Defence: 2.5% GDP Spending Commitment
Lord Robathan Excerpts(5 days, 5 hours ago)
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Lord Coaker (Lab)
I thank the noble and gallant Lord his question. He will know that one of the parameters of my noble friend Lord Robertson’s defence review is to look at the threats and at the capabilities needed within the envelope of 2.5%. Any country would have to determine what it believes it can afford and is necessary. The defence review will come forward with the threat assessment, and then it will be for the Government to determine, with the defence panel, how we meet those threats going forward.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I have a high regard for the Minister—that may damn his career—and he will know that I was not entirely supportive of the previous Government’s defence spending. However, the time is now: the war is raging in Ukraine and, as he knows, it is getting worse and worse. Furthermore, as was just pointed out, the arbitrary figure of 2.5% of GDP is not nearly enough. We need to prioritise defence spending and to really up it—perhaps double it, for goodness’ sake—to where we were back in the Cold War, when we held the deterrent to keep Russia at bay.
Defence: 2.5% GDP Spending Commitment
Lord Robathan Excerpts(1 month, 1 week ago)
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Lord Coaker (Lab)
I thank my noble friend for his question. As he knows, we can say to the President of the United States that we will meet the cast-iron 2.5% commitment and will set that out in due course. We understand that European countries need to increase their defence spending; 23 of the NATO nations are now spending 2.5%, so that is a very real commitment. The American President will also be pleased to hear that this country is leading a carrier strike group into the Indo-Pacific—as we know, China is of particular interest to the incoming President as well as the current one. We will work with them to deliver that capability.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, there is already a bloody war being waged on the continent of Europe. Putin is waging war on us through cyberattacks and Litvinenko, the Skripals, et cetera. Does the Minister, for whom I have a great deal of respect, agree that 2.5% is not enough?
Lord Coaker (Lab)
The Government have made a commitment to 2.5%; the previous Government made a commitment to 2.5% by 2030. We will see what happens, but we commit to look at the 2.5% at a future fiscal event in the spring. We also want to ensure that we have the capability to meet the threats we face. Let us be clear about this: the UK is the leading nation in Europe, along with the United States and our European allies, standing up against Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. The message needs to come from this Chamber that this country will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes to deter Russian aggression.
Ukraine
Lord Robathan Excerpts(1 month, 3 weeks ago)
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Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I apologise to the House because it is very difficult to say anything original after about 20 speeches. What is nice about this debate is that there is nothing party political about it. I congratulate the Minister, who is currently not in his place, because I agree with almost everything, if not everything, he said. It was an excellent and very robust speech. I also congratulate my friend and former pupil, the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, on his speech, which covered much of what I wanted to say, and the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, on his excellent maiden speech, with which I also agreed on almost everything.
I will make several points that are not necessarily entirely related. We in the West need to realise that this is the most dangerous time of our lives since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. There is a real danger of all-out war, which we must avoid if at all possible. We need to prepare the population, however, by warning the nation and getting everyone onside with this danger, as mentioned by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, and my noble friend Lady Helic. We must prepare ourselves as a nation. We must fill our munition bunkers, which were emptied because we gave all the munitions to the Ukrainians; the noble Lord, Lord Spellar, mentioned that in relation to our industrial needs. We must allow Ukraine to fight, as Russia does, an all-out war, which includes letting them use any munitions we give them, including Storm Shadow, to attack Russia.
We must spend a huge amount more on defence and not pussyfoot around on 2.5%. We face a war situation, and the only way to deter war is to be prepared for it. I suggest that we probably need to double defence spending. Yesterday, the Defence Secretary, the right honourable John Healey, said that we are not prepared to fight a war at the moment. We of course do not want a shooting war between NATO and Russia—I have a personal, family reason for not wanting to see British soldiers killed in Ukraine—but Putin threatens a nuclear war. The aggressor threatens us, saying: if we escalate, we will have nuclear war. I am afraid that we need to call his bluff. He is the aggressor. Luckily, China will constrain him from using any nuclear weapons.
