Artificial Intelligence in Weapon Systems Committee Report

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Friday 19th April 2024 Lords Chamber

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, “proceed with caution” is for an ideal world, but with warfare on the horizon, it is important to move on from abstract and procedural. With the world headed into a dark place, the geopolitical implications of autonomous weapon systems in modern warfare are immeasurable and will require crucial global diplomacy.

The race for AI supremacy and the increased speed of warfare with first-mover advantage, armed with automated systems, drones and predictive analytics, have implications for the balance of military power between states, even transcending national states, with a far-ranging impact on global peace. Non-state actors that also have access, by one means or another, to this advanced technology will have to be added into the conundrum.

Weapon systems that involve no human oversight present challenges but also opportunities beyond ethical questions. They will test democracy and geopolitics and will change the nature of warfare, in that placing human soldiers in harm’s way will become untenable. Autonomous unmanned underwater, surface and air weaponry can also be set to perform the same tasks of automatically engaging incoming missiles. This becomes machine-speed warfare, with humans no longer the central lethal force in the battlefield.

This is closer than many anticipate. Defensive and offensive AI-controlled fighter jets will become smaller, far faster and more manoeuvrable, and will be able to operate in swarms. Predicting intelligence behaviour with the deployment of kinetic forces against a third party that is not human will accelerate, with the rights norms to proportionate military response in effect no longer applicable.

At state level, therefore, countries should work to establish conventions in which the use of lethal force or nuclear is always subject to human command and control mechanisms, never automated, with emergency communication trip-wire channels or early warning system activates established. As immediate retaliatory responses may no longer be legally or morally justified, the historic conventions of war will require revision, with alternate arbitration systems devised at UN Security Council level.

I have three conjectural questions in conclusion. If an AI system were to physically operate on a human, to what extent should its algorithmic programming be open to public due diligence? Who would be liable in the case of misuse when human oversight is required? How do we counter the spatial distance of a development team at the far end of the world from unethical behaviour, making accountability impractical?

It would be amiss of me to end by not thanking the noble Lord, Lord Lisvane, and his committee.

AUKUS

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Thursday 29th February 2024 Grand Committee

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, the world has changed and it should now be defined more globally. We are approaching a crossroads and, as with the last Cold War, two well-defined camps are emerging. There was a “never again” collective relief last time around; however, a new extended cold war now appears inevitable. Deterrence, though, might become essential. This makes AUKUS timely, but it should be seen as a building block. No single alliance is what is required, but rather a multiple.

We and the European Union, together with those with similar values, must become more brutal in our mindset and prepare in haste for a series of defence and security hubs to act for the common good. With nuclear proliferation and the fear of using those arms potentially dissipating—I come from a school of thought subscribing to the view that nuclear arms are more a form of blackmail—and with the current make-up of the UN Security Council not allowing it to do what it was constructed to do, there is an immediate need for NATO and Five Eyes collectively to create a tight command structure to thwart those who wish us ill. EU and US leaders present and future, together, I suggest, with the inclusion of Canada in the Five Eyes network, should collectively see this as a priority, with the clear participation of India to be encouraged in one form or another.

The adage “Out of area, out of business” has relevance now, as it did when a past NATO Secretary-General observed succinctly the West’s necessity

“to deal collectively with the multiplying threats and instabilities of this new era”.

Sanity and pragmatism are critical for these new times. Sabre-rattling should not automatically be perceived as a slow drumbeat to war, however; only strength will ensure a safer and more coherent world.

I conclude with three observations. First, China has a longer-term play than being a participant in war; secondly, beware Russia and the GIUK gap, which, together with the Arctic northern sea route, can play a strategic and deceptive role; thirdly but importantly, we should urgently build the network and invest in those countries with which we and others have had an historical association. Failure to do so makes them a soft target.

Iran: Military Power

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Tuesday 20th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, we recently took action against a number of different organisations which have been acting malignly within and against this country. So this is certainly something that is very closely watched.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, in all probability we are entering a new, extended cold war to counter a global balance of power. What comprehensive and credible policy and deterrence against irregular warfare is being established to deter proxy wars and to protect ourselves from international terrorism, beyond the imperative to invest in defence and engage more in international diplomacy? That last point is one that the Minister has just made.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

The noble Viscount has made the point for me. Diplomatic routes must be kept open at all times, because that is what will solve it. We have sufficient force in the area on an international basis to provide the deterrent that is required. We are taking action on any form of nuclear threat or proliferation, and the sanctions that are in place are severely restricting, as much as we can, the availability of equipment to that particular Government. There are others, with whom they are working, who are specifically working against us. This is something that we need to focus on very seriously. As the Question from the noble Lord, Lord Browne, rightly raises, it is one of the most serious threats that the world—particularly the western world—is facing today.

