders only when it is absolutely necessary. I do not think that we had a convincing explanation from the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith, as to why these parts of Standing Order 40 have been chosen to be dispensed with to speed up the Bill that has come from the other place.
Standing Order 40(4) says that,
“On all sitting days except Thursdays”,
these notices and orders are important. Of course, the Motion relates only to Thursday and Friday, which is not a normal sitting day. It is open to question why the preparers of this Motion have decided to eliminate Standing Order 40(4). We should override Standing Orders, which are there to help us to do business efficiently and properly on a regular basis, only when we completely understand why they are being removed. Amendment 2K is designed to ensure that Standing Order 40(4) remains intact despite the Motion proposed by the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon. I beg to move.
Lord Goldsmith
My Lords, the answer on this amendment is the same as that on the last amendment. The Motion tabled by my noble friend Lady Smith of Basildon has been drafted to ensure that this House will have the maximum time to consider the Bill that has come from the other place if the Motion is passed and be able to complete the Bill before Prorogation. The need to avoid that problem is at the heart of all this. Those who are experienced in the procedures of the House know that there are ways in which time can be taken and things can be undermined so that the House will not have the time to consider the Bill. That is what this is all about.
I have to say to the noble Baroness that this is no different from the previous amendment. She has seen what the House thought of that. It was rejected overwhelmingly. In those circumstances I respectfully suggest that the noble Baroness have the courtesy to accept that that is what this House will do on this amendment—and indeed the subsequent amendments which are in exactly the same form—and withdraw it.
Baroness Noakes
My Lords, I understand that the noble and learned Lord, Lord Goldsmith, wishes to curtail discussion on this Motion. However, I do not think that he has explained why we should dispense with Standing Order 40(4) and I wish to test the opinion of the House.
Business of the House
Baroness Noakes Excerpts(5 years, 1 month ago)
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Baroness Noakes
Leave out from “move” to the end and insert “notes that the Prime Minister has already indicated her intention to ask for a delay in the date for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union and considers it unnecessary, as well as undesirable and unprecedented, to apply exceptional procedures to the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.5 Bill) and therefore regrets the proposal by Her Majesty’s Opposition to do so.”
Baroness Noakes
I thought that the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, would be looking forward to hearing from me. The amendment standing in my name on the Order Paper gives reasons for not supporting the Motion of the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, which are as follows:
“that the Prime Minister has already indicated her intention to ask for a delay”;
and that this House “considers it unnecessary”—as well as “undesirable and unprecedented”—“to apply exceptional procedures”. I shall speak to those elements in a moment.
I wish that the House had committed this Motion to be debated in Committee because we could have had a more natural, free-flowing discussion about some of the issues raised so far—all of which have been brought to an end by the closure Motion, which I believe is undesirable. However, the House chose not to go that way; that leaves a number of unanswered questions, which we still need to explore, about exactly how the procedures will work today. I am quite unclear about how we proceed between Second Reading and Committee, given that there has to be an interval to allow for amendments to be processed and made available to noble Lords, and for noble Lords to consider them.
Lord Hunt of Kings Heath
My Lords, going back to the Bill that I took through in a day, clearly, gaps were put in. There was a gap of an hour or so between Second Reading and Committee to allow people to draft amendments and have them printed. The same could happen between that stage and Report. It is perfectly proper and easy to make this work in one day.
Baroness Noakes
The noble Lord, Lord Hunt, makes a very good point but the Bill he refers to was undertaken with the full co-operation of the usual channels; because they co-operate, they set out how those things will work. That has not happened in this case, as I understand it, and therefore this House is quite unaware of what will happen when we get to the end of Second Reading.
Lord Hunt of Kings Heath
My Lords, the temptation to live past glories is ever-present in your Lordships’ House but the point is that the Bill I am talking about had its contentious points: I remember that the noble Lord, Lord Alton, who is not here in his place, and Baroness Blatch, who I think noble Lords opposite will recall with a great deal of respect, were very much opposed to it. Perhaps the noble Baroness was there when we did it; the point I am making is that we were not unanimous on that Bill.
Baroness Noakes
The point remains that the Bill was processed with the full agreement of the usual channels. The fact that it was not supported by all Members of the House is irrelevant. The usual channels arrange for the orderly business in this place.
Lord Cormack (Con)
Is it not also the case that we are not having a day? It will be around 8 pm or 9 pm before we get on to Second Reading because we will have my noble friend Lord Forsyth’s Motion, as well as a Statement. This is crazy.
