The Economy

Alun Cairns Excerpts

Wednesday 22nd June 2011 Commons Chamber

[Mr Wright]

I hope that the hon. Lady, who has not listened to the rest of the debate, will take into account the conclusion drawn by the manager of the largest bond fund company in the world. He stated that the budget reforms

“are long-term requirements for a stable and healthy economy, but the move towards it, in fact, if implemented too quickly, could stultify economic growth.”

That seems an eminently sensible conclusion.

[Alun Cairns (Vale of Glamorgan) (Con)]

Why should we accept the hon. Gentleman’s version of events when the OECD, the CBI, the Institute of Directors and the Federation of Small Businesses are calling for fiscal tightening in order to ensure the stability in the economy necessary to provide growth, as is happening?

[Mr Wright]

The growth projections are falling rapidly, and have been downcast three times. When I speak to my constituents and businesses in Hartlepool, they are concerned about a lack of confidence and a lack of investment in the future of this country that will undermine our long-term ability to fight the global downturn.

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[Mr Robinson]

All we know at the moment is what has happened and many forward-looking forecasts are no better than those of the OBR, which was set up by the Government to provide a so-called independent forecast. Let us be clear that we welcomed and accepted that. All we can look at is what has been achieved; we will come on to the forecasts in a few moments. If we show a moment’s hesitation or doubt about them, I hope that Government Members will understand why. I followed the first 10 years of the Labour Government very closely, and I do not think that we ever had to revise any forecast three times in a matter of six months. If we do not listen to the forecasts and do not treat them as if they had already been achieved, I hope that the hon. Gentleman will understand why.

There are some things we can welcome. We can welcome the good effort in job creation in the private sector. According to the Chancellor this afternoon, that means 520,000 jobs, so let us welcome that. The trouble is, however, that the OBR says—this is the bible we have to go by—that before the end of this Parliament, 200,000 more people are going to be unemployed than it originally thought. We have 520,000 on the one hand and 200,000 more on the other. There is always a negative balancing out the positive in all these areas. If we take inflation, for example, it has gone through the roof at 4.5%. Manufacturing output has been a good effort up until the last quarter, but it is now down again. It is not surprising that an intake of jobs in the private manufacturing sector has supported that output, built on the back of the previous Government’s policies. [Interruption.] No, they do not like to hear it, but it is a fact. Why did more than two thirds of the private sector increase in employment take place before the spending round announcement? It happened on the back of the reflationary policies of the previous Labour Government.

[Alun Cairns]

rose—

[Mr Robinson]

I will give way in a few moments.

Those are the facts and that is the situation. If we look at the balance sheet of the Government’s economic policy in its first year, we see that even in the two areas where the Government had until recently done relatively well, the signs are now bad, so I find it hard to believe that there are any factual or objective grounds for thinking that they have done well overall or that their policies are going to work. The Chancellor continues to say that the plan is working, but all he is really saying is that he is retaining the support of those he set out to gain support from in the first place by adopting an essentially old-fashioned, deflationary bankers’ policy of cutting demand in the economy. That is what he set out to do and that is what he is doing. The prospects of it succeeding are poor.

[Alun Cairns]

rose—

[Mr Robinson]

I will take the intervention later, if I may.

We are now at the stage where we have to make up our minds whether the Government’s economic policies are going to work or not. In a very good article published in today’s edition of The Guardian, Robert Skidelsky argues that the choice between the two economic policies has to be made by anyone wanting to make a serious stand on these issues. He says that the theories or sets of policies have been set out by all the famous, much-lauded figures in the Bank of England, the International Monetary Fund and all the rest of them. If we are dealing with what economists think—it is not the only thing that matters—we should also mention people like Stiglitz and Krugman who say that the policy is wrong.

If we look at the history, we find that it tends to be the people who are not part of the conventional wisdom or not part of the establishment, so to speak, who get it right and that the establishment nearly always gets it wrong. There is no attempt to get out of the box into which the Government have so constrained their policies—they like it and feel it is their comfort zone. I am talking about bankers and international organisations that are intent on deflation, which they are inflicting in the present crucifixion of the Greek economy—where they effectively continue to throw good money into failed policies.

Let me briefly read from the article:

“The Keynesians…among whom I number myself”—

and I am happy to be there, too—

“will have to eat their words if growth picks up and unemployment falls in the next 12 months”.

That is to say, if the Government’s policy comes right, the debt falls and deficit crisis is met, we could then celebrate the success of the policy. On the other hand, it might not work—and it is time for Members to decide where they stand on this. I happen to believe that there is no evidence to suppose that it will, much as I would like it to work: it will not work; it never has worked in history. It is not working in Greece or in Ireland. Greece has had two further doses of deflation and two goes at decreasing VAT, and it is still not working. It is getting worse, because they are not dealing with the root of the problem, as the shadow Chancellor made clear in his speech.

What could be done? Given that the Government will not want to change their policy, they have only one way out: another heavy incidence of quantitative easing. This time, the Government will have to stand up to the Bank of England for once in their life, and say, “We want this money to be put to productive ends.” We create the money, but nobody knows where it goes, except to make bankers’ profits in overseas investment markets. The Government should say, “We want the money to be made available through a bank”—such as the green investment bank, which could be much expanded—“to the British economy for, above all, investment in small and medium-sized enterprises.” The argument from the Governor of the Bank of England will be, “We can’t distort capital markets, you know. This is interfering in the market.” Of course it is; it is an attempt to avert the wastefulness that we have seen from so many of the policies so far.

