Comprehensive Spending Review
Lord Wilson of Sedgefield Excerpts(15 years, 5 months ago)
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Mr Osborne
There are details in the book we have published today, and we will set out more details in the coming days. Also, we are, of course, waiting for Andrew Dilnot’s report into social care. We have tried to address a long-established problem that we are all aware of in our constituencies: the wall that is sometimes there between the health service and the local authority. Given the challenging nature of the settlement, I was conscious that social care might be affected, which is why I found the additional £2 billion for it.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) (Lab)
The Chancellor said in his statement that he would like the country to be able to afford new rolling stock. Can he say what that means for the intercity express programme, considering both that if it does go ahead it will create hundreds of jobs in my constituency and thousands more in the north-east of England, and that no public sector money will be required until after the next election?
Mr Osborne
I am very aware of that project. If the hon. Gentleman will bear with me, the Secretary of State for Transport will make an announcement on it shortly.
Finance Bill
Lord Wilson of Sedgefield Excerpts(15 years, 9 months ago)
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Mr Byrne
Absolutely. Jim O’Neill is a very respected economist, he is chief economist at Goldman Sachs, and his opinion was echoed by the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce. So this is not a narrow perspective from any one particular corner of the business community. This view is widely shared.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) (Lab)
We have to accept that the Prime Minister has kept one promise. He said that the cuts would affect the north-east of England the most, and that has been proved to be true. The Government have cancelled a new hospital, abolished One NorthEast and stopped nearly 100 Building Schools for the Future projects, which would have created many construction jobs in the private sector. Is it not a shame that the Prime Minister did not keep the other promise, which was that cuts would not affect the front line?
Mr Byrne
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. Like so many words that we heard during the election from those now in government, those ones turned out to be rather empty.
Perhaps we would not be quite so worried about what we have heard from the Chief Secretary this afternoon if we did not know that the risk of failure for this Budget was so great. The Office for Budget Responsibility, which is supposed to know, has said that there is just a 40% chance of the Chancellor hitting his growth forecast for next year, yet the VAT increase in the Bill will tax consumption so hard that we will be forced to rely on a history-making burst of exports and business investment. Last week we heard that just once since 1966 have we had the kind of rise in investment and exports on which the Chancellor will be banking in each of the next three years. The House would therefore be right to ask what measures exist in the Finance Bill to help. On close inspection, there appears to be no help at all for exporters, yet the Chancellor needs Britain’s exporters to grow their trade abroad by £100 billion for his plan to come true. That is the equivalent of our trade with America rising threefold, our trade with China rising by 20 times or our trade with India rising by 40 times. It is fair to say that that is not a bet that any of us would take.
Helen Jones
In a moment—I will make a little progress first.
Something interesting is happening on the Government Benches. We used to hear from the Con bit of the Con-Dem alliance simple, open hostility to the public sector and the welfare state. Now, most of them are becoming a little more sophisticated and wrapping it up a little better. The Chancellor says constantly, “The things I’m having to do are dreadful. I don’t really want to make these cuts. However, if I could cut benefits more, it wouldn’t be so bad.” It is an interesting exercise in shifting the blame. The implication is that responsibility lies not with the Government’s decisions, but with those in receipt of benefits.
Phil Wilson
In the March Budget, the then Chancellor offered reform of housing benefit that would have saved about £250 million a year. This Government have brought in cuts of £1.8 billion. That is not reform; it is an ideological cut in welfare, which will hit some of the poorest people in this country. That proves that these are cuts of choice—they did not have to make them to cut the deficit.
Helen Jones
My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and I shall talk about the effect after giving way to the hon. Gentleman.
Phil Wilson
I agree with 100% of what my right hon. Friend is saying. Back in the 1990s, 11% of young people were out of work; in the 1980s, the figure was 12%. As a proportion of the work force, the unemployment rate was much higher than it is now, and 40% of those people had been out of work for 12 months or more. That figure too is much higher than the figure today. In my own constituency the unemployment is just over 1,000, but at the height of the recessions in the 1980s it was 5,500. The main reason for the difference between what we have experienced over the last year and what we experienced then is what the Labour Government did to ensure that ordinary people up and down the country did not suffer.