Baroness Noakes
I completely agree with my noble friend, which is why it is important to understand the implications of this. If, as I suspect, a number of amendments to the Bill will be tabled after Second Reading—of course, they cannot be tabled until then—the Public Bill Office will require considerable time in which to manage them. It will arrange for them to be printed, then noble Lords will obviously need to have sight of and consider them, as well as consider whether there are any appropriate groupings of them. This is not a rapid process, so we then come up against the issue of what time this will all happen. I have absolutely no idea.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock
Can I answer the question of the noble Lord, Lord Cormack? If noble Lords who have tabled wrecking amendments decided not to move them and if the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, decided that the important reports from his committee should not be debated half way through the night, we could go straight to considering the Bill now. That would show this House in a good light, considering the Bill properly.
Baroness Noakes
I hear the noble Lord, but to put the onus on my noble friend Lord Forsyth to delay the debate on his very important reports issued last year is unfair. We are in this position because of the action taken by the Opposition in tabling the Motion to deal with this in one day.
Lord Robathan
The truth is that the objection of most of us to this business Motion is to it being rushed through. Why, for instance, could the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, not move for Committee on Monday and have only Second Reading today? How about that? It would seem to be a reasonable compromise.
Lord Dubs (Lab)
I have a small suggestion. I am not sure whether I am being fair to the noble Baroness, but logically her amendment and the following four should be debated and moved en bloc. We do that for other things; why can we not do it today?
Baroness Noakes
The noble Lord may well find some commonality in some of the things that each of us says about our Motion, but they are distinct Motions that deserve to be considered in their own right. That is why we have tabled them in that way. Before I leave this point, there is a serious issue that I hope the Front Bench opposite will consider, which is what will happen to the time of this House. We should consider in particular the impact on the staff of this House, who have to serve the way that this Bill is being processed.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
I very much agree with the point my noble friend made, particularly about the staff. There are two Motions from the Economic Affairs Committee that are being taken together. One relates to 50,000 people who are affected by the loan charge. Another relates to small businesses that have to submit their VAT returns digitally by tomorrow. These are big issues, and it is not my Motion but the committee’s. I say to the noble Baroness on the Front Bench that it seems that there is a consensus in the House that it is more sensible to take Committee on Monday.
Lord Forsyth of Drumlean
If there is not, it would be interesting to know what the arguments are. Then we could proceed in a sensible way that reflects people’s plans and also those of the staff of the House.
Baroness Noakes
I thank my noble friend for that intervention. He reminds me of the importance of his debate, and indeed I am speaking in that debate. It is not just about the 50,000 people who are affected by the loan charge—although it is very serious for all those individuals—but there are issues with suicides that have flowed from that loan legislation. That is why it is really important that we continue with that debate.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock
The noble Baroness is right that these are two important reports. It would be much better for them to be dealt with properly, at a sensible hour on Monday afternoon—which they could be if the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, wanted them to be properly debated instead of used as an obstruction to today’s business.
Baroness Noakes
I am sorry that the noble Lord thinks they are an obstruction to today’s business, but today’s business has been forced on us by the Benches opposite—it seems without any consideration of the sequencing of the Bill as it comes through this House, as I raised in my opening remarks. These are important issues and I hope that the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, will reflect on them.
The first reason for my amendment to the Motion of the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, is that the Prime Minister has already indicated her intention to ask for a delay. I remind the House of what my right honourable friend the Prime Minister said earlier this week, when she addressed the nation. She said:
“I know there are some who are so fed up with delay and endless arguments that they would like to leave with no deal next week”.
I count myself in that group—but that is not the point of today. She said:
“I’ve always been clear that we could make a success of no deal in the long term. But leaving with a deal is the best solution. So we will need a further extension of Article 50, one that is as short as possible and which ends when we pass a deal. And we need to be clear what such an extension is for, to ensure we leave in a timely and orderly way”.
My right honourable friend the Prime Minister said that to the nation on television. She said it in the other place and in a letter that has been written to all Conservative parliamentarians—so she means it and we should take her at her word.
Lord Lansley (Con)
My noble friend argues that the Bill is therefore unnecessary, but I am afraid that it would be necessary if, for example, the European Council made a counterproposal for a significantly longer extension of Article 50. In the absence of this legislation, the Prime Minister would have to use the prerogative power to refuse that, and we might then leave on 12 April without a deal. The House of Commons, with this legislation, seeks to exclude that possibility. I am sorry; the argument that this is unnecessary does not wash.
Baroness Noakes
I have to disagree with my noble friend on that. We have to trust that the Prime Minister means what she says.
Baroness Noakes
Benches opposite may laugh, but that is highly disrespectful to a Prime Minister who has worked extremely hard on this. The Prime Minister can be criticised for many things—
Lord Strasburger (LD)
I remind the House that this is the Prime Minister who told the nation seven times that she was not going to call a snap election—and the eighth time, she said she was.
