Defence Investment Plan

Lord Fox Excerpts

Wednesday 1st July 2026 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

My Lords, I thank the Minister for both the briefing and prior sight of the defence investment plan, which he provided to me and my colleague, the noble Earl, Lord Minto, yesterday. I doubt any plan was so dogged by delay and preceded by such drama as this one, but that doleful prelude was eclipsed by the gloom and scepticism that engulfed the plan when it became public. To quote my honourable friend in the other place, Mr James Cartlidge, it is “too little, too late”.

The threat we face is now. This plan, lacking in significant detail, is for the next four years. It was intended to deliver the recommendations in the SDR. It does not. It should have laid out a path to the 3% of GDP needed before the end of this Parliament, never mind during the next one. It does not. As for a path to NATO’s target of 3.5% of GDP by 2035, that apparently remains in the mists of the Prime Minister’s imagination: undiscernible and shortly to disappear.

The Prime Minister criticises the previous Government for not spending enough, but I point out to your Lordships that my party responded to the threat as we understood it then, in the wake of a searing economic challenge inherited from a Labour Government in 2010. However, despite austerity, we kept the RAF Lossiemouth air base open; ordered the vital Poseidon planes that operate from there; ordered eight Type 26 frigates and five Type 31 frigates, which are being built now; launched the Global Combat Air Programme to produce the next-generation fighter; and commissioned the Dreadnought programme to renew our nuclear deterrent. I am not going to speculate on Mr Burnham’s Harry Potter powers to wave a magic wand to fix this deficient defence investment plan. Given his projected political strategy to date, fixing defence is not on any wish list I have seen. However, I know that none of this is the Minister’s making. He is here to answer questions, which I know he will do with his customary loyalty, integrity and courtesy.

I will start with the Secretary of State’s foreword to the plan. If we strip out the roseate language, £298 billion is to be spent over the next four years. Some £283 billion of that is not new money; it is simply what is required to keep the doors open, pay the people turning up and ensure that the day-to-day bills are paid. The crux question is: how much is needed on top of that? The Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Richard Knighton, says that £28 billion of additional money is needed over the next four years to do what must be done to keep us safe. My party is prepared to answer that call and fund it by reinstating the two-child benefit cap, reallocating up to £50 billion currently being spent on welfare and costly net-zero projects, and scrapping Labour’s catastrophic Chagos deal. This Government are not prepared to answer that call and will short-change defence by the £13 billion that they were never going to provide. That is completely unacceptable.

The former Secretary of State, John Healey, has said that this plan leaves the country “less safe”. The authors of the strategic defence review have said that the funding package is “not enough”. What will it take for the Government to listen to the service chiefs, the retired senior officers, and indeed members of their own party, and find the money that they all say is needed to keep us safe?

Even the inadequate £15 billion that the Government are going to provide immediately starts to fall apart under scrutiny. We know from the Chancellor that £4.7 billion is not there. According to the accompanying funding explainer, it is to be allocated at the Autumn Budget, presumably by a new Prime Minister and a new and as yet unknown Chancellor.

If this were not bad enough, page 73 of the Defence Investment Plan is revealing. It discloses that £10.7 billion of the £15 billion is to come from “defence efficiencies” over four years. So, as we speak, that money is not there either. This is accountancy smoke and mirrors. On the defence efficiencies, £1.1 billion is to come from “reform and service redesign”—so what reform, what redesign and what details can the Minister provide? Some £3.3 billion is to come through “workforce and resourcing”. What does that mean and what detail is available? Some £2 billion is to come through “infrastructure”. What infrastructure? How is that money to be provided? Some £0.2 billion is to come through “digital”—how? Some £3.7 billion is to come through “acquisition and supply chain”. How has that figure been arrived at, and what underpins that estimate? The more alert among your Lordships will have noticed that that totals £10.3 billion, not the £10.7 billion that is at the head of the defence reform efficiencies. So we have another £400 million whistling into the blue yonder. Separately, the plan also states that £1.1 billion will come from asset sales, so what assets will the Government flog off?

Unless the questions I have posed can be answered, this plan is meaningless. NATO, the MoD, politicians and the public need clarity about how much money is being given, when it is coming and how it is being provided. Smoke and mirrors and Treasury trickery do not cut it.

