Amendment of the Law
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(13 years, 8 months ago)
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Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
It is an honour to follow in the slipstream of the new Member for Barnsley Central (Dan Jarvis), who has executed an elegant parachute jump into the Chamber. His forceful and powerful speech was a reminder of how important it is, at a time when the country is making ever greater demands on its armed forces, that we hear the voices of our servicemen and women from all parts of the Chamber.
Thus far we have touched several times on the critical role that the bond markets are playing in framing the budgetary policy of this coalition Government. The hon. Member for Middlesbrough (Sir Stuart Bell), who is no longer in the Chamber, asked when it was that bond markets acquired this pivotal role in our national economic policy making. If I may venture an answer, I think that the views of rating agencies became impossible to ignore when towards the middle of the previous decade—before the onset of the financial crisis—the British Government
“lost control of public spending”
in three key Government Departments: Health, Education and Defence. Those are not my words or views but those of Sir Nicholas Macpherson, the permanent secretary of Her Majesty’s Treasury, as expressed in a hearing of the Public Accounts Committee not so long ago; they are available in the Committee report if people wish to have a look.
It is also important for the hon. Member for Middlesbrough to realise that we live in a globalised financial market, and if one cannot fund one’s borrowing requirements from captive domestic sources, inevitably one is forced upon the mercies of the international capital markets, and that is exactly where we find ourselves today.
Mr Kevan Jones
I know that the Conservatives are peddling the line that we are in hock to foreign banks, but does the hon. Gentleman not realise that only about 35% of our gilts and debts are held abroad? Greece is always held up as the big pariah, and its figure is nearly 70%. The hon. Gentleman’s argument is frankly complete nonsense.
Joseph Johnson
I thank the hon. Gentleman for that elegantly expressed critique. It is a significant proportion of our borrowing. It is not the totality, and I never said that it was. However, if our marginal investor, whom we need to supply that additional pound of borrowing, is setting the price for our borrowing, that determines the rate at which we finance ourselves. It is as simple as that. That is straightforward marginal pricing through supply and demand.
Joseph Johnson
No, I will carry on for a little.
In my view, it is only thanks to the resolve and determination of this Government that we have sufficient credibility with the bond markets to have delivered a Budget for growth. The Budget includes an acceleration of the plans to cut corporation tax, which will give a much-needed boost to Britain’s international competitiveness. I am particularly pleased by that because at a time when countries need to compete ever more aggressively to attract highly skilled labour, the UK is increasingly being seen not just as a high-tax economy, but as one with a highly complex and unwieldy tax system. The World Economic Forum’s global competitiveness report for 2011 ranked the UK tax regime the 95th most competitive out of 135 countries—almost at the bottom of the world rankings. That sends out a terrible signal to global business.
The UK tax regime was once viewed as an asset and I am glad that the Government are proceeding with plans to make it an asset once again. I fully support the Chancellor’s plans to give Britain the most competitive business tax regime of any major western economy, and to reverse our slide down the global competitiveness rankings. Already, the coalition Government have reversed planned increases in payroll taxes and lowered small business rates. As we heard from the Chancellor this afternoon, they will accelerate reductions in corporation tax so that by 2014, the rate falls to 23%—the lowest ever rate in this country and the lowest in the G7. That is something that we should celebrate if we are serious about enterprise and entrepreneurialism in this country.
I also welcome the Chancellor’s decision to analyse closely whether the top rate of tax is yield positive or negative for the British economy. It is worth considering whether it is deterring investment, thereby losing us more revenue than it is bringing in. A more competitive, simpler and more stable tax regime is an essential precondition for growth and will ultimately be better for everybody in this country, rich and poor alike.
When countries that had public finances in a comparable state to ours last May are still fighting off the terrible spectre of sovereign debt default, it would be terrible folly to slow the pace of what is widely regarded as a necessary fiscal consolidation. Our policies are under intense scrutiny by the international bond markets, to which we are paying £120 million in interest daily. We cannot afford for our borrowing costs to rise, as they have elsewhere. We are paying 3.6% in the gilt markets on our staggering public debt. Other countries are paying rates closer to 8% or 9%, and Greece is paying a staggering 12.6%. We simply cannot afford to be complacent, as the Governor of the Bank of England made clear in a recent hearing of the Treasury Committee, at which he stated firmly that UK gilt rates would rise by three percentage points if we backtracked from the course of fiscal consolidation that we have outlined.