Red Sea Update

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 5th February 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I thank the noble Baroness for her views. On the question of hyperbole, personally, I try never to use hyperbole. There is nowhere that you can go from hyperbole, so I tried to avoid it.

On the question of diminishing the Houthis’ ability to strike, we have seen that this has been to some extent successful. Certainly, the frequency of the strikes has reduced; the ferocity of strikes and the number of drones and missiles that they have been firing towards international shipping has also reduced.

I take the point about when freedom of navigation may have been enshrined in some form of law, but it has long been accepted that the freedom of the seas and the ability to trade from one country to the other are absolutely critical.

On the diplomatic efforts, I entirely agree. Military action is unlikely to achieve our aims. That is always the case with anything like this. But it provides a level of commitment and gravitas which, I hope, makes any aggressor realise that there must be another way out. We have increased our diplomatic engagement, with the Foreign Secretary going again, having met his Iranian counterpart last week. We apply pressure not just bilaterally but through forums such as the United Nations, and that sort of thing. So there is a very broad diplomatic approach to trying to finish this matter.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, if I understood him correctly, the Minister suggested that rust is a regular occurrence. If that is the case and propeller rust is a regular occurrence—and I do not profess in any way to be a specialist—why not set up a rotational or regular change to ensure constant readiness? That is something he may wish to take away for the future.

The Minister intimated, I think, that that it is up to any new participant to determine their activities in the arrangements with the Houthis. Where is the command centre and who is running it?

Securing sea routes to ensure safe passage for supply chains is paramount. While Djibouti is a haven for French and US assets, what consideration has there been of extending outreach in a winning combination of the two, utilising the port of Berbera in Somaliland? Am I right in thinking that the Chinese are considering investing in the management of that port? Is the Minister considering setting up discussions with the Chinese interests to set out a beneficial rulebook as to how we can avail ourselves of that port for our own affairs as well?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

My Lords, on the question of rust, I imagine that the noble Viscount is talking about aircraft carriers. I am not certain that one should necessarily believe all the headlines that one reads, but it is certainly something that is being looked at. As I said earlier, we are very lucky that we have another one, so there will be no reduction in commitment or effort.

As to who is leading, this is a US-led coalition. Clearly, the US relies very heavily on its allies and each party, each country, is obviously providing a level it feels comfortable with, but it is definitely a US-led coalition.

The point about supply chains is extremely well made. This situation is potentially so damaging to the world’s trade—and it must be damaging the Chinese more than anyone, I would have thought—that there will definitely be countries and groups of countries that will look very carefully at where we could get bases from. Of course, we have a very successful base in Cyprus, and the Chinese are all over the east coast of Africa as we know, but the point is well made.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I entirely agree. Any way that one can starve any of these sorts of organisations with access to funds should be pursued with absolute vigour.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, some time ago, I proposed to the Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Ahmad, that Somaliland be recognised. He suggested, if I remember correctly, that it is for the UN to determine this. Nevertheless, I think that there should be a lead from the UK in suggesting that Somaliland be recognised in its own right. For example, it shares the SOM designation with Somalia, so Somaliland being its own entity would probably be beneficial all round. Does the Minister agree?

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I will certainly take that up with my colleague, my noble friend Lord Ahmad.

Defence: Type 45 Destroyers

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 10th October 2022 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

Of course, implicit in my answer is that before 2028 we hope to have the ships returning to full working order. As the noble Lord is aware, “Defender” is currently conducting operations and defence engagement in the Mediterranean. We very much hope that the drumbeat of progress on restoring the propulsion system will continue. As the noble and gallant Lord said, these are very important ships. They are hugely capable and much admired across the world, and this improvement of the propulsion system is making them more resilient, adding to their admirable capability.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, given that India and the UK are currently negotiating a trade agreement, given that the Indians are considering moving procurement away from Russia to the United Kingdom, and given that India has recently launched an aircraft carrier of its own from Kochi, is it under any thought at the Ministry of Defence to outsource the production of ships to the Indians for various reasons, not least speed of production and cost?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

As the noble Viscount will be aware from the refreshed national shipbuilding strategy, which is one of the most exciting developments we have seen for shipbuilding in the UK, there is a desire to nourish, nurture, sustain and fortify our indigenous shipbuilding industry. We are very anxious to do that, but we have never closed our minds to procuring elsewhere if that is what is required in the best interests of the country. At the end of the day, the shipbuilding strategy covers commercial activity, not just MoD activity.