[Lord Fox (LD)]

My Lords, this is clearly a very delayed and extremely underfunded plan. As we have heard, at £15 billion it falls well short of the £28 billion requested by the defence chief to keep our country secure. But we know that it actually falls even shorter than that, as nearly £5 billion is unfunded and some £11 billion or more relies on undetermined efficiency savings. So, after months of paralysis, resignations and Cabinet chaos, the Government have short-changed the Armed Forces.

However, we should remember that it was the Conservatives who hollowed out our military, leaving the Army and Navy smaller than they had been for hundreds of years. The Tories failed to look after service personnel properly, through a lack of suitable housing and poor mental health support—that was unforgivable.

This Statement is a long way from solving these vital issues and many others. It is a political choice made by Sir Keir Starmer and the Treasury, and it leaves us less safe. Furthermore, it undermines our reputation as a leader in NATO. Last year, all NATO countries pledged substantially to increase investment so that we all hit 3.5% of GDP by 2035. But, even if the missing money is found, the share of GDP that we spend on defence by the end of the decade will be only 2.7%. In media interviews today, the Procurement Minister, Luke Pollard, said that the spending review next year will describe a pathway to 3.5%. That review will need to find an extra £25 billion per year to get to our stated target. Given where we are starting from, this is hardly credible.

This lack of credibility is not just a domestic phenomenon. When I attend NATO Parliamentary Assembly meetings, I can sense the reputation of the UK falling back. This is more than just worrying. So I will suggest some ways to increase investment and leverage what resources we have more effectively. The Liberal Democrats’ plan for defence bonds would provide an additional £20 billion at least, funnelling in private sector investment. This is not pie in the sky. Poland’s armed forces support fund, for example, was established in 2022, with the main source of funds being issuing bonds. For context, last year Poland spent 4.7% of its GDP on defence.

There are better ways of leveraging our existing defence spend. The UK could take part in the nascent defence, security and resilience bank. This ticks a number of important boxes: it would be multilateral; it would work with a greater number of allies; it would help project financing to span election cycles; and it would cost-effectively pull in private finance, multiplying our state investment by many times. The Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, is a major proponent of this initiative. He met with Sir Keir’s envoy, Gordon Brown, last month to discuss it but, disappointingly, there seems to have been no progress.

The Government could also take bolder steps towards working with our European allies. Last month, the Lib Dems announced a plan for a UK-EU defence pact, including our intention to join Security Action for Europe—the SAFE programme. Andy Burnham is quoted as having said favourable things about both defence bonds and the DSR bank. He has also been historically in favour of closer relations with the EU. Does the Minister agree that the new Burnham-led Government should issue defence bonds, work with Canada to deliver the DSR and join the SAFE initiative in Europe?

There are also ways of making our spend on big ticket items go a bit further. For example, GCAP currently involves the UK, Japan and Italy. Canada, Saudi and possibly Germany have been mooted as additional partners. Can the Minister confirm that, through adding to the GCAP group, money could be diverted to other UK defence needs?

Much has been made of the headline spend of £5 billion for advanced uncrewed systems over the rest of this Parliament. I am sure this is welcome, as these systems are at the heart of modern warfare. However, to put this into context, the three-year £5 billion investment is only a tiny percentage of the plan’s £298 billion spend over four years.

We welcome the commitment to establish six new energetics factories by 2030. However, the nine-month delay in publishing this spending plan has frozen procurement and put many SMEs in peril. Now that we have a funding plan, how will the Government change the procurement process to give SMEs the certainty to invest and the cash flow to thrive?

Finally, last year’s strategic defence review rightly stated that national resilience cannot be bought with military equipment alone. It stressed the need for a comprehensive national conversation to shift our mindset and prepare the wider British public, local government and business for the hybrid, cyber and non-traditional threats that we already face. This is a whole of society challenge that spans far beyond the MoD, so what concrete progress is the Minister making with his government colleagues to initiate this national conversation?

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Coaker) (Lab)]

I thank the noble Lord, Lord Fox, and the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, for their contributions and important questions.

I will start by dealing with the question of spending, which goes to the heart of what both noble Lords were saying. Let me put on record some of the things that were said about the defence investment plan. I will make only one political point—that there will be a 27% real-terms increase in defence spending between 2023-24 and 2029-30—because all of us have at heart the security and defence of our nation and how best we should do this.