Mr Jones
I wish the hon. Gentleman would do some homework before he makes accusations, and not just swallow the central office lines on such things. He does not tell the House that less than 20% of our debt needs to be repaid in the next three years, whereas Greece and other countries need to repay 36% or 37% of their debt in the next three years. The idea that we have an instant crisis is wrong. Can he tell me when a UK Government have ever defaulted on a gilt payment?
Joseph Johnson
There are problems when a country has a stock of debt as massive as ours. Even with the Government’s plans for fiscal consolidation, it will not start declining for some years to come. Under the Labour Government our stock of debt would have peaked at about 80% of gross domestic product, but under the current Government’s plans it will peak somewhere below 70%—69%, I think I recall. [Hon. Members: “71%.”] Either 69% or 71%. Such a massive stock of debt means that every year, we have to refinance several hundred billion pounds of Government debt. Even if it is not all the debt, that is still a very substantial amount of money.
Richard Fuller
Perhaps my hon. Friend will be interested to read on page 25 of the debt and reserves management report issued today that the gap in the five-year forward rate on debt borrowing is at its highest point for 10 years. That reflects the fact that the market is buying only short-term debt. One of the few assets of this country that the last Government did not sell down the river was the long-dated debt that we have compared with other countries. If we had carried on with their policies, even that would have been lost as a result of their profligacy and waste.
Joseph Johnson
That is a very good point. Markets can turn on a dime if they detect backsliding, and that is not what they are getting from this Government.
Chris Bryant (Rhondda) (Lab)
The Conservatives spend all their time suggesting that this is just a national problem. The hon. Gentleman cited the possibility of our debt being 71% of GDP, but in Germany the figure is 79%, in France it is 75%, in Italy it is 116% and in Japan it is 194%. These problems came to every country in the world, and my right hon. Friend the Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown) was not responsible for all of them.
Joseph Johnson
Markets can turn on a dime if they detect backsliding. Recovering lost confidence would require much bigger cuts to public spending than the credible ones that the Government have outlined. Evidence for that is in abundant supply in countries on the periphery of the eurozone. Despite the agreement on the post-2013 European stability mechanism, concerns about the underlying solvency of the most vulnerable countries—Portugal, Ireland and Greece—are growing.
Jim Fitzpatrick (Poplar and Limehouse) (Lab)
I am terribly sorry to interrupt the hon. Gentleman, but will he respond later in his speech to the question that my hon. Friend the Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) asked him?
Joseph Johnson
I did not touch on it directly because the reply is obvious. Yes, other countries have large debts, but that does not mean that we do not have an urgent need to reduce the scope of our borrowing and our national interest payments.
Sajid Javid
The hon. Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) should recognise that every country’s situation is different. He mentions Japan, whose debt might be about 190% of GDP, but it is also the largest creditor nation in the world. Only about 5% of its total debt stock is held by foreign investors. The situation is quite different in our case.
Joseph Johnson
That is an excellent point.
As my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham (Mr Redwood) said earlier, Portugal’s position is particularly precarious at the moment because opposition parties there, much like here, have refused to back the austerity measures needed to help the country avoid a bail-out. That could force Portugal further down the international bail-out route that was first trodden by Greece last spring and then by Ireland at the end of last year. Portugal’s 10-year Government bond yields rose comfortably above 8% yesterday, for the first time since the start of the crisis, reflecting plunging market confidence in the resolve of that country’s political class. That cannot be said of the occupants of Nos. 10 and 11 Downing street.