Where should that money be channelled? In a very good contribution earlier, my right hon. Friend the Member for Greenwich and Woolwich (Mr Raynsford) said that the housing market is dead on its feet at the moment. The new housing market is, I think, at an all-time low. The money, therefore, should go into housing, and into transport, which is desperate not for HS2 but for sensible things such as the four-tracking of the line between Coventry and Birmingham, about which I know something, and at other points such as in Wales. The other good thing would be that the railway policy could be executed much more quickly and fully.

Will the Government change course? No. Will their policy work? No. Are there alternatives? Yes. I understand why they do not want to touch VAT, but they could at least get the Governor of the Bank of England to do quantitative easing of a large scale, £200 billion, and ensure that, instead of being dissipated into overseas markets, a good part of that money is used for the productive sectors of the British economy. That would make a big difference and be a start to the change of policy that we need from the Government.

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[Owen Smith (Pontypridd) (Lab)]

We have heard a lot today about learning the lessons of history, but what we heard from the hon. Member for Stourbridge (Margot James) shows that the Government clearly have not learned the lessons of their own history. In the last years of the Labour Government, we listened to the Conservative party talk about wanting more deregulation and complain that we were over-regulating. We concede now that we were not regulating the banking sector as vigorously as we should have done, yet still we hear calls for further deregulation. That is a lesson that Conservative Members really ought to learn.

Equally, Conservative Members ought to look much closer, and with a far less jaundiced and more objective eye, at the Government’s past year of performance. Any objective reading, any audit of how they have performed economically, must tell them, as it tells us, that it has been a disastrous year. Unemployment is higher by 1.5%, inflation is higher by 1.6%, output is down by 0.7% and manufacturing, which went up for a period as there was restocking and which boomed partly because of big deflation in the value of the pound, has now ground to a halt. We are not seeing a manufacturing-led recovery. Critically, growth, the key driver of our economy, is flat, non-existent, zero.

[Alun Cairns]

The hon. Gentleman focuses on manufacturing, but how does he contrast performance over the past 12 months with that over the previous 12 years, when manufacturing in Wales in particular, and in the west midlands, fell dramatically from representing close to a third of the economy to nearer 20%?

[Owen Smith]

I answer candidly that we have already said that we need a rebalancing of our economy. On both sides of the House, there was far too great an emphasis on the belief that we were in a post-industrial society and manufacturing was not an important part of the mix. We have learned the lessons, as I hope Government Members have. I hope that there will therefore be an active industrial policy from the Government, like the one that the Opposition are talking about. That is the only way in which we will improve manufacturing.

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[Alun Cairns]

The hon. Gentleman talks about the number of people looking for jobs in his constituency this year compared with last. What would he say to the Welsh Government about that, and what is their responsibility for it? They have contributed to the greatest decline in Welsh gross domestic product over the past 12 years, making Wales the poorest part of the UK, which it was not previously.

[Mr Deputy Speaker (Mr Nigel Evans)]

Order. Before the hon. Member for Pontypridd (Owen Smith) answers that intervention, I ask hon. Members please to keep interventions very short, because a lot of hon. Members wish to speak.

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[Chris Evans (Islwyn) (Lab/Co-op)]

It is always a pleasure to follow the hon. Member for Gloucester (Richard Graham), whose constituency always brings back happy memories for me—we like to visit friends there.

One thing that I have noticed in this debate is that there has been a lot of rewriting of history on the Government Benches. Straight away, all we have heard is, “Labour got it wrong in 13 years of government.” Well, if Labour got it wrong, why were those who are now on the Government Benches so quiet? We did not hear a word. We did not hear them say anything. In fact, in September 2007, a month before Northern Rock went down the plughole, the then shadow Chancellor said, “We’re going to follow Labour’s spending commitments for the next few years.”

[Alun Cairns]

rose—

[Chris Evans]

A voice from Wales. I hope that it is sensible.

[Alun Cairns]

I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for giving way, but the conclusion that Labour got it wrong was demonstrated 12 months ago in the last general election.

[Chris Evans]

Why did I bother giving way? That is another complacent attitude.

When the Government talk about deficit denial, they miss the point completely. There seem to be two theories. If we follow the Chancellor’s logic, cutting the deficit by £112 billion will encourage the private sector to create jobs. The private sector is going to come to the rescue and all those people who worked in the public sector will get jobs in the private sector. Wonderful—if it works. The other theory is that the Chancellor’s taking £112 billion out of the economy is doing nothing for consumer confidence. When I talk to the shopkeepers on the high street in Blackwood, they say, “The cuts haven’t even bitten yet, Mr Evans, but we are already feeling the pinch.” I am worried about that.

We talk about short-termism, and there seems to be no realisation that the policies to cut the deficit that we put in place today will have ramifications down the generations. There has been a lot of talk about the ’80s. I know that Conservative Members like to worship at the altar of Baroness Thatcher, but when I say that name to anyone in the valleys, they think of two things: fear and hurt. We have had problems with Scottish Power putting its prices up, affecting the most vulnerable in society, but we could do absolutely nothing about it because everything was sold for short-term gain. In 1992, I remember talking to a friend down the pub, and he was in tears. He had gone for a job as a grass cutter and when I asked him what was wrong, he told me that he had not got the job because there had been 60 applicants. “I’m not good enough to cut grass”, he said.

Now, those people have children of their own, and they are worried, too. Figures released in June show that one third of jobseeker’s allowance claimants in my constituency are young people under the age of 24, and I am seriously worried that we are going to have another lost generation. People talk about all this anger against the Labour party, but the only anger I have heard is against the banks. Privately, those on the Government Benches will admit that it was the bankers who did it, but for reasons of political point scoring and advantage, they would rather say that it was the Labour Government who did it—[Interruption.] That is the truth.