Strategic Defence Review
Lord Walney Excerpts(2 months, 2 weeks ago)
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Lord Walney (CB)
My Lords, I commend the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Verdirame, and associate myself with them. I draw the attention of the Committee to my interests in the register. I will add two brief points to the very many erudite contributions that have already been made in the debate.
The first is on the importance of the AUKUS alliance to our future strategic defence. The deal signed in 2021 between the UK, Australia and America was genuinely ground-breaking and historic. In the coming period, coinciding with this parliamentary term, we must realise the ambitions of both pillars of the agreement: to deliver a conventionally armed but nuclear-powered submarine to Australia through the joint industrial and technological endeavour of the UK and Australia, aided, as ever, by the Americans; and to have increased co-operation on a range of advanced capabilities, currently listed as undersea capabilities, quantum, artificial intelligence and autonomy, advanced cyber, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic system capabilities, electronic warfare, innovation and information sharing.
Incoming Labour Ministers commendably focused on the AUKUS agreement while in opposition and have given unequivocal backing to its continuation. The risk is that in this highly congested matrix of threats in the middle of which we, in the United Kingdom, find ourselves—amid ongoing questions about funding, the question mark over the US election hanging over the country, the continued threat in Ukraine, the risk of instability in the Middle East and the understandable question of whether the UK can feasibly make a sufficient contribution within the north Atlantic—AUKUS is seen as part of an Indo-Pacific tilt which takes the UK beyond its capabilities. Even if the Government’s stated intention remains, their focus may drift.
All those things are understandable, but have to be placed in the context of the fundamental importance of the strategic threat that a rising China poses to us. It should be a point of great pride for our nation that we can assist in this significant advance for the West by increasing our deterrent capabilities towards a strategic opponent or adversary—however you want to call it—which has been growing remorselessly, which is not fazed by much of what the UK and its western allies have done recently, but which has really noticed the change that AUKUS provides.
Much of the AUKUS agreement rests on embedding a consensus between Governments and within parliaments. That must be supported by an increased understanding of the threats that we face. That is the challenge that the Government, and all of us as parliamentarians, have to prosecute over the coming years.
The second of the points that I want to make is on the importance of a whole-government, whole-society approach. There have been a number of important contributions on this already.
Look at the example of the nuclear deterrent programme, which has been described many times as a national endeavour. Look at the focus that each incoming Prime Minister has placed on it and their understanding of the funding needed to drive it through. That stacks up, but is the whole of government really focused on delivering the deterrent programme in the way that is needed? That is an open question. The long-term funding that has been provided for Barrow and the wider economy to unlock issues with the programme’s delivery is hugely welcome and the commitment to that must remain under the new Government. This goes beyond the strategic defence review, and I am not saying that simply as a former MP for the area. It is hugely important to unlock the delivery of the programme, without which one would struggle to do it and certainly to do it to cost. It is a cost saving of £200 million, if the Treasury can believe that, which is sometimes a struggle.
The earlier contributions about the delinquency of former Governments were powerfully made, but we must look at ourselves and at the political debate in this country. Look, for example, at the level of controversy over the restriction and means testing of winter fuel payments or over the child benefit cap. There is nothing like the same level of controversy and focus on the gap that clearly exists in the country between present defence spending and what is needed to restore a level of deterrence and give us greater security to maintain our ways of life and values in future years. Until we can change that, which requires leadership from the top and across the political spectrum, and until we can talk more seriously about the defence and security issues that we face—not simply within this erudite Room but more widely and in a way that is more often heard by the public—we will never move to the funding levels and hard choices needed to give ourselves the strategic deterrence that we need.
King’s Speech
Lord Walney Excerpts(4 months, 4 weeks ago)
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Lord Walney (CB)
My Lords, I draw attention to my entry in the register of interests, in particular, my role advising Leonardo as part of the Purpose Coalition. I, too, am delighted at the appointment of my noble friends as Ministers in the new Labour Government, and at the superb choice of my noble friend Lord Robertson as the lead reviewer. If there was any doubt before, his appointment makes it clear that there is no danger that the new Government will listen to the occasional siren voice in the foreign and defence establishment questioning the nuclear deterrent, among other things.
I shall focus my remarks on the Government’s target of spending 2.5% of GDP on defence. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton, made a powerful speech that was among those setting out why a spending target in numeric terms is not sufficient and must be accompanied by an expansive vision. Nevertheless, it is necessary. It is an important marker and signal to our adversaries of the seriousness with which this Government and country will take defending the nation.
The Prime Minister made it clear as recently as the NATO summit that the Labour Government’s commitment to 2.5% is cast-iron. The manifesto makes it clear that the Government’s No. 1 priority is to defend the nation, and that sentiment was echoed at the Dispatch Box by my noble friend the Minister in her opening remarks. The Government know that the diversity and intensity of the threats they face, the determination and expansiveness of our adversaries and the scale of sustained investment required mean that words to that effect must be backed by action. If defence is the top priority of the Government, they have to prioritise spending on the defence realm.
Let us look at a key example this week. In the other place, the new Government faced an early challenge from opposition parties and a number of their own Members of Parliament—to remove the two-child benefit cap. That desire is entirely understandable and right. The scale of child poverty in communities across the UK is deeply affecting, and removing the cap would be an effective mechanism, taking many thousands of children out of poverty.
However, in an environment where global threat levels are so high and diverse; where incoming Ministers and the Prime Minister apparently agree with the assessment of the head of the British Army that we must be ready to fight a war within three years, as the fallout from Russia’s appalling aggression in Ukraine continues; where the Middle East is deeply unstable; where we are pressing on with the national endeavour to renew the nuclear deterrent and strengthen our cyber deterrence; where we have an equally unshakeable commitment to the AUKUS security alliance to deal with the rising Pacific threat; and where we recognise that all our goals for social progress at home are underpinned by security and deterrence abroad, how could we justify removing the benefit cap—a worthy measure but not a manifesto commitment—ahead of the clear manifesto commitment to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP?
This is not a trivial tension. Figures provided to me by the Lords Library today estimate the cost of removing the cap to be £2.1 billion this year, £2.4 billion next year and £2.8 billion in 2027-28. Based on the current official economic forecast, if you added that to the last Government’s projected increase in defence spending, you would reach 2.5% by 2028. Let us not forget that all this is happening in an environment where the western alliance may be set to face its greatest challenge for many decades, depending on events across the Atlantic. Britain cannot afford to leave increasing investment in our defences to another day.