Mr Kevan Jones
The hon. Gentleman uses Greece, but my hon. Friend the Member for Rhondda (Chris Bryant) makes a very good point: we must look at countries individually. Our economy is larger than Portugal’s or Greece’s and completely different in other ways. In addition, countries such as those have a tradition of being unable to implement fiscal reductions, unlike ours. The basic, simple point is this: £5,000 is a lot to owe for someone earning £10,000, but it is a completely different thing for the hon. Member for Richmond Park (Zac Goldsmith) or other such people to owe that much.
Joseph Johnson
I am not sure which of those many points to focus on. Greece’s economy is of course very different from ours, and we have a history of repaying our creditors in full, on time and when we say we will. We do not want to lose that reputation, which is why it is so important that the Government stick to their plans to bring our public finances back on to a sustainable path. We cannot compromise or jeopardise our standing in the international financial markets.
Jacob Rees-Mogg (North East Somerset) (Con)
Does not the fact that £332 billion needs to be raised on the gilt market over the next two years, which at an extra 3% would be £9 billion a year of extra interest, show the utterly cavalier approach of Opposition Members in their recent interventions?
Joseph Johnson
Absolutely—their way of looking at our borrowing requirements is completely irresponsible. To think that we should pay more than £120 million a day in interest, which we are currently paying, is utterly absurd.
Chris Bryant
Incidentally, it is interesting to hear the hon. Member for North East Somerset (Jacob Rees-Mogg) condemn cavaliers. I thought he was one in the 17th century.
Many countries whose debt is a higher share of gross domestic product than the UK’s are not cutting anywhere near as fast as we are. Of all 29 major industrialised countries, only one is cutting faster than us: Greece.
Joseph Johnson
The hon. Gentleman may be a great economic expert, but he might find that the world’s foremost economists and international financial organisations, from the International Monetary Fund to the OECD—the entire gamut of respected economic thought—see this fiscal consolidation as necessary. There is no backsliding, which I applaud.
Before those interventions, I was saying that Portugal is moving ever closer to becoming the third eurozone periphery country to need a bail-out. Borrowing costs are again rising to a new euro-era high in Ireland, which desperately needs eurozone members at tomorrow’s summit to reach a political compromise on revised lending terms.
By contrast, Britain is a different story, thanks to the credible policies in the emergency Budget last June and the policies announced in October’s spending review. There is no sign whatever of any funding problems in the gilts market—quite the opposite—and we must prize that achievement. We have saved our triple A credit rating, which was under threat of downgrade in the last months of the previous Government, and kept our borrowing costs close to historic lows.
The coalition Government have earned the respect of the international capital markets and have their confidence, because the combination of a tight fiscal and a loose monetary policy remains the best chance of avoiding a sovereign debt crisis while ensuring acceptable increases in GDP. Britain simply could not for long run a budget deficit of 11% of GDP—the second highest in the OECD—without taking the unacceptable risk of losing the confidence of the bond markets. Almost a year on, the wisdom of taking decisive action to reduce the risk of sovereign debt crisis is obvious to all except perhaps Labour Members. Even Gavyn Davies, the Labour-supporting economist, conceded in yesterday’s Financial Times that getting the deficit down was a “defensible decision”.
A debt crisis would have been disastrous for growth and unemployment, as many European nations are now discovering. Furthermore, unlike those countries, Britain can, and is, using monetary and exchange rate policy to offset the fiscal tightening, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Wokingham said. I hope that that will keep the economy recovering.
As I have said, all manner of international bodies, from the IMF to the OECD, are unanimous in urging the Chancellor to stay the fiscal course that he has so consistently outlined for this country. Yes, real GDP growth may have dipped temporarily as consumers’ expenditure has been weakened, and today’s growth forecasts for 2011 from the Office for Budget Responsibility may be a little lower than we would have liked. However—
Joseph Johnson
I will continue, if I may.
However, business surveys have been much stronger than the official data, and the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that the chances of a double-dip recession are no more than 20%. Even Gavyn Davies, the great Labour-supporting economist, admits that this figure is
“not high enough to jettison the government’s main strategy, with the loss of credibility which that would imply.”
Mr Davies is, of course, completely right. Maintaining the current policy remains the best bet for Britain in the medium to long term, and that is what matters most.