Mr Lammy
My hon. Friend is absolutely right. That is why Members on the Government Benches should be reminded that employment in my constituency was running at 20% in the recession of the 1980s and at 28% shortly before we cane to power in 1997, and that although my constituency now has the highest unemployment rate in London, it is currently running at 9%. I say “currently” because it will surely rise as a result of this Finance Bill. The consequences—the social consequences —of what we are debating today, and what we will vote on in a few hours’ time, will be so significant that it is hard to put words to them, but they will be real and stark.
Mr Jones
The hon. Gentleman misunderstands. No one is suggesting that we do not need to reduce the debt: the Labour Government did reduce the debt. I know that during the election the stock in-phrase was “Labour didn’t mend the roof while the sun was shining”. Well, I am sorry, but we did. We actually paid off debt. For example, the 3G licences for mobile phones raised in excess of £20 billion, which went directly to paying off debt. However, we are now in danger of doing what happened in the 1980s with the Thatcher Government: borrowing money not to invest, which we were doing, but to pay unemployment and other benefits. The Government are going to slash welfare benefits, exactly as happened in Canada, and blame the poor. It was not the poor, unemployed or disabled in my constituency who got the debt this high; it was the international bankers and the people who are now to be rewarded by the Budget proposals on corporation tax as part of this stimulus.
Phil Wilson
On the 3G licences, is my hon. Friend also aware that we paid back more debt then than all the Governments since 1945 put together?
Mr Jones
Yes, we did, and that was the responsible thing to do. My right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor set out what our Government reductions were going to be.
On the recession, if anyone says we are out of the woods, they should look at the provisional gross domestic product figures: 0.3% growth in the first quarter of this year, and 0.4% growth in the final quarter of 2009. The new Office for Budget Responsibility thinks that the economy will grow by 1.2% in 2010, and by 2.3% in 2011. So the Budget is a great gamble. However, this is not just about what is in the Budget and the Finance Bill, which will take money out of the economy at this crucial time when we need to put money in; the Government are also gambling on the complete and utter nonsense that there are two different economies in the country—the private sector, which is good and which we look up to and say, “It’s a wonderful thing,” and the public sector, which is bad and which we boo whenever we talk about it—and that somehow we can separate the two. I shall return to that point in a minute.
On the proposed deficit reduction, the Government’s fox has been shot by their own Office for Budget Responsibility. Its independent analysis is that Labour’s deficit reduction plan would have more than achieved the target of halving the deficit over four years, from 11.1% in 2009-10 to 5% in 2013-14. The OBR also said that the Labour plan would reduce the structural deficit by nearly three quarters, from 5.2% of GDP in 2010-11 to 1.6% in 2014. The plan as outlined to halve the budget deficit within four years would have met the timetable set out at the recent G20 summit on 27 June 2010. Government Members and commentators say that the previous Government did not have a plan, but they did, and even the Government’s own Office for Budget Responsibility recognise that. That plan, however, is now being crammed into two years, which cannot be done without a cost to jobs.
Mr Jones
My right hon. Friend is right as usual: the Government’s plan has nothing to do with that, but is being used as an excuse for an ideological attack, because what they actually want is a smaller state in this country. I return to the point that the Government’s plan is about saying, “Private sector good; public sector to be sneered at, public sector workers to be denigrated and not valued,” and that if we reduce the size of the state, that will somehow lead to nirvana, at which point we can all go off into the sunset and live happily ever after. However, the Government suddenly announced yesterday that they were basically going to shelve the Building Schools for the Future programme, affecting exactly those jobs that the local construction industry—I met the Civil Engineering Contractors Association a few weeks ago—was relying on to ensure that the recovery continues. Therefore, to argue that we can somehow cut back the public sector without having any effect whatever on the private sector is complete nonsense.