Ukraine Update

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Thursday 10th March 2022 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

As the noble Lord will be aware, the United Kingdom Government have been approaching this crisis at the global level with other NATO member states. We have been doing that to try to provide a concerted and properly thought-through response to this crisis. Member states, including the United Kingdom, have behaved responsibly and effectively, and have shown shrewdness in assessing what is possible and what is not. I commend their collective judgment on the matter.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, I am sure the Minister will correct me if I am wrong but I believe that issues relating to Ukraine being involved with NATO membership are actually contained in its constitution. That would need to be changed, and it cannot be changed until there is peace.

Grave situations require disconcerting questions. Red lines have been mentioned. Do HMG have red lines in the event of Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine? What is HMG’s assessment, analysis and response to reports that Russian mercenary groups are being deployed in Ukraine, including but not limited to Wagner Group and related organisational offshoots, including foreign fighters from Syria? When are we going to call enough as being enough? Finally, what can be done to cut through the fog of disinformation for the people of Russia so that they know what is being conducted by Russia in their name?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

To pick up the point about disinformation, as I briefly alluded to in reply to my noble friend Lady Meyer, we are taking steps. We try to find channels of communication into Russia, whether through social media or whatever, to relay the facts of what is happening in Ukraine. We hope that some of that information is now getting into Russia and being disseminated.

As to what we do if the conflict escalates, we constantly —again, in conjunction with our NATO allies—appraise and assess what is happening and then, after discussion, conceive the appropriate response to it. That is what we have been doing and shall continue to do.

Army Restructuring: Future Soldier

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Thursday 25th November 2021 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I can see that the noble Lord is not filled with festive enthusiasm for the Statement. I disagree with his assessment; I think that being a global power is not about chest-beating or trying to talk big and look big. Being a global power is about trying to make sure that, where you can work with allies and partners who share the same values, then, together on a global basis, you can influence agendas and bring support to where it may be required.

The noble Lord said that he thought we had one aircraft carrier. I am pleased to inform him that we in fact have two. I am also pleased to inform him that Carrier Strike Group 21, which has been operating over the last few months, most recently in south-east Asia and the Indo-Pacific, has proved an amazingly effective convening power. I can tell the noble Lord at first hand that the interest of other powers in what we have been doing has been extraordinary. They want to understand what we are doing, they want to visit and be on the carrier, and they want to be part of that activity. It is not about going around the world threatening people; it is simply making sure that we are a global presence, that we have a convening power and that we can reassure our friends and allies in different parts of the world that we are in the business of wanting to stand with them, shoulder to shoulder, and to support them if they feel in any way intimidated, never mind threatened. That is what we try to do.

The noble Lord suggested that there is a binary choice between having an effective defence capability—which of course is what the Government want and, I would argue, is very much what we do have—and dealing with humanitarian challenges. It is not a binary choice; the obligation of a responsible state is to deal with both. It is in fact our naval and military capabilities that enable us to respond to humanitarian situations. He makes an important point, but I do not think that it is a question of one or the other—you try to address both.

I certainly disagree with his somewhat depressed assessment of where we are. What we are doing with our defence capability in the United Kingdom is positive, strong, necessary, effective and, let me tell him, much admired, not least in NATO. He has a vision of what is meant by the phrase “global power”, but it is not about some Victorian caricature of people strutting around looking self-important; it is being at the cutting-edge of the real-life, 21st-century global existence and trying to be a presence for good within that.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, the future size has been referred to. Keeping the peace necessitates preparing for war, with the potential need for rapid escalation. What consideration has been given by planners to the capability to react on parallel fronts, given that this is a regrettable possibility?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

The noble Viscount raises a good question. I would say that, implicit within the reconfiguration of what we are doing, is the very desire to introduce the flexibility to which he is referring, so that we have the capacity to respond quickly and effectively if a need arises. I think if he looks not just at the size of the Army but at how we now propose to restructure it into, I think, a much more intelligent way to address threat, wherever it is found and in whatever form it manifests itself, he will see that this is a very reassuring way forward to do just that.