Oral Answers to Questions
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(13 years, 11 months ago)
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Tony Baldry (Banbury) (Con)
13. What recent assessment he has made of the effectiveness of the private finance initiative.
Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
15. What recent assessment he has made of the effectiveness of the private finance initiative.
The Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Danny Alexander)
In the spending review the Government abolished the private finance initiative credit system, which provided Departments with a ring-fenced budget that could be used only to support local authority PFI projects. The change levelled the playing field between PFI and other forms of procurement.
Danny Alexander
I am grateful to the hon. Gentleman for his festive offer of assistance with these matters. I urge him and other colleagues on both sides of the House to draw the Government’s attention to areas where they see PFI schemes being wasteful, or to examples that they would like to bring to our attention. I would be only too delighted to pick those up if he drew them to my attention.
Joseph Johnson
Has my right hon. Friend had a chance to read the Public Accounts Committee’s recent report on PFI in the credit crunch? It suggested that many projects are locked into very high financing costs for periods of up to 30 years. I wonder what scope there is to claw back some of the gains in the event of any refinancing.
Danny Alexander
The Treasury will respond in the normal way to that report, and it would not be proper for me to comment on it until we have published the relevant Treasury minute. The Treasury and the Cabinet Office are working closely together to ensure that the PFI industry contributes its fair share of savings from operational projects.
Public Accounts Committee
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(13 years, 11 months ago)
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Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
I thank those hon. Members who have curtailed their speeches, and due to the severe time constraints, I will also limit myself to addressing just one theme. It is the theme we discussed in the recent hearing on the Department for International Development: supporting primary education around the world. That is a subject in which I take a particular interest.
That hearing contrasted with many of the other hearings the Committee has had, because DFID is not a repeat offender in the sense that it is not having to be forced to implement past PAC reports. It is a Department that is being reformed from top to bottom, very much in the spirit of the long line of PAC reports that have been critical of value for money within the Department.
The hearing provided us with a very good insight into the work of a Department that is of major importance to the coalition and will become of increasing importance as we meet our commitment to lift the share of aid spending to 0.7% of national income by 2013. Let there be no doubt as to my support for this commitment, which demonstrates the coalition’s determination to stand behind the poorest people around the world. However, at a time of severe retrenchment across unprotected Government Departments, it is all the more crucial that DFID continues the work that has been ongoing—since May, I would say—to do more to secure maximum value for money for the UK taxpayer and the greatest possible impact for those whom the Department is trying to help. The PAC hearing raised a number of concerns in this respect.
First, the primary education programme supported by DFID illustrates the way the Department has, until recently, made astonishingly little attempt to measure value for money in even its biggest programmes. DFID’s rationale for investing in education is that it brings wider benefits which support poverty reduction, but the National Audit Office report and then the PAC hearing clearly found that too much emphasis has been placed on measuring simply the numbers entering education and that DFID has been too quick to claim credit for increases in enrolment rates that are hard to link directly to its programmes. It is also clear that the Department has paid too little attention to how many children are actually attending and completing primary school education, along with the standard of literacy and numeracy they attain. Those are key areas where limited progress has been made. I am glad that, since May, value for money has been vigorously addressed by the new Secretary of State and his team. There is the clear objective of reorienting the entire aid programme to focus on results, not inputs.
That is all the more important in the context of a comprehensive spending review where DFID’s budget is being increased quite substantially, from £6.3 billion this year to £9.4 billion by 2014-15. That is the single biggest increase across all Departments and is an increase of 37% in real terms. By 2014-15, DFID will be bigger even than the Home Office and the Ministry of Justice. That is why I particularly appreciate the work that it is doing to set up the Independent Commission for Aid Impact, which will further emphasise the new value for money priority of the Department. A chief commissioner is in place and is starting work as we speak.