We all know that in regions such as mine in the north-east, as well as those in Northern Ireland and others that have a larger public sector dependency than other areas, the effect of what is outlined in the Budget will be even worse. However, I give hon. Members this warning: we ain’t seen nothing yet, because the Finance Bill will work by salami slicing, which is a technique that the Government are using to slip the news out. The biggest crackdown will come—we all know this—with the public sector spending round in October. That is when the real cuts in both capital budgets and other investments will be made.
Phil Wilson
I thank my hon. Friend for giving way again, and he is absolutely right. The Government have an objective of trying to create a big society, but does he agree that if we continue down this road, what they will produce is a little Britain?
Mr Jones
Yes, they will, and there is something else that they will do. Interestingly, the hon. Member for Ipswich, who made an excellent maiden speech, talked about prison reform, saying things that he really meant, on an issue to which he is committed. However, he will soon be disabused of that, when he finds that the prison reforms being put through the Ministry of Justice have nothing at all to do with the penal system, and everything to do with budget restraint.
As for the other measures , the VAT increase will have a disproportionate effect on my constituents and those in regions such as mine, because it is, in part, one of the poorest communities. As for the Liberal Democrats—we saw a half-hearted attempt earlier to defend the increase in VAT—the measure will indeed affect the poorest.
Capital Gains Tax (Rates)
Lord Wilson of Sedgefield Excerpts(15 years, 9 months ago)
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Mr Darling
What Japan got wrong was snuffing out a recovery at a very early stage and never really getting over it. As the hon. Gentleman knows, the Japanese have had complete stagnation for a long period now. The debt is just going up and up, and understandably they are very concerned about it. The new Prime Minister was the finance Minister until a few weeks ago, and understandably, he has huge problems on his hands.
The tests we need to apply to the Budget relate to growth and jobs, which I remain very concerned about; there is a substantial risk there, and I would like to have heard more said about policies to promote growth so that we do not end up with years of very sluggish growth at best or, even worse, bumping along the bottom for some years.
I have said that one of the tests that needs to be applied to this Budget is its fairness and another relates to the promises made about it before the election. Where better to start, then, than with VAT? During the election there was a lot of discussion about that. The Conservatives, like ourselves, said that they had no plans to raise VAT. I remember having a discussion with the Chancellor when he announced his plans not to go ahead with at least some of the national insurance increases, and he said that he would fund that from efficiency savings. I remember saying that I thought that was highly doubtful, and that they would have to raise money from another big tax. Sure enough, VAT is going up.
Interestingly, for some reason, not much was said about efficiencies yesterday, although they loomed very large during the election. We now know that “no plans” on the Tory side meant exactly what Geoffrey Howe said in 1979 when he said he had “no intention” of doubling VAT. Of course he was factually right, as it only went up from 8% to 15%. It was the same with John Major when he was Prime Minister in 1992, and said he had “no plans” to raise “extra resources from VAT”: of course, VAT went up. Even last year, the Prime Minister said in opposition that putting up VAT was regressive. He said:
“You could try, as you say, put it on VAT, sales tax, but again if you look at the effect of sales tax, it's very regressive, it hits the poorest the hardest. It does, I absolutely promise you.”
I assume he was not absolutely promising to do that, but was trying to point out to the questioner that he thought that VAT was regressive. Yet here we have it—VAT going up to 20%, as I always suspected would happen.
What I find even more curious is how on earth the Business Secretary can back this proposal. He cannot have been unaware of the Liberal campaign which spent two days dealing with the “Tory VAT bombshell”. We saw the posters all over the country. They said a Tory Government would come up with “a secret VAT bombshell”, but the only secret appears to be that the Liberals intended to vote for it when it was introduced. The hon. Member for Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Simon Hughes), who is no longer in his place, said last week that he thought VAT was
“the most regressive form of tax”
in that it “penalises the poor”. When the Business Secretary said during the election that he would
“hardwire fairness back into national life”,
did he have this in mind?
