AUKUS

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Grand Committee

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, the world has changed and it should now be defined more globally. We are approaching a crossroads and, as with the last Cold War, two well-defined camps are emerging. There was a “never again” collective relief last time around; however, a new extended cold war now appears inevitable. Deterrence, though, might become essential. This makes AUKUS timely, but it should be seen as a building block. No single alliance is what is required, but rather a multiple.

We and the European Union, together with those with similar values, must become more brutal in our mindset and prepare in haste for a series of defence and security hubs to act for the common good. With nuclear proliferation and the fear of using those arms potentially dissipating—I come from a school of thought subscribing to the view that nuclear arms are more a form of blackmail—and with the current make-up of the UN Security Council not allowing it to do what it was constructed to do, there is an immediate need for NATO and Five Eyes collectively to create a tight command structure to thwart those who wish us ill. EU and US leaders present and future, together, I suggest, with the inclusion of Canada in the Five Eyes network, should collectively see this as a priority, with the clear participation of India to be encouraged in one form or another.

The adage “Out of area, out of business” has relevance now, as it did when a past NATO Secretary-General observed succinctly the West’s necessity

“to deal collectively with the multiplying threats and instabilities of this new era”.

Sanity and pragmatism are critical for these new times. Sabre-rattling should not automatically be perceived as a slow drumbeat to war, however; only strength will ensure a safer and more coherent world.

I conclude with three observations. First, China has a longer-term play than being a participant in war; secondly, beware Russia and the GIUK gap, which, together with the Arctic northern sea route, can play a strategic and deceptive role; thirdly but importantly, we should urgently build the network and invest in those countries with which we and others have had an historical association. Failure to do so makes them a soft target.