Baroness Noakes
I am not entirely uncritical of the Prime Minister, and in particular of her handling of Brexit. Anybody who has heard me speak before will know that.
Lord Myners (CB)
I do not wish to quote the Prime Minister to embarrass her, but to remind colleagues in the House that the Prime Minister has, perhaps belatedly, recognised that there is a need to reach across and hear the views of others to facilitate a consensus in what most of us would agree is a moment of crisis. That is not a word I use frequently, but we are in the eye of the storm and I would like this House to be seen to be playing its role in taking things forward and facilitating agreement on a strategy.
The debate of the noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, is on a matter of considerable importance. Nobody who suggests that it might properly be delayed until early next week should be accused of, in some way, belittling the issues involved. The nation is now genuinely looking to this House to have a mature and proper debate on a matter of great importance. It reflects badly on the House and the institution if we are seen to become besotted with procedure, thereby denying the vital need to address the issue. We will not address the issue until we move on from matters of process to matters of substance.
Baroness Noakes
Indeed, but there are important issues of process that we do need to address. I was saying that the Prime Minister had not always made a success of Brexit to date, but she has been persistent throughout in trying to achieve the will of the majority, the 17.4 million people who voted to leave in the referendum, and we have to give her credit for that. She has also acted throughout with integrity, and I hope that no noble Lord would suggest otherwise. In some ways, the Bill suggests that we cannot trust the Prime Minister, and I resent that.
As the noble Lord, Lord Myners, pointed out, the Prime Minister has now engaged in discussions with the Opposition. We understand that they are constructive; whether anything comes of them remains to be seen. To date, the Leader of the Opposition has shown no interest in doing anything other than pursuing a political line on Brexit. He even refused to go into cross-party discussions which my right honourable friend set up last month because he could not walk into the same room as Chuka Umunna, one of the MPs who had left his party and was a founder member of the independent group—the TIGers. It is of great credit to the Prime Minister that she is now reaching out to try and reach some consensus on a deal that the Commons can align around when it goes back to them. This Bill is saying that we do not trust the Prime Minister to do that. That is an unfortunate thing, and why the Bill is unnecessary.
The next reason for not agreeing with the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, is that it is unnecessary to apply exceptional procedures. Your Lordships’ House has good procedures to allow it to do its job as a revising Chamber. The House normally prides itself on its ability to scrutinise legislation carefully. The reason we do this—
Baroness Noakes
The reason we do this is that the other place does not do a very good job of scrutinising legislation. There are a lot of reasons for that. Compared with the normal proceedings of your Lordships’ House, the proceedings in the other place are much more party political. Anybody who reads Hansard can see that. In particular, since 1997, when Mr Blair introduced programme Motions, the amount of time dedicated to legislation has been severely truncated at all stages of Bills going through the other place. They often arrive in your Lordships’ House with very little scrutiny, and with some clauses and parts of Bills not scrutinised at all.
We have an important job to do. When my right honourable friend Sir Oliver Letwin was moving one of his Motions yesterday in the other place, he freely admitted that the Bill—which we will move on to at some stage—needed to be “tightened” and that that would be done by the House of Lords. So the other place now expects this House to do the job of perfecting legislation. That has been the case for some considerable time, but we have to have procedures to do it.
Standing Order 46 sets out the bare bones of how we approach legislation. It states:
“No Bill shall be read twice the same day; no Committee of the Whole House shall proceed on any Bill the same day as the Bill has been read the Second time; no report shall be received from any Committee of the Whole House the same day such Committee goes through the Bill, when any amendments are made to such Bill; and no Bill shall be read the Third time the same day that the Bill is reported from the Committee, or the order of commitment is discharged”.
Those arrangements—
Lord Pannick
Does the noble Baroness accept that, forceful though her points no doubt are, we have now been discussing the same points for three hours and 46 minutes, in the context of a Bill that has been sent to us by the House of Commons on an urgent basis? Does she not accept that it really is time to move on? She has put her name down for Second Reading. All these points could be made in her Second Reading speech.
Baroness Noakes
I fully hear what the noble Lord, Lord Pannick, says, but I have a right to be heard on the Motion that I have put on the Order Paper. A considerable amount of the time has been taken up by noble Lords moving closure Motions, which involves two Divisions every time.
Lord Butler of Brockwell (CB)
My Lords, is it not the case that the procedural issues which the noble Baroness is now speaking about have already been decided twice by the House in earlier votes?
Baroness Noakes
No: they are on different amendments to the Motion so they are different issues.
