Defence Investment Plan

Baroness Goldie Excerpts

Wednesday 1st July 2026 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for both the briefing and prior sight of the defence investment plan, which he provided to me and my colleague, the noble Earl, Lord Minto, yesterday. I doubt any plan was so dogged by delay and preceded by such drama as this one, but that doleful prelude was eclipsed by the gloom and scepticism that engulfed the plan when it became public. To quote my honourable friend in the other place, Mr James Cartlidge, it is “too little, too late”.

The threat we face is now. This plan, lacking in significant detail, is for the next four years. It was intended to deliver the recommendations in the SDR. It does not. It should have laid out a path to the 3% of GDP needed before the end of this Parliament, never mind during the next one. It does not. As for a path to NATO’s target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035, that apparently remains in the mists of the Prime Minister’s imagination: undiscernible and shortly to disappear.

The Prime Minister criticises the previous Government for not spending enough, but I point out to your Lordships that my party responded to the threat as we understood it then, in the wake of a searing economic challenge inherited from a Labour Government in 2010. However, despite austerity, we kept the RAF Lossiemouth air base open; ordered the vital Poseidon planes that operate from there; ordered eight Type 26 frigates and five Type 31 frigates, which are being built now; launched the Global Combat Air Programme to produce the next-generation fighter; and commissioned the Dreadnought programme to renew our nuclear deterrent. I am not going to speculate on Mr Burnham’s Harry Potter powers to wave a magic wand to fix this deficient defence investment plan. Given his projected political strategy to date, fixing defence is not on any wish list I have seen. However, I know that none of this is the Minister’s making. He is here to answer questions, which I know he will do with his customary loyalty, integrity and courtesy.

I will start with the Secretary of State’s foreword to the plan. If we strip out the roseate language, £298 billion is to be spent over the next four years. Some £283 billion of that is not new money; it is simply what is required to keep the doors open, pay the people turning up and ensure that the day-to-day bills are paid. The crux question is: how much is needed on top of that? The Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, says that £28 billion of additional money is needed over the next four years to do what must be done to keep us safe. My party is prepared to answer that call and fund it by reinstating the two-child benefit cap, reallocating up to £50 billion currently being spent on welfare and costly net-zero projects, and scrapping Labour’s catastrophic Chagos deal. This Government are not prepared to answer that call and will short-change defence by the £13 billion that they were never going to provide. That is completely unacceptable.

The former Secretary of State, John Healey, has said that this plan leaves the country “less safe”. The authors of the strategic defence review have said that the funding package is “not enough”. What will it take for the Government to listen to the service chiefs, the retired senior officers, and indeed members of their own party, and find the money that they all say is needed to keep us safe?

Even the inadequate £15 billion that the Government are going to provide immediately starts to fall apart under scrutiny. We know from the Chancellor that £4.7 billion is not there. According to the accompanying funding explainer, it is to be allocated at the Autumn Budget, presumably by a new Prime Minister and a new and as yet unknown Chancellor.

If this were not bad enough, page 73 of the Defence Investment Plan is revealing. It discloses that £10.7 billion of the £15 billion is to come from “defence efficiencies” over four years. So, as we speak, that money is not there either. This is accountancy smoke and mirrors. On the defence efficiencies, £1.1 billion is to come from “reform and service redesign”—so what reform, what redesign and what details can the Minister provide? Some £3.3 billion is to come through “workforce and resourcing”. What does that mean and what detail is available? Some £2 billion is to come through “infrastructure”. What infrastructure? How is that money to be provided? Some £0.2 billion is to come through “digital”—how? Some £3.7 billion is to come through “acquisition and supply chain”. How has that figure been arrived at, and what underpins that estimate? The more alert among your Lordships will have noticed that that totals £10.3 billion, not the £10.7 billion that is at the head of the defence reform efficiencies. So we have another £400 million whistling into the blue yonder. Separately, the plan also states that £1.1 billion will come from asset sales, so what assets will the Government flog off?