It is also worth pointing out that even though DFID’s budget is expanding, the Department is not losing its focus on administrative efficiency and value for money. That is another area where we can commend the way in which the Department is pre-emptively addressing the concerns that we were raising in the PAC hearing. Although DFID’s overall budget is increasing, administrative costs within the Department are to be reduced by 33% over the course of the comprehensive spending review period. There is certainly evidence to suggest that there is still fat to be cut. I find it surprising that, in an aid Department, there are civil servants earning £175,000, and I am not sure that that sets a great example to the pro bono sector in general.
Lastly, I return to where I started. Measuring outcomes accurately and demonstrating value for money will help to build public support and buy-in for the substantial expansion of the DFID budget that we are programming over the coming years. The PAC’s work in that respect will make a valuable contribution to the process.
Loans to Ireland Bill
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(13 years, 11 months ago)
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Mr Osborne
My hon. Friend will be very focused on what I am about to say, so if he does not mind I shall make a little progress, and then I shall be happy to take an intervention.
Let me turn briefly to the arrangements for a permanent stability mechanism for eurozone economies. The European Council this week is expected to discuss the matter. Both the Prime Minister and I are very clear that when it comes to putting in place a permanent mechanism, the UK is not part of the eurozone and so will not be part of that mechanism. The president of the euro group has accepted that the UK will not be part of the permanent stability mechanism, and that the European financial stability mechanism, which the previous Government agreed in May and of which we are part, will cease to exist when that permanent eurozone mechanism is put in place.
We will seek to bring to an end the use of the mechanism established in May for the resolution of sovereign debt problems. It was established under article 122 of the Lisbon treaty and originally intended to provide support for member states following natural disasters. European Finance Ministers, including my predecessor, chose to apply that article in May to deal with the eurozone crisis at that time, but that temporary solution should not become a permanent way of doing things, and the time has now come for the eurozone to put in place its own mechanism for dealing with the imbalances in the eurozone. That needs to be part of a comprehensive solution whereby countries address their own problems more decisively, including in their banking systems. We in Britain have shown the way.
Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
The Chancellor speaks of a comprehensive solution. Does he recognise that we face not only a crisis of liquidity in Portugal, Greece and Ireland, which we are assisting bilaterally, but a crisis of solvency? The solvency crisis will require us to address not just Irish bank restructuring, but Ireland’s sovereign debt—it is impossible to distinguish the two, given that the Irish state has guaranteed all the Irish banking system’s liabilities—and the solvency of other peripheral eurozone economies. We are helping with financing, but we have not yet addressed the fundamental solvency of those peripheral countries.
Banking Reform
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(13 years, 12 months ago)
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Andrea Leadsom
Absolutely. I was about to make exactly that point. Not only have there been far too few new entrants, we have seen only recently that banks are unable to fail; we cannot risk allowing a bank to fail, as the situation in Ireland has highlighted yet again. Regulation has trumped competition for too long.
It is not simply a matter of being too big to fail. Some of the biggest continuing concerns are about the medium-sized banking sector in the States and in Germany. The same mistakes must never happen again. We need to look to where the next crisis will come. It is absolutely key to introduce more competition and more accountability, and I would consider three areas.
I should not look to split retail and investment banking, which are artificial barriers. They may have worked in the 1920s and 1930s, but now they are too big a grey area. We simply could not do it. Bankers would just find clever ways to get round such measures.
I declare an interest. I have been in banking even longer than my hon. Friend the Member for Bromsgrove (Sajid Javid), as I have been in investment banking and funds management for 23 years. I assure the House that I have seen from all ends how clever bankers are when they want to get round something.
To address competition in the retail and mortgage markets, I would consider ways to let account numbers follow the consumer—one of the biggest barriers to moving an account, as we probably all know. I should love to know how many Members in the Chamber have changed their bank account or mortgage account recently. It is a huge headache. If we let the account number follow the consumer, that would immediately create far greater competition and far greater choice and availability of moving. It could also remove barriers to entry.
Secondly, to address competition in wholesale markets, I would consider giving the new Consumer Protection and Markets Authority a specific competition objective, which would mean that one of its roles would be as a specialist competition commission—not just the Office of Fair Trading, but a specialist commission—that would consider whether, in a particular sector or in a particular geographic region, a bank had a monopolistic or oligopolistic market share. It ought to have a statutory ability then to enforce its recommendations.
Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
Does my hon. Friend agree that the role of regulators in promoting and sustaining competition in the UK financial services market has been greatly complicated by the decision of the previous Administration to allow the merger of Lloyds and HBOS, and to waive all competition criteria which would normally have been applied to such a merger?
Andrea Leadsom
That is absolutely right. We are certainly in a worse position than we were pre-crisis in terms of a lack of competition and massive market share. The five top players in the UK dominate the mortgage market, the retail market and much of the wholesale market.
The third thing I would do is ensure proper pricing of bank risk. That is where one of the fundamental problems has been. Credit ratings agencies are culpable in their own activities, and banks are culpable in following the lead of credit ratings agencies and not bothering to do their own proper credit analysis. Part of that I put down to the fact that it has been far too easy for professionals and retail investors simply to buy bank debt and equities, without bothering to do their own analysis because there has been an implicit Government guarantee. The credit ratings agencies have automatically made them all double A or triple A, so it seemed like a no-brainer.
Unfortunately, there has been no downside, and something must be done to change that radically to ensure that there is a downside to investing in bank risk. Measures such as living wills, and subordinating bond-holders to depositors and equity owners, are ways to ensure that in future it is not the taxpayer who pays for banks’ mistakes.
Finally, if competition and accountability are to be the revolution in financial services for the future, it is essential—going back to what the hon. Member for Leeds East, my colleague on the Treasury Committee, was saying—that bank directors take some responsibility. Directors who break a bank should be fired, without bonuses, pay or early pension, and if criminal negligence can be shown, the ultimate penalty of prison should not be ruled out. Accountability is key.
Financial Assistance (Ireland)
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(14 years ago)
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Mr Osborne
An absolute precondition of growth, as we can see in Ireland, is stability, and there is no stability if people put a question mark over a country’s ability to fund itself. One reason why the international assistance package is being put in place is to take the sovereign out of the debt markets for the next couple of years. Quite frankly, the decisions we took in May, in June and last month were absolutely necessary to restore international confidence in Britain’s ability to deal with its deficit and to restore some sanity to its public finances. I find it slightly bizarre, having now had this argument for about a year with Labour Members, that they continue to pursue the belief that we could stick with a set of fiscal plans that no one regarded as credible.
Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
Could the Chancellor say whether he thinks Ireland’s move to tap international financial assistance will reduce or increase the risk of contagion for other euro area sovereigns and their banking systems? What assessment has he made of the risk posed by countries such as Portugal, Italy and Spain to the UK?
Mr Osborne
I hope my hon. Friend will allow me not to engage in speculation about any other country at the moment. The package today shows the willingness of the international community, the IMF and so on to help countries that get themselves into trouble, whether they are in Europe or anywhere else in the world.
Economic Affairs and Work and Pensions
Lord Johnson of Marylebone Excerpts(14 years, 5 months ago)
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Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)
Thank you, Mr Deputy Speaker, for calling me this evening. The six hours that I have been waiting have truly passed in a flash, such has been the quality of previous maiden speakers, including just now the hon. Member for Newcastle upon Tyne Central (Chi Onwurah). I should particularly like to associate myself with the remarks made by my hon. Friend the Member for Grantham and Stamford (Nick Boles), who is sadly no longer in the Chamber, about the equalities agenda and gay rights.
At the outset, I should make a declaration, as we do a lot of that at the start of Parliaments. Anyone hoping that I will enliven proceedings in the manner of one of my elder brothers, the former Member for Henley, is likely to be disappointed. Private Eye, in the issue on newsstands at the moment, has helped me to set expectations appropriately low. It quotes an unnamed Oxford contemporary, in the first of a series that it is doing on new Members, and that friendly Oxford contemporary of mine says:
“He could not be more different to Boris. It’s as though the humour gene by-passed Jo altogether and he inherited only the ambition gene.”