From another angle entirely, it worries me that the Americans do not seem to study history. Do they not know what happened with isolationism in the 1930s and where that led?
There was the BRICS meeting in Kazan only this week. South Africa and India, two nations that should have been at CHOGM, were there listening to Putin rather than listening to the Commonwealth meeting.
There is a so-called axis of evil, with Iran, North Korea, China and Russia. Iran and North Korea are already helping Russia in its fight. Luckily, China is now the senior member of this partnership. Previously, as those with knowledge of history will know, under Stalin, China got very miffed because Stalin used to try to bully the communist Chinese in the early 1950s.
The noble Lord, Lord Spellar, said that this is a 10-year war. However, I was sanctioned in 2015, as I think he was, because I said that Putin had an aggrand-isement policy in Crimea. I suggest that Putin has been attacking the West for more than 10 years. Litvinenko was murdered not two miles from here 18 years ago. Then, 16 years ago, Putin invaded Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Last week, we had the warning —we should remember this—from Ken McCallum of MI5 that Putin intends to disrupt, and cause chaos in, our nation. This is war.
This is the most dangerous time of our lives, not just for us but for NATO and the West. The situation is getting worse. There is an urgency here. The noble Lord, Lord Robertson, for whom I have a great regard, is conducting a defence review—incidentally, I do not defend the defence policies of the previous Government. I wish him well, but we cannot wait very long; the West needs to act. If you go to Poland, the Baltic states or Finland, they will tell you that we need to act now, not in a year or two. If we want to keep peace, prosperity and security in Europe, we must see the West defeat Putin.
King’s Speech
Lord Robathan Excerpts(4 months, 3 weeks ago)
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Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, five minutes is too a short a time to develop a proper argument, but I will abide by the Chief Whip’s strictures and keep to it.
I say to the Government Front Bench—I am sure they know it—that if participation becomes a criterion for staying in the House of Lords, I fear they will hear more people like me wittering on pointlessly, because that is what will have to happen.
I want to make three points in my brief time. I visited Gaza in 2007 and we had lunch at UNRWA. Since then, we have had another 17 years of Hamas terrorist control of Gaza. It is impossible in Gaza to be an independent voice; you will not survive. Now that we have established that we are giving money again to UNRWA, can the Government tell us how they will ensure that the aid is delivered to the needy and the injured in Gaza and not stolen by Hamas fighters, like the aid that was sent in the past and which has built a tunnel system larger than the London Underground?
I was delighted to hear the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson, reaffirm support for Israel. It is essential. Israel is certainly not perfect; we know that. The situation in Gaza is absolutely ghastly, but Hamas can end the conflict tomorrow by releasing the hostages and laying down its weapons, with the guilty personnel from 7 October going off to join their leadership in luxury hotels in the Gulf. We must also always be aware, as was mentioned in the Labour manifesto, of the malign influence of Iran.
My second point is about Ukraine. Again, support is not negotiable, as the Minister said in her introduction, but there is huge uncertainty around the US elections—the noble Lord, Lord Moore, spoke of that much better than I can. The war in Ukraine is existential for western values and prosperity. I say to the Government that we should allow—I know that the previous Government did not—Storm Shadow to be used at any target in Russia and pay attention to Putin’s threats. If Putin wins, his victory will be much more expensive for us than giving further Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine.
That brings me to my third point, on the defence review, which I welcome. I welcome the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, for whom I have great respect, as I do John Healey and the Ministers on the Front Bench. They are all respected. As noble Lords may know, I was always a critic of Conservative defence policy, so I see a ray of hope in the catastrophe that took place on 4 July in this defence review. We need new weaponry. We need to use new technology; we need drones and AI—the vital helpers to help us punch above our weight against superior numbers, as was mentioned by the Chief of the General Staff only this week.