I see that there are, wisely, only four Liberal Democrats in the House at the moment; the others are no doubt explaining to their constituents why it is that when they said, “Vote for us and keep the Tories out,” they completely misunderstood the position. It seems to me that this is not just a broken promise, as there are real issues at stake. I was criticised for what I did with national insurance, but I wanted to ensure that pensioners would not have to pay the increased tax and I wanted to protect people earning less than £20,000—of course, that has not happened.
Phil Wilson (Sedgefield) (Lab)
The Chancellor keeps saying that we are all in this together, but the headlines in The Financial Times today suggest otherwise. Under the headline, “Well paid breathe collective sigh of relief”, the article quotes someone from RBC Wealth Management saying:
“Many high earners will be breathing a sigh of relief.”
Does that not prove that we are not all in it together?
Vince Cable
That was a very strange intervention. It may reflect the fact that the hon. Gentleman—whom I respect a great deal—has rejoined the House following the election, and may not be familiar with the arguments that led up to it. He will know, however, that the last Government were going to phase out their bonus tax. We have reintroduced a stable system of taxation on banks, the incidence of which will increase over time. Of course, many things need to happen to the banking system. We will discuss, as colleagues, how we should deal with such matters as bank lending, on which there is an outrageous record of bank dysfunctionality.
Phil Wilson
It seems to me that, to rectify the problems, the right hon. Gentleman has signed up his party to a Budget that represents a massive gamble for the country. What happens if it fails? What is plan B?
Vince Cable
The hon. Gentleman says that a gamble is being made. Certainly there is a risk. There are risks in tightening fiscal policy too quickly, but there are also risks in doing nothing, or in doing less. We have had to balance those risks, and we have concluded that we must act.
Since the questions are coming from Labour Members, let me now give the other reason why I feel strongly about the need to act decisively in the way in which the Chancellor acted yesterday. Thirty years ago, as an adviser, I occupied the office that I now occupy as a Minister. It was the end of a Labour Government who had chosen to ignore the build-up to a major financial crisis. As some people will remember, the painful measures—the taxes, welfare cuts and spending cuts—were not taken by choice. They were imposed from outside by the International Monetary Fund. Because I was there at the tail-end of that Government, I saw the consequences, not the least of which were the massive divisions that opened up. People in the Government such as Denis Healey, Roy Jenkins and my boss, John Smith, believed that the Government had to be responsible, but there were a lot of others—I sense a growing echo of this feeling on the Opposition Back Benches today—who said, “We don’t need to do anything, we can fight the gnomes of Zurich and drive them underground, we can ignore the rest of the world and we do not need to act.” It was a disastrous alternative strategy, and the Labour party is in great danger of returning to that territory.
That is why I have come to the same position as the Chancellor of the Exchequer. We come from different political traditions; I do not try to hide that. As it happens, my role models as Chancellor of the Exchequer include Sir Stafford Cripps and Roy Jenkins, because they understood the need for sound public finance and they combined tough action on budgets with fairness. That is the tradition that we have continued.
Let me list some of the measures in this Budget with which I am proud to be associated. There is the lifting of the tax threshold by £1,000, towards the £10,000 mark. There is the action on capital gains tax, which is not just a tax-avoidance measure, but is about fairness. We have acted on public sector pay not just by freezing some salaries but by giving special help to people on low pay in the public sector. We have introduced the bank levy. We have done what the Labour Government failed to do in 12 years and introduced a triple-lock to protect pensioners—the shadow Deputy Leader of the House, the hon. Member for Worsley and Eccles South (Barbara Keeley), could not quite get her head around what the triple-lock is—and in addition supported pensioners through improved pension credit, which is a major cost on the budget going forward. We took action to head off any increase in child benefit, too.
Let me read a comment on child poverty made not by a politician, but by Barnardo’s, one of the leading charities. Yesterday it said:
“There’s some pain in this Budget for the poorest families, but we recognise the government has done what it can to protect the most vulnerable.
Our calls for child tax credits to be redirected away from more wealthy families to the poorest have been heard—an action we highly commend.”