It is an absolutely fair comment, but I do not really apologise for the humour-ectomy, nor, indeed, for any hint of ambition that the House might detect, because these are serious times and politicians need to be ambitious when the country is in such a mess. History will not forgive us if we flannel around in the House over the next five years and fail to pick the economy up off the floor, where it is at present.
Orpington, the constituency that I am fortunate enough now to represent, has not troubled the House with a maiden speech for 40 years. I am tempted to give Members a double helping, but time will not allow it. That lengthy interlude has arisen because my distinguished predecessor, John Horam, began his parliamentary career not in the idyllic glades of northern Kent, but in the gritty Gateshead West area of Newcastle.
John Horam has the distinction, as many Members will know, of being the only Member to have served in all three parties. He was originally of course a Labour MP in Gateshead, but, disillusioned with Labour’s leftward drift, he dallied with the Social Democratic party in the early ’80s before eventually donning Conservative colours and becoming the MP for Orpington in 1992. By the time he came to give his maiden speech that year, he was of course no maiden, but as a liberal Conservative long before the genre became fashionable, he was at least ahead of his time.
That John’s political journey—his odyssey, in some ways—culminated in Orpington of all places is entirely appropriate. After all, it was in Downe, one of the constituency’s most picturesque villages, that the father of evolutionary biology propounded the earth-shaking theory of natural selection—the most important scientific breakthrough of the past 150 years. It is no surprise to me at all that the people of Orpington inspired Charles Darwin to come up with the concept of the survival of the fittest: meet them and one sees the very best that evolution has done with homo sapiens over the millennia.
Orpington is famous for much more than the man who debunked creationism. I shall not dwell too long on the “Buff Orpington” chicken, admired by poultry breeders for its gentle contours, colourful plumage and succulent breast meat; suffice it to say that they are easy layers, go broody very often and make great mothers. Would it be too much to expect the local Tesco superstore to stock it and support the breeders of that fine bird? I shall keep the House informed of my progress, but my office called Tesco this morning, and it does not currently stock that chicken.
If Orpington’s contribution to science is beyond question, its place in the footnotes, if perhaps not the chapter headings, of British political history is no less assured. In 1954, for example, the constituency almost snuffed out the career of a young Mrs Thatcher. Having fought unwinnable seats in neighbouring Dartford, she sought the nomination for Orpington. In The Croft Tearoom in St Mary Cray, one of the more hard-on-its-luck areas of the constituency, can be found a fine photograph of the young Mrs Thatcher buying her daily milk from a horse and cart in an attempt to impress her local credentials on selectors. She was unsuccessful. Bitterly disappointed at how leading local Tories reckoned her candidacy incompatible with her role as a mother of twins, she wrote to central office to say that she was abandoning all thought of Parliament for many years. Needless to say, British politics would have been very different had she not relented.
I shall not dwell on counterfactuals, but one thing is certain: Orpington would not have gone on to become the totemic seat for the Liberals that it did in 1962 had Mrs Thatcher become our MP. The man who defeated her for the nomination resigned unexpectedly, triggering a famous by-election. A good Balliol man by the name of Eric Lubbock, representing the Liberals, scored an historic victory by overturning a very substantial Conservative majority and chalking up a Liberal gain in an area far away from his party’s traditional heartlands in the west country and the Celtic fringe. The birth of Orpington man sparked a revival that marked the end of the Macmillan era and made Orpington a permanent fixture in Liberal folklore.
I come back to the present and the subject of this debate. The scale of the Conservative victory on 6 May, with its 60% share of the vote, was a resounding endorsement of the Conservative party’s economic programme. The priority now is to achieve an accelerated reduction of the £156 billion deficit and it is one that I wholeheartedly support, as I support the creative and compassionate ways that I know the Government will use to go about that difficult task. The £6 billion of cuts already announced is barely a start in the process. I look forward to the emergency Budget on 22 June and the public consultations on the role of the state, which will follow.
As one who recently spent four years working in one of the fastest growing parts of Asia, with a ringside seat on the emerging economy that is India, I am fully aware of the challenges that globalisation presents to the British economy. I would like to use the time that I have in Parliament to help this country and Orpington constituency meet those challenges.