However, numbers still matter, as Ukraine and Russia will testify, with the ghastly, dirty war going on in eastern Ukraine. Older weapon systems, such as tanks, also still matter. In 1991, I spoke to the then Defence Secretary and said, “The tank will be seen as the horse of the late 20th century”, which I still stand by. Horses also have utility—okay, not that much perhaps—but tanks certainly do if you are standing on the ground with just a rifle.
The Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Roly Walker, said that we need to be ready to fight a major war in three years, and that is supported by the Chief of the Defence Staff. Of course, it all comes back to money. I say now that 2.5% of GDP is not nearly enough. During the Cold War, which was a war but was cold—we are now seeing a hot war in Ukraine—generally when we faced a threat we spent 5% or 6% of GDP. All our interests, values and prosperity are at risk. If the Labour Government really believe that defence of the realm is the first duty of government, which in essence is what they say in the manifesto, we need to prioritise spending on defence. More spending now will be less expensive than not spending money now, as we will discover, because we must deter our enemies.
I congratulate the new Ministers in the House of Lords, although I am not terribly pleased to see them there, and I wish the noble Lord, Lord Robertson, who has just come into his place, John Healey and the Ministers here well in their task of the defence review. Their task is vital. We must prioritise defence of the realm.
UK Armed Forces in Middle East
Lord Robathan Excerpts(7 months, 3 weeks ago)
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Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, can my noble friend update us on the situation regarding the malign influence of Iran, which has of course recently attacked Israel? It has certainly armed Hamas in the past, whatever its situation now, and is almost certainly controlling Hezbollah. Can he please update us on that?
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, the diplomatic situation with Iran is that we are using every possible effort to quieten down what could have become an extremely dangerous situation. So far, that diplomacy does seem to be working.
UK Armed Forces
Lord Robathan Excerpts(9 months, 1 week ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, there were a lot of questions there. On the question of the contracts, the DE&S is actually overseeing 2,600 different contracts across 550 different programmes, delivering, believe it or not, 98% of key user requirements. It achieves 90% of the strategic milestones and, contrary to public perception, and indeed to perception within this House, it delivers well to budget.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, my noble friend is making a good fist of defending a frankly indefensible brief. He and I both served together in the Cold War —a long half-century ago—but there is now a hot war in Europe. It is taking place as we speak, hundreds of thousands of people are being killed, and it is against the same opponent. As the noble Lord, Lord Lee, has just said—and I hate to agree with the Liberal Democrats —we cannot say that we will set out our long-term aspiration to increase defence spending “when fiscal and economic circumstances allow”. It is now; we must spend money now before the whole of European prosperity and our prosperity are destroyed.
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, I can do no more than take that message back, and take the tone of the House back, to the Secretary of State. He will not be surprised, but I will certainly undertake to do that.
Iran: Military Power
Lord Robathan Excerpts(10 months ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
The noble Lord makes a very thorough and important point. We remain committed to a diplomatic solution and are prepared to use all diplomatic options to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon, including, if necessary, triggering the JCPOA snapback mechanism, which allows for the rapid reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran. Along with partners, including the US, France, the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UK is leading international efforts to deter Iran. This includes keeping international focus on Iran to dissuade it from proliferating, stopping the supply of weapons components into Iran, and deterring potential purchasers of all Iranian weapons.
Lord Robathan (Con)
Can my noble friend tell the House, given the very serious situation in Iran, what capacity the United Kingdom has to project military power beyond its borders? I refer particularly to the failure of the two aircraft carriers, which we have spent a fortune on and which seem to spend most of their lives in Portsmouth.
Ukraine
Lord Robathan Excerpts(1 year ago)
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The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, the noble Baroness is right that the world will not have the relevant stockpiles unless the orders are placed with industry. There is an expectation of what the commitment will be and the rate of fire that is currently being managed—that is probably the best word—by the Ukrainian armed forces is its start point. Orders have been placed across the world with industry, and this country is not outwith that.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, I belatedly welcome the noble Earl to his place and remind him that we once shared Chelsea barracks, nearly half a century ago. The Government have been very good and admirable in their behaviour with Ukraine, so let us congratulate them on that. However, I return to what the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, just said. Can the Minister reassure me and the House, and the country, that our armoury is full and replenished after all the stuff that we have given to Ukraine?