Viscount Ridley
This seems extraordinary. We have not heard from my noble friend Lady Noakes before this. I think we should hear her respectfully.
Baroness Noakes
I thank my noble friend for that. I had reached the end of reading through Standing Order 46, which is an important foundational part of our procedures. I remind noble Lords that it has been in existence since 1715. It has served us well for more than 200 years, so we should be very careful about tinkering with it. It is the case, in many instances, that those rules can be modified if noble Lords agree. It is usually done through the usual channels, in a way that achieves consensus. That has not been the case on this occasion. It is nearly always done so that there is a minimum of two days. I have been involved in a number of bits of legislation that have been done on an accelerated basis, but I have never seen one rammed through in one day like this.
I have never seen a Bill not leave the other place until just before midnight but be on the Order Paper here for all stages the following day. The noble Baroness, Lady Hayter, tabled her Motion—in effect, to take over the procedures of the House to do it in one day—only yesterday. Many noble Lords will not even have seen that until they got today’s papers. This is all highly irregular and is working against the ability of this House to scrutinise this legislation properly.
Lord True
I was not allowed to respond to the debate in which I spoke about this subject. The noble Lords, Lord Empey and Lord Strathclyde, made a sensible and constructive point: instead of trying to push this through it should be remitted to the usual channels. As many noble Lords on all sides have said, we could do this in the normal way for accelerated Bills: a Second Reading now and Committee another day. Why will the Opposition Front Bench not agree to that?
Baroness Noakes
My noble friend makes very good points. I hope that the Front Bench opposite is reflecting on them.
The House is being asked to handle this Bill on a one-day basis and, in effect, tear up the rules under which we normally consider legislation. This has led to a speakers’ list being closed before this business Motion is even finished. This Motion was not available to noble Lords until they came in this morning, so some will not have had the opportunity to put their names down to speak at Second Reading.
Lord Warner
Is the noble Baroness not aware that we have had extensive conversations about this? Yesterday, the House of Commons managed to amend its procedures so that it could complete consideration of the Bill within four hours. They expect us to deal with the Bill with due expedition. The majority of the House of Commons voted for this Bill. We are now getting to the point where this House is being exposed to a filibustering set of manoeuvres by the Conservative Benches.
Baroness Noakes
I remind the noble Lord that it was a majority of one in the other place. I do not think that the other place can be proud of the length of time it devoted to this legislation yesterday. Second Reading was 55 minutes; towards the end speakers were given two minutes; the Secretary of State had a very short time to wind up. That is not a proper way for any chamber to handle legislation. I would not hold it up as an example to this House, which should be doing things properly. We accept that we can have an accelerated procedure.
Baroness Noakes
I am not giving way at the moment. I am going to make some progress if the noble Baroness does not mind.
Baroness Noakes
I have given way many times, so I am not giving way any further. I need to make some progress. I think we can agree that some acceleration is necessary; we have done that in the past and it can be agreed in the usual channels. As a number of noble Lords have said, separating Second Reading from Committee and the remaining stages does at least give us an opportunity to reflect on the points made at Second Reading and to determine sensibly which points should be taken forward to Committee and Report. We are not being given that opportunity: at best we might get a couple of hours between Second Reading and Committee under the proposals of the noble Baroness. So I believe it is unnecessary to apply these exceptional procedures. Indeed, I might even say that it is downright dangerous to do so. That is also why it is undesirable for this House to apply these exceptional procedures.
Baroness Noakes
There are no national security issues. All the examples that have been given of expedited procedures have involved agreement between all parties. The fact that a lot of people in Westminster are very excited about a no-deal Brexit should not be confused with a national crisis. Recent poll evidence shows that the most popular way forward is actually a no-deal exit, and of course it is by no means clear that the Bill actually prevents an exit on WTO terms by tying the Government’s hands in a series of parliamentary procedures on how much time to ask for. It does not do that. The Bill is worthless in that regard and to that extent it does not deserve a place on the—
Baroness Noakes
I am drawing to a close. Anybody can make a comment once I have moved my amendment. I remind the House that my amendment is there because the Prime Minister has already indicated her intention to ask for a delay. It is unnecessary, undesirable and unprecedented to apply exceptional procedures. I beg to move.
Lord Cormack
My Lords, I shall speak very briefly. I really feel that we are not doing this House any great favours today. We have had an orchestrated series of speeches from the ERG and its friends. That does not represent the view of the entire Conservative Party on these Benches, although I am bound to say that, as I listened to some of the speeches, I felt enormous sympathy for my honourable friend Nick Boles. We are at a critical juncture in our nation’s history. It is deeply regrettable that we have this Bill before us. It is not a perfect Bill, but at the time when it was thought up and brought forward the Prime Minister had not made her recent welcome move. I sincerely hope that she will be successful. I know many honourable and noble friends in my party take a counter view, but I think it is desperately important that we hold the interests of our country first, second, third and last.