Unless the questions I have posed can be answered, this plan is meaningless. NATO, the MoD, politicians and the public need clarity about how much money is being given, when it is coming and how it is being provided. Smoke and mirrors and Treasury trickery do not cut it.

[Lord Fox (LD)]

My Lords, this is clearly a very delayed and extremely underfunded plan. As we have heard, at £15 billion it falls well short of the £28 billion requested by the defence chief to keep our country secure. But we know that it actually falls even shorter than that, as nearly £5 billion is unfunded and some £11 billion or more relies on undetermined efficiency savings. So, after months of paralysis, resignations and Cabinet chaos, the Government have short-changed the Armed Forces.

However, we should remember that it was the Conservatives who hollowed out our military, leaving the Army and Navy smaller than they had been for hundreds of years. The Tories failed to look after service personnel properly, through a lack of suitable housing and poor mental health support—that was unforgivable.

This Statement is a long way from solving these vital issues and many others. It is a political choice made by Sir Keir Starmer and the Treasury, and it leaves us less safe. Furthermore, it undermines our reputation as a leader in NATO. Last year, all NATO countries pledged substantially to increase investment so that we all hit 3.5% of GDP by 2035. But, even if the missing money is found, the share of GDP that we spend on defence by the end of the decade will be only 2.7%. In media interviews today, the Procurement Minister, Luke Pollard, said that the spending review next year will describe a pathway to 3.5%. That review will need to find an extra £25 billion per year to get to our stated target. Given where we are starting from, this is hardly credible.

This lack of credibility is not just a domestic phenomenon. When I attend NATO Parliamentary Assembly meetings, I can sense the reputation of the UK falling back. This is more than just worrying. So I will suggest some ways to increase investment and leverage what resources we have more effectively. The Liberal Democrats’ plan for defence bonds would provide an additional £20 billion at least, funnelling in private sector investment. This is not pie in the sky. Poland’s armed forces support fund, for example, was established in 2022, with the main source of funds being issuing bonds. For context, last year Poland spent 4.7% of its GDP on defence.

There are better ways of leveraging our existing defence spend. The UK could take part in the nascent defence, security and resilience bank. This ticks a number of important boxes: it would be multilateral; it would work with a greater number of allies; it would help project financing to span election cycles; and it would cost-effectively pull in private finance, multiplying our state investment by many times. The Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is a major proponent of this initiative. He met with Sir Keir’s envoy, Gordon Brown, last month to discuss it but, disappointingly, there seems to have been no progress.

The Government could also take bolder steps towards working with our European allies. Last month, the Lib Dems announced a plan for a UK-EU defence pact, including our intention to join Security Action for Europe—the SAFE programme. Andy Burnham is quoted as having said favourable things about both defence bonds and the DSR bank. He has also been historically in favour of closer relations with the EU. Does the Minister agree that the new Burnham-led Government should issue defence bonds, work with Canada to deliver the DSR and join the SAFE initiative in Europe?

There are also ways of making our spend on big ticket items go a bit further. For example, GCAP currently involves the UK, Japan and Italy. Canada, Saudi and possibly Germany have been mooted as additional partners. Can the Minister confirm that, through adding to the GCAP group, money could be diverted to other UK defence needs?

Much has been made of the headline spend of £5 billion for advanced uncrewed systems over the rest of this Parliament. I am sure this is welcome, as these systems are at the heart of modern warfare. However, to put this into context, the three-year £5 billion investment is only a tiny percentage of the plan’s £298 billion spend over four years.

We welcome the commitment to establish six new energetics factories by 2030. However, the nine-month delay in publishing this spending plan has frozen procurement and put many SMEs in peril. Now that we have a funding plan, how will the Government change the procurement process to give SMEs the certainty to invest and the cash flow to thrive?

Finally, last year’s strategic defence review rightly stated that national resilience cannot be bought with military equipment alone. It stressed the need for a comprehensive national conversation to shift our mindset and prepare the wider British public, local government and business for the hybrid, cyber and non-traditional threats that we already face. This is a whole of society challenge that spans far beyond the MoD, so what concrete progress is the Minister making with his government colleagues to initiate this national conversation?