The Earl of Minto (Con)
My Lords, I thank my noble friend for those fond memories of serving Her Majesty. The question about replenishment is not on a like-for-like basis. A lot of what we have gifted to Ukraine has been from stockpiles. When you deplenish stockpiles, you replace with what is more current, what is new and what is more appropriate to the area of operation that we find ourselves in. We are not preparing for a Cold War; we are preparing for something very different, as I am sure everybody in this House is fully aware. Therefore, the orders that have been placed for missiles, cannons, rifle rounds and shells are appropriate for the weaponry that we are bringing in and currently have, rather than some of the gifted matériel that we have got rid of in recent years.
Armed Forces: Troop Levels
Lord Robathan Excerpts(1 year, 3 months ago)
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Baroness Goldie (Con)
I pay tribute to the noble Baroness’s support of the Royal Navy; it is a very welcome contribution. We know anecdotally that the pay increase awarded to the Armed Forces has been very positively received. The noble Baroness referred to recruitment, and I am not denying that it is a challenge: we are living in a very competitive job market. The Armed Forces are conscious of that. We have been reviewing the recruitment campaigns with very recent effect, and the new version of these campaigns is out now or going out imminently. We are also very clear that addressing pay and recruitment in themselves are not enough, and that is why we are looking at how we can better meld the job offer—the overall package to recruit applicants—to reflect better what life is like now in the workplace, hence the Haythornthwaite review, which is a very interesting and positive contribution to what we might be doing. The MoD is embracing its principal recommendations already.
Lord Robathan (Con)
Does my noble friend not understand that one of the problems with serving in the Armed Forces at the moment is a perception that they are in part of a declining industry? This is not a new thing, but we are actually declining the Armed Forces at the moment by shrinking them. This is completely nuts. Does my noble friend consider that perhaps the new Secretary of State may take a look at this and say, “Well, with a war going on in Europe, it may be time to revisit the so-called refresh: we need troops; we need sailors, we need airmen, and we need to get them soon”? If you have a sense that the Armed Forces are going forward, then people will stay because they feel they are doing something worth while.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
With the greatest respect, I slightly disagree with my noble friend and wish to disabuse him of the idea that there is some decline going on; there is not. In fact, the example that the UK has set globally in respect of our support for Ukraine has been universally admired. That is dependent on not just military donations, but also on the NATO support which we are able to provide. As my noble friend will be aware, we are playing our role in these NATO contributions, for example through JEF and EFP—now important both in the Baltic and the Balkans. But our concentration is on whole force, and that is how we have to look at the modern threat and the modern areas of conflict.
Ukraine: Ammunition and Missiles
Lord Robathan Excerpts(1 year, 4 months ago)
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Baroness Goldie (Con)
The recent munitions contract for the 155-millimetre artillery shells is with BAE Systems, and part of this agreement involves an order for 30-millimetre cannon rounds and 5.56-millimetre rifle rounds. We have also placed orders with Thales—that is for the NLAWs—and there is a lot of activity now with our UK manufacturers.
Lord Robathan (Con)
My Lords, while I am encouraged by what my noble friend the Minister says about replenishing stocks, I agree with the noble Lord, Lord West—perhaps unusually—that we must have a steady supply base. We have stopped asking for certain bits of ammunition and supply chains have dropped. I am afraid that defence is expensive and, as we now know, it is very expensive if you happen to be sitting in Ukraine.
Baroness Goldie (Con)
Yes, and precisely that challenge has been acknowledged both by the Government and particularly by the MoD. My noble friend will recall that we have granted £2.3 billion-worth of military aid in 2022-23 and we are committed to repeating that for 2023-24. As I indicated to the noble Lord, Lord West, industry is now in a much more resilient position than it was, thankfully. We are satisfied that we have the funding streams, which are already public, to sustain a regular replenishment flow.