It is terribly important that we do not carry on with this procedural nonsense, because that is what it is. We have a Bill and at this rate we are not going to get to Second Reading.
Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration
Baroness Noakes Excerpts(5 years, 5 months ago)
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Baroness Noakes (Con)
My Lords, it is always a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Kerr of Kinlochard. He knows that he and I differ considerably in our basic attitudes to Europe, but it may surprise him to find that until he got into the last couple of minutes of his speech, I agreed with practically every word of it.
I voted enthusiastically to leave the EU, which puts me with the majority in the country, although I recognise that in your Lordships’ House I am in the minority. Even if we have a vote at the end of our debate, which I hope we will not, it will have no legal significance. The important Divisions are being taken, quite rightly, in the other place. It was therefore tempting to sit out on the sidelines of this marathon debate. But it will form part of the recorded history of our exit from the EU and I very much want to ensure that the views of the 17.4 million who voted to leave are a full part of our proceedings.
I long to be out of the EU, but not on the terms of this withdrawal agreement. We hand over £39 billion and in return get the prospect of being locked into a relationship with the EU via the backstop, which we can neither influence nor escape from. If there had been any doubt about the legal effect of the agreement, the advice of the Attorney-General released yesterday was devastatingly clear. The Financial Times has reported that neutralising British leverage was one of the main reasons the EU insisted on the binding backstop, and that the Commission believed that it would locate the balance of power with the EU in all later negotiations. I believe that is the correct analysis. We will enter the backstop at the will of the EU and we will stay there until the EU consents to let us go. If we are allowed to go, we will undoubtedly pay a price—and it probably will not stop at fishing rights and Gibraltar. We will have taken back control of very little.
The CJEU creeps into every nook and cranny of the withdrawal agreement and the political declaration. We may have a theoretical ability to negotiate trade deals but a combination of the backstop and uncertainty about the nature of the ongoing trade relationship with the EU means that we have no effective bargaining power. I cannot support the withdrawal agreement, but neither can I support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Basildon. I agree that it will damage the UK, but I believe that exiting without an agreement is an outcome that should now be accepted and prepared for in earnest.
Last week, the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England came out to scare us about how awful it would be if we left on no-deal terms. Ahead of the referendum, they told us how bad it would be if we dared to vote leave. They were wrong then and I have little doubt that they will be wrong again. The Treasury’s central estimate is that if there is no deal, after 15 years and compared with staying in the EU, GDP will be lower by 7.7%. We should be clear that the economy will continue to grow and that GDP per capita will continue to grow; we are talking about only a bit less growth each year. The underlying assumptions, several of which are questionable, would not have to change much to show better results, especially over a timescale as long as 15 years. If a bit of optimism and belief in our future outside the EU, which I certainly have, underpinned some of the assumptions, those forecasts would look very different indeed.
The Bank of England’s offering was intentionally scary. The governor’s language guaranteed that the media headlines were “Worst financial crisis since World War Two” and “economic catastrophe”. Behind the headlines, however, was the truth that the Bank was merely describing scenarios and not balanced appraisals of likely outcomes. The no-deal scenarios were designed to be an extreme test of the banks and the financial system. Those of us involved in financial institutions—I declare my interest as a director of RBS—are very used to the Bank’s regular stress tests. They typically involve stresses of one in 100 or worse and the no-deal ones are in that range. The Bank of England was clear that the banks would withstand the test and continue to support the economy.
The noble Lord, Lord King of Lothbury, as a former Governor of the Bank of England, has expressed his concerns this week. Paul Krugman has challenged the Bank’s methodology and assumptions and said that he was worried about what he called,
“motivated reasoning on the part of people who oppose Brexit for the best of reasons”,
which I think is code for bias. I worry about whether the reputation of a politicised Bank of England can be restored in the future.
I do not doubt that an exit without a deal will mean some short-term disruption, but how much will depend on the extent of co-operation with the EU. It ought to be in our mutual interest to minimise disruption. It is all doable—trains, planes, lorries, goods and people—if there is the will on both sides. Since both we and the EU want a free trade agreement, let us start that negotiation now. The outcome may not be perfect but life is rarely perfect and it will be infinitely preferable to the servitude envisaged in the withdrawal agreement. At least, if we exit on those terms, we can keep the lion’s share of the £39 billion to cushion any downside.