France: AUKUS

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Tuesday 19th October 2021 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

This is not opening up a rift in NATO. In fact, AUKUS has reinforced a NATO leaders’ summit decision to place greater emphasis on regional partnerships; and, interestingly, AUKUS reflects the new EU strategy for the Indo-Pacific for south-east Asia. There is a shared commonality of interests when we address threat, and I think I have observed before to the noble Lord that threat does not respect boundaries. So we address threats, France addresses threats and the EU addresses threats. We do it best together, and NATO is pivotal to that. That is acknowledged by all member states.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, the purpose of the AUKUS pact is to ensure stability in Asia-Pacific. What is the strategy in the intervening years, given that the nuclear submarine programme will not be in play until 2040, before which time much can happen? Additionally, has China indicated any conventional or additional proliferation retaliatory measures? Was Five Eyes cited or consulted, as this has national, regional and potentially global security consequences?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

As for the future, the UK will continue to engage with allies and partners regarding the stability of the Indo-Pacific region, whether that is through the FPDA, bilateral relationships or Five Eyes, to mention but a few. With regard to Five Eyes in particular, we are discussing the arrangement with Canada and New Zealand, because Five Eyes is a unique and highly valued partnership.

Military Personnel Overseas: Vaccinations

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Thursday 1st July 2021 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I say to the noble Baroness that it was not a mistake. She will understand that judgments have to be made on these issues. She will also be aware that the unfolding of the vaccination programme was innovatory and new territory for government—indeed, new territory for many countries across the world. As I said to the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, the MoD took a view that it was right to follow the advice of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation that it was preferable to prioritise those in the older age groups and those most at risk, rather than by occupation. However, as I also indicated to her colleague, the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, on occasions we, in fact, vaccinated prior to deployment if there was no opportunity for vaccination during deployment. Specifically, we made sure that regarding our critical outputs, which I have already described, we prioritised vaccination of those groups of persons.

[Viscount Waverley (CB)]

My Lords, while it is not the Minister’s bag, in addition to the question of UK military personnel serving overseas, is she aware what provision has been made for serving diplomats posted overseas, which we should be offering to reciprocate in London anyway?

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

The noble Viscount is absolutely right; it is not my bag and I do not want to get into hot water with my colleagues in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. In fact, from speaking to my defence attaché colleagues in one part of the globe this morning, I understand that our Diplomatic Service has been protected but I hesitate to give any further specific information because I do not possess it. I suggest that the noble Viscount might want to direct his question to my colleague, my noble friend Lord Ahmad.

UN Mission in Mali: Armed Forces Deployment

Viscount Waverley Excerpts

Monday 14th December 2020 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

We take assessment of risk extremely seriously and we will keep mitigation and management of risk under continuous review. On the specific issue of medevac capability, as in all United Nations missions, United Nations member states are relied on to provide the nations’ capabilities, including helicopters and aeromedical evacuation teams for the benefit of all United Nations troops on MINUSMA. The facility is there. It is the collective responsibility of the United Nations to provide that. We constantly assess risk and keep mitigation and management of risk under review.

[Viscount Waverley (CB) [V]]

My Lords, common interest with France, a close ally, is welcome co-operation. The Sahel belt has long been a hotbed of Islamists, separatists and appalling banditry, with recent unrest in Niger and Katsina state in Nigeria, in addition to that in Mali and beyond. The Minister stated that instability could spread but suggested that the United Kingdom’s involvement would be for a limited period. However, will the Government urgently join in planning and implementing a Sahel-wide strategy—[inaudible]—the regional mix of the US and Morocco, having engaged in a major arms deal, together with the just-announced recognition, has the potential to further regional alienation, by some, of Western Sahara—by the US and Morocco.

[Baroness Goldie (Con)]

I slightly missed a bit in the middle of the noble Viscount’s question, but I will try to deal with the overall concept of his question as to what we are doing in the Sahel. Our objectives are to contribute to improving the situation. We recognise a number of different actors already present in the Sahel. We aim to work with them to better deliver for the people of the region. The UK’s deployment to MINUSMA is a vital part of our work in the Sahel to build stability, bolster conflict resolution, improve the humanitarian response and strengthen partnerships between the international community and regional Governments.