As both noble Lords and the House will know, the Government have set out plans for an agreed £15 billion increase in spending. This is outside the normal spending review process. That is not necessarily the way that Governments normally do things, but I gently remind the noble Baroness that it is not unheard of for Governments to take action outside the new spending process and to refer to the next Budget as the place where the detail will be confirmed. Indeed, the previous Government announced their five-year NHS plan in 2018 outside the Budget and the spending review. What did they say when challenged about it? I think the noble Baroness and the noble Lord, Lord Fox, will know: “We will be able to explain exactly where every penny is coming from, but we will do it in the next Budget”.

I will also refer to when the Conservatives published the integrated defence review in 2020. What did they do? They said that they would set out the funding at the next spending review. So, let us drop the idea that this is an abnormal process. It is important that the Government have taken the decision outside the spending the review to reprioritise and reallocate spending between spending reviews.

We have said that we will lay out the process for the 3% in the next Parliament. We will come back to the 3% and, indeed, the 3.5% at the next spending review, which will be next year. That is not an abnormal process; that process of taking action outside the spending review is one that Governments have taken over the past few Parliaments. That is an important point to make. Indeed, the foreword by the Secretary of State refers to the commitment until 2035 as a “promise”. It is laid out in there. He and I would expect all of us to be held to account with respect to that.

The noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, and the noble Lord, Lord Fox, mentioned defence savings. I will be clear about the efficiencies, or the savings—whatever we want to call it. The allegation seems to be that the efficiencies are to be taken out of the spending power that the department would have. To be clear, the increase in our spending power is not conditional on these efficiency savings. That is a really important statement for us to make. Who would expect the Treasury, under any political party, not to require a department to have some sort of target for tackling fraud? Who would not see the use of increased efficiency through the use of AI or better technology as bringing about savings that could be reinvested? Who would not expect the Treasury to say, “We would wish you to find efficiencies through an increased reliance on consultancy”? Who would not expect efficiencies to be dealt with? Many noble Lords opposite have called on me in the past to find a way to make sure that we have the most efficient use of the workforce that we have.

The noble Lord, Lord Fox, asked me about housing. Over the next 10 years, the Government, having spent nearly £6 billion to bring Annington Homes back into public ownership, will spend nearly £9 billion over the next 10 years on improving military housing. That is hugely significant.

The noble Lord, Lord Fox, mentioned reputation. I often say that this country faces challenges, but the idea that this country is not respected in Europe or across the globe is not true. In fact, this country is hugely respected in Europe and across the globe. Do not take my word for it: read what the Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, said about the defence investment plan. He welcomed it; noble Lords can read that in today’s and yesterday’s papers.

With respect to the important contribution that we make to NATO—I do not want to risk the ire of the noble Baroness, Lady Bennett—I just remind everyone that one of the most important contributions that our country makes is through the nuclear deterrent. That is a huge contribution that we make to the security of NATO and of Europe, and to our defence.

On GCAP, of course there is always a need to look at new partners. A few weeks ago, the noble Lord, Lord Fox, and many other noble Lords questioned whether GCAP would actually be in the document. Now the accusation is that we are spending it too late—it is over £8 billion-worth of money—and that it is not being spent quickly enough. A huge amount of money has gone into GCAP. Of course the Government will negotiate on new partners, but that has to be agreed not only with us but with Italy and Japan. That is important for us as well.

There is a whole section on SMEs in the defence investment plan; it is not only on the big primes but on the SMEs. I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Goldie, that all the chiefs are content with the defence investment plan and have been involved in bringing it forward.

A number of noble Lords asked me about private finance initiatives and how we can bring that on board. I know that the Government are looking at the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank and whether that is a good way forward rather than necessarily defence bonds, which count as borrowing. No decisions have been taken about that, but we are of course looking at alternative ways of bringing that in. I say to the noble Lord that we tried very hard to get into SAFE, but we failed—we could not get into it. So it is not a question of trying to get into it; we tried and we will try again, but we were not successful. But in the meantime, the country will obviously continue to do what it can to build up its own defences.

The defence investment plan is a huge contribution to the defence of this country. It points to a way forward, it is transformative and it improves our readiness. For any investment plan brought before this House and indeed this country, that is quite an important statement of where we are.